A presentation by Timothy D Searchinger of Princeton University at the opening session of the inaugural Global Research Alliance meeting in Wellington, New Zealand.

1. FEEDING A HOT AND HUNGRY PLANET Tim Searchinger (Princeton University, German Marshall Fund of the U.S. tsearchi@princeton.edu Courtesy IIASA

2. Ag’s Contribution to World Greenhouse Gases ~ 30% Nitrous oxide – fertilizer, livestock deposits, biomass burning Methane – livestock (enteric), cows, rice, manure, biomass burning Energy – farm machinery, fertilizer, irrigation pumps 13 million hectares/yr gross deforestation N20 and NH4 to grow 60% by 2030 (IPCC 2007; Bellarby2008 , in CO2 eq.)

3. - 16% of world malnourished - 1/3 of children in developing world stunted - 30 million babies born impaired due to lack of natal nutrition - 5 million children die annually from causes related to lack of nutrition

5. Undernourished People and Recent Changes Source: FAO. 2009. The State of Food Insecurity In the World, 2008

6. Agriculture Mitigation Potential at $100/t(IPPC 2007 Mitigation Report)

7. The Challenge of Soil Carbon Gains No Till Depth Baker et al., Agriculture Ecosystems and Env. 118:1-5 (2007); Blanco-Canqui & Lal, SSSAJ 72:693-701 (2008) Nitrous Oxide Africa Are we actually losing soil carbon? UK, Midwest New Zealand

8. Biochar?

9. Conventional approach But . . . Biofuels & Greenhouse Gases Land grows plants (carbon) anyway * forest * food Only ADDITIONAL plant growth helps

10. Large Bioenergy Potential Studies Most potential arable land – IPCC 2007 chapter 8 - 1.3billion hectares and/or All forest growth in excess of harvest (Smeets 2008)and/or All “abandoned” cropland (Hoodwijk (2004) and/or Hundreds of millions of hectares of “grazing” or “other” land – savannah (Fischer 2001; Smith 2007) Recounts existing forest, forest re-growth, net terrestrial carbon sink, land counted for grazing

11. Unused Cropland is Mostly Wetter Savannah, Woodlots and Forest in Latin America and Africa

12. Other Uses of Land? More cropland and pasture for food –200-500 million hectares by 2050 Terrestrial carbon sink – 9.5 GT CO2/yr Avoided deforestation potential – 9 Gt/year Afforestation mitigation potential – 4 Gt/year Restore peatlands – 1.3 gigatons/year All from IPCC 2007 Mitigation Report, chapters 8 & 9

13. IPCC Baselines – Mission Accomplished? IPCC SRES ScenariosPredicted Emissions from Land Use Change Gigatons C

14. Can We Avoid Land Use Change for Food? Croplands Agriculture occupies 35% of ice free surface Grazing lands Foley J A et al. PNAS 2007;104:12585-12586 ©2007 by National Academy of Sciences

16. No-policy scenario Carbon Dioxide Emissions – Reilly (MIT) – Impact of Ozone Note: Emissions from land use change are those from projected changes. Continuing uptake from forest regrowth from pre-2000 land use change and changed uptake (due to CO2/climate) on undisturbed land is not shown.

17. Impacts on Yields of Climate Change Itself Change in average maximum temperature ( oC), 2000–2050 top is CSIRO; bottom is NCAR Nelson et al., Climate Change Impact on Agriculture (IFPRI 2009) With no crop fertilization effect , by 2050: –Rice yields decline by 14 – 18% in developing countries - Irrigated wheat declines 28-34%

18. Areas of Water Stress (IIASA)

20. FAO’s latest estimate ~120 million hectares additional cropland by 2050Courtesy of Pedro Sanchez

21. Natural Forest (Melillo, Gurgel, et al. 2008) Natural Forest

22. Natural Forest (“Deforestation” Scenario) Natural Forest

23. Land Lessons Land is limited MORE CARBON NOT DIFFERENT CARBON Understand land/input tradeoffs

24. Important question: where isthe underutilized “other” land Carbon content Outputs Biodiversity Ownership Barriers to use

25. Peatland Restoration – 1.3 Gt/y (IPCC 2007 Mitigation)

26. 70% of rice straw in Punjab burned Punia, Current Science 94:1185-1190 (2008)

27. Predicted 2000-2010 Pasture & Cropland Expansion in Latin America Wassenaar et al., Global Env. Change 17:86-104 (2007) Two thirds of net agricultural expansion is pasture

28. Sources of Nitrous Oxide Adapted from Davidson, Nature Geoscience2:659-662 (2009)

29. Steinfeld et al. 2007, Livestock’s Long Shadow (FAO)

30. World Grazing Land Haberl et al., PNAS 104:12942-12947 Contrast FAO Grazing Land NPP World - 1047

31. Rangeland Thoughts Possible Pursuit: Productivity enhancement plus forest regeneration

32. Better UnderstandingChallenges of Lifecycle Analysis for Livestock(source TheunVellinga, Wageninen University) Reasonable data available Kilograms of meat, milk, slaughtered animals Total numbers of animals Total fertilizer input on country level No systematic data available herd demography feed use pasture quality feed production and manure management

33. Doberman, Cassman, Ser. C Life Sciences 48:745-758 (2005)

34. Deep Placed Urea Supergranules IFDC 17-33% yield gains, decreases urea by 33%

38. and now a brief advertisement . . .

39. Final Thoughts “All” is beautiful Seek copper bullets Don’t forget the “D” of R&D Practical/strategic approach Coordinating teams Scrutinize the teams Constantly question & improve numbers & make real field assessments Mix technology, policy, development & basic research Give rangeland the respect it deserves Immediate Policies That Can’t Wait Integrate REDD/food production Develop NAMA guidance