Slide pack to accompany the second climate change risk assessment stakeholder workshop held by the Adaptation Sub-Committee of the Committee on Climate Change on 17 September 2015.

1. 1
UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017
Second stakeholder workshop
London School of Economics
17 September 2015

2. 2
Welcome and agenda
Daniel Johns
Head of Adaptation, ASC Secretariat

3. 3
Aims of this workshop
To provide information to stakeholders on how the
CCRA Evidence Report is progressing
To present emerging findings and gather feedback

4. 4
Workshop agenda
10:05 – 10:15 Introduction to the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment
- Lord Krebs, chair of the Adaptation Sub-Committee (ASC)
10:15 – 10:35 The Climate Change Risk Assessment Evidence Report
- Kathryn Humphrey, CCRA programme lead, ASC secretariat
10:40 – 11:25 Breakout 1: Chapter-specific discussions
11:25 – 11:45 Coffee break
11:45 – 12:30 Breakout 2: Chapter-specific discussions
12:30 – 12:50 CCRA Research projects - Daniel Johns, head of ASC secretariat
12:50 – 13:00 Wrap up and next steps - Lord Krebs, chair of ASC

5. 5
Introduction to the
UK Climate Change Risk Assessment
Lord John Krebs
Chair, Adaptation Sub-Committee

6. 6
The Adaptation Sub-Committee (ASC)
Statutory roles:
• To provide advice to
Government on the Climate
Change Risk Assessment
(advisory role)
• To report to Parliament on
progress towards adaptation in
England (scrutiny role)
Prof Lord John
Krebs (chair)
Prof Dame
Anne Johnson
Sir Graham
Wynne
Prof Sam
Fankhauser
Prof Martin
Parry
Prof Jim Hall

7. 7
The ASC’s role in the UK adaptation policy cycle

8. 8
The Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017
The Climate Change Risk Assessment is a statutory requirement of the
Climate Change Act, to be published every 5 years.
First CCRA published in 2012.
For this cycle of the CCRA, the Government has asked the Adaptation Sub-
Committee to prepare an independent evidence report, to be published by
July 2016.
The report will set out the latest understanding of key risks and
opportunities for the UK from climate change.

9. 9
The Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017
‘EXAM’ QUESTION FOR THE CCRA EVIDENCE REPORT :
“Based on our latest understanding of current, and future,
climate risks/opportunities, vulnerability and adaptation,
what should the priorities be for the next National
Adaptation Programme and adaptation programmes of the
devolved administrations?’

10. 10
CCC Adaptation Sub-Committee and secretariat
9 independent lead contributors
• Rachel Warren, University of East Anglia
• Iain Brown, James Hutton Institute
• Richard Dawson, Newcastle University
• Sari Kovats, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
• Dan Osborn, University College London
• Swenja Surminski, London School of Economics
• Neil Adger, Exeter University
• Andy Challinor, Leeds University
• Roger Street, UKCIP
60 contributing authors
Who is working on the CCRA 2017 evidence report?

11. 11
New studies: four NERC-funded research projects
Project A: Flood risk
projections for all four
UK nations
Project B: Updated
projections of water
availability for the UK
Project C: Climate
change impacts on the
UK’s natural assets
Project D: Development
of high-end scenarios for
a number of climate
impacts

12. 12
The CCRA Evidence Report
Kathryn Humphrey
CCRA programme lead, ASC secretariat

13. 13
Reminder – differences between 2012 and 2017 CCRAs
CCRA2012 CCRA2017
11 sector reports + 1 synthesis + 3
national summaries
1 evidence report + 4 national
summaries + 4 research projects
Authored by consultants (signed off by
Defra)
Authored by independent academics,
consultants and ASC, signed off by ASC
Focussed on magnitude and
confidence
Focussed on urgency
Mix of existing data and new analysis Mostly synthesis of existing analysis
Did not include effects of planned
adaptation or socio-economic change
(beyond population growth)
Will include an assessment of the
effects of adaptation and socio-
economic change on risk.
Did not quantify international effects Will include a chapter on international
effects.
Cost - £3 million Cost - £1 million
CCRA2012 available here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-climate-change-risk-assessment-government-report

14. 14
CCRAEvidenceReport
1.Introduction
2.Approach
3. Natural
environment
4.Infrastructure
5.People & built
environment
6.Business
7.International
dimensions
8.Cross-cutting
issues
Evidence Report structure
Executive
Summary
England
summary
Scotland
summary
Wales summary
Northern Ireland
summary

15. 15
1.Assess current vulnerability
to climate, adaptation
2.Assess future risks and
adaptation
3.Summarise priorities for
2018-2022
• Current climate
• Current socio-economics
• Scale of current adaptation,
capacity
• Future climate
• Future socio-economic change
• Effects of planned/autonomous
adaptation
• Summarise the most urgent
priorities
• …including priorities for action,
research, capacity building or
‘watching brief’
CCRA method – three steps for each chapter

16. 16
Outputs – Urgency scores
Urgency = the degree to which it is felt that action is needed to reduce a risk or realise an
opportunity from climate change.

17. 17
Urgency categories
1.Act Now: new or stronger Government policies or implementation activity are
needed in the next five years to reduce long-term vulnerability to climate change.
2.Research Priority: new research is needed in the next five years to fill significant
evidence gaps or reduce the uncertainty in the current level of understanding.
3.Capacity Building: further action is needed in the next five years to improve the
adaptive capacity of people and organisations so that appropriate long-term
decisions can be made that account for climate change.
4.Watching Brief: current policies or levels of activity (which may be little) are
appropriate on the basis of the current evidence, given uncertainty in long-term
projections, the potential for autonomous adaptation, or relatively short lead times
should further action be needed at some stage. The evidence in these areas should
be kept under review, with long-term monitoring of risk levels and adaptation
activity.

18. 18
Milestones
• Winter 2013 – CCRA method developed
• March – May 2014 – Call for evidence
• June 2014 – Lead contributors selected
• July 2014 – Research projects started
• September 2014 – Contributing authors and peer reviewers selected
• Autumn 2014 – First stakeholder meeting
• Spring 2015 – Policy workshops and DA workshops
• Spring 2015 – Chapter drafting begins
• September 2015 – CCRA research projects published
• October 2015 – Draft report sent out for first round of review
• December 2015- Draft report sent to Defra
• January – March 2016- Final drafting amends
• April 2016- Final draft report sent out for second round of review
• July 2016- CCRA evidence report published
• January 2017- CCRA Government report published

19. 19
Breakouts
Daniel Johns
Head of Adaptation, ASC Secretariat

20. 20
Chapter-specific breakouts
10:40 – 11:25 Breakout 1
Chapter 3: Natural environment – Main room (here)
Chapter 4: Infrastructure - Weston studio (6th floor - follow me)
Chapter 7: International dimensions – Three Tuns (1st floor - follow Manuela)
11:25 – 11:45 Coffee break – Main room (here)
11:45 – 12:30 Breakout 2
Chapter 5: People and the built environment - Main room (here)
Chapter 6: Business - Three Tuns (1st floor)

21. 21
CCRA research projects
Daniel Johns
Head of Adaptation, ASC Secretariat

22. 22
New studies: four NERC-funded research projects
Project A: Flood risk
projections for all four
UK nations
Project B: Updated
projections of water
availability for the UK
Project C: Climate
change impacts on the
UK’s natural assets
Project D: Development
of high-end scenarios for
a number of climate
impacts

23. 23
Project A: Purpose and Objectives
Construct an emulator of the UK flood risk system (FFE – Future Flood
Explorer) to produce projections of future flood risk.
 All sources - rivers, sea, surface water and groundwater
 2020s, 2050s, 2080s
 4 UK countries- England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales
 Under a 2oC and 4oC rise in mean global temperatures, as well as a
H++ scenario
 Includes for zero, low and high growth population scenarios
 Applies range of adaptation scenarios based on combination of
actions to reduce (a) probability of flooding (defences, coastal
realignment, SuDS), (b) exposure (spatial planning, insurance) and
(c) vulnerability (warning systems, property level protection)
2014-2015 CCRA 2017: Project B Water Resources Page 23
Project A: Future
flood risk

24. 24
Results: Changes in EAD assuming continuation
of current levels of adaptation and
no population growth
Project A: Future
flood risk
Expected annual
damages (£ million)
from river, coastal
and surface water
flooding.
2080s projection
assumes:
- current levels of
adaptation
continue
- no population
growth/new
development

25. 25
Results: effect of different adaptation scenarios
• Both Expected Annual Damages (EAD) and the number of properties
at high risk are expected to increase significantly under all climate
change and population growth scenarios
• All sources of flooding are expected to increase, but river flooding is
projected to remain the most significant cause of flood damages
• Continuation of current levels of adaptation in the future will not be
sufficient to completely offset all of the projected increase in risk
• Enhancing current levels of adaptation could potentially manage the
increased risk under a 2oC rise in global temperatures, but will not be
enough to manage the risk under 4oC
• Rising sea levels could result in significant lengths of critical coastal
defences becoming vulnerable to failure – a further 0.5m sea level
rise is expected to make 20% of coastal defences highly vulnerable
Project A: Future
flood risk

26. 26
Project B: Purpose and Objectives
Produce water supply-demand projections for the UK:
 To 2100
 Range of emissions scenarios
 Consistency with Government projections and water company
plans
 4 UK countries- England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales
 Include different socio-economic futures (population)
 Include effects of adaptation
 Assess impacts of droughts
2014-2015 CCRA 2017: Project B Water Resources Page 26
Project B:
Future flood
risk
Project B: Water
availability
projections

27. 27
Metrics
Public water supply:
• Supply demand balance (per
capita litres/day), for:
• Water resource zones
• 2030s, 50s, 80s
• H/M/L climate
• H/M/L population
• For different degrees of
adaptation.
All sectors (abstraction):
• Available resource and demand
(Ml/day, %) for:
• WFD bodies, summarised
into larger catchments
• 2050 and 2080
• H/M/L climate
• H/M/L population
• Different degrees of
adaptation.
Project B: Water
availability
projections

28. 28
Results: Current supply-demand balance, public
water supply
• Some WRZs report modest deficits for
the present day (in yellow)
• Overall the UK has a surplus of around
2,000 Ml/d in addition to an
‘uncertainty’ headroom buffer of about
1,000 Ml/d.
• Those WRZs in deficit can use their
buffer headroom to make up the
shortfall.
• Overall, current public water supply
provision is considered to be adequate.
Project B: Water
availability
projections

29. 29
Results: Future supply-demand balance,
public water supply
• High population and high climate and
no additional action adaptation
scenario
2050. Widespread pattern of deficits.
In particular south-east of England
and the large conjunctive use zones in
the north of England (in red/orange).
All countries in deficit to some extent
except Scotland, but localised deficit
in Edinburgh and Lothian (in light
orange).
2080. More acute deficit, especially
England. All countries in deficit.
Supply-demand balance for 2050s under high
population, high climate change projections
and a no additional action adaptation
scenario.
Project B: Water
availability
projections

30. 30
• Availability.
Negligible difference between baseline and
lower bound projections of natural flows.
Large reduction in natural available
resource under the upper bound
projections in 2050 and 2080 (red areas
shows where demand outstrips supply).
• EFI approach.
The approach to environmental flow
indicators has a very large influence on
whether there is any natural available
resource for human uses, particularly in the
west of the UK. Upland catchments tend to
be most affected.
Results: Future supply-demand balance, all
sectors
Abstraction demand in the 2080s as a
percentage of the available resource at the
average of Q95 and Q70 low flows and fixed EFIs
Project B: Water
availability
projections

31. 31
Project C: Analysis
Clean water
• Literature review to provide evidence of how climate change may
exacerbate several drivers of poor water quality: nutrients, combined
sewer overspills, dissolved organic carbon, and over-abstraction.
Natural carbon stores
• GIS analysis of soil and vegetation carbon storage overlaid with NEA
land use and climate change scenarios; outputs in terms of changes
in carbon stocks on a 1km grid.
Wildlife
• Modelling of projected changes in UK-wide species distribution
based on data for 4,000 species, providing maps of gains/losses of
species at 10km square resolution.
Project C:
Impacts on
natural assets

32. 32
Results: wildlife, local extinction probability
Areas likely to see local extinctions for low, medium and high climate scenarios
across all taxonomic groups. Blue = low probability, red = high probability
Project C:
Impacts on
natural assets

33. 33
Results summary
Project C:
Impacts on
natural assets
Clean water
• Climate change could exacerbate existing (natural and anthropogenic)
drivers of nutrient enrichment with changes in the seasonality of
precipitation a critical factor.
• Concentrations of Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC) have risen with increases
attributable to less acid rain but also land management and extreme
weather events. This can affect water colouration, with implications for
drinking water treatment costs.
Natural carbon stores
• ‘World markets’ (urban development, intensive agriculture) and high climate
change would lead to significant losses in soil carbon by end of the century
• Significant gains in carbon are possible under alternative land use scenarios
involving high levels of tree planting and soil conservation
Wildlife
• Uplands and northern areas of UK have highest risk of species extinctions
• Mosses are most vulnerable out of those considered – important for clean
water, carbon storage etc. Least able to adapt to changes in climate space.

34. 34
Project D: Purpose and objectives
An experimental project to derive high++ scenarios for variables
other than sea level rise and storm surge:
• Cold snaps
• Heat waves
• Low rainfall
• Low river flows
• High rainfall
• High river flows
• Wind storms
Project D: H++
scenarios

35. 35
Explaining High++ Project D: H++
scenarios
What H++ is What H++ is not
A range of values in the tail of the
uncertainty distribution
A projection of the likely future outcome
A range suitable for sensitivity testing and
investigation of no-regrets options
A single value
A process for combining information from
different sources (not from just a single
model framework)
The maximum value possible or worst case
scenario
(Typically, although H++ is known to be in
the tail of the uncertainty distribution ,it is
usually not possible to specify a precise
probability for components of H++)
A tool to encourage planners and
practitioners to think about their risk
appetite and where crossing a specific
threshold has a large impact

36. 36
Methodology: Generating H++ scenarios
Expert judgement / synthesis
Project D: H++
scenarios
Historical
Observations
Climate model
outputs such as
UKCP09, other model
ensembles or Global
Models
Scaled transient
climate response
(TCR) Scenarios
Evidence from climate
research centres such
as the Met Office
Limiting physical
arguments
Paleological evidence
or analogues
Industry records Spatial analogues
Evidence base

37. 37
Results summary Project D: H++
scenarios
Hazard Scenario & direction of change
Cold snaps
H++ 
UKCP09 Low Emissions 
Heat waves
H++ 
UKCP09 High Emissions 
Low rainfall
H++ 
CMIP5 range 
Low river flows
H++ 
CCRA1/UKCP09 High Emissions 
High rainfall
H++ 
UKCP09 High Emissions 
High river flows
H++ 
UKCP09 
Wind storms
H++ 
CMIP5 

38. 38
Next steps
Daniel Johns
Head of Adaptation, ASC Secretariat

39. 39
Call for comments
Call for organisations wishing to provide comments on CCRA draft
chapters
Application guidelines: https://www.theccc.org.uk/tackling-climate-
change/preparing-for-climate-change/climate-change-risk-
assessment-2017/
Application letters to be sent via email to ccra@theccc.gsi.gov.uk by
close on Wednesday 30th September 2015
Drafts and a list of review questions will be provided by the 15th of
October, with comments needed by the 8th November

40. 40
Next steps
• September 2015 CCRA research projects published
• October 2015 Draft report sent out for first round of review
• December 2015 Draft report sent to Defra
• January – March 2016 Final drafting amends.
• April 2016 Final draft report sent out for second round of review.
• July 2016 CCRA evidence report published.
• January 2017 CCRA Government report published.

41. 41
Concluding remarks
Lord John Krebs
Chair, Adaptation Sub-Committee

42. 42
Thank you and contacts
ASC secretariat:
Daniel Johns, Head of adaptation, lead on executive summary
daniel.johns@theccc.gsi.gov.uk
Kathryn Humphrey, Lead on CCRA development, research projects on water and high++, ch. 2 and 5
kathryn.humphrey@theccc.gsi.gov.uk
Manuela Di Mauro, Lead on CCRA programme and stakeholder management, chapters 7 and 8
manuela.dimauro@theccc.gsi.gov.uk
David Thompson, Lead on research projects on flooding and natural environment, chapter 3 and 4
david.thompson@theccc.gsi.gov.uk
David Style, Lead economist, chapter 6
david.style@theccc.gsi.gov.uk
Rachel Buckle, Lead on evaluation of Scottish Adaptation Programme and CCRA Scotland summary
rachel.buckle@theccc.gsi.gov.uk
Email: ccra@theccc.gsi.gov.uk
Web: https://www.theccc.org.uk/tackling-climate-change/preparing-for-climate-
change/climate-change-risk-assessment-2017/