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IRJET- Feasibility Study of Residential Building
1.
International Research Journal
of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056 Volume: 06 Issue: 05 | May 2019 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072 © 2019, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 7.211 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 7937 Feasibility Study of Residential Building Aishwarya Patil1, Bhushan V. Tatar2 1Post Graduate Student, Department of Civil Engineering, SOET, Sandip University, Nashik (Maharashtra, India) 2Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, SOET, Sandip University, Nashik (Maharashtra, India) ---------------------------------------------------------------------***--------------------------------------------------------------------- Abstract – Residential apartment are being adopted in India by project promoters. Before commencement of any project it is very essential to perform feasibility study. Project cash flow affected by many factors duringconstructionperiod. Those factors can be identified by risk assessment and known as Critical factors. Considering those critical factors and their combinations will form possible situations which may occur during the construction period. This paper uses method of internal rate of return after analysing of each possible situation with cost of capital of company and able to determine the practical feasibility of residential and commercial project for each situation. For improving decision making how sensitivityanalysisis superior forexploringmodel is to aid the decision maker. To develop effective interactive visualization techniques and to assist people who are using models for decision making but who need to explore the often complex relationships between the values of model variables and the model output is the ultimate goal of this study. Hence, before commencement of project feasibility study is essential. After preparing a sensitivity model of residential and commercial project, this model can be implement to other projects. After preparing sensitivity model of residential building it has been observed that, the cost of capital of company is 10.74% and also if booking rate is 40-50% then project is observed to be not feasible. Key Words: Critical Factors, Internal Rate of Return, Net Present Value, Sensitivity Analysis, etc. 1. INTRODUCTION Every construction project should give benefits for the investor. These benefits consist of profit, business development, resources utilization etc. Profits are achieved in long period and should have an accurate investment forecast so the investors still have willingness to invest their money. Effective and efficient use of land not only reduces the routine expenditures but also exchange into income source. Project feasibility study is used to get the alternatives of optimal land use that give the highest profits. Feasibility study analysis also gives information about the value of investment and the benefits that investors will get. Definite return of investmentcanbeseenfrom feasibility study. Commonly, Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Payback Period are value that used by investor to consider this project is feasible or not. According to the characteristic of construction industry, this has high uncertainty, so it will occur many risks duringconstructionphaseandor operational building. Risks caninfluencetheprofitand it will decrease the feasibility parameter until infeasible condition for investing the project. To those assumption, risks should have been anticipated and calculate it into the feasibility analysis. Investment in construction project is able to give higher benefit beside of its high uncertainty. The uncertainty depends on many risk factors. The influence of the identified risk then has to be evaluated and calculated towards the project feasibility. Before investment, the feasibilityof the project has to be done that gives figures of cash flow on the following years. This can be one of the considerations for making a decision whether this project is feasible or not. Risks that overshadow the construction project have to be calculated as aninfluential factortowardsthefailureof a project. To know the feasibilityofresidentialbuilding by calculating the risk factors and the feasibility study can be calculated with financial analysis of residential building by using sensitivity analysis. To determine critical factors and their combination this will represent a possible situation. 2. LITERATURE REVIEW Anna Regina Bjornsdottir (2010) studied the role of financial feasibility analysis in the decision-making process and ways to conduct financial feasibility analysis. A general model, which can be used to assess the financial feasibility of investment projects, was presented and effective model-building techniques were introduced [1]. Jean Imbs (2003) studied the sensitivity analysis for the results described inthemainpaper.Allconclusions continue to prevail with a variety of alternative measurement strategies, using different data sources, in an international dataset pertainingtoU.SStates,and when alternativecontrolsforcyclesynchronizationare included [3].
2.
International Research Journal
of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056 Volume: 06 Issue: 05 | May 2019 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072 © 2019, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 7.211 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 7938 Nerija Banaitiene and Audrius Banaitis identified that risk managementisknowledgeableareapropagatedby the project management institute. It is a comprehensive and systematic way of identifying, analysing and responding to risks to achieve the project objective. Large construction project are exposed to uncertain environment because of such factors as planning, design and construction complexity, presence of various interest groups, resources availability, environmental factors, the economic and political environment and statutory regulations.Constructionprojectscanbeunpredictable .Managing risk in construction project has been recognized as a very importanat process in order to achieve project objectives in terms of time, cost, quality, safety and environmental sustainability. It is a iterative process and is beneficial when it is implemented in a systematic manner. Risk factors on construction projects can be split into two major groups mainly internal risks and external risk [7]. 3. FINDING AND SUMMARY STATISTICS Case Study: Shree Tirumala Riviera, which is the first ever project in Nashik that is IGBC Gold pre-certified. ‘Zero discharge’ concept is used in this project the grey water discharged is filtered and recycled for the use of horticulture, washing and crushing. So all the water which is used is recycled water. Around 90 per cent process is being recycled and reused in the project. The project is under construction phase. Estimated cost of project: 2.73 cr Estimated cost of construction: 8 cr Area: 8.5 acre (Rs.11000 per sq. yard) Construction period: 2 years. Debt-Equity ratio: 30:70 Maintenance cost: Rs.145 per sq.ft.(one time maintenance ) Loan period: 2 years Cost of debt: 12% Cost of Equity: 12% Tc: Effective tax rate applied to interest: 12% For this project we are going to calculate the cost of c apital by using WeightedAverage Cost of Capitals (W ACC) method. The definition ofweighted average cost of capitals is calculation of a firm’s cost of capital in w hich each category of capital isproportionately weigh ted. All capital sources- common stock, preferred stock, any other long term debt are included in WACC calculation. All else help equal,the WACC of a firm increases as th e beta and rate of return on equity increases, as an increase in WACC notes a decrease in valuation and a higher risk. The formulae for the calculation of WACC are given bel ow: WACC = E/V* Re + D/V* Rd * (1-Tc) The critical variables, which will affect the project, are gi ven below: 1. Booking 2. Loan period 3. Delay in construction period (Generally 15% cost increase per yr.) The determination of critical factors which affects the cash inflows of a project and preparation of cash flow statement gives net present value for each situation considering the critical factors andtheircombinations. In this study,thefollowingresultsarecomesout,which helps us to determine the feasibility of Residential project. Graphical representation of Sensitivity Analysis: NORMAL SITUATION: SITUATION NO NPV PBP B/C 1 47590415 3.448 2.13 2 10177964 8.6 1.18 3 45596695 29.33 1.88 4 41291984 4.01 1.708 5 8184244 29.66 1.14 6 4693654 11.25 1.073 7 39298256 6.648 1.659 8 2699926 11.75 1.041
3.
International Research Journal
of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056 Volume: 06 Issue: 05 | May 2019 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072 © 2019, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 7.211 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 7939 BOOKING SITUATION: SITUATION NO % BOOKING NPV PBP B/C 1 20 -6000000 0.035 2 40 -4000000 0.34 3 60 -8000000 0.79 4 80 1766055 4.63 1.32 5 100 47590415 4.13 1.94 CONSTRUCTION PERIOD: SITUATION NO BOOKING % NPV PBP B/C 1 24 47590415 4.13 1.94 2 27 44354286 4.06 1.81 3 30 43667120 4.12 1.65 4 33 40897610 3.21 1.62 5 36 38176098 3.22 1.565 6 39 36541098 3.23 40.14 7 42 33519877 3.24 40.1 LOAN PERIOD: SITUATION NO PERIOD IN MONTH NPV PBP B/C 1 24 47590415 3.44 1.94 2 27 46587334 3.44 1.91 3 30 45596681 3.44 1.88 4 33 44612847 3.44 1.853 5 36 43632090 3.44 1.822 6 39 42661683 3.45 1.792 7 42 41702387 3.45 1.762 Combination of critical factors will make different situations, which may arise in residential project and commercial project, they are listed below: Normal situation:-Booking100%,LoanPeriod- 2 years, Construction Period-2 year in each phase. Only change in booking:-75%booking
4.
International Research Journal
of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056 Volume: 06 Issue: 05 | May 2019 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072 © 2019, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 7.211 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 7940 Only change in loan period:-Loan period increase by 30 months. Only change in construction period:-Delay in construction period by 30 months Only change in booking and loan period:-75% booking and loan period increase by 30 months. Change in construction period and booking:- construction periodincreaseby30monthsand 75 % booking. Change in construction period and loan period:-delay in construction period by 30 months and loan period by 30 months. Change in all variable:-Loanperiodincreaseby 30 months, constructionperiod increaseby30 months and booking is 75% 4. CONCLUSIONS Study of Residential suggest that, it is not that much easy to predict the feasibility of project. To check the feasibility of such project, there is need to listoutthose factors which cannot be control by project promoters, but such factors greatlyaffectontheprojectcashflows. And after determining those factors, we would able to perform sensitivity analysis of such project. In residential project every project investment proposal, there should be at least 10% profit over the total expenditure in worst possiblecasealso.‘Situation 8’ is the worst possible case among all, as in this case there is change in all critical factors. After performing sensitivity analysis of residential project, there is positiveNPVforsituationnoall.Which indicate residential project is feasible for these four situations. And there is negative NPV for situation no. 2, 5, 6 & 8 which indicate the project is not feasible for these four situations. Hence, it is needed to overcome on infeasible situations byadoptingsuitablemeasures. After performing Parameter sensitivity of Residential project, it was found that, ‘Booking’ is the one parameter, which gives a very sensitive model. As the percentage of booking varies, it greatly affects on project cash flow. Parameter sensitivity Suggest that, ‘Delay in construction’ is the one parameter, which gives a moderate sensitive model. As the construction period increases, it moderately affects on project cash flow. Parameter sensitivity also suggestthat,‘Loanperiod’is the one parameter, whichgiveslowsensitivemodel.As the result shows, there is slight variation in project cash flow as compare to other two parameters. REFERENCES [1] Anna Regina Bjornsdottir (2010), ‘Financial Feasibility Assessments’, School of Engineering and Natural Sciences University of Iceland, Reykjavik, January [2] Hariharan Subramanyam, Priyarshi H. Sawant and Vandana Bhatt (2012), ‘Construction Project Risk Assessment: Development of Model Based on Investigation of OpinionofConstructionProjectExpert from India’, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE,Page no.409-421 [3] Jean Imbs (2003), ‘Trade, Finance, Specialization and Synchronization: Sensitivity Analysis’, London Business School and CEPR, page no. 1-9 [4] Li Bing and Robert L.K. Tiong (1999), ‘Risk Management Model For International Construction JointVentures’,Journalofconstructionengineeringand Management, September/October, page no. 377-384 [5]Lucia Breierova and Mark Choudhari (1996), ‘An Introduction to Sensitivity Analysis’, MIT System Dynamics in Education Project, September [6] Mehran Zeynalian,BambangTrigunarsyahAndH.R. Ronagh (2013), ‘Modification of Advanced Programmatic Risk Analysis And ManagementForThe Whole Project Life Cycles Risks’, Journal Of Construction Engineering And Management, page no.51-5 [7]Nerija Banaitiene and Audrius Banaitis, ‘Risk Management In Construction Projects’, Department Of Construction Economics And Property Management, Vilnius, Lithuania, page no.429-448 [8]R. Gregory Michel (2001), ‘Net Present Value Analysis’, Government Finance Review, pageno.27-31
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