1- Horizon Scanning approaches and links to EEA's FLIS (Forward Looking Information and Services) and Global Megatrends
2 - Long-term Future of the Portuguese Economy - a Scenario Building Process
A brief introduction to Jisc's horizon scanning activity, and our recent work to map out the future of cloud computing for UK further and higher education and skills.
Funded by the Finnish government (Tekes), the Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation is a free how-to guide for learning innovation best practices and inculcating them in an organization. It is packed with over 250 pages of step-by-step instructions, diagrams, tips, examples, worksheets, case studies, and more.
Authors: Tamara Carleton, William Cockayne, Antti Tahvanainen
Sample excerpt. Download a free full copy from www.innovationacademy.io
Horizon Scan: ICT and the future of financial servicesEricsson
A new research report from Ericsson and Imperial College London provides a broad horizon scan of the impacts of ICT on services for money, banking, insurance and risk.
A brief introduction to Jisc's horizon scanning activity, and our recent work to map out the future of cloud computing for UK further and higher education and skills.
Funded by the Finnish government (Tekes), the Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation is a free how-to guide for learning innovation best practices and inculcating them in an organization. It is packed with over 250 pages of step-by-step instructions, diagrams, tips, examples, worksheets, case studies, and more.
Authors: Tamara Carleton, William Cockayne, Antti Tahvanainen
Sample excerpt. Download a free full copy from www.innovationacademy.io
Horizon Scan: ICT and the future of financial servicesEricsson
A new research report from Ericsson and Imperial College London provides a broad horizon scan of the impacts of ICT on services for money, banking, insurance and risk.
To better prepare policy and decision makers in today’s complex and inter-dependent environments, FTA methods can play a significant role in enabling early warning signal detection and pro-active policy action. This paper analyses the use of different horizon scanning approaches and methods as applied in the SESTI project. A comparative analysis is provided as well as a brief evaluation of meeting the needs of policy-makers in identify areas of intervention by policy formulation. The paper suggests that the selection of the best scanning approaches and methods is subject to contextual and content issues. At the same time, there are certain issues characterising horizon scanning processes, methods and results that should be kept in mind by both practitioners and policy-makers.
Unleashing innovation and entrepreneurship in Europe: People, places and poli...Totti Könnölä
Dr. Totti Könnölä (CEO of Insight Foresight Institute) gave an invited lecture on ‘Unleashing innovation and entrepreneurship in Europe: People, places and policies’ (building on the preliminary findings from the CEPS Taskforce) in the Enterprise and Innovation Community (EIC) meeting of the League of European Research Universities (LERU) at the Universiteit Leiden on 8, 2016.
WEB 2.0 FOR FORESIGHT: EXPERIENCES ON AN INNOVATION PLATFORM IN EUROPEAN AGEN...Totti Könnölä
While the private sector has already discovered the wide set of benefits of web 2.0 technologies (McKinsey, 2009), the public sector is only beginning to use these tools. Especially the use of interactive and collaborative tools in FTA for priority setting has been rather limited until today. Examples in both a public and private sector environment suggest great potential for web 2.0 foresight in public organisations and policy-making, both in terms of advancing foresight methodologies and in terms of increasing transparency. This paper develops a framework for designing a web 2.0 foresight exercise, building on the For-Learn Foresight Cycle, experiences from other disciplines such as market research with web 2.0 research, and hands-on project experience from JRC-IPTS. It applies the framework to the design and implementation of a foresight case of the European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT), where a web 2.0 ideation platform was used to collect ideas from research and development communities across the globe for world leading innovation that integrate education, business and research with a specific thematic focus. It is concluded that key elements in the design are clarity about process and outcome objectives, a systematic approach to tool selection, the organisation of a pilot before the launch, a clear view on sense-making from the data collected, and a certain degree of autonomy in the management of the foresight process.
Chaos Theory: How Real-Time Data is Making Analytics and Product Design Obsol...Oxford Tech + UX
Beverly May, Executive Director of the UX Awards, presented the Chaos Theory: How Real-Time Data is Making Analytics and Product Design Obsolete during the DAA New York Symposium on May 7, 2015.
Today’s digital services deliver chaos. They are rendered in real-time and completely customized for each user. Every person has a unique Facebook profile, feed, list of friends and configuration of their privacy settings, apps and plugins. Every user has a flights search result based on browser and cookie settings, search destinations, date and time of day, preferred airlines and their geographic location, that determines exactly what offers they do (and don’t) see and how they change over time. Every person performing a Google search will see different results based on device, browser, profile, location, demographics and even their credit history.
Not only is the data and content that each user sees almost completely unpredictable; so is the design. Google’s Material Design, true responsive design and the card-based approach to modern UX means each person’s interface and experience also cannot be controlled. Enter into the equation the coming wave of natural user interfaces through gesture, eye tracking, brain sensing, and text-to speech, as well as the rise of machine learning and AI, and the level of data and product design complexity becomes infinite.
This engineered chaos not only cannot be properly measured, it also cannot be designed. Systems cannot be “designed” or measured, because the exact customer experience of any one user simply cannot be predicted. Rather, design and analytics have become the creation of holistic rules and preferences in the hopes of controlling and then documenting the chaos some of the time.
The result? What we have now is true Chaos Theory in digital services in which when a butterfly flaps its wings in Brazil, it can indeed cause a tornado in Texas. In short, many digital services are becoming cyborgs: living, organic, and highly complex digital ecosystems. We have only just begun to glimpse meaning of the impossibility of data analytics and design, let alone the impact on our human-digital future that is unfolding.
Ever wondered why some organisations have the ability to re-invent entire industries, time and time again?
Where does this source of continuous innovation and foresight come from?
Ever considered that these organisations have two separate innovation cycles in motion?
Good organisations are able to innovate and improve what they know. What the great organisations are able to achieve is the continuous ability to regenerate its own core strategies, based on what they don’t yet know, re-inventing entire industries along the way.
Presentation made at the 4th Workshop on Strategic Crisis Management (Paris, 28-29 May 2015). For more information, visit the meeting webpage: http://www.oecd.org/gov/risk/4th-workshop-strategic-crisis-management.htm.
Farmers manage large areas of landscapes that are altogether designed by heterogeneous actors. Conflicts may eventually arise in complex regions like the Mediterranean where the urban and agricultural actors’ spaces for action easily overlap and concur for the use and management of soil and water. A territorial or landscape perspective is therefore required to inform the design of land management systems capable to meet the place-based development goals. A greater involvement of agronomy in the landscape arena would help to design landscape management policies that are better informed of farming systems. Our aim is to present a territorial approach that supported a prospective analysis for the design of shared land management actions using the territory game.
- - -
Oral communication presented at the 14th conference of the European Society for Agronomy, Edinburgh 5-9 September 2016: "Growing landscapes: cultivating innovative agricultural systems"
Cecily’s fun and inspiring programs take groups on a guided tour of the future where they find fresh answers to the age-old questions, “Who are you?” “Where are you going?” and “What’s your territory?” Whether an industry forecast, innovation challenge, leadership development, or for future-proofing a brand, Cecily is able to penetrate core issues and get to the best questions quickly. Her provocative and engaging programs offer a practical approach to connecting near-term realities with long-term objectives.
All programs are tailored to the interests and objectives of each group.
A presentation by R. Suresh, Director, Public Affairs Centre, on community centered governance in the Gulf of Mannar, Tamil Nadu. The presentation was made at a colloquium on Citizen Voices in Environmental Governance on August 23, 2012 organised by the Public Affairs Centre in Bangalore, India.
GENDER MAINSTREAMING: STRATEGY AND ACTION PLAN, 2014-2017, presented to the WOMEN AND ENVIRONMENT FORUM, 4 March 2014, at the World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF)
To better prepare policy and decision makers in today’s complex and inter-dependent environments, FTA methods can play a significant role in enabling early warning signal detection and pro-active policy action. This paper analyses the use of different horizon scanning approaches and methods as applied in the SESTI project. A comparative analysis is provided as well as a brief evaluation of meeting the needs of policy-makers in identify areas of intervention by policy formulation. The paper suggests that the selection of the best scanning approaches and methods is subject to contextual and content issues. At the same time, there are certain issues characterising horizon scanning processes, methods and results that should be kept in mind by both practitioners and policy-makers.
Unleashing innovation and entrepreneurship in Europe: People, places and poli...Totti Könnölä
Dr. Totti Könnölä (CEO of Insight Foresight Institute) gave an invited lecture on ‘Unleashing innovation and entrepreneurship in Europe: People, places and policies’ (building on the preliminary findings from the CEPS Taskforce) in the Enterprise and Innovation Community (EIC) meeting of the League of European Research Universities (LERU) at the Universiteit Leiden on 8, 2016.
WEB 2.0 FOR FORESIGHT: EXPERIENCES ON AN INNOVATION PLATFORM IN EUROPEAN AGEN...Totti Könnölä
While the private sector has already discovered the wide set of benefits of web 2.0 technologies (McKinsey, 2009), the public sector is only beginning to use these tools. Especially the use of interactive and collaborative tools in FTA for priority setting has been rather limited until today. Examples in both a public and private sector environment suggest great potential for web 2.0 foresight in public organisations and policy-making, both in terms of advancing foresight methodologies and in terms of increasing transparency. This paper develops a framework for designing a web 2.0 foresight exercise, building on the For-Learn Foresight Cycle, experiences from other disciplines such as market research with web 2.0 research, and hands-on project experience from JRC-IPTS. It applies the framework to the design and implementation of a foresight case of the European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT), where a web 2.0 ideation platform was used to collect ideas from research and development communities across the globe for world leading innovation that integrate education, business and research with a specific thematic focus. It is concluded that key elements in the design are clarity about process and outcome objectives, a systematic approach to tool selection, the organisation of a pilot before the launch, a clear view on sense-making from the data collected, and a certain degree of autonomy in the management of the foresight process.
Chaos Theory: How Real-Time Data is Making Analytics and Product Design Obsol...Oxford Tech + UX
Beverly May, Executive Director of the UX Awards, presented the Chaos Theory: How Real-Time Data is Making Analytics and Product Design Obsolete during the DAA New York Symposium on May 7, 2015.
Today’s digital services deliver chaos. They are rendered in real-time and completely customized for each user. Every person has a unique Facebook profile, feed, list of friends and configuration of their privacy settings, apps and plugins. Every user has a flights search result based on browser and cookie settings, search destinations, date and time of day, preferred airlines and their geographic location, that determines exactly what offers they do (and don’t) see and how they change over time. Every person performing a Google search will see different results based on device, browser, profile, location, demographics and even their credit history.
Not only is the data and content that each user sees almost completely unpredictable; so is the design. Google’s Material Design, true responsive design and the card-based approach to modern UX means each person’s interface and experience also cannot be controlled. Enter into the equation the coming wave of natural user interfaces through gesture, eye tracking, brain sensing, and text-to speech, as well as the rise of machine learning and AI, and the level of data and product design complexity becomes infinite.
This engineered chaos not only cannot be properly measured, it also cannot be designed. Systems cannot be “designed” or measured, because the exact customer experience of any one user simply cannot be predicted. Rather, design and analytics have become the creation of holistic rules and preferences in the hopes of controlling and then documenting the chaos some of the time.
The result? What we have now is true Chaos Theory in digital services in which when a butterfly flaps its wings in Brazil, it can indeed cause a tornado in Texas. In short, many digital services are becoming cyborgs: living, organic, and highly complex digital ecosystems. We have only just begun to glimpse meaning of the impossibility of data analytics and design, let alone the impact on our human-digital future that is unfolding.
Ever wondered why some organisations have the ability to re-invent entire industries, time and time again?
Where does this source of continuous innovation and foresight come from?
Ever considered that these organisations have two separate innovation cycles in motion?
Good organisations are able to innovate and improve what they know. What the great organisations are able to achieve is the continuous ability to regenerate its own core strategies, based on what they don’t yet know, re-inventing entire industries along the way.
Presentation made at the 4th Workshop on Strategic Crisis Management (Paris, 28-29 May 2015). For more information, visit the meeting webpage: http://www.oecd.org/gov/risk/4th-workshop-strategic-crisis-management.htm.
Farmers manage large areas of landscapes that are altogether designed by heterogeneous actors. Conflicts may eventually arise in complex regions like the Mediterranean where the urban and agricultural actors’ spaces for action easily overlap and concur for the use and management of soil and water. A territorial or landscape perspective is therefore required to inform the design of land management systems capable to meet the place-based development goals. A greater involvement of agronomy in the landscape arena would help to design landscape management policies that are better informed of farming systems. Our aim is to present a territorial approach that supported a prospective analysis for the design of shared land management actions using the territory game.
- - -
Oral communication presented at the 14th conference of the European Society for Agronomy, Edinburgh 5-9 September 2016: "Growing landscapes: cultivating innovative agricultural systems"
Cecily’s fun and inspiring programs take groups on a guided tour of the future where they find fresh answers to the age-old questions, “Who are you?” “Where are you going?” and “What’s your territory?” Whether an industry forecast, innovation challenge, leadership development, or for future-proofing a brand, Cecily is able to penetrate core issues and get to the best questions quickly. Her provocative and engaging programs offer a practical approach to connecting near-term realities with long-term objectives.
All programs are tailored to the interests and objectives of each group.
A presentation by R. Suresh, Director, Public Affairs Centre, on community centered governance in the Gulf of Mannar, Tamil Nadu. The presentation was made at a colloquium on Citizen Voices in Environmental Governance on August 23, 2012 organised by the Public Affairs Centre in Bangalore, India.
GENDER MAINSTREAMING: STRATEGY AND ACTION PLAN, 2014-2017, presented to the WOMEN AND ENVIRONMENT FORUM, 4 March 2014, at the World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF)
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland
Environmental Accounting and Sustainable Development: A Study of Niger Delta ...inventionjournals
This work was borne out of the expectation of the gap that exists between the companies operating in Niger Delta and their host communities; years of neglect, environmental degradation, pollution and massive outcry for redress which resulted to arm struggle with attendant consequences. The objective of this study is to determine how environmental accounting has influenced the sustainable development in Nigeria, particularly Niger Delta area. Two (2) hypotheses were formulated and tested as an off shoot of the research questions. Environmental Accounting as Independent variable was measured by Sustainable development variables such as infrastructural amenities, poverty eradication, health care delivery, natural disaster and pollution. Quasi experimental research design was employed in the research. Data were gathered using questionnaires which were distributed to garner opinion from accountants, auditors, environmentalist, and community leaders in six states in Niger Delta area. Of 400 questionnaires distributed 388 were retrieved out of which 8 were invalid. Chi-square, Spearman’s coefficient correlation among others under SPSS Version 23 package was used to analyze the data and test the hypotheses. The result showed that there is relationship between Environmental accounting, Sustainable development and Economic Stability in Nigeria. We conclude that Environmental accounting is imperative for sustainable development and therefore suggests that all companies operating in Niger Delta area should imbibe environmental accounting as part of their operational standard.
Environmental Accounting and Sustainable Development: A Study of Niger Delta ...inventionjournals
This work was borne out of the expectation of the gap that exists between the companies operating in Niger Delta and their host communities; years of neglect, environmental degradation, pollution and massive outcry for redress which resulted to arm struggle with attendant consequences. The objective of this study is to determine how environmental accounting has influenced the sustainable development in Nigeria, particularly Niger Delta area. Two (2) hypotheses were formulated and tested as an off shoot of the research questions. Environmental Accounting as Independent variable was measured by Sustainable development variables such as infrastructural amenities, poverty eradication, health care delivery, natural disaster and pollution. Quasi experimental research design was employed in the research. Data were gathered using questionnaires which were distributed to garner opinion from accountants, auditors, environmentalist, and community leaders in six states in Niger Delta area. Of 400 questionnaires distributed 388 were retrieved out of which 8 were invalid. Chi-square, Spearman’s coefficient correlation among others under SPSS Version 23 package was used to analyze the data and test the hypotheses. The result showed that there is relationship between Environmental accounting, Sustainable development and Economic Stability in Nigeria. We conclude that Environmental accounting is imperative for sustainable development and therefore suggests that all companies operating in Niger Delta area should imbibe environmental accounting as part of their operational standard.
A Sahelian Lands Development Strategy; A Front for the Adaptation and Resilie...NAP Events
Presented by: Marcelin Sanou
7.4 Regional approaches to adaptation planning
The session will consider adaptation planning and implementation at the transboundary level, for such areas as water management, hydroenergy production and supply, trade and ecosystem management, as well as technical assessment and data issues that can be addressed jointly among neighbouring countries. It will feature best practices from the Great Green Wall of the Sahara and the Sahel as well as examples on addressing water issues in shared river basins.
Prepared by WWF, BCG and CORDIO East Africa, this is a presentation of the full report available at http://wwf.panda.org/wwf_news/?290410/Western-Indian-Ocean-valued-at-US3338-billion-but-at-a-crossroads and http://cordioea.net/western-indian-ocean-ocean-economy-report/
The Gambia provides a comprehensive view of hazard, risk and uncertainties for floods and droughts in a changing climate, with projections for the period 2050-2100. The risk profile considers a large number of possible scenarios, their likelihood, and associated impacts. The presentation describes, how the DRR & CCA is mainstreamed in the Gambia with development planning and policies.
The Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change Highlighting CGIAR Innovation. Presentation given by Torben Timmermann at the CGIAR Heads of Communications Meeting, Rome, 20 March 2012.
http://ccafs.cgiar.org/commission
DevOps and Testing slides at DASA ConnectKari Kakkonen
My and Rik Marselis slides at 30.5.2024 DASA Connect conference. We discuss about what is testing, then what is agile testing and finally what is Testing in DevOps. Finally we had lovely workshop with the participants trying to find out different ways to think about quality and testing in different parts of the DevOps infinity loop.
The Art of the Pitch: WordPress Relationships and SalesLaura Byrne
Clients don’t know what they don’t know. What web solutions are right for them? How does WordPress come into the picture? How do you make sure you understand scope and timeline? What do you do if sometime changes?
All these questions and more will be explored as we talk about matching clients’ needs with what your agency offers without pulling teeth or pulling your hair out. Practical tips, and strategies for successful relationship building that leads to closing the deal.
Pushing the limits of ePRTC: 100ns holdover for 100 daysAdtran
At WSTS 2024, Alon Stern explored the topic of parametric holdover and explained how recent research findings can be implemented in real-world PNT networks to achieve 100 nanoseconds of accuracy for up to 100 days.
Climate Impact of Software Testing at Nordic Testing DaysKari Kakkonen
My slides at Nordic Testing Days 6.6.2024
Climate impact / sustainability of software testing discussed on the talk. ICT and testing must carry their part of global responsibility to help with the climat warming. We can minimize the carbon footprint but we can also have a carbon handprint, a positive impact on the climate. Quality characteristics can be added with sustainability, and then measured continuously. Test environments can be used less, and in smaller scale and on demand. Test techniques can be used in optimizing or minimizing number of tests. Test automation can be used to speed up testing.
GraphRAG is All You need? LLM & Knowledge GraphGuy Korland
Guy Korland, CEO and Co-founder of FalkorDB, will review two articles on the integration of language models with knowledge graphs.
1. Unifying Large Language Models and Knowledge Graphs: A Roadmap.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.08302
2. Microsoft Research's GraphRAG paper and a review paper on various uses of knowledge graphs:
https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/graphrag-unlocking-llm-discovery-on-narrative-private-data/
A tale of scale & speed: How the US Navy is enabling software delivery from l...sonjaschweigert1
Rapid and secure feature delivery is a goal across every application team and every branch of the DoD. The Navy’s DevSecOps platform, Party Barge, has achieved:
- Reduction in onboarding time from 5 weeks to 1 day
- Improved developer experience and productivity through actionable findings and reduction of false positives
- Maintenance of superior security standards and inherent policy enforcement with Authorization to Operate (ATO)
Development teams can ship efficiently and ensure applications are cyber ready for Navy Authorizing Officials (AOs). In this webinar, Sigma Defense and Anchore will give attendees a look behind the scenes and demo secure pipeline automation and security artifacts that speed up application ATO and time to production.
We will cover:
- How to remove silos in DevSecOps
- How to build efficient development pipeline roles and component templates
- How to deliver security artifacts that matter for ATO’s (SBOMs, vulnerability reports, and policy evidence)
- How to streamline operations with automated policy checks on container images
SAP Sapphire 2024 - ASUG301 building better apps with SAP Fiori.pdfPeter Spielvogel
Building better applications for business users with SAP Fiori.
• What is SAP Fiori and why it matters to you
• How a better user experience drives measurable business benefits
• How to get started with SAP Fiori today
• How SAP Fiori elements accelerates application development
• How SAP Build Code includes SAP Fiori tools and other generative artificial intelligence capabilities
• How SAP Fiori paves the way for using AI in SAP apps
zkStudyClub - Reef: Fast Succinct Non-Interactive Zero-Knowledge Regex ProofsAlex Pruden
This paper presents Reef, a system for generating publicly verifiable succinct non-interactive zero-knowledge proofs that a committed document matches or does not match a regular expression. We describe applications such as proving the strength of passwords, the provenance of email despite redactions, the validity of oblivious DNS queries, and the existence of mutations in DNA. Reef supports the Perl Compatible Regular Expression syntax, including wildcards, alternation, ranges, capture groups, Kleene star, negations, and lookarounds. Reef introduces a new type of automata, Skipping Alternating Finite Automata (SAFA), that skips irrelevant parts of a document when producing proofs without undermining soundness, and instantiates SAFA with a lookup argument. Our experimental evaluation confirms that Reef can generate proofs for documents with 32M characters; the proofs are small and cheap to verify (under a second).
Paper: https://eprint.iacr.org/2023/1886
Dev Dives: Train smarter, not harder – active learning and UiPath LLMs for do...UiPathCommunity
💥 Speed, accuracy, and scaling – discover the superpowers of GenAI in action with UiPath Document Understanding and Communications Mining™:
See how to accelerate model training and optimize model performance with active learning
Learn about the latest enhancements to out-of-the-box document processing – with little to no training required
Get an exclusive demo of the new family of UiPath LLMs – GenAI models specialized for processing different types of documents and messages
This is a hands-on session specifically designed for automation developers and AI enthusiasts seeking to enhance their knowledge in leveraging the latest intelligent document processing capabilities offered by UiPath.
Speakers:
👨🏫 Andras Palfi, Senior Product Manager, UiPath
👩🏫 Lenka Dulovicova, Product Program Manager, UiPath
Removing Uninteresting Bytes in Software FuzzingAftab Hussain
Imagine a world where software fuzzing, the process of mutating bytes in test seeds to uncover hidden and erroneous program behaviors, becomes faster and more effective. A lot depends on the initial seeds, which can significantly dictate the trajectory of a fuzzing campaign, particularly in terms of how long it takes to uncover interesting behaviour in your code. We introduce DIAR, a technique designed to speedup fuzzing campaigns by pinpointing and eliminating those uninteresting bytes in the seeds. Picture this: instead of wasting valuable resources on meaningless mutations in large, bloated seeds, DIAR removes the unnecessary bytes, streamlining the entire process.
In this work, we equipped AFL, a popular fuzzer, with DIAR and examined two critical Linux libraries -- Libxml's xmllint, a tool for parsing xml documents, and Binutil's readelf, an essential debugging and security analysis command-line tool used to display detailed information about ELF (Executable and Linkable Format). Our preliminary results show that AFL+DIAR does not only discover new paths more quickly but also achieves higher coverage overall. This work thus showcases how starting with lean and optimized seeds can lead to faster, more comprehensive fuzzing campaigns -- and DIAR helps you find such seeds.
- These are slides of the talk given at IEEE International Conference on Software Testing Verification and Validation Workshop, ICSTW 2022.
Encryption in Microsoft 365 - ExpertsLive Netherlands 2024Albert Hoitingh
In this session I delve into the encryption technology used in Microsoft 365 and Microsoft Purview. Including the concepts of Customer Key and Double Key Encryption.
PHP Frameworks: I want to break free (IPC Berlin 2024)Ralf Eggert
In this presentation, we examine the challenges and limitations of relying too heavily on PHP frameworks in web development. We discuss the history of PHP and its frameworks to understand how this dependence has evolved. The focus will be on providing concrete tips and strategies to reduce reliance on these frameworks, based on real-world examples and practical considerations. The goal is to equip developers with the skills and knowledge to create more flexible and future-proof web applications. We'll explore the importance of maintaining autonomy in a rapidly changing tech landscape and how to make informed decisions in PHP development.
This talk is aimed at encouraging a more independent approach to using PHP frameworks, moving towards a more flexible and future-proof approach to PHP development.
PHP Frameworks: I want to break free (IPC Berlin 2024)
Horizon Scanning Megatrends Scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
1. 1- Horizon Scanning approaches
and links to FLIS and Global
Megatrends
2 - Long-term Future of the
Portuguese Economy - a Scenario
Building Process
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
2. ?
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
3. Horizon Scanning approaches and
links to FLIS and Global Megatrends
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
4. The DPP
Horizon Scanning
Project
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
5. The DPP Horizon Scanning Project is a systematic
process of identification, categorization and analysis
of information, enabling monitoring and warning of
trends, potential paradigm shifts, disruptions and
emerging issues.
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
6. The project aims to be useful for different objectives,
applications and users, encouraging them to better
anticipate and understand the external environment
and how it interacts with and influences their policies
and strategic decisions.
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
7. The overall objective of the DPP Horizon Scanning
project is to improve DPP’s ability to participate and
lead processes based on anticipation and preparation
for new challenges, risks and opportunities.
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
8. The project seeks to achieve a set of more specific
objectives:
• Monitoring of critical issues
• Reporting on emerging issues
• Conducting Benchmarking activities
• Analysis of opportunities and risks for new
activities/industries and/or regions
• Technology monitoring and foresight
• Foster creativity and capitalize on new ideas
• Accelerate organizational learning and agility
• Foster networking (national and international)
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
9. DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
10. Project Outputs
• Scanning Documents on trends, megatrends,
uncertainties, weak signals and wildcards (organized
according to project taxonomy)
• Scanning Database supported by Personal Brain
mind mapping software
• Production of inputs for the organisation of
Scenario´s workshops, Trend Analysis, Delphi’s,
among others
• Production of inputs for the elaboration of articles,
reports and working papers
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
11. DPP Scanning Docs
DPP Scanning Docs are a continuously updated set of
documents which organize, categorize and analyze
drivers of change (megatrends, trends, uncertainties,
weak signals and wild cards) according to a specific
taxonomy (Economy, Industries, Politics, Geopolitics,
Environment, Territory, Energy, Business, Society,
Health and Technology).
www.dpp.pt/pt/HorizonScanning/scanning-docs/Paginas/default.aspx
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
12. DPP Scanning Doc Template
1. Category: classification according to type of driver of change: megatrend, trend, uncertainty, weak signal or wild card
2. Date: document elaboration date
3. Theme: classification according to DPP HS Project Taxonomy
4. Description: brief presentation and description of the topic/driver of change
5. Keywords: significant words capable of describing the topic/driver of change
6. Indicators: warning signs that may indicate that the driver of change is growing/declining/stopping
7. Impacts: brief description of impacts, intensity, areas and points of impact. (Intensity assessed according to scale: very high,
high, medium, low, very low)
8. Degree of Exposure: assess to what extent and in which way is the system (context/external environment) prepared for the
impact of the driver of change
9. Drivers and Inhibitors: any factors which may act either in the direction of acceleration / increase in the likelihood of
occurrence / development of the driver of change (driver) or towards a slowing / reversal / decrease in the likelihood of
occurrence / cessation of the driver of change (inhibitor)
10. Main Actors/Stakeholders: Identification and brief description of the actors/stakeholders that set the present and may
influence the future evolution of the driver of change identified
11. Time Frame: when is it more plausible that the event / development occurs. Period of time elapsed until the different impacts
(Section 7) are felt (immediately, up to 1 year, 1 to 5 years, 5 to 9 years, 10 to 19 years, more than 20 years)
12. Likelihood: subjective evaluation of the probability of emergence / development / cessation of driver of change (scale: very
high, high, medium, low, very low)
13. Sources: identification and classification of the sources with date of publication and, if possible, the relevant internet link.
Fonts are classified according to the following typology: (1) fringe, (2) mainstream or (3) expert
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
13. DPP Scanning Database
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
14. DPP Scanning DB
DPP Scanning DB is a continuously updated dynamic
database, supported by specific software for viewing
and organizing information.
www.dpp.pt/pt/HorizonScanning/Paginas/Scanning-DB.aspx
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
15. FLIS and Global Megatrends
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
16. Global Megatrend
Increasing global divergence in
population trends
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
17. State of Art
A Growing population with divergent paths
Asians still dominate the world’s population;
Africans keep growing and Europeans are Latin America and North America
Caribbean Oceania
clearly in a reduction model Africa
Europe
Asia
Stabilization
Growth
60% of Europe’s population
Different evolutions: If African’s fertility growth depends on
UK and France
would surpass
rates keep current rhythm, Africa will migration flows (2010), Germany’s
have 3 billion INTERNACIONAISin E2050 and 15
E RELAÇÕES people
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA PLANEAMENTO
indicating a natural
population in
2050
billion in 2100
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
population contraction
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
18. State of Art
A Growing population with divergent paths
Young people represent the largest percentage of population in emergent and
developing countries, but there are different political and social realities, namely
in matter of gender.
19. trend
“AsiaTown”
trend
“Moving East”
trend
Demographic
divergence
trend
Medium-size
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO cities
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
20. Potential Implications
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
21. As emergent countries evolve largely supported by a youthful
society, with an ascending middle class and characterized by
unprecedented urban growth and influence, developed countries
go old and seek immigrants to assure competitiveness and
economic growth.
Migrations flows as a compensation factor for demographic aging
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
22. by 2050, we expect
about two-thirds of
the world’s people to
be living in cities.
Now the increase in
the number of city
dwellers, between
2000 and 2050 is
expected to be
about three billion
people, which was
the total population
of the Earth in 1960.
23. This demographic gap imposes a global
challenge to the planet:
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
24. The divergence in demographic trends is a major
factor in the evolution of five major drivers of
global development:
urbanization
mobility
energy
water
biodiversity
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
25. Drivers biodiversity
mobility urbanization
energy water
"In 1950, there were three times as many Europeans as
sub-Saharan Africans.
By 2100, there will be five sub-Saharan Africans for
every European”
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
• (Joel Cohen, October 2011)
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
26. Divergence in population trends: impacts and uncertainties
uncertainty:
collaborative world?
• 75% of biological
biodiversity
species could disappear
biodiversity
in a 300 to 2000 years
Uncertainty:
• Indian population
mobility
• Today, 3,5 billion
Urbanization
impacts on
surpasses mobility
world urbanization
Chinese in 2020 geopolitics
people live in
• Africans surpass and migration cities; in 2050 they
Indians in 2040 flows? will be 6,3 billion
Uncertainty:
urban conflits?
• Impacts of
• Technological capacity
energy
water
urbanization in water
Uncertainty: deeply stressed uncertainty:
• Natural limits areas water
paradigm
energy
• Climate change scarcity and
• Societal change
change or effects conflicts?
(de)growth’
s model?
27. In the case of the urbanization process that has
accelerated in recent years, translated into the fact
that half the world’s population live in cities, the
future will maintain the trend of intensification of
urban areas, which poses an enormous challenge in
terms of reconciling people with more sustainable
management of resources, financial and natural
resources such as energy and water.
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
28. The rise of the middle class and consumer power
in the cities of developing countries is an
opportunity for the growth of global activities,
especially services such as those associated with
ICT, particularly telecommunications as well as the
expanding market for activities that are going
through stagnation/contraction within the more
developed world, such as infrastructure
construction.
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
29. Therefore, this divergence in demographic trends
contains a challenge for the future urban form, with the
eventual collapse of the megacity and the emergence
of a new wave of medium-sized cities which, taken
together, justify 40% of global growth in 2025
according to the McKinsey Report “Urban World:
Mapping the economic power of cities” (March, 2011).
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
30. Vulnerabilities
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
31. The expansion of cities and the middle class in emerging
economies
The population of the developing countries represents 80%
of the world and, according to the latest UN estimates, 97%
of current population growth is justified by emerging
countries, where young people have significant weight (31%
versus 18% in developed countries).
In terms of purchasing power, there is a strong asymmetry
between emerging and developed countries, but the growth
of the middle class in emerging economies tends to be high -
two billion people could "win" the status by 2030, with
profound implications in consumption habits, use of
resources and political pressure.
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
32. Increasing pressure on natural resources
Will the planet have a capacity for more than two billion people
by mid-century? Taking food production only, according to FAO,
it would have to increase 70% over current levels, yet the
ongoing technological investment may be insufficient to ensure
this objective. The scarcity of arable agricultural land is a risk,
particularly in emerging countries, where the process of
industrialization and urbanization affects more land for city
building. The scarcity of water resources, including drinking
water affects two billion people and consumption is expected to
increase by 50% until 2025 in developing countries, at a time
when over half the globe may have interruptions in water supply.
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
33. Aging in developed countries
The trend towards an aging population seems irreversible,
and currently, more than 80 countries, representing 42% of
the world’s population, have a fertility level below the
natural replacement rate (2.1 children per woman). The trend
is most marked in Europe and Japan, which may lose half of
its population by 2100. The impacts - in terms of demand for
health care are foreseeable, increasing financial pressure on
social security systems and, therefore, questioning the
western social model, but at the same time creating
opportunities for activities related to geriatrics and senior
tourism.
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
34. Drivers and Inhibitors
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
35. Drivers
• Industrialization, urbanization and motorization in emerging
countries
• Scarcity of natural resources
• Energy and Food Insecurity
• Expansion of middle class in emergent economies;
• Aging population in developed countries
• Continuing crisis in western countries
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
36. Inhibitors
• Change in energy paradigm;
• Rise of emerging countries in value chains relating to
technology activities;
• Technology transfer from developed to emerging /
less developed countries;
• Migration flows
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
37. Main Actors/Stakehoders
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
38. We can distinguish three main groups:
• developing countries, with high rates of population growth;
• the middle-income countries, undergoing demographic stabilization but
more dynamic in domestic migration flows (from rural to urban areas; from
urban centers to the peripheries, and abroad), with risks of social exclusion
and unemployment;
• the high-income countries with an aging population, where the challenge is
the ability to integrate people.
The major Asian economies are key players in the world demographic trends. In
2025, more than 1.6 billion Asians will live in cities. China and South Asia
account for 90% of Asian population growth and 60% of the global urban
population growth between 2007 and 2025.
China and India are at the heart of this transformation - GDP per capita in
urban India is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 9% (China, 10%).
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
39. Implications for Portugal
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
40. Portugal is among the developed countries, a clear example of
aging, with the 2nd lowest fertility rate in the world (1.3 children)
for 2010-2015, along with Austria and Malta, and just behind
Bosnia-Herzegovina ( 1.1 children).
The Portuguese population is expected to start declining in 2014,
losing about 4 million inhabitants by 2100, taking into account
the "average" scenario of the United Nations; if the evolution is
is the least favorable, the loss of the resident population in
Portugal could reach 7 million people by the end of the century.
This trend has been offset precisely by immigration, considering
the last census held in 2011, especially in the coastal zone of the
capital and the Algarve region, but the majority of the territory
shows signs of shrinking population.
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
41. Zoom Portugal
Natural and migration
contraction (-4,8;-1,7)
Natural contraction and positive Natural and migration positives
immigration (-2,3;7) (3,8;25)
42. Long-term Future of the
Portuguese Economy
Authors
Department of Foresight and Planning
a Scenario Building and International Affairs
António Alvarenga (coordination)
Process
Paulo Carvalho (coordination up to May
2011)
Ângela Lobo
Catarina Rogado
Fátima Azevedo
Miguel Déjean Guerra
Sofia Rodrigues
With the collaboration of:
Manuela Proença
Ana Maria Dias
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
43. • Intro
• The workshops and their inputs
• The written Scenarios
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
44. • Intro
• The workshops and their inputs
• The written Scenarios
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
45. » Work developed by DPP within the scope of Project “HybCO2: Hybrid approaches
to evaluate the economic, environmental and technological impact of long-term low
carbon scenarios – the Portuguese case”, co-financed by the “Fundação para a
Ciência e Tecnologia” (FCT).
» The project started in 2010 and is being developed together with “Faculdade de
Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa” (FCT-UNL) and “Instituto
Superior de Economia e Gestão” (ISEG).
» HyBCO2 general goals: assessment of the implications of long-term carbon
reduction Scenarios through the development and comparison of two hybrid tools.
» Taking the Portuguese economy until 2050 as a case study, two hybrid tools are
being developed: the HYBGED model and the HYBTEP platform. Based on
Scenarios that explore possible socio-economic paths for Portugal up to 2050, the
two hybrid tools will be used to assess the cost effectiveness of the possibilities of
greenhouse gas emissions (GHG emissions) reduction and its effects on prices,
production and family income as well as on economic well-being.
» More information about the HybCO2 project on its official website:
http://hybco2.cense.fct.unl.pt/.
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
46. DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
47. Long-term Scenarios for the Portuguese Economy
Roadmap
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
48. • Intro
• The workshops and their inputs
• The written Scenarios
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
49. DPP Horizon Scanning e Cenários
Cenários, Reflexões e Planos Estratégicos de Longo Prazo em Portugal
http://www.dpp.pt/Lists/Pesquisa%20Avanada/Attachments/3088/Compilacao_Cenarios_Portugal.pdf
Projectos Internacionais de Cenários
http://www.dpp.pt/Lists/Pesquisa%20Avanada/Attachments/3089/Compilacao_Projectos_Internacionais.p
df
Colecção de Cenários Globais – Selecção e Análise de Projectos Internacionais de Cenários
http://www.dpp.pt/Lists/Pesquisa%20Avanada/Attachments/3214/Coleccao_Cenarios_Globais.pdf
DPP Scanning Docs
http://www.dpp.pt/pt/HorizonScanning/scanning-docs/Paginas/default.aspx
50. Workshop
Global Scenarios 2050
KEY UNCERTAINTIES AND POSSIBLE SCENARIO STRUCTURES
8th November 2010
Fundação Calouste Gulbenkian
Lisboa
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E
PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério do Ambiente e do Ordenamento do
Território
51. Global Scenarios 2050 Workshop
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
52. • Context-specific approach
• Project, methodology (and even tool) design
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
54. A NOTE ON METHODOLOGY I
Workshop methodology: an
adaptation (of a section) of the
intuitive-logics scenario-building
approach
55. The future will result from the interaction
between Megatrends coming from the
past and shaping the future, Weak
Signals or issues at an embrionary stage
of development, Wildcards that might
surprise us in a positive or negative way,
and Structural Uncertainties that might
take us not just for one but for a plurality
of possible futures.
56. Strategic Focus Time horizon Trends
Megatrends Weak Signals
KEY CONCEPTS
Uncertainties /
Wildcards
Key Uncertainties
Structures, systems Visions /
Scenarios
and heuristics “Intents”
57.
58. Paulo Soeiro de Carvalho
António Alvarenga
Catarina Rogado
Sofia Rodrigues
Miguel Guerra
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E
PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério do Ambiente e do Ordenamento do
Território
59. Júlia Seixas Manuel Mira Godinho
Ana Maria Fernandes António Manzoni
António de Melo Pires Manuela Proença
Ângela Lobo Miguel Duarte Pereira
Guta Moura Guedes Miguel Monjardino
Helena Cordeiro Natalino Martins
João Caraça Nuno Ribeiro da Silva
José Emílio Amaral Gomes Pedro Moreira
José Maria Brandão de Brito Roberto Carneiro
Luís Campos e Cunha Stephan Magnus
Luís Nazaré Vítor Bento
Jorge Marrão João Ferrão
Maria da Luz Correia Miguel St Aubyn
Patríc ia Fortes
62. Four Global Critical Uncertainties selected by the
Participants in the “Global Scenarios 2050 Workshop”
Disruptive Emergence of a New Technology Paradigm Incremental
Coexistence Religion Conflict
“Flat” Globalization “Mega-countries”
Western Ideas Rule(s) Setting New Paradigm; “Merge"
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
64. 3 Scenario Matrixes
(12 potential Scenarios – initial exploration)
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
65.
66. Workshops
Long-term socio-economic
Scenarios for Portugal
27th April and 4th May 2011
Casa do Ambiente e do Cidadão, Lisboa
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E
PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério do Ambiente e do Ordenamento do
Território
67. Scenarios for Portugal 2050 Workshop
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
69. The final version of the Timeline already benefiting from the reactions and suggestions of the workshop attendees, was
also published under the form of DPP Insights with the title “Timeline: A Economia Portuguesa no Contexto Global”
(Alvarenga & Rogado, 2011). Both the compilation and a first version of the Timeline played a core role in the preparation
and implementation of the “Scenarios for Portugal 2050” workshops and of the contents analysed.
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
70. What might define the future?
What will remain?
Structural limitations?
What can project Portugal?
71. Strategic Focus Time horizon Trends
Megatrends Weak Signals
KEY CONCEPTS
Uncertainties /
Wildcards
Key Uncertainties
Structures, systems Visions /
Scenarios
and heuristics “Intents”
73. 1 2 3 4
Evolução do Perfil de Posição e Função de Preferências e Apostas ao Conectividade
Especialização da Economia Portugal no Sistema nível dos Relacionamentos (Física e Digital)
Portuguesa Internacional de Transportes Geoeconómicos por parte de Portugal na
e Logística dos Poderes Públicos e Economia Global
(Padrão de Actividades Investidores Portugueses
Exportadoras)
5 6
Padrão de Urbanização
e Organização do Território
PORTUGAL 2050 Evolução das Soluções/
Plataformas Energéticas e
INCERTEZAS POTENCIAIS de Mobilidade
7 8 9 10
Evolução do Modelo de Tipologia e Papel das Intensidade, Impactos Evolução dos Sistemas de
Coesão Social Português Cidades e Gestão do(s) Ensino e Formação em
no Desenvolvimento do País Envelhecimento(s) da Portugal
(Mercado Trabalho; Ensino e População em Portugal
Formação; Protecção Social; (Qualidade, eficiência, eficácia,
Saúde) (Ligação com Sistemas de …)
Pensões e de Saúde)
76. 1 2 3 4
Evolution of the Structure and Financial Sustainability of the Political System Model Institutional Capacity Building of
Specialisation of the Portuguese Portuguese Economy the Portuguese Economy and
Economy Society
• Exporting activities and internationalisation • External imbalances • Evolution of democracy
• Position in the value chains of goods and • National debt + private debt • Attractiveness of other solutions • Evolution and credibility of the institutions
services traded internationally • Ability and promptness in solving financial • Social capital
• Insertion in the international division of imbalances
labour.
6
5 Strategic Leadership and Pro-
Cultural Values and Ability to
Generate Social Capital
PORTUGAL 2050 activity of the Economic Agents
• Cultural changes
POTENTIAL UNCERTAINTIES • Political System
• Alignment and mobilisation of the players
• Confidence • Strategic vision and quality of governance
• Individual benefit vs. collective benefit
• Capacity of innovation and societal change
(Workshop 2)
7 8 9 10
Evolution of the Portuguese social Typology and Role of the Cities in Generational Uncertainty - how is Evolution of the Education and
cohesion model Spatial Planning the next generation going to live? Training Systems in Portugal
• Territorial cohesion • Generational conflicts • Human capital
• Redistributive mechanisms • Dynamics of urbanisation • Generational cohesion and solidarity • Quality and efficiency of the systems
• Labour market • Networks of cities • Connection and harmony with the labour
• Education and Training market
• Social protection • Training throughout life
• Health
77. Focus on high added value products
Evolution of the
Structure and Focus on the industry and in sectors of undifferentiated products with
1 Specialisation of the low profit margins
Portuguese Economy
Dualist Model – Mix of the two previous models
Deterioration of the external accounts and of the budget imbalances -
“THE HOLE”
Financial
2 Sustainability of
Portugal
Improvement of the financial and economic governance – “FÉNIX”
Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE”
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
78. Decentralised, participatory and open Democracy (including new forms
of representation)
Political System
3 Model and State
Configuration
Autocratic, probably centralised and/or devolved
Centralised democracy, the State configuration with a tendency to be a
provider
Institutional renewal; efficacy and efficiency
Institutional Capacity
Building of the
4 Portuguese Economy
Institutional degradation
and Society
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
79. Perpetuation of the current cultural values and social capital (Business-
as-Usual); low confidence levels in the civil society
Cultural Values and
Capacity for reversing the current situation by creating social capital
5 Ability to Generate
Social Capital
(endogenously created); a more entrepreneurial society
Capacity for reversing the current situation by creating social capital,
imposed from abroad; less profound change than the previous
configuration; adaptive evolution
Absence of vision and quality in managing the public interest, keeping
the erratic nature of governance – “THE SPANISH INN”
Strategic Leadership
Technical quality in managing the public interest, stability trust – “SUNNY
6 and Pro-activity of
the Economic Agents
ROAD”
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
80. Adaptive evolution regarding the European standard
Evolution of the
7 Portuguese Social
Cohesion Model
Social model that can become reinforced
Rupture of the current cohesion model; fragmentation (for instance:
working in Portugal with labour contracts subject to another country’s
jurisdiction)
Urbanisation reinforcement with the increase of conflicts within the city
Typology and Role of
Urbanisation reinforcement with the city as a virtuous model but
8 the Cities in Spatial
Planning
disaggregated from the rest of the territory
Stabilisation of the urban dimension with an urban-rural partnership
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
81. Coexistence – two parallel worlds, two different generations with no
interaction
Generational
Uncertainty (how Conflicts due to values, practices and dependence relations;
9 the next generation generational conflict
is going to live)
Cohesion – intercultural differences as a source of new practices and
knowledge
Increase in the quality and importance of the production and
transmission of knowledge
Evolution of the
Education and Reduction in the quality and importance of the production and
10 Training Systems in transmission of knowledge
Portugal
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
82. The next task was based, in methodological terms, on Morphological
Analysis. It departed from the Critical Uncertainties and respective
Configurations to the building of the Base Structures of “Portugal
Scenarios 2050”. A table with the Critical Uncertainties and defined
Configurations was distributed and the participants, organised in
working groups, were asked to select combinations of configurations
of the Critical Uncertainties in order to obtain two distinct Scenario
Structures
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
83. A NOTE ON METHODOLOGY II
an adaptation of the
Morphological Analysis logic to
an workshop/participatory
context.
84. Portugal 13 Points – SUF+ Portugal 18 Points – Very Good
Focus on industry and on sectors of Focus on industry and on sectors of
Dualist Model – Mix of the two Dualist Model – Mix of the two
Focus on high added value products undifferentiated products with low Focus on high added value products undifferentiated products with low
previous models previous models
margins margins
Deterioration of external accounts Deterioration of external accounts
Improvement of financial and economic Improvement of financial and
and of budget imbalances - “THE Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE” and of budget imbalances - “THE Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE”
governance – “FÉNIX” economic governance – “FÉNIX”
HOLE” HOLE”
Decentralised, participatory and Centralised democracy, the State Decentralised, participatory and open Centralised democracy, the State
Autocratic, probably centralised and/or Autocratic, probably centralised
open Democracy (including new configuration with a tendency to be a Democracy (including new forms of configuration with a tendency to be a
decentralised and/or decentralised
forms of representation) provider representation) provider
Institutional renewal; efficacy and Institutional renewal; efficacy and
Institutional degradation Institutional degradation
efficiency efficiency
Capacity for reversing the current Capacity for reversing the current
Perpetuation of the current cultural Capacity for reversing the current Perpetuation of the current cultural Capacity for reversing the current
situation by creating social capital, situation by creating social capital,
values and social capital (Business- situation by creating social capital values and social capital (Business-as- situation by creating social capital
imposed abroad; less profound imposed abroad; less profound
as-Usual); low confidence levels in (endogenously created); a more Usual); low confidence levels in the (endogenously created); a more
change than the previous change than the previous
the civil society entrepreneurial society civil society entrepreneurial society
configuration; adaptive evolution configuration; adaptive evolution
Absence of vision and quality in Absence of vision and quality in
Technical quality in managing the Technical quality in managing the
managing the public interest, managing the public interest, keeping
public interest, stability trust – “SUNNY public interest, stability trust –
keeping the erratic nature of the erratic nature of governance –
ROAD” “SUNNY ROAD”
governance – “THE SPANISH INN” “THE SPANISH INN”
Rupture of the current cohesion Rupture of the current cohesion
model; fragmentation (for instance: model; fragmentation (for instance:
Adaptive evolution regarding the Social model that can become Adaptive evolution regarding the Social model that can become
working in Portugal with labour working in Portugal with labour
European standard reinforced European standard reinforced
contracts subject to another country’s contracts subject to another country’s
jurisdiction) jurisdiction)
Urbanisation reinforcement with the Urbanisation reinforcement with the
Urbanisation reinforcement with the city as a virtuous model but Stabilisation of the urban dimension Urbanisation reinforcement with the city as a virtuous model but Stabilisation of the urban dimension
increase of conflicts within the city disaggregated from the rest of the with an urban-rural partnership increase of conflicts within the city disaggregated from the rest of the with an urban-rural partnership
territory territory
Coexistence – two parallel worlds, Conflicts due to values, practices and Cohesion – intercultural differences Coexistence – two parallel worlds, Conflicts due to values, practices and Cohesion – intercultural differences
two different generations with no dependence relations; generational as a source of new practices and two different generations with no dependence relations; generational as a source of new practices and
interaction conflict knowledge interaction conflict knowledge
Increase in the quality and Reduction in the quality and Increase in the quality and Reduction in the quality and
importance of the production and importance of the production and importance of the production and importance of the production and
transmission of knowledge transmission of knowledge transmission of knowledge transmission of knowledge
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
85. Decline Affirmation
Focus on industry and on sectors of Focus on industry and on sectors of
Dualist Model – Mix of the two Dualist Model – Mix of the two
Focus on high added value products undifferentiated products with low Focus on high added value products undifferentiated products with low
previous models previous models
margins margins
Deterioration of external accounts Deterioration of external accounts
Improvement of financial and Improvement of financial and
and of budget imbalances - “THE Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE” and of budget imbalances - “THE Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE”
economic governance – “FÉNIX” economic governance – “FÉNIX”
HOLE” HOLE”
Decentralised, participatory and open Centralised democracy, the State Decentralised, participatory and open Centralised democracy, the State
Autocratic, probably centralised Autocratic, probably centralised
Democracy (including new forms of configuration with a tendency to be a Democracy (including new forms of configuration with a tendency to be a
and/or decentralised and/or decentralised
representation) provider representation) provider
Institutional renewal; efficacy and Institutional renewal; efficacy and
Institutional degradation Institutional degradation
efficiency efficiency
Capacity for reversing the current Capacity for reversing the current
Perpetuation of the current cultural Capacity for reversing the current Perpetuation of the current cultural Capacity for reversing the current
situation by creating social capital, situation by creating social capital,
values and social capital (Business-as- situation by creating social capital values and social capital (Business-as- situation by creating social capital
imposed abroad; less profound imposed abroad; less profound
Usual); low confidence levels in the (endogenously created); a more Usual); low confidence levels in the (endogenously created); a more
change than the previous change than the previous
civil society entrepreneurial society civil society entrepreneurial society
configuration; adaptive evolution configuration; adaptive evolution
Absence of vision and quality in Absence of vision and quality in
Technical quality in managing the Technical quality in managing the
managing the public interest, keeping managing the public interest, keeping
public interest, stability trust – public interest, stability trust –
the erratic nature of governance – the erratic nature of governance –
“SUNNY ROAD” “SUNNY ROAD”
“THE SPANISH INN” “THE SPANISH INN”
Rupture of the current cohesion Rupture of the current cohesion
model; fragmentation (for instance: model; fragmentation (for instance:
Adaptive evolution regarding the Social model that can become Adaptive evolution regarding the Social model that can become
working in Portugal with labour working in Portugal with labour
European standard reinforced European standard reinforced
contracts subject to another contracts subject to another
country’s jurisdiction) country’s jurisdiction)
Urbanisation reinforcement with the Urbanisation reinforcement with the
Urbanisation reinforcement with the city as a virtuous model but Stabilisation of the urban dimension Urbanisation reinforcement with the city as a virtuous model but Stabilisation of the urban dimension
increase of conflicts within the city disaggregated from the rest of the with an urban-rural partnership increase of conflicts within the city disaggregated from the rest of the with an urban-rural partnership
territory territory
Coexistence – two parallel worlds, Conflicts due to values, practices and Cohesion – intercultural differences Coexistence – two parallel worlds, Conflicts due to values, practices and Cohesion – intercultural differences
two different generations with no dependence relations; generational as a source of new practices and two different generations with no dependence relations; generational as a source of new practices and
interaction conflict knowledge interaction conflict knowledge
Increase in the quality and Reduction in the quality and Increase in the quality and Reduction in the quality and
importance of the production and importance of the production and importance of the production and importance of the production and
transmission of knowledge transmission of knowledge transmission of knowledge transmission of knowledge
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
86. Portugal “Camilo Alves” Portugal “Vintage”
Focus on industry and on sectors of Focus on industry and on sectors of
Dualist Model – Mix of the two Dualist Model – Mix of the two
Focus on high added value products undifferentiated products with low Focus on high added value products undifferentiated products with low
previous models previous models
margins margins
Deterioration of external accounts Deterioration of external accounts
Improvement of financial and Improvement of financial and
and of budget imbalances - “THE Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE” and of budget imbalances - “THE Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE”
economic governance – “FÉNIX” economic governance – “FÉNIX”
HOLE” HOLE”
Decentralised, participatory and Centralised democracy, the State Decentralised, participatory and Centralised democracy, the State
Autocratic, probably centralised Autocratic, probably centralised
open Democracy (including new configuration with a tendency to be a open Democracy (including new configuration with a tendency to be a
and/or decentralised and/or decentralised
forms of representation) provider forms of representation) provider
Institutional renewal; efficacy and Institutional renewal; efficacy and
Institutional degradation Institutional degradation
efficiency efficiency
Capacity for reversing the current Capacity for reversing the current
Perpetuation of the current cultural Capacity for reversing the current Perpetuation of the current cultural Capacity for reversing the current
situation by creating social capital, situation by creating social capital,
values and social capital (Business-as- situation by creating social capital values and social capital (Business-as- situation by creating social capital
imposed abroad; less profound imposed abroad; less profound
Usual); low confidence levels in the (endogenously created); a more Usual); low confidence levels in the (endogenously created); a more
change than the previous change than the previous
civil society entrepreneurial society civil society entrepreneurial society
configuration; adaptive evolution configuration; adaptive evolution
Absence of vision and quality in Absence of vision and quality in
Technical quality in managing the Technical quality in managing the
managing the public interest, keeping managing the public interest, keeping
public interest, stability trust – public interest, stability trust –
the erratic nature of governance – the erratic nature of governance –
“SUNNY ROAD” “SUNNY ROAD”
“THE SPANISH INN” “THE SPANISH INN”
Rupture of the current cohesion Rupture of the current cohesion
model; fragmentation (for instance: model; fragmentation (for instance:
Adaptive evolution regarding the Social model that can become Adaptive evolution regarding the Social model that can become
working in Portugal with labour working in Portugal with labour
European standard reinforced European standard reinforced
contracts subject to another contracts subject to another
country’s jurisdiction) country’s jurisdiction)
Urbanisation reinforcement with the Urbanisation reinforcement with the
Urbanisation reinforcement with the city as a virtuous model but Stabilisation of the urban dimension Urbanisation reinforcement with the city as a virtuous model but Stabilisation of the urban dimension
increase of conflicts within the city disaggregated from the rest of the with an urban-rural partnership increase of conflicts within the city disaggregated from the rest of the with an urban-rural partnership
territory territory
Coexistence – two parallel worlds, Conflicts due to values, practices and Cohesion – intercultural differences Coexistence – two parallel worlds, Conflicts due to values, practices and Cohesion – intercultural differences
two different generations with no dependence relations; generational as a source of new practices and two different generations with no dependence relations; generational as a source of new practices and
interaction conflict knowledge interaction conflict knowledge
Increase in the quality and Reduction in the quality and Increase in the quality and Reduction in the quality and
importance of the production and importance of the production and importance of the production and importance of the production and
transmission of knowledge transmission of knowledge transmission of knowledge transmission of knowledge
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território
Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga