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IPCC Risk Framework_Ebi
- 1. Kristie L. Ebi,Ph.D., MPH Understanding and managing risks
- 2. Evolution of conceptualizationof vulnerability • IPCC AR4 – Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity
- 3. Ra Province Health Facility, Fiji Hurricane Winston 40%of population affected, with 131,000 people needed of immediate shelter; 88 of 214 health care facilities damaged National Referral Hospital, Honiara, Solomon Islands
- 4. Evolution of conceptualizationof vulnerability • IPCC AR4 – Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity • IPCC SREX – The propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected
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- 6. For exposed andvulnerable communities, even non-extreme weather and climate events can have extreme impacts Looking for a good example here. ▪ Africa’s largest recorded cholera outbreak ▪ over 90,000 affected ▪ over 4,000 killed ▪ began following onset of seasonal rains ▪ vulnerability and exposure increased risk Case Study: Zimbabwe 2008 IPCC 2012
- 8. Context matters • Multiplepolitical, social, economic, technological, and human factors determine whether adaptation strategies, policies, and measures are effective – Therefore, differences in culture, education, knowledge, availability and affordability of technology, and other factors means that a “one size fits all” approached is likely to fail • Public health challenges presented by climate change need to be addressed within the context of issues such as access to clean water and sanitation, inadequate nutrition, and diseases such as HIV/AIDS • Poverty a major factor
- 9. Event • Probability • Magnitude Exposure •Physical protections • Other Vulnerability • Susceptibility • Capacity Loss • Damage • Valuation IPCC 4th Assessment Report Risk = Probability x Consequence Responding to climate change involves an iterative risk management process that includes both adaptation and mitigation and takes into account climate change damages, co-benefits, sustainability, equity, and attitudes to risk
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- 11. Establish an iterativerisk management process IPCC 2012
- 13. Flexible risk managementapproach Yohe and Leichenko 2010 • At any point in time, risks associated with hazards depend markedly on interactions between components of risk • Can start with hazards or vulnerability • Be mindful of feedbacks: • Exposure over time (or lack thereof) can feed back into vulnerability • Implications for adaptive capacity, development, & resilience
- 15. SRES vs newscenario process • Demographic • Economic • Technological • Global vs. local focus
- 16. SSP 1 SSP2 SSP 3 SSP4 SSP5 Reference X X X X X RCPReplication 8.5 Wm-2 X 6.0 Wm-2 X X X X 4.5 Wm-2 X X X X X 2.6 Wm-2 X X X SPAs Scenario matrix architecture Van Vuuren et al. 2013
- 17. Shared socioeconomic pathways O’Neillet al. 2015 Fossil-fueled development Regional rivalry Middle of the road Sustainability Inequality Narrative Quantitative elements • Population • Urbanization • Rates of technological change • Income • Income distribution • Other
- 18. SSP elements Key determinantsof adaptation challenges: Determinant: Average wealth Poverty Quality of governance People in coastal zones Urbanization Education Innovation Quality of healthcare Storyline IAM elements IAV elements SSP variable: GDP projection Income distribution Governance Spatial population projection Urbanization Education Innovation Health projections Schweizer & O’Neill 2014
- 19. SSP1: World isshifting gradually but dramatically toward a more sustainable path, emphasizing more inclusive development that respects perceived environmental
- 20. SSP2: World experiencesmoderate progress towards a multitude of goals and interests. Global and national institutions make slow progress towards achieving sustainable development goals.
- 21. SSP3: Growing interestin regional identity & concerns about competitiveness & security push countries to increasingly focus on domestic and regional issues. Global institutions are relatively weak, with uneven coordination and cooperation for addressing environmental concerns
- 22. 1960 1980 20002020 2040 2060 2080 2100 trillion$2005 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 million 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 A) Population 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 %ofglobalurbanpopulation 0 20 40 60 80 100 B) Urbanization C) GDP D) GDP per capita & Gini SSP projections SSP5 SSP4 SSP3 SSP2 SSP1 SSP marker SSP range (GDP) Other major studies Historical development UN urbanization trend to 2050 IPCC SRES scenario range AR5 WGIII scenarios Interquartile range 100% (full) range Grubler et al. range 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1000$2005(GDP/cap) 0.7 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 GINI (SSP markers) SSP markers compared to other literature studies SSP markers and non- marker ranges Giniindex Riahi et al. in review
- 23. Drivers of heat-relatedmortality and how they could change Drivers SSP2 SSP1 SSP3 Population Medium Low Age-structure Larger proportion elderly Smaller proportion elderly Chronic disease prevalence Higher; better care Higher; poor care Urbanization Medium High Low Access to indoor cooling Medium High Low Urban planning Trends continue Well managed Poorly managed Early warning system Medium High Low Societal participation Medium High Low Equity Medium High Medium Astrom et al. 2017
- 24. Tokyo’s socioeconomic pathways Kameiet al. 2016
- 25. Evaluating and promotingresilience Considering social progress alongside social stressors is essential for rapidly developing societies IPCC 2012
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