This presentation was made by Dr. Robert B. Zougmoré, CCAFS Africa Program Leader, at the WASCAL Science Symposium, 19-21 June 2018, Tang Palace Hotel, Accra, Ghana

1. Climate change and food
security in West Africa:
Dr Robert Zougmoré
Africa Program Leader CCAFS
WASCAL Science Symposium, 19-21 June 2018, Tang Palace Hotel, Accra, Ghana
Demand for climate and environmental services

2. Outline
1. Food security in the context of climate change in
West Africa: constraints and challenges
2. Priority needs for climate and environmental
services
a. More attention to planning and prioritization
b. Managing climate risks: Climate Information Services
c. Integrated solutions: the case of CSVs
d. Mitigation-adaptation win-win solutions
e. Digital solutions and PPP
f. Science-policy interactions
3. Conclusion

3. Irrigable Land 8.9 million ha
Arable Land 236 million ha
10.3 % exploited in
West Africa
10 % developed
Significant
pastoral and
fisheries resources
However, West
African
economies are
especially
vulnerable to
climate change
as a result of
their heavy
dependence on
rainfed
agriculture.
Natural Resource Endowment in WA
(After CORAF/WECARD)

4. Climate change influences all
sectors
MAIL
ANDP
Wheater
/ Climate
Security
Transport
Health
D.R.R.
Energy
Agriculture
(29%)
Politics
Water
After Ousmane Ndiaye, ANACIM

5. In order to meet global
food demand, we will
need 60-70% more food
Food security at risk
Africa population:
2.4 billion by 2050
Pessimistic: All West African
countries’ population will
more than double by
2050, except Cape Verde
This has major implications for
land cover change

6. Adaptation to climate change:
Rehabilitation, Preservation

7. To 2090, taking 18
climate models
Four degree rise
Thornton et al. (2010) Proc. National Academy Science
>20% loss
5-20% loss
No change
5-20% gain
>20% gain
Length of growing
period (%)
Length of growing season
is likely to decline..

8. Agriculture sector must reduce methane and nitrous oxide
emissions by 1 Gigatonne per year by 2030 to stay within
the 2°C limit
Current
technologies
perhaps can only
achieve 20-40%
of that
Mitigation challenge
Wollenberg et al., 2016

9. Of the 41 African countries
that signed Paris Agreement:
• 72% explicitly included
agriculture in their
mitigation target
Agriculture
mentioned
72%
Economy-wide
target
21%
Not mentioned
7%
Prominence of agriculture
in the NDCs: Africa
• 8 countries quantified agriculture-specific
targets, all against BAU: Benin, Chad, Comoros,
Côte d’Ivoire, Chad, Gambia, Mali, Nigeria
• For example: Ethiopia, 90 MtCO2e (48.6%)
reduction against BAU in 2030, conditional

10. Vermeulen et al. 2012
Annual Review of Environment and Resources
0.0
500.0
1000.0
1500.0
2000.0
2500.0
3000.0
3500.0
Other, largely
burning
Rice cultivation
Manure
management
Enteric
fermentation
Agricultural soils
Indirect emissions
Inconvenient truths: Emissions
through agricultural activity

11. I. Planning and prioritization:
Levels of adaptation
Days Decades
BenefitfromAdaptation
Incremental
Adaptation
• Varieties, planting times, spacing
• Stubble, water, nutrient and canopy
management etc.
Systems
Adaptation
• Climate change-ready crops
• Climate-sensitive precision-agric
• Diversification and risk management
• Transformation from land use
or distribution change
• New products such as
ecosystem services
Transformational
Adaptation
From Rickards and Howden (2012)

12. Policy driver
Short-term
priorities
Long-term
priorities
DominantForce
State
Actors
Governments
facilitate short-
term gain: cash,
carbon and
calories
A slow and
painful transition
to sustainable
states
Non-state
Actors
Ungoverned, quick
and chaotic
development;
dealing with crises
at the expense of
investment
A struggle
between civil
society and the
private sector that
is ultimately
productive
West Africa socio-economic
scenarios to 2050
C3: Cash,
Carbon,
Calories
Self-
determination
Save yourself Civil society
to the rescue?
Developed with ECOWAS,
CORAF, CILSS, ROPPA,
AGRHYMET and countries’
ministries, civil society,
the private sector &
academia.
Quantified and
combined with climate
scenarios
To be used as a tool to
guide policy
development and
investment

13. • New scenarios made by the group, which fit perfectly
for Burkina Faso and the plan for the rural sector
• Scenarios used in a detailed review of the plan (PNSR)
• Result in a multi-dimensional set of recommendations
for the plan that are easily integrated
Reviewing the plan for the rural
sector in Burkina Faso with scenarios

14. CSA Prioritization Framework
Filters for selecting CSA investment portfolios
*Analysis of
context variables
Long list of
CSA practices
CSAPF Pilots: Colombia, Guatemala, Mali, Vietnam
*Ex-ante assessment
based on CSA
indicators
*Stakeholder
workshop
Ranked short
list of priorities
*Economic analysis
– assess costs and
benefits
Ranked short
list based on
CBA
*Integrated analysis
of opportunities &
constraints
* Stakeholder
workshop
CSA investment
portfolios

15. Lessons:
Process is as important
as the content
• Discussions create space for
collaborative integrated
planning between users
• Donors (EU) modifying
calls based on results –
other potential applicants
linked from the beginning
Mali: CSA at the Regional level
Science-
Policy forums
(AEDD, DNA)
Regional
governments
NGOs (C-
GOZA, Sahel
Eco)
Donors (EU,
Swedish
Embassy)
CONTEXT
POTENTIALUSERS

16. Provide baseline data on
existing actions and scale up
opportunities for CSA
Highlight entry points for CSA
programs and investments
Country CSA Profiles
Vulnerability & Impacts + Aptitude
Inventory to guide
actions on CSA
Situation Analysis
Risks and enabling conditions

17. II. Managing climate-related risks:
getting climate information to farmers

18. • Temperature rise of ≈0.6-0.7 °C since late 70's
• Largely higher than the global increase
• Sea level rise of 18 cm during the 20th century
I
The problem: Climate variability & change
(After AGRHYMET)

19. Seasonal forecast
 crop variety
 varieties
Onset forecast
 farm preparation
 optimum planting
Nowcasting
 flooding saving life (thunder)
Daily forecast
 use of fertilizer / pesticide
Ten-day forecast
 weeding, field work
Updating seasonal forecast
 second cropping
Ten-day forecast
 optimum harvesting
period
 rain during dry season
Before During cropping season Maturity/end season
In Senegal, CCAFS scientists collaborated with the Meteorological
Agency to develop downscaled seasonal and weather forecasts

20. Climate
information
Seasonal forecast Weather forecast Nowcasting
Local working Group
(Issue EWS)
Farmers
Agriculture
Livestock
Local
authority
Extensions
services Forestry
Rural
radio
Seed
growers
Rural radio Text messaging Social gatherings Bulletin
Stakeholders:
experts&decisionmakers
Community
Pest Disease
Control
NGOs
Climate information up-scaled across Senegal

21. Impact of climate information
services in Senegal
• Through 82 rural radios,
mobile phone SMS, seasonal
climate forecasts
disseminated at national level
to potentially reaching 7,4
millions rural people
• Climate information is now
considered as an
agricultural input in Senegal

22. III. Integrated solutions:

23. Components considered in
a CSV AR4D Site
The CSV AR4D implementation:
Address the need for proven and effective CSA options in a
real-life setting and facilitates co-development of scaling
mechanisms towards landscapes, subnational and national levels

24. Local planning based on climate
scenarios

25. Niger climate-smart village (Kampa Zarma)
Crop varieties (millet, sorghum, cowpea, vegetables)
CarbonSequestrationandsoil
fertilityreplenishment,
Agroforestry
Climate Information
Services
Kampa Zarma
CSV
Capacity building
Waterharvesting
techniques

27. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Stemdensity(numberindividuals/ha)
Continuous coppicing FMNR 5-10 years
FMNR 10-15 years FMNR >=15
a a
b
b
IV. Mitigation-Adaptation win-win solutions:
Farmer Managed Natural Regeneration: an agroforestry CSA option
Selection and protection of useful tree species
Crops beneath trees
widespread enthusiasm & application of FMNR in the Sahel

28. Soil carbon and nitrogen status as influenced
by Farmer Managed Natural Regeneration
Activities:
 Farmland tree biodiversity inventory
 Soil sampling and analysis
0-5 cm 5-15 cm 15-30 cm 30-50 cm 50-85 cm
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
SoilOrganicCarbon(mgg-1
)
Soil depth intervals (cm)
Continuous coppicing
FMNR 5-10years
FMNR 10-15years
FMNR >=15years
0-5 cm 5-15 cm 15-30 cm 30-50 cm 50-85 cm
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
TotalNitrogen(mgg-1
)
Soil depth intervals (cm)
Continuous coppicing
FMNR 5-10years
FMNR 10-15years
FMNR >=15years
Implementation of FMNR lead to
an increase in SOM levels
compared to sites with yearly
coppicing but effect is limited to
top soil layers (i.e. 0-20 cm)
1
2 Duration of FMNR has
limited effect on SOM
Same trend as for total Nitrogen

29.  Sequestration
of carbon in
soil and trees
NIGER: Bringing back the Sahel’s ‘underground forest’
5 million ha of land restored,
over 200 million trees re-established
 Reduces
drought
impacts
 Additional half a
million tonnes of
grain per year

30. V. Digital solutions and public-private partnerships
for downscaled information dissemination
• Climate services delivered through mobile phones (e.g. ESOKO)
• CSA technologies, agricultural inputs, market prices
• Creating jobs for youths and reducing migrations
• Empowering women to add more value to their income
generating activities

31. Valorisation des Produits Forestiers
Non Ligneux pour améliorer la
résilience et la sécurité alimentaire des
populations vulnérables de Daga-
Birame (Sénégal)
• Création d’une micro-entreprise de transformation de
poudre de baobab pour les femmes
• Formation des femmes à la transformation du produit
et à la gestion financière de l’entreprise
• Génération de revenus pour le groupement de femmes
Empowering women to add more value to
their productive assets

32. VI. Getting science and policy actors together for informed
national development plans and policies
National and district science-policy dialogue platforms for
improved science-policy interactions:
• Met agency
• Agriculture
• Environment
• Planning
• Research
• FOs
• NGOs, Private sector
• Policy makers
• Media
• ………
 To synergise regularly

33. VI. Getting science and policy actors together for informed
national development plans and policies
National science-policy dialogue platforms:
• What national priorities for climate change actions in
agricultureKnowledge sharing among national stakeholders
• Analysis and technical backstopping for effective climate change
mainstreaming (e.g. Country CSA profiles)
• Influencing policy decision making for actionnable initiatives at
national and regional levels (NAIPs, NDCs, Etc.)
CSV National platform Regional CSA alliance

34. Conclusion
More:
• Effective
• Outcome-orientated
• Focused
• Different
Our R4D
Our future
R4D
….need to transform our agricultural systems
….need to transform R4D

35. What are we targeting
through our research?
Activities Products Short-term
outcome
Long-term
outcome
Impacts
Define the theory of change from the beginning!
Contacts: Robert Zougmoré: r.zougmore@cgiar.org, ICRISAT Bamako, Mali