Extraction from the ocean chapters of IPCC Working Group II contribution to 5th Assessment Report by Svein Sundby, Institute of Marine Research, Norway SICCME open session, 17 September 2014, ICES Annual Science Conference, A Coruña, Spain

1. Global climate change has regional implications and
regional impacts –
extraction from the ocean chapters of IPCC WGII AR5
Svein Sundby
SICCME SpaiSICCME Open Session. ICES ASC, A Coruña, Spainn
1177 SSeepptteemmbbeerr 22001144

2. Impacts of global climate change on tthhee oocceeaann pphhyyssiiccss
aanndd cchheemmiissttrryy::
11..GGeettttiinngg wwaarrmmeerr
22..LLoossiinngg ooxxyyggeenn
33..AAcciiddiiffiieess aanndd iinnccrreeaassee iinn ssuubbssaattuurraattiioonn ooff ccaallcciiuumm
ccaarrbboonnaattee
GGeenneerraall ccoonnsseeqquueenneess ffoorr mmaarriinnee eeccoossyysstteemmss::
11.. CChhaannggee iinn pprroodduuccttiivviittyy
22.. DDiissppllaacceemmeenntt ooff ssppeecciieess
33.. CChhaannggeess iinn ssppeecciieess ddiivveerrssiittyy aanndd ssttrruuccttuurree aanndd
ffuunnccttiioonniinngg ooff tthhee eeccoossyysstteemmss

3. WWoorrlldd oocceeaannss ccoommppoosseedd ooff aa ddiivveerrssee sseett ooff eeccoossyysstteemmss ––
IIPPCCCC WWGG22 CChh 3300 hhaass ccoonnssiiddeerreedd 77 mmaajjoorr ggrroouuppss::
11.. SSpprriinngg--bblloooommss 22.. EEqquuaattoorriiaall uuppwweelllliinngg 33.. SSeemmii--eenncclloosseedd sseeaass
77.. DDeeeepp SSeeaa
44.. CCooaassttaall uuppwweelllliinngg 55.. EEaasstteerrnn bboouunnddaarryy uuppwweelllliinngg 66.. SSuubbttrrooppiiccaall ggyyrreess
FFiigguurree 3300..11 aa

4. 2200 %% ooff tthhee
wwoorrlldd
oocceeaann’’ss aarreeaa
800 %% ooff tthhee
wwoorrlldd’’ss ffiisshh
ccaattcchheess

5. Globally modeled phytoplankton production
(average of a group of four global models)
Steinacher et al. (2010) Biogeosciences
Pre-industrial production
(1860s)
Change in production at the
end of this century (2090s)

6. Physical processes rreegguullaattiinngg pprriimmaarryy pprroodduuccttiioonn
IPCC (2014)

7. De subtropiske virvlene
Vind
Assumed critical factor for
primary production:
Global warming increases
thermal stratification and
reduces vertical flux of nutrients
> Reduced primary production
The Subtropical gyres ”The Deserts”

8. Østlige oppstrømningssystemer
Assumed critical factor for
promary production (the
Bakun hypothesis):
Global warming increases the
thermal gradient between land
and ocean giving increased
wind and in turn increased flux
of nutrients from the depth
> Possible increased primary
production
Eastern Boundary Upwelling
Ecosystem

9. Våroppblomstyringssystemene
Temperatur
e
The high-latitude spring-bloom ecosystems
Assumed critical factor for
primary production:
Global climate change increases
the ocean temperature giving
increased regenerated
production.
> Increased primary production
Kritisk faktor ved klimaendringer
Lysbegrenset
Næringssaltbegrenset
Temperaturbegrenset
Vind

10. Reduction in oxygen concentration will primarily impact areas that
have additional low-oxygen natural/anthropgenic stress
FFiigguurree 3300..99 bb
Low-latitude coastal regions and semi-enclosed seas
(e.g. Baltic, Black, and Mediterranean)

11. 2 oC target
”Business as
usual” Shellfish
Invertebrates
Vertebrates
FFiigguurree 3300..77 aa oogg bb
AACCIIDDIIFFIICCAATTIIOONN

12. GGlloobbaall cclliimmaattee cchhaannggee ccaauusseess rreeddiissttrriibbuuttiioonn ooff ssppeecciieess::
RReedduuccttiioonn aatt llooww llaattiittuuddeess,, iinnccrreeaassee aatt hhiigghh llaattiittuuddeess
FFiigguurree 66..1144

13. Atlantic mackerel
From EU and Norway
to Iceland,
Greenland
…and Russia?
ICES Working Group on Widely distributed Stocks (WGWIDE).
Icelandic-Faroese-Norwegian cruise trawl survey on mackerel (Nøttestad et al. 2013)

14. Adaptation and mitigation for marine ecosystems?
* Reduce international conflicts: Develop commonly accepted rules for
shared stocks under distributional changes
* Continue to develop ”ecosystem-based management of fish stocks
* Replace coral bleaching by warm(est) water species (e.g. from the
Arabian Gulf)

15. ”Climatic changes in the Arctic in
relation to plants and animals”
Preface by Gunnar Rollefsen with Appendix: Enquiry
into the Problem of Climate and Ecological Changes in
Northern Waters
Introductory address by Hans W:son Ahlmann
A. Contribution to Physical Changes
Recent Climatic Fluctuations by Leo Lysgaard
The increase in the Sea Temperature in Northern
Waters during Recent Years by Jens Smed
B. Contributions on Biological changes
On Changes in the Marine Fauna on the North-
Western Atlantic Area, with special reference to
Greenland by Å. Vedel Tåning
Boreo-tended Changes in the Marine Vertebrate
Fauna of Iceland during the last 25 years by Arni
Fredriksson
Fluctuations in the two most important Stocks of Fish in
Northern Waters, the Cod and the Herring
by Gunnar Rollefsen
On Changes inthe Distribution of Terrestrial Animals in
Relation to Climatic Changes by Poul Jespersen
The Forecasting of Climatic Fluctuations and Its
Importance to the Arctic Fisheries by Arthur Lee

16. ?
Development of Barents Sea temperature
observations, 30-yr low-pass filter of observations, and modelled anthropogenic component