Presentation delivered by Silvia Silvestri during a seminar organized by the Livestock Systems and Environment Program at ILRI Nairobi on 20 November 2014

1. Climate change and smallholder households across multiple dimensions:
perception, adaptation and barriers to adoption
Silvia Silvestri, PhD
Senior Scientist
International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI)
Nairobi
20 November 2014

2. Perception
Barriers to
adoption
Adaptation

3. Climate change
• Weather vs climate
• Climate variability vs climate change
• Climate hazard:
- Climate shocks
- Climate stresses

4. Perception
• Behavior is shaped by perception
rather than climate patterns.
• Farmer’s ability to perceive climate
change is a prerequisite for their
choice to adapt.
• Emphasis is put on recent climatic
events in making decisions.
@CCAFS

5. Perception cont.
• Real climate trend vs perceived climate trend:
how accurate is farmers’ perception of climate
change?
• Results from Kenya analysis of HH data 2009-2010
• Farmers perceived increase in average
temperature (94%), decrease in average
precipitation (88%), and long-term change in
rainfall variability – temporal and spatial change
on rainfall (91%).
• Farmers reported increase in periods of droughts
or dry spell (51%) between rainy seasons in 20
years.
• What actual climate data from 1957 and 1996
from weather stations closed to the sites say? No
statistically significant trend.
• Although: increase in minimum temperature and
decline in rainfall happened during most recent
years.
Bryan et al., 2013.
Source: Oguto et al., 2007

6. Perception cont.
Silvestri et al., 2013
Determinants of farmers’ perceptions of climate changeA number of factors influences the
likelihood that farmers will perceive
climate change:
• Experience.
• Information (i.e. on livestock
production such as destocking,
new breeds, indigenous breeds,
livestock-crop integration,
livestock diseases).
• Food aid.
• Extension advice -> limited
number of visits? Difficult to
deliver information in an
uncertain environment?

7. Adaptation
Transition in types of adaptation
Degree of climate change
‘Complexity’ofresponding
Incremental
-
coping
Systemic
-
adaptation
Transformative
-
trasformation
Adapted from Hodwen et al. (2010), and Vermeulen et al. (2013)
Increasing costs, increasing barriers, decreasing tolerance to uncertainty

8. Adaptation
Transition in types of adaptation
Degree of climate change
‘Complexity’ofresponding
Incremental
-
coping
Systemic
-
adaptation
Transformative
-
trasformation
Supplemental feeding
(off farm purchase)
Use of more resistant
crop varieties
Water storage for
livestock
Planting dates
Etc
Animal breeding and
genetic improvement
Improved feed quality
Improve animal
husbandry and health
Agroforestry
Off-farm diversification
Ect
Shift in livestock systems
Large scale irrigation
New livelihoods
Migration
Etc
Adapted from Hodwen et al. (2010), and Vermeulen et al. (2013)
Increasing costs, increasing barriers, decreasing tolerance to uncertainty

9. Using climate science to determine when transitions will be required
Adaptation cont.
IPCC (2012)
• Where is it that the negative
impacts of climate change can be
expected?
• Identifying those areas that are
most likely negatively affected by
climate change is a precondition
for prioritizing adaptation.

10. Adaptation cont.
Heinke et al. in preparationChanges in means of distributions for SPEI - 2040

11. Adaptation cont.
Smallholders’ coping strategies to climate shocks
Silvestri et al. (2013)
• Main shocks were drought and
erratic rainfall.
• Main results of the climate shocks
was a decline in crop yield.
• Main coping strategies are
immediate responses to shocks and
require little investment to be
implemented.
Results from Kenya analysis of HH data 2009-2010

12. Adaptation cont.
63
101
140
24
72
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Numberoffarmers
Smallholders’ adaptation strategies
Key adaptation strategies for livestock
Silvestri et al. (2013)

13. Desired adaptations
(percentage of respondent)
The main desired adaptations require a more significant initial
investment by farmers
Adaptation cont.
Silvestri et al. (2013)
52.4
44.6
22.1
9.8 9.3 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.0 6.2
4.2
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
%
Silvestri et al. (2013)

14. Adaptation cont.
• Constraints to adaptations
Silvestri et al. (2013)

15. Adaptation cont.
• Does adaptation to climate change
provide food security?
• What adaptation practices food secure
farmers have in place?
• Results from Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania
analysis of HH data 2011-2012
(IMPACTlite survey*).
Adaptation
Food
security
Mitigation
*data.ilri.org/portal/dataset/

16. Adaptation cont.
Learning from HH that are doing better than other
• Years of experience.
• Greater diversity of crops.
• More land devoted to growing
vegetables, starches, pulses,
fruits and cereals.
Silvestri et al. submitted
• Site-specific characteristics and different
factors (i.e. type of production system;
AEZ; socio-economic conditions) are
important across different sites.
@CCAFS

17. Silvestri et al. submitted
Adaptation cont.
Learning from HH that are doing better than other
• Household income
increases with the
number of crops
cultivated.
• The more agricultural
and non-agricultural
activities the lower the
income?
• Does household welfare
depends more on the
activity mix than on the
total number of activities
per se?

18. Mitigation co-benefits also important
Bryan et al. (2013)
7 districts

19. Determinants of Adaptation
Barriers to adoption
• Farmers are in general risk adverse.
• Factors influencing adaptation vary
according with the adaptation
strategy chosen. Different strategies
are needed to support the adoption
of particular adaptation options.
• Climate information is important (for
helping farmers to decide when
destocking and move animals...).
• Diversified sources of income (mixed
crop livestock production and off
farm sources of income) and credit
support adaptation of some
measures.
@CCAFS

20. • Effectiveness of extension services.
• Social safety nets (food or other aid)
support the adoption of some practices
(destocking, changing crop variety,
changing livestock feeds).
• Greater distance to the markets
diminishes the probability of destocking
and changing feeds. The isolation also
limits access to information and exchange
with other farmers.
Barriers to adoption cont.
Determinants of Adaptation
@CCAFS

21. Behavioral barriers in response to climate change and their drivers
Barriers to adoption cont.
De Jalon et al. (2014)
• Questionnaire
statements were
associated with
each of the
different
behavioral
barrier to climate
change

22. Barriers to adoption cont.
De Jalon et al. (2014)

23. Barriers to adoption cont.
De Jalon et al. (2014)
What does influence probability of
displaying behavioral barriers?
• Farming experience
• Education
• Receiving climate information

24. Conclusions
• Households perceive long term
climate change, but the degree of
adaptation is somewhat limited.
• Many of the coping responses are
decisions that households are
typically reluctant to do (e.g.
reducing consumption, selling
livestock etc.).
• Short term coping strategies, such as
food aid, are necessary but need
more support for long-term
adaptation (e.g. livelihood
diversification).
@CCAFS

25. Conclusions
?

26. Conclusions
• Development/government agencies should focus more on
supporting long-term adaptation strategies through greater
investments in rural and agricultural development:
• Development and dissemination of technologies (and
early warning systems).
• Investment in infrastructures to improve market access.
• Improved quality and access to inputs.
• Expand access to extension and credit services.
• Education and training for livelihood diversification
within and outside agriculture.
• Expand access to weather insurance.
• Increasing food stockpiles to be used during poor
production years.
• Support for collective adaptation strategies and demand-
driven approaches are needed.

27. The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.
better lives through livestock
ilri.org
Silvia Silvestri
s.silvestri@cgiar.org