Climate Change & Water Resources Impacts
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Climate change is causing changes around the world like receding glaciers and ice shelves. Greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere are rising and causing the Earth's temperature to increase. Burning fossil fuels for energy and transportation, deforestation, agriculture, and waste are major contributors to increasing greenhouse gases. Rising global temperatures will lead to changes in precipitation patterns, sea level rise, and more extreme weather that threaten water resources and could displace millions of people. Solutions include transitioning to renewable energy, green buildings, afforestation, water conservation, and spreading awareness.
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Climate Change & Water Resources Impacts
- 1. Climate change and Water resources
- 2. Changes are being seen around the world
- 3. Upsala glacier, Patagonia 2004 Source: Greenpeace 1928
- 5. Larsen B ice shelf, West Antarctica Source: NASA 3250 square km of ice 220 m thick broke off
- 6. Sea levels are rising Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/go_greener_oz/3047060508/
- 7. Drought in Amazon river, 2005 Source: Greenpeace
- 8. All is not well
- 9. Why is this happening?
- 10. Source: Vital Climate Graphics, Grid Arendal / UNEP Gases like carbon dioxide are essential for life on Earth.
- 11. They trap some of the heat (infra-red radiations) leaving the Earth. Without them, Earth’s average temperature would be -20 0 C
- 12. They are called Green House Gases (GHGs)
- 14. Some are natural some man-made
- 16. The Earth has natural systems that heat it and other natural systems that act as cooling factors. Thus an equilibrium is maintained. But there is an imbalance being created and the factors that heat the Earth are becoming more prominent.
- 17. Atmospheric CO 2 has increased from a pre-industrial concentration of about 280 ppmv to about 367 ppmv at present
- 18. Methane and nitrous oxide fare no better
- 19. To learn more about the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere before the era of instruments and measurements, scientists are analyzing gases trapped in ice And we find that…….
- 20. The concentrations of greenhouse gases that we are seeing now, has not been witnessed in the past 600000 years Source: IPCC (2007)
- 21. We’re blanketing the Earth with more and more of these gases and the ‘ball is going warm’ Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/perryham/3577638548/
- 22. Eleven of the last twelve years were the warmest since thermometer records began in 1850 14 13.2 14.8
- 23. A hot future awaits us Global mean surface temperature could rise between 1 - 4.5 0 C by 2100
- 24. What is increasing GHGs?
- 26. Forests are becoming croplands to feed our growing millions. Fewer trees, more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
- 27. Intensification of agriculture to feed the growing millions Source: IGBP Global fertilizer consumption More nitrous oxide released
- 28. Changing lifestyles Source: http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/the-richer-we-get-the-more-we-discard-human-consumption-waste-and-living-standards Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal More methane generated by anaerobic decomposition of wastes in landfills
- 30. Increasing industrialization to meet our growing demands
- 31. Increased demand for electricity From domestic consumers From industries From the agriculture sector
- 32. Electricity generation Source: International Energy Agency 0.82 kg of CO 2 produced for every unit of electricity generated from coal. That’s approx. 1 kg of CO 2 produced for every unit of electricity we use.
- 33. Energy use Source: CDIAC
- 34. What changes do scientists predict?
- 36. How will this affect our water resources
- 38. Precipitation patterns will change There may be more intense rainfall on rainy days, resulting in floods and more dry days in a year, causing drought
- 39. Damages due to floods has cost India over Rs 800 crore every year
- 41. 350 million Indians have been affected badly due to drought in past ten years
- 43. Groundwater – it’s finite! 78% of assessed groundwater units in Delhi are over-exploited (extraction > recharge)
- 44. India will reach a state of water stress before 2025
- 46. Sea level will be a minimum of 40 cm higher than today by the end of 21st century Source: TERI 1996 11 % of Bangladesh's coastal land is likely go underwater, creating 7 to 10 million climate refugees
- 48. What is the impact of a rise in sea levels? Islands at low levels, such as Lakshadweep, can be flooded. Entire ecosystems, such as the mangroves, can be wiped out.
- 49. This image shows the change in pH of the oceans over the past 300 years. The brighter the color, the more the decrease in pH.
- 52. The solution is in our hands
- 54. Acknowledgements Ms Ulka Kelkar Ms Neha Rathi
Editor's Notes
- The weather in any place refers to the condition outdoors over a short period of time. It can change within minutes, hours or a day. It can be sunny in the morning and raining heavily in the evening. Weather refers to daily changes in precipitation, barometric pressure, temperature, and wind conditions in a given location. Climate, however, refers to atmospheric conditions in that place over relatively long periods of time. It is a synthesis of weather conditions over years and describes average or most common conditions, regular weather sequences like summer, monsoons, and winter and extremes, if any. So Bangalore is known for its mild climate, Chennai and Mumbai for their hot and humid climate, Delhi for its harsh summers and winters and Cherrapunji for its rainy climate. Over the past few years we have been noticing changes in the climatic conditions in many places across the world - severe heat waves, unusually high rainfall over short periods of time, snowfalls in places that do not usually have them and an increase in the number and intensity of hurricanes, typhoons and floods. What is happening and are we responsible?
- Evidence of glacier retreat has been found across the world - in the Himalayas in Asia, the Alps in Europe, Rockies and Alaskan glaciers in North America, the Andean glaciers in South America, tropical and sub tropical glaciers in Oceania and New Zealand etc.
- Evidence of glacier retreat has been found across the world - in the Himalayas in Asia, the Alps in Europe, Rockies and Alaskan glaciers in North America, the Andean glaciers in South America, tropical and sub tropical glaciers in Oceania and New Zealand etc.
- Over a period of 3 weeks (Feb – March 2002) the Larsen B ice shelf of the Antarctic peninsula collapsed and broke up. 3,250 km² of ice ( a little smaller than the state of Goa) which was 220 m thick (3 times the height of Qutub Minar) disintegrated. Warm currents ate away the underside of the shelf. Ponds of meltwater formed on the surface during the near 24 hours of daylight in the summertime. This water flowed down into cracks and, acting like a multitude of wedges, levered the shelf apart.
- Sea level rise in the 20 th century has been substantially higher than that in the last few thousand years. Mean sea level has been increasing at the rate of 1.7 – 1.8 mms/year. Most of this rise is attributed to (a) the thermal expansion of warmer oceans (b) increased melting of mountain glaciers and (c) the melting of the Antarctic / Greenland / Arctic ice-shelves. Since 1993, there has been an even higher recorded sea level rise averaging 2.8 mm/yr (satellite measurements). Source: http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/gornitz_09/
- At the heart of the climate change issue is the phenomena of global warming and the greenhouse effect. Earth supports life, thanks to its gaseous atmosphere, which perform an important function of trapping the heat that leaves the Earth’s surface. This regulates the planet’s average temperature and makes it suitable for life. These gases are called Green House Gases (GHGs) and one of the chief GHGs is carbon dioxide. The concentration of these greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is important to maintain the balance in Earth systems.
- In addition to carbon dioxide, other naturally occurring GHGs are methane, nitrous oxide, and water vapour. Methane is released from inundated lands such as marshes and from cattle dung. Humans are creating new GHGs like Hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons. Global Warming Potential (GWP) is a measure of how much heat a greenhouse gas can trap as compared to carbon dioxide. Man made green house gases have significant GWPs when compared to CO 2 and they remain in the atmosphere for a very long time.
- The Earth has natural systems that heat it and other natural systems that act as cooling factors. Volcanic eruptions, forest fires, dust storms all introduce aerosols or particles into the atmosphere that reflect the incident sunlight and act as cooling agents. Ice and snow also reflects incident sunlight and reduce the temperature of the Earth. Greenhouse gases heat the Earth and some other factors cool it. Thus an equilibrium is maintained. But there is an imbalance being created and the factors that heat the Earth are becoming more prominent.
- Since the mid 1800s, which is when the industrial revolution started, there has been a steady increase in CO 2 levels in the atmosphere and this is most worrisome.
- Methane and Nitrous oxide fare no better.
- Climate scientists are studying ice samples to understand atmospheric conditions before measurement systems were in place. Over a period of many years ice and snow form many layers and during the build up they trap air bubbles of previous times. Analysis of these air bubbles is helping us get an idea of green house gas concentrations during earlier years.
- The sharp increase in the concentration of natural greenhouse gases is noticeable since the past 150 years and this data only reinforces the fact that human activities are responsible for this rise. Climate data models have also shown that actual increase in greenhouse gas emissions and global temperatures more closely follow the curves that include natural and anthropogenic (man-made) forcing as against only natural forcing.
- The increase in the concentration of gases that trap heat within the Earth’s atmosphere is resulting in global warming. Global warming is an anagram of ‘ball is going warm’
- The 10 warmest years on record between 1880-2008 are: 1 – 2005 2 – 1998 3 – 2002 4 – 2003 5 – 2006 6 – 2007 7 – 2004 8 – 2001 9 – 2008 10 - 1997
- Climate models calculate that the global mean surface temperature could rise by about 1 to 4.5 degrees centigrade by 2100.
- The world’s population is increasing. By 2050, we may have 9.2 billion people living on the planet as against 2.3 billion in 1940. Between 1940 and 1990, the world’s population more than doubled from 2.3 billion to 5.3 billion people. Between 2005 and 2050, world population is further expected to increase by 2.7 billion people. More number of people, but the same amount of natural resources.
- We are clearing more forests to make space for increased agriculture. This is required to feed the growing population.
- Not only is the area under agriculture increasing, the way we do agriculture is also changing. Increased use of fertilizers and pesticides ensure better yield in the present, but harm our soil and water resources and increase the amount of nitrous oxide released in the air. These will have adverse impacts in the future.
- The population is increasing and so is the purchasing power of people. A use and throw culture now pervades our lifestyles. Municipal solid waste generation is increasing in every place. If burnt, carbon dioxide is released into the atmosphere along with a range of toxic gases. If left to decompose in a landfill, methane is generated due to anaerobic decomposition. Methane is 21 times more potent than carbon dioxide as a green house gas.
- The passenger vehicle industry in India is growing steadily
- We blame industry for the climate problem today, but little do we realize that we drive industrial production. It is our demand for goods and services that industries are trying to meet.
- Electricity generation is increasing year by year, yet it cannot satisfy the growing demands from domestic consumers, the industrial sector and the farmers who require electricity for irrigation apart from various other activities. We are the root cause of this growing demand, since our demands drive industrial and agricultural production.
- Little do we realize that a flick of a switch in our homes also contributes to increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Most of the electricity in India is generated in thermal power plants, which burn coal. The process of electricity generation releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The number of units one household consumes in a month can be found out from the electricity bills. That is approximately the amount of carbon dioxide emissions that one household is responsible for, in a month. This does not include the electricity used to produce and bring our food to our table or the electricity required to produce and transport the various things we buy. When demand reduces, production from thermal power plants reduces and hence greenhouse gas emissions reduce.
- With increased population, growing urbanization and changing lifestyles, we are seeing a sharp increase in the use of all kinds of fossil fuels.
- According to the IPCC, rainfall patterns are likely to be modified with some regions becoming more arid and others experiencing more rainfalls. Globally the frequency of heavy precipitation has increased, drought events have intensified, have been more frequent and taken place in wider areas, especially in tropics and subtropics. Many parts of India are flood-prone, and extreme precipitation events, such as flash floods and torrential rains, have become increasingly common in central India as well as many urban centres over the past few decades.
- In 2009 one of the worst flash floods in decades in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka affected an estimated total of 2 million people. Thousands were marooned without food and drinking water. On 26 th and 27 th July 2005, Mumbai city received 994 mm of rainfall over a period of 24 hours. The previous record high rainfall in a 24-hour period for the city was 575 mm, in 1974. October 2005 was recorded as the wettest month in Bangalore over a 50 year period. Assam saw its worst flooding in 50 years in July 2003. Data from India's ministry of water resources shows that on an average, annual loss from floods in India is: Area affected: 7.351 million hectares No. of people affected 40.967 million Human lives lost 1,793 Cattle lost 85,599 Houses damaged 1,452,904 Value of houses damaged 3.7 billion rupees Crop area damaged 3.725 million hectares Value of crop damaged 10,95132 billion rupees Public Utilities damaged 11,86 billion rupees Total losses 27,06 billion rupees ($575 million). Source: http://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-48687120100521 Central Water Commission has compiled the damage figures due to flood from 1953 to 2004 on the basis of which yearly average loss to life is reported to be equal to 1590 with damage to public utilities Rs. 806.78 crore. Apart from the above, there has been damages to standing crops, dwelling units, livestock, etc. There has been intangible loss as well. Source: http://wrmin.nic.in/index2.asp?sublinkid=352&langid=1&slid=353
- The country has suffered a financial loss of about 14,98,722 US$ and 350 million people have been affected badly due to drought in past ten years (Santosh Kumar, Yojna, June2009). Source: http://nidm.gov.in/idmc2/PDF/Abstracts/Drought.pdf The drought in 2002, one of the severest in the 130 year history of India affected 56% of the geographical area and the livelihoods of 300 million people in 18 states. About 150 million cattle were affected and the govt alloted a financial relief of Rs 20,000 crores Source: http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/Publications/Working_Papers/working/WOR84.pdf
- Out of 5723 numbers of assessment administrative units (Blocks/Taluks/ Mandals/Watershed), 839 units are “overexploited” (the annual ground water extraction exceeds the annual replenishable resource), 226 units are “critical” (the stage of ground water development is above 90 per cent and less than 100 per cent of annual replenishable resource with significant decline in long term water level trend in both pre-monsoon and post-monsoon period), 550 units are “semi-critical” (the stage of ground water development is more than 70 per cent), 4078 units are “safe” and 30 units are “saline”. Source: http://wrmin.nic.in/index3.asp?sslid=418&subsublinkid=320&langid=1 Source for Delhi data: http://wrmin.nic.in/writereaddata/linkimages/AnnxII8539329137.pdf. This site also gives data for all states and UTs. Data can be changed for these states and UTs as required.
- Water stress is cited as one of the most pressing environmental problem facing the region. In India, gross per capita water availability will decline from around 1,820 cubic metres a year to as low as around 1,140 cubic metres a year in 2050. Water availability in any region or country is reflected by the ‘Water Stress Index’ (Falkenmark and Widstrand 1992), which is based on a minimum per capita water requirement. An area is said to be water stressed if the annual per capita availability of water is below 1700 cubic metres. Water scarcity is a scenario when the annual per capita availability reduces to below 1000 cubic metres and absolute scarcity is when it goes below 500 cubic metres.
- The potential impacts of one metre sea-level rise include inundation of 5,763 km 2 in India. A sea-level rise of just 400 mm in the Bay of Bengal would put 11 % of Bangladesh's coastal land underwater, creating 7 to 10 million climate refugees
- The carbon dioxide in the atmosphere dissolves in the water to form carbonic acid. The shells of clams, crabs etc. can actually dissolve by the increasing pH.