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Success in feeding the world or source of social and environmental concern

Presented By Peter Barberry,ICRISAT

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Success in feeding the world or source of social and environmental concern

  1. 1. Peter Carberry ICRISAT Agriculture’s narrative Success in feeding the world or source of social and environmental concern Thursday 8th August 2019 – Technical session: "Science and technology to secure and sustain small holder farmers’ livelihood and nutrition & health security“.
  2. 2. ICRISAT – sorghum, millets & legumes
  3. 3. Crawford Conference Sir John Crawford Chair TAC Weathering the ‘Perfect Storm’: Addressing the Agriculture, Energy, Water, Climate Change Nexus
  4. 4. A rising perfect storm
  5. 5. www.cgiar.org Living within PLANETARY BOUNDARIES • In 22 countries, the water stress level is above 70 per cent (2013-2017) • Global Warming: 1.16 °C (2018) • Forests Loss: 60 million hectares (2000 to 2016) • Land degradation impacts 3.2 billion people Global Warming: 1.16 °C Forest area (% of land area) Loss 60 million hectares (2000 to 2016) World Bank Open DataGlobal Temperature Report for 2018
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  7. 7. Climate-smart agriculture for food security Lipper et al., 2014 7 • Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is an approach for transforming and reorienting agricultural systems to support food security under the new realities of climate change • Widespread changes in rainfall and temperature patterns threaten agricultural production. • CSA differs from ‘business-as-usual’ approaches by emphasizing the capacity to implement flexible, context-specific solutions • Unless we change our approach to planning and investment for agricultural growth and development, we risk misallocating human and financial resources, generating agricultural systems incapable of supporting food security and contributing to increasing climate change. • Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) can avoid this ‘lose–lose’ outcome
  8. 8. Climate Smart Agriculture Agriculture that sustainably increases productivity, enhances resilience (adaptation), reduces/removes GHGs (mitigation) where possible, and enhances achievement of national food security (FAO, 2013) 8
  9. 9. Consideration and communication of risk Kenya : 20 seasons of crop yield Treatments & Plots Trt Plot Nos A Bare fallow 12 B Traditional (22K, 0N) 1 & 8 C Intercrop (22K + beans) 7 D 22K + 50% mulch 3 & 6 E 53K, 70N & P + excess mulch 4 & 10 F as E with reduced tillage 5 & 9 G 53K, 100N & P + full mulch 2 & 11 Maize grain (t/ha) 0 1 2 3 4 5 LR 1990SR 1990LR 1991SR 1991LR 1992SR 1992LR 1993SR 1993LR 1994SR 1994LR 1995SR 1995LR 1996SR 1996LR 1997SR 1997LR 1998SR 1998LR 1999SR 1999 Trt B Trt C Trt D Trt E Trt F Trt G “CSA” led to lower yields and investment losses in many years
  10. 10. www.cgiar.org No other organization has done as much to ensure families — especially the poorest — have an answer to that question as CGIAR, the world’s largest global agricultural research organization.” What’s for dinner? Bill Gates in his blog ‘gatesnotes’ Photo: C Wangari
  11. 11. www.cgiar.org CGIAR Assets 11
  12. 12. www.cgiar.org CGIAR Centers across the world 12 CGIAR SYSTEM ORGANIZATION
  13. 13. Sorghum Pearl millet Finger millet Minor millets Chickpea Groundnut Pigeonpea (Peanut) ICRISAT’s mandate crops Critical for SAT agriculture Foxtail millet Kodo millet Little millet Proso millet Barnyard millet
  14. 14. y = 4.2x y = 4.1x y = 13.0x y = 26.3x 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 19501955196019651970197519801985199019952000200520102015 GrainYield(Kg/ha) 1950-65 1966-80 1981-1995 1996-2015 3% per annum; 1.5% accounted to genetic component Success … Pearl millet in India On-farm impact of pearl millet hybrids in India (Venkata Rao et al. 2018) • Pearl Millet Hybrid Parents Research Consortium (PMHPRC) • Impact study covering 563 pearl millet growers in three states assessed directly or indirectly ICRISAT breeding lines • PMHPRC hybrids covered ~ 60% of the pearl millet hybrid area during 2013-14. • Hybrids provided at least 20% higher grain and fodder yield than the varieties/hybrids they replaced. • Total benefits due to these hybrids added up to USD 133.7 million per year. • The overall benefits at the country level could surpass USD 150 million per year. • Households planting improved varieties would be 1.5 million farm families.
  15. 15. Highly nutritious Environmentally friendly Climate smart – resilient under extreme weather conditions Significant yield gap Good opportunities to diversify both diets and on-farm Untapped demand and uses
  16. 16. Drought … but what can be done?
  17. 17. What is recommended practice?
  18. 18. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 -700,000 -500,000 -300,000 -100,000 100,000 300,000 500,000 700,000 CroppingYearRainfall(mm) FarmProfit($) Sth Mallee Farm - Farm Profit vs Cropping year rainfall Farm Profit/Loss Cropping year rainfall Actual farm data – southern Mallee farm (5200ha), 80% crop and 20% livestock (by area) Costs: Inputs, Machinery, Labour and Financial Data courtesy of Harm van Rees (CropFacts) Climate variability makes dryland agriculture risky
  19. 19. Managing climate variability 1. Irrigation – watershed development 2. Diversification – crop- livestock-tree systems 3. Breeding for drought 4. Managing for drought – a. Conservation agriculture b. Seasonal climate forecasting c. Soil water management 5. Decision Support Systems “Climate smart Agriculture”
  20. 20. Villa ge District State Nation • All 37 wells have become functional • Area under irrigation increased • Increased water availability round the year Partnering with companies (CSR) on watershed initiatives are being undertaken in various districts across different states in India Bhoochetana project in Karnataka benefits >5M farmers Genesis: Kothapally village, Telangana ICRISAT works closely with the Government of India to scale up its learnings across the country 1. Irrigation – watershed story in India  Increased crop yield by 2066%  Covered 6.67 m ha and benefitted 4.75 m farmers  Contributed to rise in agriculture growth annually above 5% since 2009  Benefit cost ratio for the farmers 3-14:1  Net benefits accrued in 5 years (US$ 453 M)
  21. 21. Dryland Eco-farm  Improving resource use and cycling through tree-crop-livestock interactions Manure is critical Agro-forestry alley cropping system which combines shrubs (Improved Ziziphus mauritiana) and annual crops (millet, cowpea), in rotation between alleys of Australian acacia. The crops are planted in water harvesting structures (Half-moon and zai pits) This agroecological system allows to prevent soil erosion throught the wind break role of the acacia shrubs and the fallen leave which also contribute to improve soil fertility. 2. Diversification – crop-livestock-tree systems
  22. 22. Feed resource Contribution to overall feed resources (%) Greens from CRP, forests, grazing 8.0 Planted forages 15.1 Crop residues 70.6 Concentrates 6.3 Deficit: feed availability versus feed requirement (%) Dry matter (i.e. crop residue quantity) -6 Digestible crude protein -61 Total digestible nutrients -50 (NIANP 2012; Blümmel at al. 2014) The croplands feed livestock Feed resource supply - demand scenarios in India
  23. 23. • 104 germplasm accessions released as cultivars in 51 countries • 1019 cultivars released in 81 countries from germplasm and breeding material supplied from ICRISAT 3. Breeding for drought
  24. 24. Drought tolerance Root traits- root length density, root length, root surface area Yield, harvest index, 100-seed weight, number pods per plant, biomass, specific leaf area, delta carbon ratio, days to flowering, days to maturity Heat tolerance Pods per plant, heat tolerance index, yield, biomass, harvest index, days to flowering, days to maturity Salinity tolerance Pod number, seed number, seed yield, Shoot dry weight, harvest index 100 seed weight Ascochyta blight Seedling resistance and adult plant resistance Helicoverpa Leaf damage rating (flowering), Unit larval weight, Helicoverpa larvae/10 plants, Days to first flowering Botrytis grey mould Heat tolerance Over 50 traits mapped Pod borer Ascochyta blight Salinity tolerance Drought tolerance Fusarium wilt Fusarium wilt, Botrytis grey mould, Protein content Chickpea
  25. 25. • 95% of chickpea area under short-duration varieties developed from ICRISAT-bred lines in Southern India (AP & Telangana) and Myanmar • During the period of 15 years (1999-2013), chickpea production increased 5.8-fold in southern India and 7.2-fold in Myanmar 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Yield(kg/ha) Area(100ha)/Production(1000t) Area (1000 ha) Production (1000 t) Yield (kg/ha) AP & Telangana 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Yield(kg/ha) Area(100ha)/Production(1000t) Area (1000 ha) Myanmar Impacts of short-duration chickpea varieties in Southern India & Myanmar
  26. 26. ● Minimum mechanical soil disturbance ● Permanent soil cover (crop or mulch) ● Diverse crop and pasture species Source FAO 2011 Courtesy: John Kirkegaard 4a. Managing for drought – conservation agriculture
  27. 27. Rick Llewellyn and Frank d’Emden (2009) Adoption of no-till cropping practices in Australian grain growing regions. GRDC report Conservation agriculture – a “new” energy, water and machinery system that took 40 years of development & adoption
  28. 28. Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and global rainfall forecastb Long Paddock web page www.dnr.qld.gov.au/longpdk/ Carberry, P.S., Hammer, G.L., Meinke, H. and Bange, M., 2000. The potential value of seasonal climate forecasting in managing cropping systems. In: Hammer, G.L., Nicholls, N. and Mitchell, C. (Eds.), Application of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems - The Australian Experience. Kluwer Academic Publishers. p. 167-181 4b. Managing for drought – seasonal climate forecasting
  29. 29. Combining SOI phases & simulation Zimbabwe, maize, deep sand, 52 kg N/ha fertilizer, 1959-1998 Sept-Oct SOI Probability of exceedance 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 Yield (kg/ha) Probability% Con - Con + Rapid - Rapid + Near 0 Whitbread, A., Robertson, M., Carberry, P. and Dimes, J. (2010). How farming systems simulation can aid the development of more sustainable smallholder farming systems in southern Africa. European Journal of Agronomy 32, 51-58
  30. 30. Effect of variations in PAW and seeding opportunity on percentage of modelled yields in Mallee, South Australia Upper tercile (white) Middle tercile (grey) Lower tercile (black) Planting opportunity: Early Late At sowing Low SW Moderate SW High SW Whitbread et al 4c. Managing for drought – soil water management
  31. 31. • Products (plastic mulch, polymer sprays, films, foams, processed crop residues) • a barrier to evaporation of water from soil • maximise conversion of rainfall to transpiration • 0.8 t/ha increase Courtesy: Mike Robertson Barriers to evaporation
  32. 32. Yield Prophet www.yieldprophet.com.au • Joint initiative of BCG and CSIRO • Commercial subscription service • Provides reports on yield probability, crop & soil status, impacts of management 5. Managing for drought – Decision support systems
  33. 33. Yield Prophet - Simulation March MayApril July SeptemberAugust NovemberOctoberJune Soil sampling (starting point) Crop sown APSIM simulation (water and nitrogen balance, crop growth) Today Simulated yields (t/ha) 4.4 2.9 3.8 2.2 1.7 2.3 1.5 1.8 3.9 0.6 100 years of daily climate data Report generated
  34. 34. Wimmera Mail-Times Mallee farmers invested in their crops in 2011 despite a decile 2 (very dry) season • Characterisation of soils for water holding capacity • Regular monitoring to determine the state of soil water and nitrogen • Conserving soil moisture through conservation tillage and weed control • Use of decision support to help make investment decisions • Seasonal climate forecasting
  35. 35. • Digital technologies have the power to overcome physical barriers and democratize information • Mobile Phones are ubiquitous devices that are entry points for farmers to digital services. • Mobile devices provide the last mile connectivity and first mile of reconnaissance of information for farmers Agro-entrepreneur Smallholder farmer Large-scale buyer Government Farmer database Mobile banking eCommerce platform Individual consumer • Allows consumers to buy directly from farmers through mobile and web interfaces • Includes supply chain management to ensure quality and traceability • Holds information on each farmer – land boundaries, soil type, varieties grown, etc. • Updates in real time so buyers can track and forecast supply • Gives farmers access to payments, savings, and direct deposit services Opportunities for smallholder farmers? Data ecosystem • Aggregates geospatial and temporal datasets for sustainable intensification (e.g. digital soil maps, weather, variety adaptation zones, crop systems) • Stores data in the cloud
  36. 36. But … innovations to increase productivity will likely be riskier due to increased investment…
  37. 37. And … more to do in Africa 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0 100 200 300 400 500 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Yield(MT/ha) Totalproduction(thousandsofMT) andareaplanted(thousandofha) Year of harvestProduction Area Yield Linear (Area) Linear (Yield) Sorghum - Zimbabwe Pearl Millet - Niger
  38. 38. India – Africa: South-South Collaboration
  39. 39. Conclusions • Agriculture’s narrative is one of success • Future challenges must be met with research as a major source of innovation • The world’s poor smallholder farmers and consumers need to benefit from innovation • Risk-mitigating practices, tools and policies necessary along the full agrifood system • South-South Collaboration – leveraging India’s success for Africa
  40. 40. Thank You

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