1. The document discusses the impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture. It is expected to affect agricultural productivity and shift crop patterns due to factors like increasing temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme weather events. 2. Studies have shown that increases in temperature could reduce yields of crops like rice and wheat. Climate change may also lead to a change in suitable areas for growing certain crops. Rain-fed agriculture is expected to be more severely impacted than irrigated agriculture. 3. The impacts of climate change on agriculture could have wide-ranging implications for issues like food security, trade, livelihoods, and water conservation in India given the country's dependence on agriculture. Adaptation and mitigation strategies will

1. 1AGRICULTURE ANDCLIMATE CHANGEBY:SHAILESH TELANG M.Sc- Environment Management FOREST RESEARCH INSTITUTE UNIVERSITY,Dehradun

2. 2Agriculture represents a core part of the Indian economy and provides food and livelihood activities to much of the Indian population. While the magnitude of impact varies greatly by region, climate change is expected to impact on agricultural productivity and shifting crop patterns. The policy implications are wide-reaching, as changes in agriculture could affect food security, trade policy, livelihood activities and water conservation issues, impacting large portions of the population.

3. 3EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTUREClimate change may have beneficial as well as detrimental consequences for agriculture.

4. A warming climate and decreasing soil moisture can also result in increasing need for irrigation.

5. Benefits to agriculture might be offset by an increased likelihood of heat waves, drought, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.

6. With the virtually certain likelihood of warmer and more frequent hot days and nights, there are projected to be increased insect outbreaks impacting agriculture, forestry and ecosystems. (IPCC )Predicted climate change impacts on agricultureCLIMATE CHANGEDirect effect on cropgrowthPhysiology

7. MorphologyIndirect effectsSoil Fertility

8. Irrigation availability

9. Pest

10. Flood & droughtsSocio economicPolicy

11. Trade

12. Farmer’s responseHuman interventionsAdaptation strategiesMitigation strategiesAgricultural Production & vulnerability

14. Impacts on Indian Agriculture Literature Review· Sinha and Swaminathan (1991) – showed that an increase of 2oC in temperature could decrease the rice yield by about 0.75 ton/ha in the high yield areas; and a 0.5oC increase in winter temperature would reduce wheat yield by 0.45 ton/ha. · Saseendran et al. (2000) – showed that for every one degree rise in temperature the decline in rice yield would be about 6%.Aggarwal et al. (2002) – on basis of recent climate change scenarios estimated impacts on wheat and other cereal crops.INDIA AND AGRICULTURE Population : 1.14 Billion

15. GDP from Agriculture : 18.6 % (2005) (Source: Map of India.com)Area under Agriculture : 37.8% (124.14 mha)(Source: npcm team)Population dependent on Agriculture : 66%(Source: EconomyWatch.com)Average farm size: : 1 to5 haINDIAN AGRICULTURE- STRENGTHS AND CHALLENGESStrong strides made in increasing the production in the past 50 years, mainly due to adoption of HYVs and other technological developments

16. Subsistence agriculture with small land holdings

17. Wide variation in regional productivities

18. Majority still depend on rain-fed agriculture

19. Frequently affected by extreme weather events such as droughts and cyclones

20. Significant proportion of population still reels under poverty, mal-nutrition and chronic hungerThe Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI) examined the vulnerability of agricultural production to climate change, with the objective of determining differences in climate change impacts on agriculture by region and by crop.The study found that increases in temperature (by about 2ºC) reduced potential grain yields in most places.Reductions in yields as a result of climate change are predicted to be more pronounced for rain fed crops (as opposed to irrigated crops)and under limited water supply situations because there are no coping mechanisms for rainfall variability.Climate change is also predicted to lead to boundary changes in areas suitable for growing certain crops. These are shown for wheat in Figure.9

21. 10BOUNDARY CHANGES FOR PRODUCTIVITY OF IRRIGATED WHEATSource: IARI.

22. 11Potential Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production in India

23. 12Effect of Climate change on SoybeanAccording to studies, soybean yields could go up by as much as 50 per cent if the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere doubles.

24. If this increase in carbon dioxide is accompanied by an increase in temperature, as expected, then soybean yields could actually decrease. If the maximum and minimum temperatures go up by 1°C and 1.5°C respectively, the gain in yield comes down to 35 per cent.Source: Centre for science & Environment

25. 13Potential Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in IndiaOverall, temperature increases are predicted to reduce rice yields. An increase of 2-4ºC is predicted to result in a reduction in yields.Although additional CO2 can benefit crops, this effect was nullified by an increase of temperature.Source: IARI