Projecting for the Future: Harmonising Energy and Environment Tuesday 30 April 2024 APM North West Network Conference, Synergies Across Sectors Presented by: Graham Winch, Professor of Project Management, Alliance Manchester Business School Conference overview: https://www.apm.org.uk/community/apm-north-west-branch-conference/ Content description: APM launched Projecting the Future in June 2019 to debate the challenges and opportunities for the profession, building on the 2017 Future of Project Management exercise conducted by Arup and University College London. This presentation provides the initial results from this third phase of reflection on the future of our profession. The main conference objective was to promote the Project Management profession with interaction between project practitioners, APM Corporate members, current project management students, academia and all who have an interest in projects.

1. PROJECTING THE FUTURE:
HARMONISING ENERGY AND
ENVIRONMENT
Graham M Winch
with Eunice Maytorena-Sanchez and Sara Hajikazemi

2. 2 Alliance Manchester Business School
PROJECTING THE FUTURE:
HARMONISING ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT
> APM thought leadership on the future of our profession
> Where have we been?
> Where are we now?
> Where might we be going?
> First a note on what we do at AMBS
NB please note that this is work in progress, not a final position

3. 3 Alliance Manchester Business School
A NOTE ON WHAT WE DO AT AMBS
> Usual undergraduate, MSc and MBA
modules
> Main effort in project leadership
residential executive programmes
> Principal clients include
• BP, BAE Systems, Atomic Weapons
Establishment, National Trust
> New 4-day open executive programme
• Leading Major Projects
• Next delivery December 2024

4. 4 Alliance Manchester Business School
APM THOUGHT LEADERSHIP ON THE FUTURE OF
OUR PROFESSION
 The Future of Project Management,
2017
• Led by Arup and University College London
 Projecting the Future, 2020
• Chaired by Tim Banfield
• https://www.apm.org.uk/resources/research/pr
ojecting-the-future/
 Projecting the Future: Harmonising
Energy and Environment, 2024
• Led by Alliance Manchester Business
School with University of West of Scotland

5. WHERE HAVE WE BEEN?

6. 6 Alliance Manchester Business School
WHERE HAVE WE BEEN?
> Projecting and projectors
> The Four Industrial Revolutions
> Projecting through four industrial revolutions

7. 7 Alliance Manchester Business School
PROJECTING AND PROJECTORS
> “about the Year 1680 began the Art and Mystery of Projecting to creep into the
World”
• Daniel Defoe, An Essay Upon Projects, 1697: 25
> Late 17th century England was the age of projectors
• Infrastructure entrepreneurs (e.g. Stour Navigation)
• Seekers of royal patents to protect areas of trade and manufacture
• Projectors were the entrepreneurs at the heart of early modern capitalism
• Projects had previously been for Church or Crown, not for private gain
> Ethics always lay at the heart of projecting:
• “the Honest Projector is he, who having by fair and plain principles of Sense, Honesty, and
Ingenuity, brought any Contrivance to a suitable Perfection, makes out what he pretends to, picks
nobody’s pocket, puts his Project in Execution, and contents himself with the real Produce as the
profit of his Invention” (ibid: 35)

8. 8 Alliance Manchester Business School
THE FOUR INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTIONS
the anthropocene
Source: 4IRs courtesy of the World Economic Forum

9. 9 Alliance Manchester Business School
THE FIRST INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION: 1770 ON
> Energy source
• Water, then steam from coal
• The start of the anthropocene
> New types of projects
• Railways
> Iconic project
• The Liverpool and Manchester Railway (1830)
> Key development in projecting
• The contractor
• A second age of the projector – Stephensons, Brassey, Brunel, de Lesseps

10. 10 Alliance Manchester Business School
THE SECOND INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION: 1860 ON
> Energy source
• Electricity from coal
• Oil and the internal combustion engine
> New types of projects
• Electricity generation and distribution systems
• Making cities healthier: water and sewage; urban reconstruction; urban transit
• The networked house: water; sewage; gas; electricity – later telephones
• First globalization: ports and steamships
> Iconic project
• Suez Canal (1869)
> Developments in projecting
• The professionalization of projects – civil engineers and architects
• The end of the second age of projectors in the UK

11. 11 Alliance Manchester Business School
THE THIRD INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION:1950 ON
> Energy source
• Electricity from nuclear and then natural gas
• The great acceleration in the anthropocene
> New types of projects
• Grade-separated limited access highways
• Airports
• Pharmaceuticals
• IT systems; UNIVAC 1, 1954
• Media production
• The military industrial complex
> Iconic project
• The Apollo Program (1969)
> Developments in projecting
• The professionalization of project management following the example of engineering
• PERT as “the first management tool of the computer and nuclear age” (Polaris program)

12. 12 Alliance Manchester Business School
THE FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION: 2005 ON
> Energy sources
• Renewables – solar and (offshore) wind
• Revival of nuclear – small modular reactors
> New types of projects
• Digital transformation projects
• Electricity transmission and distribution reconfiguration
• Decommissioning the achievements of the first and second industrial revolutions!
> Iconic project
• Operation Warp Speed (2020)
> Developments in projecting
• Agile
• The mission level of projecting

13. 13 Alliance Manchester Business School
PROJECTING THROUGH FOUR INDUSTRIAL
REVOLUTIONS
1IR (~1770 on)
Mechanization
2IR (~1860 on)
Mass
production
3IR (~1950 on)
Automation
4IR (~2005 on)
Digitalization
Mechanical production
using steam power
1800 1900 2000
Automated production using
electronics and computers
Giza
Pyramids
project
Great
Wall
project
Brooklyn
Bridge
project
Manhattan
project
Liverpool &
Manchester
Railway project
Apollo
project
Operation
Warp Speed
programme
Development of
commercial strategies
Rise of professional
engineers and increase of
specialization
Formalization of project
management principles
Projecting for
sustainability and digital
transformation
Tesla
Gigafactory
project
INDUSTRIAL
REVOLUTIONS
Mass production using electrical
power and assembly lines
Organizing based on
craft and experience
Cyber physical systems, artificial
intelligence, and more to come
Suez
Canal
project
Dungeness
B project
Bridgewater
Canal
project
Hoover Dam
project
Animal, wind and water
power
Steam power from coal
Electrical power from
coal and oil; internal
combustion engine
Electrical power from
nuclear, hydro and gas
Electrical power from
renewables:
wind and solar
Anthropocene
Holocene
Source: developed from Winch et al, 2023, Figure IV.1

14. WHERE ARE WE NOW?

15. 15 Alliance Manchester Business School
THE GOLDEN THREAD 2024 (PWC)
> 2.32m people working as project practitioners (whether formally qualified or not)
• 8.5% of total UK employment
• 8% increase over 2019 baseline
> £186.6bn GVA in “project management sector”
• 19% increase
• 9.2% of total UK GVA
> “Classic” project-based sectors remain dominant
• Construction
• Business and professional services (includes construction consultants)
• IT/technology
> Rising numbers in non project-based sectors
• Financial services
• Hospitality and leisure
• Transport, energy and utilities

16. 16 Alliance Manchester Business School
FOCUS GROUPS ATTACHED TO APM EVENTS
EVENT DATE in 2023
Net zero nation and sustainability, Edinburgh September 7th
Women in Project Management, London September 18th
Governance SIG, London October 10th
Project Professionals ready for the future? Bristol October 18th
Fellows Forum, London October 31st

17. 17 Alliance Manchester Business School
Institutional
• Holistic/systemic vs
partial/myopic thinking
• Long term vs short term
thinking and policies
• Clarity, coherence and
commitment vs Ambiguity
and flippancy
• Ensure it is high on the
political agenda vs low on
the political agenda
Sectoral
• Recognise interconnectivity
of issues
• Focus on outcomes, benefits
and value vs cost, time focus
• Focus on societal impact vs
profit focused
• Provide guidance and
understanding of metrics and
measurement
• Determine new funding
models
Practical
• Develop training for skills
development
• Collaborate across the
sector
• Flexible/adaptable
commercial environment
• Define novel project
processes for transition
OPPORTUNITIES VS CHALLENGES FOR
ACHIEVING NET ZERO FOR PROJECT
PRACTITIONERS

18. 18 Alliance Manchester Business School
DISTINCTIVE CONTRIBUTION OF PROFESSION
Strategic (emphasis)
• Board room education
• Better informed directors and sponsors
• PMs involved in strategic conversations and
decisions
• Engage stakeholders
• Project future vision
• Business ethics
• Evidence based decision making
Operational (emphasis)
• Systems thinking
• Benefits management
• Risk management
• Change management
• Portfolio management
• Outcomes and benefits
• Innovation
• Becoming ‘responsible’ PMs

19. 19 Alliance Manchester Business School
PM SKILL SET REQUIRED
Change
management
Benefits
management
Business
Change
Carbon
footprint
management
Data literacy
Leadership
Sustainable
PM and net
zero
Stakeholder
engagement

20. WHERE MIGHT WE BE
GOING?

21. 21 Alliance Manchester Business School
WHERE MIGHT WE BE GOING?
> Project Management 4.0
• AI and digital twins
• All projects become cyber-physical systems
> Addressing the grand challenges, especially net zero
• Massive increase in capital investment
> The lessons of the COVID 19 pandemic response
• Portfolio strategy for vaccine development
> Issues for our profession
• What’s our distinctive membership offer?
• Equity, diversity and inclusion
• From PPP to mission management

22. 22 Alliance Manchester Business School
WHERE MIGHT WE BE GOING?
Source: developed from Winch et al (2023) Figure IV.2

23. 23 Alliance Manchester Business School
KEY ELEMENTS
OF PM 4.0
> Artificial intelligence
> Relies heavily on machine learning
through statistical analysis of very
large data sets
> Generative AI the latest incarnation
> PM application to the “data plume”
from project controls systems
> Model-based definition (BIM in
construction)
> Computer-based graphics systems
modelling components in 3D
> Extensive applications on projects
thanks to use for design tasks
> Distinctive PM application in 4D
scheduling
> Provides the technological
foundation for digital twins

24. 24 Alliance Manchester Business School
ADDRESSING THE GRAND CHALLENGES
> >40% increase in annual UK economic infrastructure investment by 2030s
• Second National Infrastructure Assessment
• Micro-projects for housing retrofit to megaprojects for urban transportation
• Assuming no increase in PM productivity, implies > 40% increase in PM headcount over 10 years
• Excludes investment in social infrastructure such as schools and hospitals
> This is a global phenomenon
• >60% increase in annual capital investment for net zero by 2050 alone (more required in
developing countries)
• Excludes water and other SDGs
> Where are all the PMs going to come from?

25. 25 Alliance Manchester Business School
LEARNING FROM THE COVID 19 PANDEMIC
> Many lessons to be learned
• “agile” Nightingale hospital building, but hardly used
• NHS performed impressively to reconfigure hospitals and roll out vaccines
> Perhaps most important lesson is in portfolio and commercial management
• Vaccine Task Force (UK)
• Operation Warp Speed (US)
> Both took a portfolio approach
• Project owners (i.e. national healthcare systems) financed suppliers (i.e. vaccine providers)
knowing some would fail to deliver a usable vaccine
• Success was defined at portfolio level, not project level
• Project owners removed risk from suppliers by pre-purchasing vaccines: “blank cheque”
• Retained full stage-gate governance, but funded next stage before vaccine project passed gate
• Massively reduced suppliers’ risks knowing they would be financed even if the vaccine failed
which enabled significant schedule compression

26. 26 Alliance Manchester Business School
PORTFOLIO APPROACH TO VACCINE
DEVELOPMENT PROJECT GOVERNANCE
Source: Winch et al, 2022, Figure 9.7

27. 27 Alliance Manchester Business School
ISSUES FOR OUR PROFESSION
WHAT’S OUR DISTINCTIVE MEMBERSHIP OFFER?
> Golden Thread identified 2.32m project practitioners, but (inadvertently) identifies
low levels of occupational closure in project management
• Membership of APM + PMI UK only a small fraction of 2.32m
• Many other professions also claim PM as part of their scope
• In this context how can APM make a distinctive claim?
> Project teams typically consist of multiple professional pillars; these pillars therefore
need integrating
• Project management as the convening profession?
• Just as projects integrate across organizational functions, can project managers convene across
professional pillars?
• As organizations raise investment to address grand challenges do we need more Chief Project
Officers?
• If so, what is our distinctive development offer to those aspiring to such positions?
• Is a shift from project management to project leadership required?

28. 28 Alliance Manchester Business School
EQUALITY, DIVERSITY AND INCLUSION
> EDI is essential for projecting the future:
• Equity: Addressing social and economic inequalities as we transition to our future
• Diversity: Ensuring diversity of thought, ideas and experience as we project the future
• Inclusion: Creating opportunities for marginalized communities within our future and fostering a
sense of owning that future
> Organizations should consider EDI when projecting the future:
• Engage Communities: Involve local communities in projecting their future
• Fair Transition: Ensuring vulnerable groups are not disproportionately affected by the transition
> Education and Awareness: Promote awareness of our aspirations for the future
across diverse populations.
> High performing teams display psychological safety
• EDI the foundation of psychological safety

29. 29 Alliance Manchester Business School
EDI FOR PROJECTING THE FUTURE
Projecting
the
Future
Equity
Inclusion
Diversity
Demographic
Experiential
Cognitive
Removing barriers
Providing appropriate support
Addressing historical injustices
Equal access to opportunities
Equal access to resources
Valuing and accepting differences

30. 30 Alliance Manchester Business School
FROM PPPS TO MISSIONS
> We remain focused on projects, programmes and portfolios
• Projects as temporary organizations to achieve valued outcomes
• Programmes a sequences of projects that share dependencies and resources to achieve valued
outcomes
• Portfolios as sequences of projects that share resources (human, financial) but not dependencies
to achieve valued outcomes for a single organization
> But addressing grand challenges requires another level of analysis
• PPPs need to be shaped into missions shaped and delivered by diverse actors to project the
future to which we aspire
• How are such missions to be strategized and governed; is this government’s job alone?
> Who are the projectors of the 4th industrial revolution?
• Elon Musk (Tesla) made EVs aspirational
• Chuanfu Wang (BYD) is making them affordable
• Who else will project the innovations we need to project our desired future?

31. THANK YOU

32. QUESTIONS