Presented by Abdou Fall at the 9th Conference of Ministers Responsible for Livestock/Animal Resources in Africa, Abidjan, 16-19 April 2013

1. Informing targeted adaptation and mitigation
investments for long term livestock sector
development in Africa
Abdou Fall
9th
Conference of Ministers Responsible for
Livestock/Animal Resources in Africa, Abidjan, 16-19
April 2013

2. Outline
Background
Impact of climate change on livestock systems
Impact of livestock on climate change
Approaches to adaptation
Approaches to mitigation
Conclusions

3. – Livestock production systems in Africa are changing
rapidly and there are large numbers of people to feed with
shrinking natural resource base
– Lots of drivers of future changes of livestock systems:
– Population/ Urbanization
– Growth in demand
– Competition for natural resources
– Climate change: warmer and more variable
Background

4. Background
IPCC (2007), Climate change projections, Africa
 Very likely increase in temperature, above global
means;
 Rainfall likely to decrease in Northern Africa and
increase in East Africa; inconsistent projections in the
Sahel (drier parts and wetter parts)
 Extreme events (very likely dry spells and flooding)

5. Background
Regions in Africa that will be most affected by climate change
are places with large numbers of vulnerable poor people that
depend on livestock as a key livelihood strategy
ILRI has worked in the past:
– To identify how are these regions likely to change
– To identify the magnitudes of the expected impacts on
livestock systems
This has informed the design and pilot testing of targeted
adaptation an mitigation approaches framed in relation to
vulnerability and risk management.
5

6. Why is climate change so important to poor
countries?
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
year
percentage
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
rainfall variation around the mean
GDP growth
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
year
percentage
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
rainfall variation around the mean
GDP growth
de Jong (2005), World Bank (2005)
Ethiopia: Rainfall Variability
and Growth in Gross
Domestic Product (GDP)

7. Impact of climate change on livestock and livestock
systems
• Will have important impacts at system level
which are poorly understood
• Specific livestock system components that will
be affected include:
• Feed and water availability
• Disease distribution
• Adaptation and survival of livestock

8. Climate change impacts on livestock and livestock
systems
Feed quantity, quality:
Changes in land use systems, primary
productivity, species composition and
quality of the materials
• Tradeoffs – conservation agriculture, feed, fuel
• In semi-arid areas – importance of feed from
food crop failures

9. National
Production
Mixed rainfed
temperate
Mixed rainfed
humid
Mixed rainfed
arid
2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050
Burundi 9 9 14 18 -2 -9 - -
Kenya 15 18 33 46 -5 -10 -1 -8
Rwanda 11 15 13 19 5 4 1 3
Tanzania -3 -8 7 9 -2 -6 -5 -11
Uganda -2 -9 5 3 -5 -13 -1 -6
There may be winners as well as losers …
Simulated percentage pasture production changes to 2030 and 2050, by
country and system
Mean of 4 combinations of GCM and emissions scenarios
Thornton et al. (2010)
Winners
Losers

10. Animal Diseases and Climate Change
•Climate change effect on disease is
complex and difficult to predict.
•Climate is an important but not the only
driver of change in disease distribution
(population, intensification of systems)
Climate change impacts on livestock and livestock
systems

11. Tsetse Distribution and Climate Change
Model predictions for to changes in tsetse
distribution to 2030 from current distributions for
morsitans (left), fusca (centre) and palpalis (right)
tsetse groups as a result of changes in length of
growing period
No change: Absent
Presence to Absence
Absence to Presence
No change: Present
McDermott et al. (2001), revised 2005

12. Impact of climate change on livestock and livestock
systems
12
Heat stress:
Higher impact in high altitudes (reduced productivity);
Lower impact in low altitudes where livestock ecotypes
have developed fitness traits to adapt to hot/dry or
hot/humid ecosystems
Biodiversity :
Loss of high value breeds/ ecotypes and their unique
genes ( fitness traits).

13. Impact of Livestock on Climate change
A food chain perspective of GHG emissions
(Livestock Long Shadow),
Feed production: Fertilizer, fossil fuel, land use
change, fires
Livestock rearing: Enteric ferm., manure mangt.
Post-harvest:

14.  Livestock:9- 18%
anthropogenic emissions
 80% agricultural emissions
Contributors to
climate change

15. Mapping Climate Vulnerability and Poverty in Africa

16. Changes in
growing conditions
to 2050
Climate Change Risk / Impact
Different scenarios
of the future
Biophysical
vulnerability
Social
vulnerability
14 indicators
Data reduction analysis
 4 factors, combined
into one “overall”
vulnerability indicator
Hot-spots
Hot-spots
Hot-spots of climate risk
AND vulnerability
Vulnerability

17. Highest vulnerability
quartile (4)
Second-highest vulnerability
quartile (3)
Possibly severe LGP
loss (>20% to 2050)
• Some MRA systems in
Sahel
• Mixed rainfed and
highland perennial systems
in Great Lakes region of E
Africa
• LGA systems in parts of
E Africa
• MRA, LGA systems in large parts
of Sahel
• Livestock systems and some
mixed systems in parts of E and
southern Africa
• Coastal systems in E and parts of
southern Africa
Possibly moderate LGP
loss (5-20% to 2050)
• Mixed systems in parts of
E Africa
• Coastal systems of parts of W
Africa
• Tree crop systems in parts of W
Africa
• Forest-based systems in central
Africa
• Root-based and root-mixed
systems in south central Africa
Synthesis of hot-spots
MRA, mixed rainfed arid-semairid systems LGA, rangeland arid-semiarid systems

18. 18
Adaptation approaches
Diversification of livelihood strategies: Payment of
Environmental Services in rangelands
Largest land use system
Potentially a large C sink
Could be an important income
diversification source
Difficulties in: Measuring and monitoring
C stocks; Establishment of payment
schemes; Dealing with mobile
pastoralists, non clear land use and
property rights

19. 19
Adaptation approaches
Securing livestock assets: Index Based Livestock
Insurance, IBLI
Innovative index based insurance to manage weather
related risk; drought related livestock losses)… Piloted in
Kenya and Ethiopia
•Protect productive assets of the poor
•All insured clients in a geographical area are compensated when
an external independent indicator (NDVI) that predicts rangeland
state, reaches a strike point.
Challenges to go at scale: Need for high quality data to design
and price insurance contracts; Effective demand ; Cost effective
delivery systems.

20. 20
Adaptation approaches
Responsiveness of feeding systems
•Assessment of feed resources a the national and local
levels
•‘Moving megajoules’ feed surplus to feed deficit areas
•Introduction of feed processing and storage technologies

21. Mitigation approaches
Adaptation options can also lead to mitigation and vice-
versa:
– Increasing efficiency/productivity to produce
lower GHG per unit of product (milk, meat)
through sustainable intensification:
• Improved feeding systems; Superior breeds
• Market incentives: Inputs and services provision
• Managing negative environmental externalities

22. Conclusion
 Climate change is happening but we need to act even
if the magnitude of the impacts is uncertain
 Impacts of climate change on livestock in Africa is
heterogeneous but potentially severe, especially in
arid and semi-arid areas.
 Adaptation to climate change need to be considered
in the context of other significant drivers of change
.
22

23. Conclusion
PES and IBLI are potential income
diversification and risk management options in
the face of climate change that need further
investment in Africa
If they are to be successful, both adaptation
and mitigation options will require:
– investments in terms of infrastructure (roads,
market development, development of water
resources, market information, telecom)
– Supportive policies, regulations and institutions 23

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given to ILRI.
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