Climate change poses risks to global food security by reducing agricultural productivity and increasing weather variability. The effects are already seen in reduced wheat and maize yields in many regions. Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia are particularly vulnerable hotspots. Projections show further crop yield losses after 2030 if temperatures rise over 2°C, posing large risks to food availability and access. Adaptation is needed through use of existing technologies, managing climate risks, exploiting co-benefits of practices that both adapt and mitigate greenhouse gases, identifying benefits of climate change, and addressing poverty and governance challenges.

1. Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security:
What the recent science says?
Pramod Aggarwal
CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and
Food Security (CCAFS)
International Water Management Institute

2. IPCC-AR5: Global surface temperature change for the
end of the 21st century is likely to exceed 1.5oC
• Warming in the climate
system is unequivocal
• Temperature increase by
2100 to exceed 1.5oC
• Large variability in
temperature and
precipitation changes
• Heat waves and heavy
precipitation events to
increase
Source: IPCC-AR5 2014

3. The effects of climate change are already evident in
several regions of the world (medium-high confidence)
Climate change has
negatively affected
wheat and maize
yields for many
regions. Effects on
rice and soybean
yield have been
smaller
Source: IPCC-AR5 2014

4. Assessing vulnerability of Indian agriculture to climate
change: Controlled environment facilities at IARI, Delhi
4

5. Significant crop yield losses from the 2030s
• Negative impacts of > 2oC in low latitudes; some (temperate) locations may
benefit
• After 2050 the risk of more severe impacts in tropics increases-
• increased inter-annual variability, price rise, nutritional quality; limited adaptation options
• Global increases of ~4C, combined with increasing food demand, would pose
large risks to food security globally and regionally
Source: IPCC-AR5 2014

6. Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia are
a major hotspot of vulnerability
(Source: Erickson et al., 2011)
Increased droughts, reduced surface and ground water will exacerbate
threats in already vulnerable and food-insecure dry sub-tropics

7. Projected impacts of climate change on
agriculture in India
• CO2 increases yields of most C3 crops by 10-20%.
• Increasing temperature would reduce agricultural
production. A 1oC increase in temperature may reduce yields of
some crops by 0-7%. Much higher losses at higher temperatures.
• Increased production variability due droughts,
floods, and heat events
• New but unexplored opportunities in agriculture.
• Large implications for intra- and inter-national
trade.
7

8. Adapting Indian Agriculture to
Climate Change :
Five Key action points

9. Adapting Indian Agriculture to
Climate Change :
1: Make full use of untapped potential of
currently available technologies

10. Adapting to climate change:
Make full use of untapped potential of currently available technologies
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Wheat Rice
Grain yield, kg/ha
Potential yield
Attainable yield
Measured yield
10
Invest in management of land and water resources,
and input delivery and market linkage mechanisms

11. Adapting Indian Agriculture to
Climate Change :
2: Manage current climatic risks for
poverty alleviation and for equitable
development

12. Several options are available for
managing climatic risks
1. Weather–based
agro-advisories
reach > 3 million
farmers in India
2. Crop insurance
covers 30 million
farmers in India
3. Climate ready
varieties in maize
and rice
Forecasting
From satellite to
cell phone
Risk
insurance
Rapid payments
so assets are
protected
Technologies;
practices,
and
institutions
That cope with
extremes

13. Engaging farming communities in monitoring,
reporting and verification of crop insurance
 PPP model
 Compensate farmers on the
basis of actual crop loss at
farm level (zero basis risk)
 Empowering the community
to manage the program
 Use of technology for
transparency, trust and to
mitigate the risk of moral
hazard
 Quick settlement of claims
 Financial literacy
 Value added services like
agro-advisories

14. Integrated solutions
leading to higher income,
resilience, adaptation
and mitigation:
CCAFS’s Climate - Smart Villages

15. Adapting Indian Agriculture to
Climate Change :
3: Exploit large mitigation co-benefits of
adaptation options

16. GHG emissions from India
Enteric
fermentation,
211429, 60%
Rice
cultivation,
74360, 21%
Manure
management
, 5087, 1%
Agricultural
soils, 57810,
16%
Crop residue
burning,
6912, 2%
Energy
57.8%
Agriculture
17.6%
Wastes
3.0%
Industry
21.7%

17. Adaptation options with large
co-benefits in mitigation
Paddy
– Increase WUE: alternate wetting and drying in irrigated
regions; direct seeding
Soils
– Increase N fertilizer use efficiency: placement and timing,
inhibitors
– Carbon sequestration: conservation agriculture, agro-forestry
– Land reclamation
Livestock
– Management of livestock population; feed management

18. Adapting Indian Agriculture to
Climate Change :
4: Identify and exploit potential
benefits of climate change

19. Identify and exploit potential benefits of
climate change
• Change in temperature zones
• Increase in rainfall
• Shorter crop durations
• Shorter life cycle of fish

20. Adapting Indian Agriculture to
Climate Change :
5: Address poverty, governance,
institutions, and human capital which
limit agriculture growth even today

21. Policy innovations induced by
droughts in India
Major Policy
Interventions
Famine
Codes
Green
Revolution
and FCI
Scarcity
relief
Employ
ment
Generation
Programmes
Drought
relief
Contingency
Crop
Plan
Drought
management
Watershed
Approach
Water
management
Improved weather
forecasts and their
applications
Knowledge
management
Each round represent
death of one million people
Each round represent around
fifty million people affected
Source: ADPC/MOA
1877
Drought
Events
1965 1972 1979 1987 2002 2009

22. Despite such policy responses, climatic risks still
cause considerable loss
Key reasons
– Widespread
poverty
– Limited human
capital
– Poor
governance
including
limited
stakeholder
analysis, and
dissemination
of knowledge
Poverty (2005)
Population at $2/day or less
Green 1-10, Yellow 11-50, Red > 50
Human capital
literacy rate

23. Conclusion-
Climate Change, Agriculture and food Security:
1. Climate change impacts food security.
2. Increasing ozone concentration.
3. Increasing weather variability.
4. Vulnerability limits adaptation in developing countries.
5. Need for right incentives, investments, institutions and
policies.

24. Increased investment
in climate-smart
agriculture will
ensure global peace,
equity and prosperity
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