Presentation by M. Herrero, P.K. Thornton, A. Notenbaert and S. Moyo to the FANRPAN Annual High Level Regional Food Security Policy Dialogue, Windhoek, Namibia, 30 August - 3 September, 2010.

1. Livestock development in a changing climate M. Herrero, P. K. Thornton, A. Notenbaert, S. Moyo Livestock and Fisheries Policies for Food Security in a Changing Climate FANRPAN Annual meeting, 30 th August – 3 rd September, 2010, Windhoek, Namibia

5. Why is climate change so important to agriculture-based countries? de Jong (2005), World Bank (2005) Ethiopia: Rainfall Variability and Growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

6. Climate change: we need to act even when there are large uncertainties!

8. But the policy frameworks have been slowly implemented Climate policy timeline 1992: Rio Treaty – establishes UNFCCC A modest proposal? N ear-term implementation of a global policy that affects all parts of everyone’s lives. Courtesy of R. Conant 2008-2012: 1 st Kyoto compliance period 2005: Kyoto into effect 2001: Marrakech accords 1997: Kyoto Protocol 1992: US Energy policy act; incl. Section 1605(b)

9. P.G. Jones CIAT Land Use Project March 2004 Temperature Random series gently rising Number of high events increases Number of low events decreases Comfort Zone

10. Region Dec-Jan Jun-Aug GCM consistency in regional precipitation projections for 2090-2099 (SRES A1B scenario). IPCC, 2007 Large decrease (>20%) Inconsistent Southern Africa Inconsistent Small increase (5-20%) East Africa Inconsistent Inconsistent West Africa Inconsistent Small decrease (5-20%) Sahara

11. What are the impacts of climate change on livestock systems?

12. Change in Length of Growing Period (%) to 2090s: Ensemble mean, +5 ° C (18 GCMs, 3 SRES scenarios) Coefficient of variation of the change in LGP to 2090s: Ensemble mean, +5 ° C Thornton, Jones, Ericksen, Challinor (2010)

14. Economic impacts of increased drought frequencies in pastoral and agro-pastoral systems in Kenya to 2030 Herrero et al. 2010 5.6 5.9 4.1 1.8 837 1.4 458 167 5 630 Cattle numbers 2000 (million TLU) 1 Cattle numbers 2030 drought 1 in 5 years (million TLU) 1 Cattle numbers 2030 drought 1 in 3 years (million TLU) 2 Animals lost due to increased drought freq. (million TLU) 2 Cumulative milk production lost (million kg) 3 Cumulative meat production lost (million kg) 4 Value of lost animals (million $) Value of lost milk production (million $) 3 Value of lost meat production (million $) 4 Total economic losses / year (million $) value Indicator

16. Mapping Climate Vulnerability and Poverty in Africa Many people who have contributed least to climate change may suffer the greatest livelihood consequences ILRI with the African Centre for Technology Studies (ACTS) and The Energy Resources Institute (TERI)

18. Adaptation to climate change in livestock systems

22. 0 º 20 º -20 º 0 º 20 º 40 º From croppers to livestock keepers Areas where cropping of an indicator cereal may become unviable between now and 2050 and where farmers may have to rely more on livestock as a livelihood strategy Jones & Thornton (2008)

24. Mitigation

26. Can we untap the potential for carbon sequestration in rangeland systems? Potential for carbon sequestration in rangelands (Conant and Paustian 2002) Largest land use system Potentially a large C sink Could be an important income diversification source Difficulties in: Measuring and monitoring C stocks Establishment of payment schemes Dealing with mobile pastoralists

28. Thank you