#ChoiceBroking #Currencyreport: India’s Nikkei Services PMI declined to 51-mark in the previous month

1. Currency Highlights
06th
June’2016
HighLights:
 India’s Nikkei Services PMI declined to 51-mark in the previous month
 US Non-Farm Employment Change plunged sharply to 38,000 in May
 Euro Zone Final Services PMI grew marginally to 53.3-level in May
 UK’s Services PMI expanded by 1.2 points to 53.5-mark in last month
 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI fell to 52.9-mark in the prior month
Indian Rupee appreciated for second consecutive day and gained by 4 pai-
se to end at 67.25 against the US dollar on Friday. The currency had appre-
ciated on account of selling of dollars by exporters and banks. Further,
speculation of RBI intervention through state run banks led to upside in
the currency. Additionally, robust capital inflows into equities and debts
also led to appreciation in the Indian Rupee. The Reserve Bank of India
(RBI) reference rate for dollar was seen at 67.2415 and Euro stood at
74.9944 on Friday. India’s Nikkei Services Purchasing Managers' Index
(PMI) declined by 2.7 points to 51-mark in May as against a rise of 53.7-
level in April.
US Dollar Index plunged sharply around 2 percent in Friday’s trading session due to unfavourable economic data from the
country. However, sharp fall in the currency was cushioned due to rise in risk aversion in global market sentiments which led
to increase in demand for the low yielding currency.
US Non-Farm Employment Change plunged sharply to 38,000 in May as against a rise of 123,000 in April. Unemployment Rate
fell to 4.7 percent in May from 5 percent in April. Average Hourly Earnings was at 0.2 percent in last month when compared to
0.3 percent in April. Trade Balance was at a deficit of $37.4 billion in April with respect to a previous deficit of $35.5 billion a
month ago. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined by 2.8
points to 52.9-mark in May as compared to 55.7-level in earlier month. Factory Orders grew by 1.9 percent in April from 1.5
percent in March.
Euro against dollar gained around 2 percent on Friday on account of weakness in the dollar index coupled with favourable eco-
nomic data from the region. However, weak global market sentiments capped sharp gains in the currency.
Spanish Services PMI rose by 0.3 points to 55.4-mark in May as against a rise of 55.1-level in April. Italian Services PMI dropped
by 2.3 points to 49.8-level in last month from 52.1-mark in April. French Final Services PMI fell marginally to 51.6-mark in May
when compared to 51.8-level a month ago. German Final Services PMI unchanged at 55.2-mark in previous month. Euro Zone
Final Services PMI grew marginally to 53.3-level in May with respect to 53.1-mark a month ago.
The Sterling Pound rose around 0.9 percent in Friday’s trade on account of favourable services data from the country along
with weaker dollar. However, sharp upside in the currency was prevented due to weak global market sentiments. UK’s Ser-
vices PMI expanded by 1.2 points to 53.5-mark in May from 52.3-level in April.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 93.9 95.56 (1.66) (1.77)
USD/INR(Spot) 66.78 67.29 (0.51) (0.76)
USD/INR(NseJune) 67.51 67.58 (0.07) (0.10)
EUR/INR(Spot) 76.15 75.04 1.11 1.46
EUR/INR(NseJune) 75.35 75.76 (0.41) (0.54)
GBP/INR(Spot) 96.93 96.90 0.03 0.03
GBP/INR(NseJune) 97.37 97.63 (0.26) (0.27)
JPY/INR(NseJune) 61.96 61.94 0.02 0.03
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
The JPYINR price has been taking support of its rising trend
line at 61.20 levels on hourly chart. Price has given breakout
of its falling trend line at 61.70 levels.
Moreover, Pair has been trading above its 21 hourly exponen-
tial moving average which suggest short term trend remains
Up.
In addition, on four hourly chart price has formed bullish ham-
mer pattern , which is bullish reversal pattern.
On hourly chart, momentum oscillator RSI has moved above
its 61 levels, which gives positive confirmation to the prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown positive crossover
on hourly chart, which indicates short term trend remains
bullish.
For now we expect prices to move lower higher 62.50 levels
in few trading sessions.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The price has been moving in its rising channel formation
from past few weeks and price has faced resistance of its up-
per band of channel pattern at 68 levels on hourly chart.
Moreover, price have been trading below of its 21 four hourly
exponential moving average which suggest near term trend
remains down. So any rally in the prices towards 67.70 level,
used as selling opportunity.
A momentum indicator RSI has moved below 60 levels on
hourly chart, which suggest bearishness in the prices.
A momentum indictor MACD has given negative crossover
and trading below its single line on hourly chart, which gives
negative confirmation to the prices.
For now we expect prices to move higher towards 67.40 lev-
els in few trading sessions.
Currency Highlights
06th
June’2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 67.10 67.31 67.41 67.52 67.62 67.73 67.94
JPYINR 61.49 61.74 61.85 61.99 62.10 62.24 62.49

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
06th
June’2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
The pair has been trading in ascending triangle pattern and
price has shown breakdown its lower band of pattern at
75.35 levels on hourly chart. Price has retested the break-
down trend line at 75.50 levels.
On the other hand, Pair has been trading below its 21 hourly
exponential moving average which indicates that trend is
remains negative.
A momentum oscillator RSI have been trading below 60 lev-
els on hourly chart which gives the signs of bearishness to
the prices.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown negative
crossover on hourly chart which support our bearish view on
the pair.
For now we expect prices should move lower towards 74.60
levels in the coming trading sessions.
Technical View:
The prices have been moving in rising channel formation
form past few days and price has taken support of its lower
band of channel pattern at 97.20 levels on hourly chart.
On the other hand, Pair has been trading above its 15 hourly
exponential moving average which indicates that medium
term trend is remains bullish.
A momentum oscillator RSI has given positive divergence on
4 hourly chart, which gives the sign of bullishness to the pric-
es.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown positive
crossover on 4 hourly chart which support our bullish view
on the pair.
For now we expect prices should move higher towards 98
levels in the coming trading sessions.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 96.61 97.00 97.19 97.39 97.58 97.78 98.17
EURINR 75.05 75.20 75.28 75.35 75.43 75.50 75.65

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
06.06.16 11:30am German Factory Orders m/m 1.9% -0.4% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; EURINR
06.06.16 2:00pm Retail PMI 47.90 Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency;
06.06.16 7:30pm Labor Market Conditions Index
m/m
-0.9 Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
06.06.16 10:00pm Fed Chair Yellen Speaks More hawkish than expected =
Good for currency; USDINR
06th
June’2016

5. Currency Highlights
06th
June’2016
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Amit Pathania
Digitally signed by Amit Pathania
DN: cn=Amit Pathania, o=Choice Equity Broking Pvt. ltd, ou=Research
Department, email=amit.pathania@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2016.06.06 08:49:07 +05'30'