Presented by Gebregziabher Gebreyohannes ((HE, Dr.) Minister for Livestock Resources Development) at the MOA/ILRI Livestock Master Plan Project Steering Committee Meeting, Addis Ababa, 5 December 2014

1. Livestock Master Plan: Roadmaps for Growth
and Transformation (2015-2020)
Gebregziabher Gebreyohannes (HE, Dr.)
Minister for Livestock Resources Development
MOA/ILRI Livestock Master Plan Project Steering Committee
Meeting, Addis Ababa, 5 December 2014

2. Rationale for the LMP
• Livestock sector development has been a priority in all Government of
Ethiopia (GOE) plans for the last two decades
• Livestock is a priority in the current Growth and Transformation Plan I (GTP
I), running thru 2015
• GOE understands the need for greater funding of the development of the
sector to realize its full potential
• There has been no clear strategy and action plan for the development of the
livestock sector -- what could be achieved over the medium-term (5 years)
and long-term (15 to 20 years)
• Ethiopia made several attempts to develop a Livestock Master Plan (LMP).
This current effort began in 2013 with the use of LSIPT – Livestock Sector
Investment and Policy Toolkit
• This effort was successful due to strong support from the Livestock State
Ministry

3. The process of creating the LSA & LMP
• Accomplishing the livestock sector analysis (LSA) required that an
appropriate analytical tool be identified to develop the LMP, and then
learning how to use these tools.
• The LMP team, made up of MOA and ILRI staff, identified the Livestock
Sector Investment and Policy Toolkit (LSIPT) as an appropriate set of tools
to carry out the sector analysis for the LMP
• LSIPT came at the right time for Ethiopia – when a Livestock State Ministry
(LSM) was created and a Livestock State Minister appointed
• The LSM needed to set targets and develop a livestock plan for the
Growth & Transformation Plan II (GTP II)
• A Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) was set up by the Livestock State
Minister and the TAC met regularly to give advice on the project activities
and outputs and oversee progress

4. The process of creating the LMP (cont’d)
• Development of the Ethiopia LMP has been a consultative process of
getting expert advice and stakeholder buy-in and ownership –
ensure agreement on approach, data, parameters, and results
• 3 major production typology zones and 40 production systems (to
ensure poverty reduction) were agreed upon with the Ministry of
Agriculture
• Over 30 specialists were consulted on data and parameters for
livestock commodities, value chains and cross-cutting issues
• Based on expert experience and available literature, the key
livestock performance parameters were collected
• A comprehensive national data base and baseline (depicting the
current situation) were thus established for livestock planning
• The analyses covered 6 value chains , and 4 cross-cutting issues

5. Livestock Sector Analysis (LSA) Production Zones

6. Production and productivity
parameters of cattle by production zone
Lowland Grazing (LG) Mixed Rainfall
Deficient Sufficient
(MRD)
Mixed Rainfall
Sufficient (MRS)
Lowland Grazing (LG)
Dairy Specialized
AP PS PM S M S M S M
Herd size
9 7 18 2 6 3 9 5 100
56 56 58 57 58 60 65 85 90
Parturition rate (%) 14 12 10 11 12 12 8 8 5
Mortality rate
female calves (%)
6 7 6 7 7 7 6 1 1
Mortality rate
female sub adults
(%)
4 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3
Mortality rate
Female adult (%)
15 16 16 12 16 15 10 6 6
Mortality rate male
calves (%)
9 12 12 8 8 8 6 1 1
Mortality rate male
sub adults (%)
7 9 9 5 6 4 4 3 3
Mortality rate male
adults (%)
11.5 10.9 11.9 11.9 11.4 11.5 10.2 32.6 35.5
Herd size
0.3 0.2 1.5 0.0 1.0 1.9 5.0 8.4 6.0
LSIPT application
process ….

7. MOA livestock production zones and sub-
zones in Ethiopia
Livestock Production System
Lowland Grazing (LG-L) Highland Mixed (MR-H)
LGAP LGP HMR-MD Medium
Small
C C
C-F
Specialized (SP)
C: Cattle
Cam: Camel
S: Sheep
S-F: Sheep fattening
Be: Bees
G:Goats
EQ: Equines
D: Dairy
C-F: Cattle
fattening
P: Backyard
Poultry
L: Layers
Br: Broilers
S
Small
L
Br
Be
MediumSmallMedium
D
C
G
HMR-MS
Small
S
CC
S
Cam
Cam
C
Small
S
Cam
G G
G
S
G
S
C-F
D
S-F
P
P
Be
P P
Be Be
P
Be
Be
P
Be
LSIPT application
process ….

8. How LSIPT analysis was used to do the
Ethiopia Sector Analysis
Livestock Sector Model
• The data and parameters were presented to the directors of the 3
MOA Livestock Sector Ministry (LSM) departments (Animal Health;
Production and Feed; and Pastoralism) for verification
• Also carried out regular communication with the livestock experts
to review the production parameters
• The LMP team (MOA and ILRI specialists) entered the “best bet”
data in the LSIPT Excel modules, and counter-checked data
reliability on the basis of past performance and analytical results
obtained
• Results were periodically presented to the TAC and the LSM for
comments. Assistance and guidance from the LSM and TAC was
regular and continuous. Periodic re-analysis and revision of results
was done based on LSM and TAC feedback

9. What does LSA mean for the development of
the sector?
• LSA is a living document that guides:
–Livestock sector development for the
coming 15 years and beyond
–Basis for setting targets for GTP II and
future 5-year plans
–Foundation for the LMP

10. Framework of the LMP roadmaps -- based
on LSA results
• Baseline for 2015
• 5-year GTP II development targets (2015-2020)
• Challenges and strategies
• Ex-ante testing of LMP interventions to achieve targets
• Investment requirements (policies and intervantions)
• LMP impacts – Return on Investment (ROI), GDP,
production-consumption balance
• Activities timeline and sequencing
• Complimentary interventions and success
requirements

11. LMP major Outcomes
• Built the livestock sector data base, baseline situation and projections
• Results from the LSA include production, technological performance
of the sector, its contribution to the household and national
economy, current status (2013), future potential (2028) to reduce
poverty, and economic growth
• Analysis of value chain development and its contribution to GDP
• Technology and investment analysis (IRR, NPV) for different scenarios
• Analysis of cross-cutting issues (Feed, Health, Genetics, Policy)
• Analysis of institutional and policy constraints and solutions
• GTP II (2016-2020) projections and targets
• Created the foundation for institutionalization of the planning
capacity of the Livestock State Ministry (LSM)

12. Key LMP Interventions – Red Meat/Milk
• Health – Rationalize public and private veterinary services, with
privatization wherever if is feasible
• Health -- Increase productivity of local breed animals in all
production typology zones through health interventions to reduce
young and adult stock mortality (YASM), treat other critical diseases
like FMD (through vaccinations), and parasite control (endo and
ecto-parasites)
• Feed – Improve grazing lands (both pasture (LG) and range(MRS &
MRD)) for more and better feed production
• Feed – Policy changes to make land available for investors for
forage seed and forage production, and promote production of
supplemental concentrates by flour and oil mills
• Support exports through promotion activities, animal identification
and traceability, export quarantine stations, disease surveillance,
export abattoir monitoring, etc.

13. The Six Key LMP Commodity Value Chains
and cross-cutting activities
Cow dairy
1.Improved Family Dairy systems (IFD) in MRS and MRD dairy belts
(peri-urban)
2.Specialized Dairy Production (SP Dairy)
Red meat (and milk) from cattle, sheep, goats and camels
3. Improved Traditional Red Meat-Milk (ITMM) systems in all
production zones (MRS, MRD and LG)
4. Specialized Beef Cattle Feedlots (SPF)
Poultry
•Improved Family Poultry (IFP) in all production zones (MRS, MRD and
LG Agro-pastoral)
•Specialized Poultry (SPP) – Broilers and Layers
Cross-cutting activities within each value chain
3.Animal Health
4.Animal Feed
5.Animal Genetics
6.Policy

14. Interventions
• Crossbreeding (AI
with synchronization
• Contracting out
forage production
• Rationalization of
public privet vet
service
• Reduce YASM
(vaccine and parasite
control)
• Improve pasture and
range land
productivity
• Support expansion
of commercial dairy
• Promote concentrate
production (flour
and oil mills)
• Promote dairy
processing
Total
investment
(in MRS)
• 146 m ETB =
Improving the
capacity of AI centers
and services, training
of AI technicians
• 214 = Reduce YASM
• 252 m ETB = Pasture
land improvement
• 215 m ETB for forage
production and trade
promotion
• 250 m ETB for wheat
flour mill
establishment
• 760 m ETB for
establishment of milk
processing plant
Outcomes
(production,
GDP
contribution)
• 93% increase
in milk
production (4
B to 7.9 B
liters)
• Cow milk GDP
contribution
increased from
28 B to 52.9 B
ETB.
• 2.5 B liter
surplus
Investment
returns
•IRR in MRS =
24-33% in
•IRR for
investment in
commercial
dairy = 29-
43%
•IRR in MRD =
1% (<10%)
Priorities
• Breed
improvement
in MRS was
recommended
but not in
MRD, except
in peri-urban
areas and dairy
belts
Cow dairy

15. Impacts of Investments in Improved Family Dairy (IFD) in MRS
and Specialized Dairy (SPD):
Internal Rates of Return (IRR) over 20-Years , 2013-2028
33
24
0
10
20
30
20-YearIRR(%)
Small Medium
Panel A: Improved Family Dairy
29
43
0
10
20
30
40
Small Medium
Panel B: Specialized Dairy

16. In MRD, AI & Synch
worked in per-urban
areas and milk sheds
In MRS AI & Synch
works everywhere
•IRR =33%
•Milk production
increases 8 times
•GDP contribution
increases 10 times
Impacts at national and regional levels of AI &
Synchronization
In LG, AI & Synch
Not tested for
breed
improvement
Overall AI & Synch Results:
•93% increase in national milk
production (4 B to 7.9 B liters)
•Cow milk contribution to GDP
increases from 28 B to 52.9 B ETB.
•2.5 B liter surplus

17. Similar results for red meat and poultry
y:
• Red meat (and milk) from cattle, sheep, goat and
camel
– Improved Traditional Red Meat-Milk (ITMM) very
profitable in all production zones (MRS, MRD and LG)
– Specialized Beef Cattle Feedlots (SPF) very profitable
• Poultry
– Improved Family Poultry (IFP) very profitable in ALL
production zones (MRS, MRD, LG Agro-pastoral)
– Specialized Poultry (SPP) very profitable – Broilers and
Layers

18. Impacts of Investments in Improved Traditional Red
Meat/Milk Production (ITMM): Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
over 20-Years, 2013-2028
17
38
23
0
10
20
30
40
20-YearIRR(%)
MRS MRD LG
Note: 10% discount rate was used. Based on LSA results.

19. Impacts of Investments in Specialized Cattle Feedlot (SPF):
Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR), 2013-2028
9.0
1.3
0
2
4
6
8
10
20-YearBenefitCostRatio
Small Medium

20. Impacts of Investments in Improved Family Poultry (IFP),
Specialized Poultry (SPP-Broilers and Layers): 20-Year Benefit
Cost Ratio (BCR), 2013-2028
10.5
1.54 1.68
0
2
4
6
8
10
20-YearBCR
IFP SPP-Broiler SPP-Layer

21. LSIPT results changed MoA opinion on domestic and
export potential of livestock & products
Panel A: Red meat
C
PWO
PW
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2013 2018 2023 2028
Panel B: Chicken meat
PW
C
PWO
0
200
400
600
2013 2018 2023 2028
Panel C: All meat
PWO
PW
C
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2013 2018 2023 2028
Panel D: All milk
PWO
C
PW
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2013 2018 2023 2028
Panel E: Eggs
PW
C
PWO0
5000
10000
15000
2013 2018 2023 2028
Source: Based on LSIPT results.
Consumption
Production with intervention
Production without interventiion
Legend:
PW=
C=
PWO=
Production-Consumption
Balance

22. GDP contribution from LMP interventions for
milk, red meat, and chicken meat and eggs
(2020)
74,064
82,489
10,054
5,577
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Red meat (ETB
million)
All milk (ETB
million)
Egg (ETB million) Chicken meat (ETB
million)

23. Public and Private investment shares by major value chains
(ETB Millions)

24. What do LSA/LMP results mean for the GTP II
Government livestock development policy goals need to avoid
significant trade-offs:
•If invest in all LMP interventions GOE can eliminate poverty in
25% of livestock keeping households (>11 million people)
•Focus on poultry development to achieve better food security,
enable red meat exports, and lower GHG emissions
•Combination of cattle and poultry can lower domestic meat
prices, while increasing exports and foreign exchange earnings
•Focus on dairy development to achieve food security in domestic
markets and also increase export earnings

25. What LSA/LMP results mean for the PRIVATE
SECTOR role in GTP II
In conclusion, success in these interventions during GTP II will
require full participation of the private sector:
•Value adding processing by Private Sector crucial for success
•Need to attract and enable very substantial private investment
in livestock product production and processing.
•Need dramatic improvement of the investment environment
(far less bureaucracy in setting up all types and aspects of
businesses).
•Need far more attractive incentives private investment --
subsidized land leasing rates, low interest loans, tax holidays

26. MoA Reaction
• The Agriculture Minister said “GOE will adopt and
implement the LMP
• Livestock State Ministry owns the LSA, GTP II and
LMP developed using LSIPT
• Results taken as realistic, fact-based to inform
investment decisions (based on GOE criteria: poverty
reduction, food and nutrition security, or economic
growth, or combination of all)
• Committed to expand the use of the tool in academy
and research

27. Other benefits of LSIPT and LMP
• Baseline data established
– Livestock national herd numbers and infrastructure
– Livestock production parameters, and VC analysis
– Livestock contribution of GDP and poverty
reduction
– Present policies, strategies and legislations
– Consensus on production and VC parameters
reached among experts
• Traceable results and methodology

28. LMP Research Priorities
Priority research areas to implement the LMP include:
• Selection to improve indigenous red meat animals and on-farm
record keeping
• Better cross-breeding of dairy cattle and small ruminants
• Improved family poultry and camel improvement, and how to
manage/improve rangelands in pastoral areas
• Developing new poultry lines using indigenous and exotic breeds
• Reduction in animal traction and mechanization
• Ensuring that research has impact - learning how to scale up
technologies
• Impact assessment to support better policy decisions
• Improving seed and feed options for livestock producers
• How to improve livestock and livelihoods data, esp. in pastoral areas

29. The Core LMP Team – MOA, EIAR & ILRI