The Indian rupee snapped its two day winning streak and depreciated against the US dollar due to month-end dollar demand from banks and importers as well as outflows of foreign funds from equity and debt markets. The US dollar index fell slightly due to unfavorable economic data from the US while the euro rose against the dollar due to weakness in the dollar but gains were capped by weak data and market sentiment from Germany. Key economic indicators from the UK, US, Spain and Germany were expected and their actual figures could impact various currency pairs.

1. Currency Highlights
27th
Oct’2016
HighLights:
 Indian Rupee came under pressure to end at 66.83 on Wednesday
 US New Home Sales increased to 593,000 in the month of Sep-
tember
 GfK German Consumer Climate plunged to 9.7-mark in current
month
 UK’s BBA Mortgage Approvals expanded by 1,100 to 38,300 in
Sep’16
Indian Rupee snapped its two day winning streak and came under
pressure to depreciate marginally by one paise to end at 66.83 against
the US dollar on Wednesday. The currency depreciated on account of
month end dollar demand from banks and importers.
Moreover, outflow of foreign funds from equities and debt markets
led to negative movement in the currency. Further, weak domestic
market sentiments kept pressure on the currency. According to ex-
change data, foreign funds remained net sellers for the third day and
sold shares worth a net Rs.606.34 crs.
Indian Rupee moved in the range of 66.7550 to 66.8450 in Wednesday’s trade. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) fixed reference
rate for the dollar was seen at 66.7621 and Euro stood at 72.8174 as on 26th
Oct’16. In cross-currency trades, the rupee firmed
up further against the pound sterling to finish at 81.55 from 81.73 yesterday while dropped against the euro to 72.92 from
72.72. It also fell against the Japanese yen to close at 64.09 from per 100 yens from 63.95.
US Dollar Index fell around 0.1 percent in Wednesday’s trading session due to unfavourable economic data from the country.
However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of rise in risk aversion in global markets which led to in-
crease in demand for the low yielding currency.
US Goods Trade Balance was at a deficit of $56.1 billion in September as against a deficit of $59.2 billion in August. Prelim
Wholesale Inventories grew by 0.2 percent in last month from a drop of 0.2 percent in August. Flash Services Purchasing Man-
agers' Index (PMI) grew by 2.5 points to 54.8-mark in October when compared to 52.3-level in September. New Home Sales
increased to 593,000 in September with respect to 575,000 a month ago.
Euro against dollar rose around 0.2 percent on Wednesday on account of weakness in the dollar index. However, sharp upside
in the currency was capped as a result of unfavourable economic data along with weak global market sentiments. German Im-
port Prices grew by 0.1 percent in September as against a decline of 0.2 percent in August. GfK German Consumer Climate
plunged by 0.3 points to 9.7-mark in October from 10-level in September. Italian Retail Sales dropped by 0.1 percent in August
when compared to fall of 0.2 percent a month ago.
The Sterling Pound gained around 0.5 percent in Wednesday’s trade as a result of weaker dollar along with favourable eco-
nomic data from the country. However, weak global market sentiments restricted sharp gain in the currency. British Bankers'
Association (BBA) Mortgage Approvals expanded by 1,100 to 38,300 in September from 37,200 in August.
The Japanese Yen against dollar depreciated around 0.23 percent in Wednesday’s trading session due to rise in risk appetite in
global market sentiments in early part of the trade which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 98.5 98.69 (0.19) (0.19)
USD/INR(Spot) 66.81 66.81 66.85 100.06
USD/INR(NseOct) 66.76 66.83 (0.07) (0.10)
EUR/INR(Spot) 72.97 72.73 0.24 0.33
EUR/INR(NseOct) 72.80 72.80 0.00 0.00
GBP/INR(Spot) 81.59 81.47 0.12 0.15
GBP/INR(NseOct) 81.30 81.41 (0.11) (0.14)
JPY/INR(NseOct) 64.06 64.08 (0.02) (0.03)
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
On daily chart JPYINR prices have been trading in sym-
metrical triangle pattern and shown breakdown of its
symmetrical triangle pattern. However, price has formed
bearish candle stick on daily chart.
Moreover, price has shown breakdown of its rising trend
line at 65 levels. On the other hand price has shown
breakdown of its rising trend line at 65.60 levels on daily
chart.
Furthermore, prices have been trading below its 21 DE-
MA, which suggest short term trend is negative.
On daily chart momentum indicator RSI is trading below
at 45 levels which suggest further weakness in the pric-
es.
So for trading perspective, one could use sell in the
range of 64.10 with SL of 64.45 for target of 63.40 levels.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The pair has been trading in falling wedge pattern from
past few months and prices have been facing resistance
of its upper band at 67 levels. On daily USDINR prices
have been trading in falling channel formation from past
few weeks and prices have been facing resistance at up-
per band of channel pattern at 67.05 levels.
On the other hand, prices have been facing resistance of
horizontal trend line at 66.95 levels on daily chart.
Moreover, prices have been trading below 50 DEMA
which gives the sign of bearishness in the prices.
A momentum indictor RSI has traded below 60 levels,
which suggest further weakness in the prices.
In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown neg-
ative crossover on daily chart.
So for trading perspective, one could sell in range 66.95
with SL of 67.25 for target of 66.30.
Currency Highlights
27th
Oct’2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 66.60 66.69 66.73 66.78 66.82 66.87 66.96
JPYINR 63.84 63.95 64.00 64.06 64.11 64.17 64.28

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
27th
Oct’2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
The EURINR pair has shown breakdown of its descend-
ing triangle pattern at 74 levels on daily chart. On the
other hand price has shown breakdown of its symmet-
rical triangle pattern at 74.80 levels on daily chart.
Moreover, prices have been trading below its 21 DE-
MA, which suggest short term trend is down. The pair
has shown breakdown of its horizontal trend line at
74.70 levels on daily chart.
On daily chart momentum oscillator RSI have been trad-
ing below 60 which suggest bearishness in the prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown negative
crossover on daily chart, which add more bearishness in
the prices.
For now we can expect prices should move lower to-
wards 72.10 levels in the coming trading session.
Technical View:
On daily GBPINR prices have been taking support of its
falling trend line at 81.20 levels. Moreover, prices have
been trading below 21 HEMA, which suggest short term
trend looks positive.
The price has formed bullish hammer candle stick
pattern on daily chart, which is bullish pattern.
A momentum indicator MADC has given positive Cross
over on hourly chart, which gives the sign of bullishness
in the prices.
The momentum indictor RSI has been trading in over-
sold zone levels on daily chart, which suggest the possi-
bilities of bounce back in the in the prices.
For now we expect prices should move higher towards
82.20 levels coming trading sessions.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 80.88 81.09 81.20 81.30 81.41 81.51 81.72
EURINR 72.50 72.64 72.72 72.78 72.86 72.92 73.06

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
27th
Oct’2016
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
27.10.16 12:30 PM Spanish Unemployment Rate 20.0% 19.3% Actual < Forecast = Good
for currency; EURINR
27.10.16 01:30 PM M3 Money Supply y/y 5.1% 5.1% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; EURINR
27.10.16 01:30 PM Private Loans y/y 1.8% 1.9% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; EURINR
27.10.16 02:00 PM Prelim GDP q/q 0.7% 0.3% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; GBPINR
27.10.16 06:00 PM Core Durable Goods Orders
m/m
-0.2% 0.2% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR
27.10.16 06:00 PM Unemployment Claims 260K 261K Actual < Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR
27.10.16 06:00 PM Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.1% 0.1% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR
27.10.16 07:30 PM Pending Home Sales m/m -2.4% 1.2% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR

5. Currency Highlights
27th
Oct’2016
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Amit Pathania
Digitally signed by Amit Pathania
DN: cn=Amit Pathania, o=Choice Equity Broking Pvt. ltd,
ou=Research Department, email=amit.pathania@choiceindia.com,
c=IN
Date: 2016.10.27 09:01:31 +05'30'