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The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011 Web 2.0 for foresight 1 Karel Haegeman,  1 Cristiano Cagnin,  2 Totti Könnölä,  3 Georgi Dimitrov and  4 Doug Collins European Commission ( 1 JRC-IPTS,  3 DG EAC),  2 Impetu Solutions,  4 Spigit inc. Experiences on an Innovation Platform in European Agenda Setting
Web 2.0 for Foresight organiser: Security and Defence Agenda Global brainstorm How to respond to 21st century security challenges? 4,000 participants 124 countries 5 days 10 recommendations 2 examples of web 2.0 foresight in agenda setting creating a new generation of public servants  2017: 150th anniversary of Canada 150 early-career public servants How can Public Service meet the challenges in 2017? one year participants were taught new skills for each new phase  mutual learning about holistic views on challenges
Web 2.0 for Foresight ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Schillewaert et al (2009)   Two types of social networking platforms:  Primary research platform and Secondary research platforms Da Costa et al (2008) Online social networks from the perspective of the Foresight Diamond (Popper, 2008): creativity, expertise, evidence and interaction.  Gheorghiou et al (2009) Framework for a Delphi 2.0 platform for future oriented communities State of play Rahti and Given (2010)   Framework for quantitative and qualitative research in web 2.0 environments Cooke and Buckley (2008)   Trends facilitating the development of new approaches in market research
Web 2.0 for Foresight Figure 1: Connected research (Schillewaert et al, 2009). ,[object Object],[object Object],From traditional to connected research
Web 2.0 for Foresight A framework for primary web 2.0 foresight platforms based on the For-Learn Foresight Cycle Figure 2: Web 2.0 foresight cycle  (based on the For-Learn foresight cycle) Development of each step of the cycle Applied to a practical foresight experience for EIT (performed by JRC-IPTS with support of DG EAC)
Web 2.0 for Foresight The case study: EIT-IPTS foresight platform ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Web 2.0 for Foresight The case study: EIT-IPTS foresight platform Project roadmap
Web 2.0 for Foresight Step 1: Rationales for using a web 2.0 foresight approach ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Reasons for NOT using a web 2.0 approach to foresight 1 -  unwillingness to give   control   to participants -  aversion to accept and   handle critique   or provide concrete solutions -  the belief that it will   solve all   the problems -  lack of   resources and skills -  lack of fit   between tools and research objectives -  if the sole purpose is to be   fashionable -  resistance towards   unknown and fuzzy outcomes   at the outset 1 Schillewaert et al, 2009 The framework
Web 2.0 for Foresight ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Step 1: Rationales for using a web 2.0 foresight approach The case
Web 2.0 for Foresight Step 2: conditions to analyse Need for support and ownership  from policy-makers, not only in running the foresight exercise, but also  in using a collaborative methodological approach  and its consequences. Possible consequences: -  may involve a   greater degree of loss of control   -  a  certain degree of flexibility to adapt   the plan, and a good framework tolerating this  -  the  form the outcomes   will take may   not   be so   clear   from the outset -  expectations  about stakeholder involvement in other steps of the process The framework The case Possible consequences  only partially discussed  at the outset.   Control  played an  important role  in scoping the exercise (see step 3), but full impact not clear from the outset. Good flexibility  to adapt the process,  but no framework  (thus discussions on changes were time consuming) Form of the outcomes  was  not very clear  from the outset.
Web 2.0 for Foresight Step 3: scoping a web 2.0 foresight exercise ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The framework The case ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Web 2.0 for Foresight Attributes for the design of web 2.0 foresight exercises Step 3: scoping a web 2.0 foresight exercise The framework Attribute 1: Degree of representation: What ? Balance  between user groups, sectoral balance, or other profile elements (age, geographic location, expertise) When ? Depends on the objectives  How ?  -  During   recruitment : use channels with  a high degree of  control  (e.g. databases, focused user groups on social networking sites). -  During   implementation :  use of  moderation  and  techniques for enhancement of activity -  During   analysis : analyse  results  according to profile  variables ,[object Object],[object Object]
Web 2.0 for Foresight Step 3: scoping a web 2.0 foresight exercise The framework Attribute 2:  Degree of steering of platform activity: What ? Indirect steering of platform content Why ?  - increasing the activity on the platform  - improving existing proposals or issues  - steer the content towards the objectives or expected outcomes - increase representation of different stakeholder groups - increase creativity How ?  -  Moderation   on the platform: asking questions, adding comments, flagging topics, move topics to a next stage -  Targeted   messaging   to platform members based on their individual behaviour: ´Send your idea/topic to people you know and invite them to comment/rate it´ -  Tools   for drawing attention to highlights: rankings, flagging, tagging, summaries of discussions by platform ´journalists´. ,[object Object],[object Object]
Web 2.0 for Foresight Step 3: scoping a web 2.0 foresight exercise Attribute 3: Degree of openness of the platform:   -  Completely   closed :  Accessible for a predefined set of participants (FTA preconference platform) -  Completely   open :  Accessibility for any member of the relevant stakeholder groups (E.g. security Jam) -  Mixed   approaches combining personal invitations e.g. with a snowball or with targeted advertising. Attribute 4: Degree of freedom to engage   Related to the degree of steering, although not contradictory to it How ? -  platform members can  add new topics  for discussion -  they are  engaged in shaping the next stage(s), in the analysis, in the dissemination  -  summarised  information on  members´  behaviour is available  The framework The case Openness: ´fairly closed´ ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Web 2.0 for Foresight Step 4: web 2.0 methods and tools The framework The case
Web 2.0 for Foresight Step 5: running a web 2.0 foresight exercise Pilot before launch :  - add some  first contributions -  approaching  leading names - collect  oral and written  feedback  on content, functionalities, user-friendliness Issues of design : -  Registration :  members´ profile, compulsory and not compulsory fields, which fields will be displayed? -  Differentiation   between roles: visitor, member, expert, moderator, administrator  -  Customisation   of information displayed to participants, depending on their profile and interests: ´follow´ discussions, ideas, or other members; alternative ways to display  content (e.g. latest discussions, topics by  theme, most viewed, best rated, most discussed).  -  Simple design   -  Duration of the platform :  days or years? The framework The case Pilot before launch:  - 4 initial ideas  uploaded by JRC-IPTS, pre-invitation to 35 researchers and 26 Commission   staff, 2 additional ideas added during the pilot -  oral and written  feedback  - many improvements needed  on functionalities and clarity of understanding -  some  more changes  introduced  after the launch ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Functionalities that did work:   - posting ideas  (around 100 posts) - commenting ideas
Web 2.0 for Foresight Posts per day   Sign-ups per day    Views per day Communication plan:  relates to all the steps of the cycle Privacy and ethics: -  use of a  privacy statement  and  rules.  - Anonymity:  are anonymous postings desirable?  - Suicide  functionality - IPR  (Participants as co-authors of final products? - What data will be public (beyond the platform)?) Step 5: running a web 2.0 foresight exercise The framework The case High fluctuation of  platform  activity  based on communication activity
Web 2.0 for Foresight Step 5: running a web 2.0 exercise The framework The case ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Instead  critical success factors  were identified to connect data in proposing new priority areas A first attempt in grouping data:  by category
Web 2.0 for Foresight Dissemination of results: -  Part of  communication plan  (see 2.5) - Use of the platform  to disseminate results to the wider network of the platform members -  Take into account  ownership and authorship  issues Evaluation of web 2.0 foresight exercises:  -  See  For-Learn eight-step framework  for conducting an evaluation process Lifetime of the platform: - What  will happen with the platform  after the end  of the project? -  How to deal with  stakeholders´ loss of information  about their contributions and their new contacts? -  Use of the platform in a  more permanent  way: for follow-up stages of the project, during implementation of actions, or as an ongoing discussion platform (e.g. Atlantic Community) Step 6: follow-up The framework The case To be determined
Web 2.0 for Foresight Conclusions 2. Key design issues clarity about process and outcome objectives a systematic approach to tool selection pilot before the launch a clear view on data sense-making certain degree of autonomy in the management of the foresight process. simple platform design communication 3. Barriers to increased application resistance to increased transparency and loss of control  cultural issues 1. High potential for advancing transparency and the foresight toolbox 2006 IBM Innovation Jam:  150.000   participants in two times three days lack of understanding

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WEB 2.0 FOR FORESIGHT: EXPERIENCES ON AN INNOVATION PLATFORM IN EUROPEAN AGENDA SETTING

  • 1. The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011 Web 2.0 for foresight 1 Karel Haegeman, 1 Cristiano Cagnin, 2 Totti Könnölä, 3 Georgi Dimitrov and 4 Doug Collins European Commission ( 1 JRC-IPTS, 3 DG EAC), 2 Impetu Solutions, 4 Spigit inc. Experiences on an Innovation Platform in European Agenda Setting
  • 2. Web 2.0 for Foresight organiser: Security and Defence Agenda Global brainstorm How to respond to 21st century security challenges? 4,000 participants 124 countries 5 days 10 recommendations 2 examples of web 2.0 foresight in agenda setting creating a new generation of public servants 2017: 150th anniversary of Canada 150 early-career public servants How can Public Service meet the challenges in 2017? one year participants were taught new skills for each new phase mutual learning about holistic views on challenges
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5. Web 2.0 for Foresight A framework for primary web 2.0 foresight platforms based on the For-Learn Foresight Cycle Figure 2: Web 2.0 foresight cycle (based on the For-Learn foresight cycle) Development of each step of the cycle Applied to a practical foresight experience for EIT (performed by JRC-IPTS with support of DG EAC)
  • 6.
  • 7. Web 2.0 for Foresight The case study: EIT-IPTS foresight platform Project roadmap
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10. Web 2.0 for Foresight Step 2: conditions to analyse Need for support and ownership from policy-makers, not only in running the foresight exercise, but also in using a collaborative methodological approach and its consequences. Possible consequences: - may involve a greater degree of loss of control - a certain degree of flexibility to adapt the plan, and a good framework tolerating this - the form the outcomes will take may not be so clear from the outset - expectations about stakeholder involvement in other steps of the process The framework The case Possible consequences only partially discussed at the outset. Control played an important role in scoping the exercise (see step 3), but full impact not clear from the outset. Good flexibility to adapt the process, but no framework (thus discussions on changes were time consuming) Form of the outcomes was not very clear from the outset.
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15. Web 2.0 for Foresight Step 4: web 2.0 methods and tools The framework The case
  • 16.
  • 17. Web 2.0 for Foresight Posts per day Sign-ups per day Views per day Communication plan: relates to all the steps of the cycle Privacy and ethics: - use of a privacy statement and rules. - Anonymity: are anonymous postings desirable? - Suicide functionality - IPR (Participants as co-authors of final products? - What data will be public (beyond the platform)?) Step 5: running a web 2.0 foresight exercise The framework The case High fluctuation of platform activity based on communication activity
  • 18.
  • 19. Web 2.0 for Foresight Dissemination of results: - Part of communication plan (see 2.5) - Use of the platform to disseminate results to the wider network of the platform members - Take into account ownership and authorship issues Evaluation of web 2.0 foresight exercises: - See For-Learn eight-step framework for conducting an evaluation process Lifetime of the platform: - What will happen with the platform after the end of the project? - How to deal with stakeholders´ loss of information about their contributions and their new contacts? - Use of the platform in a more permanent way: for follow-up stages of the project, during implementation of actions, or as an ongoing discussion platform (e.g. Atlantic Community) Step 6: follow-up The framework The case To be determined
  • 20. Web 2.0 for Foresight Conclusions 2. Key design issues clarity about process and outcome objectives a systematic approach to tool selection pilot before the launch a clear view on data sense-making certain degree of autonomy in the management of the foresight process. simple platform design communication 3. Barriers to increased application resistance to increased transparency and loss of control cultural issues 1. High potential for advancing transparency and the foresight toolbox 2006 IBM Innovation Jam: 150.000 participants in two times three days lack of understanding