CASE Network Studies and Analyses 397 - Restructuring and Social Safety Nets in Russia and Ukraine - Social Security Influence on Labor Mobility: Possible Opportunities and Challenges
This document summarizes research on the effects of social safety nets on labor mobility in Russia and Ukraine. It finds that stronger social safety nets can reduce different types of labor mobility, including sectoral mobility between industries, mobility between employment and unemployment, and geographical mobility. Theoretical models and statistical analysis of data from Russia and Ukraine provide evidence that larger social safety nets are associated with less mobility in these dimensions. The conclusions have implications for policymakers seeking to balance social protections with efficient labor market functioning during economic transitions.
The paper discusses possible directions and magnitudes of the relationship between the social security driven tax wedge, employment and shadow employment in Russia and Ukraine. The first section presents a summary of the economic and institutional background for development of the current size and structure of the socially driven tax wedge in both countries. The second section presents some theoretical considerations on the relationship between the social protection system, tax wedge, non-employment and finally, shadow employment. The third section contains an attempt to econometrically estimate the magnitude of the possible relationship between the tax wedge and total employment rates in both countries. In the fourth section, the authors try to discover the mechanism of influence of the last reform of the Ukrainian payroll tax system on the structure and size of shadow employment in the country. The last analytical section closes the circle leading the reader back from shadow employment to wages and finally to the issue of access to social security institutions. The last section concludes.
Authored by: Marek Gora, Oleksandr Rohozynsky, Irina Sinitsina, Mateusz Walewski
Published in 2009
The paper focuses on the social safety nets in Russian Federation and Ukraine in the view of changes on the labour market since the beginning of economic transition. The authors showed that many past phenomena (e.g. restructuring of the economy, wage and pension arrears, new groups at-risk-of-poverty, demographic transition) caused a need to change an old type social safety net (SSN) into the new one, better adapted to emerging more liberal economy problems.
Additionally, the authors analysed some gender specific issues related to social security that are caused mainly by inequalities in the labour market. Differences of earnings between men and women in Russia caused by sector segregation account for seem to be more important than the gap between gender earnings attributed to the position. In Ukraine the main contributors to gross gender differential of log earnings (that equals to 32%) explained by our model are sector segregation and occupation.
The authors also pointed out to future policy challenges in the area of social security systems in both countries. The retirement reforms introduced recently are a step in the right direction, although their impact will not be felt for a number of years. Other reforms, with more immediate results, are necessary. Social safety nets should be made more efficient and social benefits should be better targeted.
Authored by: Marek Gora, Grzegorz Kula, Oleksandr Rohozynsky, Magdalena Rokicka, Anna Ruzik-Sierdzinska
Published in 2009
This paper studies costs and benefits of institutional harmonisation in the context of EU relations with its neighbors. The purpose of this paper is to outline the likely forms of institutional harmonisation between the EU and its Eastern neighbors and provide an
overview of the methodologies that can be used in measuring its effects (costs and benefits). This paper serves as a background for two measurement exercises – one on benefits and another on costs – that are to be undertaken during the second stage of research.
Authored by: Veliko Dimitrov, Vladimir Dubrovskiy, Anna Kolesnichenko, Irina Orlova
Published in 2007
This study surveys the current state of affairs in Poland with regard to the development of knowledge-intensive entrepreneurship (KIE), or new firm creation in industries considered to be science-based or to use research and development (R&D) intensively. We place KIE in Poland in the larger institutional context, outlining the key features of the country’s National Innovation System, and then focus on KIE itself. Our findings are perhaps more optimistic than many previous studies of knowledge-based economy development in Poland. We observe significant progress due to Polish access to the European Union. The frequency with which universities are playing a significant role as partners for firms in the innovation process has increased significantly; moreover, we observe a significant degree of internationalization of innovation-related cooperation. Another optimistic development is that the level of activity of venture capitalists seems to be fairly high in Poland considering the relatively low degree of development of capital markets offering VC investors exit opportunities. Moreover, after almost two decades of decline in the share of R&D spending in GDP, there are signs that this is beginning to rise, and that businesses are beginning to spend more on R&D. While demand-side problems continue to be significant barriers for the development of KIE, due to the relatively low level of education and GDP per capita in the country, the trends here are optimistic, with high rates of economic growth and improvements in the level of education of younger generations. Significant improvement is still needed in the area of intellectual property protection.
Authored by: Richard Woodward, Elzbieta Wojnicka, Wojciech Pander
Published in 2012
This report, titled "Age and Productivity. Human Capital Accumulation and Depreciation", was released within a project NEUJOBS- “The Impact of Service Sector Innovation and Internationalisation on Growth and Productivity”, funded by the European Commission, Research Directorate General as part of the 7th Framework Programme.
The report focuses on links between age, productivity and lifelong learning. Various data sources (EU-SILC, LFS, Structure of Earnings Survey, SHARE, ELSA, SHARELIFE) and methodological approaches were used in this report. The analysis identifies clusters of countries with common characteristics of age-earnings profiles (for certain groups of employees) and allows for an explanation of those differences. Some differences can be attributed to the share of sectors, education types, and occupations in country-specific employment. Others are due to labour market institutions and the (dis)incentives to work at older ages provided by social security systems. Additionally, the dynamics of earnings after age 50 differ less between educational and occupational groups than at earlier ages. The authors show that the dynamics of average wages are strongly influenced by the timing of entering and leaving labour market. An estimation of the impact of LLL on productivity (measuredby earnings) at older ages shows that for employees aged 50+, participation in training increases wages in the short-term.
Written by Anna Ruzik-Sierdzinska, Maciej Lis, Monika Potoczna, Michele Belloni and Claudia Villosio. Published in October 2013.
PDF available on our website at: http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/58334
This working document offers a conceptual framework for understanding the processes underpinning the external dimension of EU Justice and Home Affairs (ED-JHA). Practically, it defines how the export of JHA principles and norms inform the geopolitical ambitions of the EU, i.e. the use of space for political purposes, or the control and management of people, objects and movement. The author begins by investigating how the ENP reconfigures the ED-JHA, and then goes on to discuss various conceptual stances on governance, specifically institutionalism, constructivism, and policy instruments. To conclude he traces the evolution of this external dimension, emphasising, whenever possible, its continuities and bifurcations. Overall, the aim is to ascertain the extent to which conceptual designs clarify or advance our knowledge of the contents and rationales of the ED-JHA.
Authored by: Thierry Balzacq
Published in 2008
The paper discusses possible directions and magnitudes of the relationship between the social security driven tax wedge, employment and shadow employment in Russia and Ukraine. The first section presents a summary of the economic and institutional background for development of the current size and structure of the socially driven tax wedge in both countries. The second section presents some theoretical considerations on the relationship between the social protection system, tax wedge, non-employment and finally, shadow employment. The third section contains an attempt to econometrically estimate the magnitude of the possible relationship between the tax wedge and total employment rates in both countries. In the fourth section, the authors try to discover the mechanism of influence of the last reform of the Ukrainian payroll tax system on the structure and size of shadow employment in the country. The last analytical section closes the circle leading the reader back from shadow employment to wages and finally to the issue of access to social security institutions. The last section concludes.
Authored by: Marek Gora, Oleksandr Rohozynsky, Irina Sinitsina, Mateusz Walewski
Published in 2009
The paper focuses on the social safety nets in Russian Federation and Ukraine in the view of changes on the labour market since the beginning of economic transition. The authors showed that many past phenomena (e.g. restructuring of the economy, wage and pension arrears, new groups at-risk-of-poverty, demographic transition) caused a need to change an old type social safety net (SSN) into the new one, better adapted to emerging more liberal economy problems.
Additionally, the authors analysed some gender specific issues related to social security that are caused mainly by inequalities in the labour market. Differences of earnings between men and women in Russia caused by sector segregation account for seem to be more important than the gap between gender earnings attributed to the position. In Ukraine the main contributors to gross gender differential of log earnings (that equals to 32%) explained by our model are sector segregation and occupation.
The authors also pointed out to future policy challenges in the area of social security systems in both countries. The retirement reforms introduced recently are a step in the right direction, although their impact will not be felt for a number of years. Other reforms, with more immediate results, are necessary. Social safety nets should be made more efficient and social benefits should be better targeted.
Authored by: Marek Gora, Grzegorz Kula, Oleksandr Rohozynsky, Magdalena Rokicka, Anna Ruzik-Sierdzinska
Published in 2009
This paper studies costs and benefits of institutional harmonisation in the context of EU relations with its neighbors. The purpose of this paper is to outline the likely forms of institutional harmonisation between the EU and its Eastern neighbors and provide an
overview of the methodologies that can be used in measuring its effects (costs and benefits). This paper serves as a background for two measurement exercises – one on benefits and another on costs – that are to be undertaken during the second stage of research.
Authored by: Veliko Dimitrov, Vladimir Dubrovskiy, Anna Kolesnichenko, Irina Orlova
Published in 2007
This study surveys the current state of affairs in Poland with regard to the development of knowledge-intensive entrepreneurship (KIE), or new firm creation in industries considered to be science-based or to use research and development (R&D) intensively. We place KIE in Poland in the larger institutional context, outlining the key features of the country’s National Innovation System, and then focus on KIE itself. Our findings are perhaps more optimistic than many previous studies of knowledge-based economy development in Poland. We observe significant progress due to Polish access to the European Union. The frequency with which universities are playing a significant role as partners for firms in the innovation process has increased significantly; moreover, we observe a significant degree of internationalization of innovation-related cooperation. Another optimistic development is that the level of activity of venture capitalists seems to be fairly high in Poland considering the relatively low degree of development of capital markets offering VC investors exit opportunities. Moreover, after almost two decades of decline in the share of R&D spending in GDP, there are signs that this is beginning to rise, and that businesses are beginning to spend more on R&D. While demand-side problems continue to be significant barriers for the development of KIE, due to the relatively low level of education and GDP per capita in the country, the trends here are optimistic, with high rates of economic growth and improvements in the level of education of younger generations. Significant improvement is still needed in the area of intellectual property protection.
Authored by: Richard Woodward, Elzbieta Wojnicka, Wojciech Pander
Published in 2012
This report, titled "Age and Productivity. Human Capital Accumulation and Depreciation", was released within a project NEUJOBS- “The Impact of Service Sector Innovation and Internationalisation on Growth and Productivity”, funded by the European Commission, Research Directorate General as part of the 7th Framework Programme.
The report focuses on links between age, productivity and lifelong learning. Various data sources (EU-SILC, LFS, Structure of Earnings Survey, SHARE, ELSA, SHARELIFE) and methodological approaches were used in this report. The analysis identifies clusters of countries with common characteristics of age-earnings profiles (for certain groups of employees) and allows for an explanation of those differences. Some differences can be attributed to the share of sectors, education types, and occupations in country-specific employment. Others are due to labour market institutions and the (dis)incentives to work at older ages provided by social security systems. Additionally, the dynamics of earnings after age 50 differ less between educational and occupational groups than at earlier ages. The authors show that the dynamics of average wages are strongly influenced by the timing of entering and leaving labour market. An estimation of the impact of LLL on productivity (measuredby earnings) at older ages shows that for employees aged 50+, participation in training increases wages in the short-term.
Written by Anna Ruzik-Sierdzinska, Maciej Lis, Monika Potoczna, Michele Belloni and Claudia Villosio. Published in October 2013.
PDF available on our website at: http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/58334
This working document offers a conceptual framework for understanding the processes underpinning the external dimension of EU Justice and Home Affairs (ED-JHA). Practically, it defines how the export of JHA principles and norms inform the geopolitical ambitions of the EU, i.e. the use of space for political purposes, or the control and management of people, objects and movement. The author begins by investigating how the ENP reconfigures the ED-JHA, and then goes on to discuss various conceptual stances on governance, specifically institutionalism, constructivism, and policy instruments. To conclude he traces the evolution of this external dimension, emphasising, whenever possible, its continuities and bifurcations. Overall, the aim is to ascertain the extent to which conceptual designs clarify or advance our knowledge of the contents and rationales of the ED-JHA.
Authored by: Thierry Balzacq
Published in 2008
The empirical analysis of the determinants of institutional development in transition countries as well as the qualitative country studies summarized in this publication allow for some optimism concerning a potential impact of the EU on institution building and governance quality in CIS countries. Regression analysis reveals a positive impact of EU cooperation agreements below a membership perspective. Alternatively to the EU, entry into the NATO accession process also exerts incentives for better institutions which are often overlooked. In contrast, WTO membership is not found to have any impact on institution building in CIS countries. While there is room for some EU-related optimism given the results from the regression analysis it depends on the country-specific ENP action plans and programs whether or not ENP cooperation actually leads to Europeanization or institutional convergence towards EU standards in the CIS. The case studies on the effectiveness of Neighborhood Europeanization through ENP in Ukraine, Georgia, and Azerbaijan reveal that current EU policies towards these countries can be, at best, seen as a catalyst but not as a main driver of institutional convergence. A perspective for a stake in the internal market is on the long horizon for Ukraine only. ENP mechanisms for conflict resolution in Georgia and Azerbaijan have been rather weak before the recent clash in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The top-down institutional convergence, i.e. an EU-first strategy, worked well for Enlargement Europeanization but implemented in the ENP it significantly reduces the leverage of the EU to create a ring of well-governed neighbour states.
Authored by: Thorsten Drautzburg, Andrea Gawrich, Inna Melnykovska, Rainer Schweickert
Published in 2008
This paper analyzes the costs of (partial) institutional harmonization with the EU acquis which countries of the former USSR are expected to conduct under their Partnership and Cooperation Agreements with the EU and European Neighborhood Policy Action Plans. The public sector will have to take an effort of the transposition and adaptation of EU norms, as well as ensuring that they are complied with. Yet, the major part of the adjustment costs will fall on the private sector, as enterprises will have to make substantial investments to comply with new product requirements and business practices.
In this study we used the method of extrapolation of average costs for CEE countries’ harmonization with acquis to estimate the potential harmonization costs for the neighboring countries based on internationally comparative macroeconomic indicators like sectoral and total value added. This involved estimating the EU pre-accession support for the CEE countries by main areas as a percentage of the total or sectoral value added, determining the expected degree of limited harmonization in the ENP countries and estimating “coefficients of limited harmonization”, which was subsequently used for adjustment of the estimated cost of full harmonization.
Authored by: Veliko Dmitrov
In this paper we investigate the effects of EU enlargement on price convergence. The internal market is expected to boost integration and increase efficiency and welfare through a convergence of prices in product markets. Two principal drivers are crucial to explain price developments. On the one hand, higher competition exerts a downward pressure on prices because of lower mark ups. On the other hand, the catching up process of low income countries leads to a rise in the price levels and higher inflation over a transition period. Using comparative price levels for individual product categories price convergence can be established. However, the speed of convergence is rather slow, with half lives around 10 years. The enlargement has slightly stimulated the convergence process, and this impact is robust across different groups of countries. Moreover, the driving forces of convergence are explored. In line with theoretical predictions, the rise in competition exerts a downward pressure on prices, while catching up of low income countries leads to a rise in price levels.
Authored by: Christian Dreger, Konstantin Kholodilin, Kirsten Lommatzsch, Jirka Slacalek, Przemyslaw Wozniak
Published in 2007
This study seeks to determine the extent to which countries of the former Soviet Union are "infected" by the Dutch Disease. We take a detailed look at the functioning of the transmission mechanism of the Dutch Disease, i.e. the chains that run from commodity prices to real output in manufacturing. We complement this with two econometric exercises. First, we estimate nominal and real exchange rate models to see whether commodity prices are correlated with the exchange rate. Second, we run growth equations to analyse the possible effects of commodity prices and the dependency of economic growth on natural resources.
Authored by: Balazs Egert
Published in 2009
This paper is an overview of the achievements in the area of employee financial participation (EFP) during the last fifty years. It addresses the question of the extent to which EFP is relevant in today’s world. EFP is distinguished from participation in management (industrial democracy), and the various types of EP are discussed. The major arguments for EFP are presented and discussed critically. The evolution of major forms of EFP, the scale of their operation in several advanced economies, and the legal and tax incentives for EFP are described. The efforts of European Union bodies to popularise this idea in all member countries are illustrated. Showing that EFP has become a broadly recognised principle of modern management in thousands of enterprises, we consider opportunities for disseminating these solutions on a wider scale, in particular in Poland. Finally, a number of directions for further research on financial participation are considered.
Authored by: Barbara Blaszczyk
Published in 2014
The CIS region is of vital importance for the EU countries considering that both are interconnected through cooperation or membership in supranational political and economic institutions (OSCE, WTO, OECD, NATO, etc.), through transport and energy corridors, through investment, trade and migration trends.
The interests of EU member states in the region are very diverse and are sometimes pursued in contradiction to one another. The overarching interest is of an economic nature, given the large reserves of natural resources (particularly gas and oil) and due to the size of the CIS market of 277 million consumers. Security and immigration issues also rank high on the list, whereas EU countries are less concerned with democratisation trends in the CIS. Russia is the most important CIS partner for a majority of EU countries. Energy plays a disproportionally high role in EU member states (MS) - Russia relations and is also a strong determinant of the overall heterogeneity of EU MS policies towards Russia. The type of bilateral relations which the EU MS maintain with one sub-region of the CIS (particularly the EENP, but increasingly also Central Asia) also affects their relations with Russia. Cultural closeness and a common history still play a large part in the development of bilateral relations. The accession to the EU of Central and Eastern European states has altered the existing relations between them and their eastern CIS neighbours, thereby also modifying their interests in the region. Regrettably, the EU's policies towards Russia and the EENP region have not yet been able to provide a playing field able to compensate for this alteration.
Thus, the present report studies the various interests (political, security, economic, cultural) which underpin relations between the EU member states and the CIS countries and also discusses the latest developments in EU policies towards a specific CIS sub-region (Russia, the Eastern ENP and Central Asia), thereby providing a broad picture of the type of interests, how they are pursued by the EU member states and where these intersect or clash.
Authored by: George Dura
Published in 2008
Does European economic integration create more inequality between domestic regions, or is the opposite true? We show that a general answer to this question does not exist, and that the outcome depends on the liberalisation scenario. In order to examine the impact of European and international integration on the regions, the paper develops a numerical simulation model with nine countries and 90 regions. Eastward extension of European integration is beneficial for old as well as new member countries, but within countries the impact varies across regions. Reduction in distance-related trade costs is particularly good for the European peripheries. Each liberalisation scenario has a distinct impact on the spatial income distribution, and there is no general rule telling that integration causes more or less agglomeration.
Authored by Arne Melchior
Published in 2009
The current fiscal imbalances and fragilities in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMC) are the result of decades of instability, but have become more visible since 2008, when a combination of adverse economic and political shocks (the global and European financial crises, Arab Spring) hit the region. In an environment of slower growth and higher public expenditure pressures, fiscal deficits and public debts have increased rapidly. This has led to the deterioration of current accounts, a depletion of official reserves, the depreciation of some currencies and higher inflationary pressure.
To avoid the danger of public debt and a balance-of-payment crisis, comprehensive economic reforms, including fiscal adjustment, are urgently needed. These reforms should involve eliminating energy and food subsidies and replacing them with targeted social assistance, reducing the oversized public administration and privatizing public sector enterprises, improving the business climate, increasing trade and investment openness, and sector diversification. The SEMC may also benefit from a peace dividend if the numerous internal and regional conflicts are resolved.
However, the success of economic reforms will depend on the results of the political transition, i.e., the ability to build stable democratic regimes which can resist populist temptations and rally political support for more rational economic policies.
Authored by: Marek Dąbrowski
Published in 2014
This paper claims that the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) of the EU, and in particular the elements related to justice and home affairs (JHA), is a complex, multilayered initiative that incorporates different logics and instruments. To unravel the various layers of the policy, the paper proceeds in three steps: firstly, it lays out some facts pertaining to the origins of the ENP, as its ‘origins’ arguably account for a number of the core tensions. It then presents the underlying logic and objectives attributed to JHA cooperation, which can be derived from the viewpoints voiced during policy formulation. The paper goes on to argue that despite the existence of different logics, there is a unifying objective, which is to ‘extra-territorialise’ the management of ‘threats’ to the neighbouring countries. The core of the paper presents the various policy measures that have been put in place to achieve external ‘threat management’. In this context it is argued that the ’conditionality-inspired policy instruments’, namely monitoring and benchmarking of progress, transfer of legal and institutional models to non-member states and inter-governmental negotiations, contain socialisation elements that rely on the common values approach. This mix of conditionality and socialisation instruments is illustrated in two case studies, one on the fight against terrorism and one on irregular migration. Finally, the paper recommends that the EU draft an Action-Oriented Paper (AOP) on JHA cooperation with the ENP countries that indicates how the EU intends to balance the conflicting objectives and instruments that are currently present in the JHA provisions of the ENP.
Authored by: Nicole Wichmann
Published in 2007
Labor migration from Eastern Europe and the member countries of Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to the Western countries became an important socio-economic issue. Since political systems and the nature of border management in these regions, migrations turned out to be a very complex and unpredictable issue. The purpose of this study is to analyze the region specific actors, practices and policies of migration in the Eastern countries, the possible scenarios and demographic consequences of the future migration flows. In order to address this issue properly, some of the complexities of labor migration phenomenon in the region are uncovered.
Authored by: Xavier Chojnicki, Ainura Uzagalieva
Published in 2008
The aim of the project is to analyze government support for innovation in a comparative perspective by first examining the main existing instruments of financial support for innovation in Turkey and Poland, and secondly to assess their effectiveness by applying recent econometric techniques to firm-level data for both countries obtained from the Community Innovation Survey (CIS).
Authored by: Wojciech Grabowski, M. Teoman Pamukcu, Krzysztof Szczygielski, Sinan Tandogan
Published in 2013
The paper shows that the question that is relevant for the debate on the efficacy of development assistance is not so much as an issue of how much, but rather for what. In view of the growing awareness of ODA’s inefficiency in achieving intended aims, this paper proposes an alternative approach to development assistance policies – economic integration and subsidiarity provides the conditions necessary for ODA to produce higher rates of economic growth on a sustainable basis. Europe is an excellent case in point, in this context. Europe has in the last decades experienced a number of success stories in moving out of poverty and onto sustainable economic growth. The secret of success has been the push towards economic integration, and the adoption of economic reforms at the local, national, and regional level conducive to economic growth. The recipient countries of development assistance have much to learn from the European experience.
This paper analyses the public finance performance and the dynamics of government expenditures on education and health in the Kyrgyz Republic in 2007-2010, when the country was hit by the global economic crisis and then by an internal political crisis in 2010. Despite these crisis conditions, public health expenditures have increased substantially. In education, recurrent expenditures have been protected, while capital investments have been cut dramatically. Both sectors suffer from chronic under-financing, which results in an insufficient quality of services. The country's fiscal situation in the medium-term is going to be difficult, so efficiency-oriented reforms need to be implemented in health care and especially in education in order to sustain the development of these critical services in Kyrgyzstan.
Authored by: Roman Mogilevsky
Published in 2011
Institutional harmonization is an important part of European integration, and its effects are more far reaching than the effects of trade liberalization. In its policy towards neighbors (the European Neighborhood Policy, ENP), the EU puts a lot of stress on the desirability of institutional harmonization, at least in certain areas. In particular, the free trade agreements that the EU envisages concluding with its Eastern neighbors will involve substantial harmonization of product standards, competition policy and a range of other policies and processes. At the very least, the harmonization will have to focus on the areas that relate to improvement of market access, i.e. removing restrictions to trade, harmonizing product standards and the systems of quality control etc. But in order to implement the new standards and rules, the EU neighbors will have to reform many related areas, so that the harmonization will encompass the whole system of economic governance. Not only will such a revamp help attaining better access to the EU markets, but also (and probably more importantly) it will stimulate modernization of the neighbors' economies and bring much needed efficiency gains.
In measurement of benefits of harmonization we refer to two methods: one based on the computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling of welfare effects of better market access, and the other employing a growth model to estimate the wider effects of European institutions on growth. The estimation of costs of harmonization bases on extrapolation of the analogous costs in other countries, in particular CEE. These costs include expenses by a public sector on introduction of harmonization measures, as well as private sector expenses and investments related to their implementation.
Authored by: Anna Kolesnichenko
Published in 2009
The Orange Revolution in the fall of 2004 built great hopes for a better future for Ukraine. However, three years later those hopes have been replaced by disappointment, frustration and confusion. Although progress in the areas of political freedom, pluralism, civil rights and freedom in the media remains unquestionable the record of economic, institutional and legal reforms is much more problematic. The key macroeconomic indicators are not better than they were few years ago and the business climate has barely improved. The WTO accession process remains incomplete. The perspectives of Euro-Atlantic integration are continually subject to heated domestic political controversies. The political situation remains unstable, mostly due to the hasty constitutional changes that were adopted during the Orange Revolution.
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the state of the Ukrainian economy at the end of 2007 and reflect upon what kind of reform program the Ukrainian government should consider, regardless of its political color. The reforms suggested in this paper involve a broad agenda of macroeconomic, social, structural and institutional measures. This agenda goes beyond the purely economic sphere and also addresses issues of legal, administrative and political reforms. The politics and political economy of any future reform effort will not be easy because the country is deeply divided in political, cultural, regional and ethnic terms. In such an environment, crucial reforms and strategic decisions will require a wider cross-party political consensus.
Authored by: Marek Dąbrowski
Published in 2007
The importance of new firm creation in the post-Communist economies of East Central Europe (ECE) has been subject to extensive research. This paper focuses on an area of entrepreneurship which has received relatively little attention in the transition economy context but which is of particular importance for the modernization of the transition economies: knowledge-based entrepreneurship (KBE), or new firm creation in industries considered to be science-based or to use research and development (R&D) intensively. We begin by sketching the situation in Estonia‟s small and medium-sized business sector, then proceed to study the conditions for high-tech firm development in the country, with particular attention devoted to the development of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), which have been of particular significance in the Estonian case, as well as the questions of finance and policy initiatives. We then turn to the analysis of a series of case studies of firms active in the areas of information technology, life sciences, and digital mapping and navigation technology. Among the issues treated are the resources and strategies involved in KBE in Estonia, the relationships (networks) of the firms in question and how they are used for knowledge acquisition, and barriers to innovation and development. In spite of a relative lack of government support, we find that overall Estonia appears to be one of the better locations for KBE in the ECE region, with rising R&D spending, a highly educated entrepreneurial class, and universities that have moved forward rapidly in the development of technology transfer support facilities. The firms studied here rely for much of their success on foreign markets; on the other hand, difficulties in internationalisation can be identified as one of the key bottlenecks for the development of Estonian KBE. In the area of business relationships and networks, academic partners dominate.
Authored by: Janita Andrijevskaja, Tonis Mets, Urmas Varblane
Published in 2010
During the last two decades the CIS countries have received very significant amounts of technical assistance from international development organizations and bilateral donors. While this has played a positive and important role in the transformation of these societies, practically all stakeholders currently share the opinion that many problems have accumulated in the area of technical cooperation with CIS countries. This paper intends to outline these problems, analyze their underlying reasons - including the changing environment for technical cooperation in the CIS - and the interaction of the interests of beneficiaries, donors and providers in the process of implementing technical cooperation projects. The analysis suggests that a good understanding, recognition and coordination of the interests of all TC stakeholders and a reduction in the information gap between the various participants in the technical cooperation process are necessary for improving the effectiveness of technical cooperation.
Authored by: Aziz Atamanov, Roman Mogilevsky
Published in 2008
The paper discusses possible directions and magnitudes of the relationship between the social security driven tax wedge, employment and shadow employment in Russia and Ukraine. The first section presents a summary of the economic and institutional background for development of the current size and structure of the socially driven tax wedge in both countries. The second section presents some theoretical considerations on the relationship between the social protection system, tax wedge, non-employment and finally, shadow employment. The third section contains an attempt to econometrically estimate the magnitude of the possible relationship between the tax wedge and total employment rates in both countries. In the fourth section, the authors try to discover the mechanism of influence of the last reform of the Ukrainian payroll tax system on the structure and size of shadow employment in the country. The last analytical section closes the circle leading the reader back from shadow employment to wages and finally to the issue of access to social security institutions. The last section concludes.
Authored by: Marek Gora, Oleksandr Rohozynsky, Irina Sinitsina, Mateusz Walewski
Published in 2009
In this paper the author presents a general assessment of the labour market situation of older workers in the Czech Republic, starting with a more general overview of the demographic situation and emphasizing the generational differences among the young-old and older cohorts, underlying a number of different problems as well as solutions. Further in the paper she addresses the impact of the recent economic situation on employment levels, showing that the recovery in terms of employment has not yet begun and that the impact on older workers is (at least) two-fold: firstly, for older workers it is very difficult to find a new job once unemployed; secondly, if employed, the pressure on workability and the increasing demands of workplaces may be harder to bear for the older the worker. She describes a National Action Plan Supporting Positive Ageing (2013-2017) and other examples of good and transferable praxes which address some of the active ageing issues in an innovative way.
The second part of this report examines the issues of employability, workability and age-management as perceived by some of the key actors. The report goes into greater detail on the topic of paid work after retirement, which is considered an important part of the Czech economy, despite the fact that the employment of sizable groups of older workers after retirement is undeclared. Self-entrepreneurship and independent work in later life are another realm of employment that is increasing in importance in the Czech economy; however, as consulted experts argue, it is not to be taken as an unproblematic solution to late-life careers. In the last chapter the author turns her attention to the lifelong learning of older workers and to their up-skilling/retraining. In the concluding remarks, she reemphasizes the need to address the heterogeneity of the older workforce, in the sense of age/generational affiliation, health, socio-economic and other characteristics.
Authored by: Lucie Vidovicova
Published in 2014
This paper provides the results of analyses of key problems related to pension systems and their reforms in Russia and Ukraine. The pension systems and their reforms in both countries are compared. They are also compared with the general picture observed in the OECD or selected countries belonging to that area. The analysis focuses on long-term trends rather than short-term shocks. The recent economic crisis is not covered since the analysis was mostly completed by 2008.
Authored by: Marek Gora, Oleksandr Rohozynsky, Oksana Sinyavskaya
Published in 2010
The empirical analysis of the determinants of institutional development in transition countries as well as the qualitative country studies summarized in this publication allow for some optimism concerning a potential impact of the EU on institution building and governance quality in CIS countries. Regression analysis reveals a positive impact of EU cooperation agreements below a membership perspective. Alternatively to the EU, entry into the NATO accession process also exerts incentives for better institutions which are often overlooked. In contrast, WTO membership is not found to have any impact on institution building in CIS countries. While there is room for some EU-related optimism given the results from the regression analysis it depends on the country-specific ENP action plans and programs whether or not ENP cooperation actually leads to Europeanization or institutional convergence towards EU standards in the CIS. The case studies on the effectiveness of Neighborhood Europeanization through ENP in Ukraine, Georgia, and Azerbaijan reveal that current EU policies towards these countries can be, at best, seen as a catalyst but not as a main driver of institutional convergence. A perspective for a stake in the internal market is on the long horizon for Ukraine only. ENP mechanisms for conflict resolution in Georgia and Azerbaijan have been rather weak before the recent clash in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The top-down institutional convergence, i.e. an EU-first strategy, worked well for Enlargement Europeanization but implemented in the ENP it significantly reduces the leverage of the EU to create a ring of well-governed neighbour states.
Authored by: Thorsten Drautzburg, Andrea Gawrich, Inna Melnykovska, Rainer Schweickert
Published in 2008
This paper analyzes the costs of (partial) institutional harmonization with the EU acquis which countries of the former USSR are expected to conduct under their Partnership and Cooperation Agreements with the EU and European Neighborhood Policy Action Plans. The public sector will have to take an effort of the transposition and adaptation of EU norms, as well as ensuring that they are complied with. Yet, the major part of the adjustment costs will fall on the private sector, as enterprises will have to make substantial investments to comply with new product requirements and business practices.
In this study we used the method of extrapolation of average costs for CEE countries’ harmonization with acquis to estimate the potential harmonization costs for the neighboring countries based on internationally comparative macroeconomic indicators like sectoral and total value added. This involved estimating the EU pre-accession support for the CEE countries by main areas as a percentage of the total or sectoral value added, determining the expected degree of limited harmonization in the ENP countries and estimating “coefficients of limited harmonization”, which was subsequently used for adjustment of the estimated cost of full harmonization.
Authored by: Veliko Dmitrov
In this paper we investigate the effects of EU enlargement on price convergence. The internal market is expected to boost integration and increase efficiency and welfare through a convergence of prices in product markets. Two principal drivers are crucial to explain price developments. On the one hand, higher competition exerts a downward pressure on prices because of lower mark ups. On the other hand, the catching up process of low income countries leads to a rise in the price levels and higher inflation over a transition period. Using comparative price levels for individual product categories price convergence can be established. However, the speed of convergence is rather slow, with half lives around 10 years. The enlargement has slightly stimulated the convergence process, and this impact is robust across different groups of countries. Moreover, the driving forces of convergence are explored. In line with theoretical predictions, the rise in competition exerts a downward pressure on prices, while catching up of low income countries leads to a rise in price levels.
Authored by: Christian Dreger, Konstantin Kholodilin, Kirsten Lommatzsch, Jirka Slacalek, Przemyslaw Wozniak
Published in 2007
This study seeks to determine the extent to which countries of the former Soviet Union are "infected" by the Dutch Disease. We take a detailed look at the functioning of the transmission mechanism of the Dutch Disease, i.e. the chains that run from commodity prices to real output in manufacturing. We complement this with two econometric exercises. First, we estimate nominal and real exchange rate models to see whether commodity prices are correlated with the exchange rate. Second, we run growth equations to analyse the possible effects of commodity prices and the dependency of economic growth on natural resources.
Authored by: Balazs Egert
Published in 2009
This paper is an overview of the achievements in the area of employee financial participation (EFP) during the last fifty years. It addresses the question of the extent to which EFP is relevant in today’s world. EFP is distinguished from participation in management (industrial democracy), and the various types of EP are discussed. The major arguments for EFP are presented and discussed critically. The evolution of major forms of EFP, the scale of their operation in several advanced economies, and the legal and tax incentives for EFP are described. The efforts of European Union bodies to popularise this idea in all member countries are illustrated. Showing that EFP has become a broadly recognised principle of modern management in thousands of enterprises, we consider opportunities for disseminating these solutions on a wider scale, in particular in Poland. Finally, a number of directions for further research on financial participation are considered.
Authored by: Barbara Blaszczyk
Published in 2014
The CIS region is of vital importance for the EU countries considering that both are interconnected through cooperation or membership in supranational political and economic institutions (OSCE, WTO, OECD, NATO, etc.), through transport and energy corridors, through investment, trade and migration trends.
The interests of EU member states in the region are very diverse and are sometimes pursued in contradiction to one another. The overarching interest is of an economic nature, given the large reserves of natural resources (particularly gas and oil) and due to the size of the CIS market of 277 million consumers. Security and immigration issues also rank high on the list, whereas EU countries are less concerned with democratisation trends in the CIS. Russia is the most important CIS partner for a majority of EU countries. Energy plays a disproportionally high role in EU member states (MS) - Russia relations and is also a strong determinant of the overall heterogeneity of EU MS policies towards Russia. The type of bilateral relations which the EU MS maintain with one sub-region of the CIS (particularly the EENP, but increasingly also Central Asia) also affects their relations with Russia. Cultural closeness and a common history still play a large part in the development of bilateral relations. The accession to the EU of Central and Eastern European states has altered the existing relations between them and their eastern CIS neighbours, thereby also modifying their interests in the region. Regrettably, the EU's policies towards Russia and the EENP region have not yet been able to provide a playing field able to compensate for this alteration.
Thus, the present report studies the various interests (political, security, economic, cultural) which underpin relations between the EU member states and the CIS countries and also discusses the latest developments in EU policies towards a specific CIS sub-region (Russia, the Eastern ENP and Central Asia), thereby providing a broad picture of the type of interests, how they are pursued by the EU member states and where these intersect or clash.
Authored by: George Dura
Published in 2008
Does European economic integration create more inequality between domestic regions, or is the opposite true? We show that a general answer to this question does not exist, and that the outcome depends on the liberalisation scenario. In order to examine the impact of European and international integration on the regions, the paper develops a numerical simulation model with nine countries and 90 regions. Eastward extension of European integration is beneficial for old as well as new member countries, but within countries the impact varies across regions. Reduction in distance-related trade costs is particularly good for the European peripheries. Each liberalisation scenario has a distinct impact on the spatial income distribution, and there is no general rule telling that integration causes more or less agglomeration.
Authored by Arne Melchior
Published in 2009
The current fiscal imbalances and fragilities in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMC) are the result of decades of instability, but have become more visible since 2008, when a combination of adverse economic and political shocks (the global and European financial crises, Arab Spring) hit the region. In an environment of slower growth and higher public expenditure pressures, fiscal deficits and public debts have increased rapidly. This has led to the deterioration of current accounts, a depletion of official reserves, the depreciation of some currencies and higher inflationary pressure.
To avoid the danger of public debt and a balance-of-payment crisis, comprehensive economic reforms, including fiscal adjustment, are urgently needed. These reforms should involve eliminating energy and food subsidies and replacing them with targeted social assistance, reducing the oversized public administration and privatizing public sector enterprises, improving the business climate, increasing trade and investment openness, and sector diversification. The SEMC may also benefit from a peace dividend if the numerous internal and regional conflicts are resolved.
However, the success of economic reforms will depend on the results of the political transition, i.e., the ability to build stable democratic regimes which can resist populist temptations and rally political support for more rational economic policies.
Authored by: Marek Dąbrowski
Published in 2014
This paper claims that the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) of the EU, and in particular the elements related to justice and home affairs (JHA), is a complex, multilayered initiative that incorporates different logics and instruments. To unravel the various layers of the policy, the paper proceeds in three steps: firstly, it lays out some facts pertaining to the origins of the ENP, as its ‘origins’ arguably account for a number of the core tensions. It then presents the underlying logic and objectives attributed to JHA cooperation, which can be derived from the viewpoints voiced during policy formulation. The paper goes on to argue that despite the existence of different logics, there is a unifying objective, which is to ‘extra-territorialise’ the management of ‘threats’ to the neighbouring countries. The core of the paper presents the various policy measures that have been put in place to achieve external ‘threat management’. In this context it is argued that the ’conditionality-inspired policy instruments’, namely monitoring and benchmarking of progress, transfer of legal and institutional models to non-member states and inter-governmental negotiations, contain socialisation elements that rely on the common values approach. This mix of conditionality and socialisation instruments is illustrated in two case studies, one on the fight against terrorism and one on irregular migration. Finally, the paper recommends that the EU draft an Action-Oriented Paper (AOP) on JHA cooperation with the ENP countries that indicates how the EU intends to balance the conflicting objectives and instruments that are currently present in the JHA provisions of the ENP.
Authored by: Nicole Wichmann
Published in 2007
Labor migration from Eastern Europe and the member countries of Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to the Western countries became an important socio-economic issue. Since political systems and the nature of border management in these regions, migrations turned out to be a very complex and unpredictable issue. The purpose of this study is to analyze the region specific actors, practices and policies of migration in the Eastern countries, the possible scenarios and demographic consequences of the future migration flows. In order to address this issue properly, some of the complexities of labor migration phenomenon in the region are uncovered.
Authored by: Xavier Chojnicki, Ainura Uzagalieva
Published in 2008
The aim of the project is to analyze government support for innovation in a comparative perspective by first examining the main existing instruments of financial support for innovation in Turkey and Poland, and secondly to assess their effectiveness by applying recent econometric techniques to firm-level data for both countries obtained from the Community Innovation Survey (CIS).
Authored by: Wojciech Grabowski, M. Teoman Pamukcu, Krzysztof Szczygielski, Sinan Tandogan
Published in 2013
The paper shows that the question that is relevant for the debate on the efficacy of development assistance is not so much as an issue of how much, but rather for what. In view of the growing awareness of ODA’s inefficiency in achieving intended aims, this paper proposes an alternative approach to development assistance policies – economic integration and subsidiarity provides the conditions necessary for ODA to produce higher rates of economic growth on a sustainable basis. Europe is an excellent case in point, in this context. Europe has in the last decades experienced a number of success stories in moving out of poverty and onto sustainable economic growth. The secret of success has been the push towards economic integration, and the adoption of economic reforms at the local, national, and regional level conducive to economic growth. The recipient countries of development assistance have much to learn from the European experience.
This paper analyses the public finance performance and the dynamics of government expenditures on education and health in the Kyrgyz Republic in 2007-2010, when the country was hit by the global economic crisis and then by an internal political crisis in 2010. Despite these crisis conditions, public health expenditures have increased substantially. In education, recurrent expenditures have been protected, while capital investments have been cut dramatically. Both sectors suffer from chronic under-financing, which results in an insufficient quality of services. The country's fiscal situation in the medium-term is going to be difficult, so efficiency-oriented reforms need to be implemented in health care and especially in education in order to sustain the development of these critical services in Kyrgyzstan.
Authored by: Roman Mogilevsky
Published in 2011
Institutional harmonization is an important part of European integration, and its effects are more far reaching than the effects of trade liberalization. In its policy towards neighbors (the European Neighborhood Policy, ENP), the EU puts a lot of stress on the desirability of institutional harmonization, at least in certain areas. In particular, the free trade agreements that the EU envisages concluding with its Eastern neighbors will involve substantial harmonization of product standards, competition policy and a range of other policies and processes. At the very least, the harmonization will have to focus on the areas that relate to improvement of market access, i.e. removing restrictions to trade, harmonizing product standards and the systems of quality control etc. But in order to implement the new standards and rules, the EU neighbors will have to reform many related areas, so that the harmonization will encompass the whole system of economic governance. Not only will such a revamp help attaining better access to the EU markets, but also (and probably more importantly) it will stimulate modernization of the neighbors' economies and bring much needed efficiency gains.
In measurement of benefits of harmonization we refer to two methods: one based on the computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling of welfare effects of better market access, and the other employing a growth model to estimate the wider effects of European institutions on growth. The estimation of costs of harmonization bases on extrapolation of the analogous costs in other countries, in particular CEE. These costs include expenses by a public sector on introduction of harmonization measures, as well as private sector expenses and investments related to their implementation.
Authored by: Anna Kolesnichenko
Published in 2009
The Orange Revolution in the fall of 2004 built great hopes for a better future for Ukraine. However, three years later those hopes have been replaced by disappointment, frustration and confusion. Although progress in the areas of political freedom, pluralism, civil rights and freedom in the media remains unquestionable the record of economic, institutional and legal reforms is much more problematic. The key macroeconomic indicators are not better than they were few years ago and the business climate has barely improved. The WTO accession process remains incomplete. The perspectives of Euro-Atlantic integration are continually subject to heated domestic political controversies. The political situation remains unstable, mostly due to the hasty constitutional changes that were adopted during the Orange Revolution.
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the state of the Ukrainian economy at the end of 2007 and reflect upon what kind of reform program the Ukrainian government should consider, regardless of its political color. The reforms suggested in this paper involve a broad agenda of macroeconomic, social, structural and institutional measures. This agenda goes beyond the purely economic sphere and also addresses issues of legal, administrative and political reforms. The politics and political economy of any future reform effort will not be easy because the country is deeply divided in political, cultural, regional and ethnic terms. In such an environment, crucial reforms and strategic decisions will require a wider cross-party political consensus.
Authored by: Marek Dąbrowski
Published in 2007
The importance of new firm creation in the post-Communist economies of East Central Europe (ECE) has been subject to extensive research. This paper focuses on an area of entrepreneurship which has received relatively little attention in the transition economy context but which is of particular importance for the modernization of the transition economies: knowledge-based entrepreneurship (KBE), or new firm creation in industries considered to be science-based or to use research and development (R&D) intensively. We begin by sketching the situation in Estonia‟s small and medium-sized business sector, then proceed to study the conditions for high-tech firm development in the country, with particular attention devoted to the development of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), which have been of particular significance in the Estonian case, as well as the questions of finance and policy initiatives. We then turn to the analysis of a series of case studies of firms active in the areas of information technology, life sciences, and digital mapping and navigation technology. Among the issues treated are the resources and strategies involved in KBE in Estonia, the relationships (networks) of the firms in question and how they are used for knowledge acquisition, and barriers to innovation and development. In spite of a relative lack of government support, we find that overall Estonia appears to be one of the better locations for KBE in the ECE region, with rising R&D spending, a highly educated entrepreneurial class, and universities that have moved forward rapidly in the development of technology transfer support facilities. The firms studied here rely for much of their success on foreign markets; on the other hand, difficulties in internationalisation can be identified as one of the key bottlenecks for the development of Estonian KBE. In the area of business relationships and networks, academic partners dominate.
Authored by: Janita Andrijevskaja, Tonis Mets, Urmas Varblane
Published in 2010
During the last two decades the CIS countries have received very significant amounts of technical assistance from international development organizations and bilateral donors. While this has played a positive and important role in the transformation of these societies, practically all stakeholders currently share the opinion that many problems have accumulated in the area of technical cooperation with CIS countries. This paper intends to outline these problems, analyze their underlying reasons - including the changing environment for technical cooperation in the CIS - and the interaction of the interests of beneficiaries, donors and providers in the process of implementing technical cooperation projects. The analysis suggests that a good understanding, recognition and coordination of the interests of all TC stakeholders and a reduction in the information gap between the various participants in the technical cooperation process are necessary for improving the effectiveness of technical cooperation.
Authored by: Aziz Atamanov, Roman Mogilevsky
Published in 2008
CASE Network Studies and Analyses 369 - Technical Assistance to CIS Countries
Similar to CASE Network Studies and Analyses 397 - Restructuring and Social Safety Nets in Russia and Ukraine - Social Security Influence on Labor Mobility: Possible Opportunities and Challenges
The paper discusses possible directions and magnitudes of the relationship between the social security driven tax wedge, employment and shadow employment in Russia and Ukraine. The first section presents a summary of the economic and institutional background for development of the current size and structure of the socially driven tax wedge in both countries. The second section presents some theoretical considerations on the relationship between the social protection system, tax wedge, non-employment and finally, shadow employment. The third section contains an attempt to econometrically estimate the magnitude of the possible relationship between the tax wedge and total employment rates in both countries. In the fourth section, the authors try to discover the mechanism of influence of the last reform of the Ukrainian payroll tax system on the structure and size of shadow employment in the country. The last analytical section closes the circle leading the reader back from shadow employment to wages and finally to the issue of access to social security institutions. The last section concludes.
Authored by: Marek Gora, Oleksandr Rohozynsky, Irina Sinitsina, Mateusz Walewski
Published in 2009
In this paper the author presents a general assessment of the labour market situation of older workers in the Czech Republic, starting with a more general overview of the demographic situation and emphasizing the generational differences among the young-old and older cohorts, underlying a number of different problems as well as solutions. Further in the paper she addresses the impact of the recent economic situation on employment levels, showing that the recovery in terms of employment has not yet begun and that the impact on older workers is (at least) two-fold: firstly, for older workers it is very difficult to find a new job once unemployed; secondly, if employed, the pressure on workability and the increasing demands of workplaces may be harder to bear for the older the worker. She describes a National Action Plan Supporting Positive Ageing (2013-2017) and other examples of good and transferable praxes which address some of the active ageing issues in an innovative way.
The second part of this report examines the issues of employability, workability and age-management as perceived by some of the key actors. The report goes into greater detail on the topic of paid work after retirement, which is considered an important part of the Czech economy, despite the fact that the employment of sizable groups of older workers after retirement is undeclared. Self-entrepreneurship and independent work in later life are another realm of employment that is increasing in importance in the Czech economy; however, as consulted experts argue, it is not to be taken as an unproblematic solution to late-life careers. In the last chapter the author turns her attention to the lifelong learning of older workers and to their up-skilling/retraining. In the concluding remarks, she reemphasizes the need to address the heterogeneity of the older workforce, in the sense of age/generational affiliation, health, socio-economic and other characteristics.
Authored by: Lucie Vidovicova
Published in 2014
This paper provides the results of analyses of key problems related to pension systems and their reforms in Russia and Ukraine. The pension systems and their reforms in both countries are compared. They are also compared with the general picture observed in the OECD or selected countries belonging to that area. The analysis focuses on long-term trends rather than short-term shocks. The recent economic crisis is not covered since the analysis was mostly completed by 2008.
Authored by: Marek Gora, Oleksandr Rohozynsky, Oksana Sinyavskaya
Published in 2010
Current report aims to identify major existing gaps in the four socio-economic dimensions (economic, human, environmental, and institutional) and to reveal those gaps which could potentially hinder social and economic integration of neighbor states with the EU. To achieve this, the authors aim to assess the existing trends in the size of the gaps across countries and problem areas, taking into consideration the specific origin of the gap between EU15/EU12, on the one hand, and FSU republics, EU candidates and West Balkan countries, on the other hand.
Authored by: Alexander Chubrik, Irina Denisova, Vladimir Dubrovskiy, Marina Kartseva, Irina Makenbaeva, Magdalena Rokicka, Irina Sinitsina, Michael Tokmazishvili
Published in 2007
After a long period in which state-led development was the dominant economic paradigm, since the 1980s private sector development has been the focus for economic policy makers. It is probably no coincidence that economic growth, stagnant for a few decades in much of the developing world, took off in the 1990s after this policy shift, and has generally remained high (in spite of a wave of crises and recessions in the late 1990s and early 2000s). Privatization has made a great deal of progress in the developing world, particularly in Latin America, though the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) have lagged somewhat.
Authored by: Richard Woodward, Mehdi Safavi, Piotr Kozarzewski
Published in 2012
The aim of this report is a deepened recognition of employment in long-term care (LTC). It presents past and future trends in the development of LTC employment. Authors collected scattered statistical information, estimated lacking data and projected future growth in the number of employed in care services. Performed analysis includes employment in the health and social sector and across various types of care. Projections of the demand for care and supply of the LTC workforce are based on the demographic prognosis of the population size and changes in the age structure taking into account different scenarios for demographic development. Results show the growing gap between demand and supply in the LTC employment. The policy towards aging in Poland must take up the challenge of growing care needs, family changes and lower opportunities for provision of informal care.
Authored by: Stanislawa Golinowska, Ewa Kocot, Agnieszka Sowa
Published in 2014
This paper investigates the differences in innovation behaviour, i.e. differences in innovation sources and innovation effects, among manufacturing firms in three NMS: the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. It is based on a survey of firms operating in four manufacturing industries: food and beverages, automotive, pharmaceuticals and electronics. The paper takes into account: innovation inputs in enterprises, cooperation among firms in R&D activities, the benefits of cooperation with business partners and innovation effects (innovation outputs and international competitiveness of firms' products and technology) in the three countries. After employing cluster analysis, five types of innovation patterns were detected. The paper characterises and compares these innovation patterns, highlighting differences and similarities. The paper shows that external knowledge plays an important role in innovation activities in NMS firms. The ability to explore cooperation with business partners and the benefits of using external knowledge are determined by in-house innovation activities, notably R&D intensity.
Authored by: Ewa Balcerowicz, Marek Pęczkowski, Anna Wziatek-Kubiak
Published in 2009
This paper focuses on knowledge-based entrepreneurship, or new firm creation in industries which are considered to be science-based or to use research and development intensively, in the East Central European (ECE) context. On the basis of case studies of thirteen knowledge-based firms in six ECE countries, we suggest that KBE firms in these countries may differ in some important ways from the conventional picture of new technology based firms. In general, we see the ECE knowledge-intensive firm as a knowledge-localiser or customiser, adapting global knowledge to local needs on the domestic market, rather than a knowledge-creator generating new solutions for global markets. The entrepreneurs who start and run these businesses are skilled at spotting trends early and bringing them to their countries. Based in countries that generally have poor reputations as sources of innovative, high-technology products, but having established strong brands for themselves in their home markets, they are struggling with the challenge of entering export markets with products and services that can achieve global, or at least regional, recognition. The studies of the companies discussed here suggest that ECE firms are still in the early stages of this strategic shift.
Authored by: Slavo Radosevic, Richard Woodward, Deniz Eylem Yoruk
Published in 2011
The report aims to identify major existing gaps in the five socio-economic dimensions (economic, human, openness, environmental, and institutional) and to reveal those gaps which could potentially hinder social and economic integration of neighbor states with the EU. To achieve this, the authors aim to assess the existing trends in the size of the gaps across countries and problem areas, taking into consideration the specific origin of the gap between EU15/EU12, on the one hand, and FSU republics, EU candidates and West Balkan countries, on the other hand.
Authored by: Aziz Atamanov, Alexander Chubrik, Irina Denisova, Vladimir Dubrovskiy, Marina Kartseva, Irina Lukashova, Irina Makenbaeva, Magdalena Rokicka, Irina Sinitsina
Published in 2008
Michael Tokmazishvili
In this paper the authors undertake an ex-post evaluation of whether the special economic zones (SEZs) introduced in Poland in 1994 have been successful in meeting regional development objectives. They evaluate the policy of as many of its objectives as possible: employment creation, business creation (which includes attracting foreign direct investment), income or wage effects, and environmental sustainability. They use different panel data methods to investigate this question at the powiat and gmina levels in Poland during the 1995-2011 period. It is also possible to include numerous controls to reduce the problem of the omitted variables bias such as education level, dependency rates, state ownership, general subsidies and whether the area is urban or rural. The results indicate that SEZs in Poland have been successful in a number of their objectives such as private business creation. The positive effect of the policy however mainly comes through foreign direct investment (FDI), whereas the effects on e.g. investment and employment are small or insignificant. In other areas, such as securing higher income levels and locking firms into the sustainability agenda through the adoption of green technologies and reduced air pollution, the authors find only a small positively moderating effect of the policy on what are traditionally economically disadvantaged areas in Poland that used to be dependent on the socialist production model. Hence, despite high levels of FDI, the zones policy has not managed to overcome the legacy of backwardness or lagging regions. The main policy implication of the paper is that SEZs may be successful in stimulating activity in the short run but the policy must be seen as one of necessary temporality and can therefore not stand alone. Before launching SEZs, policymakers must have plans in place for follow up measures to ensure the longer term competitiveness and sustainability implications of such an initiative. There is a need to understand the connection between the specific incentive schemes used (in this particular case tax incentives were used) and the kinds of firms and activities they attract, including the behavioral models that those incentives promote.
Authored by: Camilla Jensen
Published in 2014
This study is part of the project entitled “Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Countries” for the European Commission1. The study was written by Luca Barbone (CASE) Mikhail Bonch- Osmolovskiy (CASE) and Matthias Luecke (CASE, Kiel). It is based on the six country studies for the Eastern Partnership countries commissioned under this project and prepared by Mihran Galstyan and Gagik Makaryan (Armenia), Azer Allahveranov and Emin Huseynov (Azerbaijan), Aleksander Chubrik and Aliaksei Kazlou (Belarus), Lasha Labadze and Mirjan Tukhashvili (Georgia), Vasile Cantarji and Georgeta Mincu (Moldova), Tom Coupé and Hanna Vakhitova (Ukraine). The authors would like to thank for their comments and suggestions Kathryn Anderson, Martin Kahanec, Costanza Biavaschi, Lucia Kurekova, Monica Bucurenciu, Borbala Szegeli, Giovanni Cremonini and Ummuhan Bardak, as well as the dbaretailed review provided by IOM. The views in this study are those of the authors’ only, and should not be interpreted as representing the official position of the European Commission and its institutions.
Written by Luca Barbone, Mikhail Bonch-Osmolovsky and Matthias Luecke. Published in September 2013.
PDF available on our website at: http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/58264
The objective of this paper has been to experiment diverse economic indicators in order to help equip Ukrainian policymakers with a relatively simple tool, which could deliver warning signals about the possibility of upcoming economic problems and thereby assist the Government in designing policy instruments which would help prevent or soften a slowdown or recession.
Authored by: Vladimir Dubrovskiy, Inna Golodniuk, Janusz Szyrmer
This paper presents forecasts for the Financial Stress Index (FSI) and the Economic Sensitivity Index (ESI) for the period 2015-2015 for six countries in the region, namely the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. It is a continuation of the endeavor to construct synthetic indices measuring financial stress and economic sensitivity for twelve Central and East European countries using the Principal Component Analysis. In order to obtain forecasts of the FSI, we estimated Vector Autoregression (VAR) models on monthly data for the period 2001-2012 separately for all the countries. Using quarterly historical values of ESI and FSI, we estimated Dynamic Panel Data Model for the complete sample of countries. Parameters of the model were later used for forecasting the ESI. Obtained results suggest that the FSI will start to rise in 2014 in the Czech Republic, Lithuania, and Estonia. For Latvia and Hungary, we observed a conversion in the trend, i.e. at the beginning of 2015, when the index should start to fall. According to our forecasts, the ESI will be rising in the next two years, except for Hungary, where we predict a continuous decrease in economic sensitivity.
Authored by: Maciej Krzak and Grzegorz Poniatowski
Published in 2014
The aim of this study is to estimate the impact of the removal of NTBs in trade between the EU and its selected CIS partners: Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan (CIS5). The report includes a discussion of methodologies of measurement of non-tariff barriers and the impact of their removal, including a review of previous studies focusing on CEE and CIS regions. Further, we employ a computable general equilibrium model encompassing the following three pillars of trade facilitation: legislative and regulatory approximation, reform of customs rules and procedures and liberalization of the access of foreign providers of services. We conclude that a reduction of NTBs and improved access to the EU market would bring significant benefits to the CIS5 countries in terms of welfare gains, GDP growth, increases in real wages and expansion of international trade. The possible welfare implications of deep integration with the EU range from 5.8% of GDP in Ukraine to sizeable expected gains in Armenia (3.1%), Russia (2.8%), Azerbaijan (1.8%) and Georgia (1.7%).
Authored by: Maryla Maliszewska, Irina Orlova, Svitlana Taran
Published in 2009
This paper analyzes the direct and indirect income effects of international labor migration and remittances in selected CIS countries. The analysis is based on computable general equilibrium (CGE) models for Moldova, Ukraine, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia. All net emigration countries would experience a sharp contraction of private consumption in the absence of remittances. In Russia, the main effect of immigration has been to hold down the real wage (as potential capital stock adjustments in response to immigration are not reflected in the authors comparative-static modeling framework). The paper concludes that because of the important contribution of migration and remittances to stabilizing and sustaining incomes in many CIS countries, enhanced opportunities for legal labor migration should figure prominently in any deepening of bilateral relations between CIS countries and the European Union under the European Neighborhood Policy.
Authored by: Aziz Atamanov, Toman Omar Mahmoud, Roman Mogilevsky, Kseniya Tereshchenko, Natalia Tourdyeva
Published in 2009
Ainura Uzagalieva
Vitaly Vavryschuk
The aim of this paper is to examine the issues of gender disparities in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) region, with a special focus given to countries covered by the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP). The analysis is conducted in several dimensions: labour participation, economic opportunity, political empowerment, educational attainment, and health and demography. Beside the comparative study of "in region differentials" done for the CIS, I analyze the trends in gender disparities in comparison to EU-12 and EU-15, using data for the period 1985-2005.
The study confirms the existence of slightly different paths in which gender disparities have evolved over time. While in EU-15 women participation in labour market, their remuneration, and position in public life have significantly increased, in majority of the CIS countries a gradual decrease of female labour activity was reported. In addition female representation in politics and public life has shrunken after and during the transition period. On the other hand in such fields as secondary and tertiary education attainment, health, and demography male population in the CIS region has became more disadvantaged, which also leads to enlarging gender gap.
Authored by: Magdalena Rokicka
Published in 2008
Demographic change (driven by the second demographic transition) led to an uncontrolled increase in scale of various social expenditure in the OECD area, especially in continental Europe. Costs of social transfers created fiscal pressure leading to the necessity of tax increases all over Europe, including the New Member States. Employment consequences of emerging higher tax wedge has become the topic of large body of research. However, surprisingly little evidence is known on distribution of that problem across workers. Is the effect of high tax wedge equally spread or certain groups of workers suffer more than others? More specifically, are low productivity workers exposed more to the problems caused by high tax wedge?
Authored by: Marek Gora, Artur Radziwill, Agnieszka Sowa, Mateusz Walewski
Published in 2006
The objective of the PICK-ME (Policy Incentives for Creation of Knowledge – Methods and Evidence) research project is to provide theoretical and empirical perspectives on innovation which give a greater role to the demand-side aspect of innovation. The main question is how can policy make enterprises more willing to innovate? This task is fulfilled by identifying what we consider the central or most salient aspect of a demand-side innovation- driven economy, which is the small and entrepreneurial yet fast growing and innovative firm. We use the term “Gazelle” to signify this type of firm throughout the paper. The main concern of policy-makers should therefore be how to support Gazelle type of firms through various policies. The effectiveness of different policy instruments are considered. For example, venture capitalism is in the paper identified as an important modern institution that renders exactly the type of coordination necessary to bring about an innovation system more orientated towards the demand side. This is because experienced entrepreneurs with superior skills in terms of judging the marketability of new innovations step in as financiers. Other factor market bottlenecks on the skills side must be targeted through education policies that fosters centers of excellence. R&D incentives are also considered as a separate instrument but more a question for future research since there is no evidence available on R&D incentives as a Gazelle type of policy. Spatial policies to foster more innovation have been popular in the past. But we conclude that whereas the literature often finds that new knowledge is developed in communities of physically proximate firms, there is no overshadowing evidence showing that spatial policies in particular had any impact on generating more of the Gazelle type of firms.
Authored by: Itzhak Goldberg, Camilla Jensen
Published in 2014
The aim of this work is to present an in depth understanding of the conceptual framework of active ageing policies, which have been created and implemented in Poland. The discussion of active ageing in employment in Poland started relatively late. The first discussions on the unfavourable situation of elderly employment emerged only in the second half of the 1990s, when the debate on the pension system reform started. While only a few ageing policies were developed at the national level during that time, several interesting initiatives were undertaken at a regional level and in the third sector. They were mostly focused on productive ageing and the problems associated with the economic activation of people over 50. The intensive implementation of the active ageing policies in Poland started in 2012, during the European Year of Active Ageing. At present, there is an intense discussion on policies addressed to the elderly, which concentrate not only on the activation of the labour market, but also on healthy, active and socially inclusive ageing, education andcivil engagement.
This paper concludes that despite intense work being done by public authorities, the concept still needs a deeper implementation - especially at the regional level. Furthermore, close observation and evaluation of the activation programmes is still missing and the identification and implementation of good practices which are already being developed in other European countries is under-used.
Authored by: Izabela Styczynska
Similar to CASE Network Studies and Analyses 397 - Restructuring and Social Safety Nets in Russia and Ukraine - Social Security Influence on Labor Mobility: Possible Opportunities and Challenges (20)
The report examines the social and economic drivers and impact of circular migration between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. The core question the authors sought to address was how managing circular migration could, in the long term, help to optimise labour resources in both the country of origin and the destination countries. In the pages that follow, the authors of the report present the current and forecasted labour market and demographic situation in their respective countries as well as the dynamics and characteristics of short-term labour migration flows between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic, concentrating on the period since 2010. They also outline and discuss related policy responses and evaluate prospects for cooperation on circular migration.
Podręcznik został opracowany w celu przekazania trenerom i nauczycielom podstawowej wiedzy, która może być przydatna w prowadzeniu szkoleń promujących pracę rejestrowaną. Prezentuje on z jednej strony korzyści z pracy rejestrowanej, z drugiej – potencjalne koszty związane z pracą nierejestrowaną. W pierwszej kolejności informacje te przedstawiono w odniesieniu do pracowników najemnych (rozdział 2), podkreślając w sposób szczególny to, że negatywne konsekwencje pracy nierejestrowanej są ponoszone przez całe życie. Ze względu na specyficzną sytuację cudzoziemców pracujących w Polsce konsekwencje ponoszone przez tę grupę opisano oddzielnie (rozdział 3). Ponadto zaprezentowano skutki dotyczące pracodawców z szarej strefy z wyodrębnieniem tych, którzy zatrudniają cudzoziemców (rozdział 4). Uzupełnieniem przedstawionych informacji jest opis działań podejmowanych przez państwo w celu ograniczenia zjawiska pracy nierejestrowanej w Polsce (rozdział 5) oraz prowadzonych w Wielkiej Brytanii, czyli w kraju będącym liderem w walce z szarą strefą (rozdział 6).
European countries face a challenge related to the economic and social consequences of their societies’ aging. Specifically, pension systems must adjust to the coming changes, maintaining both financial stability, connected with equalizing inflows from premiums and spending on pensions, and simultaneously the sufficiency of benefits, protecting retirees against poverty and smoothing consumption over their lives, i.e. ensuring the ability to pay for consumption needs at each stage of life, regardless of income from labor.
One of the key instruments applied toward these goals is the retirement age. Formally it is a legally established boundary: once people have crossed it – on average – they significantly lose their ability to perform work (the so-called old-age risk). But since the 1970s, in many developed countries the retirement age has become an instrument of social and labor-market policy. Specifically, in the 1970s and ‘80s, an early retirement age was perceived as a solution allowing a reduction in the supply of labor, particularly among people with relatively low competencies who were approaching retirement age, which is called the lump of labor fallacy. It was often believed that people taking early retirement freed up jobs for the young. But a range of economic evidence shows that the number of jobs is not fixed, and those who retire don’t in fact free up jobs. On the contrary, because of higher spending by pension systems, labor costs rise, which limits the supply of jobs. In general, a good situation on the labor market supports employment of both the youngest and the oldest labor force participants. Additionally, a lower retirement age for women was maintained, which resulted to a high degree from cultural conditions and norms that are typical for traditional societies.
Until now, the banking sector has been one of the strong points of Poland’s economy. In contrast to banks in the U.S. and leading Western European economies, lenders in Poland came through the 2008 global financial crisis without a scratch, without needing state financial support. But in recent years the industry’s problems have been growing, creating a threat to economic growth and gains in living standards.
For an economy’s productivity to increase, funds can’t go to all companies evenly, and definitely shouldn’t go to those that are most lacking in funds, but to those that will use them most efficiently. This is true of total external financing, and thus funding both from the banking sector and from parabanks, the capital market and funds from public institutions. In Poland, in light of the relatively modest scale of the capital market, banks play a clearly dominant role in external financing of companies. This is why the author of this text focuses on the bank credit allocation efficiency.
The author points out that in the very near future, conditions will emerge in Poland which – as the experience of other countries shows – create a risk of reduced efficiency of credit allocation to business. Additionally, in Poland today, bank lending to companies is to a high degree being replaced by funds from state aid, which reduces the efficiency of allocation of external funds to companies (both loans and subsidies), as allocation of government subsidies is not usually based on efficiency. This decline in external financing allocation efficiency may slow, halt or even reverse the process, that has been uninterrupted for 28 years, of Poland’s convergence, i.e. the narrowing of the gap in living standards between Poland and the West.
The economic characteristics of the COVID-19 crisis differ from those of previous crises. It is a combination of demand- and supply-side constraints which led to the formation of a monetary overhang that will be unfrozen once the pandemic ends. Monetary policy must take this effect into consideration, along with other pro-inflationary factors, in the post-pandemic era. It must also think in advance about how to avoid a policy trap coming from fiscal dominance.
This paper is organized as follows: Chapter 2 deals with the economic characteristics of the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the effectiveness of the monetary policy response measures undertaken. In Chapter 3, we analyse the monetary policy decisions of the ECB (and other major CBs for comparison) and their effectiveness in achieving the declared policy goals in the short term. Chapter 4 is devoted to an analysis of the policy challenges which may be faced by the ECB and other major CBs once the pandemic emergency comes to its end. Chapter 5 contains a summary and the conclusions of our analysis.
Purpose: This paper tries to identify the wage gap between informal and formal workers and tests for the two-tier structure of the informal labour market in Poland.
Design/methodology/approach: I employ the propensity score matching (PSM) technique and use data from the Polish Labour Force Survey (LFS) for the period 2009–2017 to estimate the wage gap between informal and formal workers, both at the means and along the wage distribution. I use two definitions of informal employment: a) employment without a written agreement and b) employment while officially registered as unemployed at a labour office. In order to reduce the bias resulting from the non-random selection of
individuals into informal employment, I use a rich set of control variables representing several individual characteristics.
Findings: After controlling for observed heterogeneity, I find that on average informal workers earn less than formal workers, both in terms of monthly earnings and hourly wage. This result is not sensitive to the definition of informal employment used and is
stable over the analysed time period (2009–2017). However, the wage penalty to informal employment is substantially higher for individuals at the bottom of the wage distribution, which supports the hypothesis of the two-tier structure of the informal labour market in Poland.
Originality/value: The main contribution of this study is that it identifies the two-tier structure of the informal labour market in Poland: informal workers in the first quartile of the wage distribution and those above the first quartile appear to be in two partially different segments of the labour market.
The rule of law, by securing civil and economic rights, directly contributes to social prosperity and is one of our societies’ greatest achievements. In the European Union (EU), the rule of law is enshrined in the Treaties of its founding and is recognised not just as a necessary condition of a liberal democratic society, but also as an important requirement for a stable, effective, and sustainable market economy. In fact, it was the stability and equality of opportunity provided by the rule of law that enabled the post-war Wirtschaftswunder in Germany and the post-Communist resuscitation of the economy in Poland.
But the rule of law is a living concept that is constantly evolving – both in its formal, de jure dimension, embodied in legislation, and its de facto dimension, or its reception by society. In Poland, in particular, according to the EU, the rule of law has been heavily challenged by government since 2015 and has evolved amid continued pressure exerted on the institutions which execute laws. More recently, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic transformed the perception of the rule of law and its boundaries throughout the EU and beyond (Marzocchi, 2020).
This Study contains Value Added Tax (VAT) Gap estimates for 2018, fast estimates using a simplified methodology for 2019, the year immediately preceding the analysis, and includes revised estimates for 2014-2017. It also includes the updated and extended results of the econometric analysis of VAT Gap determinants initiated and initially reported in the 2018 Report (Poniatowski et al., 2018). As a novelty, the econometric analysis to forecast potential impacts of the coronavirus crisis and resulting recession on the evolution of the VAT Gap in 2020 is reported.
In 2018, most European Union (EU) Member States (MS) saw a slight decrease in the pace of gross domestic product (GDP) growth, but the economic conditions for increasing tax compliance remained favourable. We estimate that the VAT total tax liability (VTTL) in 2018 increased by 3.6 percent whereas VAT revenue increased by 4.2 percent, leading to a decline in the VAT Gap in both relative and nominal terms. In relative terms, the EU-wide Gap dropped to 11 percent and EUR 140 billion. Fast estimates show that the VAT Gap will likely continue to decline in 2019.
Of the EU-28, the smallest Gaps were observed in Sweden (0.7 percent), Croatia (3.5 percent), and Finland (3.6 percent), the largest – in Romania (33.8 percent), Greece (30.1 percent), and Lithuania (25.9 percent). Overall, half of the EU-28 MS recorded a Gap above 9.2 percent. In nominal terms, the largest Gaps were recorded in Italy (EUR 35.4 billion), the United Kingdom (EUR 23.5 billion), and Germany (EUR 22 billion).
The euro is the second most important global currency after the US dollar. However, its international role has not increased since its inception in 1999. The private sector prefers using the US dollar rather than the euro because the financial market for US dollar-denominated assets is larger and deeper; network externalities and inertia also play a role. Increasing the attractiveness of the euro outside the euro area requires, among others, a proactive role for the European Central Bank and completing the Banking Union and Capital Market Union.
Forecasting during a strong shock is burdened with exceptionally high uncertainty. This gives rise to the temptation to formulate alarmist forecasts. Experiences from earlier pandemics, particularly those from the 20th century, for which we have the most data, don’t provide a basis for this. The mildest of them weakened growth by less than 1 percentage point, and the worst, the Spanish Flu, by 6 percentage points. Still, even the Spanish Flu never caused losses on the order of 20% of GDP – not even where it turned out to be a humanitarian disaster, costing the lives of 3-5% of the population. History suggests that if pandemics lead to such deep losses at all, it’s only in particular quarters and not over a whole year, as economic activity rebounds. The strength of that rebound is largely determined by economic policy. The purpose of this work is to describe possible scenarios for a rebound in Polish economic growth after the epidemic.
A separate issue, no less important, is what world will emerge from the current crisis. In the face of the 2008 financial crisis, White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel said: “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. And what I mean by that is an opportunity to do things that you think you could not do before.” Such changes can make the economy and society function better than before the crisis. Unfortunately, the opportunities created by the global financial crisis were squandered. Today’s task is more difficult; the scale of various problems has expanded even more. Without deep structural and institutional changes, the world will be facing enduring social and economic problems, accompanied by long-term stagnation.
"Many brilliant prophecies have appeared for the future of the EU and our entire planet. I believe that Europe, in its own style, will draw pragmatic conclusions from the crisis, not revolutionary ones; conclusions that will allow us to continue enjoying a Europe without borders. Brussels will demonstrate its usefulness; it will react ably and flexibly. First of all, contrary to the deceitful statements of members of the Polish government, the EU warned of the threats already in 2021. Secondly, already in mid-March EU assistance programs were ready, i.e. earlier than the PiS government’s “shield” program. The conclusion from the crisis will be a strengthening of all the preventive mechanisms that allow us to recognize threats and react in time of need. Research programs will be more strongly directed toward diagnosing and treating infectious diseases. Europe will gain greater self-sufficiency in the area of medical equipment and drugs, and the EU – greater competencies in the area of the health service, thus far entrusted to the member states. The 2021-27 budget must be reconstructed, to supplement the priority of the Green Deal with economic stimulus programs. In this way structural funds, which have the greatest multiplier effect for investment and the labor market, may return to favor. So once again: an addition, as a conclusion from the crisis, and not a reinvention of the EU," writes Dr. Janusz Lewandowski the author of the 162nd mBank-CASE seminar Proceeding.
Dla wielu rodaków europejskość Polski jest oczywista, trudno jest im nawet wyobrazić sobie, jak kształtowałyby się losy naszego kraju bez uczestnictwa w integracji europejskiej. Szczególnie młode pokolenie traktuje osiągnięty przez nas dzięki uczestnictwie w Unii ogromny postęp cywilizacyjny jako coś danego i naturalnego. Jednak świadomość tego, jaki był nasz punkt wyjścia, jaką przeszliśmy drogę i jak przyczyniły się do tego unijne działania oraz jakie wynikały z tego korzyści powinna nam stale towarzyszyć. Bez tej świadomości, starannego weryfikowania faktów i docenienia naszych osiągnięć grozi nam uleganie niesprawdzonym argumentom przeciwników integracji europejskiej i popełnienie nieodwracalnych błędów. Dla tych, którzy chcą poznać te fakty, przygotowany został raport "Nasza Europa. 15 lat Polski w Unii Europejskiej". Podjęto w nim ocenę 15 lat członkostwa Polski z perspektywy doświadczeń procesu integracji, z jego barierami i sukcesami, a także wyzwaniami przyszłości.
Raport jest wynikiem pracy zbiorowej licznych ekspertów z różnych dziedzin, od wielu lat analizujących wielowymiarowe efekty działania instytucji UE oraz współpracy z krajami członkowskimi na podstawie europejskich wartości i mechanizmów. Autorzy podsumowują korzyści członkostwa Polski w Unii Europejskiej na podstawie faktów, nie stroniąc jednakże od własnych ocen i refleksji.
This report is the result of the joint work of a number of experts from various fields who have been - for many years – analysing the multidimensional effects of EU institutions and cooperation with Member States pursuant to European values and mechanisms. The authors summarise the benefits of Poland’s membership in the EU based on facts; however, they do not hide their own views and reflections. They also demonstrate the barriers and challenges to further European integration.
This report was prepared by CASE, one of the oldest independent think tanks in Central and Eastern Europe, utilising its nearly 30 years of experience in providing objective analyses and recommendations with respect to socioeconomic topics. It is both an expression of concern about Poland’s future in the EU, as well as the authors’ contribution to the debate on further European integration.
Poland’s new Employee Capital Plans (PPK) scheme, which is mandatory for employers, started to be implemented in July 2019. The article looks at the systemic solutions applied in the programme from the perspective of the concept of the simultaneous reconstruction of the retirement pension system. The aim is to present arguments for and against the project from the point of view of various actors, and to assess the chances of success for the new system. The article offers a detailed study of legal solutions, an analysis of the literature on the subject, and reports of institutions that supervise pension funds. The results of this analysis point to the lack of cohesion between certain solutions of the 1999 pension reform and expose a lack of consistency in how the reform was carried out, which led to the eventual removal of the capital part of the pension system. The study shows that additional saving for old age is advisable in the country’s current demographic situation and necessary for both economic and social reasons. However, the systemic solutions offered by the government appear to be chiefly designated to serve short-term state interests and do not create sufficient incentives for pension plan participants to join the programme.
Belarus was among the few post-communist countries to resign from comprehensive market reforms and attempt to improve the efficiency of the economy through administrative means, leaving market mechanisms only an auxiliary role. Since its inception, the ‘Belarusian economic model’ has undergone several revisions of a de-statisation and de-regulation kind, but still the Belarusian economy remains dominated by the state. This paper analyses the characteristic features of the Belarusian economic system – especially those related to the public sector – as well as its evolution over time during the period following its independence. The paper concludes that during the post-Soviet period, the Belarusian economy evolved from a quasi-Soviet system based on state property, state planning, support to inefficient enterprises and the massive redistribution of funds to a more flexible hybrid model where the public sector still remains the core of the economy. The case of Belarus shows that presently there is no appropriate theoretical perspective which, in an unmodified form, could be applied to study this type of economic system. Therefore, a new perspective based on an already existing but updated approach or a multidisciplinary approach that incorporates the duality of the Belarusian economy is required.
Belarusian economy has been stagnating in 2011-2015 after 15 years of a high annual average growth rate. In 2015, after four years of stagnation, the Belarusian economy slid into a recession, its first since 1996, and experienced both cyclical and structural recessions. Since 2015, the Belarusian government and the National Bank of Belarus have been giving economic reforms a good chance thanks to gradual but consistent actions aimed at maintaining macroeconomic stability and economic liberalization. It seems that the economic authorities have sustained more transformation efforts during 2015-2018 than in the previous 24 years since 1991.
As the relative welfare level in Belarus is currently 64% compared to the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries average, Belarus needs to build stronger fundaments of sustainable growth by continuing and accelerating the implementation of institutional transformation, primarily by fostering elimination of existing administrative mechanisms of inefficient resource allocation. Based on the experience of the CEE countries’ economic transformation, we highlight five lessons for the purpose of the economic reforms that Belarus still faces today: keeping macroeconomic stability, restructuring and improving the governance of state-owned enterprises, developing the financial market, increasing taxation efficiency, and deepening fiscal decentralization.
Inflation in advanced economies is low by historical standards but there is no threat of deflation. Slower economic growth is caused by supply-side constraints rather than low inflation. Below-the-target inflation does not damage the reputation of central banks. Thus, central banks should not try to bring inflation back to the targeted level of 2%. Rather, they should revise the inflation target downwards and publicly explain the rationale for such a move. Risks to the independence of central banks come from their additional mandates (beyond price stability) and populist politics.
Estonia has Europe’s most transparent tax system (while Poland is second-to-last, in 35th place), and is also known for its pioneering approach to taxation of legal persons’ income. Since 2000, payers of Estonian corporate tax don’t pay tax on their profits as long as they don’t realize them. In principle, this approach should make access to capital easier, spark investment by companies and contribute to faster economic growth. Are these and other positive effects really noticeable in Estonia? Have other countries followed in this country’s footsteps? Would deferment of income tax be possible and beneficial for Poland? How would this affect revenue from tax on corporate profits? Would investors come to see Poland as a tax haven? Does the Estonian system limit tax avoidance and evasion, or actually the opposite? Is such a system fair? Are intermediate solutions possible, which would combine the strengths or limit the weaknesses of the classical and Estonian models of profit tax? These questions are discussed in the mBank-CASE seminar Proceeding no. 163, written by Dmitri Jegorov, deputy general secretary of the Estonian Finance Ministry, who directs the country’s tax and customs policy, Dr. Anna Leszczyłowska of the Poznań University of Economics and Business and Aleksander Łożykowski of the Warsaw School of Economics.
The trade war between the U.S. and China began in March 2018. The American side raised import duties on aluminum and steel from China, which were later extended to other countries, including Canada, Mexico and the EU member states. This drew a negative reaction from those countries and bilateral negotiations with the U.S. In June 2018 America, referring to Section 301 of its 1974 Trade Act, raised tariffs to 25% on 818 groups of products imported from China, arguing that the tariff increase was a response to years of theft of American intellectual property and dishonest trade practices, which has caused the U.S. trade deficit.
Will this trade war mean the collapse of the multilateral trading system and a transition to bilateral relationships? What are the possibilities for increasing tariffs in light of World Trade Organization rules? Can the conflict be resolved using the WTO dispute-resolution mechanism? What are the consequences of the trade war for American consumers and producers, and for suppliers from other countries? How high will tariffs climb as a result of a global trade war? How far can trade volumes and GDP fall if the worst-case scenario comes to pass? Professor Jan J. Michałek and Dr. Przemysław Woźniak give answers to these questions in the mBank-CASE Seminar Proceeding No. 161.
This Report has been prepared for the European Commission, DG TAXUD under contract TAXUD/2017/DE/329, “Study and Reports on the VAT Gap in the EU-28 Member States” and serves as a follow-up to the six reports published between 2013 and 2018.
This Study contains new estimates of the Value Added Tax (VAT) Gap for 2017, as well as updated estimates for 2013-2016. As a novelty in this series of reports, so called “fast VAT Gap estimates” are also presented the year immediately preceding the analysis, namely for 2018. In addition, the study reports the results of the econometric analysis of VAT Gap determinants initiated and initially reported in the 2018 Report (Poniatowski et al., 2018). It also scrutinises the Policy Gap in 2017 as well as the contribution that reduced rates and exemptions made to the theoretical VAT revenue losses.
More from CASE Center for Social and Economic Research (20)
Introduction to Indian Financial System ()Avanish Goel
The financial system of a country is an important tool for economic development of the country, as it helps in creation of wealth by linking savings with investments.
It facilitates the flow of funds form the households (savers) to business firms (investors) to aid in wealth creation and development of both the parties
Latino Buying Power - May 2024 Presentation for Latino CaucusDanay Escanaverino
Unlock the potential of Latino Buying Power with this in-depth SlideShare presentation. Explore how the Latino consumer market is transforming the American economy, driven by their significant buying power, entrepreneurial contributions, and growing influence across various sectors.
**Key Sections Covered:**
1. **Economic Impact:** Understand the profound economic impact of Latino consumers on the U.S. economy. Discover how their increasing purchasing power is fueling growth in key industries and contributing to national economic prosperity.
2. **Buying Power:** Dive into detailed analyses of Latino buying power, including its growth trends, key drivers, and projections for the future. Learn how this influential group’s spending habits are shaping market dynamics and creating opportunities for businesses.
3. **Entrepreneurial Contributions:** Explore the entrepreneurial spirit within the Latino community. Examine how Latino-owned businesses are thriving and contributing to job creation, innovation, and economic diversification.
4. **Workforce Statistics:** Gain insights into the role of Latino workers in the American labor market. Review statistics on employment rates, occupational distribution, and the economic contributions of Latino professionals across various industries.
5. **Media Consumption:** Understand the media consumption habits of Latino audiences. Discover their preferences for digital platforms, television, radio, and social media. Learn how these consumption patterns are influencing advertising strategies and media content.
6. **Education:** Examine the educational achievements and challenges within the Latino community. Review statistics on enrollment, graduation rates, and fields of study. Understand the implications of education on economic mobility and workforce readiness.
7. **Home Ownership:** Explore trends in Latino home ownership. Understand the factors driving home buying decisions, the challenges faced by Latino homeowners, and the impact of home ownership on community stability and economic growth.
This SlideShare provides valuable insights for marketers, business owners, policymakers, and anyone interested in the economic influence of the Latino community. By understanding the various facets of Latino buying power, you can effectively engage with this dynamic and growing market segment.
Equip yourself with the knowledge to leverage Latino buying power, tap into their entrepreneurial spirit, and connect with their unique cultural and consumer preferences. Drive your business success by embracing the economic potential of Latino consumers.
**Keywords:** Latino buying power, economic impact, entrepreneurial contributions, workforce statistics, media consumption, education, home ownership, Latino market, Hispanic buying power, Latino purchasing power.
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
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how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
Resume
• Real GDP growth slowed down due to problems with access to electricity caused by the destruction of manoeuvrable electricity generation by Russian drones and missiles.
• Exports and imports continued growing due to better logistics through the Ukrainian sea corridor and road. Polish farmers and drivers stopped blocking borders at the end of April.
• In April, both the Tax and Customs Services over-executed the revenue plan. Moreover, the NBU transferred twice the planned profit to the budget.
• The European side approved the Ukraine Plan, which the government adopted to determine indicators for the Ukraine Facility. That approval will allow Ukraine to receive a EUR 1.9 bn loan from the EU in May. At the same time, the EU provided Ukraine with a EUR 1.5 bn loan in April, as the government fulfilled five indicators under the Ukraine Plan.
• The USA has finally approved an aid package for Ukraine, which includes USD 7.8 bn of budget support; however, the conditions and timing of the assistance are still unknown.
• As in March, annual consumer inflation amounted to 3.2% yoy in April.
• At the April monetary policy meeting, the NBU again reduced the key policy rate from 14.5% to 13.5% per annum.
• Over the past four weeks, the hryvnia exchange rate has stabilized in the UAH 39-40 per USD range.
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangeDOT TECH
Yes. Pi network coins can be exchanged but not on bitmart exchange. Because pi network is still in the enclosed mainnet. The only way pioneers are able to trade pi coins is by reselling the pi coins to pi verified merchants.
A verified merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell it to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.DOT TECH
If you are interested in selling your pi coins, i have a verified pi merchant, who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
Because the core team has announced that pi network will not be doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges like huobi, bitmart and hotbit can get pi is by buying from miners.
Now a merchant stands in between these exchanges and the miners. As a link to make transactions smooth. Because right now in the enclosed mainnet you can't sell pi coins your self. You need the help of a merchant,
i will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant below. 👇 I and my friends has traded more than 3000pi coins with him successfully.
@Pi_vendor_247
what is the future of Pi Network currency.DOT TECH
The future of the Pi cryptocurrency is uncertain, and its success will depend on several factors. Pi is a relatively new cryptocurrency that aims to be user-friendly and accessible to a wide audience. Here are a few key considerations for its future:
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram if u want to sell PI COINS.
1. Mainnet Launch: As of my last knowledge update in January 2022, Pi was still in the testnet phase. Its success will depend on a successful transition to a mainnet, where actual transactions can take place.
2. User Adoption: Pi's success will be closely tied to user adoption. The more users who join the network and actively participate, the stronger the ecosystem can become.
3. Utility and Use Cases: For a cryptocurrency to thrive, it must offer utility and practical use cases. The Pi team has talked about various applications, including peer-to-peer transactions, smart contracts, and more. The development and implementation of these features will be essential.
4. Regulatory Environment: The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies is evolving globally. How Pi navigates and complies with regulations in various jurisdictions will significantly impact its future.
5. Technology Development: The Pi network must continue to develop and improve its technology, security, and scalability to compete with established cryptocurrencies.
6. Community Engagement: The Pi community plays a critical role in its future. Engaged users can help build trust and grow the network.
7. Monetization and Sustainability: The Pi team's monetization strategy, such as fees, partnerships, or other revenue sources, will affect its long-term sustainability.
It's essential to approach Pi or any new cryptocurrency with caution and conduct due diligence. Cryptocurrency investments involve risks, and potential rewards can be uncertain. The success and future of Pi will depend on the collective efforts of its team, community, and the broader cryptocurrency market dynamics. It's advisable to stay updated on Pi's development and follow any updates from the official Pi Network website or announcements from the team.
how can I sell my pi coins for cash in a pi APPDOT TECH
You can't sell your pi coins in the pi network app. because it is not listed yet on any exchange.
The only way you can sell is by trading your pi coins with an investor (a person looking forward to hold massive amounts of pi coins before mainnet launch) .
You don't need to meet the investor directly all the trades are done with a pi vendor/merchant (a person that buys the pi coins from miners and resell it to investors)
I Will leave The telegram contact of my personal pi vendor, if you are finding a legitimate one.
@Pi_vendor_247
#pi network
#pi coins
#money
CASE Network Studies and Analyses 397 - Restructuring and Social Safety Nets in Russia and Ukraine - Social Security Influence on Labor Mobility: Possible Opportunities and Challenges
3. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No.397- Restructuring and Social Safety Nets in ...
The CASE Network is a group of economic and social research centers in Poland, Kyrgyzstan,
Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, and Belarus. Organizations in the network regularly conduct joint
research and advisory projects. The research covers a wide spectrum of economic and social
issues, including economic effects of the European integration process, economic relations
between the EU and CIS, monetary policy and euro-accession, innovation and competitiveness,
and labour markets and social policy. The network aims to increase the range and quality of
economic research and information available to policy-makers and civil society, and takes an
active role in on-going debates on how to meet the economic challenges facing the EU, post-transition
2
countries and the global economy.
The CASE Network consists of:
• CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research, Warsaw, est. 1991,
www.case-research.eu
• CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research – Kyrgyzstan, est.
1998, www.case.elcat.kg
• Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE Ukraine, est. 1999,
www.case-ukraine.kiev.ua
• CASE –Transcaucasus Center for Social and Economic Research, est.
2000, www.case-transcaucasus.org.ge
• Foundation for Social and Economic Research CASE Moldova, est.
2003, www.case.com.md
• CASE Belarus - Center for Social and Economic Research Belarus, est.
2007.
4. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No.397- Restructuring and Social Safety Nets in ...
3
Contents
Abstract........................................................................................................................................ 5
1. Introduction.......................................................................................................................... 6
2. Developments and current labor mobility......................................................................... 7
2.1 Economic and SSN development in CIS ................................................................... 7
2.2 Russia......................................................................................................................... 12
2.3 Ukraine ....................................................................................................................... 14
2.4 Important common and distinct features................................................................ 18
3. Effects of social safety nets on labor mobility in Russia and Ukraine......................... 20
3.1 Social benefits individually perceived as an alternative to labor income............ 20
3.1.1 Effect on mobility between employment, unemployment, and economic
activity.................. .............................................................................................................. 22
3.1.2 Effect on mobility between different sectors of economy............................. 25
3.1.3 Effect on geographical mobility of labor force ............................................... 27
3.2 Available data ............................................................................................................ 28
3.2.1 Russia................................................................................................................. 29
3.2.2 Ukraine................................................................................................................ 29
3.3 Do social safety nets reduce mobility? ................................................................... 31
3.3.1 Data Analysis, Case of Russia ......................................................................... 32
3.3.2 Data Analysis, Case of Ukraine ........................................................................ 33
4. Results of the model ......................................................................................................... 35
5. Policy lessons and conclusions ...................................................................................... 38
Tables and figures..................................................................................................................... 41
References................................................................................................................................. 48
5. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No.397- Restructuring and Social Safety Nets in ...
Marek Góra is a professor of economics at the Warsaw School of Economics (SGH), where he
got his Ph.D. and habilitation. He has been lecturing and conducting research at SGH since
1984. Currently, Marek Góra teaches macroeconomics, pension economics, labour economics,
and economic policy for graduate and Ph.D. students. Previously, he also taught econometrics
and economic forecasting. During his academic carrier, Marek Góra completed research at the
London School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam and Ifo Institute for Economic
Research in Munich. Marek Góra is a Research Fellow at the William Davidson Institute,
University of Michigan and a Research Fellow at Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), Bonn.
Marek Góra is an author of various articles in the fields of pension economics, labour
economics, unemployment, labour market policies. Marek Góra is the co-author of the design of
the pension reform called Security through Diversity and the leader of a team of experts who
worked on the reform.
Oleksandr Rohozynsky, Ph.D. in Policy Analysis (2007, Dissertation on Social Safety Net
Reform in Ukraine), holds masters degrees in Applied Mathematics, Economics, Policy Analysis,
and Business Administration. He is an economist and researcher with over nine year
experience working in Ukraine and the US, including: leading and managing projects for
Ukrainian think-tank; working with various international organizations, including World Bank,
Soros International Economic Advisory Group, HIID/CASE; and providing support and advise to
decision-makers in Ministry of Economy, Ministry of Finance, and Prime-Minister of Ukraine.
Oleksandr Rohozynsky has been working with CASE Ukraine since 1999.
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6. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No.397- Restructuring and Social Safety Nets in ...
5
Abstract
This paper focuses on the labor force mobility in a broad sense, and analyses how changes in
social security policy and the structure of the social safety net (SSN) in Ukraine and Russia
affected different aspects of labor force mobility.
Expanding SSN in transition countries was generally meant to protect the most vulnerable
groups in the population (the elderly, the poor, the unemployed) from the negative effects of
transition. But fast and effective transition from the centrally managed economy requires a fast
reallocation of resources, including the labor force, between the “traditional” and “modern”
sectors of the economy, which also may imply a geographical reallocation of labor. Therefore, a
stronger SSN may slow down the process of economic transformation
Our theoretical models and data analysis provide arguments that stronger social safety nets
reduce the sectoral mobility of labour and mobility between employment and unemployment.
Analyses also provide some statistical support to the arguments about the effect of a stronger
SSN on geographical (regional) mobility and its effect on unemployment.
7. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No.397- Restructuring and Social Safety Nets in ...
6
1. Introduction
The labor market situation and the design of social safety nets are strongly related. The strength
of this relationship is growing due to population ageing and additionally due to the restructuring
of economies. The latter factor is particularly worth analyzing in transition economies since they
face restructuring processes that are caused by a combination of features universal for all
countries, including developed economies, and unique issues caused by the transition shock. In
transition economies, the large upheaval caused by these restructuring processes typically leads
to using social safety nets as restructuring “buffers” that reduce current problems by pushing
them into the future. The costs of such policies are high and growing over time.
Working on labor market and safety net issues in transition economies, researchers can develop
knowledge that will be universally useful and that also can be applied to highly developed
economies. Russia and Ukraine have recently taken substantial efforts to reform their social
security systems. These efforts are to a large extent in line with theoretical approaches applied
elsewhere. The reforms in both countries are at the initial stage and only limited research has
taken place thus far which addresses the significant issues in connection with the reform of the
social safety nets in the two countries.
This discussion paper looks deeply at the issue of labor force mobility in a broad sense, and
analyses how changes in social security policy and the structure of the social safety net (SSN)
affects different aspects of labor force mobility. The paper provides a theoretical framework for
the SSN effect on labor mobility, and presents statistical evidence from Russia and Ukraine that
illustrates this effect in the countries. This research compares findings for these two countries in
transition with the dynamics observed in the “new” and the “old” countries of the European
Union.
This paper is structured as follows: the next chapter provides an overview of the labor market
and social safety net developments in Russian and Ukraine over the last decade, as well as
discusses common features of these countries. The third chapter establishes theoretical models
for different aspects of labor force mobility, discusses the availability of data on Russia and
Ukraine to test these models, and provides a statistical analysis of the data. The next chapter
discusses results of the statistical analysis. The final chapter discusses policy conclusions that
8. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No.397- Restructuring and Social Safety Nets in ...
can be derived from comparison of the effect of the SSN on labor mobility in these two countries,
and extends them to all countries in transition.
2. Developments and current labor mobility
Labor markets in countries of transition face unique economic circumstances. The economic
downturn at the beginning of transition decreased personal incomes and employment. In order
to find employment and earn income, people of these countries had to move actively across
industries, types of enterprises, and geographic locations. The downturn also affected social
safety nets (SSN) by reducing the funding and effectiveness of the SSNs. Appropriate social
services became available only to some segments of the population and only in selected
geographical locations, which further increased labor mobility. Finally, economic recovery of the
countries in transition in recent years allowed them to begin reforming SSNs. It led to further
distortions in taxation and the quality of social protection across categories of the population and
geographic locations. These disproportions further stimulated labor mobility in the countries of
transition.
This chapter provides a brief description of economic changes over the last ten years. It
discusses the effect of economic changes on social safety nets in Russia and Ukraine. Finally,
the chapter describes various dimensions of labor force mobility in both countries, and provides
some insight on common features of this process.
2.1 Economic and SSN development in CIS
By the end of the 1980s, countries of the “Soviet Block” (Central and Eastern European (CEE)
countries and the Soviet Union) had social safety nets (SSN thereafter) with extensive coverage
and costs. The SSN of the former Soviet Block countries provided free healthcare and education
(including higher education) to everybody, and the costs of other services, such as childcare,
vacations, etc. were greatly reduced by price equalization mechanisms. In his recent book,
Milanovic (20) showed that social transfers constituted about 19% of personal income in a
typical socialist economy, while they accounted for only 14% in a typical market economy. This
difference may be even larger because some benefits provided in-kind or through discounts by
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9. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No.397- Restructuring and Social Safety Nets in ...
state enterprises to their workers cannot be captured by such a simple comparison. Also,
pensions were generous in relation to other income and the retirement age was around 55 for
females and 60 for males; in addition, retirees received a package of discounted or free
services, such as housing and phone services. Due to full employment, unemployment benefits
were small or non-existent in these countries. The cost of the SSN was huge, but was largely
carried by state-owned enterprises and not by state budgets.
At the end of the 1980s and beginning of the 1990s, the republics of the Soviet Union began
transitioning their economies from a planned system to the market economy system. They
experienced an economic slowdown that lasted over six years and resulted in a cumulative
decline in GDP of 60-80% (see 5 and 32). Due to this slowdown, the average tax revenues in
the CIS countries fell from 28% of GDP in 1992 to 22% of GDP in 1998, and to as low as 15%
of GDP in some countries (see 34). Most of the countries constantly ran significant budget
deficits in order to finance government obligations.
The labor market transformation in current CIS countries took a different path from the
transformation in countries of Eastern Europe (current new EU states). Despite massive drops in
GDP, unemployment in CIS countries remained at relatively low levels. During the period 1990-
1994, the average decline of GDP in the CIS countries was around -11%, while decline in
employment was only -1% (compared to the -3% and -4% decline respectively in CEE countries)
(see 7 and 25). During the periods 1994-1998 and 1998-2004, the figures were (-0.2%, -0.3%)
and (+4.5%,+0.3%) respectively. The adjustment took the form of lower real wages, which
dramatically dropped in the CIS region during the transition, and which still remain lower than in
the pre-transition period. A more detailed discussion of the labor market transformation during
this period can be found in Working Paper 1 of this package (see 7).
Because of the reluctance to decrease the extensive labor force during transitions in the CIS
countries, unemployment was not a major precondition for falling into poverty in these countries.
The low-income employees were the first to experience massive delays in the payment of
wages, pensions and other benefits in these countries (see 34). The working poor accounted for
about half of the poor population in Russia, where approximately 87% of the poor live in families
where one or several members are working (see 26). In Ukraine, about 78% of poor families had
at least one working member in 1999 (see 17).
The social welfare system in the CIS countries did not change significantly from the universal
social welfare system that they inherited from the USSR. The system remains very poorly
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10. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No.397- Restructuring and Social Safety Nets in ...
oriented towards supporting the poor. Large parts of the social safety nets in most of the CIS
countries are education and healthcare systems, since traditionally these countries declare the
right to free education and healthcare in their constitutions The countries spend large portions of
their state budgets on these items, however, with time the financing for these parts of the social
safety net have become lower then that which would be required to provide the service with
adequate quality. The largest social welfare item outside the state budget in FSU countries is
pensions, on which 7-15% of GDP is spent. Following the example of the CEE countries, the
CIS countries started pension reform, introducing a multi-tier (mandatory and voluntary funds)
pension system. However, they are just at the beginning of the process and the new systems
are not expected to have an impact for 15-20 years.
The social assistance programs remain aimed at providing services or supplementary payments
to certain groups of the population (elderly, children, and the disabled) and the task of reducing
poverty is of least importance. Reacting to the dramatic change in the structure of expenditures,
and in order to retain the Soviet-era system of special rates, the governments of the CIS
countries introduced a large number of subsidies or discounts, often provided in-kind. For
example, until 2005 Russia maintained 156 types of subsidies and social payments that were
directed to 236 different population groups (see 4). Almost 70% of the Russian population were
recipients of welfare benefits (see 4), and a similar situation existed in Ukraine (see 6). The
number of beneficiaries for these assistance programs became enormously high, while the size
of the benefits gradually decreased due to lack of financing. Despite the significant expenditures
on subsidies and discounts, these programs were very severely underfinanced. It was estimated
by the researchers at the Center of Strategic Research (Russia, see 4) that the financing
needed for the subsidies established by federal law in Russia exceeds 15% of GDP in 1999.
The huge difference between the required expenditures and available revenues was partially
resolved by a decrease in the real amounts of the payment due to high inflation. Until the
beginning of the 21st century, the payments were not automatically indexed with inflation, but
rather revised on an irregular bases. As a result, by 2003-2004, the welfare payment became
symbolic in most of the countries. For example, the social benefits in Russia amounted to about
6% of the average wage, in Ukraine and Azerbaijan to about 3-4% of the average wage (see
31). However, the continued economic growth in Russia and Ukraine stabilized the budgets and
has made reforms of the social safety net one of the top priorities in recent years. The major
direction of the reforms is an increase in the amount of benefits provided by the SSN, which may
make the social benefits comparable to the lowest wages in the countries in the near future.
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11. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No.397- Restructuring and Social Safety Nets in ...
Such an increase in the benefits will increase their influence on the employment choice of
workers and their labor mobility.
Differences in labor market conditions, prosperity of citizens, and the influence of demographic
factors already significantly contribute to labor migration in CIS countries. Countries with higher
unemployment rates, relatively low wages, and high fertility rates resulting in a large labor supply
are among those with net migration loss. Some countries, such as Tajikistan, still exercise wage
growth controls with consumer price liberalisation, which, in conjunction with high unemployment
rates, leads to very high emigration. The countries of Central Asia, as well as Azerbaijan and
Armenia, are among the countries with the highest rates of migration (see 14). The most
frequently cited reason for working abroad given by the respondents of surveys conducted in the
countries with high negative migration is poor economic conditions in one’s county leading to an
inability to find a job and support oneself.
Russia and Ukraine are among the most popular destinations for migrant labor among CIS
countries. The attractive features for migrants in these two countries include a lift of wage
controls and labor relations, lack of manpower due to demographic conditions, higher standards
of living, and a large shadow economy, reaching 45-51% of the total country GDP (see 13 and
29).
A large share of migrants usually takes up jobs in sectors with high labor demand such as
construction, metallurgy, sale of fruits and vegetables, agriculture, and catering. A relatively high
number of migrants take jobs in the underground economy since employment opportunities in
the legal sector are limited, earnings are higher in the illegal sector, and working illegally allows
them to avoid contact with corrupt state bodies.
The CIS countries began to adopt western standards in controlling legal migration and issuing
working permits to the foreign workers who entered countries legally. For example, in Ukraine,
the employer is required to demonstrate that there are no qualified national laborers available
before hiring a foreign worker. The number of the permits is capped and they are issued for a
shorter period of time when compared to those issued by Western European countries and the
US; also, a renewal of the permit is required every year in Ukraine and in Russia (see 12).
Although this legislation was widely ignored in the past, enforcement of this legislation has
increased in recent years.
Both Russia and Ukraine do not require short-term visit entry visas from citizens of some CIS
countries. This visa-free regime created opportunities for illegal migration and transit of illegal
10
12. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No.397- Restructuring and Social Safety Nets in ...
migrants (see 12), leading to migration for illegal employment within the countries. Migrants from
CIS countries enter Russia and Ukraine legally, declaring their intention of a short-term trip,
however, once permitted on the territory of the countries, some of these migrants either seek
opportunities for illegal transit further to the countries of Western Europe or seek opportunities
for work without registration. To combat these illegal migrant activities, both countries have been
increasing their control of immigrants. Russia requires registration of all foreigners with Foreign
Migration Services within three days of their entry to Russia. Ukraine requires registration of
foreigners legally entering the country at the border only, and limits the time they are allowed to
stay.
While migrants fill job vacancies available in the receiving countries, they also contribute to the
expansion of the shadow economy and to changes in the structure of local labor markets and
firms, as well as contributing to the expansion of some illegal activities related to the abuse of
immigrants.
Labor migration also has a large unmeasured impact on the countries of origin. Apparently,
migrant laborers constitute the most active and mobile part of the labor force, often with the most
competitive set of skills. They reduce the pool of productive labor or potential entrepreneurs in
the local economy. By its nature, labor migration in the CIS counties is unofficial. As a result of
such migration, the SSNs experience a higher budget imbalance and increased utilization. A
laborer often leaves behind less economically active members of the family (elderly, children,
etc.). These members actively rely on social protection benefits since, in most cases, the laborer
is officially unemployed in the home country.
The countries of origin of migrants benefit from labor remittances sent home. For example,
according to the statistics of the National Bank of Ukraine (see 22 and 23), the amount of
transfers from workers abroad almost tripled from 2002-2007, reaching about 94 million dollars
a quarter in 2007. A study by the World Bank noticed that overall transfers from abroad
accounted for up to 5% of GDP by 2003 (see 38). However, these benefits may not offset the
losses of the local social protection systems and/or budget deficits resulting from the fact that the
migrant workers do not pay taxes in their home countries, but their families use public goods
(healthcare, education and other public services).
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13. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No.397- Restructuring and Social Safety Nets in ...
2.2 Russia
Similarly to other former USSR republics, in Russia, the first five years after the collapse of the
Soviet Union were characterized by deep economic recession. On average, real GDP growth
from 1992-1996 was -8.7%, with inflation reaching 2500% at the beginning of the period
(see). However, researchers agree that the favourable world markets for Russia’s natural
resources (oil, natural gas, metals, and timber) helped the country to recover by 1997. After the
short financial crisis in 1998, the country began to recover and experienced many years of
growth, averaging 6.4% annually. Inflation was reduced to approximately10% annually. High oil
prices and a relatively cheap ruble were important drivers of the economic rebound in Russia.
Since the beginning of the 21st century, real personal incomes increased over 12% a year on
average and poverty has declined.
Since breakup of Soviet Union, Russia experienced a significant decline in population from
approximately 150 million while it was part of the USSR to 142.9 million today, as a result of both
natural growth dynamics and migration.. Although life expectancy has been steadily growing
since 1996, the declining birth rate is one of the main factors contributing to the decrease in the
Russian population in this century. Long-term demographic forecasts show that the population
dynamics of Russia will result in a sharp decline in the proportion of the economically active
population to the non-active population in the future. Currently, the relation of pensioners to
workers is 1 to 1.4. , and the proportion of the elderly among the Russian population is
increasing rapidly, implying huge financial problems for the pension system in the future, when
this ratio approaches a 1 to 1 proportion. The development of the pension system in Russia is
discussed in more detail in Working Paper 4 of this package (see 9).
The labor market development of Russia also followed an unusual pattern, during the recession
after –independence, as discussed earlier. Despite a large decrease in real GDP, official
unemployment remained low in the first half of the 1990s because workers were employed part-time
(through informal agreements with employers), or were on long holidays, for example. (see
Lehmann, 17) The SSN in the country (low benefits that were also difficult to collect, and
significant requirements for enterprises to fire workers) was not suited for the market economy
and was considered, among other reasons, to be the primary contributor to the development of
this pattern. At the end of 1990s, however, the unemployment rate stabilized at about 13%, and
has been slowly declining since that time (see).
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Poverty was one of the main results of the crisis at the beginning of the 1990s. It is estimated
that over 33% of the population in Russia lived in poverty from 1992-1996 (see). However,
following the economic recovery in 2000, the poverty rates began to decline rapidly, and the
current rate is 20% of the population living below the poverty line. According to a World Bank
study (see 39), in 2002, 30.4% of the rural population was living in poverty in 2002, and 15.7%
of the urban population was poor. Low levels of education and a large number of dependents
(children) are the factors increasing ones probability of being poor. The poverty rates also vary
dramatically between the regions, with some regions having over 50% of their population living
in poverty in 2002.
The Russian government began to re-shape the SSN in order to respond to the challenge of
increased poverty. A new regulatory framework was developed and implemented in the first half
of the 1990s which changed the employment legislation in 1991, introduced new disability
insurance and child benefits in 1995, and introduced mandatory pension insurance in 1996 and
non-state pension funds in 1998. The pension reform continued with a complete overhaul of the
pension system in 2001.
At the beginning of the 21st century, 70% of the Russian population were entitled to different
social benefits. The current benefit payment mechanisms still have a limited ability to target the
distribution of resources to those who need them most. Russia spent about 8% of GDP on
retirement, disability, and numerous occupational privileges, and accumulated some debts in
social payment. Researchers estimated that fulfilling all legal obligations of SSN federal law in
Russia would require over 15% of GDP in 1999. Further forecasts indicate that without a reform
those expenditures will have to increase to about 25% of GDP in 2050 (see Nies and Walcher,
24). In order to improve monitoring and targeting of these social benefits, Russia monetized the
in-kind benefits in 2005. However, the monetization of the benefits triggered a strong negative
social reaction and the reform of social benefits, in order to reduce their cost, did not begin.
The high level of social benefits put additional pressure on the budget resulting in a constant
deficit of over 5% of GDP in the 1990s. Although large income from international trade allowed
the government to increase budget revenues and run a budget surplus, since the beginning of
the 21st century, tax collection has remained relatively poor. In order to stimulate tax compliance
and increase tax incomes in the long-run, in 2001 Russia reduced the level of personal income
tax from 30% (top marginal rate) to a flat rate of 13% for residents, and to a rate of 30% for non-residents
on income from Russian sources. It also introduced a Unified Social Tax (UST) of
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35.6%, which reformed collection and distribution of financial resources allocated for social
payments (see 24). The UST consolidated several payroll taxes, simplified the tax system, and
reduced the tax administration burden. About 78% of the funds collected from the Unified Social
Tax went to the Pension Fund, 11% to the Social Insurance Fund, and about 10% percent to the
Mandatory Health Insurance Fund.
Similarly to other FSU countries, the pension system is the largest part of the SSN in Russia.
There are about 38.5 million pensioners in the country. The Soviet-style centrally managed
pension fund was constantly in crisis from the beginning of the 1990s. Due to the problems with
funding, the pension fund had to cut or even suspend pension payments, resulting in
accumulation of pension arrears. The situation resulted in an overhaul of the pension system in
2004, and the introduction of the new pension system continues. The reformed pension system
establishes a clear link between contribution and benefits, which is expected to increase tax
compliance by about 2-5% (see 30). The introduction of the new pension system is expected to
end in 2013.
The after-crises recovery and the economic and social security transformation were not equally
successful in different parts of Russia. shows deviations from the national average of selected
economic indicators in various regions, which equals to 100 in every year. We can see that
gross regional product per capita is 5 times higher than the national average in some regions,
while it is about 8 times lower than the national average in other regions. This difference results
in even higher disparities in the level of unemployment in regions. At the same time, employment
should be one of the main methods used to stay out of poverty, since the variation in the real
wage between regions is significantly smaller, reaching only a 30% difference between the
regions with the highest and lowest real wage.
The development of the economic and demographic situation in Russia, and the development of
the social safety net is discussed in more detail in Discussion Paper 1 of this work package
(see 7).
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2.3 Ukraine
The country started the process of transition to a market economy in 1992, which immediately
triggered the necessity for social safety net reform. Ukraine followed the pattern common for CIS
countries. After its independence, Ukraine suffered an economic downturn that continued for 6
years. In 1998, real GDP felt to 41% of GDP in 1990 (see). GDP began growing in 1999, and by
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2004 accelerated to a pace of 12% growth per year. GDP growth slowed to 2.6% in 2005
primarily due to political instability and new social and fiscal policies that will be discussed later
in this chapter.
Ukraine has experienced massive population decline since independence. Due to an increased
death rate, decreased birth rate, and large emigration, the population decreased from 52 million
in 1991 to 46.9 million in 2005 (see DP1 for more details, 7). Age demographics also changed
significantly. Although the proportion of people of working age (considered to be from 15 to 70
years old) did not change, the proportion of younger people decreased. Also, the population
became more economically active during the recession because most pensioners able to work
had to look for some job to supplement their pension income. At the same time, the proportion of
pensioners in the total population grew from 25% in 1991 to 30% of the total population in 2005.
Although the proportion of employed decreased from 47% in 1995 to 42% in 2005, similar to
other CIS countries, the economic depression did not result in high unemployment in Ukraine.
The highest unemployment since independence was around 12% in 1999-2000, and the
unemployment rate decreased after that, partially due to a decrease in the proportion of the
economically active population from 52% in 1998 to 47% in 2005 (see 7).
However, the rapid economic decline resulted in increased poverty. It was established that
during the Soviet period only about 6% of the population of Ukraine lived below the national
poverty level of 75 rubles, and this was primarily the rural population in depressed western
regions. Poverty reached a maximum during the 1992-1996 recession period, when about 30%
of the population lived below the national poverty level (see 38). Poverty decreased with the first
signs of economic growth, but remained stable at 27% of the population below the national
poverty level from 1999 till 2004. A comparison using international standards reveals that
poverty was in fact declining: a World Bank study in 1999 found that 29.4% of the population
lived on less than $4.30 a day (see 35), and the latest 2005 study shows that poverty was only
22.2% in 2003 (see 38).
Although unemployment is not high in Ukraine, underemployment is considered to be significant.
World Bank researchers found that underemployment increased from 8.4% of the population in
1999 to 9.2% in 2002. In this self-reporting survey, the underemployed are usually easily
identified as people who reported to be unemployed and reported some wage income below
minimum wage at the same time.
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In order to survive, the poor population needed some social support delivered via the
government. The social welfare system built over the years since independence currently
provides about 21% of the income for poor families.
Prior to 1992, when the Soviet Union ceased to exist, the Republic of Ukraine had the same
state-run social safety net common to all Soviet republics. The transition forced the government
to take responsibility for the safety net expenditures that were previously a part of enterprise
finances. During the initial years of transformation, the Soviet system was converted into a
generous social protection system that consisted of social privileges, Chernobyl benefits,
housing and utility allowances, and family benefits. More than 20 social privileges to different
population groups existed until the beginning of this century. These were introduced by different
laws and presidential decrees, and simulated privileges that existed during the Soviet Union.
The Law on “State Assistance to Families with Children”, adopted in 1993, introduced about 11
types of different family allowances, most of which are distributed on a categorical bases, and
only a limited number of the allowances are provided on the income-based means test basis.
Chernobyl benefits were introduced in 1991 by the Law “On the Status and Social Protection of
Citizens Who Suffered from the Chernobyl Catastrophe”, and are provided on a categorical
basis to the people that resided close to the site of the disaster. Most benefits were provided in-kind.
The government is supposed to provide reimbursement for the free services to the
producers of such services, e.g. telecommunication or transportation companies. Despite
attempts to fulfill its obligations, the government constantly failed to finance all obligations,
increasing debts to service providers and to beneficiaries.
In order to shield families from the impact of the rapidly increasing energy and housing prices, in
1995 the government introduced the “Housing and Municipal Services Allowance Program”. This
program increased government responsibilities and pressure on the budget. The allowances
were financed from local budgets, and regions with weak revenue bases rapidly accumulated
arrears.
Since the abovementioned programs were unable to eradicate poverty because they targeted
such a wide portion of the population, in 2000, the Verkhovna Rada adopted the Law on
“Targeted Social Assistance to Low Income Families”. This law provided families living below the
subsistence level with compensating benefits up to 75% of the minimal subsistence level. The
beneficiaries were restricted by asset test to people who did not possess a second apartment, a
new car and did not make any substantial purchases over the previous 12 months. This was the
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first law directly aimed at reducing poverty, and attempted to target the benefits to the people in
need.
In order to finance new social welfare programs, the government introduced a 38% payroll tax to
finance the Pension and Social Insurance Fund, a 12% payroll tax to finance the Chernobyl
fund, and a 2% tax that went to the unemployment fund. Although only a small portion of these
taxes were classed as employee taxes, as opposed to taxes on employers, since employers
were responsible for collecting and reporting these taxes, the employer taxes on the wage fund
(payroll taxes) effectively amounted to 52%.
Despite the high taxes, the government did not manage to collect revenues sufficient to finance
its obligations and ran large budget deficits until 1998 (see). At the same time, the high taxes
contributed to a reduction of the tax base and the escalation of shadow economic activity (see
19). Due to high inflation, the nominal wages of workers constantly appeared at the highest level
of the progressive personal income tax scale and were taxed at a rate of 40%. In addition,
employers had to pay 52% in payroll taxes, which made the cost of labor 2.5 times higher when
compared to paying cash to a worker off the books. Taking into account that capital gains or
interest on shares were taxed at about 15%, one of the cheaper schemes was to employ all
workers at minimum wage, pay income tax at 0% plus some minimum payroll taxes, and pay the
workers cash from the pocket of the owner, who in turn received the cash as interest or through
some other scheme. It was estimated that the shadow economy in 1996 was the same size as
the official economy (see 13) and shadow (off the books) employment was about 40% of total
employment the same year (see 27).
The period 2004 – 2006 was characterized by increases in social benefits to pensioners and the
poor, which resulted from political battles during that time. First, increases in social benefits were
implemented in the second half of 2004. Minimum benefits of most welfare programs increased
3 to 12 times, average benefits increased 25-70%, and further increases were implemented in
2006 (see 21). As a result, social welfare expenditures (including pensions) increased from
11.9% of GDP in 2003 to 17.4% in 2005. The government also increased the minimum wage by
40% (about a 30% increase in real terms) in 2005, which resulted in an increase of the wages
paid to employees in the public sector and increased budget expenditures on healthcare,
education, and government employees.
The political situation also did not allow the government to increase tax rates and even
demanded a decrease in some taxes. For example, the personal income tax law provided for a
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13% flat tax rate for the period of two years that was to have been replaced by a permanent
15% flat tax rate in 2006. However, due to political pressures, the increase was postponed.
Another example is simplified taxation of small businesses. The previous president issued a
decree establishing a “simplified taxation for small businesses” in 2001. Businesses with
turnover under $100,000 a year and up to 10 employees may pay a flat tax (only 200 UAH, or
$40 a month in 2004-2005) instead of all taxes on their businesses, including payroll taxes. As a
result, most employees of small businesses still do not make sizable contributions to pension or
other social insurance funds. They are protected by some social insurances, but their
contributions to the pension fund will not allow for providing them anything but a minimal pension
when they retire.
Similarly to Russia, the after-crises recovery, economic and social security transformation was
not equally successful in different parts of Ukraine demonstrates deviations from the national
average of selected economic indicators in regions, which equals to 100 in every year. The
disparity between regions of Ukraine is less pronounced then in Russia. We can see that gross
regional product per capita is 3 times higher than national average in some regions, while about
2 times lower than the national average in other regions. At the same time, the difference in
unemployment rates between the regions with the highest and lowest employment is only 3
times, with similar differences in the level of the real wage.
The development of the economic and demographic situation in Ukraine and the development of
the social safety net are discussed in more detail in Discussion Paper 1 of this work package
(see 7)
2.4 Important common and distinct features
There are several features in both countries that are important for the discussion of the effect of
the SSN on labor force mobility in post-Soviet countries. Among the many common features, we
should mention the following:
1. Both countries had similar economic structures and Social Safety Nets at the beginning
of the transformation period. They experienced similar recessions and hyperinflation at
the beginning of the 1990s, and effectively overcame the results of the recession by the
beginning of the 21st century.
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2. Both countries experienced problems funding their legal obligations associated with the
SSN in the 1990s, and accumulated arrears in SSN payments by the mid-1990s that
were successfully eliminated later.
3. Both countries started a deep transformation of the social safety net at the end of the
1990s, aiming to improve targeting, reduce the number of privileges, and reduce the tax
burden on enterprises.
4. Both countries have large disparities in the economic and labor market conditions of the
regions, and large labor migration within the countries and outside.
5. Both countries had large shadow economies and shadow employment in the 1990s, and
relatively small official unemployment rates.
The following distinct features of economic and SSN development should allow for the
observation of the effects of different SSN reforms on labor markets and labor force mobility in
these countries:
1. Due to the favorable market conditions and successful trade of natural resources, Russia
experienced lower pressure on the budget and was able to provide larger and more
stable funding to the social safety net.
2. Russia is leading 2-3 years in the reforms of the social safety net compared to Ukraine.
Budget conditions and better-developed securities markets allowed Russia to implement
more radical changes of the social safety net and reduce taxes further than Ukraine.
3. Ukraine has smaller disparities in economic and labor market conditions between regions
compared to Russia. Some regions of Russia are suffering from war (primarily the
Chechnya region, which is excluded from consideration in this study), or strong economic
specialization, such as some regions in Northern Siberia.
4. Russia is experiencing large immigration of legal and illegal workers from post-Soviet
countries, while Ukraine is primarily experiencing emigration of the labor force to Western
Europe and Russia.
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3. Effects of social safety nets on labor mobility in Russia and
20
Ukraine
Individuals often view social benefits as an alternative to labor income. The possibility to
substitute part or all of one’s labor income with income that does not require labor may increase
labor force mobility in several dimensions. This could occur first through migration of the
population from employment to unemployment, and to/from the active labor force. Second,
migration of the labor force between sectors of the economy that provide different social
protection and wage packages, including unofficial employment may occur. Finally, the social
safety net may result in geographical labor mobility, when the labor force is moving to the
regions with better social protection and wage packages.
This chapter provides simple economic models to describe the three dimensions of labor force
mobility discussed above. Then we discuss the possibilities to test implications of these models
on the data available for Russia and Ukraine. Where possible, we provide estimates for the labor
mobility effects based on the microeconomic data for both countries. Finally, we discuss
commonalities of the SSN effect on labor mobility in the two countries.
3.1 Social benefits individually perceived as an alternative to
labor income
In order to continue the analysis of the effect of social safety nets on labor force mobility, we
introduce a simple economic model. Let us assume that we have an economy with N individuals,
and:
(1) Every individual in the country can consume either goods c or leisure l.
(2) Every individual has the same concave and twice differentiable utility function U(c,l) that
this individual tries to maximize.
(3) Every individual has an income i, which consists of government transfers b and labor
income, and is equal to the time the person works (assumed to be total time in the day T
minus the time that is spent on leisure) multiplied by his/her wage w: i=b+w*(T-l). The
amount of government transfers is a positive number, and can be equal to zero for some
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people. Sources of the benefits can be government savings, borrowings, taxes on
enterprises, or taxes on individuals, as discussed bellow.1
(4) Each individual maximizes his/her utility given this budget constraint. Assuming there is
no savings and the entire income is consumed, the constraint is c=i. The general solution
of this problem is to choose the level of work at the point where the marginal rate of
substitution is equal to the wage rate. Assuming, for simplicity, that the utility is linear in
consumption, the utility-maximizing amount of work is given by: ∂U(c,l)/ ∂l = -w.
(5) The individuals in the country have different abilities. For simplicity, we can assume that
λ percent of population have high abilities able to earn wages aH and (1-λ) have low
abilities and wage aL.
(6) The individuals with low ability can not generate labor income sufficient to bring their
consumption to some minimal social standard of consumption (minimal subsistence
level) M. Therefore, the government has to step in and supplement the income of the
low-ability individuals with the level Z (which may be equal or different from M, depending
on the generosity of the system), developing a social safety net.
(7) Finally, we assume that the government is interested in minimizing expenditures on the
social safety net given the necessity to bring the income of all individuals in the country to
a level at, or above, Z. We also assume that an individual does not consider this
government goal when making his/her decision. In this case, the total cost of the SSN at
the separating equilibrium is determined by the government’s ability to monitor an
individual’s abilities and earnings.
Most economic studies (see Coate and Besley 2, for example) agree that even if the government
is able to perfectly observe the level of wage earnings, but is not able to observe abilities, the
high-ability individuals may modify their work behavior in order to receive the benefit Z- aL*(T-l(
aL)). Since the high-ability people are more productive, it will take them less time to work for the
wage-income generated by low-ability people, (only aL*(T-l(aL))/ aH hours). The high ability
people will alter their income if their utility working less with total income at level Z will be higher
than their utility from higher consumption and higher work U(Z,[( aH- 1)T+ l(aL)]/ aH) ≥ U(aH*(T-l(
aH)), l(aH)).
1 Expected value of a net transfer per individual is zero unless government increases debt per individual.
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Most countries finance their social security programs by payroll taxes or other taxes on wage
income. Such a tax as the source of funding for the SSN can be introduced into the model.
Under the assumptions of the model, it would make sense to tax the income of high-ability
individuals only, because the social system will have to return to the low-ability individuals all the
taxes that they paid. It also does not matter if the tax is a payroll tax (tax on an enterprise) or
income tax (tax on a person), because in any case, in a competitive labor market, the tax will
result in decreased wage income of the workers.
If the government imposes the tax of τ on the income of high ability people, the wage that they
receive will become (1- τ) aH. Given the concave utility function, the high ability people will work
less and their wage income will become (1- τ) aH*(T-l((1- τ) aH)). According to the model, in this
case the total expenditures of the welfare system will increase.
If the welfare system is fully financed by the taxes on wages it faces additional constraints, in
terms of our model. The total expenditures of the system can not exceed the total amount of
taxes collected E=N(1-λ) τ aH (T-l((1- τ) aH)), and the tax rate must be limited so that the
condition U(Z,R)<U(aH (T-l((1- τ) aH), T-l((1- τ) aH) holds, otherwise, the high-ability people will
exit the labor market. The highest benefit that can be offered to poor people in this case can not
exceed (1-λ) τ aH (T-l((1- τ) aH))/ λ, and this benefit will not alter the behavior of high-ability
people only if a “workfare” system is used in the country.
This simple model can be used to describe three types of labor force mobility induced by the
social safety nets through changes in two major parameters: the wage/labor/benefit packages
available to a worker, and the level of taxes required to finance the SSN.
3.1.1 Effect on mobility between employment, unemployment, and economic
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activity
The social safety net may affect labor mobility between employment and unemployment through
two channels. The first channel is through the behavioral response to the increased social
benefits for an individual, which may result in the decision to become unemployed or to prolong
their unemployment. The second channel is through the response to the increased taxes
needed to finance the SSN.
The microeconomic model above implies that the larger the benefit b available to an individual,
the less he/she will work since he/she can afford larger consumption of both goods and leisure.
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This effect also leads to the change in behavior for some people, who prefer to work less (or
completely cease working) in order to qualify for the benefit. These effects are widely observed
and well documented in the individual level data from developing countries, including Russia and
Ukraine.
A larger effect on labor supply and employment is observed when the government imposes or
increases taxes on wages in order to finance the social benefits. The microeconomic model
implies that a decrease in wages as the result of a tax will have two effects: it will decrease the
income of the person, and stimulate him/her to work more in order to achieve their pre-tax
consumption level; and it will decrease the “price of leisure”, causing the person to consume
more leisure in order to increase the level of utility. If the income effect dominates the
substitution effect, the workers will work more after the increase in the tax rate. However, the
imperial estimates suggest that the substitution effect likely dominates the income effect, and the
elasticity of labor supply to an increase in taxes is negative. A report of the Congressional
Budget Office of the US in 1996 (see 3) reviewed a number of studies and concluded that labor
supply elasticity to a change in wages ranges from 0 to 0.3 for the whole population.
An increase in taxes on wages does not necessarily result in a change of the net-of-tax wage or
is not fully translated into such a change. The effect of taxes on wages is better observed at the
macroeconomic level. For the macroeconomic analysis, individual labor preferences are
aggregated into the labor supply function. The enterprise’s demand for labor is also aggregated
into the labor demand function. The conventional market economy model suggests that
employment and wages are set by the intersection of these two curves. The tax on workers’
wages shifts the labor supply curve (LS) up (to LS(T)) , and the market equilibrium shifts from
point A to point B. The new wage is larger than at the previous equilibrium, meaning that some
portion of the tax shifted to the enterprise. If the tax is imposed on an enterprise, it shifts the
labor demand (LD) curve down (to LD(T)), resulting in a lower equilibrium wage, and shifting
some portion of the tax to the workers. In this simple framework, the shift of the labor demand
and labor supply curves, as a result of the same tax, produce equivalent results on labor supply
(see 8).
The possibility to shift taxes to employees (in the form of reduced post-tax wages) depends on
the elasticity of labor supply. A less elastic labor supply allows for wages to decrease without a
significant loss in hours worked and a perfectly inelastic supply of labor allows shifting payroll
taxes to employees. Kugler in his 2003 paper (see 15), and then Góra et al. in 2006 (see 8),
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argued that blue-collar (low-income) workers have a higher elasticity of wage than white-collar
(high-income) workers, and show empirical evidence that a decrease of payroll taxes caused a
larger employment gain for low-paid workers than for high-paid workers. The high elasticity of
labor supply of low-paid workers in the country where this effect was studied was attributed by
the authors to the high and binding minimum wages.
By design, the social security contributions (payroll taxes) are social insurance for the workers,
and can be viewed as savings. If workers believe in the system, then they have to treat their
payroll taxes as part of their income (possibly with some discount), and be indifferent between
packages of higher wages and no-taxes, and lower wages with payroll taxes. In this case, any
change in payroll taxes could be passed through to employees without change in employment
(see 10). However, there is little evidence of this inter-temporal substitution effect (see 11 and
8).
Instead, a number of studies find a significant effect of a change in payroll taxes on employment.
Kugler estimated that a 10% increase of payroll taxes resulted in a 4-5% reduction in
employment in Columbia (see 15), Gora et alt. (see 8) found that the same increase will result in
a 5% reduction of employment in Poland, and Gwartney et alt. (see 11) suggest that a 10%
increase in after-tax wages will result in a 3% increase in employment in US.
There are also a number of studies that document the effect of an increased social safety net, in
particular unemployment benefits, on duration of unemployment spells and economic activity of
the population (see 16, for example).
The main feature of the research reviewed for this study is that it studies the labor force mobility
resulting from an increase in SSN benefits. The uniqueness of the transitioning economies such
as Russia and Ukraine is in the deep economic downturn and resulting decrease of social
benefits in these countries. This allows us to observe the opposite effect of the SSN on labor
force mobility. As the SSN deteriorated in these countries, the SSN income of large population
groups living on SSN benefits was reduced below poverty level. According to the model outlined
above, these people would choose to increase their labor activity and start working in order to
increase their utility. Therefore, we may expect to observe increasing mobility back to the labor
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force for such population groups as pensioners, partially disabled, or people who care for
disabled or small children2.
3.1.2 Effect on mobility between different sectors of economy
We can further extend our theoretical model and introduce two sectors of the economy in the
country by incorporating the Lewis model of economic growth in a country as the basic model for
economic growth. The Lewis model assumes that an economy consists of two sectors. The first
sector is the “traditional” economy with low productivity and an excessive supply of labor. The
second sector is the “modern” economy with high productivity of labor. The model assumes that
the “modern” sector has higher economic productivity, and is able to grow by investing
generated profits. The model assumes that there is a significant difference in wages between
the “traditional” and “modern” economies. The labor force has strong incentives to work in the
“modern” sector. Economic growth in the model is achieved by transition of the excess labor
from the “traditional” to a “modern” economy, which allows further expansion of the “modern”
economy.
The traditional Lewis model can be depicted by diagrams presented in. Lewis argued that
because of constrained resources (the original model assumed that the “traditional” economy is
agriculture, and land is a limited resource) there is excess labor in the “traditional” economy with
zero marginal productivity. This labor force was the resource that could be transferred to the
“modern” economy and with other resources (equipment) produce new products. Since the
marginal productivity of labor in the “modern” sector is not zero, there is always stimulus to re-invest
profits received in the “modern” sector to increase the other resources (equipment).
Therefore, the “modern” sector has a tendency to grow. In order to attract labor, the “modern”
economy must pay wages slightly higher than per-capita income in the “traditional” economy.
The migration of labor from the “traditional” to the “modern” sector of the economy will continue
until the shortage of labor in the “traditional” economy will not drive wages in this sector to the
level of wages in the “modern” economy. This traditional Lewis model of economic growth was
later extended on economies that do not necessarily consist of only agriculture and industrial
sectors.
2 SSN provided income for people in these categories to stay out of work for extended periods of time.
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Let us assume that because of the transition, the population of the country may be divided into
three categories: low-ability people, who receive wage of aL; the high-ability people whose
abilities are sufficient to work in the “modern” sector of the economy and generate income aH;
and the high-ability people who do not have skills to find employment in the “modern” sector of
the economy, and are able to work at high-skill jobs of the “traditional” economy, generating
wage aM.
We further assume that the low-ability individuals cannot generate income on their own, and
receive social benefits in the amount of Z. The workers of the “traditional” economy are able to
generate some low-income; however, in the new economic reality, it is difficult to observe their
abilities compared to the low-ability individuals. Therefore, according to our previous model, the
government will have to pay such individuals some social benefit B such that U(B,[( aM- 1)T+
l(aL)]/ aM) ≥ U(aM*(T-l(aM)), l(aM)). Finally, we assume that the employees of the “modern” sector
of the economy have significantly higher wages compared to the low and medium-ability people,
and they will now alter their behavior in response to an increase in social benefits. However,
these people will be the main source of taxes to finance the SSN. A significant increase in wage
taxes for these people may force them to change their behavior and apply for the positions
occupied by medium-ability individuals. At the same time, being the main supporters of the SSN
and not being interested in use of the system, the high-ability people will prefer occupations that
allow further increases in wages by decreasing the amount of the wage (payroll) taxes.
We can assume that before the transition in both countries, Russia and Ukraine, the medium
and high-ability individuals were equally distributed between sectors of the economy and types
of ownership (because there was only one owner: the government). After transition, the
government-owned enterprises traditionally provided a better social protection package, but paid
lower wages. They constitute the largest part of the “traditional” economy in terms of our model.
A similar package of benefits is provided by the large private enterprises that are under the
strong influence of labor unions. On the other hand, newly formed small and medium enterprises
tend to provide higher wages, but lower social protection. In extreme cases, these enterprises
provide large salaries with no contributions to pension funds and no social protection at all. The
most extreme case of such behavior is the shadow economy, which is discussed in more detail
in other papers of this work package. Another extreme case is private entrepreneurs acting
under special laws. For example, in Ukraine, private entrepreneurs pay a small flat-rate tax on
every employee. The tax is smaller than the amount of the payroll taxes paid for a similar
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employee by a large enterprise, and does not accumulate any pensions or other social benefits
for the employees. This allows small entrepreneurs to pay employees larger wages.
Based on these assumptions, we have to observe that the weaker the SSN in the country is at
the moment, the larger is the segregation between the “modern” and “traditional” sectors of the
economy in wages and skills of employees in these two sectors. If this is correct, then empirical
evidence should demonstrate that the probability of working at a government enterprise
increases with the increase in SSN benefits and taxes. At the same time, the probability to work
at a small firm or with individual entrepreneurs decreases with the increase in social benefits and
decrease in payroll taxes.
3.1.3 Effect on geographical mobility of labor force
The traditional understanding of labor mobility is geographic mobility of laborers. The main
driving factors for such mobility traditionally are wage differentials and differences in labor
demand between geographic regions. If the social safety net is established by the government
and is uniform for all regions in the country, it should not impact the direction of the geographic
labor mobility. However, even if social security is uniform across the regions, according to our
model above, decreased social benefits will increase employment activity. Household income
from social security programs acts as a cushion that allows the worker to stay in the region with
low labor demand or low wage income. If this cushion is removed, the pressure on working
members of a family to find a better job increases, and therefore, we have to observe an
increase in the probability of moving to a new geographic location.
Because population mobility is traditionally low in Ukraine and Russia due to the non-labor
market constraints, such as underdeveloped real estate market and bureaucratic restrictions,
labor force mobility may be disassociated with household mobility. It is common to observe that
one working member of the family is temporarily moving to a new location with better income
opportunities, while other family members remain in the previous location. The study of poverty
in Ukraine (see 38), for example, showed that transfers from family members working abroad
provide a significant fraction of family income for Ukrainian households.
Given the ability to identify the individuals who have moved or are working away from home in
our statistical data, we should observe that the probability of working away significantly
increases with the decrease in the SSN income available to the family.
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3.2 Available data
In order to conduct a statistical analysis of the effects of the SSN on labor force mobility, we
must have data that:
1. Clearly identifies the dependent variable of our choice, mobility, and there is observed
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variation in the dependent variable.
2. Contains explanatory variables of interest characterizing the SSN, and there is identified
and observable variation in the explanatory variable.
The analysis can be done at two levels: the macro-level and micro-level discussed above. At the
macro-level, we can observe and analyse regional mobility of labor. Ideally, we would like to
observe in the data labor mobility for each region of the country before and after major changes
in the SSN in Russia or Ukraine. In order to isolate the effect of the SSN on mobility, we will also
need to be able to observe other major factors that effect mobility in a particular region, such as
the socio-economic characteristics of the region.
At the micro-level, we can test the hypothesis of the effect of the SSN on labor force mobility
(regional, employment, and sector mobility) described above if we appropriate micro-level data
for both countries. The main requirements for this data can be specified as follows:
1. The data must contain details of the employment status of an individual, socio-economic
characteristics of the individual and household, as well as wage and social security
income of the individual and/or household.
2. The data must cover the period of time when the SSN in the country had changed
significantly in order to identify the effect of these changes on labor mobility.
3. The data must contain information that allows for identifying the mobility of individuals.
For the purpose of this paper, it is necessary for the data to contain information about
personal labor participation and activity, information about the industry in which an
individual is employed, and an indicator that the individual is working outside of the
location where he/she resides.
The ideal data will contain multiple observations for an individual and household over several
periods of time with different SSN policies. However, because of the underdeveloped statistical
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system in the countries of our interest, we may have to use cross-sectional instead of
longitudinal data for the study. Below we describe sources of data available for both countries.
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3.2.1 Russia
As mentioned earlier, major changes to the SSN took place in 2001 and, for Russia, there is
regional level data available several years before and after this reform year. For this study we
used region-level data published by Rosstat in regional annual statistics books in 2000-2007
(see 28). There are observations for 78 regions of Russia included in our dataset. The dataset
excludes regions with poor data quality, such as Chechnya and Ingushetia, and does not include
“avtonomnye okruga” (autonomous regions) as separate entities.
Our variable of interest, labor migration, is not directly observed in Russia. Instead, Rosstat
provides information on the total migration balance for each region. In our dataset, migration is
defined as the difference between migration into a particular region (both interregional and
international) and migration out of the region. In order to compare the migration between
regions, we define the variable as number of migrants per 10,000 of the total regional
population. Rosstat also provides figures for the gross regional product per capita and the
average wage in regions.
The execution of the social funds budget and budget deficit was not equal between regions of
Russia. The social budget deficits and possible delays in payment of social benefits provide
another variation in the SSN between Russian regions, and can be a significant factor
influencing the regional mobility of labor. Rosstat provides information about revenues and
expenditures of social funds in regions of Russia. Based on this data, we constructed a variable
reflecting the deficit of the social funds in a region. The variable is equal to the difference
between the total revenue of social funds minus total expenditures of social funds, divided by
total revenue. A negative value of this variable suggests a deficit, and positive value suggests a
surplus of the social funds. The data on the revenues and expenditures of the social funds is
available for the period 1998-2005, which limits our period of analysis. In addition, there is a
slight inconsistency in the data reporting. Before the year 2000, revenues and expenditures
were reported for each social fund separately, but later reports provide a combined figure.
3.2.2 Ukraine
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As we discussed in earlier sections, the main reforms in the social safety net of Ukraine were
implemented in 2002-2004. Unfortunately, the results of these reforms are not observable with
the available data. However, similar to Russia, there was a significant difference in the financial
capacity of regions in the country, which resulted in arrears in SSN payments. We can use these
arrears as observable instrumental variables for the changes in the SSN system.
The pension fund of Ukraine provides information on arrears in payment of unemployment
benefits in the regions in 2000-2003 (see 21). Based on the average unemployment benefits in
each region and the number of registered unemployment, we calculate the total amount of
monthly unemployment benefits paid in a region. The two figures allowed us to define
unemployment arrears as the ratio of nominal unemployment arrears in the region to the total
nominal monthly payments of unemployment benefits. The resulting index showed significant
variation in the level of benefits between regions, with a common trend reducing these arrears
by 2003.
The Committee of Statistics of Ukraine also provides important regional-level data for the same
period. The data includes gross regional product per capita and the average wage in each
region. We also constructed an index of regional migration (migration balance per 1000 of the
regions’ total population) as a sum of the indexes for interregional and international migration
from each region. A negative value of the index suggests a net outflow of population from the
region. There are 27 regions in Ukraine, however, the resulting dataset does not include the city
of Sevastopol as a separate region since data for this region were inconsistent.
In recent years, Ukraine developed several sources of reliable micro-level data that allows us to
conduct a micro-level analysis of social security expenditures including the Labor Force Survey,
the Ukrainian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, and the Ukrainian Household Expenditures
Survey.
The Labor Force Survey was established with the assistance of international organizations, such
as the International Labor Organization (ILO), and presents information about work, personal
characteristics, and the wages of workers. Due to the fact that the survey is limited to working
people, it cannot be used for the micro-level analysis of the social transfer programs.
The Ukrainian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (ULMS) is a household panel of approximately
8,600 respondents surveyed twice a year since 2003. The survey sample and questionnaire
resemble the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) and American Panel Study of
Income Dynamics (PSID) (see 37). The survey presents opportunities for analysing the
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dynamics of social security expenditures at the micro-level. Unfortunately, at the moment of this
study the data collected during the survey was not available to the public.
The Ukrainian Household Expenditures Survey (UHES) is a household expenditures survey
implemented by the Committee of Statistics of Ukraine with the assistance of the World Bank.
The survey is conducted on a quarterly basis, and the sample includes approximately 9,000
households in every round, with 25% of the sample changing every quarter. The first round of
the survey was conducted in the fourth quarter of 1999, and it continues on an ongoing bases. In
addition to household data, the survey collects data on individual members of a household, and
provides information about employment status, income, unemployment and other benefits
collected by an individual. The high-frequency change of the sample makes it difficult to use the
UHES for a dynamic micro simulation model. At the same time, since the data has detailed
information on income from current welfare programs, the data is suitable for a static
microeconomic model. The latest data available for this research was first quarter 2005 data,
which contains 26,780 observations for individuals and 10,584 observations for households. It
has already been used to establish a Ukrainian poverty profile and determine factors of labor
force participation (see 38). This data is also widely used by the State Committee for Statistics of
Ukraine to establish household income and expenditure profiles. It is also used together with the
reports of social insurance funds to establish a broad range of social security utilization statistics
in Ukraine.
3.3 Do social safety nets reduce mobility?
At the beginning of this chapter we outlined the micro-level models that demonstrate how the
social safety net can reduce labor mobility between employment and unemployment, sectors of
the economy (government and non-government), and geographical regions. Below we present
simple estimates of the relations outlined in the theoretical models based on the data available
for Russia and Ukraine.
Since regional labor mobility is not observed in the micro-level datasets that are available, we
analyse regional mobility using the regional level data. We also provide a micro-level analysis
based on the UHES data. Finally, since there were a number of small changes introduced in the
SSN in both countries in different years during the period of time covered by the data, we cannot
clearly observe a single change in the SSN. Instead, we use the deficits of social funds and
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resulting delays in payment of social benefits as a proxy for individual expectations about the
level of social protection in a particular region and at a particular point in time.
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3.3.1 Data Analysis, Case of Russia
Based on the available data, we are exploring the relations between an index of regional
migration (dependent variable) and the level of the social funds deficit (primary explanatory
variable). Due to the limited number of observations, we can only fit the reduced model with this
data. In order to account for other major factors that might influence labor mobility, we also
include GRP per capita and the average wage in the region.
Since we have reason to believe that the reduced form model left behind factors that are
common within regions and factors that are characterising the socio-economic situation during
each year, we estimate a fixed-effects model on our data panel (78 regions by 8 years).
Results of the regression are presented in Table 3. Results suggest that the deficit of social
funds in the regions is a statistically significant explanatory variable for migration to the region.
The coefficient is positive, suggesting that a larger surplus of the social funds leads to a larger
net inflow of migrants to the region. Although we are able to establish strong relations between
the deficit of social funds and migration from a region, this simple regression does not allow us
to establish causality of the relations or exact size of the deficits’ effect on migration (because
we are leaving out too many factors that can be correlated to the deficit of social funds in the
region).
The available data also covers the periods before and after the major changes in the social
system in Russia that took place in 2001. We defined a dummy variable equal to zero in the
years before 2000, and one after 2000. The results of the fixed-effect estimation of the reduced
model including this variable are presented in.
The results suggest that there is a statistically significant relationship between migration and the
dummy variable. The inclusion of the dummy variable also increased the statistical significance
of the estimated relations between migration and the deficit of social funds in a region. The
reduced form model does not allow us to attribute the estimated effect of the dummy variable
only to the SSN reform implemented during this time period. However, a statistically significant
coefficient for this dummy suggests that there was a significant structural change in the factors
influencing migration after 2001.
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3.3.2 Data Analysis, Case of Ukraine
The data available for Ukraine allows us to estimate a reduced form model for the effect of the
SSN on migration. The dependent variable in the model is the migration index discussed above,
and the main explanatory variable is the level of arrears in payments of social benefits as a
proxy for the inequality of the SSN between regions. Similarly to the regressions for Russia, in
order to account for other major factors that might influence labor mobility, we also include GRP
per capita and average wage in the region.
Since we have reason to believe that the reduced form model does not include factors that are
common within regions and factors characterising the socio-economic situation during each
year, we estimate a fixed-effects model on our data panel (26 regions by 3 years).
Results of the regression are presented in Table 5. Results suggest that arrears in payment of
unemployment benefits are correlated with migration in the region, however, the coefficient is not
significantly different from zero. In addition, the coefficient is positive, suggesting that larger
arrears lead to a larger net inflow of migrants to the region, which is a counter-intuitive result.
However, these results can be used to support one of the suggestions derived from the
theoretical model: it may suggest that the populations in regions with higher arrears are less
mobile, therefore, out-migration from the regions is low and we observe a positive migration
balance because there is only incoming migration in the region.
The results of the regional level analysis are inconclusive at this point, and it is possible that
more detailed data could allow for an expansion of the reduced-form model and provide better
insight about regional labor migration and the SSN in Ukraine. The micro-level data available for
the country does not allow for estimating these relations at the micro-level because we do not
observe regional migration of the population in this data.
However, we use the micro-level data to test two other relations implied by theoretical models
outlined above. First, we run a regression to explore if the arrears in payment of social benefits
in a region where the person lives impacts their probability of being unemployed (or labor force
mobility between employment and unemployment). We run a probit regression, where the
dependent variable is unemployment status (1 indicates that the person is unemployed, 0
indicates that the person is employed or is engaged in some other form of money-earning
activity). The main explanatory variable of interest is the level of arrears in payment of
unemployment benefits described above. In order to account for other factors that are commonly
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suggested in the literature to influence the employment decision, we included in our regression
personal characteristics of the person (age, sex, marital status, level of education, number of
children and elderly in the household).
We use UHES data for three years (2000-2003). The sample is limited to the individuals of
working age (15 to 70 years old), and we have over 10,000 individual observations each year.
However, the data is not panel data since due to the quarterly rotation of the UHES sample,
each individual is presented in the data only in one year. Therefore, we cannot run a standard
panel regression. However, we expect that there are strong common factors influencing
individuals during a single year, and also strong common factors in each region. In order to
capture these effects, we defined regional and annual dummy variables that are included in the
model specification.
Results of the probit regression for the probability of being unemployed are presented in. The
baseline individual, defined by omitted dummy variables, is a single male with secondary
education living in a town in the Kievskaya oblast. The regression suggests a statistically
significant effect of arrears in unemployment benefits in a region on the probability of being
unemployed: the larger the unemployment arrears the lower is the probability a person is
unemployed. This result supports the findings of the theoretical models above.
The theoretical models also implied that the SSN might also influence labor migration between
“old” and “new” sectors of the economy, represented by government and non-government
enterprises in the case of Ukraine. The data allows testing this theory because we are able to
construct an indicator that a person is working at a government-owned enterprise or
organization. We limit our sample to the individuals who indicated their status as employed for a
salary during the observation period. For this limited sample, we run a probit regression for
probability of working in a government-owned enterprise or organization. The specifications of
the regression are similar to the specifications for the probability of unemployment in the model
described above.
The results of the model are presented in Table 7. The results of the estimation are not sufficient
to confirm our theoretical model. Although the estimated effect of the arrears has the expected
sign (suggesting that larger unemployment arrears, meaning a weaker SSN, reduce the
probability of staying in the “old” economy), we cannot reject the hypothesis that the coefficient is
zero. These weak results suggest that the theoretical model might be confirmed if we find a
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better instrument for measuring the individual expectations of the weakness of the SSN (rather
than unemployment payment arrears).
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4. Results of the model
The analysis of the data at the macro (regional) level produced interesting results although none
of the models allow us, with certainty, to confirm the hypothesis that stronger social safety nets
reduce inter-regional mobility of labor. The analysis suggests that there are strong relations
between the social safety net and inter-regional mobility in Russia, possibly because it has a
larger territory, greater variation between regions, and other restrictions on informal
(unregistered) inter-regional labor mobility. The same relations are not that significant in Ukraine,
which has a smaller territory and fewer other restrictions for workers to live and work in two
different regions of the country. However, these results could also be attributed to the problems
with the data and specifications of the models and, therefore, are inconclusive.
One of the largest problems arises because of the inability to find direct measures for both the
dependent and independent variables:
1. The data on labor/worker mobility between regions is not collected. Instead, we used
data on overall population mobility, and assumed that the number of people moving in
and out of region is directly related or proportional to labor mobility. However, this
assumption could be violated if: (a) the size of migrating families is significantly different
between regions, and if in one region all family members are workers, or the ratio of
workers to non-workers in families is high. In this case, the proportion of labor migrants in
two regions of a country will significantly differ from the proportion of observed population
migration; (b) the statistics generally do not capture temporary migration of workers. We
mentioned earlier that the sizes of the shadow economies approach 40% of the total
economy in Russia and 50% of the total economy in Ukraine. Workers moving to work in
the shadow economy most probably would not be registered in official migration
statistics.
2. We also did not directly observe differences in available social protection between
regions. The SSN legislation is universal for all regions in both countries. However, we
argued that there is regional difference due to the local execution of the SSN legislation:
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delays in payment of social benefits can be considered as a lower level of benefits from
the point of view of the individual. There is significant variation in the social budget
deficits and arrears in SSN payments between regions in Russia and Ukraine. However,
since the main variable of interest is not directly observed, we cannot establish clear
statistical relations between the variable of interest and our proxy/instrumental variables.
As a result, our estimates for Russia show significant relations between the SSN budget
deficit and population outflow from a region. However, it is difficult to establish the
causality of the relations: it is possible to argue that the outflow of workers from a region
reduces the regional budget revenues and causes the deficit.
Our estimates for Ukraine have another problem. We observe only a deficit in the
payment of one type of SSN payment: unemployment benefits. Although unemployment
benefits are important, they are paid during a relatively short period of time. Therefore,
we can argue that unemployment benefits may be insufficient to influence one’s decision
about moving to another region. More importantly, this may affect expectations about
pension benefits; however, we did not have the information about variations in the
payments of pensions in the regions of Ukraine. Once of the reasons for this is that the
regional pension funds are part of a central pension fund that is subsidized from the
budget, and there were no delays with pension payments over the last several years in
Ukraine.
Additional restrictions to the interpretation of the result of the regional-level analysis arise
because of the possible countrywide factors influencing mobility that were not included in the
model specifications. First, since the time of the Soviet Union, it is required that people register
in both countries, creating significant bureaucratic barriers to official migration. Second, both
countries experienced housing supply shortages and a rigid housing market, which prevents
extensive migration between regions. The inability to find appropriate housing for a family may
limit interregional migration of families (which is an observed variable), and force a worker to
migrate to another region temporarily (it is easier to rent an apartment or room for a single
worker than for the family). Finally, there is the problem of unobserved labor migration between
regions of the country that we discussed earlier.
We see several possible ways to improve the results of the macro-level analysis of the effects of
the SSN on geographical labor migration in CIS countries in the future. First, cooperate with
local and country authorities to find or establish better statistical data. An extension of this
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method can be the introduction of a longitudinal labor force survey that specifically tracks labor
migration. Second, we can analyse a wider range of FSU countries. We mentioned earlier that
all FSU countries had a common SSN system during the Soviet Union, but the development of
the SSNs was different after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Therefore, we should be able to
observe greater variation in the SSNs on a sample of FSU countries. However, the challenge for
this approach will be the availability of compatible data, especially for the period close to the
beginning of transition. During the 1990s, the national statistical systems in the new independent
states were not sufficiently developed, and it is hard to find quality statistical data.
The micro-level analysis was conducted only for Ukraine. The analysis found strong relations
between the probability to be unemployed and our instrumental variable for the quality of the
social safety net. However, because of our choice of the instrumental variable, the extension of
this result beyond the relation with the instrumental variable may be problematic. Our
instrumental variable was arrears in payments of unemployment benefits. It is not surprising to
find statistically significant relations between the arrears and the probability of being
unemployed: we found that larger arrears led to a decrease in the probability of being
unemployed. This relation is expected because the unemployment benefits are a “payment” for
the decision to be unemployed, and the lower is the “payment”, the lower should be the desire to
become unemployed. However, payments (receipt) of other social benefits are not necessarily a
direct consequence of unemployment. It is especially true for the largest and longest paid
benefit: the pension. For a person younger than pension age, the pension is not paid in case of
the decision to become unemployed, however, the pension remains the largest and longest
expected benefit of the SSN. However, because of the unique direct relationship between
unemployment benefits and the unemployment decision, it is hard to extend this result on
pensions and other benefits.
A similar argument could be made about the results for the estimated effect of the SSN on the
decision to work in the government or modern economy. Our theoretical model suggested that
the stronger is the SSN in the country (the larger is the expected amount of social transfers), the
stronger should be the incentive to work in the “traditional” (government) sector of the economy
(that promises more social security) than in the “modern” sector of the economy (which is the
main contributor of the SSN through tax payments). However, currently, unemployment
insurance is one of the lowest expected payments of the social security system, because it is
related to the official salary of an employee, which is low in both government and non-government
sectors. On the other side, the amount of payroll taxes going to unemployment
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insurance is also at least ten times smaller than the amount of taxes going to pension funds.
Therefore, the inconclusive result of our statistical analysis of the relation between the probability
to work in the government sector of the economy and the amount (arrears) of unemployment
benefits may be not representative of the total effect of SSN benefits. We can argue that
expected pension benefits should have a significantly stronger effect on the decision to work in
the government vs. “modern” economy since the amount of expected benefits is significantly
larger.
One of the possibilities to improve the quality of the results of the micro-level analysis may be to
find another instrumental variable for the inequality of SSN protection, especially between the
workers in the “traditional” and “modern” economies. Such differences are hardly observed in the
past because a large portion of incomes in the “modern” sector was not taxed (because it was
paid under the table), and the largest social security payments were not directly linked to the
amount of contributions. However, currently the tax discipline and tax enforcement in both
Russia and Ukraine are increasing and, therefore, we can expect to clearly observe larger social
security contributions of employees in the “modern” economy than in the “traditional” economy.
At the same time, because social security systems continue to struggle from a financial
imbalance, we can expect that the amount of payments will continue to be weakly related to the
amount of contributions. If observed, these linkages will allow us to test the above-mentioned
theoretical model statistically.
5. Policy lessons and conclusions
Theoretical models and data analysis provide arguments that stronger social safety nets reduce
the mobility of labor between regions of the economy, between employment and unemployment,
and between different sectors of the economy. It also provides some statistical support to the
arguments about the effect of a stronger SSN on geographical (regional) mobility and its effect
on unemployment.
These theoretical and practical arguments may have significant implications for the design of
reforms in the countries of transition. The general argument for a stronger SSN is to protect the
most vulnerable parts of the population (the elderly, the poor, and the unemployed) from the
negative effects of transition. At the same time, a fast transition requires a fast reallocation of
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