Production Planning and control: Forecasting techniques – causal and time series models, moving average,
exponential smoothing, trend and seasonality; aggregate production planning; master production scheduling; materials
requirement planning (MRP) and MRP‐II; routing, scheduling and priority dispatching, concept of JIT manufacturing
System.
Project Management: Project network analysis, CPM, PERT and Project crashing.
FMEA is a systematic method for evaluating potential failures in a design, manufacturing or assembly process. It involves analyzing possible failures, identifying their causes and effects, and prioritizing issues based on severity, occurrence, and detection. The process results in a risk priority number to determine which failures should be addressed first. FMEA is widely used in industries like automotive, aerospace, healthcare to prevent failures and improve quality and safety.
Introduction to production planning and controlMohanKirthik
Production planning and control (PPC) aims to efficiently utilize resources like materials, labor, and facilities through planning, coordinating, and controlling production activities. PPC involves production planning to determine resource needs and schedules, as well as production control to implement plans and ensure quality. Key objectives of PPC include maximizing resource utilization, maintaining inventory control and production flexibility. PPC involves pre-planning, planning, and control phases to transform raw materials into finished goods according to plans. It encompasses functions like materials planning, scheduling, expediting, and evaluation.
The document discusses shop floor control in manufacturing. It covers key concepts like loading, scheduling, dispatching, and monitoring in shop floor control. Loading involves checking resource availability and assigning work orders. Scheduling develops detailed production schedules using techniques like forward/backward scheduling and priority rules. Dispatching implements schedules based on real-time shop floor status. Monitoring tracks work progress, throughput, quality and provides performance feedback using tools like dashboards and Gantt charts. Overall, the document provides an overview of the main functions and processes involved in shop floor control systems that plan and control work flow on the manufacturing plant floor.
Production planning, routing, scheduling, Activating, MonitoringDarshan Shah
The document discusses various aspects of production planning including planning, routing, scheduling, activating, and monitoring. It provides definitions and explanations of each term. Planning involves deciding in advance what to do, how to do it, when to do it and who is to do it. Routing determines the most advantageous path for a product to follow from raw materials to finished goods. Scheduling fixes the time and date for each operation. Activating starts the production processes by releasing orders. Monitoring reports daily progress and investigates deviations from plans.
The document discusses various topics related to production planning and control, including demand forecasting, aggregate production planning, scheduling, workforce planning, materials requirement planning, capacity planning, production control using just-in-time, and shop-floor control. The objective of production planning and control is to make appropriate decisions around resource acquisition, utilization, and allocation given constraints. This includes determining workforce levels, production lot sizes, overtime assignments, and production sequencing.
Definition, types of corrective maintenance, steps and cycle;
Measures of corrective maintenance are: Mean Corrective Maintenance Time , Median Active Corrective Maintenance Time, Maximum Active Corrective Maintenance Time.
Then different models : a system that can either be in up (operating) or down (failed) state; a system that can either be operating normally or failed in two mutually exclusive failure modes; a system that can either be operating normally, operating in degradation mode, or failed completely; a two identical-unit redundant (parallel) system. At least one unit must operate normally for system success.
Introduction to Production Planning and control.PraveenManickam2
This document provides an introduction to production planning and control. It discusses key concepts like production planning determining resources needed for future production. Production control reviews progress and ensures plans are followed. The document outlines objectives of production planning like determining needed facilities and layout. It also describes different types of production systems and factors considered in production planning like volume, nature of operations, and relationships between planning and control phases.
FMEA is a systematic method for evaluating potential failures in a design, manufacturing or assembly process. It involves analyzing possible failures, identifying their causes and effects, and prioritizing issues based on severity, occurrence, and detection. The process results in a risk priority number to determine which failures should be addressed first. FMEA is widely used in industries like automotive, aerospace, healthcare to prevent failures and improve quality and safety.
Introduction to production planning and controlMohanKirthik
Production planning and control (PPC) aims to efficiently utilize resources like materials, labor, and facilities through planning, coordinating, and controlling production activities. PPC involves production planning to determine resource needs and schedules, as well as production control to implement plans and ensure quality. Key objectives of PPC include maximizing resource utilization, maintaining inventory control and production flexibility. PPC involves pre-planning, planning, and control phases to transform raw materials into finished goods according to plans. It encompasses functions like materials planning, scheduling, expediting, and evaluation.
The document discusses shop floor control in manufacturing. It covers key concepts like loading, scheduling, dispatching, and monitoring in shop floor control. Loading involves checking resource availability and assigning work orders. Scheduling develops detailed production schedules using techniques like forward/backward scheduling and priority rules. Dispatching implements schedules based on real-time shop floor status. Monitoring tracks work progress, throughput, quality and provides performance feedback using tools like dashboards and Gantt charts. Overall, the document provides an overview of the main functions and processes involved in shop floor control systems that plan and control work flow on the manufacturing plant floor.
Production planning, routing, scheduling, Activating, MonitoringDarshan Shah
The document discusses various aspects of production planning including planning, routing, scheduling, activating, and monitoring. It provides definitions and explanations of each term. Planning involves deciding in advance what to do, how to do it, when to do it and who is to do it. Routing determines the most advantageous path for a product to follow from raw materials to finished goods. Scheduling fixes the time and date for each operation. Activating starts the production processes by releasing orders. Monitoring reports daily progress and investigates deviations from plans.
The document discusses various topics related to production planning and control, including demand forecasting, aggregate production planning, scheduling, workforce planning, materials requirement planning, capacity planning, production control using just-in-time, and shop-floor control. The objective of production planning and control is to make appropriate decisions around resource acquisition, utilization, and allocation given constraints. This includes determining workforce levels, production lot sizes, overtime assignments, and production sequencing.
Definition, types of corrective maintenance, steps and cycle;
Measures of corrective maintenance are: Mean Corrective Maintenance Time , Median Active Corrective Maintenance Time, Maximum Active Corrective Maintenance Time.
Then different models : a system that can either be in up (operating) or down (failed) state; a system that can either be operating normally or failed in two mutually exclusive failure modes; a system that can either be operating normally, operating in degradation mode, or failed completely; a two identical-unit redundant (parallel) system. At least one unit must operate normally for system success.
Introduction to Production Planning and control.PraveenManickam2
This document provides an introduction to production planning and control. It discusses key concepts like production planning determining resources needed for future production. Production control reviews progress and ensures plans are followed. The document outlines objectives of production planning like determining needed facilities and layout. It also describes different types of production systems and factors considered in production planning like volume, nature of operations, and relationships between planning and control phases.
X-bar and R control charts are used to monitor the mean and variation of a process based on samples taken over time. An initial series of samples is used to estimate the mean and standard deviation of the process and establish control limits for subsequent X-bar and R charts. These control charts can then be used to monitor the process mean and variation and detect any points that are outside the control limits, indicating an out-of-control process that requires investigation. The document provides steps for constructing X-bar and R control charts using sample data and calculating control limits based on the sample mean and range.
8. chapter 7 work study (time and motion study)sundar sivam
The document discusses work study, which aims to improve work methods and establish standard times for work. It is comprised of two techniques: method study, which examines existing and proposed ways of doing work to develop easier and more effective methods; and work measurement, which establishes time standards for jobs. There is a close relationship between method study, which focuses on reducing work content and establishing the best method, and work measurement, which investigates ineffective time and establishes time standards. Productivity, work study techniques, method study procedures, and factors influencing productivity are also covered at a high level.
Recorded webinar: http://bit.ly/1uVqMJC
Subscribe: http://www.ksmartin.com/subscribe
Purchase the book: http://www.bit.ly/VSM
These are slides from a webinar done with APICS Heartland on the topic of Value Stream Mapping.
This webinar covers:
• How to use value stream mapping as an organizational transformation & leadership alignment tool
• How to plan for a value stream mapping activity
• The mechanics of mapping, including key metrics
for office/service/knowledge work
• How to create an actionable Value Stream Transformation Plan
Production Planning and Control
Objective of PPC
Classification/Functions of PPC
Levels of PPC
Factors determining Production Planning Procedures
Production Planning System
Factors Determining PC procedures
Time study is a work measurement technique that determines the time for a qualified worker to complete a task at a defined level of performance. It involves observing and recording the time required by a worker to perform individual tasks in their regular work. The objectives of time study include increasing productivity, setting labor standards, and determining basic and standard times. It is used to analyze elements of a job, set performance standards, and improve work methods and processes.
This document discusses production systems and cellular manufacturing. It defines production systems as transforming inputs into finished products using people, materials, and machines. Production systems are classified as job shop, batch, or mass production depending on product customization and volume. Cellular manufacturing organizes equipment into machine cells that specialize in specific part families. This improves production flow and flexibility while reducing space and inventory requirements. The document also covers group technology, how to identify part families, and provides a case study comparing traditional and cellular layouts that demonstrates reduced flow times using the latter approach.
The document provides an overview of production planning and control (PPC). It discusses key aspects of PPC including importance, levels, factors affecting PPC, objectives, and the PPC process which involves planning, routing, scheduling, loading, dispatching, follow up, inspection, and corrective actions. Planning determines production targets and collects information. Routing defines the sequence of operations. Scheduling prescribes when operations will be executed using techniques like Gantt charts, CPM, and PERT.
The document discusses Process Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (PFMEA) which analyzes manufacturing and assembly processes to identify potential failure modes caused by process deficiencies. A PFMEA includes a process flow diagram, failure analysis matrix, and process control plan. It assumes the design is valid, analyzes failure causes and effects, and recommends actions to eliminate root causes and detect failures. Benefits include improved processes, performance monitoring, and prioritizing resources to ensure process improvements benefit customers.
This document discusses control charts for attributes. It defines attributes as quality characteristics that conform or do not conform to specifications. Attribute data is used when measurements are not possible or not made due to time or cost constraints. The document outlines different types of attribute control charts including P charts for proportions of nonconforming units, NP charts, C charts for counts of nonconformities, and U charts. Examples are provided for calculating control limits for each of these charts. Advantages of attribute control charts are that they allow for quick summaries by classifying products as acceptable or unacceptable and are more easily understood by managers than other quality control procedures.
This document discusses statistical quality control and control charts. It defines statistical quality control as using statistics to monitor manufacturing processes and determine if variation is due to chance or assignable causes. The document outlines two types of control charts: variables control charts that measure continuous data like weight or temperature, and attributes control charts that count discrete data like defects. Specific variable charts discussed include X-bar and R charts, while attribute charts include P, C, U, and NP charts. Guidelines are provided on when and how to implement control charts to monitor processes and identify sources of variation.
This document discusses various production scheduling techniques. It begins by explaining the functions of production control and scheduling such as releasing orders, assigning work, sequencing jobs, and monitoring capacity and priority status. It then covers topics like machine loading, loading charts, objectives of loading, and data requirements for production scheduling. Finally, it summarizes different scheduling tools and techniques including master scheduling, aggregate planning, material requirements planning, Gantt charts, perpetual scheduling, Johnson's rule for scheduling jobs on multiple machines, batch production scheduling, and line of balance techniques.
The document discusses various concepts related to scheduling operations management including objectives, loading, sequencing, monitoring, and advanced planning systems. It provides examples of sequencing rules like FCFS, DDATE, and SPT and compares their performance on a sample problem. Guidelines for selecting rules are outlined. Input/output control and Gantt charts are discussed as monitoring tools. Finally, it briefly covers employee scheduling heuristics.
Total Productive Maintenance (TPM) is a lean tool that involves employees in maintaining equipment to improve production through reduced breakdowns and defects. TPM takes a holistic approach to maintenance through a team-based process. The objectives of TPM are to maximize production effectiveness and organize the shop floor to prevent losses. The eight pillars of TPM include autonomous maintenance, planned maintenance, quality maintenance, and training and education. Implementing TPM benefits companies by increasing equipment uptime and plant capacity while lowering costs.
The worker and machine process chart (Man-machine chart) shows the exact time relationship between the working cycle of a person and the operating cycle of a machine at a specific workstation. It can be used to detect idle time on machines and workers, optimize work distribution, and decide the appropriate number of workers. The example shows a man-machine chart for the current and improved methods of a casting production process. The improved method reduces the cycle time from 2 minutes to 1.4 minutes by decreasing the idle times for both the worker from 0.8 to 0.2 minutes and the machine from 1.2 to 0.6 minutes.
Chapter 1 introduction to manufacturing systemN. A. Sutisna
This document discusses data communication and networking in manufacturing systems. It begins with an introduction to manufacturing systems and describes their key components such as facilities, manufacturing systems, production types, quantities and varieties. It then discusses manufacturing support systems and how they integrate functions like business, product design, planning and production control. The document provides an overview of considerations for setting up an effective manufacturing system through its network and data communication structures.
SMED (Single-Minute Exchange of Dies) is a system for reducing equipment changeover time in manufacturing. The essence of the SMED system is to convert as many changeover steps as possible to “external” (performed while the equipment is running), and to simplify and streamline the remaining steps.
SMED – It is a method of reducing time in total equipment changeover.
SMED is the term used to represent the Single Minute Exchange of Die or setup time that can be counted in a single digit of minutes. Its goal is to reduce the setup time from hours down to less than 10 minutes
It provides a rapid and efficient way of converting a manufacturing process from running the current product to running the next product.
This document provides an overview of Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA). FMEA is a systematic method to identify and prevent product and process failures before they occur. It involves reviewing components and processes to understand potential failures, effects, and causes. Key steps include determining severity, occurrence, detection ratings and calculating a Risk Priority Number. FMEA is widely used in industries like aerospace, automotive and healthcare to improve quality and safety. The document outlines the FMEA process and terms, provides examples, and discusses advantages like improved reliability and customer satisfaction.
This document discusses different types of manufacturing processes including conversion, fabrication, assembly, and testing. It also describes common process flow structures such as job shops, batch processing, assembly lines, and continuous flow. Process flow design involves mapping the specific steps that raw materials and parts follow through a plant. Key aspects of process design include assembly charts, process flow charts, product-process matrices, and breakeven analysis. The document concludes with an overview of operations technologies including hardware, software, and how technologies can support services.
Objectives
To understand Weibull distribution
To be able to use Weibull plot for failure time analysis and
diagnosis
To be able to use software to do data analysis
Organization
Distribution model
Parameter estimation
Regression analysis
IMPROVEMENT IN PROCESS INDUSTRIES BY USING WORK STUDY METHODS: A CASE STUDYIAEME Publication
The globalization of the Indian economy has faced a great challenge to the Indian small industries in respect of productivity, quality, cost, delivery etc. TO achieve success in the global market it is required fundamental improvement in the way of production in small process industries. The internal manufacturing process and supporting infrastructure should be such that it can complete successful global market with better flexibility and delivery.
In this paper a case study of a small process industry, some changes in the process has been suggested using time study method which lead to reduction in process time, labour cost and production cost.
This document discusses operations management and forecasting. It explains that operations management deals with designing and managing processes, products, services and supply chains to deliver goods and services customers want. Forecasting helps managers reduce uncertainty by predicting future demand to match supply. The document then discusses various forecasting methods including qualitative judgmental methods and quantitative mathematical modeling methods. It covers short, medium and long-range forecasting as well as different time series and causal modeling techniques.
The document discusses various concepts related to operations management. It defines production management and operations management, and differentiates between the two. It also describes different types of production systems such as job shop production, batch production, mass production, continuous production and intermittent production. The document further discusses concepts like master production scheduling, aggregate planning, capacity planning, demand forecasting techniques and various decisions involved in production management.
X-bar and R control charts are used to monitor the mean and variation of a process based on samples taken over time. An initial series of samples is used to estimate the mean and standard deviation of the process and establish control limits for subsequent X-bar and R charts. These control charts can then be used to monitor the process mean and variation and detect any points that are outside the control limits, indicating an out-of-control process that requires investigation. The document provides steps for constructing X-bar and R control charts using sample data and calculating control limits based on the sample mean and range.
8. chapter 7 work study (time and motion study)sundar sivam
The document discusses work study, which aims to improve work methods and establish standard times for work. It is comprised of two techniques: method study, which examines existing and proposed ways of doing work to develop easier and more effective methods; and work measurement, which establishes time standards for jobs. There is a close relationship between method study, which focuses on reducing work content and establishing the best method, and work measurement, which investigates ineffective time and establishes time standards. Productivity, work study techniques, method study procedures, and factors influencing productivity are also covered at a high level.
Recorded webinar: http://bit.ly/1uVqMJC
Subscribe: http://www.ksmartin.com/subscribe
Purchase the book: http://www.bit.ly/VSM
These are slides from a webinar done with APICS Heartland on the topic of Value Stream Mapping.
This webinar covers:
• How to use value stream mapping as an organizational transformation & leadership alignment tool
• How to plan for a value stream mapping activity
• The mechanics of mapping, including key metrics
for office/service/knowledge work
• How to create an actionable Value Stream Transformation Plan
Production Planning and Control
Objective of PPC
Classification/Functions of PPC
Levels of PPC
Factors determining Production Planning Procedures
Production Planning System
Factors Determining PC procedures
Time study is a work measurement technique that determines the time for a qualified worker to complete a task at a defined level of performance. It involves observing and recording the time required by a worker to perform individual tasks in their regular work. The objectives of time study include increasing productivity, setting labor standards, and determining basic and standard times. It is used to analyze elements of a job, set performance standards, and improve work methods and processes.
This document discusses production systems and cellular manufacturing. It defines production systems as transforming inputs into finished products using people, materials, and machines. Production systems are classified as job shop, batch, or mass production depending on product customization and volume. Cellular manufacturing organizes equipment into machine cells that specialize in specific part families. This improves production flow and flexibility while reducing space and inventory requirements. The document also covers group technology, how to identify part families, and provides a case study comparing traditional and cellular layouts that demonstrates reduced flow times using the latter approach.
The document provides an overview of production planning and control (PPC). It discusses key aspects of PPC including importance, levels, factors affecting PPC, objectives, and the PPC process which involves planning, routing, scheduling, loading, dispatching, follow up, inspection, and corrective actions. Planning determines production targets and collects information. Routing defines the sequence of operations. Scheduling prescribes when operations will be executed using techniques like Gantt charts, CPM, and PERT.
The document discusses Process Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (PFMEA) which analyzes manufacturing and assembly processes to identify potential failure modes caused by process deficiencies. A PFMEA includes a process flow diagram, failure analysis matrix, and process control plan. It assumes the design is valid, analyzes failure causes and effects, and recommends actions to eliminate root causes and detect failures. Benefits include improved processes, performance monitoring, and prioritizing resources to ensure process improvements benefit customers.
This document discusses control charts for attributes. It defines attributes as quality characteristics that conform or do not conform to specifications. Attribute data is used when measurements are not possible or not made due to time or cost constraints. The document outlines different types of attribute control charts including P charts for proportions of nonconforming units, NP charts, C charts for counts of nonconformities, and U charts. Examples are provided for calculating control limits for each of these charts. Advantages of attribute control charts are that they allow for quick summaries by classifying products as acceptable or unacceptable and are more easily understood by managers than other quality control procedures.
This document discusses statistical quality control and control charts. It defines statistical quality control as using statistics to monitor manufacturing processes and determine if variation is due to chance or assignable causes. The document outlines two types of control charts: variables control charts that measure continuous data like weight or temperature, and attributes control charts that count discrete data like defects. Specific variable charts discussed include X-bar and R charts, while attribute charts include P, C, U, and NP charts. Guidelines are provided on when and how to implement control charts to monitor processes and identify sources of variation.
This document discusses various production scheduling techniques. It begins by explaining the functions of production control and scheduling such as releasing orders, assigning work, sequencing jobs, and monitoring capacity and priority status. It then covers topics like machine loading, loading charts, objectives of loading, and data requirements for production scheduling. Finally, it summarizes different scheduling tools and techniques including master scheduling, aggregate planning, material requirements planning, Gantt charts, perpetual scheduling, Johnson's rule for scheduling jobs on multiple machines, batch production scheduling, and line of balance techniques.
The document discusses various concepts related to scheduling operations management including objectives, loading, sequencing, monitoring, and advanced planning systems. It provides examples of sequencing rules like FCFS, DDATE, and SPT and compares their performance on a sample problem. Guidelines for selecting rules are outlined. Input/output control and Gantt charts are discussed as monitoring tools. Finally, it briefly covers employee scheduling heuristics.
Total Productive Maintenance (TPM) is a lean tool that involves employees in maintaining equipment to improve production through reduced breakdowns and defects. TPM takes a holistic approach to maintenance through a team-based process. The objectives of TPM are to maximize production effectiveness and organize the shop floor to prevent losses. The eight pillars of TPM include autonomous maintenance, planned maintenance, quality maintenance, and training and education. Implementing TPM benefits companies by increasing equipment uptime and plant capacity while lowering costs.
The worker and machine process chart (Man-machine chart) shows the exact time relationship between the working cycle of a person and the operating cycle of a machine at a specific workstation. It can be used to detect idle time on machines and workers, optimize work distribution, and decide the appropriate number of workers. The example shows a man-machine chart for the current and improved methods of a casting production process. The improved method reduces the cycle time from 2 minutes to 1.4 minutes by decreasing the idle times for both the worker from 0.8 to 0.2 minutes and the machine from 1.2 to 0.6 minutes.
Chapter 1 introduction to manufacturing systemN. A. Sutisna
This document discusses data communication and networking in manufacturing systems. It begins with an introduction to manufacturing systems and describes their key components such as facilities, manufacturing systems, production types, quantities and varieties. It then discusses manufacturing support systems and how they integrate functions like business, product design, planning and production control. The document provides an overview of considerations for setting up an effective manufacturing system through its network and data communication structures.
SMED (Single-Minute Exchange of Dies) is a system for reducing equipment changeover time in manufacturing. The essence of the SMED system is to convert as many changeover steps as possible to “external” (performed while the equipment is running), and to simplify and streamline the remaining steps.
SMED – It is a method of reducing time in total equipment changeover.
SMED is the term used to represent the Single Minute Exchange of Die or setup time that can be counted in a single digit of minutes. Its goal is to reduce the setup time from hours down to less than 10 minutes
It provides a rapid and efficient way of converting a manufacturing process from running the current product to running the next product.
This document provides an overview of Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA). FMEA is a systematic method to identify and prevent product and process failures before they occur. It involves reviewing components and processes to understand potential failures, effects, and causes. Key steps include determining severity, occurrence, detection ratings and calculating a Risk Priority Number. FMEA is widely used in industries like aerospace, automotive and healthcare to improve quality and safety. The document outlines the FMEA process and terms, provides examples, and discusses advantages like improved reliability and customer satisfaction.
This document discusses different types of manufacturing processes including conversion, fabrication, assembly, and testing. It also describes common process flow structures such as job shops, batch processing, assembly lines, and continuous flow. Process flow design involves mapping the specific steps that raw materials and parts follow through a plant. Key aspects of process design include assembly charts, process flow charts, product-process matrices, and breakeven analysis. The document concludes with an overview of operations technologies including hardware, software, and how technologies can support services.
Objectives
To understand Weibull distribution
To be able to use Weibull plot for failure time analysis and
diagnosis
To be able to use software to do data analysis
Organization
Distribution model
Parameter estimation
Regression analysis
IMPROVEMENT IN PROCESS INDUSTRIES BY USING WORK STUDY METHODS: A CASE STUDYIAEME Publication
The globalization of the Indian economy has faced a great challenge to the Indian small industries in respect of productivity, quality, cost, delivery etc. TO achieve success in the global market it is required fundamental improvement in the way of production in small process industries. The internal manufacturing process and supporting infrastructure should be such that it can complete successful global market with better flexibility and delivery.
In this paper a case study of a small process industry, some changes in the process has been suggested using time study method which lead to reduction in process time, labour cost and production cost.
This document discusses operations management and forecasting. It explains that operations management deals with designing and managing processes, products, services and supply chains to deliver goods and services customers want. Forecasting helps managers reduce uncertainty by predicting future demand to match supply. The document then discusses various forecasting methods including qualitative judgmental methods and quantitative mathematical modeling methods. It covers short, medium and long-range forecasting as well as different time series and causal modeling techniques.
The document discusses various concepts related to operations management. It defines production management and operations management, and differentiates between the two. It also describes different types of production systems such as job shop production, batch production, mass production, continuous production and intermittent production. The document further discusses concepts like master production scheduling, aggregate planning, capacity planning, demand forecasting techniques and various decisions involved in production management.
The document discusses production planning and control. It defines production planning as determining facilities for future production. Production control takes corrective action to match planned and actual production. The document outlines objectives, levels, and factors of production planning as well as principles, objectives, and factors of production control. It describes phases of production planning and control including pre-planning, planning, and control phases. Finally, it discusses functions of production planning and control such as materials planning, methods planning, and evaluation.
Walk-Through Demand Sales Time Series ForecastingIRJET Journal
This document discusses time series forecasting for demand sales. It provides background on time series forecasting and demand forecasting. Key classical time series models for demand forecasting include ARIMA, SARIMA, and SARIMAX, which are appropriate when the data exhibits seasonality. Feature engineering techniques discussed include lag features/shifted features to represent the time series pattern, and rolling mean features based on the moving average method commonly used in time series forecasting. The document examines these techniques in the context of demand sales forecasting using an external dataset.
Interventions required to meet business objectives from Forecasting Methods,
Quantitative & Qualitative Methods,
Forecast Accuracy , Error Reduction to
CPFR
Interventions required to meet business objectives - from Forecasting Methods,
Forecast Accuracy / Error Reduction,
Integrate – Sales Forecast / Production to undertaking a CPFR
REDUCTION OF WASTAGES THROUGH PPC TECHNIQUESAsim Aslam
This document discusses production planning and control (PPC) techniques used to reduce wastage. It describes key functions of PPC like planning, routing, loading, scheduling, dispatching, and follow up. For each function, techniques are provided, such as PERT charts for routing, Gantt charts for scheduling, and control boards for follow up. The goal of using these PPC techniques is to efficiently coordinate production activities, monitor progress against plans, and eliminate bottlenecks in order to reduce wastage throughout the manufacturing process.
This document discusses production planning and capacity planning. It defines production planning as determining adequate production capacity, workforce levels, and inventory levels to meet forecasted demand. Capacity planning involves establishing, measuring, and adjusting production capacity levels using techniques like linear programming and heuristic methods. The document provides examples of production planning for a bakery with two parallel production lines.
This document provides an overview and agenda for SAP Flexible Planning. It discusses the differences between standard SOP and flexible planning, how to create sales and production plans, use forecasting tools, create planning types and macros, perform resource planning and capacity analysis, use mass processing, and transfer planning results to demand management. The key topics covered include outlining the differences between standard SOP and flexible planning, comparing actual sales, production, and inventory to forecasts, defining events to predict impacts, planning critical resources like work centers, and transferring SOP data from flexible planning to demand management.
This document provides an overview of operations management forecasting models and their applications. It defines forecasting and lists its common uses. The key components of a forecast and the forecasting process are described. Both qualitative and quantitative forecasting approaches are discussed, along with their advantages and disadvantages. Specific forecasting techniques covered include time series methods, regression methods, moving averages, exponential smoothing, and naive forecasts. Examples are provided to illustrate weighted moving averages and exponential smoothing.
This document discusses sales and operations planning, production planning hierarchies, aggregate planning, master production scheduling, and production planning and control systems. It provides details on various production planning horizons from long-range to very-short range. Examples are given to illustrate aggregate planning techniques like matching demand and level capacity strategies, and how these can be modeled in Excel or via linear programming.
The document discusses various topics related to computer aided process planning and production planning and control, including:
- Process planning and its role in CAD/CAM integration.
- Responsibilities and activities of process planning engineers such as drawing interpretation, process selection, and documentation.
- Production planning activities like aggregate production planning, master production scheduling, material requirements planning, and capacity planning.
- Production control activities including shop floor control, inventory control, and manufacturing resource planning.
The document discusses various topics related to computer aided process planning (CAPP) and production planning and control systems. It describes the key steps and responsibilities in process planning like drawing interpretation, material and process selection, setting parameters. It also discusses approaches to CAPP like retrieval and generative systems. Regarding production planning and control, it outlines activities like aggregate production planning, master production scheduling, material requirements planning, capacity planning, shop floor control and inventory control.
The document discusses production and operations management. It covers topics like production planning and control (PPC), routing decisions, master production scheduling, inventory management, and production planning techniques. PPC involves planning, operations, and control stages to achieve production objectives. Routing defines the sequence of operations and establishes the product flow path. The master production schedule specifies end products to be completed in each time period. Inventory management aims to minimize costs while meeting demand through techniques like ABC analysis.
IRJET- Overview of Forecasting TechniquesIRJET Journal
This document provides an overview of different forecasting techniques, including qualitative and quantitative methods. It discusses several qualitative techniques like the Delphi method, consumer market surveys, and jury of executive opinion. It also examines various quantitative techniques such as the moving average method, weighted moving average method, exponential smoothing, and least squares. The document serves to introduce students to common forecasting approaches and provide examples of each type of technique.
The document summarizes key concepts from Chapter 13 of the textbook on aggregate planning:
- Aggregate planning determines resource needs over 6-18 months and balances costs, customer service, operations, and workforce factors.
- Level aggregate plans maintain a constant workforce while inventory and backorders absorb demand fluctuations. Chase plans adjust capacity each period.
- The master production schedule (MPS) specifies the production quantities and timing to execute the aggregate plan while meeting capacity and customer demand.
- Developing an effective aggregate plan and MPS involves choosing a strategy, setting production rates, workforce needs, and evaluating costs, service levels, and resource usage.
1. Demand forecasting forms the basis of supply chain planning as it allows managers to plan production, transportation, and other activities in anticipation of or in response to customer demand.
2. Forecasts can use qualitative methods like expert judgment or quantitative methods like time-series analysis of historical data to predict demand trends, levels, and seasonal variations.
3. The appropriate forecasting method depends on the forecast horizon, with short-term forecasts relying more on time-series analysis, medium-term using both time-series and causal models, and long-term relying more on judgment.
Cost-Estimation-Techniques unit 2.pptxSudipBalLama
The document discusses various cost estimation techniques that can be used for engineering economic analyses and capital investments. It describes top-down and bottom-up approaches, with top-down using historical data and bottom-up breaking projects into smaller work elements. An integrated approach uses a work breakdown structure, cost/revenue structure, and estimating models. Specific techniques discussed include indexes, unit costs, factors, parametric models, and learning curves. Cost estimation is important for setting prices, determining profits, and justifying investments.
This document discusses forecasting methods for contact centers. It begins by defining forecasting and its importance for managing contact centers. It then discusses factors that determine accurate forecasting, including correlated forecasting, integrated multi-skilled approaches, sufficient historical data, and algorithms that include pattern recognition. The document proposes a system using a combination of prediction methodologies, including simple and weighted moving averages along with seasonal indices. It provides examples of how these methods can be used to generate more accurate forecasts that account for trends, events, and patterns in historical call volume data.
Production Planning and Control (Operations Management)Manu Alias
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1. G L BAJAJ GROUP OF INSTITUTIONS, MATHURA
UNIT 2 : Production Planning and
control, Project Management
By:
Mohammad Mohsin
Assistant Professor
(M.Tech., B.Tech)
2. Syllabus
Production Planning and control: Forecasting techniques – causal and time series models, moving average,
exponential smoothing, trend and seasonality; aggregate production planning; master production scheduling; materials
requirement planning (MRP) and MRP‐II; routing, scheduling and priority dispatching, concept of JIT manufacturing
System.
Project Management: Project network analysis, CPM, PERT and Project crashing.
3. Production, Planning and Control
Production planning and control may be defined as “the direction and co-ordination of the firm's
material and physical facilities towards the attainment of pre-specified production goals, in
the most efficient and economical manner”.
Production: Production is the process by which goods or services are created.
Planning: Planning means preparing the scheme in advance before the actual work is started.
Control: Control means the supervision of all the relevant operations with the help of control
mechanism that feeds back the progress of the work.
6. PPC : Process
Production, Planning & Control
Production Planning Production Control
Planning
Routing
Scheduling
Loading Corrective
Inspection
Following Up
Dispatching
7. Comparison
Production Planning Production Control
a preproduction activity.
will be in action when production activity
begins.
decides the operations which are required
for production
regulates and supervises the operations
required for production.
decides who should do work and when
ensures that each department complete its
work on schedule
shows the directions follows these directions
estimates the resources that are required
for production
makes available resources that are required
for prodcution
8. Forecasting
Forecasting is a statement about the future. It is estimating future event (variable), by casting forward past data.
Past data are systematically combined in predetermined way to obtain the estimate.
Forecasting help managers to:
Plan the system
Plan the use of system
Types of Forecasts
Economic forecasts
Technological forecasts
Demand forecasts
9. Forecasting Techniques
Qualitative methods: These types of forecasting methods are based on judgments, opinions, intuition,
emotions, or personal experiences and are subjective in nature. They do not rely on any rigorous
mathematical computations.
Quantitative methods: These types of forecasting methods are based on mathematical (quantitative)
models, and are objective in nature. They rely heavily on mathematical computations.
10. Time Series Models
Simple Mean
(Average)
Simple Moving
Average
Weighted Moving
Average
Exponential
Smoothing
Trend Projection Seasonal Indexes
Naïve
11. Naïve Forecast
Uses last period’s actual value as a forecast.
Applied to a series that exhibits seasonality or trend
Example: Forecast the order for the month of November by Naïve approach.
Month Orders Per Month Forecast
Jan 120 -
Feb 90 120
Mar 100 90
Apr 75 100
May 110 75
June 50 110
July 75 50
Aug 130 75
Sept 110 130
Oct 90 110
Nov - 90
12. Simple Moving Average
Uses an average of all past data as a forecast
Useful if we can assume that market demands will stay fairly steady over time
Moving Average = ΣDemand in previous n periods
n
Where: n = number of periods in the moving average
13. Example
Ques: Compute a three-period moving average forecast given the following demand for cars for the last five periods.
Solution: The forecast for period 6 should be:
Moving Average Forecast = 65 + 90 + 85 = 80 cars
3
If the actual demand in period 6 turns out to be 95, the moving average forecast for the period 7 would be:
Moving Average Forecast = 90 + 85 + 95 = 90 cars
3
Demand Supply
1 70
2 80
3 65
4 90
5 85
14. Weighted Moving Average
Uses an average of a specified number of the most recent observations, with each observation receiving
a different emphasis (weight).
Formula used:
Weighted Moving Average = Σ[(Weight for period n) (demand in period n)]
ΣWeights
16. Exponential Smoothing
Used to forecast sales when there is no trend in the demand for goods or services.
Weighted averaging method based on previous forecast plus a percentage (α) of the forecast error.
Next forecast = Previous forecast + α ( Actual – Previous forescast)
Where (Actual – Previous forecast) = forecast error, α is a percentage of the error.
17. Example
Use exponential smoothing model to develop a series of forecast for the following data and compute:
[Actual - Forecast] = Error for each period, Use a smoothing factor of 0.10, Use smoothing factor of 0.40.
Plot the actual data and both sets of forecast on a single graph.
Solution:
Period
Actual
Demand
Forecast
Forecast
Error
Forecast Forecast
Error
1 50
2 52 50 2 50 2
3 48 50.20 -2.2 50.80 -2.8
4 51 49.98 1.02 49.68 1.32
5 50 50.08 -0.80 50.21 -0.21
6 54 50.07 3.93 50.13 3.87
7 52 50.46 1.54 51.68 0.32
8 50 50.61 -0.61 51.81 -1.81
9 55 50.55 4.45 51.09 3.91
10 51 2 52.65 0.35
11 51.20 52.79
= 0.10
= 0.40
18. Trend Line Forecast
Yt = a + bt
*Where:
t = specified number of time periods from t=0
Yt = forecast for period t
a = value of Yt at t=0
b = slope of the line
*The coefficient of line a and b can be computed using two equations:
b = nΣty - Σt Σy OR a = Σy - bΣt
nΣt^2 – (Σt)^2 n
*Where n = number of periods; y = value of the time series
19. Components of Time Series Model
Trend
Component
Seasonal
Component
Irregular
Component
Cyclical
Component
20. Aggregate Production Planning (APP)
Aggregate Production Planning is an operational activity that does an aggregate plan for production process in
advance of 6-18 months to give an idea to the management that what quantity of material and resources are to be
procured and when so that the total cost of oganization is kept minimum of that period.
INPUTS:-
Information about the resources and facilities available
Demand and forecats for the period for which the planning has to be done.
Cost of various alternatives and resources (cost of holding inventory, ordering cos, cost of production)
Organisational pilicy regrading the usage of all alternatives.
22. Why Is Production Planning Necessary
Demand
Fluctuations
Difficulty level in
altering
production rates
Benefits of
multi period
planning
Capacity
Fluctuation
23. Master Production Scheduling (MPS)
It is is a plan for individual commodities to be produced in each time period such as
production, staffing, inventory, etc.
It is usually linked to manufacturing where the plan indicates when and how much of
each product will be demanded.
This plan quantifies significant processes, parts, and other resources in order to
optimize production, to identify bottlenecks, and to anticipate needs and
completed goods.
24. Benefits of MPS
It provides a solid base to build, improve and track the sales forecast.
It provides a solid base to determine the desired inventory levels.
It provides a solid base for calculating the required amount of labor and shifts, as part of the MRP next stage.
It allows optimizing the installed capacity and balancing the load of the plant.
25. Material Requirement Planning (MRP)
Material Requirements Planning (MRP) is a production planning, scheduling, and inventory control
system used to manage manufacturing processes.
An MRP system objectives:
Ensure raw materials are available for production and products are available for delivery to customers.
Maintain the lowest possible material and product levels in store
Plan manufacturing activities, delivery schedules and purchasing activities.
27. Manufacturing Resource Planning (MRP-II)
Manufacturing Resource Planning is an information system used to plan and control inventories and
capacities in manufacturing companies. MRP II coordinates the sales , purchasing , manufacturing,
finance and engineering functions.
The various modules of MRP II are follows:
Manufacturing Applications
Engineering applications.
Financial Applications.
Marketing applications
28. Routing
Routing is determining the exact path which will be followed in production. It is the selection of
the path from where each unit have to pass before reaching the final stage. The stages from
which goods are to pass are decided in this process.
Routing Procedure:
Deciding what part to be made or purchased
Determining Materials required
Determining Manufacturing Operations and Sequences
Determining of Lot Sizes
Determining of Scrap Factors
Analysis of Cost of the Product
Preparation of Production Control
29. Scheduling
Scheduling is the determining of time and date when each operation is to be commenced or
completed. The time and date of manufacturing each component is fixed in such a way that
assembling for final product is not delayed in any way.
TYPES OF SCHEDULES:
Master Scheduling
Manufacturing Scheduling
Detail Operation Scheduling
30. Dispatching
Dispatching refers to the process of actually ordering the work to be done. It involves putting the
plan into effect by issuing orders. It is concerned with starting the process and operation on the
basis of route sheets and schedule charts.
DISPATCHING PROCEDURES:
Centralized Dispatching
Decentralized Dispatching
31. Machine Loading
Machine load charts show the amount of work (in terms of hours, days, or weeks) that
has been assigned and scheduled to each machine, groups of identical machines or shop
departments.
Loading provides a complete and correct information about the number of machines
available and their operating characteristics such as speed, capacity, capability etc.
This information can be used to calculate the difference between work load and actual
capacity and then to determine whether customers order can be completed on due date
or not.
32. Just In Time (JIT) Manufacturing
Just-in-time (JIT) manufacturing, also known as just-in-time production or the Toyota
Production System (TPS), is a methodology aimed primarily at reducing cycle times of
various activities within production system as well as response times from suppliers and
to customers.
JIT is seen as a more cost efficient method of maintaining stock levels.
Its purpose is to minimise the amount of goods you hold at any one time without
compromising the production volumes.
34. Project Management
Any project involves planning, scheduling and controlling a number of interrelated activities with
use of limited resources, namely, men, machines, materials, money and time.
It is required that managers must have a dynamic planning and scheduling system to produce the
best possible results and also to react immediately to the changing conditions and make
necessary changes in the plan and schedule.
36. Phases of Project Management
Planning: Planning involves setting the objectives of the project. Identifying various activities to be
performed and determining the requirement of resources such as men, materials, machines, etc.
Scheduling: Based on the time estimates, the start and finish times for each activity are worked
out by applying forward and backward pass techniques, critical path is identified, along with the
slack and float for the non-critical paths.
Controlling: Controlling refers to analyzing and evaluating the actual progress against the plan.
Reallocation of resources, crashing and review of projects with periodical reports are carried out.
37. Project Network Analysis
Network Analysis is a system which plans the projects by analyzing the project activities.
Projects are broken down into individual tasks or activities, which are arranged in logical sequence.
A network diagram is prepared, which presents visually the relationship between all the activities
involved and the cost for different activities.
Network analysis helps designing, planning, coordinating, controlling and in decision-making in order
to accomplish the project economically in the minimum available time with the limited available
resources.
The network analysis fulfils the objectives of reducing total time, cost, idle resources, interruptions and
conflicts.
38. Critical Path Method (CPM)
In CPM activities are shown as a network of precedence relationships using activity-on- node network construction
Single estimate of activity time
Deterministic activity times
USED IN:
Production management - for the jobs of repetitive in nature where the activity time estimates can be predicted
with considerable certainty due to the existence of past experience.
39. CPM calculation
Path : A connected sequence of activities leading from the starting event to the ending event
Critical Path : The longest path (time); determines the project duration
Critical Activities : All of the activities that make up the critical path
40. Example
Draw a network for house construction project. The sequence of activities with their predecessors are given in table
below.
Activity
Starting & Finishing
Event
Description of Activity Predecessor
Time Duration
(days)
A (1,2) Prepare the house plan - 4
B (2,3) Cobstruct the house A 58
C (3,4) Fix the door / windows B 2
D (3,5) Wiring the house B 2
E (4,6) Paint the house C 1
F (5,6) Polish the doors / windows D 1
1 2 3
4
5
6
A
E
C
D
B
F
41. Programme Evaluation Review Technique (PERT)
In PERT activities are shown as a network of precedence relationships using activity-on- arrow network construction
Multiple time estimates
Probabilistic activity times
USED IN:
Project management - for non-repetitive jobs (research and development work), where the time and cost
estimates tend to be quite uncertain. This technique uses probabilistic time estimates.
42. Project Crashing
The process of shortening the time to complete a project is called crashing and is usually achieved by
putting into service additional labour or machines to one activity or more activities.
Crashing involves more costs.
A project manager would like to speed up a project by spending as minimum extra cost as possible.
Project crashing seeks to minimize the extra cost for completion of a project before the stipulated time.
43. Procedure for Crashing
Step1: Draw the network diagram and mark the Normal time and Crash time.
Step2: Calculate TE and TL for all the activities.
Step3: Find the critical path and other paths.
Step 4: Find the slope for all activities and rank them in ascending order.
Step 5: Establish a tabular column with required field.
Step 6: Select the lowest ranked activity; check whether it is a critical activity. If so,crash
the activity, else go to the next highest ranked activity.
Note: The critical path must remain critical while crashing.
Step 7: Calculate the total cost of project for each crashing
Step 8: Repeat Step 6 until all the activities in the critical path are fully crashed.