This document summarizes a risk planning workshop for infrastructure projects. The agenda includes discussing risk responses, planning mitigation actions, contingency and management reserve, and opportunity enhancement. Network Rail operates, maintains, and improves the UK railway infrastructure, including track, bridges, tunnels, level crossings, signal boxes, and stations. The PRAM risk management process involves identifying risks, analyzing them, and responding to risks through various strategies like reducing, avoiding, transferring, or accepting risks. The workshop discusses implementing risk response plans, setting aside appropriate contingency funds based on risk analysis, and identifying opportunities for more efficient project delivery.

1. Infrastructure Projects
Risk Planning Workshop
Mark Warner - Network Rail
1

2. Agenda
• Introduction
• Risk Responses
• Planning Mitigation Actions
• Contingency and Management Reserve
• Opportunity Enhancement
2

3. What we do ?
• We operate, maintain and improve every aspect of the railway infrastructure, including:
– all the signalling and electrical control equipment needed to operate the track
– 40,000 bridges, tunnels and viaducts
– 6,650 level crossings
– over 1,100 signal boxes
– 2,500 stations mainly leased to train operators, although we do operate a number of national stations –
Glasgow Central and Edinburgh Waverley
and last but by no means least…
– 20,000 miles of track, which is enough to take you from London to Washington DC down to Rio de
Janeiro, on to Johannesburg, east to Bombay and back to London!
3

4. PRAM Risk Management Process
4

5. What does the Guide say about responding to risk?
• The control of risk requires the implementation of
appropriate actions or measures:
– Project specific actions should be carried out locally
within the project
– Actions that have a wider applicability should be
incorporated into procedures that apply to the whole
business and become business as normal
5

6. 6

7. How do we respond to threats?
7

8. When should we act…….?
If the combination of the probability and impact is above that level which the project/client is
willing to accept
Beyond Tolerance
LIKELIHOOD Impact 1 Impact 2 Impact 3 Impact 4 Impact 5
Description
Frequency (annual Score RISK SCORES
probability)
5 per year
or more
Recurring 5 6 7 8 9 10
1 per year
to
Expected
less than 4 5 6 7 8 9
5 per year
Less than
1 per year Possible
to ≥20%
3 4 5 6 7 8
1 in 5 years
Less than
1 in 5 years Unlikely
to <20%
2 3 4 5 6 7
1 in 25 years
Less than Remote
1 in 25 years <4%
1 2 3 4 5 6
8

9. Implement those plans
• Reduce – Lessen the probability and/or the impact
• Avoid – Change your delivery plan
• Transfer – Pass the impact on elsewhere
• Accept – Formulate fallback plans
9

10. Within your project
• Risk Management Plans
• Risk Review Meetings
• Which activities should be reviewed?
• What will the impact be on the critical path/project
milestones/objectives?
• Do we need additional/different resources?
• What would be the impact on contractual and/or legal
obligations?
• Do the changes give rise to any opportunities?
10

11. How do we know how much to set aside?
• Monte Carlo analysis can be used to forecast a realistic
outcome distribution for our risks which can be used to
(amongst other things):
– Estimate the contingencies that the project requires to
have a given level of achieving success
11

12. How what do we set aside?
12

13. Cost of Mitigation
Does it come out of contingency or the cost plan?
13

14. 14

15. Within your project
• Risk Management Plans
• Opportunity Review Meetings
• Which activities could be more efficiently delivered?
• Will there be a positive impact be on the critical path/project
milestones/objectives?
• Do we need additional/different resources?
• What would be the impact on contractual and/or legal
obligations?
• Do the changes give rise to any threats?
15

16. Ownership of responses
• Allocation to appropriately empowered person
• Specific Measurable Achievable Relevant Timely
• When do we have to do it?
• When does it have to be completed by?
• How do we manage progress?
• Do we need to replan?
• How do we know if it has been successful?
16

17. To summarise
• Threat Responses – what is the most efficient strategy?
• Planning Mitigation Actions – what will their impact be?
• Contingency and Management Reserve – how much do we
need?
• Opportunities – most effective way of maximising their
benefit
17

18. ,
18