This paper explores the effects that the global financial crisis of 2008 - 2010 had on the funding and performance of the healthcare and education sectors in the Russian Federation (RF). Both education and healthcare expenditures increased in terms of total general government (GG) spending relative to GDP, partly as a result of reduced GDP. The crisis induced further centralization by increasing both the role of the federal budget in funding social services and the dependence of regions on federal transfers, but it did not result in enhanced resource allocation or more effective public spending. By revealing the inefficiencies that accumulated in education and healthcare financing and management throughout the 2000s, the crisis exposed acute funding shortages in contrast to the government's stated goals and an urgent need for reform in these sectors. The impact of the financial crisis on the delivery of education and health services appeared to be delayed and was mitigated by the resources accumulated during the pre-crisis boom. The paper concludes with several recommendations for the RF public service sector concerning improvements in the inter-governmental transfer system through increasing transparency and introducing performance-oriented budgeting.
Authored by: Irina Sinitsina
Published in 2011
Until the early 1990s, the discussions on fiscal policy primarily centered on the functions of economic stabilization, income redistribution and resource allocation. Long-term growth was not usually viewed as an end itself, and fiscal policy was often not sufficiently tailored to the different circumstances and priorities of countries at different stages of development. It is only relatively recently that the discussion has gradually focused on the links between different dimensions of quality of public finances and economic growth.
Based on the conceptual framework for linking the quality of public finances and economic growth that has been developed by the European Commission and applied to the EU Member States, this study examines the conditions under which the budgetary policy, and more specifically expenditure, revenue and financing design would be supportive of growth in the Mediterranean partner countries of the European Union. The study also highlights some of the interlinkages between fiscal policy and growth and summarises empirical findings found in the literature with particular focus on Mediterranean partner countries of the European Union.
The study concludes by highlighting possible areas in the planning and execution of fiscal policy and governance where growth enhancing interventions can be applied.
Authored by: Leonor Coutinho, Luc De Wulf, Santiago Florez, Cyrus Sassanpour
Published in 2010
The paper deals with the impact of the global financial crisis on public service delivery - mainly education and healthcare - in Belarus. The pre-crisis period of 2003-2008 was the most prosperous in recent history. These trends resulted in a pretty good fiscal performance. Nevertheless, the share of expenditures on education and healthcare in GDP was decreasing during the 2000s, which was a consequence of demographic trends and a number of reforms in these sectors. The global crisis hurt the Belarusian economy considerably. However, macro-indicators of the Belarusian economy looked pretty good in comparison to other countries, and the deterioration of public finance was limited. Thus, expenditures on both education and healthcare were mainly part of long-term trends and were able to avoid shock adjustments during the crisis. However, there are a number of medium and long-term threats to these public service sectors associated with the crisis agenda. This paper provides a number of policy recommendations to stave off these threats.
The aim of this report is a deepened recognition of employment in long-term care (LTC). It presents past and future trends in the development of LTC employment. Authors collected scattered statistical information, estimated lacking data and projected future growth in the number of employed in care services. Performed analysis includes employment in the health and social sector and across various types of care. Projections of the demand for care and supply of the LTC workforce are based on the demographic prognosis of the population size and changes in the age structure taking into account different scenarios for demographic development. Results show the growing gap between demand and supply in the LTC employment. The policy towards aging in Poland must take up the challenge of growing care needs, family changes and lower opportunities for provision of informal care.
Authored by: Stanislawa Golinowska, Ewa Kocot, Agnieszka Sowa
Published in 2014
This paper provides an overview of public expenditures on education and healthcare in Belarus, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Ukraine and some other countries of the former Soviet Union before and during the global financial crisis. Before the crisis, the governments of these countries were substantially increasing spending on education and health. The crisis adversely affected the FSU countries and worsened their fiscal situation. The analysis indicates that during the crisis, despite the fiscal constraints, public education and health expenditures have mostly been maintained or increased in almost all of these countries. However, the crisis situation was not taken as an opportunity to address these countries' key education and healthcare problems related to demographic changes, insufficient per capita expenditure levels, the low efficiency of public spending and the insufficient quality of services. These issues form an ambitious reform agenda for these countries in the medium- and long-term.
Authored by: Alexander Chubrik, Marek Dabrowski, Roman Mogilevsky, Irina Sinitsina
Published in 2011
The report aims to identify major existing gaps in the five socio-economic dimensions (economic, human, openness, environmental, and institutional) and to reveal those gaps which could potentially hinder social and economic integration of neighbor states with the EU. To achieve this, the authors aim to assess the existing trends in the size of the gaps across countries and problem areas, taking into consideration the specific origin of the gap between EU15/EU12, on the one hand, and FSU republics, EU candidates and West Balkan countries, on the other hand.
Authored by: Aziz Atamanov, Alexander Chubrik, Irina Denisova, Vladimir Dubrovskiy, Marina Kartseva, Irina Lukashova, Irina Makenbaeva, Magdalena Rokicka, Irina Sinitsina
Published in 2008
Michael Tokmazishvili
This report presents the methodology for the construction of the Financial Stress Index (FSI) and the Economic Sensitivity Index (ESI) and investigates the economic situation in twelve Central and East European Countries (CEECs) between 2001 and 2012. The objective of this paper was to capture key features of financial and economic vulnerability and examine the co-movement of economic turmoil and financial disturbances that strongly affected the CEECs in the last decade. The main finding is that the FSI can be used as a leading indicator and can be used to recognize changing trends in the index. A shift in the value of the index proves that EU accession has a positive, but minor influence on financial stability in the CEECs. On the other hand, the impact of the introduction of the euro in Estonia, Slovakia and Slovenia is ambiguous.
For most of the countries in our sample, the FSI started to grow rapidly in 2007, reaching its peak around the third quarter of 2008. Consequently, financial stress remained high for a few quarters and started to fall gradually. For a number of countries, we observe higher financial stress in the latest period of our analysis, i.e. 2010-2012. However, the value of the FSI was significantly lower than three years earlier.
The results show that indices might be helpful in predicting future recessions. Consequently, the model will be expanded by adding a forecasting module, the launch of which is planned for April 2014.
Written by Maciej Krzak and Grzegorz Poniatowski. Published in January 2014
PDF available on our website at: http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/58411
Current report aims to identify major existing gaps in the four socio-economic dimensions (economic, human, environmental, and institutional) and to reveal those gaps which could potentially hinder social and economic integration of neighbor states with the EU. To achieve this, the authors aim to assess the existing trends in the size of the gaps across countries and problem areas, taking into consideration the specific origin of the gap between EU15/EU12, on the one hand, and FSU republics, EU candidates and West Balkan countries, on the other hand.
Authored by: Alexander Chubrik, Irina Denisova, Vladimir Dubrovskiy, Marina Kartseva, Irina Makenbaeva, Magdalena Rokicka, Irina Sinitsina, Michael Tokmazishvili
Published in 2007
Until the early 1990s, the discussions on fiscal policy primarily centered on the functions of economic stabilization, income redistribution and resource allocation. Long-term growth was not usually viewed as an end itself, and fiscal policy was often not sufficiently tailored to the different circumstances and priorities of countries at different stages of development. It is only relatively recently that the discussion has gradually focused on the links between different dimensions of quality of public finances and economic growth.
Based on the conceptual framework for linking the quality of public finances and economic growth that has been developed by the European Commission and applied to the EU Member States, this study examines the conditions under which the budgetary policy, and more specifically expenditure, revenue and financing design would be supportive of growth in the Mediterranean partner countries of the European Union. The study also highlights some of the interlinkages between fiscal policy and growth and summarises empirical findings found in the literature with particular focus on Mediterranean partner countries of the European Union.
The study concludes by highlighting possible areas in the planning and execution of fiscal policy and governance where growth enhancing interventions can be applied.
Authored by: Leonor Coutinho, Luc De Wulf, Santiago Florez, Cyrus Sassanpour
Published in 2010
The paper deals with the impact of the global financial crisis on public service delivery - mainly education and healthcare - in Belarus. The pre-crisis period of 2003-2008 was the most prosperous in recent history. These trends resulted in a pretty good fiscal performance. Nevertheless, the share of expenditures on education and healthcare in GDP was decreasing during the 2000s, which was a consequence of demographic trends and a number of reforms in these sectors. The global crisis hurt the Belarusian economy considerably. However, macro-indicators of the Belarusian economy looked pretty good in comparison to other countries, and the deterioration of public finance was limited. Thus, expenditures on both education and healthcare were mainly part of long-term trends and were able to avoid shock adjustments during the crisis. However, there are a number of medium and long-term threats to these public service sectors associated with the crisis agenda. This paper provides a number of policy recommendations to stave off these threats.
The aim of this report is a deepened recognition of employment in long-term care (LTC). It presents past and future trends in the development of LTC employment. Authors collected scattered statistical information, estimated lacking data and projected future growth in the number of employed in care services. Performed analysis includes employment in the health and social sector and across various types of care. Projections of the demand for care and supply of the LTC workforce are based on the demographic prognosis of the population size and changes in the age structure taking into account different scenarios for demographic development. Results show the growing gap between demand and supply in the LTC employment. The policy towards aging in Poland must take up the challenge of growing care needs, family changes and lower opportunities for provision of informal care.
Authored by: Stanislawa Golinowska, Ewa Kocot, Agnieszka Sowa
Published in 2014
This paper provides an overview of public expenditures on education and healthcare in Belarus, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Ukraine and some other countries of the former Soviet Union before and during the global financial crisis. Before the crisis, the governments of these countries were substantially increasing spending on education and health. The crisis adversely affected the FSU countries and worsened their fiscal situation. The analysis indicates that during the crisis, despite the fiscal constraints, public education and health expenditures have mostly been maintained or increased in almost all of these countries. However, the crisis situation was not taken as an opportunity to address these countries' key education and healthcare problems related to demographic changes, insufficient per capita expenditure levels, the low efficiency of public spending and the insufficient quality of services. These issues form an ambitious reform agenda for these countries in the medium- and long-term.
Authored by: Alexander Chubrik, Marek Dabrowski, Roman Mogilevsky, Irina Sinitsina
Published in 2011
The report aims to identify major existing gaps in the five socio-economic dimensions (economic, human, openness, environmental, and institutional) and to reveal those gaps which could potentially hinder social and economic integration of neighbor states with the EU. To achieve this, the authors aim to assess the existing trends in the size of the gaps across countries and problem areas, taking into consideration the specific origin of the gap between EU15/EU12, on the one hand, and FSU republics, EU candidates and West Balkan countries, on the other hand.
Authored by: Aziz Atamanov, Alexander Chubrik, Irina Denisova, Vladimir Dubrovskiy, Marina Kartseva, Irina Lukashova, Irina Makenbaeva, Magdalena Rokicka, Irina Sinitsina
Published in 2008
Michael Tokmazishvili
This report presents the methodology for the construction of the Financial Stress Index (FSI) and the Economic Sensitivity Index (ESI) and investigates the economic situation in twelve Central and East European Countries (CEECs) between 2001 and 2012. The objective of this paper was to capture key features of financial and economic vulnerability and examine the co-movement of economic turmoil and financial disturbances that strongly affected the CEECs in the last decade. The main finding is that the FSI can be used as a leading indicator and can be used to recognize changing trends in the index. A shift in the value of the index proves that EU accession has a positive, but minor influence on financial stability in the CEECs. On the other hand, the impact of the introduction of the euro in Estonia, Slovakia and Slovenia is ambiguous.
For most of the countries in our sample, the FSI started to grow rapidly in 2007, reaching its peak around the third quarter of 2008. Consequently, financial stress remained high for a few quarters and started to fall gradually. For a number of countries, we observe higher financial stress in the latest period of our analysis, i.e. 2010-2012. However, the value of the FSI was significantly lower than three years earlier.
The results show that indices might be helpful in predicting future recessions. Consequently, the model will be expanded by adding a forecasting module, the launch of which is planned for April 2014.
Written by Maciej Krzak and Grzegorz Poniatowski. Published in January 2014
PDF available on our website at: http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/58411
Current report aims to identify major existing gaps in the four socio-economic dimensions (economic, human, environmental, and institutional) and to reveal those gaps which could potentially hinder social and economic integration of neighbor states with the EU. To achieve this, the authors aim to assess the existing trends in the size of the gaps across countries and problem areas, taking into consideration the specific origin of the gap between EU15/EU12, on the one hand, and FSU republics, EU candidates and West Balkan countries, on the other hand.
Authored by: Alexander Chubrik, Irina Denisova, Vladimir Dubrovskiy, Marina Kartseva, Irina Makenbaeva, Magdalena Rokicka, Irina Sinitsina, Michael Tokmazishvili
Published in 2007
Despite its many advantages, the Eastern and Southern Mediterranean region remains relatively backward in economic and social terms and is rightly considered a potential source of social and political instability. Its average GDP per capita lags behind the global average and is increasing slowly due to weak economic policies, poor governance and rapid population growth. The region suffers from high unemployment (especially among women and youth), poor education, high levels of income inequality, gender discrimination, underdeveloped infrastructure, continuous trade protectionism, and a poor business climate. To overcome these development obstacles, MED countries should conduct comprehensive reforms of their economic, social and political systems with the aim of ensuring macroeconomic stability, increasing trade and investment openness, improving the business climate and governance system, and upgrading infrastructure and human capital.
The main economic and political partners of the MED countries, especially the EU, can actively support this modernization agenda through liberalizing trade in some sensitive sectors (like agriculture and services), adopting a more flexible approach to MED labor migration, and cooperating in mitigating climate changes, improving educational outcomes, and promoting science and culture. This will require renewed initiatives with dedicated technical assistance and continued and enhanced financial assistance, particularly to improve infrastructure. There is also a lot of room for improvement in intra-MED cooperation but this requires resolving the protracted political conflicts in the region and taking bolder steps to remove trade and investment barriers.
Written by Marek Dąbrowski and Luc De Wulf. Published in January 2013.
PDF available on our website: http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/57925
In the report, the authors present an insight of the socio-economic drivers of economic and noneconomic activity of persons 50+, as well as their ability to adopt to SET. Not only the labour market participation, but also social engagement, beliefs, education, religious activities and housework are studied. With the use of European Social Survey data they investigate the general level of the activity among people aged 50+ in Europe as well as the relation between various aspects of activity and general labour market performance. They obtain mixed results on the concomitance of non-market and labour-market activities. At the same time they check the role of personal traits as well as pull and push factors on prematurely leaving labour market in European countries. The differences among countries in terms of the results are confronted with the institutional characteristics of the countries. Finally, selected case studies of successful activation policies are presented.
The report was released within a project NEUJOBS- “The Impact of Service Sector Innovation and Internationalisation on Growth and Productivity”, funded by the European Commission, Research Directorate General as part of the 7th Framework Programme.
Written by Izabela Styczynska, Maciej Lis, Aart Jan Riekhoff and Agnieszka Kaminska. Published in October 2013.
PDF available on our website at: http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/58346
This study is part of the project entitled “Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Countries” for the European Commission1. The study was written by Luca Barbone (CASE) Mikhail Bonch- Osmolovskiy (CASE) and Matthias Luecke (CASE, Kiel). It is based on the six country studies for the Eastern Partnership countries commissioned under this project and prepared by Mihran Galstyan and Gagik Makaryan (Armenia), Azer Allahveranov and Emin Huseynov (Azerbaijan), Aleksander Chubrik and Aliaksei Kazlou (Belarus), Lasha Labadze and Mirjan Tukhashvili (Georgia), Vasile Cantarji and Georgeta Mincu (Moldova), Tom Coupé and Hanna Vakhitova (Ukraine). The authors would like to thank for their comments and suggestions Kathryn Anderson, Martin Kahanec, Costanza Biavaschi, Lucia Kurekova, Monica Bucurenciu, Borbala Szegeli, Giovanni Cremonini and Ummuhan Bardak, as well as the dbaretailed review provided by IOM. The views in this study are those of the authors’ only, and should not be interpreted as representing the official position of the European Commission and its institutions.
Written by Luca Barbone, Mikhail Bonch-Osmolovsky and Matthias Luecke. Published in September 2013.
PDF available on our website at: http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/58264
Labour migration does not appear to have the same magnitude and socio-economic importance in Belarus as in other EaP countries. It is one of the few post-socialist economies that have preserved the dominance of the state sector and built complicated systems of subsidisation and economic support for the population designed to manage the political-business cycle (see Chubrik, Shymanovich, Zaretsky (2012)). This model has allowed the economy to grow quite steadily until recently. However, the distorted system of incentives that was created for enterprises and households has resulted in the need for a “correction”, which happened in the form of a balance of payments crisis in 2011. The impact of this factor on migration has not been fully visible yet. At the same time the relatively long period of stability and gradual, but steady, increase in welfare payments has played a role as a migration-restraining factor. In order to estimate cost and benefits of labour migration between EU and Belarus, this study utilises publically available literature as background and relies where possible on micro-data: Census-2009, Household Budget Survey (HBS), as well as relevant official data and data from polls related to the topic. Additionally, some sections of this report rely on information collected in the course of a focus group meeting with labour migrants and a series of in-depth interviews with officials from state, international, and non-governmental agencies dealing with migration. Lastly, in some cases anecdotal evidence was collected to support some of the new trends that have not yet been recorded in the statistics.
Authored by: Alexander Chubrik and Alaksei Kazlou
The current fiscal imbalances and fragilities in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMC) are the result of decades of instability, but have become more visible since 2008, when a combination of adverse economic and political shocks (the global and European financial crises, Arab Spring) hit the region. In an environment of slower growth and higher public expenditure pressures, fiscal deficits and public debts have increased rapidly. This has led to the deterioration of current accounts, a depletion of official reserves, the depreciation of some currencies and higher inflationary pressure.
To avoid the danger of public debt and a balance-of-payment crisis, comprehensive economic reforms, including fiscal adjustment, are urgently needed. These reforms should involve eliminating energy and food subsidies and replacing them with targeted social assistance, reducing the oversized public administration and privatizing public sector enterprises, improving the business climate, increasing trade and investment openness, and sector diversification. The SEMC may also benefit from a peace dividend if the numerous internal and regional conflicts are resolved.
However, the success of economic reforms will depend on the results of the political transition, i.e., the ability to build stable democratic regimes which can resist populist temptations and rally political support for more rational economic policies.
Authored by: Marek Dąbrowski
Published in 2014
The paper builds predictive scenarios for the agricultural sector of eleven Mediterranean countries (Med 11), namely Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestine, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey. First, it assesses the performance trends of the Med 11 agricultural sector with a focus on production, consumption and trade patterns, incentives, trade protection policies and trade relations with the EU and productivity dynamics and their determinants. Secondly, it presents four scenarios based on the main value chains of the agriculture sector of Med 11: animal products, fruits and vegetables, sugar and edible oil, cereals and fish and other sea products. The four scenarios are: business as usual, Mediterranean One global Player, the Euro Mediterranean Area under threat and the EU and Med 11 as Regional Player.
Written by Saad Belghazi. Published in August 2012.
PDF available on our website at: http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/57764
The purpose of this study is to explore and assess the costs and benefits of labour migration in Armenia and the potential of migration for contributing to the country’s development. We also examine how policy can be effectively formulated and implemented so that Armenia can get the most out of its migration experience. Lastly, we analyse how a phenomenon that emerged because of limited opportunities for employment – migration – evolved into a strategy towards development and prosperity.
Based on this analysis, this paper makes a strong argument in favour of implementing programs in Armenia that involve the active collaboration of government institutions and the Armenian Diaspora, duly considering the unusual influence the latter has on Armenia’s economic and human development.
Authored by: Gagik Makaryan and Mihran Galstyan
Published in 2013
The report discusses employment in the health care system in Poland based on analysis and projections of the demand and supply of medical workforce. The impact of the financial situation and policy on relativelly low employment level of medical personel was accounted for in the analysis while projections were driven by demographic changes in the following two decades. Results of different demographic variants of projections used in Neujobs project and additional scenarios show that while ageing is an important factor that may stimulate demand for provision of medical personnel, changes might be mitigated by further increase in efficiency of care. At the same time the supply of care will be affected by ageing too. The results indicate that more detailed monitoring of employment in the future will be needed in order to assure adequacy of provision of medical professionals, especially of nurses (critical gap), some medical specialists, physiotherapists and medical technical personnel.
This report was prepared within a research project entitled NEUJOBS, which has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no. 266833.
Written by Stanislawa Golinowska, Agnieszka Sowa and Ewa Kocot. Published in August 2014.
PDF available on our website at: http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/58694
Poland’s new Employee Capital Plans (PPK) scheme, which is mandatory for employers, started to be implemented in July 2019. The article looks at the systemic solutions applied in the programme from the perspective of the concept of the simultaneous reconstruction of the retirement pension system. The aim is to present arguments for and against the project from the point of view of various actors, and to assess the chances of success for the new system. The article offers a detailed study of legal solutions, an analysis of the literature on the subject, and reports of institutions that supervise pension funds. The results of this analysis point to the lack of cohesion between certain solutions of the 1999 pension reform and expose a lack of consistency in how the reform was carried out, which led to the eventual removal of the capital part of the pension system. The study shows that additional saving for old age is advisable in the country’s current demographic situation and necessary for both economic and social reasons. However, the systemic solutions offered by the government appear to be chiefly designated to serve short-term state interests and do not create sufficient incentives for pension plan participants to join the programme.
This Report is one of six studies in the first phase of the EU project on “Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Partner Countries.” It aims to provide an informed view on the potential for increased migration flows and their consequences as a result of possible changes in the migration policies of the European Union with regard to Moldova. Since Moldova’s Declaration of Independence in 1990, migration has transformed the country in ways that were impossible to predict. With over a quarter of its labour force now working abroad (a full ten percent of its population), Moldova has become the epitome of a migration-dependent country, with all the costs and benefits associated with this definition. Remittances are as high as one-third of national income, and have helped the country raise its living standards and fuel investment in housing and small businesses. Yet there have also been costs to the large migratory flows, ranging from effects on the macroeconomy to the disruption of social life. All in all, migration has been good for Moldova. This complex socio-economic phenomenon now appears to have stabilized. Further gains for Moldova and its partner countries could be achieved when new agreements are implemented and the institutions dealing with the planning of migration and protection of migrants are strengthened.
Authored by: Georgeta Mincu, Vasile Cantarji
Published in 2013
The authors evaluate the effects of potential measures to liberalize trade between the EU and the CIS using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. They look at the CIS as an aggregate and we also present results for individual CIS countries. Their CGE model takes different underlying industry specific market structures and elasticities into account. Furthermore, the model incorporates estimated non-tariff trade barriers to trade in services. The results are compared to a baseline which incorporates recent developments in the trade policy environment, i.e. the phase out of ATC, enlargement of the EU and CIS accessions to the WTO. The analysis takes agricultural liberalization, liberalization in industrial tariffs, and liberalization in services trade as well as trade facilitation measures into account. While there is important heterogeneity in the impact of FTAs on individual countries, the results indicate that the CIS as a whole would experience a negative income effect if the FTA would be limited only to trade in goods. This implies that the CIS would most likely to benefit from an FTA with the EU if it would incorporate deeper form of integration not being limited to liberalization of tariffs in goods.
Authored by: Joseph Francois, Miriam Manchin
Published in 2009
This study provides an analysis of the costs and benefits of emigration for Georgia, with an emphasis on emigration to the EU. In the concluding section we dwell on the consequences of a possible liberalization of EU migration policies with regard to Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries, and how such a policy change would affect the flow and composition of migration from Georgia to the EU. The study estimates the costs and benefits of migration through the prism of recent economics developments in Georgia and in particular the sweeping liberalization reforms of recent years. While Georgia remains a poor country, its geopolitical position as a Western outpost in the Caucasus and Central Asian region, its role as a key trade and transportation hub, the superior quality of its bureaucracy, lack of corruption, etc., provide a very different context for migration processes, turning migration into a circular phenomenon, a major factor in modernizing the Georgian economy, society, and politics. The EU should give due consideration to this phenomenon as it (re)considers its policy on migration with regard to Georgia and, potentially, other EaP countries.
Authored by: Lasha Labadze and Mirian Tukhashvili
Ukraine is a migration-intensive country, with an estimated 1.5-2 million labour migrants (about 5% of the working-age population). Slightly over a half of these migrants travel for work to the EU. This study discusses the impact of this large pool of migrants on both the sending and receiving countries. It also assesses how liberalisation of the EU visa regime, something that the EU is currently negotiating with Ukraine, will affect the stream of Ukrainian labour migrants to EU countries. Our study suggests that the number of tourists will increase substantially, whereas the increase in the number of labour migrants is unlikely to be very large. We also suggest that the number of legal migrants is likely to increase, but at the same time the number of illegal migrants will decline because currently only a third of migrants from Ukraine have both residence and work permits in the EU, while about a quarter of them stay there illegally.
Authored by: Hannah Vakhitova and Tom Coupé
Published in 2013
The paper briefly presents environment for business in Poland as of the end of the year 2005. A few comments, however, on its evolution in the course of the transition period are also made. The paper broaches administrative, legal and financial requirements to start and run business activities by both natural and legal persons. In addition, it presents government support schemes for investors. A brief description of the scope of the grey economy and corruption completes the picture of the business environment. The topic has been approached from the foreign investor's perspective. Although foreign investors are subject to the same laws as domestic (Polish) ones, in a limited number of cases they are treated differently than the latter. These cases, and specifically land purchase and employment of foreign citizens, are reviewed.
Authored by: Ewa Balcerowicz
Published in 2006
The Scientific journal “VUZF REVIEW” published from the year 2016, is issued 4 times a year and is a scientific publication on topical problems of science in various areas of economic theory and practice, management, marketing and applied research methods. The journal is international in the essence and scope. All articles pass through the procedure of reviewing by the editorial board. Editorial Board consist of well-known scientists whose activities contributes to the integration of the global scientific community. OUR AUTHORS ARE: Leading scientists; University professors; Graduate students; Students; Foreign researchers; Scientists; Applicants for degrees
Despite its many advantages, the Eastern and Southern Mediterranean region remains relatively backward in economic and social terms and is rightly considered a potential source of social and political instability. Its average GDP per capita lags behind the global average and is increasing slowly due to weak economic policies, poor governance and rapid population growth. The region suffers from high unemployment (especially among women and youth), poor education, high levels of income inequality, gender discrimination, underdeveloped infrastructure, continuous trade protectionism, and a poor business climate. To overcome these development obstacles, MED countries should conduct comprehensive reforms of their economic, social and political systems with the aim of ensuring macroeconomic stability, increasing trade and investment openness, improving the business climate and governance system, and upgrading infrastructure and human capital.
The main economic and political partners of the MED countries, especially the EU, can actively support this modernization agenda through liberalizing trade in some sensitive sectors (like agriculture and services), adopting a more flexible approach to MED labor migration, and cooperating in mitigating climate changes, improving educational outcomes, and promoting science and culture. This will require renewed initiatives with dedicated technical assistance and continued and enhanced financial assistance, particularly to improve infrastructure. There is also a lot of room for improvement in intra-MED cooperation but this requires resolving the protracted political conflicts in the region and taking bolder steps to remove trade and investment barriers.
Written by Marek Dąbrowski and Luc De Wulf. Published in January 2013.
PDF available on our website: http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/57925
In the report, the authors present an insight of the socio-economic drivers of economic and noneconomic activity of persons 50+, as well as their ability to adopt to SET. Not only the labour market participation, but also social engagement, beliefs, education, religious activities and housework are studied. With the use of European Social Survey data they investigate the general level of the activity among people aged 50+ in Europe as well as the relation between various aspects of activity and general labour market performance. They obtain mixed results on the concomitance of non-market and labour-market activities. At the same time they check the role of personal traits as well as pull and push factors on prematurely leaving labour market in European countries. The differences among countries in terms of the results are confronted with the institutional characteristics of the countries. Finally, selected case studies of successful activation policies are presented.
The report was released within a project NEUJOBS- “The Impact of Service Sector Innovation and Internationalisation on Growth and Productivity”, funded by the European Commission, Research Directorate General as part of the 7th Framework Programme.
Written by Izabela Styczynska, Maciej Lis, Aart Jan Riekhoff and Agnieszka Kaminska. Published in October 2013.
PDF available on our website at: http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/58346
This study is part of the project entitled “Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Countries” for the European Commission1. The study was written by Luca Barbone (CASE) Mikhail Bonch- Osmolovskiy (CASE) and Matthias Luecke (CASE, Kiel). It is based on the six country studies for the Eastern Partnership countries commissioned under this project and prepared by Mihran Galstyan and Gagik Makaryan (Armenia), Azer Allahveranov and Emin Huseynov (Azerbaijan), Aleksander Chubrik and Aliaksei Kazlou (Belarus), Lasha Labadze and Mirjan Tukhashvili (Georgia), Vasile Cantarji and Georgeta Mincu (Moldova), Tom Coupé and Hanna Vakhitova (Ukraine). The authors would like to thank for their comments and suggestions Kathryn Anderson, Martin Kahanec, Costanza Biavaschi, Lucia Kurekova, Monica Bucurenciu, Borbala Szegeli, Giovanni Cremonini and Ummuhan Bardak, as well as the dbaretailed review provided by IOM. The views in this study are those of the authors’ only, and should not be interpreted as representing the official position of the European Commission and its institutions.
Written by Luca Barbone, Mikhail Bonch-Osmolovsky and Matthias Luecke. Published in September 2013.
PDF available on our website at: http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/58264
Labour migration does not appear to have the same magnitude and socio-economic importance in Belarus as in other EaP countries. It is one of the few post-socialist economies that have preserved the dominance of the state sector and built complicated systems of subsidisation and economic support for the population designed to manage the political-business cycle (see Chubrik, Shymanovich, Zaretsky (2012)). This model has allowed the economy to grow quite steadily until recently. However, the distorted system of incentives that was created for enterprises and households has resulted in the need for a “correction”, which happened in the form of a balance of payments crisis in 2011. The impact of this factor on migration has not been fully visible yet. At the same time the relatively long period of stability and gradual, but steady, increase in welfare payments has played a role as a migration-restraining factor. In order to estimate cost and benefits of labour migration between EU and Belarus, this study utilises publically available literature as background and relies where possible on micro-data: Census-2009, Household Budget Survey (HBS), as well as relevant official data and data from polls related to the topic. Additionally, some sections of this report rely on information collected in the course of a focus group meeting with labour migrants and a series of in-depth interviews with officials from state, international, and non-governmental agencies dealing with migration. Lastly, in some cases anecdotal evidence was collected to support some of the new trends that have not yet been recorded in the statistics.
Authored by: Alexander Chubrik and Alaksei Kazlou
The current fiscal imbalances and fragilities in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMC) are the result of decades of instability, but have become more visible since 2008, when a combination of adverse economic and political shocks (the global and European financial crises, Arab Spring) hit the region. In an environment of slower growth and higher public expenditure pressures, fiscal deficits and public debts have increased rapidly. This has led to the deterioration of current accounts, a depletion of official reserves, the depreciation of some currencies and higher inflationary pressure.
To avoid the danger of public debt and a balance-of-payment crisis, comprehensive economic reforms, including fiscal adjustment, are urgently needed. These reforms should involve eliminating energy and food subsidies and replacing them with targeted social assistance, reducing the oversized public administration and privatizing public sector enterprises, improving the business climate, increasing trade and investment openness, and sector diversification. The SEMC may also benefit from a peace dividend if the numerous internal and regional conflicts are resolved.
However, the success of economic reforms will depend on the results of the political transition, i.e., the ability to build stable democratic regimes which can resist populist temptations and rally political support for more rational economic policies.
Authored by: Marek Dąbrowski
Published in 2014
The paper builds predictive scenarios for the agricultural sector of eleven Mediterranean countries (Med 11), namely Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestine, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey. First, it assesses the performance trends of the Med 11 agricultural sector with a focus on production, consumption and trade patterns, incentives, trade protection policies and trade relations with the EU and productivity dynamics and their determinants. Secondly, it presents four scenarios based on the main value chains of the agriculture sector of Med 11: animal products, fruits and vegetables, sugar and edible oil, cereals and fish and other sea products. The four scenarios are: business as usual, Mediterranean One global Player, the Euro Mediterranean Area under threat and the EU and Med 11 as Regional Player.
Written by Saad Belghazi. Published in August 2012.
PDF available on our website at: http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/57764
The purpose of this study is to explore and assess the costs and benefits of labour migration in Armenia and the potential of migration for contributing to the country’s development. We also examine how policy can be effectively formulated and implemented so that Armenia can get the most out of its migration experience. Lastly, we analyse how a phenomenon that emerged because of limited opportunities for employment – migration – evolved into a strategy towards development and prosperity.
Based on this analysis, this paper makes a strong argument in favour of implementing programs in Armenia that involve the active collaboration of government institutions and the Armenian Diaspora, duly considering the unusual influence the latter has on Armenia’s economic and human development.
Authored by: Gagik Makaryan and Mihran Galstyan
Published in 2013
The report discusses employment in the health care system in Poland based on analysis and projections of the demand and supply of medical workforce. The impact of the financial situation and policy on relativelly low employment level of medical personel was accounted for in the analysis while projections were driven by demographic changes in the following two decades. Results of different demographic variants of projections used in Neujobs project and additional scenarios show that while ageing is an important factor that may stimulate demand for provision of medical personnel, changes might be mitigated by further increase in efficiency of care. At the same time the supply of care will be affected by ageing too. The results indicate that more detailed monitoring of employment in the future will be needed in order to assure adequacy of provision of medical professionals, especially of nurses (critical gap), some medical specialists, physiotherapists and medical technical personnel.
This report was prepared within a research project entitled NEUJOBS, which has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no. 266833.
Written by Stanislawa Golinowska, Agnieszka Sowa and Ewa Kocot. Published in August 2014.
PDF available on our website at: http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/58694
Poland’s new Employee Capital Plans (PPK) scheme, which is mandatory for employers, started to be implemented in July 2019. The article looks at the systemic solutions applied in the programme from the perspective of the concept of the simultaneous reconstruction of the retirement pension system. The aim is to present arguments for and against the project from the point of view of various actors, and to assess the chances of success for the new system. The article offers a detailed study of legal solutions, an analysis of the literature on the subject, and reports of institutions that supervise pension funds. The results of this analysis point to the lack of cohesion between certain solutions of the 1999 pension reform and expose a lack of consistency in how the reform was carried out, which led to the eventual removal of the capital part of the pension system. The study shows that additional saving for old age is advisable in the country’s current demographic situation and necessary for both economic and social reasons. However, the systemic solutions offered by the government appear to be chiefly designated to serve short-term state interests and do not create sufficient incentives for pension plan participants to join the programme.
This Report is one of six studies in the first phase of the EU project on “Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Partner Countries.” It aims to provide an informed view on the potential for increased migration flows and their consequences as a result of possible changes in the migration policies of the European Union with regard to Moldova. Since Moldova’s Declaration of Independence in 1990, migration has transformed the country in ways that were impossible to predict. With over a quarter of its labour force now working abroad (a full ten percent of its population), Moldova has become the epitome of a migration-dependent country, with all the costs and benefits associated with this definition. Remittances are as high as one-third of national income, and have helped the country raise its living standards and fuel investment in housing and small businesses. Yet there have also been costs to the large migratory flows, ranging from effects on the macroeconomy to the disruption of social life. All in all, migration has been good for Moldova. This complex socio-economic phenomenon now appears to have stabilized. Further gains for Moldova and its partner countries could be achieved when new agreements are implemented and the institutions dealing with the planning of migration and protection of migrants are strengthened.
Authored by: Georgeta Mincu, Vasile Cantarji
Published in 2013
The authors evaluate the effects of potential measures to liberalize trade between the EU and the CIS using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. They look at the CIS as an aggregate and we also present results for individual CIS countries. Their CGE model takes different underlying industry specific market structures and elasticities into account. Furthermore, the model incorporates estimated non-tariff trade barriers to trade in services. The results are compared to a baseline which incorporates recent developments in the trade policy environment, i.e. the phase out of ATC, enlargement of the EU and CIS accessions to the WTO. The analysis takes agricultural liberalization, liberalization in industrial tariffs, and liberalization in services trade as well as trade facilitation measures into account. While there is important heterogeneity in the impact of FTAs on individual countries, the results indicate that the CIS as a whole would experience a negative income effect if the FTA would be limited only to trade in goods. This implies that the CIS would most likely to benefit from an FTA with the EU if it would incorporate deeper form of integration not being limited to liberalization of tariffs in goods.
Authored by: Joseph Francois, Miriam Manchin
Published in 2009
This study provides an analysis of the costs and benefits of emigration for Georgia, with an emphasis on emigration to the EU. In the concluding section we dwell on the consequences of a possible liberalization of EU migration policies with regard to Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries, and how such a policy change would affect the flow and composition of migration from Georgia to the EU. The study estimates the costs and benefits of migration through the prism of recent economics developments in Georgia and in particular the sweeping liberalization reforms of recent years. While Georgia remains a poor country, its geopolitical position as a Western outpost in the Caucasus and Central Asian region, its role as a key trade and transportation hub, the superior quality of its bureaucracy, lack of corruption, etc., provide a very different context for migration processes, turning migration into a circular phenomenon, a major factor in modernizing the Georgian economy, society, and politics. The EU should give due consideration to this phenomenon as it (re)considers its policy on migration with regard to Georgia and, potentially, other EaP countries.
Authored by: Lasha Labadze and Mirian Tukhashvili
Ukraine is a migration-intensive country, with an estimated 1.5-2 million labour migrants (about 5% of the working-age population). Slightly over a half of these migrants travel for work to the EU. This study discusses the impact of this large pool of migrants on both the sending and receiving countries. It also assesses how liberalisation of the EU visa regime, something that the EU is currently negotiating with Ukraine, will affect the stream of Ukrainian labour migrants to EU countries. Our study suggests that the number of tourists will increase substantially, whereas the increase in the number of labour migrants is unlikely to be very large. We also suggest that the number of legal migrants is likely to increase, but at the same time the number of illegal migrants will decline because currently only a third of migrants from Ukraine have both residence and work permits in the EU, while about a quarter of them stay there illegally.
Authored by: Hannah Vakhitova and Tom Coupé
Published in 2013
The paper briefly presents environment for business in Poland as of the end of the year 2005. A few comments, however, on its evolution in the course of the transition period are also made. The paper broaches administrative, legal and financial requirements to start and run business activities by both natural and legal persons. In addition, it presents government support schemes for investors. A brief description of the scope of the grey economy and corruption completes the picture of the business environment. The topic has been approached from the foreign investor's perspective. Although foreign investors are subject to the same laws as domestic (Polish) ones, in a limited number of cases they are treated differently than the latter. These cases, and specifically land purchase and employment of foreign citizens, are reviewed.
Authored by: Ewa Balcerowicz
Published in 2006
The Scientific journal “VUZF REVIEW” published from the year 2016, is issued 4 times a year and is a scientific publication on topical problems of science in various areas of economic theory and practice, management, marketing and applied research methods. The journal is international in the essence and scope. All articles pass through the procedure of reviewing by the editorial board. Editorial Board consist of well-known scientists whose activities contributes to the integration of the global scientific community. OUR AUTHORS ARE: Leading scientists; University professors; Graduate students; Students; Foreign researchers; Scientists; Applicants for degrees
Global Education Futures Agenda by Pavel Luksha & Dmitry PeskovPavel Luksha
The Global Education Futures Agenda is the result of four years of work that involved thousands of educational experts in Russia and worldwide. This presentation provides some of the key schemes of the Foresight Report published in early 2014, one of the most comprehensive reports on the future of education up to date,
The EU-Russia Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, which entered into force in 1997 foresees the possible establishment of a free trade area (FTA) between the parties. The aim of our study is to evaluate the possible economic, social and environmental impact of such a free trade agreement between the European Union and Russia.
The results of the analysis indicate that an EU-Russia FTA will be beneficial to the Russian Federation and the EU27. Some sectors are expected to contract in the medium term, but their importance in total output is small. Over the long run, the majority of sectors in Russia are expected to expand, while only a few sectors in the EU27 are expected to register negligible decreases in output. We estimate that welfare losses from the environmental damages would be very small for Russia (possibly even smaller due to the implementation of greener technologies), and negligible for the EU. Despite some significant negative medium-term social implications in selected sectors in Russia, the overall increase in economic activity and wages, coupled with likely domestic policies aiming at easing the impact of transitional unemployment, are expected to allow for the overall reduction in poverty rates. Overall, the results show that significant welfare gains (2.24% of GDP for Russia) would accrue from the deep FTA scenario involving a significant reduction of NTBs along with additional flanking measures, particularly on competition, IPR protection and corruption, which would help re-branding of Russia as a safe and attractive investment location. Also a number of countries such as Finland, Ireland, Netherlands, Denmark, Estonia, Slovakia, Slovenia and Sweden are expected to see their welfare increase by around 0.5% of GDP.
Authored by: Elena Jarocinska, Maryla Maliszewska, Milan Scasny
Published in 2010
This paper analyses the public finance performance and the dynamics of government expenditures on education and health in the Kyrgyz Republic in 2007-2010, when the country was hit by the global economic crisis and then by an internal political crisis in 2010. Despite these crisis conditions, public health expenditures have increased substantially. In education, recurrent expenditures have been protected, while capital investments have been cut dramatically. Both sectors suffer from chronic under-financing, which results in an insufficient quality of services. The country's fiscal situation in the medium-term is going to be difficult, so efficiency-oriented reforms need to be implemented in health care and especially in education in order to sustain the development of these critical services in Kyrgyzstan.
Authored by: Roman Mogilevsky
Published in 2011
The projection examines impact of demographic changes and changes in health status on future (up to 2050) health expenditures. Next to it, future changes in the labour market participation and their impact on the health care system revenues are examined. Impact of demography on the health care system financial balanced is examined in four different scenarios: baseline scenario, death-related costs scenario, different longevity scenario and diversified employment rates scenario. Results indicate dynamic and systematic increase of the health expenditures in the next 30 years. Afterwards the dynamics of this process is foreseen to slow down. Despite the increase of the revenues of the health care system, the system will face deficit in the close future. This holds for each scenario, however the size of the deficit differs depending on longevity and labour market participation assumptions. Results lead to a discussion on possible reforms of the health care system.
Authored by: Stanislawa Golinowska, Ewa Kocot, Agnieszka Sowa
Published in 2008
The projection examines impact of demographic changes and changes in health status on future (up to 2050) health expenditures. Next to it, future changes in the labour market participation and their imact on the health care system revenues are examined. Results indicate that due to demographic pressures health expenditures will increase in the next 40 years and health care systems in the NMS will face deficit. Moreover, health revenues, expenditures and deficit/surplus are slightly sensitive to possible labour market changes. Health care system reforms are required in order to balance the disequilibrium of revenues and expenditures caused by external factors (demographic and economic), and decrease the premium needed to cover expenditures. Such reforms should lead, on the one hand, to the rationing of medical services covered by public resources, and on the other, to more effective governance and management of the sector and within the sector.
Authored by: Stanislawa Golinowska, Ewa Kocot, Agnieszka Sowa
Published in 2008
The paper focuses on the following issues: aims and motives of monetization reforms in Russia; expected outcomes of the reform; description of the implementation process; changes of the roles of various actors and agencies; compensation of housing and communal services (HCS) expenses in the course of HCS and monetization reforms; and the major gains and failures of the reform. The paper concludes with lessons that can be derived from the Russian monetization experience for the planned Ukrainian monetization reform. The paper is based on extensive research on the monetization reform in Russia and literature published by leading Russian independent research centers including the Independent Institute for Social Policy (IISP), the Institute for Urban Economics, the Centre for Economic and Financial studies (CEFIR), and the Institute for the Economy in Transition (IET).
Authored by: Irina Sinitsina
Published in 2009
The purpose of this study is to analyze the sources of economic growth in Ukraine, which has been observed from the second half of 1999. In addition, we intend to answer the question what is the sustainability of this growth, i.e. putting in other words, what are the chances and conditions for maintaining growth in the future.
Authored by: Marek Dabrowski and Malgorzata Jakubiak
Published in 2003
In this paper the authors undertake an ex-post evaluation of whether the special economic zones (SEZs) introduced in Poland in 1994 have been successful in meeting regional development objectives. They evaluate the policy of as many of its objectives as possible: employment creation, business creation (which includes attracting foreign direct investment), income or wage effects, and environmental sustainability. They use different panel data methods to investigate this question at the powiat and gmina levels in Poland during the 1995-2011 period. It is also possible to include numerous controls to reduce the problem of the omitted variables bias such as education level, dependency rates, state ownership, general subsidies and whether the area is urban or rural. The results indicate that SEZs in Poland have been successful in a number of their objectives such as private business creation. The positive effect of the policy however mainly comes through foreign direct investment (FDI), whereas the effects on e.g. investment and employment are small or insignificant. In other areas, such as securing higher income levels and locking firms into the sustainability agenda through the adoption of green technologies and reduced air pollution, the authors find only a small positively moderating effect of the policy on what are traditionally economically disadvantaged areas in Poland that used to be dependent on the socialist production model. Hence, despite high levels of FDI, the zones policy has not managed to overcome the legacy of backwardness or lagging regions. The main policy implication of the paper is that SEZs may be successful in stimulating activity in the short run but the policy must be seen as one of necessary temporality and can therefore not stand alone. Before launching SEZs, policymakers must have plans in place for follow up measures to ensure the longer term competitiveness and sustainability implications of such an initiative. There is a need to understand the connection between the specific incentive schemes used (in this particular case tax incentives were used) and the kinds of firms and activities they attract, including the behavioral models that those incentives promote.
Authored by: Camilla Jensen
Published in 2014
The paper discusses the issue of labor force mobility in a broad sense, and analyses how changes in social security policy and the structure of the social safety net (SSN) affects different aspects of labor force mobility. The text is structured as follows: Introduction, then follows Chapter 2, which provides an overview of the labor market and social safety net developments in Russian and Ukraine over the last decade, as well as discusses common features of these countries. The Chapter 3 establishes theoretical models for different aspects of labor force mobility, discusses the availability of data on Russia and Ukraine to test these models, and provides a statistical analysis of the data. The Chapter 4 discusses results of the statistical analysis. The final chapter discusses policy conclusions that can be derived from comparison of the effect of the SSN on labor mobility in these two countries, and extends them to all countries in transition.
Authored by: Marek Gora, Oleksander Rohozynsky
Published in 2009
New financial institutions, pension funds, are being established in Central and Eastern Europe, that are also an important element of the social security system. They provide an additional source of income in old age. This source is all the more important insofar as public, pay-as-you-go pension systems in many countries are having problems with meeting previous pension commitments, which were often excessively generous and did not take into account potential changes in demographic conditions and the labour market.
The subject of our consideration will be the experiences relating to pension fund regulations from the point of view of their safety of operations in five countries of Central and Eastern Europe.
Authored by: Stanislawa Golinowska and Piotr Kurowski
Published in 2000
In this paper the author presents a general assessment of the labour market situation of older workers in the Czech Republic, starting with a more general overview of the demographic situation and emphasizing the generational differences among the young-old and older cohorts, underlying a number of different problems as well as solutions. Further in the paper she addresses the impact of the recent economic situation on employment levels, showing that the recovery in terms of employment has not yet begun and that the impact on older workers is (at least) two-fold: firstly, for older workers it is very difficult to find a new job once unemployed; secondly, if employed, the pressure on workability and the increasing demands of workplaces may be harder to bear for the older the worker. She describes a National Action Plan Supporting Positive Ageing (2013-2017) and other examples of good and transferable praxes which address some of the active ageing issues in an innovative way.
The second part of this report examines the issues of employability, workability and age-management as perceived by some of the key actors. The report goes into greater detail on the topic of paid work after retirement, which is considered an important part of the Czech economy, despite the fact that the employment of sizable groups of older workers after retirement is undeclared. Self-entrepreneurship and independent work in later life are another realm of employment that is increasing in importance in the Czech economy; however, as consulted experts argue, it is not to be taken as an unproblematic solution to late-life careers. In the last chapter the author turns her attention to the lifelong learning of older workers and to their up-skilling/retraining. In the concluding remarks, she reemphasizes the need to address the heterogeneity of the older workforce, in the sense of age/generational affiliation, health, socio-economic and other characteristics.
Authored by: Lucie Vidovicova
Published in 2014
This report looks at the prospects for economic integration between Ukraine and the European Union. The so-called Orange Revolution of late 2004 saw the question of Ukraine’s future geopolitical orientation re-emerge, and the idea of closer integration with the EU received wide social support. Yet, already by mid-2006 the political support to the idea of Euro-Atlantic integration seem to diminish. It is not clear if, how and when the idea of deeper integration with the EU will be put into action.
Although the main steps have been charted at the official level (Ukraine becoming WTO member and both sides start to gradually lower barriers to trade in manufacturing goods), neither their timing, nor the steps going beyond them can be specified with any degree of certainty. This report aims at showing the possible and optimal policy options.
Authored by:
Authored by: Dmytro Boyarchuk, Inna Golodniuk, Malgorzata Jakubiak, Anna Kolesnichenko, Mykyta Mykhaylychenko, Wojciech Paczynski, Anna Tsarenko, Vitaly Vavryschuk
Published in 2006
This report presents and discusses the findings of the “Study to quantify and analyse the VAT Gap in the EU-27 Member States”, conducted by CASE and CPB. The main aim of the study was to help better understand the recent trends in the field of VAT fraud and analyse determinants of VAT Gaps using a number of econometric techniques. The authors discuss the structure of the VAT systems in the EU, the broad trends in the EU economy over the period 2000-2011, and review the behaviour of VAT revenues, as well as the changes in VAT rates and exemptions that have occurred as a response to economic events or policy decisions. They pay particular attention to the events following the onset of the economic crisis in 2008. Moreover, they discuss the definition of VAT Gaps that has been used in this study, as well as other alternatives existing in the literature. They review possible shortcomings associated with different concepts. Subsequently, they present the results of the estimations for EU-26 countries for the period 2000-2011. The estimates are first discussed for the EU-26 as a whole, and then for each country individually. Finally, an econometric analysis of the determinants of VAT Gaps for the period under consideration is provided.
Written by Luca Barbone, Misha V. Belkindas, Leon Bettendorf, Richard M. Bird, Michael Smart and Mikhail Bonch-Osmolovsky. Published in December 2013
PDF available on our website at: http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/58372
“Bank Finance in Real Estate – Significance and Impact” (India)RITESH BAFNA
With over 8 years of Business Experience and having spent over 6 years with a revered name in Mumbai Real Estate "Vardhman Group", I was looking at an opportunity for sharing my observation about the impact and significance of Banks on Real Estate. As part of our Masters Program at JBIMS, I had to conduct a short study on a topic that interests me. This is where “Bank Finance in Real Estate – Significance and Impact” was created. Its a simple analysis and correlation of Banks and Real Estate in India.
Similar to CASE Network Report 103 - Public Expenditures on Education and Health in Russian Federation before and during the Global Crisis (20)
The report examines the social and economic drivers and impact of circular migration between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. The core question the authors sought to address was how managing circular migration could, in the long term, help to optimise labour resources in both the country of origin and the destination countries. In the pages that follow, the authors of the report present the current and forecasted labour market and demographic situation in their respective countries as well as the dynamics and characteristics of short-term labour migration flows between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic, concentrating on the period since 2010. They also outline and discuss related policy responses and evaluate prospects for cooperation on circular migration.
Podręcznik został opracowany w celu przekazania trenerom i nauczycielom podstawowej wiedzy, która może być przydatna w prowadzeniu szkoleń promujących pracę rejestrowaną. Prezentuje on z jednej strony korzyści z pracy rejestrowanej, z drugiej – potencjalne koszty związane z pracą nierejestrowaną. W pierwszej kolejności informacje te przedstawiono w odniesieniu do pracowników najemnych (rozdział 2), podkreślając w sposób szczególny to, że negatywne konsekwencje pracy nierejestrowanej są ponoszone przez całe życie. Ze względu na specyficzną sytuację cudzoziemców pracujących w Polsce konsekwencje ponoszone przez tę grupę opisano oddzielnie (rozdział 3). Ponadto zaprezentowano skutki dotyczące pracodawców z szarej strefy z wyodrębnieniem tych, którzy zatrudniają cudzoziemców (rozdział 4). Uzupełnieniem przedstawionych informacji jest opis działań podejmowanych przez państwo w celu ograniczenia zjawiska pracy nierejestrowanej w Polsce (rozdział 5) oraz prowadzonych w Wielkiej Brytanii, czyli w kraju będącym liderem w walce z szarą strefą (rozdział 6).
European countries face a challenge related to the economic and social consequences of their societies’ aging. Specifically, pension systems must adjust to the coming changes, maintaining both financial stability, connected with equalizing inflows from premiums and spending on pensions, and simultaneously the sufficiency of benefits, protecting retirees against poverty and smoothing consumption over their lives, i.e. ensuring the ability to pay for consumption needs at each stage of life, regardless of income from labor.
One of the key instruments applied toward these goals is the retirement age. Formally it is a legally established boundary: once people have crossed it – on average – they significantly lose their ability to perform work (the so-called old-age risk). But since the 1970s, in many developed countries the retirement age has become an instrument of social and labor-market policy. Specifically, in the 1970s and ‘80s, an early retirement age was perceived as a solution allowing a reduction in the supply of labor, particularly among people with relatively low competencies who were approaching retirement age, which is called the lump of labor fallacy. It was often believed that people taking early retirement freed up jobs for the young. But a range of economic evidence shows that the number of jobs is not fixed, and those who retire don’t in fact free up jobs. On the contrary, because of higher spending by pension systems, labor costs rise, which limits the supply of jobs. In general, a good situation on the labor market supports employment of both the youngest and the oldest labor force participants. Additionally, a lower retirement age for women was maintained, which resulted to a high degree from cultural conditions and norms that are typical for traditional societies.
Until now, the banking sector has been one of the strong points of Poland’s economy. In contrast to banks in the U.S. and leading Western European economies, lenders in Poland came through the 2008 global financial crisis without a scratch, without needing state financial support. But in recent years the industry’s problems have been growing, creating a threat to economic growth and gains in living standards.
For an economy’s productivity to increase, funds can’t go to all companies evenly, and definitely shouldn’t go to those that are most lacking in funds, but to those that will use them most efficiently. This is true of total external financing, and thus funding both from the banking sector and from parabanks, the capital market and funds from public institutions. In Poland, in light of the relatively modest scale of the capital market, banks play a clearly dominant role in external financing of companies. This is why the author of this text focuses on the bank credit allocation efficiency.
The author points out that in the very near future, conditions will emerge in Poland which – as the experience of other countries shows – create a risk of reduced efficiency of credit allocation to business. Additionally, in Poland today, bank lending to companies is to a high degree being replaced by funds from state aid, which reduces the efficiency of allocation of external funds to companies (both loans and subsidies), as allocation of government subsidies is not usually based on efficiency. This decline in external financing allocation efficiency may slow, halt or even reverse the process, that has been uninterrupted for 28 years, of Poland’s convergence, i.e. the narrowing of the gap in living standards between Poland and the West.
The economic characteristics of the COVID-19 crisis differ from those of previous crises. It is a combination of demand- and supply-side constraints which led to the formation of a monetary overhang that will be unfrozen once the pandemic ends. Monetary policy must take this effect into consideration, along with other pro-inflationary factors, in the post-pandemic era. It must also think in advance about how to avoid a policy trap coming from fiscal dominance.
This paper is organized as follows: Chapter 2 deals with the economic characteristics of the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the effectiveness of the monetary policy response measures undertaken. In Chapter 3, we analyse the monetary policy decisions of the ECB (and other major CBs for comparison) and their effectiveness in achieving the declared policy goals in the short term. Chapter 4 is devoted to an analysis of the policy challenges which may be faced by the ECB and other major CBs once the pandemic emergency comes to its end. Chapter 5 contains a summary and the conclusions of our analysis.
Purpose: This paper tries to identify the wage gap between informal and formal workers and tests for the two-tier structure of the informal labour market in Poland.
Design/methodology/approach: I employ the propensity score matching (PSM) technique and use data from the Polish Labour Force Survey (LFS) for the period 2009–2017 to estimate the wage gap between informal and formal workers, both at the means and along the wage distribution. I use two definitions of informal employment: a) employment without a written agreement and b) employment while officially registered as unemployed at a labour office. In order to reduce the bias resulting from the non-random selection of
individuals into informal employment, I use a rich set of control variables representing several individual characteristics.
Findings: After controlling for observed heterogeneity, I find that on average informal workers earn less than formal workers, both in terms of monthly earnings and hourly wage. This result is not sensitive to the definition of informal employment used and is
stable over the analysed time period (2009–2017). However, the wage penalty to informal employment is substantially higher for individuals at the bottom of the wage distribution, which supports the hypothesis of the two-tier structure of the informal labour market in Poland.
Originality/value: The main contribution of this study is that it identifies the two-tier structure of the informal labour market in Poland: informal workers in the first quartile of the wage distribution and those above the first quartile appear to be in two partially different segments of the labour market.
The rule of law, by securing civil and economic rights, directly contributes to social prosperity and is one of our societies’ greatest achievements. In the European Union (EU), the rule of law is enshrined in the Treaties of its founding and is recognised not just as a necessary condition of a liberal democratic society, but also as an important requirement for a stable, effective, and sustainable market economy. In fact, it was the stability and equality of opportunity provided by the rule of law that enabled the post-war Wirtschaftswunder in Germany and the post-Communist resuscitation of the economy in Poland.
But the rule of law is a living concept that is constantly evolving – both in its formal, de jure dimension, embodied in legislation, and its de facto dimension, or its reception by society. In Poland, in particular, according to the EU, the rule of law has been heavily challenged by government since 2015 and has evolved amid continued pressure exerted on the institutions which execute laws. More recently, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic transformed the perception of the rule of law and its boundaries throughout the EU and beyond (Marzocchi, 2020).
This Study contains Value Added Tax (VAT) Gap estimates for 2018, fast estimates using a simplified methodology for 2019, the year immediately preceding the analysis, and includes revised estimates for 2014-2017. It also includes the updated and extended results of the econometric analysis of VAT Gap determinants initiated and initially reported in the 2018 Report (Poniatowski et al., 2018). As a novelty, the econometric analysis to forecast potential impacts of the coronavirus crisis and resulting recession on the evolution of the VAT Gap in 2020 is reported.
In 2018, most European Union (EU) Member States (MS) saw a slight decrease in the pace of gross domestic product (GDP) growth, but the economic conditions for increasing tax compliance remained favourable. We estimate that the VAT total tax liability (VTTL) in 2018 increased by 3.6 percent whereas VAT revenue increased by 4.2 percent, leading to a decline in the VAT Gap in both relative and nominal terms. In relative terms, the EU-wide Gap dropped to 11 percent and EUR 140 billion. Fast estimates show that the VAT Gap will likely continue to decline in 2019.
Of the EU-28, the smallest Gaps were observed in Sweden (0.7 percent), Croatia (3.5 percent), and Finland (3.6 percent), the largest – in Romania (33.8 percent), Greece (30.1 percent), and Lithuania (25.9 percent). Overall, half of the EU-28 MS recorded a Gap above 9.2 percent. In nominal terms, the largest Gaps were recorded in Italy (EUR 35.4 billion), the United Kingdom (EUR 23.5 billion), and Germany (EUR 22 billion).
The euro is the second most important global currency after the US dollar. However, its international role has not increased since its inception in 1999. The private sector prefers using the US dollar rather than the euro because the financial market for US dollar-denominated assets is larger and deeper; network externalities and inertia also play a role. Increasing the attractiveness of the euro outside the euro area requires, among others, a proactive role for the European Central Bank and completing the Banking Union and Capital Market Union.
Forecasting during a strong shock is burdened with exceptionally high uncertainty. This gives rise to the temptation to formulate alarmist forecasts. Experiences from earlier pandemics, particularly those from the 20th century, for which we have the most data, don’t provide a basis for this. The mildest of them weakened growth by less than 1 percentage point, and the worst, the Spanish Flu, by 6 percentage points. Still, even the Spanish Flu never caused losses on the order of 20% of GDP – not even where it turned out to be a humanitarian disaster, costing the lives of 3-5% of the population. History suggests that if pandemics lead to such deep losses at all, it’s only in particular quarters and not over a whole year, as economic activity rebounds. The strength of that rebound is largely determined by economic policy. The purpose of this work is to describe possible scenarios for a rebound in Polish economic growth after the epidemic.
A separate issue, no less important, is what world will emerge from the current crisis. In the face of the 2008 financial crisis, White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel said: “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. And what I mean by that is an opportunity to do things that you think you could not do before.” Such changes can make the economy and society function better than before the crisis. Unfortunately, the opportunities created by the global financial crisis were squandered. Today’s task is more difficult; the scale of various problems has expanded even more. Without deep structural and institutional changes, the world will be facing enduring social and economic problems, accompanied by long-term stagnation.
"Many brilliant prophecies have appeared for the future of the EU and our entire planet. I believe that Europe, in its own style, will draw pragmatic conclusions from the crisis, not revolutionary ones; conclusions that will allow us to continue enjoying a Europe without borders. Brussels will demonstrate its usefulness; it will react ably and flexibly. First of all, contrary to the deceitful statements of members of the Polish government, the EU warned of the threats already in 2021. Secondly, already in mid-March EU assistance programs were ready, i.e. earlier than the PiS government’s “shield” program. The conclusion from the crisis will be a strengthening of all the preventive mechanisms that allow us to recognize threats and react in time of need. Research programs will be more strongly directed toward diagnosing and treating infectious diseases. Europe will gain greater self-sufficiency in the area of medical equipment and drugs, and the EU – greater competencies in the area of the health service, thus far entrusted to the member states. The 2021-27 budget must be reconstructed, to supplement the priority of the Green Deal with economic stimulus programs. In this way structural funds, which have the greatest multiplier effect for investment and the labor market, may return to favor. So once again: an addition, as a conclusion from the crisis, and not a reinvention of the EU," writes Dr. Janusz Lewandowski the author of the 162nd mBank-CASE seminar Proceeding.
Dla wielu rodaków europejskość Polski jest oczywista, trudno jest im nawet wyobrazić sobie, jak kształtowałyby się losy naszego kraju bez uczestnictwa w integracji europejskiej. Szczególnie młode pokolenie traktuje osiągnięty przez nas dzięki uczestnictwie w Unii ogromny postęp cywilizacyjny jako coś danego i naturalnego. Jednak świadomość tego, jaki był nasz punkt wyjścia, jaką przeszliśmy drogę i jak przyczyniły się do tego unijne działania oraz jakie wynikały z tego korzyści powinna nam stale towarzyszyć. Bez tej świadomości, starannego weryfikowania faktów i docenienia naszych osiągnięć grozi nam uleganie niesprawdzonym argumentom przeciwników integracji europejskiej i popełnienie nieodwracalnych błędów. Dla tych, którzy chcą poznać te fakty, przygotowany został raport "Nasza Europa. 15 lat Polski w Unii Europejskiej". Podjęto w nim ocenę 15 lat członkostwa Polski z perspektywy doświadczeń procesu integracji, z jego barierami i sukcesami, a także wyzwaniami przyszłości.
Raport jest wynikiem pracy zbiorowej licznych ekspertów z różnych dziedzin, od wielu lat analizujących wielowymiarowe efekty działania instytucji UE oraz współpracy z krajami członkowskimi na podstawie europejskich wartości i mechanizmów. Autorzy podsumowują korzyści członkostwa Polski w Unii Europejskiej na podstawie faktów, nie stroniąc jednakże od własnych ocen i refleksji.
This report is the result of the joint work of a number of experts from various fields who have been - for many years – analysing the multidimensional effects of EU institutions and cooperation with Member States pursuant to European values and mechanisms. The authors summarise the benefits of Poland’s membership in the EU based on facts; however, they do not hide their own views and reflections. They also demonstrate the barriers and challenges to further European integration.
This report was prepared by CASE, one of the oldest independent think tanks in Central and Eastern Europe, utilising its nearly 30 years of experience in providing objective analyses and recommendations with respect to socioeconomic topics. It is both an expression of concern about Poland’s future in the EU, as well as the authors’ contribution to the debate on further European integration.
Belarus was among the few post-communist countries to resign from comprehensive market reforms and attempt to improve the efficiency of the economy through administrative means, leaving market mechanisms only an auxiliary role. Since its inception, the ‘Belarusian economic model’ has undergone several revisions of a de-statisation and de-regulation kind, but still the Belarusian economy remains dominated by the state. This paper analyses the characteristic features of the Belarusian economic system – especially those related to the public sector – as well as its evolution over time during the period following its independence. The paper concludes that during the post-Soviet period, the Belarusian economy evolved from a quasi-Soviet system based on state property, state planning, support to inefficient enterprises and the massive redistribution of funds to a more flexible hybrid model where the public sector still remains the core of the economy. The case of Belarus shows that presently there is no appropriate theoretical perspective which, in an unmodified form, could be applied to study this type of economic system. Therefore, a new perspective based on an already existing but updated approach or a multidisciplinary approach that incorporates the duality of the Belarusian economy is required.
Belarusian economy has been stagnating in 2011-2015 after 15 years of a high annual average growth rate. In 2015, after four years of stagnation, the Belarusian economy slid into a recession, its first since 1996, and experienced both cyclical and structural recessions. Since 2015, the Belarusian government and the National Bank of Belarus have been giving economic reforms a good chance thanks to gradual but consistent actions aimed at maintaining macroeconomic stability and economic liberalization. It seems that the economic authorities have sustained more transformation efforts during 2015-2018 than in the previous 24 years since 1991.
As the relative welfare level in Belarus is currently 64% compared to the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries average, Belarus needs to build stronger fundaments of sustainable growth by continuing and accelerating the implementation of institutional transformation, primarily by fostering elimination of existing administrative mechanisms of inefficient resource allocation. Based on the experience of the CEE countries’ economic transformation, we highlight five lessons for the purpose of the economic reforms that Belarus still faces today: keeping macroeconomic stability, restructuring and improving the governance of state-owned enterprises, developing the financial market, increasing taxation efficiency, and deepening fiscal decentralization.
Inflation in advanced economies is low by historical standards but there is no threat of deflation. Slower economic growth is caused by supply-side constraints rather than low inflation. Below-the-target inflation does not damage the reputation of central banks. Thus, central banks should not try to bring inflation back to the targeted level of 2%. Rather, they should revise the inflation target downwards and publicly explain the rationale for such a move. Risks to the independence of central banks come from their additional mandates (beyond price stability) and populist politics.
Estonia has Europe’s most transparent tax system (while Poland is second-to-last, in 35th place), and is also known for its pioneering approach to taxation of legal persons’ income. Since 2000, payers of Estonian corporate tax don’t pay tax on their profits as long as they don’t realize them. In principle, this approach should make access to capital easier, spark investment by companies and contribute to faster economic growth. Are these and other positive effects really noticeable in Estonia? Have other countries followed in this country’s footsteps? Would deferment of income tax be possible and beneficial for Poland? How would this affect revenue from tax on corporate profits? Would investors come to see Poland as a tax haven? Does the Estonian system limit tax avoidance and evasion, or actually the opposite? Is such a system fair? Are intermediate solutions possible, which would combine the strengths or limit the weaknesses of the classical and Estonian models of profit tax? These questions are discussed in the mBank-CASE seminar Proceeding no. 163, written by Dmitri Jegorov, deputy general secretary of the Estonian Finance Ministry, who directs the country’s tax and customs policy, Dr. Anna Leszczyłowska of the Poznań University of Economics and Business and Aleksander Łożykowski of the Warsaw School of Economics.
The trade war between the U.S. and China began in March 2018. The American side raised import duties on aluminum and steel from China, which were later extended to other countries, including Canada, Mexico and the EU member states. This drew a negative reaction from those countries and bilateral negotiations with the U.S. In June 2018 America, referring to Section 301 of its 1974 Trade Act, raised tariffs to 25% on 818 groups of products imported from China, arguing that the tariff increase was a response to years of theft of American intellectual property and dishonest trade practices, which has caused the U.S. trade deficit.
Will this trade war mean the collapse of the multilateral trading system and a transition to bilateral relationships? What are the possibilities for increasing tariffs in light of World Trade Organization rules? Can the conflict be resolved using the WTO dispute-resolution mechanism? What are the consequences of the trade war for American consumers and producers, and for suppliers from other countries? How high will tariffs climb as a result of a global trade war? How far can trade volumes and GDP fall if the worst-case scenario comes to pass? Professor Jan J. Michałek and Dr. Przemysław Woźniak give answers to these questions in the mBank-CASE Seminar Proceeding No. 161.
This Report has been prepared for the European Commission, DG TAXUD under contract TAXUD/2017/DE/329, “Study and Reports on the VAT Gap in the EU-28 Member States” and serves as a follow-up to the six reports published between 2013 and 2018.
This Study contains new estimates of the Value Added Tax (VAT) Gap for 2017, as well as updated estimates for 2013-2016. As a novelty in this series of reports, so called “fast VAT Gap estimates” are also presented the year immediately preceding the analysis, namely for 2018. In addition, the study reports the results of the econometric analysis of VAT Gap determinants initiated and initially reported in the 2018 Report (Poniatowski et al., 2018). It also scrutinises the Policy Gap in 2017 as well as the contribution that reduced rates and exemptions made to the theoretical VAT revenue losses.
The paper discusses the role of the state in shaping an economic system which is, in line with the welfare economics approach, capable of performing socially important functions and achieving socially desirable results. We describe this system through a set of indexes: the IHDI, the World Happiness Index, and the Satisfaction of Life index. The characteris-tics of the state are analyzed using a set of variables which describe both the quantitative (government size, various types of governmental expenditures, and regulatory burden) and qualitative (institutional setup and property rights protection) aspects of its functioning. The study examines the “old” and “new” member states of the European Union, the post-communist countries of Eastern Europe and Asia, and the economies of Latin America. The main conclusion of the research is that the institutional quality of the state seems to be the most important for creation of a socially effective economic system, while the level of state interventionism plays, at most, a secondary and often negligible role. Geographical differentiation is also discovered, as well as the lack of a direct correlation between the characteristics of an economic system and the subjective feeling of well-being. These re-sults may corroborate the neo-institutionalist hypothesis that noneconomic factors, such as historical, institutional, cultural, and even genetic factors, may play an important role in making the economic system capable to perform its tasks; this remains an area for future research.
More from CASE Center for Social and Economic Research (20)
Resume
• Real GDP growth slowed down due to problems with access to electricity caused by the destruction of manoeuvrable electricity generation by Russian drones and missiles.
• Exports and imports continued growing due to better logistics through the Ukrainian sea corridor and road. Polish farmers and drivers stopped blocking borders at the end of April.
• In April, both the Tax and Customs Services over-executed the revenue plan. Moreover, the NBU transferred twice the planned profit to the budget.
• The European side approved the Ukraine Plan, which the government adopted to determine indicators for the Ukraine Facility. That approval will allow Ukraine to receive a EUR 1.9 bn loan from the EU in May. At the same time, the EU provided Ukraine with a EUR 1.5 bn loan in April, as the government fulfilled five indicators under the Ukraine Plan.
• The USA has finally approved an aid package for Ukraine, which includes USD 7.8 bn of budget support; however, the conditions and timing of the assistance are still unknown.
• As in March, annual consumer inflation amounted to 3.2% yoy in April.
• At the April monetary policy meeting, the NBU again reduced the key policy rate from 14.5% to 13.5% per annum.
• Over the past four weeks, the hryvnia exchange rate has stabilized in the UAH 39-40 per USD range.
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...Quotidiano Piemontese
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024
Una ricerca de il Club degli Investitori, in collaborazione con ToTeM Torino Tech Map e con il supporto della ESCP Business School e di Growth Capital
how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYCDOT TECH
Pi coins is not launched yet in any exchange 💱 this means it's not swappable, the current pi displaying on coin market cap is the iou version of pi. And you can learn all about that on my previous post.
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY WAY you can sell pi coins is through verified pi merchants. A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges and crypto whales. Looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale or ico offerings, the only way to get my coins is from buying from miners. So a merchant facilitates the transactions between the miners and these exchanges holding pi.
I and my friends has sold more than 6000 pi coins successfully with this method. I will be happy to share the contact of my personal pi merchant. The one i trade with, if you have your own merchant you can trade with them. For those who are new.
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram.
I wouldn't advise you selling all percentage of the pi coins. Leave at least a before so its a win win during open mainnet. Have a nice day pioneers ♥️
#kyc #mainnet #picoins #pi #sellpi #piwallet
#pinetwork
Latino Buying Power - May 2024 Presentation for Latino CaucusDanay Escanaverino
Unlock the potential of Latino Buying Power with this in-depth SlideShare presentation. Explore how the Latino consumer market is transforming the American economy, driven by their significant buying power, entrepreneurial contributions, and growing influence across various sectors.
**Key Sections Covered:**
1. **Economic Impact:** Understand the profound economic impact of Latino consumers on the U.S. economy. Discover how their increasing purchasing power is fueling growth in key industries and contributing to national economic prosperity.
2. **Buying Power:** Dive into detailed analyses of Latino buying power, including its growth trends, key drivers, and projections for the future. Learn how this influential group’s spending habits are shaping market dynamics and creating opportunities for businesses.
3. **Entrepreneurial Contributions:** Explore the entrepreneurial spirit within the Latino community. Examine how Latino-owned businesses are thriving and contributing to job creation, innovation, and economic diversification.
4. **Workforce Statistics:** Gain insights into the role of Latino workers in the American labor market. Review statistics on employment rates, occupational distribution, and the economic contributions of Latino professionals across various industries.
5. **Media Consumption:** Understand the media consumption habits of Latino audiences. Discover their preferences for digital platforms, television, radio, and social media. Learn how these consumption patterns are influencing advertising strategies and media content.
6. **Education:** Examine the educational achievements and challenges within the Latino community. Review statistics on enrollment, graduation rates, and fields of study. Understand the implications of education on economic mobility and workforce readiness.
7. **Home Ownership:** Explore trends in Latino home ownership. Understand the factors driving home buying decisions, the challenges faced by Latino homeowners, and the impact of home ownership on community stability and economic growth.
This SlideShare provides valuable insights for marketers, business owners, policymakers, and anyone interested in the economic influence of the Latino community. By understanding the various facets of Latino buying power, you can effectively engage with this dynamic and growing market segment.
Equip yourself with the knowledge to leverage Latino buying power, tap into their entrepreneurial spirit, and connect with their unique cultural and consumer preferences. Drive your business success by embracing the economic potential of Latino consumers.
**Keywords:** Latino buying power, economic impact, entrepreneurial contributions, workforce statistics, media consumption, education, home ownership, Latino market, Hispanic buying power, Latino purchasing power.
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
what is the best method to sell pi coins in 2024DOT TECH
The best way to sell your pi coins safely is trading with an exchange..but since pi is not launched in any exchange, and second option is through a VERIFIED pi merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and pioneers and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive amounts before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade pi coins with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangeDOT TECH
Yes. Pi network coins can be exchanged but not on bitmart exchange. Because pi network is still in the enclosed mainnet. The only way pioneers are able to trade pi coins is by reselling the pi coins to pi verified merchants.
A verified merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell it to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
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how to sell pi coins effectively (from 50 - 100k pi)DOT TECH
Anywhere in the world, including Africa, America, and Europe, you can sell Pi Network Coins online and receive cash through online payment options.
Pi has not yet been launched on any exchange because we are currently using the confined Mainnet. The planned launch date for Pi is June 28, 2026.
Reselling to investors who want to hold until the mainnet launch in 2026 is currently the sole way to sell.
Consequently, right now. All you need to do is select the right pi network provider.
Who is a pi merchant?
An individual who buys coins from miners on the pi network and resells them to investors hoping to hang onto them until the mainnet is launched is known as a pi merchant.
debuts.
I'll provide you the Telegram username
@Pi_vendor_247
Introduction to Indian Financial System ()Avanish Goel
The financial system of a country is an important tool for economic development of the country, as it helps in creation of wealth by linking savings with investments.
It facilitates the flow of funds form the households (savers) to business firms (investors) to aid in wealth creation and development of both the parties
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
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The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
3. The CASE Network is a group of economic and social research centers in Po-land,
Kyrgyzstan, Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, and Belarus. Organizations in the
network regularly conduct joint research and advisory projects. The research cov-ers
a wide spectrum of economic and social issues, including economic effects of
the European integration process, economic relations between the EU and CIS,
monetary policy and euro-accession, innovation and competitiveness, and labour
markets and social policy. The network aims to increase the range and quality of
economic research and information available to policy-makers and civil society,
and takes an active role in on-going debates on how to meet the economic chal-lenges
facing the EU, post-transition countries and the global economy.
The CASE network consists of:
• CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research, Warsaw, est.
1991, www.case-research.eu
• CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research – Kyrgyzstan,
est. 1998, www.case.elcat.kg
• Center for Social and Economic Research – CASE Ukraine, est.
1999, www.case-ukraine.kiev.ua
• CASE –Transcaucasus Center for Social and Economic Research,
est. 2000, www.case-transcaucasus.org.ge
• Foundation for Social and Economic Research CASE Moldova, est.
2003, www.case.com.md
• CASE Belarus – Center for Social and Economic Research Belarus,
est. 2007.
4. Irina Sinitsina
Contents
Executive summary ............................................................................................. 12
Introduction ......................................................................................................... 16
1. Fiscal situation ................................................................................................. 18
1.1. Pre-crisis developments ............................................................................ 18
1.2. Fiscal performance during the crisis ......................................................... 28
1.2.1. Macroeconomic developments during the crisis ......................... 28
1.2.2. Budget revenue performance ....................................................... 30
1.2.3. Major changes in the expenditure structure ................................ 35
1.2.4. Major changes in public finance management ............................ 39
1.2.5. Mid-term budget sustainability .................................................... 41
2. Education ......................................................................................................... 48
2.1. Key sector indicators ................................................................................ 48
2.2. Education indicators: Regional differentiation ......................................... 57
2.3. Education quality ...................................................................................... 59
2.4. Policy reforms in education sector ........................................................... 61
2.5. Access to education .................................................................................. 62
2.6. Spending trends ........................................................................................ 63
2.7. Education funding: Regional differentiation ............................................ 67
2.8. Efficiency of education spending ............................................................. 71
2.9. Education sector mid-term outlook .......................................................... 74
3. Healthcare ........................................................................................................ 76
3.1. Key sector indicators ................................................................................ 76
3.2. Policy reforms in the healthcare sector ..................................................... 83
3.3. Spending trends ........................................................................................ 88
3.4. Developments during the crisis ................................................................ 91
3.5. Compulsory health insurance system ....................................................... 93
3.6. Efficiency of health care spending ........................................................... 95
3.7. Mid-term outlook for the health care sector ............................................. 99
4. Conclusions and recommendations .............................................................. 101
References........................................................................................................... 109
Annex 1. Education indicators ......................................................................... 115
Annex 2. Health indicators ............................................................................... 124
CASE Network Reports No. 103 4
5. PUBLIC EXPENDITURES ON EDUCATION AND HEALTH IN RUSSIAN FEDERATION…
List of Figures and Tables
Figure 1.1. Revenues and expenditures of the RF consolidated budget, % GDP .. 19
Figure 1.2. Revenues and expenditures across various tiers of RF budgetary
system, %GDP ....................................................................................................... 20
Figure 1.3. Russian Federation’s federal structure ................................................ 22
Figure 1.4. Financial aid from the federal budget to consolidated budgets of the RF
subjects (% of GDP) .............................................................................................. 24
Figure 1.5. Major parameters of the RF Federal Budget for 2008–2010 and for the
2011-2013 planning period .................................................................................... 31
Figure 1.6. Structure of expenditures in RF budgetary system by tier in 2008-2009,
% of GDP .............................................................................................................. 36
Figure 1.7. RF federal budget projected expenditures: functional classification,
2010-2013, % of GDP ........................................................................................... 44
Figure 2.1. Pre-school education: enrolment and facilities ................................... 49
Figure 2.2. State-owned (municipal) general schools: numbers of schools, pupils
and teachers (2000/01 = 100) ................................................................................ 49
Figure 2.3. Basic vocational education: number of students and institutions........ 51
Figure 2.4. Secondary vocational education: number of students and institutions 52
Figure 2.5. Structure of entrants flows, 2009 ........................................................ 53
Figure 2.6. Admission and graduates: secondary, vocational and tertiary education
(thousands) ............................................................................................................ 54
Figure 2.7. HEIs number and admission structure ................................................ 55
Figure 2.8. The proportion of students that work at different levels of education
(2009) .................................................................................................................... 60
Figure 2.9. Public and private education expenditure, 2000–2010 ....................... 63
Figure 2.10. Structure of education expenditures in the RF budget system,
2005–2009 ............................................................................................................. 65
Figure 2.11. Education financing structure by levels and sources of funding, 2008 67
Figure 2.12. Changes in total and education expenditures of RF regions, 2008-09 . 70
Figure 2.13. Public expenditures on education and real GDP per capita:
International comparison ....................................................................................... 72
Figure 2.14. Public expenditures per pupil in secondary education and math scores
in PISA 2009 ......................................................................................................... 73
Figure 3.1. Life expectancy and infant mortality .................................................. 76
Figure 3.2. The age-standardized death rate (0-64 years per 100,000) by causes of
death in Russia (EU15=100) ................................................................................. 77
5 CASE Network Reports No. 103
6. Irina Sinitsina
Figure 3.3. Years of life expectancy lost as the result of death before 65 years
of age ..................................................................................................................... 78
Figure 3.4. Health care expenditures: International comparisons (WHO estimates) 88
Figure 3.5. Public & private health care spending (2000 prices) .......................... 90
Figure 3.6. Funding shortfalls of Territorial programs of state guarantees for the
provision of free medical assistance, % (2009) ..................................................... 92
Figure 3.7. Proportions in health care funding: budget sources and compulsory
medical insurance, 1991 – 2009 ............................................................................ 95
Figure 3.8. Per capita public health care expenditures relative to per capita GDP
($PPP): International comparison (European region) ............................................ 96
Figure 3.9. Per capita public health care expenditures relative to healthy life
expectancy (HALE): International comparison (European region) ....................... 97
Figure 3.10. Availability of healthcare infrastructure (2006, EU15=100) ............ 98
Figure A1.1. Per capita education expenditures of RF regions' consolidated
budgets, 2009 (RUR) ........................................................................................... 119
Figure A1.2. Per capita education expenditures of RF regions' consolidated
budgets as per cent of monthly regional subsistence minima, 2009 .................... 119
Figure A1.3. Pre-school education: Expenditures by consolidated budgets of RF
regions per pupil, 2009 (RUR) ............................................................................ 120
Figure A1.4. General education: Expenditures by consolidated budgets of RF
regions per pupil, 2009 (RUR) ............................................................................ 120
Figure A1.5. Secondary-level vocational education: Expenditures by consolidated
budgets of RF regions per student, 2009 (RUR) ................................................. 121
Figure A1.6. Education expenditures of RF regions' consolidated budgets, 2009 as
per cent of 2008 (constant 2008 prices) ............................................................... 121
Figure A1.7. Pre-school education expenditures by consolidated budgets of RF
regions, 2009 to 2008 (per cent, constant 2008 prices) ....................................... 122
Figure A1.8. General education expenditures by consolidated budgets of RF
regions, 2009 to 2008 (per cent, constant 2008 prices) ....................................... 122
Figure A1.9. Secondary professional education expenditures by consolidated
budgets of RF regions, 2009 to 2008 (per cent, constant 2008 prices) ................ 123
Figure A1.10. Vocational training, retraining and mid-career education
expenditures by consolidated budgets of RF regions, 2009 to 2008 (per cent,
constant 2008 prices) ........................................................................................... 123
Figure A2.1. Infant mortality per 1,000 live births, 2006-2008 average ............. 128
Figure A2.2. Infant mortality per 1,000 live births, 2006-2008 average as % of
2000-2003 average .............................................................................................. 128
Figure A2.3. Average life expectancy at birth, years (2008) ............................... 129
Figure A2.4. Physicians density (per 10 000 population, end 2008) ................... 129
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7. PUBLIC EXPENDITURES ON EDUCATION AND HEALTH IN RUSSIAN FEDERATION…
Figure A2.5. The degree of meeting the needs in outpatient medical services
(%, 2009) ............................................................................................................. 130
Figure A2.6. Number of hospital beds per 10,000 population (end 2008) .......... 130
Figure A2.7. Number of patient days spent at hospitals per capita, 2009 ........... 131
Figure A2.8. Public satisfaction with medical services, % of respondents (2009) . 131
Figure A2.9. Per capita healthcare and sports expenses of consolidated budgets of
RF regions and CMI TFs (RUR, 2009) ............................................................... 132
Figure A2.10. Per capita healthcare and sports expenses of consolidated budgets of
the RF subjects and CMI TFs, as per cent of regional subsistence minima, 2009 . 132
Figure A2.11. Hospital care: Per capita expenses of consolidated budgets of the
RF subjects and CMI TFs, 2009 (RUR) .............................................................. 133
Figure A2.12. Care at outpatient and day patient facilities: Per capita expenses of
consolidated budgets of the RF subjects and CMI TFs, 2009 (RUR) ................. 133
Figure A2.13. Emergency сall service: Per capita expenses of consolidated
budgets of the RF subjects and CMI TFs, 2009 (RUR) ...................................... 134
Figure A2.14. Physical fitness and sport: Per capita expenses of consolidated
budgets of the RF subjects and CMI TFs, 2009 (RUR) ...................................... 134
Figure A2.15. Healthcare and sports expenses of consolidated budgets of the RF
subjects and CMI TFs, 2009 as per cent of 2008 (constant 2008 prices) ............ 135
Figure A2.16. Hospital care: Expenses of consolidated budgets of the RF subjects
and CMI TFs, 2009 as per cent of 2008 (constant 2008 prices) .......................... 135
Figure A2.17. Care at outpatient and day patient facilities: Expenses of
consolidated budgets of the RF subjects and CMI TFs, 2009 as per cent of 2008
(constant 2008 prices) .......................................................................................... 136
Figure A2.18. Emergency ambulance service: Expenses of consolidated budgets of
the RF subjects and CMI TFs, 2009 as per cent of 2008 (constant 2008 prices) 136
Table 1.1. Priorities of federal financing of anti-crisis measures at the regional
level ....................................................................................................................... 33
Table 2.1. Students’ enrolment and graduation, 1995-2008 (thousand) ................ 56
Table 3.1. Availability of healthcare infrastructure (2006) ................................... 80
Table A1.1. Students number and educational forms by federal districts (FD) and
selected RF regions.............................................................................................. 115
Table A1.2. Structure of education expenditures in the RF budget system by levels
of education, 2003–2009 ..................................................................................... 116
Table A1.3. Financing specific levels of education by various levels of RF budget
system (% of consolidated education budget) ..................................................... 117
Table A1.4. Quality of learning outcomes, PISA 2003 – 2009 ........................... 118
7 CASE Network Reports No. 103
8. Irina Sinitsina
Table A2.1. Implementation of Territorial programs of state guarantees
(TPSG), 2008 ....................................................................................................... 124
Table A2.2. Expenditures on the implementation of the Priority National Project
“Health”, RUR bn ................................................................................................ 125
Table A2.3. Public spending on health care, physical fitness and sports, by levels
of budget .............................................................................................................. 125
Table A2.4. Structure of public expenditures on health care, physical fitness and
sport by RF budget system levels, 2008 – 2009 (total healthcare expenditures at
each level = 100).................................................................................................. 126
Table A2.5. Structure of health care public funding by RF budget system
levels across health care components, 2008-2009 (RF consolidated healthcare
budget = 100) ....................................................................................................... 127
Table A2.6. CMI TF revenues in 2008-2009 ...................................................... 127
CASE Network Reports No. 103 8
9. PUBLIC EXPENDITURES ON EDUCATION AND HEALTH IN RUSSIAN FEDERATION…
Abbreviations
BVE Basic vocational education
CB&EBF Consolidated budget of the RF and extra-budgetary funds
CBR Consolidated budget of the RF regions
CIT Corporate income tax
CMI Compulsory Medical Insurance
CMI TF Territorial CMI funds
FDI Foreign direct investments
FF CMI Federal Compulsory Medical Insurance Fund
PF Pension Fund
PISA Programme for International Student Assessment
PIT Personal income tax
PNP Priority National Project
SEBF State extra-budgetary funds
SVE Secondary vocational education
TEBF Territorial extra-budgetary funds
TPSG Territorial programs of state guarantees
UNDP United Nations Development Programme
UNICEF United Nations Children's Fund
UST Universal social tax
VAT Value added tax
9 CASE Network Reports No. 103
10. Irina Sinitsina
The author
Irina Sinitsina, Ph.D., is a CASE Fellow and leading researcher at the Institute
for International Economic and Political Studies (a branch of the Institute of
Economy), Russian Academy of Sciences. She specializes in the analysis of social
policy, including social security systems, social services, labor market, income,
and employment policies in Russia, Poland, Georgia, Ukraine and other FSU and
Central /Eastern European countries. She has also carried out comparative macro-economic
studies of the economies in transition in these countries. The author was
also a coordinator of Work Package 1 “Development gap between the CIS and EU
countries” of the “EU Eastern Neighbourhood: Economic Potential and Future
Development” (ENEPO ) project funded by the European Commission, as well as
an expert in the UNICEF project “Public financial management reforms in the
CEE/CIS regions: supporting UNICEF to achieve improvements in outcomes for
children and families”.
CASE Network Reports No. 103 10
11. PUBLIC EXPENDITURES ON EDUCATION AND HEALTH IN RUSSIAN FEDERATION…
Abstract
This paper explores the effects that the global financial crisis of 2008 – 2010
had on the funding and performance of the healthcare and education sectors in the
Russian Federation (RF). Both education and healthcare expenditures increased in
terms of total general government (GG) spending relative to GDP, partly as a re-sult
of reduced GDP. The crisis induced further centralization by increasing both
the role of the federal budget in funding social services and the dependence of
regions on federal transfers, but it did not result in enhanced resource allocation or
more effective public spending. By revealing the inefficiencies that accumulated in
education and healthcare financing and management throughout the 2000s, the
crisis exposed acute funding shortages in contrast to the government’s stated goals
and an urgent need for reform in these sectors. The impact of the financial crisis
on the delivery of education and health services appeared to be delayed and was
mitigated by the resources accumulated during the pre-crisis boom. The paper
concludes with several recommendations for the RF public service sector concern-ing
improvements in the inter-governmental transfer system through increasing
transparency and introducing performance-oriented budgeting.
11 CASE Network Reports No. 103
12. Irina Sinitsina
Executive summary
The established patterns of the delimitation of revenue sources and expenditure
obligations between the tiers of the Russian Federation (RF) budgetary system
resulted in a mismatch between the revenue allocation and spending responsibili-ties
at the regional and local levels of government. Among other causes, this was
the result of a high variation in the levels of the regions’ development which re-quired
considerable inter-governmental transfers in order to reduce regional differ-entiation
in budgetary sufficiency.
In the pre-crisis period, these imbalances were further aggravated following the
acceleration of growth in federal budget revenues due to an extremely favorable
external environment. This growth narrowed the budgetary autonomy of the re-gions
even more and caused many of them to be highly dependent on federal
budget transfers to carry out their expenditure mandates, including education and
healthcare services delivery. The abundance of resources allowed the government
to keep an overall budget surplus (including considerable reserves) and to substan-tially
increase expenditures throughout the budgetary system. The attempts to in-troduce
performance-oriented planning for public expenditures did not succeed,
which resulted in further complications and in the reduced transparency of the
inter-budgetary transfer system.
The slump in the real sector in late 2008 and the subsequent recession that be-gan
in early 2009 resulted in a sharp decrease in revenues in the RF budgetary
system. At the same time, the decline in revenues at the regional level was more
moderate and displayed a slower rate of contraction. Despite the fall in budget
revenues, the RF Government implemented a discretionary anti-cyclical fiscal
policy, ensuring virtually no expenditure cutbacks and initiating additional ex-penditures
to execute anti-crisis measures. As a result, expenditures at all tiers of
the budgetary system expanded relative to GDP.
Federal budget expenditures demonstrated the most rapid growth both in nomi-nal
and real terms, with inter-governmental transfers being the fastest growing
item. Transfers from the federal budget formed a cushion thanks to which the re-gions
were able to overcome the peak of the economic crisis. At the same time, the
regions became even more dependent on the decisions made at the federal level.
The share of transfers in the revenues of state extra-budgetary funds also increased
substantially, while the proportion of insurance contributions shrank. In the con-solidated
budgets of regions, it was capital expenditures that were trimmed most
intensively, while expenditures on servicing public and municipal debts, as well as
CASE Network Reports No. 103 12
13. PUBLIC EXPENDITURES ON EDUCATION AND HEALTH IN RUSSIAN FEDERATION…
expenditures on items that were (co-) financed from the federal budget demon-strated
a substantial increase.
The system of federal transfers turned out to be ill-suited to face the challenges
posed by the financial crisis. Throughout the crisis, the inter-regional distribution
of transfers was administered “manually”, depending on the strength of lobbying
pressures or taking into consideration political factors.
During the crisis, inter-governmental fiscal relations failed to capture the real
processes going on at the regional level and to effectively supplement resource
shortages in specific areas in view of declining (in real terms) regional revenues.
The crisis brought about a considerable increase in the number of deficit-ridden
regional budgets. The inter-budgetary regulations retained pro-cyclic features
characteristic of the period of economic growth and failed to protect the guaran-teed
rights of citizens of access to standard quality services.
A high dependence on federal transfers did not stimulate modernization at the
regional level. Despite expectations, the crisis did not induce more economically
rational behavior and did not result in the reduction of the number of inefficient
enterprises and hidden unemployment. Only a few regions managed to continue
reforms initiated during the pre-crisis period.
Crisis-induced centralization also brought about an increase in the federal
budget’s role in education and health funding, with a corresponding decline in the
role of regional budgets which bear the major burden of responsibility for financ-ing
the constitutional guarantees. The proportion of territorial extra-budgetary
funds in financing health care has increased, which was the result of the deeper
involvement of these funds in the implementation of the state program for free
guaranteed medical services.
The crisis coincided with the continuing trend of a declining student population
both in secondary and tertiary education, which made the need to adjust the num-ber
of teachers, as well as the number of schools and higher educational institu-tions,
even more urgent. However, the crisis did not result in noticeable changes in
the excessive number of schools or in the reduction of the number of teachers and
school personnel. In tertiary education, along with declining admission indicators,
a trend towards greater popularity of more economic forms of education (evening
courses, correspondence courses, etc.) became evident. This will most probably
result in some reduction of educational institutions’ revenues, due to a decline in
costs covered by students.
The results of 2009 demonstrate a 0.6 p.p. increase in real consolidated expend-itures
on education relative to GDP – from 4.0% GDP in 2008 to 4.6% GDP in
2009, partly due to a considerable GDP reduction. The latter is true also both for
13 CASE Network Reports No. 103
14. Irina Sinitsina
the federal budget (from 0.9% to 1.1 % GDP) and the consolidated regional budget
expenditures (from 3.1% to 3.4% GDP).
The crisis affected neither the size nor the geography of education spending
from regional budgets. In the majority of regions, education funding continued to
grow in line with general budget spending, or even displayed higher dynamics. At
the same time, in most cases, this growth did not compensate for inflation; in con-stant
prices, only about half of the regions recorded positive growth. Quite a few
regions maintained (or even significantly raised) education spending even under
falling revenues and declining general spending.
Education funding figures by levels of education reveal that pre-school educa-tion
suffered the least. Meanwhile, expenditures on secondary education have
followed the overall education spending trends, while vocational training and re-training
seem to have suffered most from the crisis, with 52 regions reducing their
spending on this item, including 29 regions with a fall of over 10% and 11 regions
where spending was cut by more than 20%. The latter list includes almost exclu-sively
the regions with the largest output decline and the worst labor market situa-tion.
Due to a drop in GDP in 2009, the percentage of health care funding in GDP
increased compared to 2008 (from 3.7% GDP to 4.2% GDP). Compared to educa-tion,
regional health care spending suffered noticeably more from the crisis, even
despite the fact that spending from consolidated regional budgets was supplement-ed
by expenditures from the Medical Insurance Territorial Funds. In 2008 prices,
53 regions, almost two-thirds of the total, reduced their health spending in 2009
compared to 2008; of those, 20 RF subjects decreased their expenditures by over
10%. In the areas most heavily affected by the crisis, this reduction amounted to
20 – 25%. On the other hand, only 11 regions increased their health spending by
more than 10%, predominantly due to federal transfers.
The crisis revealed the major problems that accumulated in healthcare financ-ing
throughout the last decade: the unfinished and inconsistent medical insurance
reform, the inadequate accessibility of services, an increase in fee-based services,
etc. Among many factors affecting the low efficiency of public healthcare spend-ing
in Russia, a pivotal role is played by the acute shortage of funds despite the
stated goals of the government.
By the end of 2009, the financial deficit of the Program of state guarantees for
the provision of free medical assistance in 75 regions amounted to 23.3% of health
care funding in the RF consolidated budget for the same year. Consequently, nor-mative
standards for all categories of free medical assistance were substantially
under-financed in the majority of regions.
CASE Network Reports No. 103 14
15. PUBLIC EXPENDITURES ON EDUCATION AND HEALTH IN RUSSIAN FEDERATION…
In the mid-term perspective, federal budget obligations remain high relative to
GDP, considerably exceeding the respective proportion in 2008. On the whole, the
post-crisis public expenditure adjustment reflects a trend towards a slowdown of
public expenditure growth typical for 2009 and partly for 2010, and thus consti-tutes
a move towards a more balanced budget. Yet the internal structure of ex-penditures
raises serious concerns. The concerns relate, for example, to an increase
in defense expenditures, and the continuing funding of programs that cannot be
regarded as the country’s priority targets. On the other hand, the politically moti-vated
promises of a substantial increase in pension expenditures could bring about
an urgent need for ad hoc additional funding, which would ruin the fragile budget
sustainability.
At the regional level, the planned reduction of federal transfers and the limited
revenue potential of regional budgets put under question the ability of the latter to
finance their expenditure obligations in education and health services. The result
could be an increase in paid services accompanied by a reduction in the volume
and quality of free state-guaranteed services.
The impact of the financial crisis upon the delivery of education and health
services appears to be delayed. The major consequences will be seen when the
resources accumulated during the pre-crisis boom become exhausted; the situation
could further deteriorate in the case of any new external shock.
One of the main recommendations for the public service sector, including edu-cation
and healthcare, is to improve the inter-governmental transfer system with
regard to increasing its transparency and enhancing efficiency by introducing per-formance-
oriented budgeting. Since the federal budget potential to finance these
transfers is decreasing, there is a clear need for the optimization of the number of
subsidies, as well as for proper channeling of the transferred resources in accord-ance
with government priorities. The development of a set of indicators that would
allow policymakers to evaluate the efficiency of budget expenditures at the re-gional
and municipal levels would be of great value.
15 CASE Network Reports No. 103
16. Irina Sinitsina
Introduction1
This paper has been prepared within the framework of the project “The Impact
of the Global Financial Crisis on Public Service Delivery in Economies of the
former Soviet Union,” which is supported by the Local Government and Public
Service Reform Initiative of the Open Society Institute.2 This project aims to ana-lyze
the attitudes of the governments in the countries of the Former Soviet Union
towards the financing of key public services in education and health under the
conditions of the global economic crisis. The purpose of the current study is to
analyze the effect the global financial crisis had on education and health services
delivery in Russia.
The study explores:
economic, fiscal and policy developments in RF during the pre-crisis
period and during the crisis, with special attention paid to the fiscal
sustainability in the mid-term perspective;
educational status - government policies and government spending on
education, and the impact of the crisis on the education sector’s fi-nancing
and performance;
health status - government policies and government spending on
health care provision, and the impact of the crisis on the healthcare
service sector’s financing and performance;
regional differences in education and health care provision, and the
crisis’ impact on regional differences in financing specific areas with-in
education and healthcare services.
The study is focused on the following major issues related to the crisis’ impact
on education and health care delivery:
analysis of the budget situation before and during the crisis period
with a primary focus on major policy developments in public finance
as the main prerequisite for maintaining the sustainable public financ-ing
of service delivery in the spheres of education and health care;
1 This paper has been prepared with the editorial assistance of Paulina Szyrmer.
2 The author is grateful to Marek Dąbrowski for his time and efforts spent editing and
improving this paper.
CASE Network Reports No. 103 16
17. PUBLIC EXPENDITURES ON EDUCATION AND HEALTH IN RUSSIAN FEDERATION…
analysis of the key sector indicators for each of the spheres (in health
care: health status of the population, mortality and morbidity rates,
availability of personnel and infrastructure, access to health services
and regional differentiation; in education: enrolment by education cy-cle,
availability of teachers and facilities, education quality as meas-ured
by PISA testing system, public vs. private provision of education
services, demographic trends and regional differentiation);
policy reforms and spending trends in education and health care be-fore
and during the crisis period;
efficiency of spending based on international comparisons;
mid-term outlook for each of the sectors in terms of spending and pro-visional
indicators;
a regional outlook of the crisis’ impact on funding of education and
health care.
The report is prepared as a desk study. The dominant analytical framework was
that of analyzing statistical and other data, making use of statistical presentation
and analytic narratives methods. Other methods of transparent presenta-tion/
mapping of various institutional and policy developments (in tabular or in
graphic form) were also used, e.g. most of the results in the regional part of the
study is presented in the form of index maps.
The study is based on a multitude of statistical data compendiums and program-matic
and policy documents developed and published by several RF Government
institutions: Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), RF Federal Treasury, RF Min-istry
of Finance, RF Ministry of Health and Social Development, RF Ministry of
Regional Development, RF Ministry of Science and Education, Federal Fund of
Compulsory Medical Insurance, etc. International comparisons were provided on the
basis of the WHO statistical database, the “European Health For All” database, the
UNICEF and UNESCO statistical databases, the Programme for International Stu-dent
Assessment (PISA) database, the Times “Higher Education World University
Ranking” results, and the World Bank World Development Indicators database.
Reviewing the various analytical reports provided by the leading RF research
centers and institutions was of great help. These included: The Gaidar Institute for
Economic Policy (prior to 2010, the Institute for the Economy in Transition), In-dependent
Institute for Social Policy (IISP), Urban Economics Institute, Institute
for Public Finance Reform (IPFR), Center for Macroeconomics and Short-Term
Forecasts, Center for Fiscal Policy, Institutes for Educational Studies and for the
Economy of Health Care of the Higher School of Economics (HSE). The study
also used WHO and UNESCO analytical studies as well as reports prepared by the
World Bank and UNDP.
17 CASE Network Reports No. 103
18. Irina Sinitsina
1. Fiscal situation
1.1. Pre-crisis developments
Russia’s high rates of economic growth over the past decade lay at the core of
impressive changes in the country’s socio-economic development in the early 21st
century. During the nine years since 1999 (when economic growth started), the
GDP growth amounted to 83% as compared to 1998. GDP per capita (PPP) in-creased
from $6,758 in 1999 to $14,692 in 2007. The rapid growth had an impact
on the population’s real incomes and household consumption. Poverty rate was
declining, but income differentiation was on the rise. All major fiscal and mone-tary
indicators exhibited a sustained growth. Positive shifts took place in the tax,
fiscal, corporate, labor and land legislation.
The inflow of foreign currency contributed to a dramatic reduction of public ex-ternal
debt. Yet, whereas prior to 2007 the external debt burden relative to GDP
declined, afterwards it started to grow, with public debt exceeding US$500 billion in
2007. That greatly increased Russia’s dependence on fluctuation in the global finan-cial
markets. At the same time, inflows of foreign currency and the consequent
strengthening of the ruble, both in nominal and real terms, have reduced the compet-itiveness
of domestic producers and hindered the diversification of manufacturing.
In spite of improving macroeconomic indicators, political and legal institutions rec-orded
a setback, which contributed to the deterioration of Russia’s investment cli-mate
and discouraged FDI. By 2008, Russia’s performance worsened compared to
2003 according to the World Bank Governance Indicators of Government Effective-ness
and Regulatory Quality. Russia did not make any significant progress according
to indicators for the Rule of Law and Control of Corruption.
The rapid economic growth of 2000-2007 was determined, to a substantial de-gree,
by the situation on the oil market. The growth in oil prices that had started in
1999 did not stop throughout the entire pre-crisis period.
In spite of rapid economic growth prior to the crisis, the Russian economy con-tinued
to experience serious distortions and imbalances that challenged long-term
economic development, inlcuding:
high dependence of the economy on raw materials exports (in 1999,
the proportion of energy products in Russian exports amounted to
44%, in 2007 it rose to 62%); overall raw materials exports, including
CASE Network Reports No. 103 18
19. PUBLIC EXPENDITURES ON EDUCATION AND HEALTH IN RUSSIAN FEDERATION…
metals, timber and coal accounted for about three fourths of total Rus-sian
exports in 2007, while the share of machinery and equipment ex-ports
fell from 8.8% in 2000 to 5.6% in 2007;
high dependence of the federal budget on oil and gas revenues (in
2000-2002, the oil and gas industry provided about a quarter of federal
budget revenues; in 2005-2007, this proportion exceeded 40%);
inadequate competitiveness of Russian goods (while the volume of ex-ports
increased by 3.5 times that of imports grew fivefold in 2000-
2007);
low share of FDI in total capital inflows (whereas in 2000, FDI ac-counted
for about 40% of total foreign investments, in 2005-2007
their share decreased to 25-30%).
The issues of economic diversification, enhancing competitiveness, strengthen-ing
the institutional environment, and improving the investment climate were for-mulated
as priorities of Russia’s economic policy in the early 2000s (the so-called
«Gref’s program»). However, the period of rapid economic growth in 2000-2007
did not help to solve these problems. Their persistence caused a sharp output de-cline
in response to the financial crisis of 2008-2009, and will affect the conditions
of economic recovery in the medium term.
Russia represents a low level of fiscal redistribution, significantly below that of
most countries in Europe. This fact determines a relatively low level of public
expenditure on social services. However, a rapid increase in fossil fuel prices in
2005-2007 helped budget revenues grow at a faster rate: in 2007, general govern-ment
(GG) revenues exceeded 40% of GDP (see Fig. 1.1).
Figure 1.1. Revenues and expenditures of the RF consolidated budget, % GDP
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
0 5
% GDP %
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
10
0 2 4 6 8
-2
-4
-6
-8
Revenues Expenditures Deficit (-) /Surplus (+) (right axis)
Sources: RF Ministry of Finance, IET (2008).
19 CASE Network Reports No. 103
20. Irina Sinitsina
In spite of continued revenue growth, the proportion of GG expenditure to
GDP grew only up until 2003, with a consecutive gradual decline thereafter (by 5
p.p. of GDP). A certain reversion of this trend started in 2007, as a result of the
increased social obligations, including those associated with national priority pro-jects
(see below), new investment programs, and the presidential elections of 2008
(see Fig. 1.1).
The rapid growth in all types of GG revenues was determined, to a large extent,
by increasing export prices on oil, gas, nonferrous metals and wood after 1999.
They brought more revenue not only directly, through higher receipts from export
duties or Mineral tax, but through the growth of aggregate domestic demand and
GDP.
Since 2000, there were also serious changes in revenues distribution between
the different tiers of the budget system. The size of federal revenues consistently
exceeded the sub-federal budgets’ revenues, and the gap between them increased
from 1.4 p.p. of GDP in 2000 to 8.9 p.p. of GDP in 2007 (see Fig. 1.2).
Whereas revenues at all levels of government (as a fraction of GDP) increased
steadily throughout 2000-2007, the expenditure trends have been varied. In 2000-
2002, expenditures grew at almost the same rate as revenues. Since 2003, expendi-tures
increased at a slower rate compared to GDP. By 2007, growth in expendi-tures
outpaced growth in revenues. The fiscal balance followed changes in revenue
and expenditures, remaining consistently positive prior to 2009.
Figure 1.2. Revenues and expenditures across various tiers of RF budgetary system,
%GDP
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
% GDP
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Federal budget
revenues
Federal budget
expenditures
Consolidated budget of
the RF subjects
revenues
Consolidated budget of
the RF subjects
expenditures
Sources: RF Ministry of Finance, RF Treasury.
Despite the slower growth of GG expenditures compared to revenues, fiscal
policy was increasingly pro-cyclical in the years preceding the crisis. While the
CASE Network Reports No. 103 20
21. PUBLIC EXPENDITURES ON EDUCATION AND HEALTH IN RUSSIAN FEDERATION…
medium-term fiscal framework was based on a relatively conservative and prudent
target for the non-oil deficit (4.7% of GDP), its actual size was much higher. This
reflected growing political pressures to spend a bigger part of the oil wealth on
investments and other priority projects, as well as a failure to curb other spending
because of the lack of public sector reforms (IMF 2009a).
In these circumstances, considering the volatile nature of revenues growth, and
to ensure the country against a future deterioration of the external environment, the
government established the Stabilization Fund in 2004 (with a part of the proceeds
from oil export duties and the Mineral tax on oil, when the price on Urals grade oil
exceeds the benchmark price). The Fund was intended to balance the federal
budget if oil prices fell below the threshold, to absorb excess liquidity and to re-duce
inflationary pressure on the ruble. The favorable external conditions that
prevailed in 2004-2007 allowed substantial reserves to accumulate in the Fund. At
the same time, the government used the Fund’s resources for unplanned expendi-tures,
including the repayment of the Pension Fund deficit. The Stabilization Fund
existed in its initial form until February 2008, when it was divided into two parts:
the Reserve Fund and National Welfare Fund. The first of these funds cushioned
the negative fiscal effects of the financial crisis in 2009 (see Section 1.2).
In accordance with the Budget Code, the bulk of responsibilities to finance the
social infrastructure sectors is borne by regional and local budgets (see Box 1). For
example, in 2006, the largest share of public spending on education was provided
by local budgets (52.7% of the respective consolidated budget expenditures), re-gional
budgets accounted for 26.5%, and the federal budget accounted for 20.8%
of the total. In health care, the proportion of the federal budget spent accounted for
19.7%, while that of territorial budgets accounted for 80.3% of the total, of which
53.6% was for regional and 26.7% for local budgets. The financial situation of
these sectors largely depends on the specifics of the re-distribution of budget re-sources
between various tiers of government.
Box 1. RF Budget system: Financing education and health care
Russia’s budget system consists of the federal budget, regional budgets and over 24 thou-sand
local budgets (Fig. 1.3). As of January 1, 2011, the regional tier included 83 regions,
which are referred to as subjects of the Federation. These subjects include 21 republics
(native territories), 46 oblasts, 9 krais, 4 autonomous okrugs, 1 autonomous oblast, and the
two federal cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg. According to the Constitution, all sub-jects
of the Federation have equal rights, but the powers of autonomous okrugs are limited
by federal laws. As of 2007, the regions were subdivided into 520 larger cities (known as
gorodskoi okrugs) and 1,793 rural areas (municipal raions). The raions are further subdi-vided
into 21,651 smaller settlements (called poselenie), which include towns and smaller
rural areas that combine two or three villages. All local government units are theoretically
independent of regional governments in terms of their budgetary and administrative status.
21 CASE Network Reports No. 103
22. Irina Sinitsina
In practice, however, they depend heavily on regional transfers and regional public in-vestment
policies.
Figure 1.3. Russian Federation’s federal structure
Central government
President
President’s envoys to 8 federal
administrative okrugs
Subjects of the Federation
21 republics, 46 oblasts, 9 krais,
1 autonomous oblast, 4
autonomous okrugs
2 federal cities – Moscow and
St.Petersburg
Local self-government
520 cities 1793 raions
21,651 settlements
(19,919 rural and
1,732 urban)
City districts within
federal cities
Source: De Silva et al. 2009.
Each level of government formulates and approves its own budget without the approval of
the higher-level government, and each has its own designated revenue sources and respon-sibilities.
However, the fiscal autonomy of regions and municipalities is narrowly con-strained:
the total spending of regional and municipal governments depends on higher-level
decisions.
The system of revenue assignment is such that almost all taxing powers are concentrated at
the federal level, and federal laws determine the primary distribution of revenue sources
between regions and municipalities. Each level of government is assigned retention rates
of shared federal taxes, and tax sources are labeled as regional or local, although the tax
base and the range within which the rates of those taxes can vary are set by the federal
government.
The 1993 RF Constitution lists the exclusive responsibilities of the federal government as
well as the joint responsibilities of the federal government and the subjects of the Federa-tion.
Education and health care functions are included on the list of joint responsibilities
without a further breakdown. In practice, and in line with the legislation in force, they are
distributed between the government tiers in the following way:
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23. PUBLIC EXPENDITURES ON EDUCATION AND HEALTH IN RUSSIAN FEDERATION…
Education Health care
Federal government
Providing higher professional (tertiary) education Providing high tech specialized medical assistance in federal
medical centers
Financing federal earmarked programs and national priority
projects in the field of education
Financing federal earmarked programs and national priority
projects in the field of health care
Scientific research in the field of education Scientific research in the field of health care
Regional (subjects' of Federation) governments
Providing vocational education Providing health care in general and specialized hospitals
(for tuberculosis, cancer, psychiatric care, etc.)
Providing funds to municipalities for preschool, primary,
secondary, and after-school education Providing medical insurance for the unemployed
Local (municipal raion) governments
Providing preschool, primary, and secondary education
along with supplementary after-school programs using
regional budget subsidies
Providing health care in general hospitals, maternity care,
and ambulance services
The functions of local (poselenie-level) governments do not include any education- or
healthcare-related items. In autonomous okrugs, education, health care, and other social
functions over which regions have jurisdiction are exercised by the government of the
oblast or krai that includes the specific autonomous okrug. The Table below provides a
general idea of the current assignment of responsibilities across different levels of govern-ment.
Expenditures on Public Functions by Tier of Government as Percentage of Total
Expenditure, 2006
Government function Federal budget (%) Regional budgets (%) Local budgets (%)
Total outlays 54 29 17
Education 22 26 52
Preschool 1 16 82
Primary and secondary 1 21 78
Vocational 28 69 2
Retraining and continuous 53 44 3
Higher professional 95 5 0
Health care and sports 22 59 19
Health care 13 69 18
Sports and physical fitness 13 58 29
Source: De Silva et al. 2009.
The revenue capabilities of regional budgets were shaped in accordance with
the Tax and Budget Codes. According to IET (2008), a significant degree of
asymmetry in the fiscal capacities of individual regions requires a certain concen-tration
of tax revenues in the federal budget. Throughout the pre-crisis period, the
proportion of regional budget expenditures in the total spending of consolidated
budget remained high. Its relative reduction was observed only in 2006, being
associated with a significant increase of federal budget expenditures, including
those aimed at funding national projects (see Fig. 1.2).The structure of tax reve-nues
of the RF subjects underwent significant changes in 2000-2007: the number
of taxes was reduced while the shares of CIT, PIT and the excise taxes belonging
23 CASE Network Reports No. 103
24. Irina Sinitsina
to these budgets increased. Yet these changes were accompanied by a decline in
the relative importance of traditional regional taxes. As a result, the share of re-gional
revenues in the RF consolidated budget decreased substantially from 56.6%
in 1998 to 30.9% in 2005.
As a consequence, a mismatch between the revenue allocation and expenditure
responsibilities at the regional level increased in the period of 1999-2005. Whilst
this trend was somewhat corrected in 2006-2007 (due to a reallocation of expendi-ture
commitments in 2006, increasing financial aid to the regions in 2007, and –
most importantly – due to a rapid tax base growth from the revenue sources as-signed
to sub-federal budgets), and the financial autonomy of the regions slightly
increased, it has not changed the situation in a fundamental way. It is important to
note that this mismatch was larger in social expenditures compared to other spend-ing
items: on average, about a half of the regional budgets is spent on social pur-poses.
However, in the majority of regions, this proportion is even higher.
In practical terms, this means that regional and municipal budgets became more
dependent on inter-budget transfers. However, whereas 2000-2002 saw a tendency
towards a certain increase in financial assistance to the regions, partly due to the
compensation of revenue losses of sub-national authorities associated with tax
reforms, in 2003-2006 the amount of federal transfers to sub-national budgets even
decreased (from 3.03% to 2.17% of GDP). In 2007, this trend was reversed again,
when the amount of inter-budget transfers grew to 2.6% of GDP (Fig. 1.4).
Figure 1.4. Financial aid from the federal budget to consolidated budgets of the RF
subjects (% of GDP)
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
% GDP
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Financial aid to budgets of other tiers Compensations fund
Other inter-budgetary transfers
Sources: RF Ministry of Finance, IET (2008).
In 2005-2007, the system of inter-budget transfers in Russia became additional-ly
influenced by a dramatic reduction in the political autonomy of the regions,
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25. PUBLIC EXPENDITURES ON EDUCATION AND HEALTH IN RUSSIAN FEDERATION…
with the role of regional government mostly limited to the execution of federal
decisions. The above circumstances negatively influenced the conditions of fi-nancing
social services at the regional level. In particular, one should mention the
increased complexity and reduced transparency of inter-governmental transfers, as
well as growing fiscal centralization across all levels of the budget system (federal
government – regional governments – municipalities).
On the eve of the crisis, the number of inter-budget transfers increased signifi-cantly:
over 100 at the beginning of 2008, including 6 types of transfers in the
"Grants" subsection, 58 types in the "Subsidies" subsection, and 31 types in that of
"Subventions". For 24 items, the size of funding did not exceed RUR 1 billion.
This meant that for individual RF subjects, the effective administration of some
small transfers became virtually impossible (IET 2010)3. Accordingly, the number
of co-financing lines also increased up to 58 in 2008. This was accompanied by
the growing role of federal ministries in the distribution of federal financial assis-tance;
several inter-budgetary tools started to perform extrinsic functions.
Whereas the financial position of sub-national budgets could generally be charac-terized
as sustainable (considering rapid economic growth and federal financial as-sistance
– see IET, 2008), the funding of certain expenditure commitments, includ-ing
those in the sphere of public social services, encountered serious difficulties.
An overly centralized fiscal system was a particular problem for municipal
budgets: most of them cannot function on a sustainable basis as they have less than
20% of their expenditures financed from their own revenues. This leads, among
other things, to a rapid decline of capital costs compared to operating costs and, as
a result, to the under-financing of investments. Resolving this problem is impossi-ble
without strengthening the revenue basis of local budgets (Sumskaya 2009).
The so-called "priority national projects” were designed to improve the financ-ing
of certain socially important spheres such as health care and education at the
regional level. Already in 2006, the first year of the projects’ implementation, total
funding for these sectors from the federal budget (including the resources of the
off-budget funds) amounted to 0.7% of GDP. At the regional level, these projects
were funded through inter-budget transfers, which resulted in a drastic increase in
the number of subsidies to regions.
3 In developed countries with a federal form of government, there are ususally two chan-nels
for the provision of inter-budget transfers: leveling fiscal capacities of regions and
support of regional spending on priority areas at socially acceptable levels. Their function-ing
is ensured by one to three large transfers from the federal budget areas and by 3 to 15
smaller transfers.
25 CASE Network Reports No. 103
26. Irina Sinitsina
The implementation of national projects4, with funding priorities determined
and financed directly from the federal budget, made it difficult to identify the ac-tual
regional and local needs. For example, one region might require an increase in
the salaries of general practitioners, while another may need more medical special-ists
or the construction of a specialized health care center. In addition, as funding
the areas selected for national projects was primarily a responsibility of regional
governments, the implementation of these projects meant not only an increased
number of intergovernmental transfers. but also additional expenditure mandates.
For example, in many cases the acquisition of costly high-tech medical equipment
was not accompanied by follow-up funding for skilled personnel who could oper-ate
or maintain this equipment, for the acquisition of consumables and spare parts,
etc. Similarly, transfers for the acquisition of computers for local schools often did
not provide for a continuous internet connection or for computer maintenance.
These and similar problems resulted in extra expenditures for the regional budgets
(IET 2008).
Major developments in public finance were related to the implementation of tax
reform, which was aimed at lowering the tax burden on enterprises, strengthening
the importance of the resource sector as the primary source of tax revenues, as
well as the simplification of small business taxation. In 2002, the CIT tax rate was
reduced from 35% to 24%. The unified social tax (UST)5 replaced insurance con-tributions
to extra-budgetary funds, and although its rate was set a rather high level
(26%), it encouraged entrepreneurs to reduce out-of-pocket payments. The Miner-al
tax was made dependent on the world market prices, which contributed substan-tially
to the growth in budget revenues. The tax rates in the simplified taxation
system were also significantly reduced.
Starting in 2001, a flat PIT rate was introduced and set at 13%, leading to more
budget revenues from the hitherto shadow incomes. In addition, in 2001, a tax on
housing stock and social and cultural institutions was abolished.
At the same time, the introduction of a transport tax instead of taxes on the use
of highways and on vehicle owners, and the elimination of a tax on foreign curren-cy
purchases contributed to a considerable reduction of regional budget revenues.
On the other hand, the modification of revenue sharing schemes between the fed-eral
and regional budgets with regard to excise tax on alcohol and oil products has
4 The four Priority National Projects (PNP) included: PNP “Education” (achieving a high
quality of education and skilled personnel training); PNP “Health” (improvement of the
quality of medical services); PNP “Accessible and comfortable housing for Russian citi-zens”,
and PNP “Development of agro-industrial complex”(reduction of dependency on
food imports by raising the efficiency of domestic agriculture).
5 Canceled from January 1st, 2011.
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27. PUBLIC EXPENDITURES ON EDUCATION AND HEALTH IN RUSSIAN FEDERATION…
somewhat stabilized the situation. In 2004, the sales tax was abolished, but region-al
budgets were compensated by an increase in the regional share in CIT.
In parallel with changes in tax legislation, certain measures to improve tax ad-ministration
were also initiated. For example, in 2003 a one-stop principle was
introduced for registering a new business in the tax office. Yet fiscal performance
remained severely hindered by widespread corruption practices, by over-complicated
reporting requirements which created considerable obstacles for small
business development, etc. Overall, despite the contradictory results of the tax
reform, it resulted in a functional (albeit imperfect) tax system.
The importance of measures aimed at improving the efficiency of public ex-penditures,
primarily an introduction of a performance-oriented budgeting system,
has been articulated at all administrative levels starting from 2004, as well as in
regular national socio-economic development programs. Still, up to the present
time, its implementation is limited to the analytical and monitoring stages of plan-ning
and assessment of efficiency of budget expenditures. This work has been
going on at the levels of the federal budget and several RF subjects, but it has not
yet become a constituent part of the budgetary process.
The 2007 changes introduced to the RF Budget Code envisaged moving to a
three-year program-oriented budget planning. Besides, they attempted to increase
the autonomy of sub-federal budgets, and provide a more clear delimitation of
responsibility between different tiers of the budgetary system. Regional and local
budgets were given the right to choose among the instruments of budgetary plan-ning,
to shape budgetary classification, etc.
However, the reform of local self-government that was developed in the begin-ning
of the 2000’s and was planned to be implemented step-by-step starting in
2006, was not completed during the pre-crisis period as a result of numerous colli-sions
and mismatches with the actual model of federalism currently functioning in
Russia.
To enhance public investment growth, new organizational structures named
“development institutions” have been established since 2005. These entities were
meant to create conditions for generating high technology and to support initia-tives
within the entrepreneurial sector. By their organizational form, they are either
state corporations (Vnesheconombank, Rosnano Corporation, etc.) or open joint
stock companies (Rosselhozbank, JSC “Russian venture company”, etc.), or the
RF investment funds; each of them received considerable support from the federal
budget, primarily in the form of shares in their capital stock.
27 CASE Network Reports No. 103
28. Irina Sinitsina
1.2. Fiscal performance during the crisis
1.2.1. Macroeconomic developments during the crisis
The development of the Russian economy in 2009-2010 and its medium-term
macroeconomic perspective were determined by the following processes:
reaction of the economy to changes in external conditions, including
the drop in world commodity prices at the end of 2008 and in the be-ginning
of 2009, followed by their partial recovery by mid-2009 (av-erage
annual world prices for crude oil declined from $96 per barrel in
2008 to $56-58 per barrel in 2009; in 2010, prices further recovered to
$70-80 per barrel);
correction of the overheated labor, loan and real estate markets;
overcoming the consequences of the temporary balance of payments
crisis at the end of 2008 and in early 2009 (Abramova et al. 2009).
The GDP decrease started at the end of 2008 (- 0.4% negative growth in m/m
terms was registered in October 2008), and the overall Q4 results saw almost a 6%
GDP decrease. In 2009, after a deep output decline in the first half of the year, the
economy demonstrated signs of stabilization and recovery by the end of the year.
Overall Russia recorded a considerable deterioration of its main socio-economic
indicators, including a GDP decrease by 7.9 %. According to 2010 projections, the
recovery was to be moderate.
Since November 2008, the government introduced a broad set of anti-crisis
measures, which increased the government’s control over the economy. In the
autumn of 2008, the anti-crisis measures were more of a “pin-point response”
character and required largely the use of “manual control” mechanisms. The com-prehensive
government anti-crisis program was developed only by March 2009
(RF Government 2009).
The total amount of financial resources involved in the anti-crisis measures in
2008-2009 (as of the beginning of 2010) reached RUR 3528.4 bn (8.5% GDP
2008): 61.2% of this amount was financed from the federal budget, and 38.8%
came from extra-budgetary (quasi-budgetary) sources. The main bulk of resources
(59.5% of the total) was directed to financing “Measures on securing the finan-cial
stability of the economy”. In particular, they involved subsidies, subventions
and budget loans aimed at balancing regional budgets (10.3% of the total anti-crisis
resources). 59% of their financing came from extra-budgetary (quasi-budgetary)
sources. 49.2% of total anti-crisis resources was channeled to combat-ing
liquidity shortages, recapitalizing the largest banks, assisting banks and corpo-
CASE Network Reports No. 103 28
29. PUBLIC EXPENDITURES ON EDUCATION AND HEALTH IN RUSSIAN FEDERATION…
rations in repayment of their external corporate debts, as well as to regions to get
their budgets balanced. The government support to the banking system was exer-cised
by means of boosting the largest banks’ capital and providing liquidity in the
form of subordinated loans.
The second most important area of anti-crisis measures (21.3% of the total
amount of anti-crisis resources) was aimed at the support of the industrial and
technological sectors. These measures were financed from the federal budget by
80% and focused on protecting corporations from bankruptcy with the help of
direct budget aid, government guarantees and the provision of tax benefits. Addi-tional
financing from the federal budget was exercised by means of granting sub-sidies
and subventions to support individual industries – primarily the military-industrial
complex, the aircraft industry, motor vehicles manufacturing, shipbuild-ing,
as well as selected agricultural producers. In addition, the government em-ployed
a public procurement mechanism that was used e.g. for the procurement of
motor vehicles for the federal and territorial government agencies (IET 2010).
Measures related to the support of social protection, state social guaranties
and employment accounted for 19,2% of the total amount of additional financial
resources and were entirely financed from the federal budget. These measures
included: support to the labor market and assistance to employment measures, an
increase of unemployment benefits, permission to use the “maternity allowance”
to improve housing conditions, procurement of housing for veterans, and co-financing
of special programs in the housing and utilities sector, namely the re-structuring
of private individuals’ mortgage arrears. 65% of anti-crisis resources
envisaged for social-related measures were used for transfers to extra-budgetary
funds and the anti-crisis fund. This funding was used for the reinforcement of re-gional
and local budgets to support their social anti-crisis functions and for the
support of the labor market. Besides, additional financial support was provided to
the CMI system through increasing transfers to those CMI territorial funds that
experienced a significant reduction in revenues.
The unprecedented scale of public expenditures on anti-crisis programs result-ed
in a major increase of the GG expenditures (by some 6.9 p.p. GDP as compared
to 2008), primarily due to the growth of federal budget expenditures (by 6.5 p.p.
GDP). The gap between revenues and expenditures widened, and 2009 became the
first year in the past decade when the GG deficit was reported to account for 6.3%
of GDP. On the other hand, part of the anti-crisis measures made it possible to
keep households real disposal incomes intact through an increase in public pen-sions
and other social guaranties which softened the negative effects of the de-crease
in real wages.
29 CASE Network Reports No. 103
30. Irina Sinitsina
The resources of the Reserve Fund made financing the GG deficit possible in
2009. As a result, the accumulated stock of the Fund decreased from 9.8% GDP at
the end of 2008 to 4.7% GDP at the end of 2009. The recession at the end 2008 and
in early 2009 resulted in a sharp decrease in GG revenues. In 2009, GG revenues fell
by 4.2 p.p. of GDP, primarily due to a considerable reduction in federal budget rev-enues
(by 3.6 p.p. of GDP) (see Figs. 2.1 and 2.2). The revenues decline at the re-gional
level was more moderate. Still, the crisis caused a considerable increase in the
number of deficit-ridden regional budgets: from 44 in 2008 to 62 in 2009.
1.2.2. Budget revenue performance
The crisis radically changed the structure of GG revenues. Not surprisingly, it
was the revenues from taxes and levies that directly depend on the prices of energy
resources and demand for Russian exports (namely, the revenues from Mineral
Tax) and revenues from foreign economic activity that plunged most drastically –
by 1.3 and 1.7 p.p. of GDP respectively. At the same time, PIT, VAT, excise tax
and UST shares in GDP increased.
The overall GG tax revenues decreased by 3.4 p.p. of GDP. Declining reve-nues,
primarily in the oil and gas sector, and the general slump of business activity
in other industries have resulted in a plunge of CIT revenues. In 2009, the GG
revenues from this tax accounted for 3.2% of GDP, compared to 6% of GDP in
2008. As of early 2010, most enterprises found themselves in dire financial straits,
while the government stimulus package was delivered only to a limited number of
the most critical, backbone corporations and fell short of securing a mass positive
effect. The reduction of CIT revenues in 2009 can also be attributed to a decrease
in the CIT tax rate from 24% to 20% since January 1, 2009. Besides, 2009 saw
several amendments to Art. 25 of the Tax Code (related to CIT administering)
which also reduced the tax base.
The principal causes behind the absolute and relative contraction of federal
budget revenues in 2009 as compared to 2008, were: 1) a fall in the contribution of
oil and gas related revenues (by 3% of GDP), and 2) a reduction in non-oil and
non-gas revenues, resulting from the recession (see Fig. 1.5).
The financial and economic crisis brought considerable changes into the struc-ture
of revenues at all levels of the RF budgetary system. All levels experienced a
considerable decrease of the CIT share in total revenues, and it was especially
tangible at the regional level (a 9.3 p.p. decrease from 28.3% to 18% in 2009); at
the same time, the relative share of PIT within regional budgets tended to expand –
from 26.9% to 28.1%. The share of VAT in the federal budget obtained from sales
of goods and services within the country also increased. The roles of social taxes
CASE Network Reports No. 103 30
31. PUBLIC EXPENDITURES ON EDUCATION AND HEALTH IN RUSSIAN FEDERATION…
and contributions went up as well – by 2.8 p.p. in the consolidated budget and by
1.4 p.p. in the federal budget.
Figure 1.5. Major parameters of the RF Federal Budget for 2008–2010 and for the
2011-2013 planning period
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
% GDP
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Oil-and-gas revenues Non oil-and-gas revenues
Total expenditures Deficit/surplus, total
Non-oil-and-gas deficit
Sources: RF Ministry of Finance, RF Government (2010b), IET calculations.
The relative decline in CIT significance was replaced at the regional level by
an increase in excise taxes on goods and services produced within the country, real
estate taxes, and revenues from paid services. The role of federal transfers in-creased
from 19.4% to 27.3% of the total revenues of regional budgets. The grants
to the regional and municipal budgets recorded growth as they went from 6.3% of
total regional budget revenues in 2008 to 9.85% in 2009; grants for leveling budg-et
capacity went from from 5.3% to 6.3% and inter-budgetary subsidies went from
7.0% to 9.0% of GDP.
The revenue structure of the state extra-budgetary funds (SEBF) and territorial
extra-budgetary funds (TEBF) also experienced considerable changes. The share
of inter-budgetary transfers in the overall revenues of SEBF increased substantial-ly
(from 49.1% in 2008 to 56.1% in 2009), while the total amount of these trans-fers
increased by 33%. The proportion of insurance contributions shrank from
40.2% to 34.9%, while the total amount of these contributions increased by 1.3%.
Thus the relative role of UST contributions in the overall amount of SEBF reve-nues
declined, although in nominal terms the amounts collected did not decrease.
Thus transfers from the federal budget formed a cushion thanks to which re-gions
were able to survive the peak of the economic crisis. At the same time, the
regions became even more dependent on federal decisions (as the trend for central-ization
described in section 1.1 strengthened).
31 CASE Network Reports No. 103
32. Irina Sinitsina
The situation at the regional level appeared to be diversified. Compared to
2008, almost one fourth of the regions experienced a decrease in their budget rev-enues.
These were primarily highly developed regions – federal cities and regions
producing oil, natural gas and metallurgical products highly dependent on CIT
revenues. Almost 50 regional budgets recorded a surplus, mostly thanks to federal
transfers. Moreover, in some of the less developed and remote regions, budget
revenues increased dramatically: 1.6-1.7 times in the Chechen Republic and in
Chukotka, 1.4 times in Kamchatka, and 1.3 times in Adygeya (Zubarevich 2010).
As a result, according to the Ministry of Finance, the percentage of non-repayable
federal transfers in the budgets of 32 regions exceeded 40%, including 70% in the
Chechen Republic, Ingushetia, Dagestan, Tyva, and the Altai Republic (RF Minis-try
of Finance 2010)
With a dramatic decline in tax and non-tax revenues in 2009, several regions
have renewed active borrowing. Given the deterioration of financial market condi-tions
and high interest rates on commercial credits, budgetary loans became one of
the key sources of borrowing for the regional budgets. Since 2009, budgetary
loans have become available with a maturity of up to three years. In 2009, the
federal government provided such loans for the total sum of RUR 170 bn (com-pared
to RUR 20 bn in 2008). Budgetary loans were disbursed to 80 RF subjects.
As a result, they accounted for almost 8% of the federal aid to the regions. Togeth-er
with grants to balance the budget, they constituted about 20% of the overall
resources transferred to the regional budgets (compared to 5.2% in 2008) (IET
2010). Besides, the growing difficulties in financing recurrent budgetary expenses
forced the regional authorities to borrow on the credit market. As of January 1st,
2010, the total amount in loans obtained by regions from financial institutions was
RUR 304.6 bn (RF Ministry of Finance 2010).
The crisis period changed the relative importance of individual financial in-struments
used to support the regions (see Fig. 1.4). The total volume of financial
resources the federal budget transferred to RF subjects increased by 34% in 2009
and reached 4.06% GDP. The most rapid growth was demonstrated in the case of
subventions (up 71%) and budget loans that increased more than tenfold compared
to 2008. Transfers grew by 36% and subsidies increased by 12%. In contrast, the
volume of other extra-budgetary transfers shrank by 30%. The share of subven-tions
in the total amount of federal transfers grew from 14% in 2008 to 19.2% in
2009. The proportion of grants was on the rise, too, – from 36% to 39%. In con-trast,
the proportion of subsidies decreased from 40 to 36%, while the share of
other interbudgetary transfers plunged by 4.6 p.p., to 5.9% of the total amount of
transfers (IET 2010).
The growth of regional budget dependence on federal transfers was justified in
the crisis period, but it resulted in an even greater sophistication of the transfers’
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33. PUBLIC EXPENDITURES ON EDUCATION AND HEALTH IN RUSSIAN FEDERATION…
structure. The current budget for 2010-2012 includes 87 different kinds of trans-fers,
including four types of grants, 43 types of subsidies (including federal target
programs and subprograms), 21 types of subventions and 19 listed as other inter-budgetary
transfers (IET 2010). Clearly, these numbers are excessive from the
viewpoint of effective and transparent administration.
Table 1.1. Priorities of federal financing of anti-crisis measures at the regional level1
Proportion in the
overall amount of
federal assistance to
the regions, %
Share of individual
anti-crisis
measures in overall
anti-crisis trans-fers,
% (2009)
Nominal in-crease
in 2009,
2008=100
2008 2009
1. Anti-crisis priorities, total 25.3 46.8 100.0 356.9
1.1. On regional budgets’
balancing 4.9 19.3 41.3 546.0
1.1.1. Grants (transfers) for
budget balancing 3.4 10.2 21.9 416.8
1.1.2. Budgetary loans 1.5 9.1 19.4 839.0
1.2. Labor market support 3.0 7.0 15.0 321.1
1.2.1. Subsidies for addition-al
measures to soften tension
0.0 1.9 4.1 -
on the labor market
1.2.2. Subsidies for support
of SMEs, including agricul-tural
(farmer) enterprises
0.3 1.0 2.1 524.8
1.2.3. Subventions for sup-porting
employment, includ-ing
administration expenses
2.8 4.1 8.8 206.8
1.3. Support for the housing
market* 6.6 10.1 21.5 211.0
1.4. Support of the national
machine building industry** 0.0 1.1 2.2 -
1.5. Support of agricultural
production 5.4 4.8 10.3 123.2
1.6. Support to CMI regional
program insofar as it con-cerns
the basic CMI pro-gram***
5.27 5.54 11.9 145.9
1 Based on the results of survey of behavior of 6 regions during the crisis.
* Subventions on provision of housing to specific categories of the population envisaged
by Federal Law № 5-FZ of September 12, 1995, Federal Law № FZ-181 of November 24,
1995, and by other legislative acts
33 CASE Network Reports No. 103
34. Irina Sinitsina
** Subsidies to the regional budgets for the purchase of motor vehicles and municipal
equipment.
*** In 2008 - grants (transfers) to the territorial CMI funds for territorial CMI programs
implemented within the framework of basic CMI programs; in 2009 - the sum of the above
grants (transfers) and resources from the CMI Federal fund transferred to the territorial
CMI budgets for the implementation of the territorial programs for the provision of State
guarantees of free medical services to RF citizens.
Source: IET & IISP (2010).
Despite a very diversified structure of transfers, they turned out to be ill-suited
for facing the challenges posed by the financial crisis (see Table 1.1). The inter-regional
distribution of transfers was administered in a discretionary manner de-pending
on the strength of lobbying pressures or taking into consideration political
factors. For example, in 2009, budget balancing grants (the most rapidly growing
transfer category which experienced a fourfold increase in 2009 and played a visi-ble
role in the regional budgets – 3% of the overall revenues) were rather chan-neled
to those regions that were not seriously affected by the crisis and did not
experience a significant reduction of industrial production and tax revenues. This
extra financing was rather intended to meet other goals, e.g. organization of a spe-cial
economic zone in Kaliningrad, or the construction of infrastructural objects
for the 2014 APEC summit in Vladivostok, etc. Subsidies to federal targeted pro-grams
did not perform anti-crisis functions either, and the shares of these subsidies
in respective regional budgets were the highest in the regions otherwise enjoying
high federal support – Chechnya (26%), the Primorie Territory (21%), and Kali-ningrad
oblast (14%). Several other regions obtained large transfers as compensa-tion
payments for mergers with autonomous regions (Krasnoyarsk and Kamchatka
Territories), or compensations for a dramatic reduction in tax revenues after the
withdrawal of large corporations (Chukotka) (Zubarevich 2010).
Transfers designed to explicitly address crisis-related challenges, e.g. support
to SMEs, did not really meet their stated goal due to their small amounts (on aver-age
0.3% of regional budget revenues). Among various types of federal transfers,
the real anti-crisis functions were performed only by transfers directly aimed at
employment protection and other support measures for the regional labor markets,
as well as by transfers related to various kinds of social benefits (Zubarevich
2010). Thus, as can be seen from Table 1.1, at most 7% to 15% of total federal
assistance to the regions performed some anti-crisis functions.
On the whole, the inter-budgetary regulative system failed to address the crisis-related
challenges at the regional level and effectively supplement resource short-ages
in specific spheres of financing in view of declining regional revenues. An
important lesson from the 2009 experience is that the inter-budgetary regulations
continued their pro-cyclic features of the period of economic growth and thus
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35. PUBLIC EXPENDITURES ON EDUCATION AND HEALTH IN RUSSIAN FEDERATION…
failed to provide guarantees of equal rights of citizens for access to services of a
standard quality (Kurlyandskaya 2009).
1.2.3. Major changes in the expenditure structure
Despite a significant fall in budget revenues in 2009, the RF Government im-plemented
a “counter-cyclical” fiscal policy, ensuring virtually no expenditure
cutbacks and initiating additional expenditures to execute anti-crisis measures (see
Section 1.2.1). The major reason for a substantial increase in federal budget ex-penditures,
аs well as in the budgets of government extra-budgetary funds, was the
need to mitigate the adverse effects of the global financial crisis. As a result, ex-penditures
at all levels of the budgetary system expanded relative to GDP. Given
the dramatic decline of GDP, total consolidated budget expenditures increased
from 34.2% of GDP in 2008 to 41.1% in 2009, federal budget expenditures grew
by 6.6 p.p. of GDP – from 18.3% to 24.7%, and consolidated regional budgets
gained an additional 1 p.p. of GDP (see Figs. 2.1 and 2.2). The expenditures of the
State EBFs also grew considerably – by 2.2 p.p. of GDP, from 6.99% of GDP in
2008 to 9.18% of GDP in 2009.
Federal budget expenditures demonstrated the most rapid growth both in nomi-nal
and real terms (24.5%), with intra-budget transfers being the most rapidly
growing item (31% in real terms). As a result, the proportion of intra-budget trans-fers
in the overall federal budget expenditures reached 37.2% in 2009. The nomi-nal
growth of the consolidated regional expenditures was rather moderate; in real
terms, the expenditures contracted by 2.4%. State EBF expenditures increased in
real terms by 20.8%, while the real expenditures of the territorial EBFs grew by
only 1.2%.
As a result, the functional structure of expenditures also displayed notable
modifications, with investment expenditures being cut vs. increased financial sup-port
for households and domestic business. The structure of expenditures by func-tion
relative to GDP underwent considerable changes (see Fig. 1.6). Within the
consolidated budget (GG), the “Social policy” item accounted for 12.1% of GDP
vs. 9.1% of GDP in 2008, with a considerable shift towards State EBFs (from
6.54% GDP to 8.80% GDP) and consolidated regional budgets (from 1.8% GDP
to 2.5% GDP). A considerable increase was registered for the item “National
economy” – up to 7.1% of GDP in 2009 vs. 5.4% of GDP in 2008. Expenditures
on education and health care also went up – by 0.6 p.p. and 0.5 p.p. respectively;
this was primarily a result of GDP decline since the increase in these expenditures
in real terms (using GDP deflator) was moderate – 4.6% for education and 4.3%
for health and sports. In the case of health care expenditures, the growing role of
35 CASE Network Reports No. 103
36. Irina Sinitsina
the federal budget was supplemented by increased funding from territorial EBFs
(from 1.19% of GDP in 2008 to1.39% of GDP in 2009).
Figure 1.6. Structure of expenditures in RF budgetary system by tier in 2008-2009, %
of GDP
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
0 5
% of GDP
2008 2009 2008 2009
RF consolidated budget
and budgets of extra-budgetary
funds
Consolidated budgets
of RF subjects
Inter-budgetary transfers
Social policy
Health care and sports
Culture & mass media
Education
Environmental protection
Housing and utilities
National economy
National security
National defense
General public administration
Sources: RF Treasury, authors’ calculations.
Different trends of expenditure growth among the various tiers of the budgetary
system in 2009 resulted in changes in the GG expenditure structure. The share of
regional budget expenditures declined from 42.6% in 2008 to 37.2% in 2009. The
growing centralization of resources resulted in increasing shares of the federal
budget (from 34.6% to 37.8%) and the budgets of the government EBFs (from
19.3% to 21.5%) in GG. The crisis-induced centralization also increased the role
of the federal budget in education (from 21.3 to 23.4%) and health (from 18 to
21.3%) funding, with a corresponding dramatic decline of the role of regional
budgets that bear the major burden of responsibility for financing the constitution-al
guarantees – by 2.1 p.p. for education and by 4.8 p.p. for health care and sports.
The proportion of the territorial government EBFs in the funding of health care
and sports has also increased (from 31.8% in 2008 to 32.8% in 2009); this was a
result of the greater involvement of these funds in implementing the state program
for free guaranteed medical services.
The structure of expenditures of the regional consolidated budgets also under-went
substantial changes in 2009. Although the total size of regional expenditures
remained practically unchanged, the relative importance of several items increased
substantially. The latter included: 1) “Social policy” (e.g., increase in expenditures
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37. PUBLIC EXPENDITURES ON EDUCATION AND HEALTH IN RUSSIAN FEDERATION…
on implementation of the government employment policy funded with federal
subventions); 2) “Inter-budgetary transfers” (mostly transfers to the CMI Territori-al
Funds); 3) “General public administration matters” (servicing public and munic-ipal
debts fueled by intense subnational borrowings); and 4) “Education”.
The greatest relative decrease occurred in the “Housing and utilities sector” and
“National economy”, with expenditures on the former cut in nominal terms by
16.2%, and with those on national economy by 8% (comparing to 2008). The cuts
in the housing and utilities sector occurred largely due a 23% fall in capital in-vestment.
In general, it was capital expenditures that were trimmed most exten-sively,
while expenditures on servicing public and municipal debts, as well as
expenditures on items that were (co-) financed from the federal budget demon-strated
a substantial increase.
The situation of regional budgets was very differentiated. In late 2008 and in
2009 some regions intentionally refused to cut down budget expenditures and
failed to form the necessary financial reserves. In some regions this was caused by
suspicions that the federal government would provide financial assistance only to
those regions that had a cash gap (i.e., no financial reserves). Another obstacle to
expenditure adjustment was related to the dominance of “hard items”, mainly of a
social character, in the regional expenditures.
According to the Ministry of Finance data, a growth in budget expenditures
was registered in 65 regions. Expenditures grew most rapidly in Ingushetia (by
70.6%), Dagestan (by 36.2%), Adygeia (by 33.4%), the Primorie Territory (by
33.0%), the Altai Republic (by 25.4%), and Tver oblast (by 24.8%). In many cas-es,
expenditure growth was a direct result of spending resources received via the
inter-budgetary transfer channels. Оn the other hand, 18 regions registered an ex-penditure
reduction which was was primarily related to the reduction of business
and financial activities. The most dramatic reduction was recorded in the Khanty-
Mansi Autonomous Okrug (by 19.0%), Tyumen oblast, (by 17.2%), Chelyabinsk
oblast (by 16.4%), Moscow (by 12.2%), St. Petersburg (by 9.3%), and Sverdlovsk
oblast (by 8.5%).
In 2009, expenditures on wages grew faster (10%) than the aggregate expendi-tures
of consolidated regional budgets. The most rapid growth of wage expendi-tures
(including tax charges) as compared to 2008 was recorded in Ingushetia
(35.0%), Moscow (29.0%), Rostov oblast (26.8%), Stavropol Territory (25.4%),
Saratov oblast (22.3%) and Astrakhan oblast (21.8%). There were only a few re-gions
where these expenditures declined: in Kaliningrad oblast (by 8.2%), Irkutsk
oblast (by 7.3%), Tatarstan (5.7%), Tyumen oblast (4.7%), the Khanty-Mansi
Autonomous Okrug (3.9%), and Vologda oblast (by 3.6%) (Ministry of Finance
2010).
37 CASE Network Reports No. 103
38. Irina Sinitsina
Expenditures on wages constituted about 30% of the overall regional budget
expenditures. Contrary to expectations, in 2009 there were no signs of wage ar-rears
growth, either at the nationwide or the regional levels. Moreover, the arrears
in 2009 decreased and constituted 76.3% (RUR 3.6 bn as of 1.01.2010) of the
2008 stock. The bulk of wage arrears were concentrated in manufacturing, while
the arrears in the “education” and “healthcare and social services” sectors were
negligible – RUR 8.5 and 8.3 mln accordingly. The total number of employed
persons affected by wage arrears in the whole country amounted to about 164.5
thousand (as of 1.01.2010), while in the education sector the respective figure was
about 1.8 thousand and in healthcare and social services – just about 1 thousand.
The average sum of arrears per person affected in education was RUR 4.8 thou-sand
(36% of an average wage in education), and in healthcare and social services
it amounted to RUR 9.2 thousand (62% of an average wage in the sector). For
comparison, the respective average at the country level was RUR 21 thousand
(113% of an average wage). 55% of wage arrears in education were caused by
delays of transfers from the upper-level budgets. The respective indicator for the
health and social services sphere was 24.9%. The rest of the arrears resulted from
a shortage of resources in mother organizations.
On the whole, the crisis brought about a considerable increase in the number of
deficit-ridden regional budgets: from 44 in 2008 to 62 in 2009. As of January 1st,
2010, the overall deficit of regional budgets reached RUR 329.3 bn (0.84% GDP).
84% of the overall deficit was the responsibility of the regional budgets them-selves
and the rest – of the local budget entities. A major part of the deficit (44%,
or RUR 145.7 bn) was concentrated in the city of Moscow. Another 20% of the
deficit was distributed between five highly developed regions (the Krasnoyarsk
Territory, the Nizhni Novgorod oblast, the Moscow oblast, the Samara oblast and
Tatarstan), and a further 15% – between seven regions (the Chechen Republic, the
Tyumen oblast, the Saratov oblast, the Stavropol Territory, the Vologda oblast, the
Arkhangelsk oblast and St. Petersburg) (Ministry of Finance 2010).
Regional and local budget deficits resulted in an increase of indebtedness that,
given the limited amount of their own budget resources, threatened the sustainabil-ity
of regional budgets. In the course of 2009, the volume of the debt of the RF
subjects increased by 48% and reached (as of January 1st, 2010) RUR 890.5 bn
(2.3% GDP). The size of the local budgets’ debt increased during the same time
period by 27% and amounted to RUR 134.9 bn (0.35% GDP). (Ministry of Fi-nance
2010). Thus, indebtedness can become a serious problem in the near future,
since in 2009 in about one third of RF regions, expenditures exceeded budget rev-enues
by 30%. To avoid a default on the debt obligations of the Moscow oblast in
2009, the federal budget was compelled to perform a chain of balancing transfers.
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39. PUBLIC EXPENDITURES ON EDUCATION AND HEALTH IN RUSSIAN FEDERATION…
Yet, arbitrary ad hoc decisions cannot be regarded as an appropriate solution for
this problem in many other regions (Zubarevich 2010).
The assessment performed by the RF Ministry of Regional Development in
2010 demonstrated that inefficient spending persists across virtually all budget
items and levels of government due to the slow pace of institutional and structural
reforms. In 2009, inefficient expenditures in public administration, health care,
education and utilities and housing totaled RUR 415 bn, 3% more than in 2008.
The highest level of inefficient spending was reported in education (RUR 142 bn,
or 34% of the total); in health care, public administration and housing it was close
to 20%. This assessment is corroborated by the results of public opinion polls that
demonstrated a declining public satisfaction with regional authorities’ activities in
education and public administration, and a low (albeit slightly growing) satisfac-tion
with health care and housing and utilities (RF Ministry of Regional Develop-ment
2010).
1.2.4. Major changes in public finance management
In late 2008 and 2009, а series of measures aimed at mitigating the impact of
the crisis on sub-national budgets was initiated by the Ministry of Finance. These
measures focused primarily on: (1) containing the size оf regional budget expendi-tures;
(2) stimulating the growth of sub-national budget revenues; (3) loosening
the restrictions for borrowing and deficit growth; (4) providing new focally di-rected
lines of anti-crisis financing.
At the end of 2008, the RF Ministry of Finance (2008) recommended that re-gions
plan 2009 budget expenditures based on the forecast of smaller tax revenues
(from CIT and payroll taxes). It was also recommended that surplus revenues re-ceived
in 2008 be kept as a reserve for 2009, instead of financing current expendi-tures,
to avoid raising salaries, etc.
Also, at the end of 2008, amendments were made to a number of articles in the
Tax and Budget Codes. First, the CIT rate was reduced from 24% to 20% since
January 1, 2009, but this reduction was carried out exclusively at the expense of
the federal budget component. Moreover, an additional 0.5% of the CIT rate was
transferred to the regional budgets. As a result, only the equivalent of 2% of the
CIT rate is now transferred to the federal budget (previously 6.5%), while 18% is
transferred to regional budgets (previously 17.5%). Meanwhile, the bottom thresh-old
for the regional CIT rate has remained unchanged (13.5%), which effectively
increased the maximum level of the CIT regional benefit from 4% to 4.5% (Feder-al
law № 305-FZ, 2008).
39 CASE Network Reports No. 103
40. Irina Sinitsina
Amendments were also introduced to Art. 56 of the Budget Code that defined
the tax revenues of regional budgets (Federal law № 310-FZ, 2008). As of January
1, 2009, revenues from excise taxes on motor gasoline, straight gasoline, diesel
fuel and motor oil have been transferred to the regional budgets at the rate of
100% (60% previously).
A few changes were introduced into Budget Code regulations related to budget
loans: first, the loan terms were extended from one to three years. Second, the
regions of the Far North and equated territories were granted the right to provide
budget loans (at the expense of regional budgets) to legal entities for the purchase
and delivery of fuel to those subjects. Previously, the right to provide budget loans
to legal entities (including foreign legal entities) was the exclusive authority of the
Russian Federation, and even then only at the expense of targeted foreign credits
(borrowings).
To compensate for a significant reduction in the capacity of regions to attract
credit resources, the Law «On the Federal Budget for 2009 and planning period of
2010-2011» increased the total amount of budget loans to regions from the federal
budget up to RUR 20 billion in 2009.
In 2009, several amendments were introduced to the Budget Code with the aim
of softening the limitations in respect to the size of regional deficits and the total
size of regional and municipal public debts (Federal Law№ 58-FZ, 2008). Prior to
2008, the size of the budget deficit of any RF subject was limited to 15% of the
approved total regional revenues (less subventions). Indeed, this provision was
already corrected in 2008 when the RF subjects were granted the right to exceed
this limit by the amount of revenues from sales of stock or other forms of partici-pation
in capital, as well as by diminishing cash balances of the regional budget.
The new amendment allowed RF subjects to exceed this limit by the amount equal
to the balance of federal budget loans. In contrast to the previous amendments, the
effect of this provision is limited in time, with January 1st, 2013 as the deadline.
Similarly, local self-governance bodies were allowed to exceed the ceiling of the
municipal budget deficit (10%) by the balance of budget loans from the regional
budget. In addition, the debt limit of the RF subjects (or municipal entities) was
also alleviated: currently; it can exceed the ceiling set by the Budget Code by the
size of budget loans attracted from other tiers of the budget system.
Limits on the size of other transfers provided from RF subjects’ budgets to lo-cal
budgets were modified as well. The volume of such transfers may exceed 10%
of the aggregate volume of transfers (less subventions) by the amount of subsidies
aimed at balancing the local budgets.
In the first half of 2009, in view of tightening budgetary constraints, the Minis-try
of Finance and the Federal Treasury issued a joint clarification of procedures
CASE Network Reports No. 103 40