This document provides an overview of climate variability and climate change impacts on agriculture in the Greater Mekong Sub-region. It discusses observed changes in temperature and precipitation trends based on historical data. Climate models project further increases in temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns, which could impact agriculture through changes in climate suitability and more frequent extreme weather events. The document emphasizes understanding historical climate variability and using downscaled climate projections to better assess impacts and develop adaptation strategies for agricultural systems in the region.
Presentation on behalf of the SA Weather Service presented during SA National Science Week - The harsh realities of climate change, 29 July to 2 August 2019.
Historical Geography expert John Slifko, PhD, presents a brief overview of the History of Climate Change over the years including new research and discoveries up to the 2013 year
Impact of climatic change on agricultureShashi Singh
Climate change and agriculture are interrelated processes, both of which take place on a global scale. Climate change affects agriculture in a number of ways, including through changes in average temperatures, rainfall, and climate extremes (e.g., heat waves); changes in pests and diseases; changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and ground-level ozone concentrations; changes in the nutritional quality of some foods; and changes in sea level.
To aid in understanding many complex interactions, scientists often build mathematical models that represent simple climate systems. This module highlights the fundamentals of climate models.
Methodological Framework for AssessingVulnerability to Climate Change by IPCCHILLFORT
IPCC Climate vulnerability Assessment procedure. The presentation was a part of College Assignment. I am thankful to ITPI journal where I got the topic for the same. The reference is:
Methodological Frameworks for Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change. Written by Rekha S Nair and Dr. Alka Bharat.
Institute of Town Planners, India Journal 8 - 1, 01 - 15, January - March 2011
Presentation on behalf of the SA Weather Service presented during SA National Science Week - The harsh realities of climate change, 29 July to 2 August 2019.
Historical Geography expert John Slifko, PhD, presents a brief overview of the History of Climate Change over the years including new research and discoveries up to the 2013 year
Impact of climatic change on agricultureShashi Singh
Climate change and agriculture are interrelated processes, both of which take place on a global scale. Climate change affects agriculture in a number of ways, including through changes in average temperatures, rainfall, and climate extremes (e.g., heat waves); changes in pests and diseases; changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and ground-level ozone concentrations; changes in the nutritional quality of some foods; and changes in sea level.
To aid in understanding many complex interactions, scientists often build mathematical models that represent simple climate systems. This module highlights the fundamentals of climate models.
Methodological Framework for AssessingVulnerability to Climate Change by IPCCHILLFORT
IPCC Climate vulnerability Assessment procedure. The presentation was a part of College Assignment. I am thankful to ITPI journal where I got the topic for the same. The reference is:
Methodological Frameworks for Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change. Written by Rekha S Nair and Dr. Alka Bharat.
Institute of Town Planners, India Journal 8 - 1, 01 - 15, January - March 2011
This is the 7th lesson the course - Climate Change & Global Environment taught at the Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities of the Rajarata University of Sri Lanka
Climate change and Agriculture: Impact Aadaptation and MitigationPragyaNaithani
Climate change refers to a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its Variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer). For the past some decades, the gaseous composition of earth’s atmosphere is undergoing a significant change, largely through increased emissions from energy, industry and agriculture sectors; widespread deforestation as well as fast changes in land use and land management practices. These anthropogenic activities are resulting in an increased emission of radiatively active gases, viz. carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), popularly known as the ‘greenhouse gases’ (GHGs)
These GHGs trap the outgoing infrared radiations from the earth’s surface and thus raise the temperature of the atmosphere. The global mean annual temperature at the end of the 20th century, as a result of GHG accumulation in the atmosphere, has increased by 0.4–0.7 ºC above that recorded at the end of the 19th century. The past 50 years have shown an increasing trend in temperature @ 0.13 °C/decade, while the rise in temperature during the past one and half decades has been much higher. The Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change has projected the temperature increase to be between 1.1 °C and 6.4 °C by the end of the 21st Century (IPCC, 2007). The global warming is expected to lead to other regional and global changes in the climate-related parameters such as rainfall, soil moisture, and sea level. Snow cover is also reported to be gradually decreasing.
Therefore, concerted efforts are required for mitigation and adaptation to reduce the vulnerability of agriculture to the adverse impacts of climate change and making it more resilient.
The adaptive capacity of poor farmers is limited because of subsistence agriculture and low level of formal education. Therefore, simple, economically viable and culturally acceptable adaptation strategies have to be developed and implemented. Furthermore, the transfer of knowledge as well as access to social, economic, institutional, and technical resources need to be provided and integrated within the existing resources of farmers.
This is the third lesson of the course ' Climate Change and Global Environment' conducted at the Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities, Rajarata University of Sri Lanka
This presentation talks about the impact on global water resources caused by climate change.
Presentation prepared with the help of Neha Rathi, a volunteer at India Water Portal.
Theme 4 - Climate Change Mitigation and AdaptationCIFOR-ICRAF
This presentation by Christopher Martius, Henry Neufeldt, Glenn Hyman and Laura Snook focuses on the objectives and structure of the climate change adaptation and mitigation program of the FTA Research Program, their evolution over time, the major accomplishments and the main obstacles and challenges.
Workshop held on 1st of April in Vientnane, Laos. Participants from national institurions (agriculture, education, planning) where joining presentations on the overview of climate variability in the Greater Mekong Sub-Region, using crop modeling and land use change analysis.
Presentation held by Jasper Batureine Mwesigwa from IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), at the learning event The Community Based Adaptation and Resilience in East and Southern Africa’s Drylands, held in Addis Abeba, Ethiopia by Care International Adaptation Learning Program for Africa (ALP), The CGIAR research program on Climate change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) and African Insect Science for Food and Health (ICIPE)
This is the 7th lesson the course - Climate Change & Global Environment taught at the Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities of the Rajarata University of Sri Lanka
Climate change and Agriculture: Impact Aadaptation and MitigationPragyaNaithani
Climate change refers to a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its Variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer). For the past some decades, the gaseous composition of earth’s atmosphere is undergoing a significant change, largely through increased emissions from energy, industry and agriculture sectors; widespread deforestation as well as fast changes in land use and land management practices. These anthropogenic activities are resulting in an increased emission of radiatively active gases, viz. carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), popularly known as the ‘greenhouse gases’ (GHGs)
These GHGs trap the outgoing infrared radiations from the earth’s surface and thus raise the temperature of the atmosphere. The global mean annual temperature at the end of the 20th century, as a result of GHG accumulation in the atmosphere, has increased by 0.4–0.7 ºC above that recorded at the end of the 19th century. The past 50 years have shown an increasing trend in temperature @ 0.13 °C/decade, while the rise in temperature during the past one and half decades has been much higher. The Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change has projected the temperature increase to be between 1.1 °C and 6.4 °C by the end of the 21st Century (IPCC, 2007). The global warming is expected to lead to other regional and global changes in the climate-related parameters such as rainfall, soil moisture, and sea level. Snow cover is also reported to be gradually decreasing.
Therefore, concerted efforts are required for mitigation and adaptation to reduce the vulnerability of agriculture to the adverse impacts of climate change and making it more resilient.
The adaptive capacity of poor farmers is limited because of subsistence agriculture and low level of formal education. Therefore, simple, economically viable and culturally acceptable adaptation strategies have to be developed and implemented. Furthermore, the transfer of knowledge as well as access to social, economic, institutional, and technical resources need to be provided and integrated within the existing resources of farmers.
This is the third lesson of the course ' Climate Change and Global Environment' conducted at the Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities, Rajarata University of Sri Lanka
This presentation talks about the impact on global water resources caused by climate change.
Presentation prepared with the help of Neha Rathi, a volunteer at India Water Portal.
Theme 4 - Climate Change Mitigation and AdaptationCIFOR-ICRAF
This presentation by Christopher Martius, Henry Neufeldt, Glenn Hyman and Laura Snook focuses on the objectives and structure of the climate change adaptation and mitigation program of the FTA Research Program, their evolution over time, the major accomplishments and the main obstacles and challenges.
Workshop held on 1st of April in Vientnane, Laos. Participants from national institurions (agriculture, education, planning) where joining presentations on the overview of climate variability in the Greater Mekong Sub-Region, using crop modeling and land use change analysis.
Presentation held by Jasper Batureine Mwesigwa from IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), at the learning event The Community Based Adaptation and Resilience in East and Southern Africa’s Drylands, held in Addis Abeba, Ethiopia by Care International Adaptation Learning Program for Africa (ALP), The CGIAR research program on Climate change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) and African Insect Science for Food and Health (ICIPE)
IPCC 2013 report on Climate Change - The Physical BasisGreenFacts
"Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis" is a comprehensive assessment of the physical aspects of climate change, which puts a focus on the elements that are relevant to understand past, document current, and project future climate change.
The report covers observations of changes in all components of the climate system and assess the current knowledge of various processes of the climate system.
Direct global-scale instrumental observation of the climate began in the middle of the 19th century, and reconstruction of the climate using proxies such as tree rings or the content of sediment layers extends the record much further in the past.
The present assessment uses a new set of new scenarios to explore the future impacts of climate change under a range of different possible emission pathways.
Chapter
Climate Change 2014
Synthesis Report
Summary for Policymakers
Summary for Policymakers
2
SPM
Introduction
This Synthesis Report is based on the reports of the three Working Groups of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC), including relevant Special Reports. It provides an integrated view of climate change as the final part of the IPCC’s
Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
This summary follows the structure of the longer report which addresses the following topics: Observed changes and their
causes; Future climate change, risks and impacts; Future pathways for adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development;
Adaptation and mitigation.
In the Synthesis Report, the certainty in key assessment findings is communicated as in the Working Group Reports and
Special Reports. It is based on the author teams’ evaluations of underlying scientific understanding and is expressed as a
qualitative level of confidence (from very low to very high) and, when possible, probabilistically with a quantified likelihood
(from exceptionally unlikely to virtually certain)1. Where appropriate, findings are also formulated as statements of fact with-
out using uncertainty qualifiers.
This report includes information relevant to Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC).
SPM 1. Observed Changes and their Causes
Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of green-
house gases are the highest in history. Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts
on human and natural systems. {1}
SPM 1.1 Observed changes in the climate system
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed
changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have
warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and sea level has risen. {1.1}
Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850. The
period from 1983 to 2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years in the Northern Hemisphere, where
such assessment is possible (medium confidence). The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature
data as calculated by a linear trend show a warming of 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06] °C 2 over the period 1880 to 2012, when multiple
independently produced datasets exist (Figure SPM.1a). {1.1.1, Figure 1.1}
In addition to robust multi-decadal warming, the globally averaged surface temperature exhibits substantial decadal and
interannual variability (Figure SPM.1a). Due to this natural variability, trends based on short records are very sensitive to the
beginning and end dates and do not in general reflect long-term climate trends. As one example, the rate of warming over
1 Each finding is grounded in an evaluation of underlying evidence and agreement. In many cases, a synthesis of evidence and agreement suppo.
This powerpoint presentation is produced by IPCC Working Group I for outreach purposes. It is based on the figures and approved text from the Working Group I Summary for Policymakers with some additional information on the process. The IPCC Working Group I website www.climatechange2013.org provides comprehensive access to all products generated by Working Group I during the fifth assessment cycle of the IPCC.
Extent of climate change over India & its projected impact on Indian agricult...India Water Portal
This special address by Dr Y E A Raj, Director General, Regional Meteorological Centre, Chennai made at the Kerala Enviroment Congress, Trivandrum organised by the Centre for Environment and Development discusses the impact of climate change on Indian agriculture
Fortalecimiento de capacidades para la producción, traducción, diseminación y uso efectivo de datos y perspectivas climáticas en el sector agropecuario en la región SICA.
Carlos Navarro-Racines
Evento de socialización de los logros alcanzados por CCAFS en Centroamérica en el marco de la gira del Grupo Técnico de Cambio Climático y Gestión Integral del Riesgo (GTCCGIR) del CAC.
Guatemala, diciembre 1, 2021
Servicios climáticos para la agricultura: Incorporando información agroclimática local en la toma de decisiones.
Feria Internacional del Medio Ambiente (FIMA)
Servicios climáticos para la agricultura: Incorporando información agroclimática local en la toma de decisiones
Webinar: Recursos De Información Para El Sector Agrícola En La Región De America Latina Y El Caribe.
Plataforma de Acción Climática en Agricultura de Latinoamérica y el Caribe (PLACA)
Presentación del Módulo 2 "El cambio climático, retos y desafíos para el desarrollo sostenible" del diplomado “El cambio climático y el sector agropecuario: desafíos y oportunidades para un desarrollo resiliente, con bajas emisiones y adaptado al clima en Centroamérica y República Dominicana.
Instituto Centroamericano de Administración Pública (ICAP)
En el marco del LXIV Foro del Clima de América Central y
el XLII Foro de Aplicaciones de los Pronósticos Climáticos
a la Seguridad Alimentaria y Nutricional
Academia Nacional de Servicios Climáticos - Guatemala
Diplomado en Ciencias del Clima y Servicios Climáticos del Sistema Guatemalteco de Ciencias del Cambio Climatico (SGCCC)
https://sgccc.org.gt/el-sgccc-es-el-anfitrion-del-diplomado-en-ciencias-del-clima-y-servicios-climaticos/
Navarro, C. Modelación climática; Cambio climático y agricultura
Clase para Curso de climatología de la Universidad de Ciencias Aplicadas y Ambientales (UDCA)
Abril 2021
Webinario: Modelación de cultivos para generar servicios
agroclimáticos (AquaCrop v.6)
LXI Foro del Clima de América Central
Jeferson Rodriguez Espinoza
Alejandra Esquivel
Carlos Navarro-Racines
J. Ramírez , D. Martínez, A. Martínez, J. Martínez, D. Giraldo, A. Muller, C. Bouroncle
Diplomado el enfoque territorios sostenibles adaptados al clima (TeSAC) en el corredor seco del oriente de Guatemala
Módulo 2 – Bloque 2 – Sesión 3
Carlos Navarro-Racines
E. Tünnermann, J. Ramírez, A. Martínez, J. Martínez
Diplomado “Inventario de Emisiones de Gases de Efecto Invernadero”, Universidad Nacional Agraria (UNA)
Módulo I Introducción. Procesos nacionales (políticas y convenios nacionales e internacionales)
Sesión 1 Introducción a la problemática del cambio climático global y observación de cambios
Importancia de los pronósticos aplicados al sector durante la crisis actual del COVID-19
XLI Foro de Aplicación de los Pronósticos Climáticos a la Seguridad Alimentaria y Nutricional: Perspectivas para el período Agosto - Octubre 2020 - 22 de julio del 2020
Presentación sobre las Mesas Técnicas Agroclimáticas en Centro América en el contexto de COVID-19, en el marco del webinar "Desafíos y oportunidades para alcanzar equidad de género en los servicios climáticos"
Training on Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA) and Local Technical Agroclimatic Comittees (MTA / LTAC) to the DeRISK project team.
February 11 -19 2020, CIAT Hanoi, Vietnam
Conversatorio virtual - ¿Cómo pueden la Agricultura Sostenible Adaptada al Clima (ASAC) ayudar a mitigar los impactos en los sistemas agrícolas de América Latina debido al COVID-19?
Miércoles 20 de mayo de 2020
• ¿Qué estrategias alternativas podrían funcionar para diseminar información agroclimática? y ¿cómo estas pueden ser aprovechadas para diseminar información relacionada con el Covid -19?
• ¿Cuáles creen que serán las perspectivas a futuro en relación a la seguridad alimentaria de las comunidades rurales de América Latina dada la coyuntura de la pandemia?
• ¿Qué cultivos son clave para evitar una crisis de seguridad alimentaria en la región dada la coyuntura?
• ¿Cuáles creen que son las principales oportunidades para que los agricultores adopten prácticas de Agricultura Sostenible Adaptada al Clima? … ¿Cree que la situación actual de Covid- 19 aumenta estas oportunidades? y ¿Cómo?
• ¿Cómo asegurar que no se desvíen recursos que son fundamentales para el desarrollo de las comunidades rurales debido a la pandemia?
• ¿Cómo desde la ciencia podemos ayudar a mitigar las repercusiones económicas que enfrentan y/o enfrentarán los agricultores debido al Covid-19?
• ¿Cómo cambia la coyuntura actual la manera de hacer investigación agrícola? ¿Qué deberíamos cambiar?
• ¿Qué cambios supondrá la pandemia para la cadena de abastecimientos de alimentos de los países de América Latina?
• ¿Qué oportunidades se presentan para cambiar las relaciones de producción entre el campo y las ciudades a raíz de la pandemia?
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Overview of climate variability and climate change in GMS
1. Overview of climate variability
and climate change
Eitzinger Anton, Giang Linh, Lefroy Rod
Laderach Peter, Carmona Stephania
Overview of climate variability and likely climate change impacts on
agriculture across the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS)
10 – 11 March, 2014, Hanoi, Vietnam
2. Climate science … many questions
and uncertain answers!
1. What is the evidence and observed changes in
the climate system and how reliable are climate
models and scenarios?
2. How to use climate models & future predictions
for Agriculture and modeling?
3. How can we adapt agriculture systems to
unknown future conditions?
3. The atmosphere and ocean
have warmed, the amounts
of snow and ice have
diminished, sea level has
risen, and the
concentrations of
greenhouse gases have
increased.
IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A.
Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
4. Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface
than any preceding decade since 1850. In the Northern Hemisphere, 1983–2012 was
likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years (medium confidence).
Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate
system, accounting for more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971 and
2010 (high confidence). It is virtually certain that the upper ocean (0−700 m)
warmed from 1971 to 2010.
IPCC AR5 report – observed changes in the climate system
Over the last two decades, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been losing mass, glaciers
have continued to shrink almost worldwide, and Arctic sea ice and Northern Hemisphere spring snow
cover have continued to decrease in extent (high confidence)
The rate of sea level rise since the mid-19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the
previous two millennia (high confidence). Over the period 1901–2010, global mean sea level rose by
0.19 [0.17 to 0.21] m.
The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, and nitrous oxide have increased
to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years. CO2 concentrations have increased by 40%
since pre-industrial times, primarily from fossil fuel emissions and secondarily from net land use
change emissions. The ocean has absorbed about 30% of the emitted anthropogenic carbon dioxide,
causing ocean acidification.
IPCC, 2013
5. Drivers of Climate Change Total radiative forcing is positive,
and has led to an uptake of energy
by the climate system. The largest
contribution to total radiative
forcing is caused by the increase in
the atmospheric concentration of
CO2 since 1750.
Climate models have improved since the AR4.
Models reproduce observed continental-scale
surface temperature patterns and trends over many
decades, including the more rapid warming since
the mid-20th century and the cooling immediately
following large volcanic eruptions.
(very high confidence).
This evidence for human influence has grown since
AR4. It is extremely likely that human influence has
been the dominant cause of the observed warming
since the mid-20th century.
Changes in the global water cycle in response to the
warming over the 21st century will not be uniform.
The contrast in precipitation between wet and dry
regions and between wet and dry seasons will
increase, although there may be regional exceptions.
IPCC, 2013
6. IPCC Global-scale assessment of recent observed changes, human
contribution to the changes, and projected further changes
IPCC, 2013
7. Observed ocean and surface temperature anomaly
• Annual average
• Decadal average
• Contribution to change
IPCC, 2013
8. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
… former Emission Scenarios (SRES)
concentrations of the full suite of greenhouse gases and aerosols
and chemically active gases, as well as land use/land cover
RCP 8.5
(high emissions)
RCP 6.0
RCP 4.5
RCP 2.6
(low emissions)
IPCC, 2013
10. AR 5 projected regional changes:
Southeast Asia
“Reduced precipitation in Indonesia during Jul-
Oct. due to the pattern of Indian Ocean
warming; increased rainfall extremes of landfall
cyclones on the coasts of the South China
Sea, Gulf of Thailand, and Andaman Sea.”
IPCC, 2013
11. How to use climate models & future
predictions for Agriculture and modeling?
12. To know the uncertainty of
the data is important!
We don’t know… What are the
conditions in 30, 50, 100 years?
The different emission scenarios are
not important ... by 2030 the
difference between the
concentration pathways is minimal.
Understand variability and precise
forecasting is important!
2030
For agriculture:
IPCC, 2013
13. Climate variability
• There is still uncertainty on climate models
when it comes to variability
• Historical observations of weather and climate
can help to understand better variability
• We need a better forecasting for Agriculture
15. • Recent studies show the emergence of general
trends in the climate of the GMS.
• Average daily temperatures across Southeast Asia
have increased
• Precipitation patterns are quite complex across
Southeast Asia.
• In the Greater Mekong region from 1961 to 1998,
although the number of extreme rainfall events
decreased, the amount of rain falling during these
events increased (Manton et al 2001).
OVERVIEW
16. CRU TS 3.10.01
The CRU TS 3.10.01 Climate dataset has been produced by the
Climatic Research Unit (CRU) of University of East Anglia.
The database comprises 5583 station records of which 4842 have
enough data for the 1961-1990 period to calculate estimate the
average temperatures for this period.
17. Climate grids are constructed for nine climate variables
for the period 1901-2009
- Temperature,
- Diurnal temperature range,
- Daily minimum temperature,
- Maximum temperatures,
- Precipitation,
- Wet-day frequency,
- Frost-day frequency,
- Vapor pressure, and
- Cloud cover.
CRU TS 3.10.01
18. 842 points in GMS were
collected from CRU TS 3.10.01 which
covers from 1901 to 2009, globally at
0.5 degree spatial resolution on land
area, including:
• Precipitation
• Mean temperature
• Minimum temperature
• Maximum temperature
19. • Mean temperature
increased by between 1.8 ˚C
and 2 ˚C.
• Maximum temperature rose
by between 1.7˚C and 2.2˚C.
• Minimum temperature grew
by between 1.6˚C and 2.2˚C.
20. The region has seen more hot
days and warm nights and
fewer cool days and nights.
21. • Total annual rainfall
will increase by 5-25%
across the northern
part of the Mekong
region in the next few
decades.
• Heavier storms during
the wet season will
account for the
regional increase
because drier dry
seasons are predicted
(TKK & SEA START RC
2009).
22. The trends in rainfall had
the range of highly
variable
23. Conclusion
• In spite of a few station in South-East Asia , CRU
data is useful to get overview of the climate
change in the long time,
• The highest temperature in research area
concentrate in the south, and recorded the
significant increase in South of Cambodia and
South-East of Thailand,
• The shoreline area receive the large amount of
precipitation (Especially in Middle of Vietnam,
Myanmar, and Thailand)
28. Statistical downscaling of climate models
• Use anomalies and discard baselines in GCMs
– Climate baseline: WorldClim
– Used in the majority of studies
– Takes original GCM timeseries
– Calculates averages over a baseline and future periods (i.e.
2020s, 2050s)
– Compute anomalies
– Spline interpolation of anomalies
– Sum anomalies to WorldClim
30. • Bio1 = Annual mean temperature
• Bio2 = Mean diurnal range (Mean of monthly (max temp - min temp))
• Bio3 = Isothermality (Bio2/Bio7) (* 100)
• Bio4 = Temperature seasonality (standard deviation *100)
• Bio5 = Maximum temperature of warmest month
• Bio6 = Minimum temperature of coldest month
• Bio7 = Temperature Annual Range (Bio5 – Bi06)
• Bio8 = Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter
• Bio9 = Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter
• Bio10 = Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter
• Bio11 = Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter
• Bio12 = Annual Precipitation
• Bio13 = Precipitation of Wettest Month
• Bio14 = Precipitation of Driest Month
• Bio15 = Precipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation)
• Bio16 = Precipitation of Wettest Quarter
• Bio17 = Precipitation of Driest Quarter
• Bio18 = Precipitation of Warmest Quarter
• Bio19 = Precipitation of Coldest Quarter
Changes from 24 climate models using climate clusters for GMS
* X current annual mean temperature, X current annual rainfall, source http://worldclim.org
x x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
32. Impacts on coffee production in Nicaragua Coffee under pressure
CUP
Nicaragua, Country
• Increasing Temperatures
during dry season
• Excess precipitation in wet
season, long dry season
• Increasing precipitation
seasonality
Nicaragua, above 1000m
• Increasing Temperatures during dry season
• Current annual precipitation optimal
• Stronger droughts negative
• At high elevations increasing max temperatures
positive
33. Specific vulnerability profiles of farmers in Nicaragua Coffee under pressure
CUP
Matagalpa is characterized by high
exposure (coffee suitability
decreases drastically) high
sensitivity (high variability in
yields) and low adaptive capacity
(poor access to credit, poor
knowledge on pest and disease
management and low
diversification).
The adaptation strategy focuses
on diversification, capacity
building, strengthening of the
organizations and on the
enforcement of environmental
laws and development policies for
the coffee sector.
35. Simulación del "Yield" presente
siembra: Primera (en mayo), 2 suelos
genéricos, 2 fertilizantes, promedio de
30 años de clima (worldclim), sin riego.
Rendimientos esperados en grandes
partes entre 500 - 700 kg/ha
Simulación del futuro 2020
Con predicciones del clima (GCM) a la
década 2020 (promedio entre 2010-
2039). Reducción del rendimiento en
las zonas del corredor seco de
Nicaragua y Honduras.
Cambio hasta -75% de rendimiento
esperado (sin estrategias) en 2020
Zonas de alta producción
Identificación de Zonas focales para
estrategias de adaptación con
intensificación (Adaptation
Spots), diversificación (Hot Spots) y
conservación (Pressure Spots)
Posibles estrategias de adaptación: Germoplasma con más
resistencia al calor y sequía, riego con sistemas de cosecha de
agua durante la época de alta lluvia, diversificación a otros
sistemas de producción, recuperación de suelos degradados, ...
Bean systems in Central America
Project: Tortillas on the Roaster:
36. Deforestation Risk!
Less areas available for
agriculture
Diversification options in mid-
altitudes
Climate change impact assessment for Haiti
New areas that need strategic
intensification
37. Transformative adaptation of current production
systems to climate resilient systems in the future
When, where, how and with whom?
How can we adapt agriculture systems to unknown future conditions?
38. POLICY
constraints
SUPPLY CHAIN
constraints
IPCC GCM scenario outputs (AR5)
Changed situation
Accelerated adoption of
climate resilient practices
Current situation Production &
social constraints to dealing with
climate change & variability
Baseline
domains
Future
scenarios
Experimental
Application domains
Benefit analysis
Science
Policy
Improved
climate data
Land health indicators
(CIAT soils)
Community
Participatory
workshops
Surveys
Trials /
Farm visits
National
Station data
(Historical)
Weather
prognostics
(seasonal)
Integrated crop-modelling
Agronomic
management
(CIAT Agro biodiversity)
CSA practices
CSA
Analogues
Best practice
Triple-win
Eco-
systems
Exposure
Sensitivity
Adaptive
Capacity
The local perspective
Community participation
Trade-
offs
Land use
change
market
Vulnerability
Food security
smallholder global
gender
Policy briefs
Scientific
publication
Manuals site-specific
CSA practices
Policy networking
BEHAVIOURIAL
constraints
(culture, social)