Climate change is projected to slow progress on improving food security and meeting nutrition targets in Africa by 2030 according to projections. While population growth and rising incomes are expected to increase food demand, climate change impacts like changes in rainfall and increasing temperatures could reduce yields of crops like maize in some areas. Models estimate that climate change may increase the number of people at risk of hunger in Africa by 20-50 million without investments to improve agricultural resilience and productivity. However, increased investments in technologies, infrastructure, and R&D could help offset climate change impacts on food security through at least mid-century. The extent of impacts from climate change remains uncertain and will vary by location.

1. Climate change impacts on
agriculture and food security
in Africa
Keith Wiebe
International Food Policy Research Institute

2. Outline
• Climate change in context
• Exploring impacts
• What can be done?

3. Megatrends and challenges
Urbanization & rising
middle-income population
Technological innovations Emerging economies
De-globalization
Climate change
Changing diets
and nutrition
Source: Fan (2017)

4. Changing
patterns
of demand

5. Source: Adapted from Schellnhuber et al. (Nature Climate Change, 2016)
Climate change
Green
Revolution
Agriculture

6. Climate change impacts on yields
The example of rainfed maize
Maximum temperature (°C) Annual precipitation (mm)
Change in yields before economic adjustments Change in yields after economic adjustments
Source: IFPRI (2015). Note: Results for rainfed maize using HadGEM, RCP 8.5, DSSAT, IMPACT version 3.2, and SSP 2.

7. Impacts vary by location and time
The example of rainfed maize
Source: Tesfaye et al. (2015).

8. Crop yields in 2030
(relative to 2010, with climate change and investment)
Source: Rosegrant et al. (2017), Mason-D’Croz et al. (2016).
Note: No CC assumes no climate change (a constant 2005 climate); CC reflects a future with climate change using representative concentration
pathway (RCP) 8.5 and the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2—Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) general circulation model (Jones
and others 2011); COMP refers to a scenario with climate change and a comprehensive investment portfolio as described above.

9. Hunger in 2030
(population and share at risk)
Source: Rosegrant et al. (2017), Mason-D’Croz et al. (2016).
Note: No CC assumes no climate change (a constant 2005 climate); CC reflects a future with climate change using representative concentration
pathway (RCP) 8.5 and the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2—Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) general circulation model (Jones
and others 2011); COMP refers to a scenario with climate change and a comprehensive investment portfolio as described above.

10. Diet, nutrition and health
(progress relative to WHO targets, under baseline with climate change)
Source: Rosegrant et al. (2017).
Failed to
achieve target
Achieved
target
Surpassed
target

11. Investment scenarios
(percentage change relative to baseline in 2030 and 2050)
Source: Rosegrant et al. (2017).
Less Advantageous Neutral More Advantageous

12. Key messages
• Population and income will drive growth in demand
• Food and nutrition security are projected to improve
• Climate change will slow this progress
• Impacts are uncertain and vary by location, time, and scale
• Estimates exclude variability, extreme events, pests and diseases, sea level rise, etc.
• Final impacts differ from biophysical impacts
• Final impacts depend on choices – by individuals, businesses and governments
• Investments in agricultural R&D and infrastructure can offset climate
change impacts, at least through mid-century
• These findings reinforce what we already know to be sound
investments to improve productivity and resilience

13. For more information…

14. Thank you