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Livestock Master Plan (LMP): Roadmaps for the Ethiopia Growth and
Transformation Plan (GTP II - 2015-2020)
The Livestock S...
Livestock Sector Analysis (LSA) &
Livestock Master Plan (LMP) Process
• Making a LMP required quantitative sector analysis...
LSA pre-test of possible interventions against
indicators of GOE Goals for GTP I & II
Potential LMP intervention impacts w...
The Six Key LMP Commodity Value Chains
and cross-cutting activities
Cow dairy
1.Improved Family Dairy systems (IFD) in MRS...
Impacts of Investments in Improved Family Dairy (IFD) in MRS
and Specialized Dairy (SPD):
Internal Rates of Return (IRR) o...
In MRD, AI & Synch
worked in per-urban
areas and milk sheds
In MRS AI & Synch
works everywhere
•IRR =33%
•Milk production
...
Similar results for red meat and poultry
y:
• Red meat (and milk) from cattle, sheep, goat and
camel
– Improved Traditiona...
Annual farm-level increases in income due to proposed
investment interventions in family cattle, sheep, goats and camels
E...
LSA results changed MoA opinion on domestic and
export potential of livestock & products
Panel A: Red meat
C
PWO
PW
500
10...
Framework of the LMP roadmaps -- based
on LSA results
• Baseline for 2015
• 5-year GTP II development targets (2015-2020)
...
GDP contribution from LMP interventions for
milk, red meat, and chicken meat and eggs
(2020)
74,064
82,489
10,054
5,577
-
...
Percentage increase in Red Meat production and CO2e emissions
from interventions with “business as usual” (BAU or LMP) and...
GHG (CO2e ) emissions from BAU (without intervention) and with
interventions with LMP and CRGE offtake rates (in Mt ton)
What do LMP results mean for the GTP II
Government livestock development policy goals need to
avoid significant trade-offs...
Public (including donors) and Private investment
shares by major value chains (ETB Millions)
What is needed for the PRIVATE SECTOR to play its
investment role in GTP II
Success in these interventions during GTP II w...
LMP Research Priorities
Priority research areas to implement the LMP include:
• Selection to improve indigenous red meat a...
The Core LMP Team – MOA, EIAR & ILRI
MoA Reaction to LMP
• The Agriculture Minister said “GOE will adopt and
implement the LMP”
• Livestock State Ministry owns...
Red Meat production from BAU (no investment) and with
intervention - with LMP and CRGE offtake rates (in tons)
Tons
Percentage increase in all meat production and CO2e emission
from interventions with BAU (LMP) and CRGE offtake rates (%)
...
Percentage increase in Chicken Meat and Eggs production and
CO2e emission from interventions with BAU (LMP) and CRGE
offta...
Percentage increase in cow milk production and CO2e
emission from interventions with CRGE and BAU offtake rates
(%)
Percen...
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Livestock Master Plan (LMP): Roadmaps for the Ethiopia Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP II—2015-2020)

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Presented by Barry Shapiro at the Rural Economic Development and Food Security Sector Working Group Broader Platform meeting, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 2 July 2015

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Livestock Master Plan (LMP): Roadmaps for the Ethiopia Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP II—2015-2020)

  1. 1. Livestock Master Plan (LMP): Roadmaps for the Ethiopia Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP II - 2015-2020) The Livestock State Ministry, MOA and ILRI Barry Shapiro, ILRI Rural Economic Development and Food Security Sector Working Group Broader Platform Meeting, Ministry of Agriculture, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 2 July 2015
  2. 2. Livestock Sector Analysis (LSA) & Livestock Master Plan (LMP) Process • Making a LMP required quantitative sector analysis – creating a sector model for long-term livestock sector analysis (LSA) • Over 50 specialists were consulted on data and parameters for animal productivity, value chains and cross-cutting issues • A national data base and baseline (depicting the current situation – 2013 and 2015) were created • Potential interventions were identified– combined policy and technology -- and tested ex-ante over the long-term (15-year) and 5 year planning • Foresight scenario analysis was done on the interventions A Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) was also set up and met regularly to give advice on the project activities and outputs and oversee progress – created buy-in and ownership
  3. 3. LSA pre-test of possible interventions against indicators of GOE Goals for GTP I & II Potential LMP intervention impacts were assessed against Ethiopian Government development objectives for GTP II -- measured by livestock development indicators using the livestock sector model built on a herd model. The GTP objectives are the following: •Reducing poverty (household income) •Achieving food security (production-consumption balance) •Contributing to economic growth (GDP) •Contributing to exports (foreign exchange earnings) •Contributing to climatic sustainability (GHG emissions) Development of the Ethiopia LSA was a fully consultative process to get expert advice and stakeholder ownership – ensure agreement on approach, data, parameters, and results
  4. 4. The Six Key LMP Commodity Value Chains and cross-cutting activities Cow dairy 1.Improved Family Dairy systems (IFD) in MRS and MRD dairy belts (peri-urban) 2.Specialized Dairy Production (SP Dairy) Red meat (and milk) from cattle, sheep, goats and camels 3. Improved Family Red Meat-Milk (ITMM) systems in all production zones (MRS, MRD and LG) 4. Specialized Beef Cattle Feedlots (SPF) Poultry •Improved Family Poultry (IFP) in all production zones (MRS, MRD and LG Agro-pastoral) •Specialized Poultry (SPP) – Broilers and Layers Cross-cutting activities within each value chain 3.Animal Health 4.Animal Feed 5.Animal Genetics 6.Policy
  5. 5. Impacts of Investments in Improved Family Dairy (IFD) in MRS and Specialized Dairy (SPD): Internal Rates of Return (IRR) over 20-Years , 2013-2028 33 24 0 10 20 30 20-YearIRR(%) Small Medium Panel A: Improved Family Dairy 29 43 0 10 20 30 40 Small Medium Panel B: Specialized Dairy
  6. 6. In MRD, AI & Synch worked in per-urban areas and milk sheds In MRS AI & Synch works everywhere •IRR =33% •Milk production increases 8 times •GDP contribution increases 10 times Impacts at national and regional levels of AI & Synchronization In LG, AI & Synch Not right for breed improvement Overall AI & Synch Results: •93% increase in national milk production (4 B to 7.9 B liters) •Cow milk contribution to GDP increases from 28 B to 52.9 B ETB. •2.5 B liter surplus
  7. 7. Similar results for red meat and poultry y: • Red meat (and milk) from cattle, sheep, goat and camel – Improved Traditional Red Meat-Milk (ITMM) very profitable in all production zones (MRS, MRD and LG) – Specialized Beef Cattle Feedlots (SPF) very profitable • Poultry – Improved Family Poultry (IFP) very profitable in ALL production zones (MRS, MRD, LG Agro-pastoral) – Specialized Poultry (SPP) very profitable – Broilers and Layers
  8. 8. Annual farm-level increases in income due to proposed investment interventions in family cattle, sheep, goats and camels ET Birr
  9. 9. LSA results changed MoA opinion on domestic and export potential of livestock & products Panel A: Red meat C PWO PW 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2013 2018 2023 2028 Panel B: Chicken meat PW C PWO 0 200 400 600 2013 2018 2023 2028 Panel C: All meat PWO PW C 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2013 2018 2023 2028 Panel D: All milk PWO C PW 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 2013 2018 2023 2028 Panel E: Eggs PW C PWO0 5000 10000 15000 2013 2018 2023 2028 Source: Based on LSIPT results. Consumption Production with intervention Production without interventiion Legend: PW= C= PWO= Production-Consumption Balance
  10. 10. Framework of the LMP roadmaps -- based on LSA results • Baseline for 2015 • 5-year GTP II development targets (2015-2020) • Challenges and strategies • Ex-ante testing of LMP interventions to achieve targets • LMP impacts – Return on Investment (ROI), GDP, production-consumption balance • Investment requirements (financial and human resources) • Activities timeline and sequencing • Complimentary success requirements (policy)
  11. 11. GDP contribution from LMP interventions for milk, red meat, and chicken meat and eggs (2020) 74,064 82,489 10,054 5,577 - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 Red meat (ETB million) All milk (ETB million) Egg (ETB million) Chicken meat (ETB million)
  12. 12. Percentage increase in Red Meat production and CO2e emissions from interventions with “business as usual” (BAU or LMP) and CRGE offtake rates (%) Percent (%)
  13. 13. GHG (CO2e ) emissions from BAU (without intervention) and with interventions with LMP and CRGE offtake rates (in Mt ton)
  14. 14. What do LMP results mean for the GTP II Government livestock development policy goals need to avoid significant trade-offs: •If invest in all LMP interventions GOE could eliminate poverty in 2.35 million livestock keeping households •Focus on poultry development to achieve better food security, enable red meat exports, and lower GHG emissions •Combination of cattle and poultry can lower domestic meat prices, while increasing exports and foreign exchange earnings •Focus on dairy development to achieve food security in domestic markets and also increase export earnings
  15. 15. Public (including donors) and Private investment shares by major value chains (ETB Millions)
  16. 16. What is needed for the PRIVATE SECTOR to play its investment role in GTP II Success in these interventions during GTP II will require full participation of the private sector: •Value adding processing by Private Sector is crucial for success •Need to attract and enable very substantial private investment in livestock product production and processing •Need dramatic improvement in the investment environment (streamline investment process for agribusinesses) •Land made available for livestock investments – production, processing, growing animal feed, etc. •Need more attractive incentives private investment -- subsidized land leasing rates, low interest loans, tax holidays
  17. 17. LMP Research Priorities Priority research areas to implement the LMP include: • Selection to improve indigenous red meat animals and on-farm record keeping • Better cross-breeding of dairy cattle and small ruminants • Improved family poultry and camel improvement • How to manage/improve rangelands in pastoral areas • Developing new poultry lines using indigenous and exotic breeds • How to reduce animal traction and mechanization • Ensuring that research has impact - learning how to scale up technologies • Impact assessment to support better policy decisions • Improving seed and feed options for livestock producers • How to improve livestock and livelihoods data, esp. in pastoral areas
  18. 18. The Core LMP Team – MOA, EIAR & ILRI
  19. 19. MoA Reaction to LMP • The Agriculture Minister said “GOE will adopt and implement the LMP” • Livestock State Ministry owns the LSA, GTP II and LMP • Results taken as realistic, fact-based to inform investment decisions (based on GOE criteria: poverty reduction, food and nutrition security, or economic growth, or combination of all) • Committed to expand the use of the tool in planning, policy analysis and research
  20. 20. Red Meat production from BAU (no investment) and with intervention - with LMP and CRGE offtake rates (in tons) Tons
  21. 21. Percentage increase in all meat production and CO2e emission from interventions with BAU (LMP) and CRGE offtake rates (%) Percent (%)
  22. 22. Percentage increase in Chicken Meat and Eggs production and CO2e emission from interventions with BAU (LMP) and CRGE offtake rates (%) Percent (%)
  23. 23. Percentage increase in cow milk production and CO2e emission from interventions with CRGE and BAU offtake rates (%) Percent (%)
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Presented by Barry Shapiro at the Rural Economic Development and Food Security Sector Working Group Broader Platform meeting, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 2 July 2015

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