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A Brief Overview of Strategic Foresight - Workshop Slides for SSE-O

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These slides supported a workshop conducted with students from the School for Social Entrepreneurs - Ontario to get their feet wet around strategic foresight. It offers a rapid glimpse at the foresight process engaging them in a slice of a few rapid methods.

Published in: Government & Nonprofit
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A Brief Overview of Strategic Foresight - Workshop Slides for SSE-O

  1. 1. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 1 STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP SSE-O
  2. 2. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 2 TODAY’S SESSION A BIT OF BACKGROUND. THEN, WE ARE GOING TO ROLL UP OUR SLEEVES & DIG IN. AT THE END, WE WILL HAVE A QUICK REFLECTION.
  3. 3. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 3 WHAT IS STRATEGIC FORESIGHT?
  4. 4. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 4 WHAT IS STRATEGIC FORESIGHT? GATHERING INTELLIGENCE ABOUT POSSIBLE FUTURES TO INFORM PRESENT DAY DECISIONS
  5. 5. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 5 WHY STRATEGIC FORESIGHT?
  6. 6. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 6 WHY STRATEGIC FORESIGHT?
  7. 7. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 7 WHY STRATEGIC FORESIGHT? SOCIAL ENTREPRENEURS ARE CREATING INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS FOR TOMORROW . . . SO THEY NEED TO RESPOND TO POSSIBLE CHANGES WITH VISION AND ONGOING AWARENESS
  8. 8. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 8 HOW DO WE DO STRATEGIC FORESIGHT?
  9. 9. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 9 HOW DO WE DO STRATEGIC FORESIGHT? IDENTIFY TRENDS UNDERSTAND DRIVERS CREATE SCENARIOS INFORM STRATEGY
  10. 10. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 10 WE WILL EXPERIMENT WITH A RAPID FORESIGHT PROCESS TOGETHER . . . OUR FOCUS IS TORONTO IN 2030 [BUT YOU COULD USE THIS TO EXPLORE THE FUTURE OF THE UNITED CHURCH, ALTERNATIVE HEALTH, FARM- ING, IMMIGRATION IN CANADA, ETC.]
  11. 11. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 11 TIPS 1. PAY ATTENTION TO WEAK SIGNALS OF CHANGE. 2. UNDERSTAND THAT USEFUL INSIGHTS ABOUT THE FUTURE AT FIRST APPEAR RIDICULOUS. 3. CHALLENGE PRESENT ASSUMPTIONS AND PLAY WITH THE POSSIBILITIES. 4. RIGOROUSLY IMAGINE THE FUTURE - STRETCHING PLAUSIBILITY, BUT NOT BREAKING IT. 5. EXPLORE INTERSECTIONS, NOT ISOLATED EVENTS. 6. DON’T JUST THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE, PUT YOURSELF IN THE FUTURE. 7. THERE ARE MULTIPLE POSSIBLE REACTIONS TO THE FUTURE: ADAPTATION, MITIGATION OR INFLUENCE.
  12. 12. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 12 IDENTIFYING TRENDS CURRENT CHANGES OVER TIME SOCIAL (DEMOGRAPHICS, LIFESTYLES, SOCIAL AND CULTURAL VALUES, BEHAVIOR) TECHNOLOGICAL (INNOVATION, PRODUCTS, COMMUNICATION, RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT) ECONOMICAL (JOBS, INCOME, TRADE, PROFIT, TAXES) ENVIRONMENTAL (ECOSYSTEMS< WATER, FOOD, ENERGY) POLITICAL(POWER, LAWS, INTERESTS, DIRECTIONS, AGREEMENTS)
  13. 13. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 13 IDENTIFYING TRENDS TASK: IDENTIFY ONE CURRENT TREND IN TORONTO RIGHT NOW AND WRITE IT ON A POST-IT TWO WORLDS, ONE CITY (INCOME POLARIZATION ANDCONCENTRATION) GIVE IT A FUN NAME. CALL OUT IT’S SIGNALS. EXTRAPOLATE IT TO 2030.
  14. 14. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 14 UNDERSTAND DRIVERS THE UNDERLYING FORCES OF CHANGE TASK: MAP THE INFLUENCES BETWEEN TRENDS AND KEY UNDERLYING FORCES. IDENTIFY THE MOST CRITICAL AND UNCERTAIN DRIVERS.
  15. 15. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 15 CREATE SCENARIOS STORIES OF POSSIBLE FUTURE WORLDS THERE ARE MANY WAYS TO BUILD SCENARIOS. WE ARE GOING TO USE A SIMPLE 2 BY 2 MATRIX TO IMAGINE TORONTO IN 2030. HIGHLOW FAST SLOW SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 2 SCENARIO 3 SCENARIO 4
  16. 16. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 16 CREATE SCENARIOS WHAT WOULD IT BE LIKE TO LIVE IN THE CITY IN THIS FUTURE? HOW IS IT DIFFERENT THAN TODAY? WHAT MIGHT SURPRISE YOU ABOUT THIS FUTURE? WHAT WOULD STAY THE SAME? WHAT ARE SOME OF THE ISSUES IN THE NEWS? WHAT HAPPENED IN THE PAST THAT CREATED THIS? TASK: IN A SMALL GROUP, WORK TO OUTLINE A SCENARIO FROM ONE OF THE FOUR QUADRANTS.
  17. 17. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 17 INFORM STRATEGY PLANS AND PROCESSES TO ACHIEVE GOALS SCENARIOS CAN BE UTILIZED TO INSPIRE NEW STRATEGIES, TEST CURRENT STRATEGIES, AND REFINE DIRECTIONS.
  18. 18. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 18 INFORM STRATEGY PLANS AND PROCESSES TO ACHIEVE GOALS TASK: IDENTIFY NEW AND OLD STRATEGIES FOR THE CITY OF TORONTO AND SEE IF THEY WOULD BE BENEFICIAL IN EACH OF THE FOUR POSSIBLE FUTURES. SCENARIOS 1 2 3 4 Invest in improving supports for low-income families Build more parks and green spaces in the city
  19. 19. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 19 NOW THAT IS STRATEGIC FORESIGHT. BUT IT IS NOT JUST A ONE TIME THING. THERE IS A NEED FOR ONGOING SCANNING AND ADJUSTMENT BASED ON CHANGES. PLUS, RESEARCH & DIVERSE VOICES MAKES THE PROCESS MORE RELIABLE.
  20. 20. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 20 FORESIGHT RESOURCES Example Foresight Projects 2020 Media Futures (OCADU) https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4QDksTjawdNb1l5MDR5WUp4eUE/edit?usp=sharing Future of Asia (Policy Horizons Canada) http://www.horizons.gc.ca/sites/default/files/Publication-alt-format/pdf_ version_0240_1.67mb_57pages_1.pdf Future of Specialized Health Care Providers (OCADU Student Project) http://www.slideshare.net/JosinaV/dossier-future-of- specialized-services-sfi-foresight-project?utm_source=slideshow&utm_medium=ssemail&utm_campaign=post_upload Foresight Resources Scenario Planning [UK Horizon Scanning Centre] https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4QDksTjawdNNHRVZ2FEdXZwRnc/ edit?usp=sharing Future Savvy [Adam Gordon] https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4QDksTjawdNSkVWVlVKaGpmQlE/edit?usp=sharing Foresight Methodology [Popper] https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4QDksTjawdNeWpuaDM4WHVqWm8/edit?usp=sharing Scenario Based Strategy In Practice [Louis van der Merwe] https://drive.google.com/file/ d/0B4QDksTjawdNeWpuaDM4WHVqWm8/edit?usp=sharing Learnings from the Long View [Peter Schwartz] https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4QDksTjawdNSjdQamw3Y2kxOFE/ edit?usp=sharing Three Horizons Method [Hodgson & Curry] http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/13-1/A01.pdf
  21. 21. SSE-O STRATEGIC FORESIGHT WORKSHOP | JOSINA VINK | @JOSINAVINK 21 REFLECTIONS HOW DID THIS WACKY FUTURES STUFF FEEL FOR YOU? WHAT DID YOU LIKE/DISLIKE ABOUT THIS PROCESS? HOW COULD YOU IMAGINE USING THIS FOR VENTURE DEVELOPMENT?

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