The term “Demography” is the statistical and mathematical study of the human population's size, composition, and spatial distribution and of changes over time in these aspects through the operation of five fertility processes: mortality, marriage, migration, and social mobility.
Usually, the demographic data are drawn from various sources such as:
National censuses,
Civil registration systems,
and sample surveys.
What factors explain the fertility transition in India?HFG Project
The purpose of this study is to explain the main causes of fertility change and its implications in India over the time period 1998 to 2016. To accomplish this, we first test the proximate determinants model to see if it is valid in the Indian context and then use it to estimate the contribution of each determinant to changes in India’s total fertility rate. The findings are intended to inform program managers, donors, and researchers about the link between contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) and fertility decline.
this presentation will give a basic knowledge about age and sex structure, population pyramid with different countries age-sex structure along with Bangladesh perspective.
A study of what population policy is, how it evolve, types of population policy; weaknesses and strengths taken from the cases of India, China and Zimbabwe
Incidence (Epidemiology lecture)
short ppt to understand incidence. primary incidence rate, secondary incidence rate, incidence rate, examples of incidence, incidence rate related question are discussed in this lec.
What factors explain the fertility transition in India?HFG Project
The purpose of this study is to explain the main causes of fertility change and its implications in India over the time period 1998 to 2016. To accomplish this, we first test the proximate determinants model to see if it is valid in the Indian context and then use it to estimate the contribution of each determinant to changes in India’s total fertility rate. The findings are intended to inform program managers, donors, and researchers about the link between contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) and fertility decline.
this presentation will give a basic knowledge about age and sex structure, population pyramid with different countries age-sex structure along with Bangladesh perspective.
A study of what population policy is, how it evolve, types of population policy; weaknesses and strengths taken from the cases of India, China and Zimbabwe
Incidence (Epidemiology lecture)
short ppt to understand incidence. primary incidence rate, secondary incidence rate, incidence rate, examples of incidence, incidence rate related question are discussed in this lec.
Vital statistics, the most important branch of statistics, deals with the mankind in aggregate.
It provides a description of the vital events occurring in given communities.
By vital events, we mean birth, death, sickness, marriage, divorce, fertility, etc.
It deals with people rather than with things.
Vital statistics are of much importance for the people and nation.
POPULATION GEOGRAPHY vs. DEMOGRAPHY
Preface of the terms.
Variability between the terms.
Skills to the study of Population Geography.
Importance of Demographics and its Data.
Factors examined by the field of demography.
Demographic Transition Theory (DTT).
Population Pyramid.
Association between the terms.
Stats / Graphs of India – with referencing to Population and Demography.
India’s population projection.
Bibliography.
A cross-sectional study is a descriptive study in which disease and exposure status are measured simultaneously in a given population.
It measures
the prevalence of health outcomes(also called prevalence study)
or determinants of health,
or both,
In a population at a point in time or over a short period.
When the investigator draws a sample out of the study population of interest and examines all the subjects to detect
those having the disease/outcome
and those not having this disease/outcome of interest.
At the same time, finds out whether or not they have the presence of
the suspected cause (exposure)
(or give a History of such exposure in the past),
is called the Cross-sectional analytic study.
These comprehensive slides on demography provide a deep understanding of the science of population dynamics. Covering essential concepts, methodologies, and key demographic indicators, these notes offer insights into the study of population growth, distribution, and composition. Explore topics such as fertility, mortality, migration, and population projections, as well as their implications for society and policy. With this resource, you'll gain a strong foundation in demography, making it an invaluable reference for students, researchers, and anyone interested in the dynamics of human populations.
The word cohort is derived from the Latin "cohorts," meaning an enclosure, company, or crowd.
Taken in English from 17c. as a living prefix meaning "together, mutually, in common,“
In Roman times, a cohort was a 300—600 infantry body.
Group of people who share a common characteristic or experience within a defined time period.
Age [Birth cohort]
Occupation exposure cohort
Exposure to drugs or vaccine
Pregnancy cohort
Insured person cohort
Marriage cohort
Sampling is selecting observations (a sample) to provide an adequate description and inferences of the population.
Sample:
A is “a smaller (but hopefully representative) collection of units from a population used to determine truths about that population” (Field, 2005)
The sampling frame
A list of all elements or other units containing the elements in a population.
Agriculture is one of the occupations most exposed to various hazards. It is also associated with the highest rate of adverse health outcomes each year worldwide . Agricultural workers have been shown to be exposed to a variety of chemical hazards, such as pesticides and other chemical substances . Farm work may also expose workers to strenuous physical exercise and an extreme environment (i.e., low temperatures). Furthermore, during their daily activities, agricultural workers operate various types of vehicles, machinery, and equipment , which can result in excessive exposures to noise and vibration . It has been suggested that these occupational exposures increase the risk of musculoskeletal disorders due to the harmful effects of biomechanical and physical factors.
Workers may be exposed to various types of occupational hazards at the same time, potentially increasing the risk of adverse health outcomes.
Epidemiology & Control Measures of Mumps.pptxAB Rajar
Mumps is best known for the puffy cheeks and tender, swollen jaw that it causes. This is a result of swollen salivary glands under the ears on one or both sides, often referred to as parotitis. Other symptoms that might begin a few days before parotitis include: Fever. Headache.
Epidemiology & Control Measures of Measles.pptxAB Rajar
It is an acute highly infectious disease of childhood caused by a specific virus of the group myxovirus.
One of the top five causes of vaccine-preventable deaths in the world
Easy to prevent – the vaccine costs less than US$1 and gives life-long immunity
Found in every part of the world – measles outbreaks have taken place on every continent and in all climates
One of the most contagious diseases – 90% of those exposed to the measles virus will catch it if they do not have immunity
SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences), also known as IBM SPSS Statistics, is a software package used for the analysis of statistical data. Although the name of SPSS reflects its original use in the field of social sciences, its use has since expanded into other data markets.
The second major type of observational epidemiology
The subject of interest is individual
The object is testing of hypothesis:
Two distinct type
Case-Control Study
Cohort Study
These studies determine the statistical association between RF & diseases and if yes the strength of the association
Also c/d “retrospective studies”
First approach to test causal hypothesis
Also c/d “retrospective studies”
First approach to test causal hypothesis
Use two group cases & control
Has three distinct features
Both exposure & outcome (disease) occurred before the start of the study
The study proceeds backward from effect to cause
It uses a control or comparison group to support or refute an inference
Introduction to Descriptive Epidemiology.pptxAB Rajar
Descriptive Epidemiology is a branch of observation epidemiology, which particularly study about disease frequency and pattern by time, place, and person.
It deals with the distribution and determinants of the factors related to health or disease in the concerned population.
It measures the magnitudes of the disease or other health-related disorder in the form of incidence and prevalence
Epidemiology includes assessment of the distribution (including describing demographic characteristics of an affected population), determinants (including a study of possible risk factors), and the application to control health problems (such as closing a restaurant).
These lectures will help the students in understanding of basic principles, concepts, and definitions of the subject.
School health services is a branch of preventive medicine which deals with medical inspection of school children and their health protection, primarily in the environment of the school.
The water cycle describes the processes that drive the movement of water throughout the hydrosphere.
Nature recycles the earth's water supply through a process known as the water cycle or hydrologic cycle.
Snake bite is an injury caused by a bite from a snake, often resulting in puncture wounds inflicted by the animal’s fangs & some times resulting in envenomation
Personal hygiene is defined as the principle of maintaining cleanliness and grooming of the external body.
Maintaining a high level of personal hygiene will help to increase self esteem and confidence.
Family; It is a group of people emotionally involved and related either by blood, marriage or adoption; responsible for the reproduction and rearing of children, & living together.
Air plays a vital role in our lives.
It is our immediate environment and performs following Functions:
Supply oxygen for living
Supply CO2 to plants
Helps in smelling
Helps in listening.
Cancer may regarded as a group of diseases characterized by an:
Abnormal growth of cells
Ability to invade tissue and even distant organs
The eventually death of the affected patient if the tumor has
Progressed beyond the stage when it can be successful
removed
It is defined as an impairment of heart function due to inadequate blood flow to the heart compared to its needs, caused by obstructive changes in the coronary circulation to the heart.
Recomendações da OMS sobre cuidados maternos e neonatais para uma experiência pós-natal positiva.
Em consonância com os ODS – Objetivos do Desenvolvimento Sustentável e a Estratégia Global para a Saúde das Mulheres, Crianças e Adolescentes, e aplicando uma abordagem baseada nos direitos humanos, os esforços de cuidados pós-natais devem expandir-se para além da cobertura e da simples sobrevivência, de modo a incluir cuidados de qualidade.
Estas diretrizes visam melhorar a qualidade dos cuidados pós-natais essenciais e de rotina prestados às mulheres e aos recém-nascidos, com o objetivo final de melhorar a saúde e o bem-estar materno e neonatal.
Uma “experiência pós-natal positiva” é um resultado importante para todas as mulheres que dão à luz e para os seus recém-nascidos, estabelecendo as bases para a melhoria da saúde e do bem-estar a curto e longo prazo. Uma experiência pós-natal positiva é definida como aquela em que as mulheres, pessoas que gestam, os recém-nascidos, os casais, os pais, os cuidadores e as famílias recebem informação consistente, garantia e apoio de profissionais de saúde motivados; e onde um sistema de saúde flexível e com recursos reconheça as necessidades das mulheres e dos bebês e respeite o seu contexto cultural.
Estas diretrizes consolidadas apresentam algumas recomendações novas e já bem fundamentadas sobre cuidados pós-natais de rotina para mulheres e neonatos que recebem cuidados no pós-parto em unidades de saúde ou na comunidade, independentemente dos recursos disponíveis.
É fornecido um conjunto abrangente de recomendações para cuidados durante o período puerperal, com ênfase nos cuidados essenciais que todas as mulheres e recém-nascidos devem receber, e com a devida atenção à qualidade dos cuidados; isto é, a entrega e a experiência do cuidado recebido. Estas diretrizes atualizam e ampliam as recomendações da OMS de 2014 sobre cuidados pós-natais da mãe e do recém-nascido e complementam as atuais diretrizes da OMS sobre a gestão de complicações pós-natais.
O estabelecimento da amamentação e o manejo das principais intercorrências é contemplada.
Recomendamos muito.
Vamos discutir essas recomendações no nosso curso de pós-graduação em Aleitamento no Instituto Ciclos.
Esta publicação só está disponível em inglês até o momento.
Prof. Marcus Renato de Carvalho
www.agostodourado.com
MANAGEMENT OF ATRIOVENTRICULAR CONDUCTION BLOCK.pdfJim Jacob Roy
Cardiac conduction defects can occur due to various causes.
Atrioventricular conduction blocks ( AV blocks ) are classified into 3 types.
This document describes the acute management of AV block.
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New Directions in Targeted Therapeutic Approaches for Older Adults With Mantl...i3 Health
i3 Health is pleased to make the speaker slides from this activity available for use as a non-accredited self-study or teaching resource.
This slide deck presented by Dr. Kami Maddocks, Professor-Clinical in the Division of Hematology and
Associate Division Director for Ambulatory Operations
The Ohio State University Comprehensive Cancer Center, will provide insight into new directions in targeted therapeutic approaches for older adults with mantle cell lymphoma.
STATEMENT OF NEED
Mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) is a rare, aggressive B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) accounting for 5% to 7% of all lymphomas. Its prognosis ranges from indolent disease that does not require treatment for years to very aggressive disease, which is associated with poor survival (Silkenstedt et al, 2021). Typically, MCL is diagnosed at advanced stage and in older patients who cannot tolerate intensive therapy (NCCN, 2022). Although recent advances have slightly increased remission rates, recurrence and relapse remain very common, leading to a median overall survival between 3 and 6 years (LLS, 2021). Though there are several effective options, progress is still needed towards establishing an accepted frontline approach for MCL (Castellino et al, 2022). Treatment selection and management of MCL are complicated by the heterogeneity of prognosis, advanced age and comorbidities of patients, and lack of an established standard approach for treatment, making it vital that clinicians be familiar with the latest research and advances in this area. In this activity chaired by Michael Wang, MD, Professor in the Department of Lymphoma & Myeloma at MD Anderson Cancer Center, expert faculty will discuss prognostic factors informing treatment, the promising results of recent trials in new therapeutic approaches, and the implications of treatment resistance in therapeutic selection for MCL.
Target Audience
Hematology/oncology fellows, attending faculty, and other health care professionals involved in the treatment of patients with mantle cell lymphoma (MCL).
Learning Objectives
1.) Identify clinical and biological prognostic factors that can guide treatment decision making for older adults with MCL
2.) Evaluate emerging data on targeted therapeutic approaches for treatment-naive and relapsed/refractory MCL and their applicability to older adults
3.) Assess mechanisms of resistance to targeted therapies for MCL and their implications for treatment selection
Explore natural remedies for syphilis treatment in Singapore. Discover alternative therapies, herbal remedies, and lifestyle changes that may complement conventional treatments. Learn about holistic approaches to managing syphilis symptoms and supporting overall health.
These simplified slides by Dr. Sidra Arshad present an overview of the non-respiratory functions of the respiratory tract.
Learning objectives:
1. Enlist the non-respiratory functions of the respiratory tract
2. Briefly explain how these functions are carried out
3. Discuss the significance of dead space
4. Differentiate between minute ventilation and alveolar ventilation
5. Describe the cough and sneeze reflexes
Study Resources:
1. Chapter 39, Guyton and Hall Textbook of Medical Physiology, 14th edition
2. Chapter 34, Ganong’s Review of Medical Physiology, 26th edition
3. Chapter 17, Human Physiology by Lauralee Sherwood, 9th edition
4. Non-respiratory functions of the lungs https://academic.oup.com/bjaed/article/13/3/98/278874
Lung Cancer: Artificial Intelligence, Synergetics, Complex System Analysis, S...Oleg Kshivets
RESULTS: Overall life span (LS) was 2252.1±1742.5 days and cumulative 5-year survival (5YS) reached 73.2%, 10 years – 64.8%, 20 years – 42.5%. 513 LCP lived more than 5 years (LS=3124.6±1525.6 days), 148 LCP – more than 10 years (LS=5054.4±1504.1 days).199 LCP died because of LC (LS=562.7±374.5 days). 5YS of LCP after bi/lobectomies was significantly superior in comparison with LCP after pneumonectomies (78.1% vs.63.7%, P=0.00001 by log-rank test). AT significantly improved 5YS (66.3% vs. 34.8%) (P=0.00000 by log-rank test) only for LCP with N1-2. Cox modeling displayed that 5YS of LCP significantly depended on: phase transition (PT) early-invasive LC in terms of synergetics, PT N0—N12, cell ratio factors (ratio between cancer cells- CC and blood cells subpopulations), G1-3, histology, glucose, AT, blood cell circuit, prothrombin index, heparin tolerance, recalcification time (P=0.000-0.038). Neural networks, genetic algorithm selection and bootstrap simulation revealed relationships between 5YS and PT early-invasive LC (rank=1), PT N0—N12 (rank=2), thrombocytes/CC (3), erythrocytes/CC (4), eosinophils/CC (5), healthy cells/CC (6), lymphocytes/CC (7), segmented neutrophils/CC (8), stick neutrophils/CC (9), monocytes/CC (10); leucocytes/CC (11). Correct prediction of 5YS was 100% by neural networks computing (area under ROC curve=1.0; error=0.0).
CONCLUSIONS: 5YS of LCP after radical procedures significantly depended on: 1) PT early-invasive cancer; 2) PT N0--N12; 3) cell ratio factors; 4) blood cell circuit; 5) biochemical factors; 6) hemostasis system; 7) AT; 8) LC characteristics; 9) LC cell dynamics; 10) surgery type: lobectomy/pneumonectomy; 11) anthropometric data. Optimal diagnosis and treatment strategies for LC are: 1) screening and early detection of LC; 2) availability of experienced thoracic surgeons because of complexity of radical procedures; 3) aggressive en block surgery and adequate lymph node dissection for completeness; 4) precise prediction; 5) adjuvant chemoimmunoradiotherapy for LCP with unfavorable prognosis.
Ozempic: Preoperative Management of Patients on GLP-1 Receptor Agonists Saeid Safari
Preoperative Management of Patients on GLP-1 Receptor Agonists like Ozempic and Semiglutide
ASA GUIDELINE
NYSORA Guideline
2 Case Reports of Gastric Ultrasound
Ozempic: Preoperative Management of Patients on GLP-1 Receptor Agonists
Demography Lecture.pptx
1. DEMOGRAPHY
Professor Dr. AB Rajar, MBBS, Dip-Diab, MPH, Ph.D. CPHE
Director of Research and Innovative Center
[IBN-E-SINA UNIVERSITY]
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 1
2. LEARNING OBJECTIVES
• After completing this module, the
participants would be able to:
i. Understand the basics of demography
ii. Explain in detail the demographic process
& cycle /stages.
iii. Describe the basic measures of fertility
and mortality.
iv. Discuss the demographic transition and
population pyramid
v. Enlist the population profile of Pakistan in
the context of demographic features.
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 2
3. INTRODUCTION
• The term “Demography” is the statistical and mathematical
study of the human population's size, composition, and
spatial distribution and of changes over time in these
aspects through the operation of five fertility processes:
mortality, marriage, migration, and social mobility.
• Usually, the demographic data are drawn from various
sources such as:
• National censuses,
• Civil registration systems,
• and sample surveys.
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 3
4. INTRODUCTION
• It comprises two words; “Demos" means people, and
“Graphos” means drawing.
• The study of populations, especially regarding size and
density, fertility, mortality, growth, age distribution,
migration, and vital statistics and the integration of all
these with social and economic conditions. (Last)
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 4
5. TYPES OF DEMOGRAPHY
• It means the study of anatomy
or structure of community and
their environment in the given
population.
Static
Demography
• It deals with physiology or
function of communities as
regards changing pattern of
mortality, fertility and migration.
Dynamic
Demography
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 5
6. • Age
• Sex
• Education level
• Income
• Households, family
• Urbanization
• Public utilities
• Information on the home and
it’s facilities
• Ethnicity
Vital statistics
• Births (natality)
• Fertility
• Deaths (mortality)
• Reproduction
• Marital status (marriage, divorce)
Migration
• Emigration
• Commuters
• Immigration
Status of population Numerical changes of Population
DEMOGRAPHY
Structure (Point of Time) Dynamism (Period of Time)
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 6
7. DEFINITION OF DEMOGRAPHY
• Scientific study of human populations and changes within
them
• Mainly Concerned
1. Size of populations
2. Distribution of populations
3. Composition (structure) of populations
4. Changes (increase or decrease in population size and
its composition)
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 7
8. TERM DEFINITION
• Size:
• Size is the total number of
persons in that area.
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 8
9. TERM DEFINITION
• STRUCTURE:
• Structure is the population
distribution among its age
and sex groupings. E.g.,
• How many persons are
below five and above 40
years?
• How many females are in
the population?
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 9
10. TERM DEFINITION
• DISTRIBUTION:
• Distribution of people means
the arrangement of people
in space at a given time,
i.e.,
• Rural %age
• Urban %age
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 10
11. TERM DEFINITION
• CHANGE:
• It is the growth or decline of
the total population or one
of its structural units.
• Is the population increasing
or decreasing?
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 11
12. IMPORTANT DEFINITION
• Fertility:-Actual reproductive performance of a women
• Fecundity:- Physiological capabilities of women to
reproduce
• In Migration (IM):-Number of persons moving into the
area for permanent residence, i.e., Immigration / In
Migration (IM)
• Out Migration (OM):- Number of persons moving out of
the area to elsewhere, i.e., Emigration / Out Migration (OM)
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 12
13. IMPORTANT DEFINITION
• Net Migration = In Migration-Out Migration
• Urbanization:-Occurs due to the migration of rural
population into urban centers resulting in increasing the urban
population and growth of cities
• Population growth rate:-rate at which a given population
is expected to increase
• Closed Population:- A population with no migratory flow
either in or out so that changes in population size occur only
through births and deaths
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 13
14. IMPORTANT DEFINITION
• Closed Population:- A population with no migratory flow
either in or out so that changes in population size occur only
through births and deaths.
• Reasons for Migration:
Push Factors:-
1. Widespread
unemployment
2. Lack of farmland
3. War, law & order situation
4. Political instability
5. Religious harassment, etc.
Pull Factors:-
1. Booming economy
2. Favorable immigration
laws,
3. Free agricultural land, etc.
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 14
15. IMPORTANT DEFINITION
• REPLACEMENT LEVEL FERTILITY:-
• Two births to a couple during their reproductive life, just enough
to replace them
• In developed countries, a total fertility rate (TFR) of about 2.1 is
considered to be a replacement level
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 15
16. IMPORTANT DEFINITION
• MOMENTUM OF POPULATION GROWTH:-
• Tendency of a population to continue to grow beyond the
time when replacement level fertility has been achieved
• Characteristic of population growth - sharp decline in births
does not bring in an immediate reduction in natural increase
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 16
17. IMPORTANT DEFINITION
• POPULATION DOUBLING TIME:-
• Time that would take for a population to double in size
• 1% per year increase would cause the population to double
in about 70 years
• If the population is increasing at 3% per year, then the
doubling time will be 70 ÷ 3 = 23.3 years
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 17
19. Fertility/Nalality Mortality Marriage Migration Social Mobility
Demographic process/components/factors influencing
Population growth.
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 19
20. • FERTILITY/NATALITY:
• Fertility is defined as the ability of a man or a woman
to cause the conception of a child.
• MORTALITY:
• It means death. It is a vital event and measured by
CDR i.e. Basic mortality measure is the crude death
rate.
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 20
21. • MIGRATION:
• Migration means mobility from or within the country.
It affects the population of an area or country but
not the whole world.
• MARRIAGE:
• Marriage age is 18 years on average. If it will be 21
years, the population will decrease by 25% because
the childbearing duration of females decreases.
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 21
24. DEMOGRAPHIC CYCLE(STAGE)
1st Stage:- (High stationery)
(BR & DR )
• High birth rate and high death rate
population remain unchanged.
2nd Stage:- (Early Expanding)
• Birth rate remained unchanged, and
the high death rate began to decline
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 24
25. DEMOGRAPHIC CYCLE(STAGE)
3rd Stage:- (Late Expanding)
• Birth rate tends to fall, and high death
rate still declines further
• Population continues to grow because
birth exceeds the death
4th Stage (Low stationary):
• This stage is characterized by a low
birth rate & low death rate.
• Stability in the population.
5th Stage (Declining):
• In the declining stage birth rate is lower
than the death rate.
• Fall in population
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 25
27. POPULATION DYNAMICS
• The dynamics of change in the total population can be
understood with the help of the basic demographic
equation
• Pt1= Pt0+(B-D)+(IM-OM)
• Pt1= Future Population
• Pt0= Present Population
• (B-D) =Birth-Death
• (IM-OM) =In-migration-Out Migration
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 27
28. BASIC DEMOGRAPHIC EQUATION
• Pt1= Pt0+(B-D)+(IM-OM)
• Number of live Births to mothers living in the area (B)
• Number of Deaths of residents (D)
• Number of persons moving into the area for permanent
residence, i.e. Immigration / In Migration (IM)
• Number of persons moving out of the area to elsewhere i.e.,
Emigration / Out Migration (OM)
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 28
29. BASIC DEMOGRAPHIC EQUATION
• Natural Increase (B-D):- surplus (or deficit) of births
over deaths
• Net Migration (IM-OM):- Net effect of immigration and
emigration on an area’s population (increase or
decrease)
• POPULATION GROWTH =
Natural Increase (B-D) + Net Migration (IM-OM)
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 29
31. CRUDE BIRTH RATE:
• It is the most straightforward
measure of fertility.
• So-called crude because the
denominator includes a population
not “at risk” of giving birth (i.e.,
men and women of all ages).
CBR =
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑎𝑡 𝑚𝑖𝑑−𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
× 1000
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 31
32. • GFR is a refined measure over CBR
because it only includes women of
reproductive age.
GENERAL FERTILITY RATE (GFR).
GFR =
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
𝑁𝑜 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑛 𝑎𝑔𝑒 15−49 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
× 1000
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 32
33. • Number of live birth in a year to
1000 women in any age-specific
group.
• It is adjusted for age and
determines the fertility rate of
women in each age group.
AGE- SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE (ASFR).
ASFR =
𝐿𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑦𝑟 𝑡𝑜 𝑤𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑛 𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑥
𝑁𝑜 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑛 𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑑 𝑥
× 1000
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 33
34. • TFR is defined as the average
number of children a woman would
have if she were to pass through her
reproductive years bearing children
at the same rates as the woman now
in each age group.
TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (TFR).
TFR = Sum of ASFRs x 5 ( because ASFR is calculated in 5 years age intervals).
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 34
35. • GRR is the average number of girls
born to women if she experiences the
current fertility pattern throughout
their reproductive span (15-44 or 49
years), assuming no mortality.
GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE (GRR).
GRR =
𝐴𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑔𝑖𝑟𝑙𝑠 𝑏𝑜𝑟𝑛
𝑊𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑛 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦
𝑝𝑎𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑛 𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑛𝑜 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 35
36. • NRR is the number of daughters a newborn girl will bear during
her lifetime assuming fixed age-specific fertility and mortality
rates.
• NRR is a demographic indicator.
• NRR of 1 is equivalent to attaining approximately 2-child norm.
• NRR less than 1,then reproductive performance of population is
said to be below replacement level.
• Demographers are of the view that the goal of NRR =1 can be
achieved only if at least 60% of the eligible couples are
effectively practicing family planning.
NET REPRODUCTION RATE (NRR).
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 36
37. CHILD WOMEN RATIO (CWR).
• This ratio is used where birth
registration statistics either do not exist
or are inadequate.
• It is estimated through data derived
from censuses.
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 37
39. MORTALITY
• Mortality means death.
• Mortality is a relationship of death cases to the whole
population.
• Two basic types of mortality:
1. General (crude) mortality rate or death rate.
2. Specific mortality rates.
• Age and sex-related (special rates: infant mortality and
fetal losses)
• Cause related(diseases, injuries, suicide, homicide)
• Life expectancy(sex and age-related)
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 39
40. CRUDE DEATH RATE (CDR)
• Crude death rate(or mortality rate) is the number of
death cases in a year per 1000 of the population.
• Crude Death/Mortality Rate =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑎𝑡 𝑚𝑖𝑑−𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
× 1000
• Calculation of example country’s CDR: No of death cases =
135,000 and the mid-year population = 10,000,000
CDR =
135,000
10,000,000
= 0.0135 × 1000 = 13.5 deaths/1000
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 40
41. AGE AND SEX-RELATED MORTALITY RATE:
• CMRs can be computed for both genders and age groups.
• The age group under 1 year is separately treated (the infant
mortality).
• Age Specific Death Rate:
𝑁𝑜 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑒𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑑 𝑋 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
𝑁𝑜 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑑 𝑋
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 41
42. INFANT MORTALITY RATE:
• It is the number of deaths of infants under one year (365
days) old in a given year per 1,000 live births that occurred
in the same year.
• Age Specific Death Rate:
𝑁𝑜 𝑜𝑓 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑎𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑑𝑖𝑒𝑑 𝑖𝑛 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 365 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠
𝑁𝑜 𝑜𝑓 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑡 𝑏𝑜𝑟𝑛 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
× 1000
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 42
43. INFANT MORTALITY RATE
• This IMR rate is divided up for 4 subgroups and often
used as an indicator of the level of health in a country.
1. Perinatal Mortality within 24 hrs.
2. Post natal Mortality within first week of life.
3. Neonatal mortality, death occurring at 7 -27 days of life.
4. Post neonatal mortality, death occurring between 28 to 365
days of life.
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44. PERINATAL MORTALITY RATE:
• Perinatal mortality rate: Separated perinatal mortality (first
24 hours) does not include stillbirths:
• Perinatal Mortality Rate:
𝑁𝑜 𝑜𝑓 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑎𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑑𝑖𝑒𝑑 𝑖𝑛 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 24 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠
𝑁𝑜 𝑜𝑓 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑡 𝑏𝑜𝑟𝑛 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
× 1000
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 44
45. POSTNATAL MORTALITY RATE:
• It is the death of infants in between 1-6 days of life.
• Postnatal Mortality Rate:
𝑁𝑜 𝑜𝑓 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑎𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑑𝑖𝑒𝑑 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑛 1−6 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑙𝑖𝑓𝑒
𝑁𝑜 𝑜𝑓 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑡 𝑏𝑜𝑟𝑛 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
× 1000
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 45
46. NEONATAL MORTALITY RATE:
• It is the number of infants died between 7 – 27 days of
life in a year from the total number of infants born in
the same year.
• Neonatal Mortality Rate:
𝑁𝑜 𝑜𝑓 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑎𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑑𝑖𝑒𝑑 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑛 7−27 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑙𝑖𝑓𝑒
𝑁𝑜 𝑜𝑓 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑡 𝑏𝑜𝑟𝑛 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
× 1000
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 46
47. POST NEONATAL MORTALITY RATE:
• It is the number of infants who die between 28 – 365 days
of life in a year from the total number of infants born in the
same year.
• Neonatal Mortality Rate:
𝑁𝑜 𝑜𝑓 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑎𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑑𝑖𝑒𝑑 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑛 28−365 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑙𝑖𝑓𝑒
𝑁𝑜 𝑜𝑓 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑡 𝑏𝑜𝑟𝑛 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
×
1000
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 47
48. MATERNAL MORTALITY
• Special case of sex-related mortality.
• Represents death cases of women who die during
pregnancy and childbirth inclusive the first 42 days after the
delivery(WHO definition).
• The number per year is relatively small (developed
countries), thus maternal mortality rate is computed per
100,000 live births.
• ~ 11/100,000 in the developed countries.
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49. MATERNAL MORTALITY
• MMR is the number of women dying in pregnancy and
childbirth per 1000 live births.
• It measures the risk of women dying while pregnant.
• MMR =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑁𝑜 𝑜𝑓𝐷𝑒𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑛 𝑑𝑢𝑒 𝑡𝑜
𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑔𝑛𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑦,𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑑𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑝𝑢𝑒𝑟𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑙
𝑐𝑒𝑎𝑢𝑠𝑒𝑠 𝑎𝑡 𝑎 𝑝𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑑𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 1 𝑦𝑟
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑁𝑜 𝑜𝑓 𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ𝑠 𝑑𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒
𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑝𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑒
x 10,0000
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 49
50. CAUSE RELATED MORTALITY
• Demography is concerned only with
Diseases Motor Vehicle
Accidents, Suicide (homicide).
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 50
52. POPULATION PYRAMID
• It is a graphic representation
of the population of an area or
a country in terms of its
composition by age and sex at
a point in time.
• It provides a demographic
statement of the current age
and sex distribution of a
population.
• Males on the left side and
females on the right side.
• Children form the pyramid’s
base, while the elderly form the
tip.
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53. POPULATION PYRAMID TYPES
• USES:
• Male to female ratio.
• Population changes.
• Dependency Ratio can be calculated.
Triangular:
Broad-based, Pakistan
Beehive: Broad-centered
Singapore
Rectangular: Stationary,
United Kingdom
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 53
54. DEPENDENCY RATIO.
• It is the ratio of population who are economically not
active to those who are economically active.
• Dependency Ratio =
𝐶ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑑𝑟𝑒𝑛+𝐸𝑙𝑑𝑒𝑟𝑙𝑦
𝑊𝑜𝑟𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑑
x 100.
• Dependency Ratio =
𝑃𝑜𝑝.𝑢𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑟 15+𝑃𝑜𝑝.𝑜𝑓65𝑏𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑣𝑒
𝑃𝑜𝑝 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑛 16−64 𝑦𝑟𝑠 𝑎𝑔𝑒
x 100.
• Dependency ratio of Pakistan = 66%
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 54
55. SEX RATIO
• The overall sex ratio all over the world except India is
simply the ratio of males to females in the population.
• It is usually expressed as the number of males per 100
females.
• Sex Ratio =
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠
x 100
• In India,sex ratio is female to male ratio (number of
females per 100 males)
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57. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
• Moving from a high birth rate and
high death rate to a low birth rate
and a low death rate is called
“Demographic Transition.”
• First stage (High fertility &
mortality) is known as the old
balance.
• Second (Low fertility & mortality) is
a new balance.
• I Between these two is a stage of
imbalance in which there is high
fertility and low mortality.
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58. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION.
I. OLD BALANCE {HF & HM}.
• In the old balance, since death has to be replaced by births, a large
number of births are required to compensate for a large number of
death.
II. NEW BALANCE {LF & LM}.
• It represents the improved condition of human efficiency and health
with few deaths. Production of agricultural and industrial
commodities is greater and the lifestyle is more comfortable.
III.IMBALANCE {LM & HF}.
• It is the natural increase stage that leads to population explosion.
• This growth is helpful for under-populated nations, which need
more manpower, expanding market, and more significant military
potential.
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60. POPULATION MOMENTUM
• It is defined as the ratio of the size of the
population at that new equilibrium level to the
size of the initial population.
• It is a typical consequence of the demographic
transition. Even if a high-fertility, high-growth
population experiences an immediate drop in
fertility to replacement rate, that population will
continue to grow for several decades.
• Momentum = mv (mass x velocity).
• Population Momentum = (Population x Growth
rate).
• Population momentum of Pakistan = 191 x
1.49
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61. POPULATION MOMENTUM
• It means the more significant the
growth rate; the greater the
population and the difficulty to stop
population momentum.
• If a country’s population is reduced
by abruptly controlling a high birth
rate to replacement levels, the
population will continue to grow for
many years.
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62. POPULATION MOMENTUM
• Example:
• If Pakistan’s fertility declines to a
replacement level, even then the
population of Pakistan will continue to
grow for 40 years.
• Total fertility rate of Pak is 3.2, which
means Pakistani women on average
produce 3 to 4 children. If out of these
4, two children are daughters; these 2
girls produce 4 children each.
• So the population has built up because
potential mothers have already been
born.
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63. POPULATION DOUBLING TIME (PDT)
• It is an approximate time during which population of a country
will be approximately doubled.
• If population of a country is growing at 1% per year, it will
double in about 70 years.
• So we can get the population doubling time of any population by
this 70,divided by growth rate.
• Thus a population growing at 2% per year will double (70/2)
in 35 years.
• PDT = 70/Growth rate
• PDT of Pakistan = 70/1.49 = 47 years.
• PDT of World = 70/1.1 = 63 years almost.
5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 63