Flooding Farming & Climate Change - Engagement of Gloucestershire Farmers
•Download as PPT, PDF•
2 likes•2,223 views
Are farmers in Gloucestershire who have directly experienced flood events, more likely to engage with climate change as a risk issue?
Recommended
More Related Content
What's hot
What's hot (20)
Viewers also liked
Viewers also liked (20)
Similar to Flooding Farming & Climate Change - Engagement of Gloucestershire Farmers
Similar to Flooding Farming & Climate Change - Engagement of Gloucestershire Farmers (20)
More from Countryside and Community Research Institute
More from Countryside and Community Research Institute (20)
Recently uploaded
Recently uploaded (20)
Flooding Farming & Climate Change - Engagement of Gloucestershire Farmers
- 1. Are farmers in Gloucestershire who have directly experienced flood events, more likely to engage with climate change as a risk issue? Alice Hamilton-Webb PhD, Royal Agricultural University Supervision by Dr Rhiannon Fisher, Dr Louise Manning and Dr John Conway Royal Agricultural University alice.hamilton-webb@rau.ac.uk
- 2. Overview • Aim and objectives • Background and rationale • Flood risk and climate change – why Gloucestershire? • Postal survey and headline findings • Plans for next research phase….
- 3. Aim and Objectives AIM: To explore farmers’ attitudes and response behaviour towards climate change risk in relation to their experiences of flooding in Gloucestershire. OBJECTIVES: 1)To explore and critically review previous research and literature on flooding, climate change, and farmers’ attitudes to risk and their response behaviour 2)To undertake a quantitative assessment of Gloucestershire farmers’ attitudes and responses to climate change risk, and experience of flood risk as a causal factor 3)To undertake a quantitative assessment of further factors that impact on Gloucestershire farmers’ attitudes and responses to climate change risk 4)To use a multi-method approach to link qualitative and quantitative data in order to reflect on farmer engagement with flooding and climate change as issues that impact on their farming practice 5)To examine the influence of geographical factors on farmers attitudes and their response behaviour to flooding and risk management within the study group 6)To determine farmer engagement in relation to flood experience as a causal factor and whether they intend to change or have already adapted their management practices on their farms to mitigate the impact of climate change
- 4. Why? Climate Change risk Farmers’ engagement with climate change risk Flooding used to encourage action against climate change Research gap and important implications
- 5. Climate Change risk •Latest IPCC Assessment Report (2014): Despite some ongoing debate, paleoclimate data does support the notion that it is now extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. •Agriculture as a cause of climate change - 43% of total methane emissions 84% of total nitrous oxide emissions (Defra 2011). •Industry’s capacity to mitigate – UK agricultural sector set a target to reduce GHG emissions by 80% by 2050 (AHDB)
- 6. Why? Climate Change risk Farmers’ engagement with climate change risk Flooding used to encourage action against climate change Research gap and important implications
- 7. Farmers’ engagement with climate change • Current lack of engagement - 71% not taking any actions to adapt on their farm but 53% are reducing GHG emissions – financially motivated (Wiles 2012) • Defra Farm Practices Survey 2013 – Energy generation (16%), reducing emissions (55%) and adapting (64%) – associated with various farmer characteristics • Climate change is psychologically distant
- 8. Why? Climate Change risk Farmers’ engagement with climate change risk Flooding used to encourage action against climate change Research gap and important implications
- 9. Flooding used to encourage action against climate change • Focus of the research – local extreme events • Relationship between flood experience and greater concern for climate change (Whitmarsh 2008 and Capstick et al 2012) • Indirect relationship between flood experience and behavioural intention towards climate change response (Spence and Pidgeon 2011) • Actual response?
- 10. Why? Climate Change risk Farmers’ engagement with climate change risk Flooding used to encourage action against climate change Research gap and important implications
- 11. • Little to no research in the UK to look at how farmers have been impacted by flooding and attitudes/behaviour initiated • Build on existing knowledge of farmer engagement with climate change and add to wider research on farmer behaviour – theories and models Research gap and important implications
- 12. Gloucestershire • Varied landscape and rich flood history Cotswolds Severn ValeForest of Dean 2012 2013
- 13. Climate change and flooding • Thermodynamic principles = intensification of hydrological cycle • Rise in frequency and magnitude of river flows in the UK – fluvial flood risk to increase accordingly • UKCIP (2009) – winters will become wetter and summers drier and hotter • The relationship is complex – other contributing factors
- 14. Recent flood history Recent history points to strong trend of more frequent flooding – long term examination shows numerous fluctuations throughout 21st century Source: Hannaford and Buys (2012)
- 16. Postal Survey 20% response rate and 14.3% usable response rate = 200 responses • Farm/farmer characteristics • Perception towards risk (from animal disease, market volatility, crop disease, extreme weather) • Experience of flood risk – type, impacts/losses, specific to 2007/2012 events • Perception of flood risk – personal and to business (and of cause of flooding) • Flood risk response – type of response • Attitude towards climate change risk – perception (cause, impact) , concern • Response towards climate change risk – mitigation and
- 17. Headline results: Descriptive analysis Farm and Farmer characteristics: majority male farm owners, belonging to livestock or mixed farmers, over 45 years of age Experience of flood risk: 60.5% reported flooded land. Varied in extent of impact - most commonly suffered loss of yield, crop quality and fodder supplies. Perception of flood risk: Over half of respondents do not believe they will be ‘impacted’ by flooding in the future. Perceived cause of flooding: Half of respondents acknowledge that climate change is at least a moderate cause of recent UK flooding
- 18. Headline results: Descriptive analysis • Flood risk response: The majority (67%) have taken no action to adapt to or mitigate against flooding, • Attitude towards climate change risk: 57.5% are ‘not at all’ or only ‘slightly concerned’ 57% believe that any climate change is due to a mixture of natural and anthropogenic factors. • Climate change risk response: undertaking adaptation or mitigation activities in direct response to the potential problem was very minimal; instead respondents reported that if they were undertaking the stated activities, it would have been part of normal practice.
- 19. Headline findings: Multivariate analysis Risk Perception 1) Farmers who perceive one risk to be relatively high, are likely to have similar attitudes to other risks 2) Extreme weather is associated with climate change 3) Farmers who had been impacted to a greater extent by flooding are more likely to rate it as a greater threat to business 4) Farmers who had been impacted to a greater extent by flooding ,expressed greater concern about climate change, and also believed climate change was a more major cause of recent UK flooding 5) Farmers who had land flooded in the past are more likely to believe their land is currently affected by climate change, and are more likely to rate the risk from it as higher
- 20. Headline findings: Multivariate analysis Risk Response Farmers who have been impacted by certain losses/impacts from flooding are more likely to take actions to respond to flood risk, and climate change Farmers who are more concerned about climate change and believe it is affecting their farm/land are more likely to undertake a greater number of mitigation measures If a farmer is responding to flood risk, it is likely he is also responding to climate change
- 21. Association with location •Geographical location is associated with experience of, perception of, and response to flood risk Severn Vale – farmers significantly more likely to report impacts from flooding (including greater impact from floods of 07/12) and perceive flooding as a greater threat to business. Also significantly more likely to develop a flood emergency management plan and meet with other farmers to discuss flood strategies
- 22. Further questions raised… •Are farmers averse to multiple risks, in terms of attitude? •Do farmers spontaneously associate extreme weather and flooding with climate change? •Does experience of flooding automatically mean that farmers perceive its risk as higher? •Do farmers differ in attitude and behaviour based on their opinion on the human vs. natural debate? •Have certain flood experiences led to certain risk reduction activities or adaptation/mitigation actions? Does a change in attitude come first? •What are the barriers and motivations to responding to risk? – part of normal practice?
- 24. References AHDB (2011) Greenhouse Gas Action Plan of the Agriculture Industry in England: Progress report and Phase II Delivery. Azjen, I. (1991) The theory of planned behaviour. Organisational Behaviour and Human Decision Processes. 50: 179-211 Botterill, L. and Mazur, N. (2004) Risk and Risk perception: A literature review. Available Capstick, S., Pidgeon, N. and Whitehead, M. (2013) Public perceptions of climate change in Wales: Summary findings of a survey of the Welsh public conducted during November and December 2012. Climate Change Consortium of Wales (C3W). Farming Futures (2011) Farming Futures: Climate Change Survey Stage Five Report. Farming Futures. Available from: http://www.farmingfutures.org.uk/sites/default/files/files/Farming%20Futures%20survey%20February%202011.pdf Harwood, J., Heifner, R., Coble, K., Perry, J. and Somwaru, A. (1998) Managing Risk in Farming: Concepts, Research, and Analysis. Market and Trade Economics Division and Resource Economics Division, Economic Research Service, Department of Agriculture. Available Monastersky, R. (2013) Global carbon dioxide levels near worrisome milestone. Nature. 497 Spence, A. and Pidgeon, N. F. (2010) Psychology, climate change and sustainable behaviour. Environment. 52: 9-18 Soloman, S., Rosenlof, K. H., Portmann, R. W., Daniel, J. S., Davis, S. M., Sanford, T. J. and Plattner, G. K. (2010) Contributions of stratospheric water vapor to decadal changes in the rate of global warming. Science. 327: 1219-1223 Tebaldi, C. and Lobell, D. B. (2008) Towards probabilistic projections of climate change impacts on global rop yields. Geophysical Research Letters. 35: 1-6 Whitmarsh, L. (2008) Are flood victims more concerned about climate change than other people? The role of direct experience in risk perception and behavioural response. Journal of Risk Research. 11(3)
Editor's Notes
- Today I want to discuss some of my initial findings which relates to objective 2 and 3 and also 5.
- Social science study that revolves around risk –a bit interdisciplinary in nature – examining both actual physical risk and perceived risk
- One particular source of a variety of current and future risks and impacts is that of climate change. This particular target as well as any agricultural policy’s ultimate success is reliant on us understanding farmer engagement and behaviour
- Which leads me on to the rationale for exploring farmers’ current engagement with climate change risk…
- Existing research currently points to a lack of farmer engagement with climate change in the UK – e.g annual surveys by Farming Futures More recently, Defra have undertaken their farm practices suvery - 16% of farm businesses were undertaking at least one practice linked to energy generation– solar panels most common practice – seemed to be influence by a number of characteristics such as Farmers under 40 yrs, from owner occupied poultry farms which are performing well financially – significantly more likely to carry out action. In terms of efforts to reduce emissions, over half of farmers were undertaking practices most commonly improving nutrient management, soil drainage and fuel efficiency. Generally uptake increased with economic performance of the farm. Adapting practices undertaken by 64% of farms mostly in form of water and soil management – mostly likely to be larger farms Some research suggests the predominant reason for lack of engagement is that climate change is a very distant issue – cannot readily observe tangible impacts…
- Which leads me on to the main focusof my study which is the role of experience….and in this case I’m looking at flooding.
- Past studies of adoption indicate that local extreme events, potentially linked to climate change could be used to promote concern and encourage action towards it. E.g work by Whitmarsh 2008, Capstick et al 2012 in Wales, and Spence and Pidgeon 2011
- Which has led me to identify the gap in the literature and research that I’m aiming to help fill and contribute to…
- Little to no research in the UK particularly at the local scale. Theories such as the Theory of Planned Behaviour and Social Practice theory – can these be applied, critiqued, built on in this setting?
- 3 main areas according to the geology – West of Gloucestershire you have the Forest of Dean with its geology creating a steep sided plateau lying between the Rivers Severn and Wye with various ridges and valleys, the Cotswolds landscape sits on limestones – so you have an open and gently rolling landscape, and then you have the wide low lying floodplain of the River Severn across the Severn Vale. The geology, soil topography across the county dominates river flow characteristics – The county is drained predominantly by the lower reaches of the R.Severn flowing through the county from NE to SW. The rivers draining the Forest of Dean drain into the River Wye or Severn. Rivers rising on the Cotswolds escarpment predominantly drain east to the River Thames. Drainage within the Vale is much slower and managed by network of modified channels. In the limestone cotswolds, water infiltrates into the ground and is released at slow rates into the Thames’ tributaries. Water levels in the River Thames rises slowly after rainfall however response of the smaller rivers that feed it varies. Different parts of county vulnerable to different types of flooding – fluvial, pluvial, even coastal – haven’t explored this level of detail in quant survey but may be of relevance with farmer interviews. Recent flood history in the UK – Gloucestershire one of worst hit counties particularly in 2007.
- Touching briefly on the relationship between flood risk and climate change – the relationship is very complex – cannot attribute one event or a series of events directly to “climate change” – future projections indicate more frequent extreme events
- The recent snapshot in time would fuel speculation of the influence of climate change – but the bigger picture would suggest it fits in with natural long term variability and fluctuations. In terms of the 2007 flood event Faulkner et al (2008) conducted a return analysis and concluding an estimated return period of 100 years or more; confirming the event as unusual.
- Current stage of my work – did attempt a cluster analysis which would group the farmers based on similar characteristics from responses – this would be used as a sampling frame to select a sub-sample for farmer interviews. This didn’t work very well – so back to thinking about how to select individual farmers
- Factors explored in the postal survey
- First, for example farmers who perceived the risk from market volatility as high also perceived the risk from drought as high, farmers who perceived the risk from pest and disease as high also rated the risk from reduction in yields as high. These types of statistically significant correlations emerged from the data. Secondly, there were a number of associations between extreme weather and climate change – farmers who rate the risk of climate change to their business as high, would also be likely to do so for risk from extreme weather. Furthermore, farmers who rate the risk from extreme weather as high were statistically more likely to rate climate change as a larger contributor to recent UK flooding.
- So under the theme of risk response – Finally, it was found that farmers who were responding to flood risk through a number of activities were sig more likely to report that they were undertaking certain adaptation or mitigative measures – in some cases this could be because the measure for reducing flood risk was similar to that of the adaptation measure – this will be explored further
- Finally there was an association found with risk experience, perception and response and farmer location. Perhaps not unsurprising given what we know about flood risk. Interestingly, there was no association between location and climate change risk engagement.
- Further questions raised from the statistical analysis – to be elaborated on and explored during interviews. Currently debating how to approach the interviews – aim of 20 face to face qualitative semi-structured interviews to explore these findings and discuss their experiences. Any feedback on this would be appreciated.