The document discusses climate change scenarios and projections. It explains that climate change scenarios are used to project future greenhouse gas emissions and assess vulnerability to climate change under different pathways. Climate projections condense information from multiple climate models and emissions scenarios to characterize plausible future climates. National climate projections illustrate changes to a country's climate and form the basis for adaptation planning by considering the impact of different mitigation efforts.

1. Climate change and climate
scenario
Mohammed Sameer
2021-19-002
Dept of Agricultural
Statistics

2. Earth’s temperature has risen by 0.14° Fahrenheit (0.08°
Celsius) per decade since 1880, but the rate of warming since
1981 is more than twice that: 0.32° F (0.18° C) per decade.
2021 was the sixth-warmest year on record based on NOAA’s temperature data.

3. Global Temperature Anomalies from 1880 to 2021

4. • Given the tremendous size and heat capacity of the global
oceans, it takes a massive amount of heat energy to raise
Earth’s average yearly surface temperature even a small
amount.
• The roughly 2-degree Fahrenheit (1 degrees Celsius)
increase in global average surface temperature that has
occurred since the pre-industrial era (1880-1900) might
seem small, but it means a significant increase in
accumulated heat.

5. Green house effect
• The greenhouse effect is a process that occurs when gases in Earth's
atmosphere trap the Sun's heat. This process makes Earth much
warmer than it would be without an atmosphere.
How it works
• A greenhouse stays warm inside, even during the winter. In the
daytime, sunlight shines into the greenhouse and warms the plants
and air inside.
• At nighttime, it's colder outside, but the greenhouse stays pretty
warm inside. That's because the glass walls of the greenhouse trap
the Sun's heat.

6. Methane
Carbon dioxide
Nitrous oxide
ozone
Water vapor
Green house gases

8. Carbon dioxide level in atmosphere over time

9. Intergovernmental
Panel on
Climate
Change
(global temperature)
Average temperature rise
Over whole planet is
1.1 to 2.9 degree celsius

10. Global sea level increase
Water flows
into ocean

11. Increase in the amount of CO2 mostly comes from the burning
of the fossil fuels
Fossil fuels contain huge amount of carbon when they are
burnt they not only release huge amount of heat energy but
also CO2

12. • Solar energy hit the surface of the earth in the form of short wave radiation
• Some of which is reflected back as long wave radiation

13. • Green house gases traps the sun’s heat, more the green house gases more the
trapped heat
• Problem is we have now increases the rate at which green house gases are being
introduced into the atmosphere and therefore the rate at which warming occurs
• Problem is we have now increases the rate at which green house gases are being
introduced into the atmosphere and therefore the rate at which warming occurs

14. Effect of global warming on biodiversity
Temperature increase
Higher temperatures increase heat-related illnesses and can
make it more difficult to work and move around. Wildfires start
more easily and spread more rapidly when conditions are hotter.
More severe storms
Changes in temperature cause changes in rainfall. This results in
more severe and frequent storms. They cause flooding and
landslides, destroying homes and communities, and costing
billions of dollars.

15. Increased drought
Water is becoming scarcer in more regions. Droughts can stir
destructive sand and dust storms that can move billions of tons of
sand across continents. Deserts are expanding, reducing land for
growing food. Many people now face the threat of not having enough
water on a regular basis.
Rising ocean
The ocean soaks up most of the heat from global warming. This
melts ice sheets and raises sea levels, threatening coastal and
island communities.

16. Loss of species
Climate change poses risks to the survival of species on land and in the
ocean. These risks increase as temperatures climb. Forest fires,
extreme weather, and invasive pests and diseases are among many
threats. Some species will be able to relocate and survive, but others
will not.
Not enough food
Changes in climate and increases in extreme weather events are
among the reasons behind a global rise in hunger and poor nutrition.
Fisheries, crops, and livestock may be destroyed or become less
productive. Heat stress can diminish water and grasslands for grazing.

17. Anthrapogenic
Chemical fertilizers
Deforestation
Increase vehicles
Emissions of GhG
Indestries
Emission of Co2
Natural
Sunspot and solar
cycle
Ocean currents
Forest fire
Volcanic eruptions
Meteorites
Methane emissions
from animals

18. Climate change scenario
Climate change scenarios or socioeconomic scenarios are
projections of future green house gas emissions used by
analysts to assess future vulnerability to climate change.
scenarios and pathways are created by scientists to survey
any long term routes and explore the effectiveness of
mitigation and helps us understand what the future may hold
this will allow us to envision the future of human
environment system
These scenarios are designed to help stakeholders
understand what kinds of decisions will have meaningful
effects on climate change mitigation or adaptation

19. • Typically distributed as a single product, climate projections condense information
from multiple climate models, using multiple green house gas emission pathways to
characterize different yet coherent climate futures.
• Such a product highlights plausible climatic changes through the use of narratives,
graphs, maps, and perhaps raw data.
• Climate projections are often publicly available for policy makers, public and
private decision makers, as well as researchers to undertake further climate impact
studies, risk assessment, and climate change adaptation research.
• The projections are updated every few years, in order to incorporate new scientific
insights and improved climate models.

21. • National climate projections illustrate plausible changes to a country's climate
in the future.
• By using multiple emission scenarios, these projections highlight the impact of
different global mitigation efforts have on variables, including temperature,
precipitation and sunshine hours.
• Climate scientists strongly recommend the use of multiple emission scenarios
in order to ensure that decisions are robust to a range of climatic changes.
National climate projections form the basis of national climate adaptation
and climate resilience plans.

22. Thank you