CASE Network Studies and Analyses 463 - Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Partner Countries. Country report: Georgia
This study provides an analysis of the costs and benefits of emigration for Georgia, with an emphasis on emigration to the EU. In the concluding section we dwell on the consequences of a possible liberalization of EU migration policies with regard to Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries, and how such a policy change would affect the flow and composition of migration from Georgia to the EU. The study estimates the costs and benefits of migration through the prism of recent economics developments in Georgia and in particular the sweeping liberalization reforms of recent years. While Georgia remains a poor country, its geopolitical position as a Western outpost in the Caucasus and Central Asian region, its role as a key trade and transportation hub, the superior quality of its bureaucracy, lack of corruption, etc., provide a very different context for migration processes, turning migration into a circular phenomenon, a major factor in modernizing the Georgian economy, society, and politics. The EU should give due consideration to this phenomenon as it (re)considers its policy on migration with regard to Georgia and, potentially, other EaP countries.
Authored by: Lasha Labadze and Mirian Tukhashvili
Ukraine is a migration-intensive country, with an estimated 1.5-2 million labour migrants (about 5% of the working-age population). Slightly over a half of these migrants travel for work to the EU. This study discusses the impact of this large pool of migrants on both the sending and receiving countries. It also assesses how liberalisation of the EU visa regime, something that the EU is currently negotiating with Ukraine, will affect the stream of Ukrainian labour migrants to EU countries. Our study suggests that the number of tourists will increase substantially, whereas the increase in the number of labour migrants is unlikely to be very large. We also suggest that the number of legal migrants is likely to increase, but at the same time the number of illegal migrants will decline because currently only a third of migrants from Ukraine have both residence and work permits in the EU, while about a quarter of them stay there illegally.
Authored by: Hannah Vakhitova and Tom Coupé
Published in 2013
This study is part of the project entitled “Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Countries” for the European Commission1. The study was written by Luca Barbone (CASE) Mikhail Bonch- Osmolovskiy (CASE) and Matthias Luecke (CASE, Kiel). It is based on the six country studies for the Eastern Partnership countries commissioned under this project and prepared by Mihran Galstyan and Gagik Makaryan (Armenia), Azer Allahveranov and Emin Huseynov (Azerbaijan), Aleksander Chubrik and Aliaksei Kazlou (Belarus), Lasha Labadze and Mirjan Tukhashvili (Georgia), Vasile Cantarji and Georgeta Mincu (Moldova), Tom Coupé and Hanna Vakhitova (Ukraine). The authors would like to thank for their comments and suggestions Kathryn Anderson, Martin Kahanec, Costanza Biavaschi, Lucia Kurekova, Monica Bucurenciu, Borbala Szegeli, Giovanni Cremonini and Ummuhan Bardak, as well as the dbaretailed review provided by IOM. The views in this study are those of the authors’ only, and should not be interpreted as representing the official position of the European Commission and its institutions.
Written by Luca Barbone, Mikhail Bonch-Osmolovsky and Matthias Luecke. Published in September 2013.
PDF available on our website at: http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/58264
This Report is one of the six studies in the first phase of the EU project on the “Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Partner Countries”. It aims at providing an informed view of the potential for increased migration flows and their consequences as a result of possible changes in the migration policies of the European Union with regard to Azerbaijan. The Report is comprised of 7 Chapters. Chapters 1 and 2 provide a discussion of relevant developments in the economy and labour market in the period since independence, with emphasis on developments over the last ten years or so. Chapter 3 provides a detailed discussion of trends in migration, and discusses the labour migration profile. Chapter 4 analyses remittances and their impact on income, investment and consumption. Chapter 5 provides a discussion of the available evidence on the costs and benefits of labour migration, emphasising the economic, social and demographic costs and consequences. Chapter 6 discusses current migration policies and institutions, while Chapter 7 discusses various factors that may be useful in forecasting key migration trends in the future.
Authored by: Azer Allahveranov and Emin Huseynov
Published in 2013
The purpose of this study is to explore and assess the costs and benefits of labour migration in Armenia and the potential of migration for contributing to the country’s development. We also examine how policy can be effectively formulated and implemented so that Armenia can get the most out of its migration experience. Lastly, we analyse how a phenomenon that emerged because of limited opportunities for employment – migration – evolved into a strategy towards development and prosperity.
Based on this analysis, this paper makes a strong argument in favour of implementing programs in Armenia that involve the active collaboration of government institutions and the Armenian Diaspora, duly considering the unusual influence the latter has on Armenia’s economic and human development.
Authored by: Gagik Makaryan and Mihran Galstyan
Published in 2013
The aim of this report is a deepened recognition of employment in long-term care (LTC). It presents past and future trends in the development of LTC employment. Authors collected scattered statistical information, estimated lacking data and projected future growth in the number of employed in care services. Performed analysis includes employment in the health and social sector and across various types of care. Projections of the demand for care and supply of the LTC workforce are based on the demographic prognosis of the population size and changes in the age structure taking into account different scenarios for demographic development. Results show the growing gap between demand and supply in the LTC employment. The policy towards aging in Poland must take up the challenge of growing care needs, family changes and lower opportunities for provision of informal care.
Authored by: Stanislawa Golinowska, Ewa Kocot, Agnieszka Sowa
Published in 2014
Labour migration does not appear to have the same magnitude and socio-economic importance in Belarus as in other EaP countries. It is one of the few post-socialist economies that have preserved the dominance of the state sector and built complicated systems of subsidisation and economic support for the population designed to manage the political-business cycle (see Chubrik, Shymanovich, Zaretsky (2012)). This model has allowed the economy to grow quite steadily until recently. However, the distorted system of incentives that was created for enterprises and households has resulted in the need for a “correction”, which happened in the form of a balance of payments crisis in 2011. The impact of this factor on migration has not been fully visible yet. At the same time the relatively long period of stability and gradual, but steady, increase in welfare payments has played a role as a migration-restraining factor. In order to estimate cost and benefits of labour migration between EU and Belarus, this study utilises publically available literature as background and relies where possible on micro-data: Census-2009, Household Budget Survey (HBS), as well as relevant official data and data from polls related to the topic. Additionally, some sections of this report rely on information collected in the course of a focus group meeting with labour migrants and a series of in-depth interviews with officials from state, international, and non-governmental agencies dealing with migration. Lastly, in some cases anecdotal evidence was collected to support some of the new trends that have not yet been recorded in the statistics.
Authored by: Alexander Chubrik and Alaksei Kazlou
The report discusses employment in the health care system in Poland based on analysis and projections of the demand and supply of medical workforce. The impact of the financial situation and policy on relativelly low employment level of medical personel was accounted for in the analysis while projections were driven by demographic changes in the following two decades. Results of different demographic variants of projections used in Neujobs project and additional scenarios show that while ageing is an important factor that may stimulate demand for provision of medical personnel, changes might be mitigated by further increase in efficiency of care. At the same time the supply of care will be affected by ageing too. The results indicate that more detailed monitoring of employment in the future will be needed in order to assure adequacy of provision of medical professionals, especially of nurses (critical gap), some medical specialists, physiotherapists and medical technical personnel.
This report was prepared within a research project entitled NEUJOBS, which has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no. 266833.
Written by Stanislawa Golinowska, Agnieszka Sowa and Ewa Kocot. Published in August 2014.
PDF available on our website at: http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/58694
The report aims to identify major existing gaps in the five socio-economic dimensions (economic, human, openness, environmental, and institutional) and to reveal those gaps which could potentially hinder social and economic integration of neighbor states with the EU. To achieve this, the authors aim to assess the existing trends in the size of the gaps across countries and problem areas, taking into consideration the specific origin of the gap between EU15/EU12, on the one hand, and FSU republics, EU candidates and West Balkan countries, on the other hand.
Authored by: Aziz Atamanov, Alexander Chubrik, Irina Denisova, Vladimir Dubrovskiy, Marina Kartseva, Irina Lukashova, Irina Makenbaeva, Magdalena Rokicka, Irina Sinitsina
Published in 2008
Michael Tokmazishvili
Ukraine is a migration-intensive country, with an estimated 1.5-2 million labour migrants (about 5% of the working-age population). Slightly over a half of these migrants travel for work to the EU. This study discusses the impact of this large pool of migrants on both the sending and receiving countries. It also assesses how liberalisation of the EU visa regime, something that the EU is currently negotiating with Ukraine, will affect the stream of Ukrainian labour migrants to EU countries. Our study suggests that the number of tourists will increase substantially, whereas the increase in the number of labour migrants is unlikely to be very large. We also suggest that the number of legal migrants is likely to increase, but at the same time the number of illegal migrants will decline because currently only a third of migrants from Ukraine have both residence and work permits in the EU, while about a quarter of them stay there illegally.
Authored by: Hannah Vakhitova and Tom Coupé
Published in 2013
This study is part of the project entitled “Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Countries” for the European Commission1. The study was written by Luca Barbone (CASE) Mikhail Bonch- Osmolovskiy (CASE) and Matthias Luecke (CASE, Kiel). It is based on the six country studies for the Eastern Partnership countries commissioned under this project and prepared by Mihran Galstyan and Gagik Makaryan (Armenia), Azer Allahveranov and Emin Huseynov (Azerbaijan), Aleksander Chubrik and Aliaksei Kazlou (Belarus), Lasha Labadze and Mirjan Tukhashvili (Georgia), Vasile Cantarji and Georgeta Mincu (Moldova), Tom Coupé and Hanna Vakhitova (Ukraine). The authors would like to thank for their comments and suggestions Kathryn Anderson, Martin Kahanec, Costanza Biavaschi, Lucia Kurekova, Monica Bucurenciu, Borbala Szegeli, Giovanni Cremonini and Ummuhan Bardak, as well as the dbaretailed review provided by IOM. The views in this study are those of the authors’ only, and should not be interpreted as representing the official position of the European Commission and its institutions.
Written by Luca Barbone, Mikhail Bonch-Osmolovsky and Matthias Luecke. Published in September 2013.
PDF available on our website at: http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/58264
This Report is one of the six studies in the first phase of the EU project on the “Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Partner Countries”. It aims at providing an informed view of the potential for increased migration flows and their consequences as a result of possible changes in the migration policies of the European Union with regard to Azerbaijan. The Report is comprised of 7 Chapters. Chapters 1 and 2 provide a discussion of relevant developments in the economy and labour market in the period since independence, with emphasis on developments over the last ten years or so. Chapter 3 provides a detailed discussion of trends in migration, and discusses the labour migration profile. Chapter 4 analyses remittances and their impact on income, investment and consumption. Chapter 5 provides a discussion of the available evidence on the costs and benefits of labour migration, emphasising the economic, social and demographic costs and consequences. Chapter 6 discusses current migration policies and institutions, while Chapter 7 discusses various factors that may be useful in forecasting key migration trends in the future.
Authored by: Azer Allahveranov and Emin Huseynov
Published in 2013
The purpose of this study is to explore and assess the costs and benefits of labour migration in Armenia and the potential of migration for contributing to the country’s development. We also examine how policy can be effectively formulated and implemented so that Armenia can get the most out of its migration experience. Lastly, we analyse how a phenomenon that emerged because of limited opportunities for employment – migration – evolved into a strategy towards development and prosperity.
Based on this analysis, this paper makes a strong argument in favour of implementing programs in Armenia that involve the active collaboration of government institutions and the Armenian Diaspora, duly considering the unusual influence the latter has on Armenia’s economic and human development.
Authored by: Gagik Makaryan and Mihran Galstyan
Published in 2013
The aim of this report is a deepened recognition of employment in long-term care (LTC). It presents past and future trends in the development of LTC employment. Authors collected scattered statistical information, estimated lacking data and projected future growth in the number of employed in care services. Performed analysis includes employment in the health and social sector and across various types of care. Projections of the demand for care and supply of the LTC workforce are based on the demographic prognosis of the population size and changes in the age structure taking into account different scenarios for demographic development. Results show the growing gap between demand and supply in the LTC employment. The policy towards aging in Poland must take up the challenge of growing care needs, family changes and lower opportunities for provision of informal care.
Authored by: Stanislawa Golinowska, Ewa Kocot, Agnieszka Sowa
Published in 2014
Labour migration does not appear to have the same magnitude and socio-economic importance in Belarus as in other EaP countries. It is one of the few post-socialist economies that have preserved the dominance of the state sector and built complicated systems of subsidisation and economic support for the population designed to manage the political-business cycle (see Chubrik, Shymanovich, Zaretsky (2012)). This model has allowed the economy to grow quite steadily until recently. However, the distorted system of incentives that was created for enterprises and households has resulted in the need for a “correction”, which happened in the form of a balance of payments crisis in 2011. The impact of this factor on migration has not been fully visible yet. At the same time the relatively long period of stability and gradual, but steady, increase in welfare payments has played a role as a migration-restraining factor. In order to estimate cost and benefits of labour migration between EU and Belarus, this study utilises publically available literature as background and relies where possible on micro-data: Census-2009, Household Budget Survey (HBS), as well as relevant official data and data from polls related to the topic. Additionally, some sections of this report rely on information collected in the course of a focus group meeting with labour migrants and a series of in-depth interviews with officials from state, international, and non-governmental agencies dealing with migration. Lastly, in some cases anecdotal evidence was collected to support some of the new trends that have not yet been recorded in the statistics.
Authored by: Alexander Chubrik and Alaksei Kazlou
The report discusses employment in the health care system in Poland based on analysis and projections of the demand and supply of medical workforce. The impact of the financial situation and policy on relativelly low employment level of medical personel was accounted for in the analysis while projections were driven by demographic changes in the following two decades. Results of different demographic variants of projections used in Neujobs project and additional scenarios show that while ageing is an important factor that may stimulate demand for provision of medical personnel, changes might be mitigated by further increase in efficiency of care. At the same time the supply of care will be affected by ageing too. The results indicate that more detailed monitoring of employment in the future will be needed in order to assure adequacy of provision of medical professionals, especially of nurses (critical gap), some medical specialists, physiotherapists and medical technical personnel.
This report was prepared within a research project entitled NEUJOBS, which has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no. 266833.
Written by Stanislawa Golinowska, Agnieszka Sowa and Ewa Kocot. Published in August 2014.
PDF available on our website at: http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/58694
The report aims to identify major existing gaps in the five socio-economic dimensions (economic, human, openness, environmental, and institutional) and to reveal those gaps which could potentially hinder social and economic integration of neighbor states with the EU. To achieve this, the authors aim to assess the existing trends in the size of the gaps across countries and problem areas, taking into consideration the specific origin of the gap between EU15/EU12, on the one hand, and FSU republics, EU candidates and West Balkan countries, on the other hand.
Authored by: Aziz Atamanov, Alexander Chubrik, Irina Denisova, Vladimir Dubrovskiy, Marina Kartseva, Irina Lukashova, Irina Makenbaeva, Magdalena Rokicka, Irina Sinitsina
Published in 2008
Michael Tokmazishvili
The paper builds predictive scenarios for the agricultural sector of eleven Mediterranean countries (Med 11), namely Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestine, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey. First, it assesses the performance trends of the Med 11 agricultural sector with a focus on production, consumption and trade patterns, incentives, trade protection policies and trade relations with the EU and productivity dynamics and their determinants. Secondly, it presents four scenarios based on the main value chains of the agriculture sector of Med 11: animal products, fruits and vegetables, sugar and edible oil, cereals and fish and other sea products. The four scenarios are: business as usual, Mediterranean One global Player, the Euro Mediterranean Area under threat and the EU and Med 11 as Regional Player.
Written by Saad Belghazi. Published in August 2012.
PDF available on our website at: http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/57764
This paper provides an overview of public expenditures on education and healthcare in Belarus, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Ukraine and some other countries of the former Soviet Union before and during the global financial crisis. Before the crisis, the governments of these countries were substantially increasing spending on education and health. The crisis adversely affected the FSU countries and worsened their fiscal situation. The analysis indicates that during the crisis, despite the fiscal constraints, public education and health expenditures have mostly been maintained or increased in almost all of these countries. However, the crisis situation was not taken as an opportunity to address these countries' key education and healthcare problems related to demographic changes, insufficient per capita expenditure levels, the low efficiency of public spending and the insufficient quality of services. These issues form an ambitious reform agenda for these countries in the medium- and long-term.
Authored by: Alexander Chubrik, Marek Dabrowski, Roman Mogilevsky, Irina Sinitsina
Published in 2011
The paper aims at assessing the specific impact of shallow versus deep integration between Mediterranean (MED) countries and their partners in the European Union (EU) as well as between the MED countries themselves. It relies on dataset developed for this project concerning tariffs (as a proxy for shallow integration) and Non Tariff Measures (NTMs) (as a proxy for deep integration). Additional data are also included in order to take into account other trade costs, especially transport costs and logistics costs. In this regard, an original dataset of maritime freight cost (Maersk, 2007) is introduced as well as the trade logistics performance (TLP) index produced by the World Bank. Such datasets are useful for providing additional insight into deep integration.
Finally the study shows that there is a huge potential for enhancing trade amongst MED countries if trade costs are lowered, logistics is improved, and NTMs are abolished.
Authored by: Ahmed Ghoneim, Javier Lopez Gonzalez, Maximiliano Mendez Parra, Nicolas Peridy
Published in 2011
The current fiscal imbalances and fragilities in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMC) are the result of decades of instability, but have become more visible since 2008, when a combination of adverse economic and political shocks (the global and European financial crises, Arab Spring) hit the region. In an environment of slower growth and higher public expenditure pressures, fiscal deficits and public debts have increased rapidly. This has led to the deterioration of current accounts, a depletion of official reserves, the depreciation of some currencies and higher inflationary pressure.
To avoid the danger of public debt and a balance-of-payment crisis, comprehensive economic reforms, including fiscal adjustment, are urgently needed. These reforms should involve eliminating energy and food subsidies and replacing them with targeted social assistance, reducing the oversized public administration and privatizing public sector enterprises, improving the business climate, increasing trade and investment openness, and sector diversification. The SEMC may also benefit from a peace dividend if the numerous internal and regional conflicts are resolved.
However, the success of economic reforms will depend on the results of the political transition, i.e., the ability to build stable democratic regimes which can resist populist temptations and rally political support for more rational economic policies.
Authored by: Marek Dąbrowski
Published in 2014
The paper aims to assess the impact of selected elements of social harmonization on labor market performance in the European Union among two groups of workers—the total working population and the elderly. The aim is to examine whether upward changes in labor taxes affect employment, unemployment, and inactivity rates in the European Union.
Until the early 1990s, the discussions on fiscal policy primarily centered on the functions of economic stabilization, income redistribution and resource allocation. Long-term growth was not usually viewed as an end itself, and fiscal policy was often not sufficiently tailored to the different circumstances and priorities of countries at different stages of development. It is only relatively recently that the discussion has gradually focused on the links between different dimensions of quality of public finances and economic growth.
Based on the conceptual framework for linking the quality of public finances and economic growth that has been developed by the European Commission and applied to the EU Member States, this study examines the conditions under which the budgetary policy, and more specifically expenditure, revenue and financing design would be supportive of growth in the Mediterranean partner countries of the European Union. The study also highlights some of the interlinkages between fiscal policy and growth and summarises empirical findings found in the literature with particular focus on Mediterranean partner countries of the European Union.
The study concludes by highlighting possible areas in the planning and execution of fiscal policy and governance where growth enhancing interventions can be applied.
Authored by: Leonor Coutinho, Luc De Wulf, Santiago Florez, Cyrus Sassanpour
Published in 2010
Despite its many advantages, the Eastern and Southern Mediterranean region remains relatively backward in economic and social terms and is rightly considered a potential source of social and political instability. Its average GDP per capita lags behind the global average and is increasing slowly due to weak economic policies, poor governance and rapid population growth. The region suffers from high unemployment (especially among women and youth), poor education, high levels of income inequality, gender discrimination, underdeveloped infrastructure, continuous trade protectionism, and a poor business climate. To overcome these development obstacles, MED countries should conduct comprehensive reforms of their economic, social and political systems with the aim of ensuring macroeconomic stability, increasing trade and investment openness, improving the business climate and governance system, and upgrading infrastructure and human capital.
The main economic and political partners of the MED countries, especially the EU, can actively support this modernization agenda through liberalizing trade in some sensitive sectors (like agriculture and services), adopting a more flexible approach to MED labor migration, and cooperating in mitigating climate changes, improving educational outcomes, and promoting science and culture. This will require renewed initiatives with dedicated technical assistance and continued and enhanced financial assistance, particularly to improve infrastructure. There is also a lot of room for improvement in intra-MED cooperation but this requires resolving the protracted political conflicts in the region and taking bolder steps to remove trade and investment barriers.
Written by Marek Dąbrowski and Luc De Wulf. Published in January 2013.
PDF available on our website: http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/57925
In the report, the authors present an insight of the socio-economic drivers of economic and noneconomic activity of persons 50+, as well as their ability to adopt to SET. Not only the labour market participation, but also social engagement, beliefs, education, religious activities and housework are studied. With the use of European Social Survey data they investigate the general level of the activity among people aged 50+ in Europe as well as the relation between various aspects of activity and general labour market performance. They obtain mixed results on the concomitance of non-market and labour-market activities. At the same time they check the role of personal traits as well as pull and push factors on prematurely leaving labour market in European countries. The differences among countries in terms of the results are confronted with the institutional characteristics of the countries. Finally, selected case studies of successful activation policies are presented.
The report was released within a project NEUJOBS- “The Impact of Service Sector Innovation and Internationalisation on Growth and Productivity”, funded by the European Commission, Research Directorate General as part of the 7th Framework Programme.
Written by Izabela Styczynska, Maciej Lis, Aart Jan Riekhoff and Agnieszka Kaminska. Published in October 2013.
PDF available on our website at: http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/58346
The aim of this paper is to examine the issues of gender disparities in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) region, with a special focus given to countries covered by the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP). The analysis is conducted in several dimensions: labour participation, economic opportunity, political empowerment, educational attainment, and health and demography. Beside the comparative study of "in region differentials" done for the CIS, I analyze the trends in gender disparities in comparison to EU-12 and EU-15, using data for the period 1985-2005.
The study confirms the existence of slightly different paths in which gender disparities have evolved over time. While in EU-15 women participation in labour market, their remuneration, and position in public life have significantly increased, in majority of the CIS countries a gradual decrease of female labour activity was reported. In addition female representation in politics and public life has shrunken after and during the transition period. On the other hand in such fields as secondary and tertiary education attainment, health, and demography male population in the CIS region has became more disadvantaged, which also leads to enlarging gender gap.
Authored by: Magdalena Rokicka
Published in 2008
This report presents the methodology for the construction of the Financial Stress Index (FSI) and the Economic Sensitivity Index (ESI) and investigates the economic situation in twelve Central and East European Countries (CEECs) between 2001 and 2012. The objective of this paper was to capture key features of financial and economic vulnerability and examine the co-movement of economic turmoil and financial disturbances that strongly affected the CEECs in the last decade. The main finding is that the FSI can be used as a leading indicator and can be used to recognize changing trends in the index. A shift in the value of the index proves that EU accession has a positive, but minor influence on financial stability in the CEECs. On the other hand, the impact of the introduction of the euro in Estonia, Slovakia and Slovenia is ambiguous.
For most of the countries in our sample, the FSI started to grow rapidly in 2007, reaching its peak around the third quarter of 2008. Consequently, financial stress remained high for a few quarters and started to fall gradually. For a number of countries, we observe higher financial stress in the latest period of our analysis, i.e. 2010-2012. However, the value of the FSI was significantly lower than three years earlier.
The results show that indices might be helpful in predicting future recessions. Consequently, the model will be expanded by adding a forecasting module, the launch of which is planned for April 2014.
Written by Maciej Krzak and Grzegorz Poniatowski. Published in January 2014
PDF available on our website at: http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/58411
This paper analyses the public finance performance and the dynamics of government expenditures on education and health in the Kyrgyz Republic in 2007-2010, when the country was hit by the global economic crisis and then by an internal political crisis in 2010. Despite these crisis conditions, public health expenditures have increased substantially. In education, recurrent expenditures have been protected, while capital investments have been cut dramatically. Both sectors suffer from chronic under-financing, which results in an insufficient quality of services. The country's fiscal situation in the medium-term is going to be difficult, so efficiency-oriented reforms need to be implemented in health care and especially in education in order to sustain the development of these critical services in Kyrgyzstan.
Authored by: Roman Mogilevsky
Published in 2011
The report evaluates progress achieved in implementation of structural reforms of the transport sector in Azerbaijan in the following subsectors: railways, road transport and roads, air transport and airports, maritime transport and ports. It presents standardized and qualitative indicators that assess the level of the transport sector reforms in three areas: 1) commercialization and privatization, 2) tariff policy, and 3) institutional and regulatory changes. The aggregated index is calculated on the basis of the 21 indicators that reflects the status of the reforms in each sector at a period under review.
Written by Irina Tochitskaya. Published in April 2012.
See more on our website: http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/57629
This paper explores the effects that the global financial crisis of 2008 - 2010 had on the funding and performance of the healthcare and education sectors in the Russian Federation (RF). Both education and healthcare expenditures increased in terms of total general government (GG) spending relative to GDP, partly as a result of reduced GDP. The crisis induced further centralization by increasing both the role of the federal budget in funding social services and the dependence of regions on federal transfers, but it did not result in enhanced resource allocation or more effective public spending. By revealing the inefficiencies that accumulated in education and healthcare financing and management throughout the 2000s, the crisis exposed acute funding shortages in contrast to the government's stated goals and an urgent need for reform in these sectors. The impact of the financial crisis on the delivery of education and health services appeared to be delayed and was mitigated by the resources accumulated during the pre-crisis boom. The paper concludes with several recommendations for the RF public service sector concerning improvements in the inter-governmental transfer system through increasing transparency and introducing performance-oriented budgeting.
Authored by: Irina Sinitsina
Published in 2011
This study analysed the factors which facilitated or discouraged potential beneficiaries, e.g. tourism organizations and tourism SMEs, local stakeholders and businesses to apply for support from the European Union Structural Funds for tourism development at local and regional level. In the current recession it was important to attract as many applicants as possible. Through a wide-ranging literature review, case studies, questionnaires and interviews, the research study tried to answer questions about Romania’s modest success in attracting funds from the European Union structural funds to sustain its declining tourism sector.
Il Regional Competitiveness Index, Indice di Competitività Regionale, è stato sviluppato dalla Commissione Europea (sulla base del già sperimentato Global Competitiveness Index introdotto dal World Economic Forum) per misurare i punti di forza e debolezza di ogni singola regione della Unione Europea.
The paper deals with the impact of the global financial crisis on public service delivery - mainly education and healthcare - in Belarus. The pre-crisis period of 2003-2008 was the most prosperous in recent history. These trends resulted in a pretty good fiscal performance. Nevertheless, the share of expenditures on education and healthcare in GDP was decreasing during the 2000s, which was a consequence of demographic trends and a number of reforms in these sectors. The global crisis hurt the Belarusian economy considerably. However, macro-indicators of the Belarusian economy looked pretty good in comparison to other countries, and the deterioration of public finance was limited. Thus, expenditures on both education and healthcare were mainly part of long-term trends and were able to avoid shock adjustments during the crisis. However, there are a number of medium and long-term threats to these public service sectors associated with the crisis agenda. This paper provides a number of policy recommendations to stave off these threats.
Purpose: This paper tries to identify the wage gap between informal and formal workers and tests for the two-tier structure of the informal labour market in Poland.
Design/methodology/approach: I employ the propensity score matching (PSM) technique and use data from the Polish Labour Force Survey (LFS) for the period 2009–2017 to estimate the wage gap between informal and formal workers, both at the means and along the wage distribution. I use two definitions of informal employment: a) employment without a written agreement and b) employment while officially registered as unemployed at a labour office. In order to reduce the bias resulting from the non-random selection of
individuals into informal employment, I use a rich set of control variables representing several individual characteristics.
Findings: After controlling for observed heterogeneity, I find that on average informal workers earn less than formal workers, both in terms of monthly earnings and hourly wage. This result is not sensitive to the definition of informal employment used and is
stable over the analysed time period (2009–2017). However, the wage penalty to informal employment is substantially higher for individuals at the bottom of the wage distribution, which supports the hypothesis of the two-tier structure of the informal labour market in Poland.
Originality/value: The main contribution of this study is that it identifies the two-tier structure of the informal labour market in Poland: informal workers in the first quartile of the wage distribution and those above the first quartile appear to be in two partially different segments of the labour market.
The paper builds predictive scenarios for the agricultural sector of eleven Mediterranean countries (Med 11), namely Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestine, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey. First, it assesses the performance trends of the Med 11 agricultural sector with a focus on production, consumption and trade patterns, incentives, trade protection policies and trade relations with the EU and productivity dynamics and their determinants. Secondly, it presents four scenarios based on the main value chains of the agriculture sector of Med 11: animal products, fruits and vegetables, sugar and edible oil, cereals and fish and other sea products. The four scenarios are: business as usual, Mediterranean One global Player, the Euro Mediterranean Area under threat and the EU and Med 11 as Regional Player.
Written by Saad Belghazi. Published in August 2012.
PDF available on our website at: http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/57764
This paper provides an overview of public expenditures on education and healthcare in Belarus, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Ukraine and some other countries of the former Soviet Union before and during the global financial crisis. Before the crisis, the governments of these countries were substantially increasing spending on education and health. The crisis adversely affected the FSU countries and worsened their fiscal situation. The analysis indicates that during the crisis, despite the fiscal constraints, public education and health expenditures have mostly been maintained or increased in almost all of these countries. However, the crisis situation was not taken as an opportunity to address these countries' key education and healthcare problems related to demographic changes, insufficient per capita expenditure levels, the low efficiency of public spending and the insufficient quality of services. These issues form an ambitious reform agenda for these countries in the medium- and long-term.
Authored by: Alexander Chubrik, Marek Dabrowski, Roman Mogilevsky, Irina Sinitsina
Published in 2011
The paper aims at assessing the specific impact of shallow versus deep integration between Mediterranean (MED) countries and their partners in the European Union (EU) as well as between the MED countries themselves. It relies on dataset developed for this project concerning tariffs (as a proxy for shallow integration) and Non Tariff Measures (NTMs) (as a proxy for deep integration). Additional data are also included in order to take into account other trade costs, especially transport costs and logistics costs. In this regard, an original dataset of maritime freight cost (Maersk, 2007) is introduced as well as the trade logistics performance (TLP) index produced by the World Bank. Such datasets are useful for providing additional insight into deep integration.
Finally the study shows that there is a huge potential for enhancing trade amongst MED countries if trade costs are lowered, logistics is improved, and NTMs are abolished.
Authored by: Ahmed Ghoneim, Javier Lopez Gonzalez, Maximiliano Mendez Parra, Nicolas Peridy
Published in 2011
The current fiscal imbalances and fragilities in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMC) are the result of decades of instability, but have become more visible since 2008, when a combination of adverse economic and political shocks (the global and European financial crises, Arab Spring) hit the region. In an environment of slower growth and higher public expenditure pressures, fiscal deficits and public debts have increased rapidly. This has led to the deterioration of current accounts, a depletion of official reserves, the depreciation of some currencies and higher inflationary pressure.
To avoid the danger of public debt and a balance-of-payment crisis, comprehensive economic reforms, including fiscal adjustment, are urgently needed. These reforms should involve eliminating energy and food subsidies and replacing them with targeted social assistance, reducing the oversized public administration and privatizing public sector enterprises, improving the business climate, increasing trade and investment openness, and sector diversification. The SEMC may also benefit from a peace dividend if the numerous internal and regional conflicts are resolved.
However, the success of economic reforms will depend on the results of the political transition, i.e., the ability to build stable democratic regimes which can resist populist temptations and rally political support for more rational economic policies.
Authored by: Marek Dąbrowski
Published in 2014
The paper aims to assess the impact of selected elements of social harmonization on labor market performance in the European Union among two groups of workers—the total working population and the elderly. The aim is to examine whether upward changes in labor taxes affect employment, unemployment, and inactivity rates in the European Union.
Until the early 1990s, the discussions on fiscal policy primarily centered on the functions of economic stabilization, income redistribution and resource allocation. Long-term growth was not usually viewed as an end itself, and fiscal policy was often not sufficiently tailored to the different circumstances and priorities of countries at different stages of development. It is only relatively recently that the discussion has gradually focused on the links between different dimensions of quality of public finances and economic growth.
Based on the conceptual framework for linking the quality of public finances and economic growth that has been developed by the European Commission and applied to the EU Member States, this study examines the conditions under which the budgetary policy, and more specifically expenditure, revenue and financing design would be supportive of growth in the Mediterranean partner countries of the European Union. The study also highlights some of the interlinkages between fiscal policy and growth and summarises empirical findings found in the literature with particular focus on Mediterranean partner countries of the European Union.
The study concludes by highlighting possible areas in the planning and execution of fiscal policy and governance where growth enhancing interventions can be applied.
Authored by: Leonor Coutinho, Luc De Wulf, Santiago Florez, Cyrus Sassanpour
Published in 2010
Despite its many advantages, the Eastern and Southern Mediterranean region remains relatively backward in economic and social terms and is rightly considered a potential source of social and political instability. Its average GDP per capita lags behind the global average and is increasing slowly due to weak economic policies, poor governance and rapid population growth. The region suffers from high unemployment (especially among women and youth), poor education, high levels of income inequality, gender discrimination, underdeveloped infrastructure, continuous trade protectionism, and a poor business climate. To overcome these development obstacles, MED countries should conduct comprehensive reforms of their economic, social and political systems with the aim of ensuring macroeconomic stability, increasing trade and investment openness, improving the business climate and governance system, and upgrading infrastructure and human capital.
The main economic and political partners of the MED countries, especially the EU, can actively support this modernization agenda through liberalizing trade in some sensitive sectors (like agriculture and services), adopting a more flexible approach to MED labor migration, and cooperating in mitigating climate changes, improving educational outcomes, and promoting science and culture. This will require renewed initiatives with dedicated technical assistance and continued and enhanced financial assistance, particularly to improve infrastructure. There is also a lot of room for improvement in intra-MED cooperation but this requires resolving the protracted political conflicts in the region and taking bolder steps to remove trade and investment barriers.
Written by Marek Dąbrowski and Luc De Wulf. Published in January 2013.
PDF available on our website: http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/57925
In the report, the authors present an insight of the socio-economic drivers of economic and noneconomic activity of persons 50+, as well as their ability to adopt to SET. Not only the labour market participation, but also social engagement, beliefs, education, religious activities and housework are studied. With the use of European Social Survey data they investigate the general level of the activity among people aged 50+ in Europe as well as the relation between various aspects of activity and general labour market performance. They obtain mixed results on the concomitance of non-market and labour-market activities. At the same time they check the role of personal traits as well as pull and push factors on prematurely leaving labour market in European countries. The differences among countries in terms of the results are confronted with the institutional characteristics of the countries. Finally, selected case studies of successful activation policies are presented.
The report was released within a project NEUJOBS- “The Impact of Service Sector Innovation and Internationalisation on Growth and Productivity”, funded by the European Commission, Research Directorate General as part of the 7th Framework Programme.
Written by Izabela Styczynska, Maciej Lis, Aart Jan Riekhoff and Agnieszka Kaminska. Published in October 2013.
PDF available on our website at: http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/58346
The aim of this paper is to examine the issues of gender disparities in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) region, with a special focus given to countries covered by the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP). The analysis is conducted in several dimensions: labour participation, economic opportunity, political empowerment, educational attainment, and health and demography. Beside the comparative study of "in region differentials" done for the CIS, I analyze the trends in gender disparities in comparison to EU-12 and EU-15, using data for the period 1985-2005.
The study confirms the existence of slightly different paths in which gender disparities have evolved over time. While in EU-15 women participation in labour market, their remuneration, and position in public life have significantly increased, in majority of the CIS countries a gradual decrease of female labour activity was reported. In addition female representation in politics and public life has shrunken after and during the transition period. On the other hand in such fields as secondary and tertiary education attainment, health, and demography male population in the CIS region has became more disadvantaged, which also leads to enlarging gender gap.
Authored by: Magdalena Rokicka
Published in 2008
This report presents the methodology for the construction of the Financial Stress Index (FSI) and the Economic Sensitivity Index (ESI) and investigates the economic situation in twelve Central and East European Countries (CEECs) between 2001 and 2012. The objective of this paper was to capture key features of financial and economic vulnerability and examine the co-movement of economic turmoil and financial disturbances that strongly affected the CEECs in the last decade. The main finding is that the FSI can be used as a leading indicator and can be used to recognize changing trends in the index. A shift in the value of the index proves that EU accession has a positive, but minor influence on financial stability in the CEECs. On the other hand, the impact of the introduction of the euro in Estonia, Slovakia and Slovenia is ambiguous.
For most of the countries in our sample, the FSI started to grow rapidly in 2007, reaching its peak around the third quarter of 2008. Consequently, financial stress remained high for a few quarters and started to fall gradually. For a number of countries, we observe higher financial stress in the latest period of our analysis, i.e. 2010-2012. However, the value of the FSI was significantly lower than three years earlier.
The results show that indices might be helpful in predicting future recessions. Consequently, the model will be expanded by adding a forecasting module, the launch of which is planned for April 2014.
Written by Maciej Krzak and Grzegorz Poniatowski. Published in January 2014
PDF available on our website at: http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/58411
This paper analyses the public finance performance and the dynamics of government expenditures on education and health in the Kyrgyz Republic in 2007-2010, when the country was hit by the global economic crisis and then by an internal political crisis in 2010. Despite these crisis conditions, public health expenditures have increased substantially. In education, recurrent expenditures have been protected, while capital investments have been cut dramatically. Both sectors suffer from chronic under-financing, which results in an insufficient quality of services. The country's fiscal situation in the medium-term is going to be difficult, so efficiency-oriented reforms need to be implemented in health care and especially in education in order to sustain the development of these critical services in Kyrgyzstan.
Authored by: Roman Mogilevsky
Published in 2011
The report evaluates progress achieved in implementation of structural reforms of the transport sector in Azerbaijan in the following subsectors: railways, road transport and roads, air transport and airports, maritime transport and ports. It presents standardized and qualitative indicators that assess the level of the transport sector reforms in three areas: 1) commercialization and privatization, 2) tariff policy, and 3) institutional and regulatory changes. The aggregated index is calculated on the basis of the 21 indicators that reflects the status of the reforms in each sector at a period under review.
Written by Irina Tochitskaya. Published in April 2012.
See more on our website: http://www.case-research.eu/en/node/57629
This paper explores the effects that the global financial crisis of 2008 - 2010 had on the funding and performance of the healthcare and education sectors in the Russian Federation (RF). Both education and healthcare expenditures increased in terms of total general government (GG) spending relative to GDP, partly as a result of reduced GDP. The crisis induced further centralization by increasing both the role of the federal budget in funding social services and the dependence of regions on federal transfers, but it did not result in enhanced resource allocation or more effective public spending. By revealing the inefficiencies that accumulated in education and healthcare financing and management throughout the 2000s, the crisis exposed acute funding shortages in contrast to the government's stated goals and an urgent need for reform in these sectors. The impact of the financial crisis on the delivery of education and health services appeared to be delayed and was mitigated by the resources accumulated during the pre-crisis boom. The paper concludes with several recommendations for the RF public service sector concerning improvements in the inter-governmental transfer system through increasing transparency and introducing performance-oriented budgeting.
Authored by: Irina Sinitsina
Published in 2011
This study analysed the factors which facilitated or discouraged potential beneficiaries, e.g. tourism organizations and tourism SMEs, local stakeholders and businesses to apply for support from the European Union Structural Funds for tourism development at local and regional level. In the current recession it was important to attract as many applicants as possible. Through a wide-ranging literature review, case studies, questionnaires and interviews, the research study tried to answer questions about Romania’s modest success in attracting funds from the European Union structural funds to sustain its declining tourism sector.
Il Regional Competitiveness Index, Indice di Competitività Regionale, è stato sviluppato dalla Commissione Europea (sulla base del già sperimentato Global Competitiveness Index introdotto dal World Economic Forum) per misurare i punti di forza e debolezza di ogni singola regione della Unione Europea.
The paper deals with the impact of the global financial crisis on public service delivery - mainly education and healthcare - in Belarus. The pre-crisis period of 2003-2008 was the most prosperous in recent history. These trends resulted in a pretty good fiscal performance. Nevertheless, the share of expenditures on education and healthcare in GDP was decreasing during the 2000s, which was a consequence of demographic trends and a number of reforms in these sectors. The global crisis hurt the Belarusian economy considerably. However, macro-indicators of the Belarusian economy looked pretty good in comparison to other countries, and the deterioration of public finance was limited. Thus, expenditures on both education and healthcare were mainly part of long-term trends and were able to avoid shock adjustments during the crisis. However, there are a number of medium and long-term threats to these public service sectors associated with the crisis agenda. This paper provides a number of policy recommendations to stave off these threats.
Purpose: This paper tries to identify the wage gap between informal and formal workers and tests for the two-tier structure of the informal labour market in Poland.
Design/methodology/approach: I employ the propensity score matching (PSM) technique and use data from the Polish Labour Force Survey (LFS) for the period 2009–2017 to estimate the wage gap between informal and formal workers, both at the means and along the wage distribution. I use two definitions of informal employment: a) employment without a written agreement and b) employment while officially registered as unemployed at a labour office. In order to reduce the bias resulting from the non-random selection of
individuals into informal employment, I use a rich set of control variables representing several individual characteristics.
Findings: After controlling for observed heterogeneity, I find that on average informal workers earn less than formal workers, both in terms of monthly earnings and hourly wage. This result is not sensitive to the definition of informal employment used and is
stable over the analysed time period (2009–2017). However, the wage penalty to informal employment is substantially higher for individuals at the bottom of the wage distribution, which supports the hypothesis of the two-tier structure of the informal labour market in Poland.
Originality/value: The main contribution of this study is that it identifies the two-tier structure of the informal labour market in Poland: informal workers in the first quartile of the wage distribution and those above the first quartile appear to be in two partially different segments of the labour market.
Similar to CASE Network Studies and Analyses 463 - Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Partner Countries. Country report: Georgia
This Report is one of six studies in the first phase of the EU project on “Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Partner Countries.” It aims to provide an informed view on the potential for increased migration flows and their consequences as a result of possible changes in the migration policies of the European Union with regard to Moldova. Since Moldova’s Declaration of Independence in 1990, migration has transformed the country in ways that were impossible to predict. With over a quarter of its labour force now working abroad (a full ten percent of its population), Moldova has become the epitome of a migration-dependent country, with all the costs and benefits associated with this definition. Remittances are as high as one-third of national income, and have helped the country raise its living standards and fuel investment in housing and small businesses. Yet there have also been costs to the large migratory flows, ranging from effects on the macroeconomy to the disruption of social life. All in all, migration has been good for Moldova. This complex socio-economic phenomenon now appears to have stabilized. Further gains for Moldova and its partner countries could be achieved when new agreements are implemented and the institutions dealing with the planning of migration and protection of migrants are strengthened.
Authored by: Georgeta Mincu, Vasile Cantarji
Published in 2013
[En] More Yo-yos pendulums ... Empirica STAR Report Yann Gourvennec
The Empirirca 2003 report is sadly missed. This is in my eyes the only report which made it possible for one to understand what klind of diversity there is behind telecommuting...
I found this report in my archives and uploaded it here before it got lost again
Demographic change (driven by the second demographic transition) led to an uncontrolled increase in scale of various social expenditure in the OECD area, especially in continental Europe. Costs of social transfers created fiscal pressure leading to the necessity of tax increases all over Europe, including the New Member States. Employment consequences of emerging higher tax wedge has become the topic of large body of research. However, surprisingly little evidence is known on distribution of that problem across workers. Is the effect of high tax wedge equally spread or certain groups of workers suffer more than others? More specifically, are low productivity workers exposed more to the problems caused by high tax wedge?
Authored by: Marek Gora, Artur Radziwill, Agnieszka Sowa, Mateusz Walewski
Published in 2006
The paper analyses the relationship between labour costs and employment development in manufacturing industry in Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary. It indicates the need for thorough labour cost analysis in Europe in the context low employment rates among New Member States. The steps taken within the framework of the EU's common employment policy emphasise the crucial role of labour costsin enhancing labour demand.
The question raised in this paper is whether the cost of hiring labour is a significant determinant of employment in Polish, Czech and Hungarian manufacturing and is considered in terms of both relative (unit labour costs) and absolute (labour costs per one employee) measures. The study examines the labour costemployment relationship aiming to find out whether it differs significantly between the three countries and between commodity groups in manufacturing industry within each country.
Authored by: Agnieszka Furmanska-Maruszak
Published in 2006
The paper discusses the issue of labor force mobility in a broad sense, and analyses how changes in social security policy and the structure of the social safety net (SSN) affects different aspects of labor force mobility. The text is structured as follows: Introduction, then follows Chapter 2, which provides an overview of the labor market and social safety net developments in Russian and Ukraine over the last decade, as well as discusses common features of these countries. The Chapter 3 establishes theoretical models for different aspects of labor force mobility, discusses the availability of data on Russia and Ukraine to test these models, and provides a statistical analysis of the data. The Chapter 4 discusses results of the statistical analysis. The final chapter discusses policy conclusions that can be derived from comparison of the effect of the SSN on labor mobility in these two countries, and extends them to all countries in transition.
Authored by: Marek Gora, Oleksander Rohozynsky
Published in 2009
Current report aims to identify major existing gaps in the four socio-economic dimensions (economic, human, environmental, and institutional) and to reveal those gaps which could potentially hinder social and economic integration of neighbor states with the EU. To achieve this, the authors aim to assess the existing trends in the size of the gaps across countries and problem areas, taking into consideration the specific origin of the gap between EU15/EU12, on the one hand, and FSU republics, EU candidates and West Balkan countries, on the other hand.
Authored by: Alexander Chubrik, Irina Denisova, Vladimir Dubrovskiy, Marina Kartseva, Irina Makenbaeva, Magdalena Rokicka, Irina Sinitsina, Michael Tokmazishvili
Published in 2007
In this paper the author presents a general assessment of the labour market situation of older workers in the Czech Republic, starting with a more general overview of the demographic situation and emphasizing the generational differences among the young-old and older cohorts, underlying a number of different problems as well as solutions. Further in the paper she addresses the impact of the recent economic situation on employment levels, showing that the recovery in terms of employment has not yet begun and that the impact on older workers is (at least) two-fold: firstly, for older workers it is very difficult to find a new job once unemployed; secondly, if employed, the pressure on workability and the increasing demands of workplaces may be harder to bear for the older the worker. She describes a National Action Plan Supporting Positive Ageing (2013-2017) and other examples of good and transferable praxes which address some of the active ageing issues in an innovative way.
The second part of this report examines the issues of employability, workability and age-management as perceived by some of the key actors. The report goes into greater detail on the topic of paid work after retirement, which is considered an important part of the Czech economy, despite the fact that the employment of sizable groups of older workers after retirement is undeclared. Self-entrepreneurship and independent work in later life are another realm of employment that is increasing in importance in the Czech economy; however, as consulted experts argue, it is not to be taken as an unproblematic solution to late-life careers. In the last chapter the author turns her attention to the lifelong learning of older workers and to their up-skilling/retraining. In the concluding remarks, she reemphasizes the need to address the heterogeneity of the older workforce, in the sense of age/generational affiliation, health, socio-economic and other characteristics.
Authored by: Lucie Vidovicova
Published in 2014
In the last decade, advanced economies, including the euro area, experienced deflationary pressures caused by the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and the anti-crisis policies that followed—in particular, the new financial regulations (which led to a deep decline in the money multiplier). However, there are numerous signs in both the real and financial spheres that these pressures are disappearing. The largest advanced economies are growing up to their potential, unemployment is systematically decreasing, the financial sector is more eager to lend, and its clients—to borrow. Rapidly growing asset prices signal the possibility of similar developments in other segments of the economy. In this new macroeconomic environment, central banks should cease unconventional monetary policies and prepare themselves to head off potential inflationary pressures.
During the last two decades the CIS countries have received very significant amounts of technical assistance from international development organizations and bilateral donors. While this has played a positive and important role in the transformation of these societies, practically all stakeholders currently share the opinion that many problems have accumulated in the area of technical cooperation with CIS countries. This paper intends to outline these problems, analyze their underlying reasons - including the changing environment for technical cooperation in the CIS - and the interaction of the interests of beneficiaries, donors and providers in the process of implementing technical cooperation projects. The analysis suggests that a good understanding, recognition and coordination of the interests of all TC stakeholders and a reduction in the information gap between the various participants in the technical cooperation process are necessary for improving the effectiveness of technical cooperation.
Authored by: Aziz Atamanov, Roman Mogilevsky
Published in 2008
This study analyzes the progress in information and communication technologies (ICT) in eleven MED countries and how they compare to the rest of the world in terms of sector's sophistication and development. In recent years, most countries of this region opened up their markets for multiple players, greatly enhancing competition and increasing the number and quality of services. However, compared with the rest of the world, the region has still lagged behind. Yet this could change fairly rapidly as more countries adopt liberalization polices and good governance that would attract FDI and expand the markets. Being a laggard may actually avail some benefits, as countries adopt best practices and learn from the pitfalls of earlier liberalizers!
Compared to other regions, generally MED countries rank below the Americas and Europe in terms of cellular, fixed and Internet adoption rates. However, they rank above Africa across all services and above Asia/Pacific in cellular and Internet services penetration.
Looking ahead, the paper analyzes three scenarios for the coming 20 years; pessimistic, steady state and optimistic. There are a number of key factors that would drive these various scenarios and their illustrative outcomes, such as the investment climate, regulatory institutions (this includes the rule of law, judiciary, transparency and fairness) and the government openness to participation of citizens in public affairs.
Authored by: Jawad Abbassi
Published in 2011
The main purpose of this study is to determine what are the main factors which stand behind the diversity in performance of business services measured by their contribution to growth in the EU Member States. We show that in addition to typical growth factors which enhance labour productivity, also the extent of interconnectedness of business services with upstream industries is important to explain service-based economic growth.
The analysis yields two interesting results. Firstly, the authors show that patterns of industrial interconnectedness of business services are considerably diversified across the EU Member States indicating large differences in the integration of services as supplier with other sectors on a country level. Secondly they show that the diversified growth performance of business services across the EU25 countries can be explained by differences in labour productivity and differences in forward linkages.
The results indicate the fundamental role of business services as the main engine of growth in the European economy. This service-based growth is channelled mainly through increases in labour productivity and forward interconnectedness of services with downstream industries.
On the policy making level the results indicate that investment in human and intangible capital are crucial for the service-dominated economy as they not only enhance economic growth inside knowledge intensive services but also facilitate transmission of growth impulses to downstream industries by increasing diffusion and integration of services as suppliers of high value added inputs to the economy.
Authored by: Maciej Sobolewski, Grzegorz Poniatowski
Published in 2013
This paper analyzes the costs of (partial) institutional harmonization with the EU acquis which countries of the former USSR are expected to conduct under their Partnership and Cooperation Agreements with the EU and European Neighborhood Policy Action Plans. The public sector will have to take an effort of the transposition and adaptation of EU norms, as well as ensuring that they are complied with. Yet, the major part of the adjustment costs will fall on the private sector, as enterprises will have to make substantial investments to comply with new product requirements and business practices.
In this study we used the method of extrapolation of average costs for CEE countries’ harmonization with acquis to estimate the potential harmonization costs for the neighboring countries based on internationally comparative macroeconomic indicators like sectoral and total value added. This involved estimating the EU pre-accession support for the CEE countries by main areas as a percentage of the total or sectoral value added, determining the expected degree of limited harmonization in the ENP countries and estimating “coefficients of limited harmonization”, which was subsequently used for adjustment of the estimated cost of full harmonization.
Authored by: Veliko Dmitrov
201312 World of work Report. Repariring the Economic and Social FabricFrancisco Calzado
Similar to CASE Network Studies and Analyses 463 - Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Partner Countries. Country report: Georgia (18)
The report examines the social and economic drivers and impact of circular migration between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. The core question the authors sought to address was how managing circular migration could, in the long term, help to optimise labour resources in both the country of origin and the destination countries. In the pages that follow, the authors of the report present the current and forecasted labour market and demographic situation in their respective countries as well as the dynamics and characteristics of short-term labour migration flows between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic, concentrating on the period since 2010. They also outline and discuss related policy responses and evaluate prospects for cooperation on circular migration.
Podręcznik został opracowany w celu przekazania trenerom i nauczycielom podstawowej wiedzy, która może być przydatna w prowadzeniu szkoleń promujących pracę rejestrowaną. Prezentuje on z jednej strony korzyści z pracy rejestrowanej, z drugiej – potencjalne koszty związane z pracą nierejestrowaną. W pierwszej kolejności informacje te przedstawiono w odniesieniu do pracowników najemnych (rozdział 2), podkreślając w sposób szczególny to, że negatywne konsekwencje pracy nierejestrowanej są ponoszone przez całe życie. Ze względu na specyficzną sytuację cudzoziemców pracujących w Polsce konsekwencje ponoszone przez tę grupę opisano oddzielnie (rozdział 3). Ponadto zaprezentowano skutki dotyczące pracodawców z szarej strefy z wyodrębnieniem tych, którzy zatrudniają cudzoziemców (rozdział 4). Uzupełnieniem przedstawionych informacji jest opis działań podejmowanych przez państwo w celu ograniczenia zjawiska pracy nierejestrowanej w Polsce (rozdział 5) oraz prowadzonych w Wielkiej Brytanii, czyli w kraju będącym liderem w walce z szarą strefą (rozdział 6).
European countries face a challenge related to the economic and social consequences of their societies’ aging. Specifically, pension systems must adjust to the coming changes, maintaining both financial stability, connected with equalizing inflows from premiums and spending on pensions, and simultaneously the sufficiency of benefits, protecting retirees against poverty and smoothing consumption over their lives, i.e. ensuring the ability to pay for consumption needs at each stage of life, regardless of income from labor.
One of the key instruments applied toward these goals is the retirement age. Formally it is a legally established boundary: once people have crossed it – on average – they significantly lose their ability to perform work (the so-called old-age risk). But since the 1970s, in many developed countries the retirement age has become an instrument of social and labor-market policy. Specifically, in the 1970s and ‘80s, an early retirement age was perceived as a solution allowing a reduction in the supply of labor, particularly among people with relatively low competencies who were approaching retirement age, which is called the lump of labor fallacy. It was often believed that people taking early retirement freed up jobs for the young. But a range of economic evidence shows that the number of jobs is not fixed, and those who retire don’t in fact free up jobs. On the contrary, because of higher spending by pension systems, labor costs rise, which limits the supply of jobs. In general, a good situation on the labor market supports employment of both the youngest and the oldest labor force participants. Additionally, a lower retirement age for women was maintained, which resulted to a high degree from cultural conditions and norms that are typical for traditional societies.
Until now, the banking sector has been one of the strong points of Poland’s economy. In contrast to banks in the U.S. and leading Western European economies, lenders in Poland came through the 2008 global financial crisis without a scratch, without needing state financial support. But in recent years the industry’s problems have been growing, creating a threat to economic growth and gains in living standards.
For an economy’s productivity to increase, funds can’t go to all companies evenly, and definitely shouldn’t go to those that are most lacking in funds, but to those that will use them most efficiently. This is true of total external financing, and thus funding both from the banking sector and from parabanks, the capital market and funds from public institutions. In Poland, in light of the relatively modest scale of the capital market, banks play a clearly dominant role in external financing of companies. This is why the author of this text focuses on the bank credit allocation efficiency.
The author points out that in the very near future, conditions will emerge in Poland which – as the experience of other countries shows – create a risk of reduced efficiency of credit allocation to business. Additionally, in Poland today, bank lending to companies is to a high degree being replaced by funds from state aid, which reduces the efficiency of allocation of external funds to companies (both loans and subsidies), as allocation of government subsidies is not usually based on efficiency. This decline in external financing allocation efficiency may slow, halt or even reverse the process, that has been uninterrupted for 28 years, of Poland’s convergence, i.e. the narrowing of the gap in living standards between Poland and the West.
The economic characteristics of the COVID-19 crisis differ from those of previous crises. It is a combination of demand- and supply-side constraints which led to the formation of a monetary overhang that will be unfrozen once the pandemic ends. Monetary policy must take this effect into consideration, along with other pro-inflationary factors, in the post-pandemic era. It must also think in advance about how to avoid a policy trap coming from fiscal dominance.
This paper is organized as follows: Chapter 2 deals with the economic characteristics of the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the effectiveness of the monetary policy response measures undertaken. In Chapter 3, we analyse the monetary policy decisions of the ECB (and other major CBs for comparison) and their effectiveness in achieving the declared policy goals in the short term. Chapter 4 is devoted to an analysis of the policy challenges which may be faced by the ECB and other major CBs once the pandemic emergency comes to its end. Chapter 5 contains a summary and the conclusions of our analysis.
The rule of law, by securing civil and economic rights, directly contributes to social prosperity and is one of our societies’ greatest achievements. In the European Union (EU), the rule of law is enshrined in the Treaties of its founding and is recognised not just as a necessary condition of a liberal democratic society, but also as an important requirement for a stable, effective, and sustainable market economy. In fact, it was the stability and equality of opportunity provided by the rule of law that enabled the post-war Wirtschaftswunder in Germany and the post-Communist resuscitation of the economy in Poland.
But the rule of law is a living concept that is constantly evolving – both in its formal, de jure dimension, embodied in legislation, and its de facto dimension, or its reception by society. In Poland, in particular, according to the EU, the rule of law has been heavily challenged by government since 2015 and has evolved amid continued pressure exerted on the institutions which execute laws. More recently, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic transformed the perception of the rule of law and its boundaries throughout the EU and beyond (Marzocchi, 2020).
This Study contains Value Added Tax (VAT) Gap estimates for 2018, fast estimates using a simplified methodology for 2019, the year immediately preceding the analysis, and includes revised estimates for 2014-2017. It also includes the updated and extended results of the econometric analysis of VAT Gap determinants initiated and initially reported in the 2018 Report (Poniatowski et al., 2018). As a novelty, the econometric analysis to forecast potential impacts of the coronavirus crisis and resulting recession on the evolution of the VAT Gap in 2020 is reported.
In 2018, most European Union (EU) Member States (MS) saw a slight decrease in the pace of gross domestic product (GDP) growth, but the economic conditions for increasing tax compliance remained favourable. We estimate that the VAT total tax liability (VTTL) in 2018 increased by 3.6 percent whereas VAT revenue increased by 4.2 percent, leading to a decline in the VAT Gap in both relative and nominal terms. In relative terms, the EU-wide Gap dropped to 11 percent and EUR 140 billion. Fast estimates show that the VAT Gap will likely continue to decline in 2019.
Of the EU-28, the smallest Gaps were observed in Sweden (0.7 percent), Croatia (3.5 percent), and Finland (3.6 percent), the largest – in Romania (33.8 percent), Greece (30.1 percent), and Lithuania (25.9 percent). Overall, half of the EU-28 MS recorded a Gap above 9.2 percent. In nominal terms, the largest Gaps were recorded in Italy (EUR 35.4 billion), the United Kingdom (EUR 23.5 billion), and Germany (EUR 22 billion).
The euro is the second most important global currency after the US dollar. However, its international role has not increased since its inception in 1999. The private sector prefers using the US dollar rather than the euro because the financial market for US dollar-denominated assets is larger and deeper; network externalities and inertia also play a role. Increasing the attractiveness of the euro outside the euro area requires, among others, a proactive role for the European Central Bank and completing the Banking Union and Capital Market Union.
Forecasting during a strong shock is burdened with exceptionally high uncertainty. This gives rise to the temptation to formulate alarmist forecasts. Experiences from earlier pandemics, particularly those from the 20th century, for which we have the most data, don’t provide a basis for this. The mildest of them weakened growth by less than 1 percentage point, and the worst, the Spanish Flu, by 6 percentage points. Still, even the Spanish Flu never caused losses on the order of 20% of GDP – not even where it turned out to be a humanitarian disaster, costing the lives of 3-5% of the population. History suggests that if pandemics lead to such deep losses at all, it’s only in particular quarters and not over a whole year, as economic activity rebounds. The strength of that rebound is largely determined by economic policy. The purpose of this work is to describe possible scenarios for a rebound in Polish economic growth after the epidemic.
A separate issue, no less important, is what world will emerge from the current crisis. In the face of the 2008 financial crisis, White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel said: “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. And what I mean by that is an opportunity to do things that you think you could not do before.” Such changes can make the economy and society function better than before the crisis. Unfortunately, the opportunities created by the global financial crisis were squandered. Today’s task is more difficult; the scale of various problems has expanded even more. Without deep structural and institutional changes, the world will be facing enduring social and economic problems, accompanied by long-term stagnation.
"Many brilliant prophecies have appeared for the future of the EU and our entire planet. I believe that Europe, in its own style, will draw pragmatic conclusions from the crisis, not revolutionary ones; conclusions that will allow us to continue enjoying a Europe without borders. Brussels will demonstrate its usefulness; it will react ably and flexibly. First of all, contrary to the deceitful statements of members of the Polish government, the EU warned of the threats already in 2021. Secondly, already in mid-March EU assistance programs were ready, i.e. earlier than the PiS government’s “shield” program. The conclusion from the crisis will be a strengthening of all the preventive mechanisms that allow us to recognize threats and react in time of need. Research programs will be more strongly directed toward diagnosing and treating infectious diseases. Europe will gain greater self-sufficiency in the area of medical equipment and drugs, and the EU – greater competencies in the area of the health service, thus far entrusted to the member states. The 2021-27 budget must be reconstructed, to supplement the priority of the Green Deal with economic stimulus programs. In this way structural funds, which have the greatest multiplier effect for investment and the labor market, may return to favor. So once again: an addition, as a conclusion from the crisis, and not a reinvention of the EU," writes Dr. Janusz Lewandowski the author of the 162nd mBank-CASE seminar Proceeding.
Dla wielu rodaków europejskość Polski jest oczywista, trudno jest im nawet wyobrazić sobie, jak kształtowałyby się losy naszego kraju bez uczestnictwa w integracji europejskiej. Szczególnie młode pokolenie traktuje osiągnięty przez nas dzięki uczestnictwie w Unii ogromny postęp cywilizacyjny jako coś danego i naturalnego. Jednak świadomość tego, jaki był nasz punkt wyjścia, jaką przeszliśmy drogę i jak przyczyniły się do tego unijne działania oraz jakie wynikały z tego korzyści powinna nam stale towarzyszyć. Bez tej świadomości, starannego weryfikowania faktów i docenienia naszych osiągnięć grozi nam uleganie niesprawdzonym argumentom przeciwników integracji europejskiej i popełnienie nieodwracalnych błędów. Dla tych, którzy chcą poznać te fakty, przygotowany został raport "Nasza Europa. 15 lat Polski w Unii Europejskiej". Podjęto w nim ocenę 15 lat członkostwa Polski z perspektywy doświadczeń procesu integracji, z jego barierami i sukcesami, a także wyzwaniami przyszłości.
Raport jest wynikiem pracy zbiorowej licznych ekspertów z różnych dziedzin, od wielu lat analizujących wielowymiarowe efekty działania instytucji UE oraz współpracy z krajami członkowskimi na podstawie europejskich wartości i mechanizmów. Autorzy podsumowują korzyści członkostwa Polski w Unii Europejskiej na podstawie faktów, nie stroniąc jednakże od własnych ocen i refleksji.
This report is the result of the joint work of a number of experts from various fields who have been - for many years – analysing the multidimensional effects of EU institutions and cooperation with Member States pursuant to European values and mechanisms. The authors summarise the benefits of Poland’s membership in the EU based on facts; however, they do not hide their own views and reflections. They also demonstrate the barriers and challenges to further European integration.
This report was prepared by CASE, one of the oldest independent think tanks in Central and Eastern Europe, utilising its nearly 30 years of experience in providing objective analyses and recommendations with respect to socioeconomic topics. It is both an expression of concern about Poland’s future in the EU, as well as the authors’ contribution to the debate on further European integration.
Poland’s new Employee Capital Plans (PPK) scheme, which is mandatory for employers, started to be implemented in July 2019. The article looks at the systemic solutions applied in the programme from the perspective of the concept of the simultaneous reconstruction of the retirement pension system. The aim is to present arguments for and against the project from the point of view of various actors, and to assess the chances of success for the new system. The article offers a detailed study of legal solutions, an analysis of the literature on the subject, and reports of institutions that supervise pension funds. The results of this analysis point to the lack of cohesion between certain solutions of the 1999 pension reform and expose a lack of consistency in how the reform was carried out, which led to the eventual removal of the capital part of the pension system. The study shows that additional saving for old age is advisable in the country’s current demographic situation and necessary for both economic and social reasons. However, the systemic solutions offered by the government appear to be chiefly designated to serve short-term state interests and do not create sufficient incentives for pension plan participants to join the programme.
Belarus was among the few post-communist countries to resign from comprehensive market reforms and attempt to improve the efficiency of the economy through administrative means, leaving market mechanisms only an auxiliary role. Since its inception, the ‘Belarusian economic model’ has undergone several revisions of a de-statisation and de-regulation kind, but still the Belarusian economy remains dominated by the state. This paper analyses the characteristic features of the Belarusian economic system – especially those related to the public sector – as well as its evolution over time during the period following its independence. The paper concludes that during the post-Soviet period, the Belarusian economy evolved from a quasi-Soviet system based on state property, state planning, support to inefficient enterprises and the massive redistribution of funds to a more flexible hybrid model where the public sector still remains the core of the economy. The case of Belarus shows that presently there is no appropriate theoretical perspective which, in an unmodified form, could be applied to study this type of economic system. Therefore, a new perspective based on an already existing but updated approach or a multidisciplinary approach that incorporates the duality of the Belarusian economy is required.
Belarusian economy has been stagnating in 2011-2015 after 15 years of a high annual average growth rate. In 2015, after four years of stagnation, the Belarusian economy slid into a recession, its first since 1996, and experienced both cyclical and structural recessions. Since 2015, the Belarusian government and the National Bank of Belarus have been giving economic reforms a good chance thanks to gradual but consistent actions aimed at maintaining macroeconomic stability and economic liberalization. It seems that the economic authorities have sustained more transformation efforts during 2015-2018 than in the previous 24 years since 1991.
As the relative welfare level in Belarus is currently 64% compared to the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries average, Belarus needs to build stronger fundaments of sustainable growth by continuing and accelerating the implementation of institutional transformation, primarily by fostering elimination of existing administrative mechanisms of inefficient resource allocation. Based on the experience of the CEE countries’ economic transformation, we highlight five lessons for the purpose of the economic reforms that Belarus still faces today: keeping macroeconomic stability, restructuring and improving the governance of state-owned enterprises, developing the financial market, increasing taxation efficiency, and deepening fiscal decentralization.
Inflation in advanced economies is low by historical standards but there is no threat of deflation. Slower economic growth is caused by supply-side constraints rather than low inflation. Below-the-target inflation does not damage the reputation of central banks. Thus, central banks should not try to bring inflation back to the targeted level of 2%. Rather, they should revise the inflation target downwards and publicly explain the rationale for such a move. Risks to the independence of central banks come from their additional mandates (beyond price stability) and populist politics.
Estonia has Europe’s most transparent tax system (while Poland is second-to-last, in 35th place), and is also known for its pioneering approach to taxation of legal persons’ income. Since 2000, payers of Estonian corporate tax don’t pay tax on their profits as long as they don’t realize them. In principle, this approach should make access to capital easier, spark investment by companies and contribute to faster economic growth. Are these and other positive effects really noticeable in Estonia? Have other countries followed in this country’s footsteps? Would deferment of income tax be possible and beneficial for Poland? How would this affect revenue from tax on corporate profits? Would investors come to see Poland as a tax haven? Does the Estonian system limit tax avoidance and evasion, or actually the opposite? Is such a system fair? Are intermediate solutions possible, which would combine the strengths or limit the weaknesses of the classical and Estonian models of profit tax? These questions are discussed in the mBank-CASE seminar Proceeding no. 163, written by Dmitri Jegorov, deputy general secretary of the Estonian Finance Ministry, who directs the country’s tax and customs policy, Dr. Anna Leszczyłowska of the Poznań University of Economics and Business and Aleksander Łożykowski of the Warsaw School of Economics.
The trade war between the U.S. and China began in March 2018. The American side raised import duties on aluminum and steel from China, which were later extended to other countries, including Canada, Mexico and the EU member states. This drew a negative reaction from those countries and bilateral negotiations with the U.S. In June 2018 America, referring to Section 301 of its 1974 Trade Act, raised tariffs to 25% on 818 groups of products imported from China, arguing that the tariff increase was a response to years of theft of American intellectual property and dishonest trade practices, which has caused the U.S. trade deficit.
Will this trade war mean the collapse of the multilateral trading system and a transition to bilateral relationships? What are the possibilities for increasing tariffs in light of World Trade Organization rules? Can the conflict be resolved using the WTO dispute-resolution mechanism? What are the consequences of the trade war for American consumers and producers, and for suppliers from other countries? How high will tariffs climb as a result of a global trade war? How far can trade volumes and GDP fall if the worst-case scenario comes to pass? Professor Jan J. Michałek and Dr. Przemysław Woźniak give answers to these questions in the mBank-CASE Seminar Proceeding No. 161.
This Report has been prepared for the European Commission, DG TAXUD under contract TAXUD/2017/DE/329, “Study and Reports on the VAT Gap in the EU-28 Member States” and serves as a follow-up to the six reports published between 2013 and 2018.
This Study contains new estimates of the Value Added Tax (VAT) Gap for 2017, as well as updated estimates for 2013-2016. As a novelty in this series of reports, so called “fast VAT Gap estimates” are also presented the year immediately preceding the analysis, namely for 2018. In addition, the study reports the results of the econometric analysis of VAT Gap determinants initiated and initially reported in the 2018 Report (Poniatowski et al., 2018). It also scrutinises the Policy Gap in 2017 as well as the contribution that reduced rates and exemptions made to the theoretical VAT revenue losses.
The paper discusses the role of the state in shaping an economic system which is, in line with the welfare economics approach, capable of performing socially important functions and achieving socially desirable results. We describe this system through a set of indexes: the IHDI, the World Happiness Index, and the Satisfaction of Life index. The characteris-tics of the state are analyzed using a set of variables which describe both the quantitative (government size, various types of governmental expenditures, and regulatory burden) and qualitative (institutional setup and property rights protection) aspects of its functioning. The study examines the “old” and “new” member states of the European Union, the post-communist countries of Eastern Europe and Asia, and the economies of Latin America. The main conclusion of the research is that the institutional quality of the state seems to be the most important for creation of a socially effective economic system, while the level of state interventionism plays, at most, a secondary and often negligible role. Geographical differentiation is also discovered, as well as the lack of a direct correlation between the characteristics of an economic system and the subjective feeling of well-being. These re-sults may corroborate the neo-institutionalist hypothesis that noneconomic factors, such as historical, institutional, cultural, and even genetic factors, may play an important role in making the economic system capable to perform its tasks; this remains an area for future research.
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Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...Quotidiano Piemontese
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024
Una ricerca de il Club degli Investitori, in collaborazione con ToTeM Torino Tech Map e con il supporto della ESCP Business School e di Growth Capital
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when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
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The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangeDOT TECH
Yes. Pi network coins can be exchanged but not on bitmart exchange. Because pi network is still in the enclosed mainnet. The only way pioneers are able to trade pi coins is by reselling the pi coins to pi verified merchants.
A verified merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell it to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
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USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
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USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
Latino Buying Power - May 2024 Presentation for Latino CaucusDanay Escanaverino
Unlock the potential of Latino Buying Power with this in-depth SlideShare presentation. Explore how the Latino consumer market is transforming the American economy, driven by their significant buying power, entrepreneurial contributions, and growing influence across various sectors.
**Key Sections Covered:**
1. **Economic Impact:** Understand the profound economic impact of Latino consumers on the U.S. economy. Discover how their increasing purchasing power is fueling growth in key industries and contributing to national economic prosperity.
2. **Buying Power:** Dive into detailed analyses of Latino buying power, including its growth trends, key drivers, and projections for the future. Learn how this influential group’s spending habits are shaping market dynamics and creating opportunities for businesses.
3. **Entrepreneurial Contributions:** Explore the entrepreneurial spirit within the Latino community. Examine how Latino-owned businesses are thriving and contributing to job creation, innovation, and economic diversification.
4. **Workforce Statistics:** Gain insights into the role of Latino workers in the American labor market. Review statistics on employment rates, occupational distribution, and the economic contributions of Latino professionals across various industries.
5. **Media Consumption:** Understand the media consumption habits of Latino audiences. Discover their preferences for digital platforms, television, radio, and social media. Learn how these consumption patterns are influencing advertising strategies and media content.
6. **Education:** Examine the educational achievements and challenges within the Latino community. Review statistics on enrollment, graduation rates, and fields of study. Understand the implications of education on economic mobility and workforce readiness.
7. **Home Ownership:** Explore trends in Latino home ownership. Understand the factors driving home buying decisions, the challenges faced by Latino homeowners, and the impact of home ownership on community stability and economic growth.
This SlideShare provides valuable insights for marketers, business owners, policymakers, and anyone interested in the economic influence of the Latino community. By understanding the various facets of Latino buying power, you can effectively engage with this dynamic and growing market segment.
Equip yourself with the knowledge to leverage Latino buying power, tap into their entrepreneurial spirit, and connect with their unique cultural and consumer preferences. Drive your business success by embracing the economic potential of Latino consumers.
**Keywords:** Latino buying power, economic impact, entrepreneurial contributions, workforce statistics, media consumption, education, home ownership, Latino market, Hispanic buying power, Latino purchasing power.
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.DOT TECH
If you are interested in selling your pi coins, i have a verified pi merchant, who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
Because the core team has announced that pi network will not be doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges like huobi, bitmart and hotbit can get pi is by buying from miners.
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how can I sell my pi coins for cash in a pi APPDOT TECH
You can't sell your pi coins in the pi network app. because it is not listed yet on any exchange.
The only way you can sell is by trading your pi coins with an investor (a person looking forward to hold massive amounts of pi coins before mainnet launch) .
You don't need to meet the investor directly all the trades are done with a pi vendor/merchant (a person that buys the pi coins from miners and resell it to investors)
I Will leave The telegram contact of my personal pi vendor, if you are finding a legitimate one.
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If you are looking for a pi coin investor. Then look no further because I have the right one he is a pi vendor (he buy and resell to whales in China). I met him on a crypto conference and ever since I and my friends have sold more than 10k pi coins to him And he bought all and still want more. I will drop his telegram handle below just send him a message.
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CASE Network Studies and Analyses 463 - Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Partner Countries. Country report: Georgia
1. Costs and Benefits of Labour
Mobility Between the EU
and the Eastern Partnership
Partner Countries.
Country Report: Georgia
3. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 463 – Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility Between …
3
Contents
Abstract ................................................................................................................................ 7
1. Introduction .................................................................................................................... 11
2. Macroeconomic developments: 1991–2011 ................................................................. 13
3. Labour markets in post-Soviet Georgia ....................................................................... 17
4. Labour migration and its impacts on socio-economic development in Georgia ....... 26
4.1. Main Features of Georgian Migration ................................................................ 26
4.2. Labour migration and its main determinants ..................................................... 27
4.3. Countries of destination ...................................................................................... 29
4.4. Demographic structure of migrants .................................................................... 31
4.5. Impact of migration on labour market................................................................. 32
4.6. Employment conditions in the countries of destination .................................... 36
4.7. Social and living adaptation ................................................................................ 37
4.8. Incomes of migrants and remittances ................................................................ 40
4.9. Impact of remittances on the economic and social conditions of Georgian
households ..................................................................................................................... 45
4.10. Macroeconomic determinants and effects of remittances .............................. 46
5. Migration Policies and Institutions ............................................................................... 48
5.1. Relationships with EU .......................................................................................... 49
Conclusions ....................................................................................................................... 51
References ......................................................................................................................... 53
Appendix ............................................................................................................................ 56
4. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 463 – Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility Between …
4
Abbreviations and Acronyms
CIS Commonwealth of Independent States
EU European Union
EaP Eastern Partnership
EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
ENP European Neighbourhood Policy
FDI Foreign Direct Investments
FSU Former Soviet Union
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GeoStat National Statistics Office of Georgia
GOTM Georgia on the Move
IOM International Organization for Migration
IT Informational Technologies
MIA Ministry of Internal Affairs
NBG National Bank of Georgia
NDI National Democratic Institute
NGO Nongovernmental organization
PPP Purchasing Power Parity
TIG Targeted Initiative for Georgia
UN United Nations
VET Vocational education and training
5. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 463 – Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility Between …
5
List of Figures and Tables
Figure 1: Contraction of GDP, 1989–2009 ........................................................................... 15
Figure 2: GDP per capita (PPP) and Real GDP growth of Georgia, 1995–2011 ................... 16
Figure 3: Pyramid population for 2011 (thousands) .............................................................. 17
Figure 4: Population projections for Georgia ........................................................................ 18
Figure 5: Georgian employment at a glance ......................................................................... 20
Figure 6: Unemployment by age, 2010 ................................................................................ 23
Figure 7: Emigrant distribution by age and gender ............................................................... 32
Figure 8: Emigrant distribution by education and gender ...................................................... 32
Figure 9: Migrant distribution by field of study and gender ................................................... 34
Figure 10: Remittances and FDI as a percentage of GDP .................................................... 41
Figure 11: Remittances by country and year, Top 10 countries of 2011 (thousands of USD) 42
Figure 12: Remittances by country and year, Top 10 of 2011 without Russia (thousands of
USD) .................................................................................................................................... 43
Figure 13: Remittances by country as percentage of total remittances, 2000 vs. 2011 ......... 44
Figure 14: Spending distribution of remittances.................................................................... 46
Table 1: Structural change in the Georgian economy: 1990–2011 (gross output by sector) . 14
Table 2: Manufacturing and agriculture sector developments, 1988–2000 ........................... 19
Table 3: Distribution of population aged 15 and older by economic status, 1998–2010
(thousand persons) .............................................................................................................. 20
Table 4: Unemployment rate (%) in Georgia and by rural-urban area .................................. 20
Table 5: Unemployment rate by regions ............................................................................... 21
Table 6: Wages by sector of economic activity, 2007–2010 (monthly gross wages, in USD) 24
Table 7: Net border crossings by Georgian citizens 2000–11 (thousands) ........................... 27
Table 8: Destination countries of Georgian emigrants (%) ................................................... 30
Table 9: Distribution of labour migrants by family status (%) ................................................ 32
Table 10: Distribution of labour migrants by occupation in destination countries (%) ............ 36
Table 11: Distribution of returned migrants according to their legal status abroad (%) ......... 38
Table 12: Distribution of labour migrants by level of adaptation to the social environment
according to recipient countries (%) ..................................................................................... 39
Table 13: Ranking of 2011’s top 10 remitting countries over time ........................................ 45
Table 14: Determinants of remittances (regression on quarterly data, 2000–11) .................. 47
6. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 463 – Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility Between …
Lasha Labadze was born in Tbilisi, Georgia on January 3, 1985. During the years 2002-2006
he studied at Tbilisi State University’s (TSU) Department of Mathematics. Graduating with an
undergraduate degree in mathematics, he chose a career of an economist. To switch his field
of study and gain expertise in economics, Lasha applied to the International School of
Economics at TSU (ISET) in 2006. During the years at ISET he found economics research
appealing and captivating. After graduating ISET in 2008, Lasha accepted the positions of
research associate at ISET and teaching assistant at TSU, where he was teaching economic
principles and microeconomics. In parallel, during the 2008-2010 years he was also conducting
classes in statistics and data analysis at Caucasus School of Business. In 2008 and 2010 he
attended trainings at CERGE-EI University, Prague, to improve teaching skills. In 2011 he
became a director of newly based think tank CASE-Georgia, a daughter organization of CASE
Warsaw. At the same time he started working as an senior research fellow at ISET Policy
Institute. In 2013, Lasha became deputy director of ISET Policy Institute. Recently he studies
at PhD program at TSU and keeps doing both conduct research, data analysis and trainings
and teach the future generations of economists at Tbilisi State University.
Mirian Tukhashvili - Full Professor of the Department of Macroeconomics, Ivane Javakhishvili
Tbilisi State University, scientific supervisor of the Center for Migration Studies. Editor-in-chief
of the scholarly journal Migration. He has published scientific works on Georgia’s labour
market, population economy, urbanization, migration, issues of demographic development. At
the University he teaches the course “labour economics.” He was awarded the Order of Honour
for the contribution made in the development of science.
6
7. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 463 – Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility Between …
7
Abstract
This study provides an analysis of the costs and benefits of emigration for Georgia, with an
emphasis on emigration to the EU. In the concluding section we dwell on the consequences
of a possible liberalization of EU migration policies with regard to Eastern Partnership (EaP)
countries, and how such a policy change would affect the flow and composition of migration
from Georgia to the EU.
The most recent population census in Georgia was conducted in 2002, and therefore, our
analysis had to rely on a wide range of survey data which differ in quality and
comprehensiveness of coverage, often leading to inconsistent estimates and contradictory
conclusions. Data limitations notwithstanding, we do our best to analyse past and current
trends in migrations; the push and pull factors affecting migration decisions, including the
general macroeconomic environment and labour markets; migrant characteristics and how
these have evolved over time.
We look at the costs and benefits of migration through the prism of recent economics
developments in Georgia and in particular the sweeping liberalization reforms of recent years.
While Georgia remains a poor country, its geopolitical position as a Western outpost in the
Caucasus and Central Asian region, its role as a key trade and transportation hub, the superior
quality of its bureaucracy, lack of corruption, etc., provide a very different context for migration
processes, turning migration into a circular phenomenon, a major factor in modernizing the
Georgian economy, society, and politics. The EU should give due consideration to this
phenomenon as it (re)considers its policy on migration with regard to Georgia and, potentially,
other EaP countries.
Migration was key to Georgia’s survival after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Due to internal
wars, secession and ensuing economic and political chaos, by 2002 Georgia had lost about a
million of its citizens, including whole families and individual labour migrants. Emigration
continued in later years, mainly to Russia (until 2003) but also increasingly to other
destinations, including Western Europe (particularly Greece) and North America. While
Georgia’s economy grew from 1995 on, productivity remained very low, pushing people into
emigration to look for work opportunities. Russia’s very fast economic recovery after the 1998
financial crisis (mainly driven by the price rise of oil and other commodities) provided a powerful
pull during this period of relative calm and reconstruction in Georgia.
8. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 463 – Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility Between …
The liberalization reforms implemented after the Rose Revolution (end of 2003) contributed to
the creation of new economic opportunities in Georgia. The much-improved business
environment encouraged many Georgian migrants to return home and repatriate part of their
capital. While precise data on emigration flows are not available, the predominant view among
migration experts is that although significant, labour migration is currently much more circular
in nature. Georgian migrants are now primarily targeting the US and EU member states such
as France, Spain, Germany, Turkey, and Austria. While Russia still has by far the largest stock
of Georgian migrants, the flow of new migrants to Russia has slowed down following the
imposition of economic sanctions on Georgia in 2006 and, in particular, after the 2008 military
confrontation between the two countries. There are many reasons to believe that Russia will
become less and less popular as a destination for younger-generation Georgians, looking for
better study and employment opportunities abroad. These reasons include the political stand-off
between Russia and Georgia (which however might evolve in view of the recent presidential
elections in Georgia), the country’s political proximity to the EU, the gradual building up of a
Georgian diaspora in some of the EU member states, and the improved foreign language
proficiency of Georgian youth. We consider this to be a win-win outcome for the EU and
Georgia.
As long as labour productivity in Georgia remains significantly lower than in the EU member
states, Georgians will continue to be pushed and pulled into migration. Georgia’s per capita
income – a proxy for labour productivity – is currently a fraction of what it is in the leading EU
countries (USD 5,400 PPP). It is important to understand that labour productivity is not low
because of a lack of skills. Georgia has a fairly well-educated labour force, and thus the issue
is not lack of skills per se, but rather the lack of jobs that can make effective use of skilled
labour. Georgian businesses report difficulties in hiring and retaining skilled workers precisely
because they use outdated technology or do not have the necessary scale to provide
remuneration that would be competitive by international standards.
As a consequence, Georgia suffers from high and persistent unemployment, particularly
among youth with a general university education. The high unemployment figures are the result
of a considerable skills mismatch: the country produces far too many university graduates and
too few technically skilled workers. Thus, to remedy this situation, the country needs to invest
considerably in high-quality vocational training while at the same time upgrading its
technological base (leading to the creation of more high-skilled jobs). Until this happens, the
labour market will continue to push young Georgians into migration.
Migration from Georgia is presently also dominated by the younger age cohorts because they
are affected by the pull factor of Europe, in particular its education system. Younger Georgians
8
9. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 463 – Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility Between …
know foreign languages and face lower migration costs, psychologically and otherwise. They
are also better able to leverage the experience and education acquired abroad in order to either
stay in the EU and legally enter the EU labour market or return to Georgia and enjoy easier
entry into leading positions in government, the private sector, international organizations and
NGOs.
Despite recent economic woes, Europe, with the possible exception of Greece, will continue to
be an attractive destination for Georgian migrants in the years to come. Per capita GDP (based
on Purchasing Power Parity or PPP) in the main destination EU countries is 5-7 times higher
than in Georgia. Thus, while most current emigrants probably lack proper documentation (no
precise data are available), the discriminatory wages they earn in the secondary labour market
are sufficiently high to serve as a powerful pull factor. Many migrants are able at some point to
acquire residency rights, creating a bridgehead for relatives and extended family members.
Increasing numbers of skilled Georgian workers, especially in the IT sector, are able to apply
for jobs and receive work permits prior to their arrival in the EU. Despite the crisis, Greece still
has by far the largest stock of Georgian migrants (mostly female domestic workers), though
Italy may be catching up, as reflected in recent remittances data. Germany also attracts scores
of students and labour migrants. However, the volume of remittances from Germany is not very
high, suggesting that the majority of Georgian migrants to Germany are in fact students.
The main channels through which migration directly affects the Georgian economy and society
are remittances, brain drain and gain, and demographic changes.
The flow of remittances to Georgia has steadily been growing at least since 2000 (the earliest
year for which data is available), both in absolute terms and as a percentage of GDP. The
volume of remittances peaked in 2007, just prior to the eruption of the global financial crisis,
reflecting a more favourable investment climate at home and economic prosperity abroad. After
a temporary setback in 2009, remittances grew by 25% and 21% in 2010 and 2011,
respectively, reaching 8.8% of 2011 GDP (1.27 bln USD). Survey evidence shows that
remittances in Georgia reduce poverty, increase household expenditure on consumer goods,
health and education, increase savings and foster social capital formation. There is also some
evidence that remittances may decrease incentives to work, mostly in rural areas. A relatively
small share of remitted capital is used for productive investment, as most of it finances current
consumption. Most importantly, remittances are a key source of foreign earnings for Georgia,
supporting the local currency and financing a significant part (25% in 2011) of the current
account deficit.
9
10. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 463 – Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility Between …
Despite the increasing attractiveness of Europe as a migration destination, Russia remains the
number one remitting country (more than 50% of the total). Among the top five remitting
countries only two are EU nations: Greece and Italy (12% and 9%, respectively). Spain and
the UK appear only in the top ten. Thus, at least as far as remittances are concerned, Georgia
does not depend on the EU, but rather on the Former Soviet Union (FSU) countries and
especially on Russia.
A simplistic “brain drain” argument has it that emigration of skilled workers robs a country of its
most valuable resource. What this argument ignores is the fact that emigration can also be a
powerful source of brain gain for a country. Of course, for this to happen the country in question
has to create the conditions and the business environment for those who left it (in pursuit of
better education or work experience) to come back. Georgia is a good case in point. Georgia’s
reforms and reconstruction since 2004 have been led by the young, Western-educated elite.
While precise data are not available, the vast majority of senior and mid-level leadership
employees in the Georgian government, businesses and the NGO community have gone
through spells of emigration or study in the EU and US. The experience of living and working
in the West has become a powerful source of cultural and social change, helping eradicate
corruption, creating a culture of transparency and effective public service delivery.
Throughout the independence period, Georgian labour migration has undoubtedly served as
an escape valve, helping absorb unemployed resources, providing financial resources and
facilitating a cultural change. At the same time, labour migration has also had negative impacts
on families. Fertility among labour migrants is lower than for the corresponding age cohorts;
female labour emigrants have basically no part in reproduction processes. These factors will
eventually lead to population ageing and an increasing dependency ratio (ratio of retired to
workers) in Georgian society. While difficult to accurately assess, both quantitatively and
qualitatively, labour migration of parents carries negative implications for the ability of families
to perform the basic parental functions, affecting the upbringing and education of children.
Though the prevailing view holds that migration is a positive force in both the country of origin
and destination, unregulated migration can entail social, financial and political costs for the
individuals, society and governments. It is thus essential to regulate labour emigration flows in
Georgia, despite the fact that it would require a great effort and quite some time. We came to
this conclusion based on a comparative analysis of sending and receiving countries’ economic
development, witnessing a huge contrast in the incomes of employed people as well as high
demand for cheap labour on secondary labour markets of European countries. According to
this study, steps taken towards readmission lack the efficiency needed to achieve substantial
results in terms of the optimization of labour emigration shifts.
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11
1. Introduction
After the break-up of the Soviet Union, Georgia went through a process of civil war and
economic collapse. Official estimates suggest that Georgia’s GDP shrunk by more than 70%
between 1990 and 1994.Internal displacement and migration, primarily to Russia, were
essential to the nation’s physical survival during this period. Three distinct phases of Georgia’s
external migration may be distinguished.
Based on data from the last two censuses held in Georgia, between 1989 and 2002, about 1
million emigrants permanently left Georgia (roughly 20–25% of the total population). This figure
includes a very large number of non-Georgian ethnic minorities, including Jews, Russians,
Armenians and Greeks. Mansoor and Quillin (2007, p.33) suggest that Georgia holds third
place (after Albania and Kazakhstan) among the 25 East European and FSU nations in the
share of population lost to emigration.
While the first phase of migration involved a very large ethnic component, the second wave,
between 1995 and 2003, was mainly motivated by the search for better economic opportunities
abroad. Outflows remained substantial, if somewhat smaller than in the initial phase. The
United Nations’ (2009, p.183) global migration assessment for 2006 put net emigration from
Georgia between 1995 and 2005 at 598,000 people. Georgia’s economy was growing at about
5% per year during this period. However, productivity remained very low, pushing people into
emigration to Russia and other destinations, including Western Europe (particularly Greece)
and North America.
Emigration slowed down in the third phase, which started with Georgia’s Rose Revolution (end
of 2003). The liberalization reforms launched in early 2004 contributed to a substantial
improvement in indicators of the business environment, and supported a strong economic
turnaround. During 2003–11, Georgia’s gross national disposable income increased almost
threefold, and so did its GDP per capita. The new business opportunities and increase in
productivity encouraged many Georgian migrants to return home and slowed the outflow of
labour migrants. Migration during this period became circular in nature, with many young
Georgians going abroad to get a better education and coming back to take up leading positions
in government, the private sector, international organizations and NGOs. The volume of
remittances during this period also increased dramatically, peaking in 2007, just before the
12. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 463 – Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility Between …
global financial crisis erupted, reflecting a more favourable investment climate at home and
economic prosperity abroad. Still, a relatively small share of remitted capital was used for
productive investment. Most of it financed current consumption.
While precise data on emigration flows are not available given the collapse of the residential
registration system, the predominant view among migration experts is that labour migration is
still high, though nowadays much more circular in nature. Georgian migrants are now primarily
targeting the US and EU member states such as France, Spain, Germany, Turkey, and Austria.
Russia still has by far the largest stock of Georgian migrants. However, due to the 2008 military
confrontation and the complete breakdown in political and economic relations between Russian
and Georgia, the flow of new Georgian migrants to Russia has been slowing down since 2006.
This study is structured as follows. We begin by providing an overview of the general
macroeconomic developments in Georgia since its independence in 1991, with an emphasis
on the post-Rose Revolution period (Section 1). In Section 2, we outline the major labour
market trends during the 20 years of independence, focusing on the later period. Next, in
Section 3, we take stock of the Georgian migration phenomenon: the typical profile of migrants,
destination countries, employment abroad, and remittance flows, including their micro and
macroeconomic effects. Section 4 reviews Georgia’s current migration polices and relations
with EU member states, including existing agreements on visa facilitation and readmission
policies, as well as the ongoing policy debate.
This paper is based on all available statistical evidence (census, surveys) on migration and
labour markets. In addition, as part of this study, we have organized two focus groups, one
with migration and labour market experts and the other with returned migrants. Through the
study we will use those focus groups findings, views of leading Georgian experts and concrete
examples of returned migrants, to make our arguments stronger.
The costs and benefits of migration for Georgia are discussed throughout the report. In
particular, we consider the benefits of remittances, investment in human capital and brain gain
from circular migration, the role of Georgian diasporas in the facilitation of foreign direct
investment, trade linkages, cultural cooperation, improvements in education, business climate
and the quality of government institutions. On the cost side, we consider the negative impact
of migration on demographic trends, brain drain, the family institution and the negative impact
of remittances on labour supply.
12
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13
2. Macroeconomic developments: 1991–2011
Economic and political breakdown: 1991–95. As indicated in the introduction, after the
collapse of the Soviet Union, Georgia experienced several civil wars and territorial conflicts
that extended and intensified the economic crisis. In 1993, inflation reached 2,000%, reflecting
the almost complete breakdown of the economy, caused by military conflicts within Georgia’s
borders. Despite the ambiguities in official statistics, all available evidence suggests that after
1989 Georgia experienced a catastrophic decline in industrial output, real income,
consumption, capital investment, and virtually every other economic indicator.
Indirectly, one can quantitatively derive the depth of the crisis from the collapse of the energy
supply – at once a cause and a symptom of a deep economic recession. In 1990, over 95% of
Georgia's fuel was imported. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Georgia was able
to receive only about one-third of the energy needed for full-scale operation, and thus most
plants had to operate far below capacity. Georgia has a substantial hydroelectric generation
potential, but only 14% of it was in use during this period. The crisis also had a strong impact
on the structure of the economy. Between 1990 and 1995, the share of manufacturing fell from
23% to a meagre 10% of total (by now much smaller) output. Construction and transport
essentially came to a standstill during this phase of destruction, shrinking to 2% of total output.
The only two sectors that gained in relative terms during this period were small trade and
agriculture (Table 2 below).
During this initial phase of economic and political collapse, Georgia saw a significant wave of
ethnic emigration involving, for example, almost the entire Jewish and Greek communities. The
result was a dramatic change in the ethnic composition of the Georgian population (discussed
below). The protracted economic crisis – with GDP shrinking by more than 70% between 1990
and1994 – has continued to push people into migration. While slowing down with the
resumption of growth after 1995, migration has remained the main survival tactic for many
Georgian households, irrespective of ethnicity, age and other demographic characteristics.
People migrated not so much because of a lack of employment, but mainly because of the
terrible security situation. The breakdown in law and order made it likewise impossible to
engage in productive economic activities, maintain a family, raise children, etc.
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14
Table 1: Structural change in the Georgian economy: 1990–2011 (gross output by
sector)
1990 1995 1996 1999 2003 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
Agriculture 30% 42% 30% 24% 18% 11% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8%
Manufacturing 23% 10% 15% 12% 13% 15% 14% 14% 13% 15% 17%
Construction
and transport
9% 2% 7% 13% 18% 18% 18% 15% 16% 16% 16%
Wholesale and
retail trade
6% 26% 12% 11% 12% 14% 13% 15% 12% 13% 13%
Financial
intermediation
1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 2%
Source: GeoStat
Note: * Adjusted data will be published by the end of November of 2012
Political consolidation and resumption of economic growth: 1994–2003. Between 1995
and 2003, the Georgian economy recovered at an average rate of about 5.9% per annum.
GDP per capita almost doubled during this period, reaching USD 2,600 (PPP) in 2002. This
“improvement” not only reflects a growth in output, but also a steady decline in population size
from 5.4 million in 1990 to 4.4 million in 2002. The population declined during this period in part
due to a slump in fertility and higher death rates, yet the main cause was migration. As shown
in Figure 1 below, the Georgian economy started recovering already in 1995, somewhat earlier
than the CIS countries on average, but Georgia was recovering from such a catastrophically
low level of output that its GDP as a share of the 1989 figure remained well below the CIS
average.
During this phase, unemployment and unproductive employment continued to push people into
labour migration. According to official statistics, the unemployment rate in Tbilisi in 1999 was
above 32%. As Georgia was going through a very fast deindustrialization process, for many
the decision to migrate was the only way to maintain or upgrade their skills. The share of
manufacturing in total output remained roughly stable during the recovery period, at 13–14%,
which is much lower than its 1991 share in output. While growing at roughly the same pace as
the rest of the economy, the manufacturing sector was still operating below capacity and
without generating new jobs. The number of manufacturing firms actually increased by 54.4%
in 1995–99, yet this growth represents very limited real expansion: many of the new firms were
splinters of old Soviet-era enterprises privatized by the Shevarnadze administration.
The security situation during this period improved significantly compared to the early post–
independence chaos. However, property rights were anything but secure. Much of economic
activity was under the control of the mafia, represented in the various government structures,
15. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 463 – Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility Between …
all the way up to the presidency. Under these conditions, the best entrepreneurial talent of
Georgia left the country in search of better business opportunities, particularly for Russia,
joining a very successful Georgian Diaspora there.
108
113 110
59 61 60
Georgia Average FSU
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
15
Figure 1: Contraction of GDP, 1989–2009
88
88
70
70
38
62
54 52 52 54 56 57
61
66
70
74
81
29 25 26 29 32 33 34 34 36 38 41 44
97
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Source: EBRD transition reports
88
48
98
53
Economic liberalization in the wake of the Rose Revolution, 2004–12. The Saakashvili
administration was able to implement radical reforms in the business regulatory regime as well
as in macroeconomic management, resulting in much improved economic performance.
Corruption and criminal violence were drastically reduced. As a result, Georgia has made very
fast progress in sovereign credit ratings and key indices such as The Ease of Doing Business
(International Finance Corporation) and Corruption Perceptions (Transparency International).
The totality of economic reforms and enhanced property rights protection resulted in a much
improved investment climate: FDI rose from USD 500 million in 2003 to USD 2 billion in 2007
(when it peaked just prior to the August 2008 war with Russia). Georgia also became the
beneficiary of substantial aid and technical assistance from the EU, US, Japan and all major
international financial institutions. This aid focused on the improvement of public services
(creation of electronic databases, policies and procedures, training of staff, etc.) and critical
infrastructure. Real GDP growth in 2005, 2006 and 2007 was truly spectacular: 9.6%, 9.4%
and 12.3% per annum, respectively. Most importantly, GDP per capita, adjusted for the cost of
living (based on PPP), increased from about USD 3,000 in 2003 to USD 5,400 in 2011.
16. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 463 – Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility Between …
The global financial crisis and the August 2008 war with Russia punctured the real estate
bubble that had been quickly building up until then, ending a wave of FDI into the real estate
sector, and unleashing a series of political protests during the first half of 2009. While in 2008
Georgia was still able to post growth of 2.4%, 2009 was a year in which output shrank by 3.8%.
Unemployment, which had been very moderately declining in the first three years of
Saakashvili rule (from 13.8% in 2005 to 13.3% in 2007), jumped to above 16% in 2009.
It is important to note that unemployment and unproductive employment in subsistence farming
have remained at very high levels, despite Georgia’s ability to quickly recover from the 2009
recession. While GDP grew at very impressive rates in both 2010 and 2011 (6.4% and 7.0%
in real terms, respectively, see Figure 2), the official estimate of unemployment in 2011 was
as high as 15.1%. A very large share of the Georgian population, more than 50% by some
counts (WB Development Indicators), is employed or self-employed in agriculture.
16
Figure 2: GDP per capita (PPP) and Real GDP growth of Georgia, 1995–2011
Source: GeoStat
During the third (current) phase, thanks to the rise in productivity and a renewed sense of
abundant business opportunities in Georgia, migration has acquired a much more pronounced
circular character. As discussed in the introduction, Russia still has the largest stock of
Georgian migrants, yet is no longer the most popular destination for young Georgian migrants.
A relatively large number of Georgians nowadays target EU countries, especially for education
purposes. Moreover, many of them return to Georgia to occupy positions in the public sector,
17. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 463 – Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility Between …
private businesses, international organizations and NGOs. Remittances during this phase also
increased quite substantially, exceeding FDI from 2009 onwards. Remittances are a major
source of hard currency earnings for Georgia, financing 25% of its current account deficit in
2011. Together with earnings from tourism, remittances allow Georgia to import more than it
exports, financing both current consumption and investment.
17
3. Labour markets in post-Soviet Georgia
In this chapter, we review some of the structural features and developments of the Georgian
labour market, emphasizing its current performance, with a view to putting labour migration,
present and future, in context.
Labour market functioning depends on demographic, economic, social, legislative and
institutional factors. We first review demographic determinants. Next, we devote attention to
the two main reasons for emigration: unemployment and low wages. Finally, we discuss the
professional education system, which plays an important role in addressing the unemployment
problem in the country.
The Georgian population is ageing (Figure 3). As of 2011, 13.8% of the population was over
65 years of age (16.4% female, 10.9% male) compared to 12.7% for 2001. By 2050 almost
one in four residents is projected to be aged over 65.
Figure 3: Pyramid population for 2011 (thousands)
Females Males
Source:
National
Statistics
Office of
Georgia, 2012
0 50 100 150 200
85 +
75 - 79
65 - 69
55 - 59
45 - 49
35 - 39
25 - 29
15 - 19
5 - 9
-1
200 150 100 50 0
85 +
75 - 79
65 - 69
55 - 59
45 - 49
35 - 39
25 - 29
15 - 19
5 - 9
-1
18. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 463 – Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility Between …
According to calculations of the UN population division based on 2010 data, the population of
Georgia will decrease under all three projection scenarios compared to the year 20001 (Figure
4). These projections are based on high, medium and constant fertility rates. Though moving
in the same direction, the demographic contraction might not be that steep according to some
Georgian analysts, as the average population forecast is 3.3 million by 2050 (Tsuladze et al.,
2003, pp. 30–31).
18
Figure 4: Population projections for Georgia
Source: UN, Population Division, Population Estimates and Projections Section
If we look at the UN projections data we see:2
The working-age population (aged 15–64), which currently represents 72.2 % of the
total population, is projected to decrease to 60.1% in 2050 under the assumption of
constant fertility.
Assuming a constant fertility rate, the portion of the labour force composed of young
people aged 15–24 years is expected to decrease by 3.4% in 2015–50, and the labour
force composed of people aged 15–59 is expected to decrease by 8.1% in the same
period.
Gender imbalance will have the same pattern across years. From 2015 to 2050,
females will represent 52.9% of the population (constant fertility assumption).
The labour market reforms in Georgia were started during the period of economic collapse.
The abolition of the system of planned labour distribution and the introduction of a free labour
market was a painful process for Georgia. The employment rate during the first phase fell from
87% to 59%, mainly in manufacturing and agriculture. The manufacturing sector collapsed
dramatically, gross output of this sector in 1995 was only 13.6% of the 1988 level (Table 2),
1Source: UN population division http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/country-profiles/country-profiles_1.htm.
2 Source: http://esa.un.org/wpp/unpp/p2k0data.asp
19. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 463 – Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility Between …
the most severe decline among all CIS countries. Agricultural sector production in 1994 was
just half of what it had been in 1988.3 According to experts’ opinion, expressed during the focus
group, among other things, emigration was one of the significant forces which damaged
agricultural production in Georgia in the early 1990s and it remained depressed since that time.
19
Table 2: Manufacturing and agriculture sector developments, 1988–2000
1988 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Manufacturing 100 15.6 13.6 14.2 15.4 15.0 15.8 17.8
Agriculture 100 49.2 55.6 58.9 64.8 59.6 62.9
Source: GeoStat
During the second phase, unemployment was the main reason for emigration. Georgians were
emigrating abroad, in search of better labour market conditions. Later, during the third phase,
the reasons for emigrating, as well as the destinations, became more diversified but
unemployment and low wages remained among the main drivers.
During the last 10 years, despite the substantial increase in GDP, the unemployment rate has
not decreased; after the war with the Russian Federation in 2008 and during the global financial
crisis, it rose to over 16%. Murman Tsartsidze, labour market expert, who participated in our
focus group, stated that for 2008 the cost of unemployment to the Georgian economy was
about half of its GDP, which is USD 10 bill. While the methodology underlying this estimate
could be questioned, it clearly speaks about the severity of unemployment.
The employment rate was low during the last decade and ranged from 52–59%. Tables 3 and
4 give a snapshot of the current development trends in the Georgian labour market. The labour
force is decreasing, mainly because of emigration but in part also because of discouraged
workers having given up their job search. According to World Bank estimates, if discouraged
workers were included in these figures, the unemployment rate would rise to 18.8%.4
3Nodar Chitanava: “Social economic problems of transition period”, Tbilisi 1997.
4 Jan Rutkowski. Skills Mismatch and Unemployment in Georgia: The Challenge of creating Productive
Jobs. World Bank, 2011
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Table 3: Distribution of population aged 15 and older by economic status, 1998–2010
20
(thousand persons)
1998 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Active population 1972.8 2104.2 2050.8 2041.0 2023.9 2021.8 1965.3 1917.8 1991.8 1944.9
Employed 1728.5 1839.2 1814.9 1783.3 1744.6 1747.3 1704.3 1601.9 1656.1 1628.1
Hired 724.4 650.9 618.5 600.9 600.5 603.9 625.4 572.4 596.0 618.6
Self-employed 987.1 1184.9 1195.2 1180.8 1143.3 1141.6 1078.8 1028.5 1059.0 1007.1
Not-identified 17.0 3.4 1.3 1.6 0.8 1.8 0.1 1.1 1.2 2.4
Unemployed 244.2 265.0 235.9 257.6 279.3 274.5 261.0 315.8 335.6 316.9
Population
outside labour
force
1044.0 1135.3 1048.4 1105.9 1136.1 1228.0 1138.6 1145.2 1139.3 1083.3
Unemployment
rate (%)
12.4 12.6 11.5 12.6 13.8 13.6 13.3 16.5 16.9 16.3
Activity rate (%) 65.4 65.0 66.2 64.9 64.0 62.2 63.3 62.6 63.6 64.2
Empl. rate (%) 57.3 56.8 58.6 56.7 55.2 53.8 54.9 52.3 52.9 53.8
Source: GeoStat
Table 4: Unemployment rate (%) in Georgia and by rural-urban area
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Country 10.3 11.1 12.6 11.5 12.6 13.8 13.6 13.3 16.5 16.9 16.3
Urban area 18.4 22.3 24.2 22.1 24.3 26.3 26.1 23.9 28.9 28.8 27.2
Rural area 3.9 2.7 3.9 4.1 4.2 5 4.8 5.4 7.1 7.8 7.9
Source: GeoStat
A large part of the workforce is employed in the low-productivity agricultural sector. The
structural changes of the 1990s forced large groups of people to migrate back to rural areas,
and engage in agriculture again in order to satisfy subsistence needs. Nowadays still more
than half of employed people work in agriculture. In the official statistics, all able-bodied
members of a household that possesses at least 0.5 ha plot of land are not counted as
unemployed. Thus, the true unemployment rate is probably even higher, as suggested by the
figures for urban areas, which are 3–4 times higher than the figures for rural areas.
According to a survey conducted by the National Democratic Institute (NDI) in 2011, of a total
of 16,161 interviewees, 31% indicated to be unemployed and looking for a job, 5% said not to
be looking for work and another 30% made up the non-active labour force, which includes
students, retirees, etc. (Figure 5).
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21
Figure 5: Georgian employment at a glance
Unemployed
and
not looking
for a job
5%
Employed
Source: NDI, www.ndi.org
34% Non-Active
Labor Force
30%
Unemployed
and looking
for a job
31%
The unemployment rate is also very different across regions. In 2010, Tbilisi had the highest
unemployment rate: 30.1%; Achara has the second highest, with 17.9% (Table 5). These
differences in unemployment rates are directly reflected in the geography of emigration. As
shown by several studies, the first choice of an unemployed person is to migrate internally, in
particular to the capital. Thus, Tbilisi is absorbing people in search of work and the pool of
unemployed thereby swells. Migration to other countries seems to be the second choice of
unemployed people. As was already pointed out, unemployment remains one of the main
reasons for emigration in the third phase too, as supported by several studies discussed below.
Table 5: Unemployment rate by regions
Year
2003 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Region
Tbilisi 26.1 30.2 28.0 29.8 29.6 30.1
Kakheti 5.8 6.5 5.3 9.3 11.0 11.1
Imereti 7.8 9.7 7.2 11.8 13.2 11.6
Achara 12.1 18.9 25.4 25.6 22.1 17.9
ShidaKartli 9.3 10.2 8.1 16.3 16.6 12.7
KvemoKartli 6.9 8.4 7.6 10.7 10.7 9.2
Samegrelo-ZemoSvaneti 6.2 6.4 6.1 11.8 13.1 14.3
Other regions 6.3 6.4 6.5 8.0 8.3 8.9
Source:GeoStat
During the first and second emigration phases, economic conditions in Georgia forced people
to emigrate regardless of their age. The age structure of emigrants was more or less uniformly
distributed unlike in the third phase, which is characterized by younger emigrants. This change
in more recent years could be attributable to the relative improvement in general economic
conditions, leading to lower migration among older people, who typically bear higher migration
22. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 463 – Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility Between …
costs. The young have better opportunities to acquire a better education abroad, are more
enthusiastic and more demanding. This explains the relatively high unemployment rate for
people up to 24 years, who appear to be searching for “good jobs” and not accepting existing
ones. According to 2010 data, the unemployment rate was the highest for this age group
(38.3%), followed by the 25–29 and 30–34 years of age groups, with 27.8% and 24.2%
respectively. The 20–34age group is the one with the highest probability of migrating for two
reasons: most people in this category do not have language barriers and the psychological
losses of migration associated with this age group are less.
Employment age characteristics changed after the Rose Revolution with the implementation
of a number of crucial structural reforms. Particularly, people over 40 with no relevant job skills
were fired and replaced by younger individuals. Most fired persons exited the labour force and
are now counted as “discouraged workers”. This movement is partly captured in Table 3 above,
which shows a growing number of people outside the labour force during 2003–2008 (together
with an ageing population). This “generation replacement” is one outstanding characteristic of
the Georgian labour market during the third phase. These numbers are not captured in
aggregate statistics but, in everyday life we notice that young, returned migrants with a Western
education and/or work experience hold almost all “elite” jobs. For example, ministers, deputy
ministers, and the heads of the leading businesses and NGOs all are persons mostly with a
Western education. This serves as an incentive for young people to go abroad to study, and
thereby ensure a high return on education. This idea is supported by data from the third phase,
showing that educational reasons for emigration are emerging (as discussed below). At the
same time, some of the experts negatively assess the effectiveness of those reforms of
Saakashvili administration directed to unemployment problem, to quote from our focus group:
“Unemployment is the primary reason for poverty, which remained as the most important
problem even after the Rose Revolution. The administration has said that poverty is its number
one enemy, but in reality poverty remains quite high in Georgia.”
22
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23
Figure 6: Unemployment by age, 2010
16%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Averageup to 20 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65 and
Unemployment rate
Source: GeoStat
29%
38%
28%
24%
19%
13% 12% 11% 12%
8%
1%
more
Age group
According to the Human Development Report (2010), Georgia is among the leading countries
in terms of size of the unemployed workforce with secondary or higher education levels: about
81% of the unemployed had completed a secondary or higher education in 2008.5 The World
Bank published a similar figure for 2010 (92.3%6), and also noted that 40.3% of the
unemployed have completed tertiary education against 31.6% of the employed population.7
One can thus argue that the high and persistent unemployment rate is a reflection of both weak
labour demand and the skills mismatch, particularly the surplus of workers with a tertiary and
secondary general education and the shortage of workers with technical skills. One should also
remember that the economic recession in the post-Soviet period caused the collapse of the
educational system as well. It was quite easy to get a diploma and formally join the pool of
“overeducated” people. Fortunately, this situation was much improved during the third phase,
due to several successful reforms introduced in the higher and professional educational
system. Nevertheless, “overeducation” is a persistent problem and the “overeducated”
unemployed cohort is emigrating outside the country.
In sum, a distinct feature of the Georgian labour market is the shortage of workers with
technical skills. The Georgian Young Economists survey of the business environment in 2007–
5 Source: Human Development Report 2010.http://hdr.undp.org.
6 Jan Rutkowski. Skills Mismatch and Unemployment in Georgia: The Challenge of creating Productive
Jobs. World Bank, 2011
7Source: World Bank Statistics 2012. http://databank.worldbank.org/Data/Home.aspx
24. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 463 – Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility Between …
088 revealed that there is a high demand for medium and top professional managers, with
technical and skilled qualifications. The construction business lacks qualified skilled labour. A
lot of people are represented on the supply side with the above mentioned qualifications.
Georgian businesses report difficulties in hiring and retaining skilled workers precisely because
they use outdated technology or do not have the necessary scale to provide remuneration that
would be competitive by international standards. In addition, workers probably do not possess
the modern skills required for some specific positions. Official statistics show that the country
has quite a large number of VETs, but their quality is still subpar. The World Competitiveness
Report (2011–12) concludes that Georgia’s inadequately educated workforce represents a
major obstacle for doing business in the country.9 This suggests that the VETs are ineffective
at preparing professionals with the skills that meet current market needs. Our focus group
findings are in line with the World Competitiveness Report. All experts agree that there are
huge gaps between educational programs at VETs and labour market demands, largely
because a comprehensive labour market analysis does not exist.
Low wages are another problematic feature of the Georgian labour market. The average wage
in 2010 was USD 335.30.
Table 6: Wages by sector of economic activity, 2007–2010 (monthly gross wages, in
USD)
Year
2007 2008 2009 2010
Sector
Agriculture, forestry 110.7 200.8 158.0 156.7
Fishing 101.0 141.6 154.0 191.6
Mining, quarrying 393.7 542.8 405.7 455.8
Manufacturing 214.1 342.5 268.1 286.5
Electricity, gas & water 319.5 495.4 459.0 461.7
Construction 296.0 400.8 374.8 376.5
Trade; repair 212.8 342.6 309.9 327.4
Hotels & restaurants 142.7 223.8 218.3 211.8
Transport & conmmunication 294.7 448.0 436.6 441.9
Financial intermediation 607.3 901.5 789.6 716.3
Real estate, renting 242.9 362.4 383.3 334.7
Public administration 350.4 583.4 532.1 545.9
Education 91.6 163.5 161.2 171.2
Health & social work 123.5 205.2 219.5 250.7
Average 250.1 382.5 347.9 352.1
Source: GeoStat
The ratio of the sector wage to national average wage shows a large sector differentiation,
which is partly connected with sector productivity. In agriculture workers earn only 46.7% of
the country’s average monthly wage. Sectors with relatively high wages are mining and
24
8 Source: www.economists.ge. (The sample size was about 1,000 and covered small, medium and
large businesses’ representatives.)
9 www.weforum.org.
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quarrying, production and distribution of electricity, gas and water, construction, transport and
communication, financial intermediation, real estate, and public administration.
To conclude, the functioning of the labour market in Georgia is still producing undesirable
outcomes, despite the systemic reforms introduced in the past few years. Georgia remains
characterized by a distorted labour market that lacks dynamism, and the projected changes in
the labour supply point to an increasing role of labour migration in the future, unless the current
mismatches and lack of opportunities are addressed.
25
The Vocational Education System in Georgia
The problems highlighted in the text with regard to the mismatch between the qualifications of
Georgians and available jobs point to substantial problems with the vocational education system.
Attempts have been made to increase the competitiveness of the labour force through the availability
of different qualification courses. However, this is complicated by the lack of any comprehensive study
and forecast of the structural changes of the national economy, identifying trends in demand changes
and employment dynamics, as well as analysing the structure of existing jobs and their qualitative
characteristics.
The reform in the sphere of vocational education began in 2007. Two types of professional education
institutions are currently being set up in the country, namely colleges and professional education
centres. Colleges are institutions of higher education that carry out higher professional education
programs. Vocational education centres are legal entities of public law that carry out vocational
programs. Vocational education prepares certified specialists and enrolling in a vocational education
program is possible only after graduating from a basic level of general education (which is lower
secondary education, according to ISCED standards, namely 9 years). A supervisory board, consisting
of employers, representatives of social organizations, parents of the students and representatives of
vocational education teachers, represents the highest body of professional education administration
in these institutions.
The VET system is still in transition. The question “how accurately does the VET system meet the
labour market demands?” is still a concern. Some larger enterprises have developed in-house VET
programs for their staff. They do this for two reasons: the existing training centres do not offer the
required training programs and/or the quality of the labour force they employ does not meet the specific
expectations of the enterprises.
The Government of Georgia is currently developing a new strategy for vocational education and
training (VET). The financing model of VET centres has recently changed in order to increase
motivation. The main problems of the current VET system are the following:1 (1) Many VET offerings
provide no further educational options for learners. (2) The VET infrastructure is somewhat outdated,
and the system suffers from under-financing from public sources. (3) There is no evaluation and
monitoring information system, which would allow more effective steering of the system. (4) The social
partners are not involved in the process of policy development and implementation, nor in the
evaluation of VET outcomes at the institutional or national level.
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26
4. Labour migration and its impacts on socio-economic
development in Georgia
4.1. Main Features of Georgian Migration
In the late Soviet era, organized migration played a major part in resettling population from
labour-intensive territories to regions lacking such resources. In the case of Georgia, labourers
drifted mainly to Russia through southern Georgia’s border and the majority of migrants were
Armenians who lived in this region. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia remained
the most popular destination for quite a while. Still, post-Soviet labour migration differs from
prior migrations in terms of its scale, causes, social, demographic and economic outcomes, all
of which are discussed in detail below.
The political and economic difficulties of the post-Soviet period were reflected in substantial
changes in the migration processes of Georgia. With economic activity decreasing dramatically
and unemployment skyrocketing, and with political and military strife reaching dangerous
levels, many Georgians sought relief from destitution through emigration in the early years of
Georgia’s independence. By comparing the population censuses of 1989 and 2002, one can
gauge that no less than 1 million people (about a quarter of the population) permanently left
Georgia and settled in foreign countries. In addition, during the same time period, 400,000
people were internally displaced by force from the territories annexed by Russia and continue
living in dire conditions.
According to 2002 census data, most of the permanently resettled population were not ethnic
Georgians. There is no definitive statistical data but all experts agree that ethnic emigration
mainly took place during 1990–1995, the first emigration phase. People who migrated from
Georgia during the first two phases left for the following destinations: Russia (64.5%), Greece
(16.4%), Western Europe (5.6%), US and Canada (3.9%), CIS, except Russia (3.5%), northern
Europe (0.4%), southern Europe (1.2%), Turkey (1.3%), and to Israel (1.7%).10 This historically
brief time period marks a major change in the Georgian population’s ethnic structure. The share
of ethnic Georgians in the total population increased from 70% in 1989 to 82% in 2002.
Since the Rose Revolution, the rate of permanent emigration of the Georgian population has
decreased significantly, although the process is still ongoing due to the country’s lower ranking
in terms of living standards compared to other immigration countries.
10 G. Tsuladze. Emigration from Georgia Based on 2002 Population Census Records. Tbilisi 2005,p.
44.
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Migration into Georgia, on the other hand, is quite low. According to the UN Population Division,
about 163,000 foreigners had Georgian residence in 2010.
27
4.2. Labour migration and its main determinants
The absence of official comprehensive migration data for Georgia hampers the
analysis of labour migration. International migration statistics in Georgia are based
solely on numbers of border crossings (Table 7): with every border crossing, passport
copies are sent to the Ministry of Internal Affairs’ analytical centre, where the number
of people leaving the country is tallied by citizenship. Other potential indicators (such
as gender, age and birth place) are not analysed.
Table 7: Net border crossings by Georgian citizens 2000–11 (thousands)
Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Crossings
(x1,000)
-35.2 -32.6 -27.8 -27.5 5.5 76.3 -12.1 -20.7 -10.2 34.2 18.1 20.2
Source: GeoStat
Thus, the data in Table 7 above is not popular among the experts and considered
underestimated. However, it gives a clear picture of the migration flows and suggests our
findings about the increasing circularity of migration during the later years. Overall, according
to this official border crossings data, in the period 2000–11 about 12,000 citizens left Georgia.
Labour migration data is thus derived from occasional statistical studies or small-scale surveys
carried out for scientific and practical needs. Among these, the most important is the household
survey, covering about 7000 households, conducted by the National Statistics Office of
Georgia in 2008. This data gives valuable information about the demographic profile of
emigrants, their destination, etc. Collected information about emigrants from this survey
matches the different private research studies’ results. We will refer to a few of them in our
paper.
The Civil Registry Agency and other state authorities working on diaspora issues (the Ministry
of Accommodation and Refugees, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Office of the State
Minister for Georgia of Diaspora Issues) started processing databases pertaining to the
diaspora. The further development of this database mainly relies on information provided by
the consulates and Georgian Diaspora. Since these institutions also face the difficulty of
capturing data on illegal migrants, selective surveys remain the basic sources for obtaining and
validating the information on labour migration.
Our estimates of the numbers of labour emigrants are founded on studies carried out in
different regions at different times, mainly by the Migration Research Centre and some other
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organizations. These research studies aim to gather information on the share of labour
emigrants in a given population at several micro settlements. We concluded that the labour
emigration ratio varies from one region to another. However, its relatively high value can be
observed everywhere, and the existing number of labour emigrants is estimated to lie between
350,000 and 500,000 people originally from Georgia. Thus, our best estimate is that in the year
2011, 8–11% of the Georgian population had to be considered labour migrants.
According to studies conducted by the International Organization for Migration (IOM), at the
end of the second emigration phase (2003) primarily economic factors accounted for the labour
emigration. Among the factors contributing to labour emigration, 50% of the so-called substitute
respondents (family members of a labour migrant who possess detailed information on working
and living conditions of an emigrated member) emphasize the need for improvement of the
emigrant’s material conditions, 11% forcefully cite the wish to save their family from starvation,
9% highlight several failed attempts to find suitable jobs, 5% point to the impossibility of finding
any kind of job, 4% refer to invitations from foreign employers, 5% benefits from close relatives
living abroad, 12% was simply interested in living and working abroad, 1% married a foreigner,
2% quotes political reasons and 1% other reasons.11
During the third phase of emigration, the survey carried out in 2008 by GeoStat12 shows that
labour emigration is attributable to the following factors: unemployment (66.2%), low wages
(7.9%), forced displacement (0.8%), family conflict (2.2%), and other reasons (19.2%). As we
can see, economic factors dominate in this phase as well.
Our own focus group, which included a number of returned migrants and one family member
of current emigrant, confirmed the findings of the survey. As we found, the focus group
members emigrated at different times but the main reason for all of them was insufficient
income of their families.
Finally, it should be mentioned that labour emigration and remittances became major sources
of subsistence income for large segments of the population in the aftermath of the post-Soviet
period, which brought along a deep economic crisis and the rapid shrinking of the labour market
capacity.
28
11Labour Migration from Georgia.IOM.2003, p. 21.
12Report of Research conducted by National Statistics Office of Georgia in 2008.
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29
4.3. Countries of destination
During the post-Soviet period labour emigration from Georgia was initially directed towards
Russia and Turkey and later spread to other countries.
Currently the labour migrant flow to Turkey is relatively small for several reasons, such as
Turkey’s high unemployment rate, its low wages compared to EU countries or North America,
as well as language and social environment adaptation barriers.
In 2002, with the support of the IOM,13 the Migration Research Center conducted research that
covered the capital of Georgia (Tbilisi), the big industrial city of Rustavi, the single-branch
mining centre of Tkhibuli and the Akhalkalaki region, densely populated with ethnic minorities
(Armenians). The distribution of labour migrant flows across these areas was the following: the
main destination by far was Russia (39%), followed by Greece and USA (14%), Germany
(about 13%), and the other European countries combined (only 11%). The results drawn from
all the research and censuses conducted to date show that the main destination country for
labour emigration is Russia. The National Statistics Office of Georgia derived a similar figure
(about 40%) through a study it conducted in 2008.14 A. Takidze came up with the same figure
(40.4%) while studying the Adjara population emigration in 2006.
It is worth mentioning that, according to the above-mentioned study, a major share of the labour
force that resettled in Russia originates from regional municipalities of Georgia. For example,
Tbilisi accounts for only 15% while Akhalkalaki municipality makes up 95% of the local labour
emigrants gone to Russia. In conclusion, the bigger is an urbanized Georgian settlement the
less it contributes to labour emigration to Russia (Appendix Table 1.3). All other studies support
this finding, which applies not only to the first two emigration phases but also to recent years.
For example, in a study about labour emigration geography conducted by N. Chelidze in 2006,
the author found that in Ambrolauri and Zugdidi municipalities 74% and 75%15 of labour
migrants left for Russia respectively. According to the IOM 2008 publication “Migration in
Georgia: a country profile”, during the third emigration phase (after 2003), the major destination
countries for labour emigration have been: Russia (48%), Greece (13%), Germany (12%), the
United States (10%) and Ukraine (5%).16 Other countries have far smaller shares. Even
Turkey, which neighbours the Autonomous Republic of Adjara and grants visa-free entry into
13Labour Migration from Georgia.IOM.2003, p.24.
14National Statistics Office of Georgia Report. 2008.
15 N. Chelidze. Labour Emigration from Post-Soviet Georgia. Tbilisi, 2006, p. 56.
16Labour Migration from Georgia. IOM. 2008.
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the country, attracts fewer labour migrants compared to the Russian Federation (41,4%),17
according to the study carried out in this region.
The findings of this 2008 IOM study are similar to the official data available only for 2002 and
2008.
30
Table 8: Destination countries of Georgian emigrants (%)
2002 2008
Russia 64.4 40.0
Other FSU states 3.6 20.0
European Union 23.0 35.0
Greece 16.3 16.8
Germany 4.3 4.7
Poland 0.1 -
Italy 0.1 4.3
Spain 0.7 3.6
UK 0.4 3.0
Source: GeoStat
It is worth to mention that Italy is becoming a favourable destination for emigrants, especially
for caregivers and household workers. During the focus group discussions it was mentioned
that the compensation for such type of work is almost twice higher compared to Turkey for
example, although it is more difficult to get there.
As we can see, a sharp fall in the number of Georgian labour migrants in Russia can be
observed in recent years and especially after the Russia-Georgia War of 2008. The causes
underlying this fall are the following:
Georgia’s breaking of diplomatic relations with Russia, which led to the deportation of
illegal Georgians in 2006.
The Georgian diaspora’s gaining ground in European countries. More labour emigrants
are acquiring a legal status, contributing to a stronger foothold for migrant workers in
Europe. Labour emigrants are becoming more competitive as well.
English having become the main foreign language being taught across Georgia,
displacing Russians the primary second language, especially among the young.
It is still worth mentioning that the relatively small differences in culture and similar religious
beliefs facilitate the integration process of Georgian emigrants in the Russian society. The
Russian labour market is convenient for Georgia in this sense. As a result, as we highlighted
17A. Takidze. Forming and Use of Labour Resources of Autonomous Republic of Adjara. Tbilisi. 2006,
p.63.
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above, large numbers of Georgia’s labour emigrants still reside there. More than half of the
electronic money transfers to Georgia originate in Russia; undoubtedly, labour emigration
sustained at a normal rate is beneficial for Georgia.
Turkey constituted another important destination country for Georgian emigrants during the
first emigration phase, following Georgia’s independence from the Soviet Union and the
subsequent economic crisis, mainly due to the ease of access and travel arrangements to
Turkey. In later phases Turkey lost its prominence as a destination country for Georgians and
became a principal transit route instead.
Another country hosting large numbers of labour emigrants is Greece, where female migrants
are in high demand (as housemaids, caregivers, janitors, servers) in the secondary labour
market. Germany also attracts scores of labour emigrants, by giving them opportunities to work
and study simultaneously.
Lately, migration flows have taken an apparent turn to diversification among European
countries as well as within these countries. Italy, Spain and Britain’s shares have risen
significantly. In addition, some temporary labour emigrants who had originally settled in Turkey
have subsequently moved to EU countries.
Georgia is not a key country for irregular transit migration as its transport system remains
underdeveloped and the country is not located on the most direct route between destination
and origin countries. However, there is some evidence of transit migration from Armenia, Iran,
as well as from Russia and Ukraine, towards Turkey and the EU member states.
On the other hand, it is necessary to consider the labour emigration perspectives of Georgia’s
population as a whole. Demographic depression in Russia, future demands on the labour force
and the success of Georgian emigrants in business make us think that once the political
situation has settled, it is in the interest of both countries that the effective employment of
Georgia’s population be maintained in the Russian labour market. Moreover, in such a situation
it would be possible to strike a balance and arrive at suitable shares of Georgian labour
migrants for the EU, the US and the CIS countries.
31
4.4. Demographic structure of migrants
According to the IOM paper of 2003 (the study conducted by the Migration Research Center
with support of the IOM), women accounted for 40% of all labour emigrants from Georgia.
Similarly, women make up 43.4% of labour emigrants according to the study conducted by
GeoStat in 2008. Thus, we can conclude that there was no significant change of gender
composition in emigration flows during the last emigration phase. However, the main
destinations of Georgian male and female migrants are different. Georgian labour emigration
32. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 463 – Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility Between …
is less feminized in Russia. The 2008 study shows that among emigrated women only 26.2%
settles in Russia; this number is slightly higher for Greece (26.8%). On the other hand, more
than half of the emigrated males go to Russia and Greece absorbs only 9.1% of male labour
emigrants.18
The IOM study revealed that labour emigration is marked by age polarization, and that migrants
are likely to be younger than the general population. For example, 41% of emigrants are under
the age of 30.19
The 2008 study cites the following results for the shares of various age groups in labour
emigration: 48.4% are up to 40 years old, 23.7% are 40–49 years old, and the shares decrease
for older age groups.20
The relatively younger age group makes up most of the labour emigrants in Germany as a
great number of them combine work with study there and students dominate in this contingent.
Older Georgian females (working as housemaids, nannies, housekeepers) are dominant in the
labour emigration flow to Greece.
32
Table 9: Distribution of labour migrants by family status (%)
Marital status Male Female Total
Married 57.7 61.8 59.5
Single 38.5 25.8 33.0
Divorced 2.3 6.4 4.1
Widow(er) 1.5 5.9 3.4
Total 100 100 100
Source: GeoStat, 2008
4.5. Impact of migration on labour market
Mass labour migration creates certain problems for the functioning of the national labour
market. Most emigrants are working-age educated people, as shown by the 2008 GeoStat
survey (Figures 7 and 8). This holds true for both men and women, although women in the 50-
59 age group are in greater proportion than men, perhaps reflecting the demand for household
services in some destination countries. A similar distribution of emigrants by age, gender and
education level is shown by the “Georgia on the Move” (GOTM) survey conducted in 2008
(Appendix Figures 15 and 16).
18Report of National Statistics Office of Georgia. 2008.
19Labour Migration from Georgia.IOM. 2003. p. 32.
20Report of National Statistics Office of Georgia. 2008.
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33
Figure 7: Emigrant distribution by age and gender
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Percentage of emigrants (%)
Source: GeoStat, 2008
Age group
Figure 8: Emigrant distribution by education and gender
Man
Woman
Source: GeoStat, 2008
Labour migration has undoubtedly served as an escape valve for unemployed resources.
However, over the long run migration may actually exacerbate the demographic problem
mentioned above, which will reduce the labour force in the future. When most emigrants fall in
the reproductive age category, emigration can aggravate the problem of the ageing of the
population.
Looking at the educational distribution, another possible negative effect to be considered is the
“brain drain”. Both the GeoStat (2008) and the GOTM (2008) survey show that the three main
groups of emigrants are people with a secondary, secondary technical or higher education.
34. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 463 – Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility Between …
However, as we already discussed above, “education” and “skills” do not mean the same thing
in Georgia. This was evident in our focus group of returned migrants, almost all of whom had
no specific skills at the time of emigration, and, while holding bachelors diplomas, had never
worked in their professions. Thus, these figures do not necessarily indicate that skilled people,
who could have contributed to the development of Georgia, are leaving their country. For a
proper assessment of this phenomenon, the issue of “Brain Drain” needs to be discussed in
more detail.
First of all, an important point in this context is discussed in Babych and Fuenfzig (2012), a
working paper that tries to determine the binding constraints for the economic growth of
Georgia. The authors claim that the main problem is not the lack of skills but rather the lack of
jobs for skilled people. As a result, skilled people migrate because there is no job for them or
the salaries offered are too low and do not correspond to their skills.
A case in point is the engineers. In the FSU, Georgia was an industrial country with large
factories, which pretty much stopped working after the collapse of the Soviet Union, leaving all
engineers without a job. Figure 9 below shows the share of (male) engineers among emigrants
is most conspicuous.
In such a situation, it is open to debate whether the migration of skilled people should be
considered a “Brain Drain” given that, had these people stayed, they would not have been able
to work in a job matching their qualifications and probably would have lost their skills. In a way
the migration of these highly qualified people enables them to preserve their skills and may in
some cases help them enhance their qualifications. Once demand for these people’s skills is
created domestically, the possible return of these individuals could have a very positive effect
on Georgia’s development. Young migrants who have already returned with a Western
education and/or work experience hold almost all “elite” jobs. Aggregate statistics cannot
capture these numbers because of their small quantity, but we did observe that ministers,
deputy ministers, heads of leading businesses and NGOs are all mostly persons with a
Western education. Thus, we argue that there are significant benefits to the “brain Gain”.
34
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35
Figure 9: Migrant distribution by field of study and gender
Source: GOTM (2008), Gerber and Torosyan (2010)
Another point, which also applies to some extent to the Georgian migration, is disqualification
that is unavoidable if labour migrants are subjected to low-skill work experiences under
discriminating labour conditions with no opportunities for professional development.
A study of return migrants21 in 2011 revealed that, even at this point, the effect is not one-sided.
On the one hand, labour emigration disqualifies professionals but on the other hand, it
promotes their adaptation into a more developed market environment, thus helping them
acquire skills that make them more competitive and functional within modern market
boundaries. The majority of labour emigrants (52.9%) state that they did not gain any significant
professional experiences by working abroad and some indicated (26.5%) these experiences
had been of no use in Georgia. However, 20.6% said working abroad had played a major role
in the successful development of their careers after returning.
In summary, despite the certain negative effect of disqualification, the positive effects of gaining
and developing skills prevail; the Georgian migration is characterized by a “Brain Gain” rather
than a “Brain Drain”. Moreover, we think that the liberal changes in EU migration policy might
even address to some extent the negative effect of disqualification since these changes will
help to avoid many problems related to the mostly illegal status of Georgian labour migrants
21Labour Market and Return Migrant Reintegration in Georgia. Tbilisi 2011.
36. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 463 – Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility Between …
and help the skilled migrants avoid low-skill work experiences under discriminating labour
conditions.
36
4.6. Employment conditions in the countries of destination
The key issues that labour emigration needs to address are employment of labour emigrants
abroad and further advancement of their labour efficiency. According to many research studies,
only part of the high labour potential of labour migrants is used. Human capital formed through
many years of education and expertise of professionals in highly specialized fields is quietly
depreciated. We have mentioned above the lack of correlation between labour emigrants’
positions held and their qualifications.
Table 10: Distribution of labour migrants by occupation in destination countries (%)
Job held by labour
emigrant abroad
Answers given
by substitute
respondents
(family members)
Individuals surveyed
in immigration
countries
Returned
migrants
Online
survey
Caregiver 12 14.4 10 -
Nanny 5.3 22.4 8.0 13.6
Server/sales person 8.8 13.7 14 7.5
Service field
(Hotel, beauty parlour,
casino, cook)
10.1 10.1 10 18.2
Construction worker 26.9 10.8 22 10.6
Car mechanic 3 7.9 8 -
Seasonal worker in
agriculture
2.3 - - 1.5
Driver 4.9 5 3 -
Owns a business 8.5 3.6 - 1.5
Doctor 0.5 - - 12.1
Nurse 1 - 3 1.5
Has higher education
and works in his/her
specialized field
7.4 10.1 16 13.6
Tradesman 4 - 7.6 -
Junior office employee 2.2 4.3 5 4.5
Sportsman 0.0 0.7 - 1.5
Other 3 - 1 6.1
Total 100 100 100 100
Source: N. Chelidze. Labour Emigration from Post-Soviet Georgia. Tbilisi. Lega.2006. pp. 88–89
The career structure of the entire emigration flow is shown in Table 10 above, where the facts
are presented more accurately under “Substitute Respondent” data, as data on more than
1,000 labour emigrants from different regions of Georgia were collected through their family
members. Similar results are found through the other survey sources but the complexity of
collecting data from these sources renders results that are less representative in our opinion.
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The above-mentioned analysis of the employed contingent in immigration countries (Russia,
Germany, Greece, USA) shows that the majority of emigrants in Greece (80.0%) work as
caregivers, nannies and housekeepers/cleaners, while only 3.2% of individuals hold similar
positions in Russia. Moreover, 12.9% of labour emigrants in Russia run their own businesses,
which is less frequently the case in other countries. Also, Russia hosts the largest number of
labour emigrants working in their specialized field (13%). In our opinion, two contributing factors
here are market demand and better language proficiency.
Russia has particular pull factors for teachers (29%), engineers (32.3%), and economists
(23.8%). Germany attracts foreign language specialists (28.6%). Greece draws teachers,
economists and engineers. The USA receives economists, engineers, etc.
A recently returned migrants’ study22 revealed every fifth respondent had found a job prior to
arriving in their destination country; 44.1% had found employment immediately upon arrival;
21.6% had had to wait around for 3 months and 14.7% had needed longer to find a position.
It is worth mentioning that 52.8% of labour emigrants had found a job through relatives or
friends; 11.3% had managed to get employed independently; 12.3% had received help from
agencies and “black brokers”. Information bureaus, street and office announcements had
hardly assisted anyone in finding a position.
Only 36.6% of individuals had signed an official employment contract. Most emigrants (64%)
had made an oral agreement with their employer. The terms and conditions of most
employment contracts for labour migrants mainly define salary, working hours, number of days
off, food and board issues, etc. Adherence to international labour standards in contracts is rare,
especially in reference to working hours. The study revealed that every third respondent’s
working day had lasted more than 10 hours. Only every third person had worked 8 hours a
day. Other working terms had not been appealing either.
37
4.7. Social and living adaptation
All studies of Georgian labour migration bear evidence of labour emigrants’ social hardship in
the receiving countries. An analysis of their legal and social status proves the point. However,
it should be noted that a comprehensive analysis is not feasible since most labourers residing
abroad illegally, or former illegals as well as their relatives prefer not to participate in surveys;
consequently, it is difficult to record the precise number of illegals. In this respect, the data
22Labour Market and Returned Migrant Reintegration in Georgia. Tbilisi. 2012. pp.95-96.
38. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 463 – Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility Between …
provided by different studies may not be entirely accurate as they run into the same kind
problems while collecting the information. One of our focus groups, a member who returned
after nine years in the US said “I can only be grateful to my employers as they really made my
life easier there. I never lacked food and board and had no problems commuting once under
employment.” Another participant, who was temporary visiting Georgia also said that she fills
comfortable in the family she lives in Turkey. By some estimates, about 75% of the Georgian
emigrants are illegal residents. Table 11 shows official statistics about the distribution of
returned migrants by their legal status abroad.
Table 11: Distribution of returned migrants according to their legal status abroad (%)
38
Status %
Has (had) citizenship 5.6
Has (had) work authorization and permanent resident card 28.3
Has (had ) permanent resident card 6.6
Has (had) only temporary registration card 30.1
Did not have official status 25.5
Other 3.9
Total 100
Source: GeoStat, 2008
Besides having to adapt to new labour conditions abroad, emigrants also go through a social
adjustment period or even experience a culture shock. Even 20 years of work experience did
not really facilitate for the process of adaptation to a new social environment; the need to fit in
still leaves its marks on many emigrants. According to the 2003 IOM study, only 48% of
interviewees had managed to easily adapt to their new social and living conditions.
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39
Table 12: Distribution of labour migrants by level of adaptation to the social
environment according to recipient countries (%)
Country of
immigration
Adaptation
Russia
Greece
Germany
USA
Israel
Belgium
Other EU
Countries
Azerbaijan
Armenia
Other
countries
Total
Adapted easily
(to the way and
conditions of life)
48.8 32.2 47.3 52.2 50.0 30.0 48.7 44.4 47.3 70.4 48.0
Could not adapt
to living
conditions
2.4 16.7 2.2 2.2 - - 2.7 - - 3.7 2.0
Adapted with
difficulty
26.2 51.1 13.2 9.8 37.5 - 12.2 22.2 13.2 11.1 18.0
Adapted, but
found it difficult
to be away from
home & relatives
21.4 - 37.4 35.9 12.5 70.0 36.5 33.3 37.4 14.8 32.0
Other 1.2 - - - - - - - - - 0.0
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Source: Labour Migration from Georgia.IOM.2003.p.44.
As demonstrated above, Georgian labour migrants to Greece exhibit the least adaptability. To
some extent, belonging to a higher age group with a relatively low education level and having
jobs far beyond their qualifications could account for their lack of adjustment capabilities.
Some adaptation problems were also observed in Russia. The language barrier definitely is to
be blamed there as most labour migrants in this sample came from the provinces; as a result,
their lack of proficiency significantly reduced their chances of employment in their specialized
fields (engineers, teachers, lawyers). In addition, the exaggerated fear of migrants (migrant
phobia) felt by local residents, especially of people of Georgian origin, and special hostility
towards them make it hard for this category of emigrants to feel comfortable socially.
The poor living conditions often experienced by labour emigrants abroad do not make the local
environment appealing to them either. Most studies show that the living conditions of labour
migrants are hardly ever acceptable and often much worse overseas (often abnormally so)
than in their home country.
The returned migrants’ survey of 201123 shows that a quarter of migrants (nannies, caregivers,
housemaids) had lived in their employer’s home; 27.1% had lived in rented places with friends
23Labour Market and Returned Migrant Reintegration in Georgia. Tbilisi. 2012.
40. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 463 – Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility Between …
and 36.6% had stayed with a spouse, brother/sister, daughter/son, relative, or parent. Only
one out of ten individuals had resided alone.24
One of the key concerns of labour emigration is health safety in the destination country. Since
most immigrants are illegal or not quite legal residents, they basically do not qualify for health
care programs or social security. This lack of protection further complicates the health issues
of migrants. A recent study of the Migration Research Center25 shows that 82% of the
emigrated population had felt healthy at the time of departure but only 52% reported being fit
upon their return. Two-thirds of the interviewees had needed medical treatment abroad. Only
one out of 10 individuals had managed to get hospital treatment and 23.9% had received
ambulatory care; 42% had resorted to their own remedies and 19.4% had not been able to
afford any kind of treatment at all.
The main causes of health problems given were working under too much pressure (41.8%),
the stress of living in an unhealthy social environment (21.3%) and unfavourable working
conditions. Therefore, the health care system should be improved, both for returned migrants
and for those still working abroad. Moreover, their further rehabilitation should be facilitated
through the implementation of special programs by state organizations and NGOs working in
this sphere. It is vital to get health care providers abroad more involved in order to better protect
their immigrant population.
40
4.8. Incomes of migrants and remittances
Remittances have become one of the major external income sources in Georgia, not
surprisingly given the large share of the migrated population. According to the National Bank
of Georgia, the remittances in Georgia have even exceeded total FDI since 2009 (Figure 10).
The share of remittances in GDP picked up in 2011, when it constituted slightly more than 10%.
It should be noted that due to the use of different approaches and the difficulty of tracking
remittances, several sources come up with different data. We will introduce primarily data from
the National Bank of Georgia (NBG) as it is the most comprehensive and complete data.
24Labour Market and Returned Migrant Reintegration in Georgia. Tbilisi. 2012. p.94
25Labour Market and Returned Migrant Reintegration in Georgia. Tbilisi. 2012, pp. 96-97.
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
41
Figure 10: Remittances and FDI as a percentage of GDP
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Source: NBG
Remittances, % of GDP FDI, % of GDP Export, % of GDP
It should also be noted that the NBG only records money flows through official channels. It is
therefore likely that the NBG data slightly underestimates the remittances. For example, in
2008 remittances exceeded USD 1 billion, that is, 7.6% of Georgia’s GDP, taking into account
only remittances sent through official channels. Adding data on remittances sent home in 2008
through unofficial channels, provided by other sources,26 raises the figure to 10.6% of GDP.
The data on total remittances (as a percentage of GDP) already gives an idea of the importance
of remittances for Georgia. But disaggregating this data by country may give some valuable
additional insights.
First, it is evident that the Russian Federation is the major source of remittances for Georgia.
The amount of remittances from Russia has drastically increased over the last decade. While
Russia displaced the USA from first place back in 2002, its remittances continued to increase
(aside from the fall during the 2008 crisis) and today the flow of remittances from Russia is
much higher than from any other source (Figure 11).
26Aslamazisvili N. Datashvili V. Labour Migration and Remittances in Georgia: Advantages and
Disadvantages. Jr. Social Economics. 2009. #2.
42. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 463 – Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility Between …
Russian Federation
Greece
Italy
United States
Ukraine
Spain
Turkey
Kazakhstan
United Kingdom
Israel
42
Figure 11: Remittances by country and year, Top 10 countries of 2011 (thousands of
USD)
800 000
700 000
600 000
500 000
400 000
300 000
200 000
100 000
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: NBG
While displaying the data on remittances from Russia makes it difficult to track the trends of
other countries in Figure 11, Figure 12 shows that the remittances from the other top 10
countries have also been on the rise and at an accelerating rate. It is likewise interesting that,
although remittances from the USA generally continued to increase (almost threefold from
2000 to 2011), Russia clearly outpaced the USA and every other country. Moreover, over the
last years, Greece and Italy have emerged as number two and number three remittance
sources while Ukraine has also come closer to the USA (Figure 12). Despite the latter country’s
threefold increase mentioned above, in 2011 remittances from the USA constituted a mere 6%
of total remittances (compared to 45% in 2000) while remittances from Russia made up only
23% of the total in 2000 and yet reached the impressive figure of 52% in 2011 (Figure 13).
43. CASE Network Studies & Analyses No. 463 – Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility Between …
Greece
Italy
United States
Ukraine
Spain
Turkey
Kazakhstan
United Kingdom
Israel
43
Figure 12: Remittances by country and year, Top 10 of 2011 without Russia
(thousands of USD)
180 000
160 000
140 000
120 000
100 000
80 000
60 000
40 000
20 000
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: NBG
In order to explain the rapid growth of remittances from Russia since 2004, it is important to
bear in mind that the NBG only records the remittances sent through official channels. Prior to
the current administration, the borders with Russia were open and quite a large share of
remittances was sent through unofficial channels (people used to carry cash in their pockets).
The worsening political relationship of Georgia and Russia made border crossings more
difficult, leading to a shift in the flow of remittances towards official sources.
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Figure 13: Remittances by country as percentage of total remittances, 2000 vs. 2011
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2000 2011
Source: NBG
Another interesting point is apparent in Table 13, which depicts how the 2011 ranking of the
top 10 countries changed over the past decade.27
The table below shows that all the top 10 countries of 2011have held relatively high places
throughout the decade, indicating an unchanged preference among Georgian migrants toward
these countries. Countries that used to be in the top 10 but are no longer include Germany (3rd
place in 2000 but only 12th place in 2011), France (13th in 2011) and Armenia, which ranked
sixth in 2008 but ended up in 19th place after a curious, dramatic drop.
The case of Germany is particularly interesting. As was already pointed out above, Germany
(together with Greece) is the second top destination country for Georgian migrants among the
EU countries, after Greece, but a large share of the migrants in Germany are actually students
whose main purpose is to study. Even if they are combining study with work, as is common,
they do so primarily to cover their own expenses rather than to remit.
27 NBG introduced more diversified list of the countries in 2008, so on table 1 and also on pictures 3, 4,
5 and 6, there is no data about Italy before 2008 because Italy was not in the previous list.