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Population
- 1. Population Sources: The World Food Problem Leathers and Foster, 2004 World Hunger 12 Myths Lappe Collins and Rossett, 1998 Hesketh et al., New England J. Med 353: 1171-1176 Wikipedia http://www.lastfirst.net/images/product/R004548.jpg
- 2. Thomas Malthus • 1798: Essay on the Principle of Population as it Affects the Future Improvement of Society – Population growth tends to outstrip the means of subsistence – Food increases arithmetically while population increases geometrically – The poor can be kept alive by charity, but since they would then propagate, this is cruelty in disguise.
- 3. Paul Ehrlich • 1968: The Population Bomb • “The battle to feed all of humanity is over. • In the 1970s the world will undergo famines— • Hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death”
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- 7. Demographic Transition • First, high birth rates and high death rates • Then, improved living standards, health cause death rates to drop • Finally, low birth rates match low death rates
- 8. Demographic Transition • 1750-1950: Occurred in developed countries • 1950: Began to see death rates drop in developing countries • 2050: Projected completion of transition
- 9. Demographic Transition • Example: U.S. History – When agrarian society, people had many kids • Source of security, labor
- 10. Demographic Transition • Example: U.S. History – When became industrial, fewer kids/family • Lowered infant mortality • No need to rely on children’s labor • More opportunities for women • Happened without birth control
- 13. Global Fertility • 1950’s: 5 children/woman • 1970’s: 4 children/woman • 1990’s: 2.8 children/woman • Replacement: 2.1 children/woman
- 14. Global Population • Population growth rate is slowing down and will eventually stop • Dip in 1960 due to 30 million deaths in China – Great Leap Forward Famine
- 15. World Population Projection •Estimated to peak at 11 billion in 2200
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- 17. AIDS • 40 million people infected with HIV – Many will die of AIDS • Will not greatly impact global population growth • Will Impact some countries • Losses by 2020: – Uganda 45% – Rwanda 35% – Malawi 30% Malawi AIDS orphans
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- 19. Food Production perCapita • Food Production per capita is rising worldwide – But falling in Africa • Food production is keeping up with population – Otherwise food prices would have risen – Food prices have dropped
- 20. Food Production inSub-Saharan Africa • Food Production in Sub Saharan Africa not keeping up with population
- 21. Per Capita Productionof Calories, Fat, Protein
- 22. Progressivist View • Things are good and getting better: – Worldwide standard of living – Education – Health – Trade • People are an asset. • Population causes shortages which raise prices, – stimulating entrepreneurs to satisfy the shortages. • We end up better off as a Julian Simon result.
- 23. Progressivist View • Two important indicators of progress and improvement in life are – Decreased Infant Mortality – Increased Life Expectancy
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- 25. Revisionist View • Adoption and spread of agriculture have trapped humanity in a spiral of – Population growth – Ecological destruction – Social tyranny. • The problem stems from the anti-ecological culture (religion) of agricultural societies – humans are above and not part of nature (global ecosystem) – and therefore can destroy it at will. Civilization is based on Agriculture
- 26. Daniel Quinn •1992: Ishmael – Although population is 5.5 billion, we produce enough food for 6.0 billion even though millions are starving – Because we produce enough food for 6 billion, in 3 or 4 years there will be 6 billion people. – Then, even though millions are starving, we will produce enough for 6.5 billion. – Thus in another 3-4 years there will be 6.5 billion – To halt this process, must face the fact that increasing food production doesn’t feed the hungry, it only fuels the population explosion.
- 27. Social Equity View • Problems of – poverty – overpopulation – ecological destruction • Are due to – inequity of wealth – unfairness of economic and social systems Frances Moore Lappe, Food First http://www.mediathatmattersfest.org/mtm05/img/frances_moore_lappe.jpg
- 28. If the worldwere 100 people (2005) • 51 male – 49 female • 60 Asians, – 14 Africans, – 12 Europeans, – 8 Latin Americans, – 5 from USA and Canada – 1 from the South Pacific • 82 nonwhite – 18 white • 67 non-Christian – 33 be Christian (Source: Family Care Foundation)
- 29. If the worldwere 100 people (2005) • 80 live in substandard housing • 67 unable to read • 50 malnourished – 1 dying of starvation • 33 without access to safe water supply • 39 lack access to improved sanitation • 24 have no electricity – Most of the 76 with electricity use it only for light at night (Source: Family Care Foundation)
- 30. If the worldwere 100 people (2005) • 7 have access to the internet • 1 has a college education • 1 has HIV • 2 near birth – 1 near death • 5 control 32% of the entire world’s wealth – All 5 U.S. citizens • 33 attempt to live on 3% of global income (Source: Family Care Foundation)
- 31. Both hunger andhigh fertility occur when: • Poverty is extreme and widespread • Society denies security and opportunity to people • Infant mortality is high • Most people can’t get land, jobs, education, health care, old age security • Few opportunities for women outside of home Bangladesh mother
- 32. Children • Labor force • Chance for a job in city • Security – major investment – rational choice
- 33. Women’s Education • Powerful predictor of lower fertility • Reflects opportunity in society
- 34. Male Poverty • Low self-esteem • Dominate women and children • Thus more children
- 35. Examples • Sri Lanka: – lower price rice • led to population decline • Cuba: – low prices for food and health care • reduced population rate from 4.7 to 1.6 • Kerala, India: – lower price rice, kerosene • 1/3 birth rate of average in India • Literacy for women is 2.5 times average in India Kerala, India
- 36. Family Planning • Birth Control is responsible for only 15-20% total fertility decline – Thus population growth cannot be brought down simply by family planning or contraception – but it can speed the decline • Contraceptive use in Developing World has increased – 9% in 1960 – 60% in late 1990s IUD: Intra Uterine • Demographic Transition requires Device improved – Health – Social Security – Education
- 37. Sterilization • Encouraged by Western donors for developing countries – Quotas are set – Incentives are used • Cash, roads, transportation, latrines • For hungry, choices are limited • 1/3 of married women in India and China are sterilized Indian woman
- 38. Puerto Rico: LaOperacion • U. S. seized in 1898 • Sugar companies set up vast plantations • Small farmers evicted • By 1925, 2% of population owned 80% of land, 70% of population landless’ • Unemployment termed “overpopulation” by U.S. • By 1940’s light manufacturing moved in attracted to cheap labor, low taxes
- 39. Puerto Rico: LaOperacion • Young women were key to labor force • Problem was pregnancy • Result: massive sterilization program • Women coerced into sterilization without being told it was irreversible • By 1968, 1/3 of women childbearing age were sterilized. • Emigration and sterilization resulted in population drop with no increase in standard of living.
- 40. Bangladesh • Intensive Family Planning in Matlab region • Contraceptive use doubled • Resulted in reduced birth rate • Cost was very high: $120/birth averted – This is 120% of per capita gross domestic product – Not replicable on a national scale
- 41. China • 1950s, 60s Under Mao – children encouraged – Fertility rate: 5.9 children/woman • 1970-1979 new policy to cope with overpopulation – “one is good, 2 is ok, 3 is too many” – “late, long, few” • Have fewer children later • greater spacing between • Fertility dropped steeply to 2.9 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/asia_pac/02/china_party_co ngress/china_ruling_party/key_people_events/html/default.stm
- 42. Fertility decline inChina
- 43. China One ChildPolicy • 1979 “one child” policy enacted – For urban areas • Material benefits – if have 1 child • Social & official pressure – If have more than 1 child • 71% Chinese are rural – Multiple children are common • Fertility rate has declined – But also declined in other Asian countries without coersion • Human rights violation?
- 44. Birth Control Methodsin China
- 45. Skewed sex ratio • Sex ratio at birth (2000) – 117:100 male:female • Maternal Hepatitus B may account for much of the skewing • Boys preferred – Men care for parents in old age – Women join husband’s family • Care for husband’s parents • Selective abortion of girls – Use ultrasound to determine sex – If first child is a girl, want second to be a boy – Illegal but suspected • Female infanticide suspected – before ultrasound