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International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056
Volume: 05 Issue: 03 | Mar-2018 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072
© 2018, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 6.171 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 1460
A case Study on Risk Identification and Risk Assessment in Real Estate
Projects
1M.E Student , Dept. Of (Civil Infrastructure) Engineering, L.D.R.P Institute of Technology Research,
Gujarat, India
2Assistant Professor, Dept. Of Civil Engineering, L.D.R.P Institute of Technology Research, Gujarat, India
---------------------------------------------------------------------***---------------------------------------------------------------------
Abstract - Most of the construction projects worldwide
involve a variety of complex processesworkingsimultaneously.
It can be quite challenging to manage these processes. A big
part of meeting these challenges is mitigating the RISKS
involved. Risk management include identifying risks,assessing
risks either quantitatively or qualitatively, choosing the
appropriate method for handling risks, and then monitoring
and documenting risks. on- availability of supporting
infrastructure, political issues like instability of the
government leading to regulatory issues, social issues,
marketing forms an important part in these projects as this is
an onetime investment and the purchase cycle is long , long
development period makes the same project be at different
points in the real estate value cycle. This Project focused on
identification of various types of risks involved in the real
estate projects and giving appropriatemanagerialimplication
for the risks identified. Time constraints and projectmanagers
with sufficient experience are critical when identifying the
appropriate level of risk for large and/or complex projects.
Key Words: Risk, Estate Projects, Economy, Assessment,
Identification.
1. INTRODUCTION
The real estate sector plays a leading role in the
development and progress of any economy and is often
considered as the prominent indicator of the economic
health of any country. A risk can be defined as exposure to
the possibility of economic and financial loss or gain, injury
or physical damage, or delay as a consequence of the
uncertainties associated with pursuing a particularcourseof
action. Risk can also be defined as an array of all the
uncertain factors which will have a combined negativeeffect
on the objectives of the project. Real estate is cyclical, more
than most industries. Real estate developers are often faced
with considerable changes in their environment and new
challenges driven by the macro-economic, social, urban-
planning, political-legal, regulatory, environmental and
technological framework conditions. Economic growth and
population growth are perceived to create demand for real
estate product in all categories.
1.1 Need of Study
• Economic growth and population growth are
perceived to create demand for real estate product
in all categories.
• As a result, developers try to fulfill the demand and
attract the cash flows from investment and lease
rentals.
• Consequently equilibrium between demand and
supply is created due to reduction in supply over a
time period. However, over a period of time the
demand starts rising slowly, and as the industry
playersare slow to respond to the new demandand
demand exceeds supply.
• Since the high profitability of real estate, in recent
years, a large number of enterprises invest the
money into real estate industry with an attempt to
obtain great achievements; however, during the
process of investment of high-profit industries, the
avails also equal to high risks.
• The need behind this study is to identify the various
major risks and their dependent risks that affect
real estate projects.
1.2 Objective
• To identify various risks affecting real estate
projects.
• To rank risks, based on the severity of risk affecting
real estate projects.
• To give managerial implication for the risk
identified.
2. Literature review
A. The importance assessing of property
development risk factors:
Property development makes a significant contribution to
the Australian property industry and economy. However,
property development is inherently risky, with a number of
risksevident throughout the property developmentprocess.
From a survey of leading property developers in Australia,
the importance of 34 property development risk factors is
assessed. The most important property development risk
factors identified were environmental risk, time delay risk
and land cost risk. After reviewing the availableliteratureon
property development risk (see previous section), 34
property development risk factors were identified
Parth Jayswal1, Umang Patel2
International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056
Volume: 05 Issue: 03 | Mar-2018 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072
© 2018, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 6.171 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 1461
throughout the chronological stages in the property
development process.
B. A New Approach to Real Estate Risk:
Traditionally relegated to the back of the busbyinstitutional
investors, private equity real estate has recently been
afforded larger allocations in recent years on the brute
strength of its performance, rather than any theoretical
justification arising out of new methodology or data. While
real estate is a known diversifier, the true extent to which it
increases a portfolio s risk adjusted return is difficult to
quantify. The purpose of this paper is to presentamodelthat
bridges the methodology divide between real estate risk
assessment methods, and those used in securities markets.
Using this approach, it is possible to assess the risk of
specific properties and measure theexpectedcontributionof
such properties to the enterprise-wide risk of typical
institutional portfolios.
C. Integrating Sustainability Issues into Property
Risk Assessment – An Approach to Communicate
the Benefits of Sustainable Buildings:
Although the green building community has created a
number of processes and tools to assess the design and
performance of green buildings, this hashad an insignificant
impact on the financial appraisal of green buildings and the
property markets. However, new property rating systems
are emerging as a means of creating risk profiles of property
assets. These rating systemsare intendedforusewithinboth
property financing processes as a consequence of new,
international banking capital adequacy rules (Basel II) as
well as within property investment analyses. The inclusion
of sustainability issues into property rating systems allows
the advantages of sustainable buildings to be displayed as
well as the disadvantages of sustainability to be treated as
additional risk factors.
D. Measuring Risk for Private Property Funds:
The objective of this thesis is to expand on previous studies
by various industry organizations and expertsonthetopicof
measuring risk of private property funds. The analysis
should contribute to ABP s portfolio risk management by
providing a methodology to better evaluate single private
property fund investmentsaswell astherealestateportfolio
as a whole. The study should add an academic perspectiveto
this relatively young investment product area and provide
further research opportunities for the academic society.
Although not the key objective of this study, improved
analysis of the risk and return of real estate in general and
that of private property funds in particular, could result in
changing perspectives on the appropriate percentage of an
investment portfolio to be allocated to real estate.
The major Risks identified that affects real estate projects
are as follows.
• Political Risks
• Regulation, social & legal Risks
• Construction Risks
• Financial Risks
• Force majeure
• Commercial Risks
• Economical Risks
Table -1: Risk Factors:
Very Severe Risk 5
Severe Risk 4
High Risk 3
Medium Risk 2
Low Risk 1
Table 2 Linguistic terms and the corresponding triangular
fuzzy numbers
According to the corresponding triangular fuzzynumbersof
these linguistic terms, for example if the decision maker
states Criterion C is Weakly )mportant thanCriterion
C , then it takes the fuzzy triangular scale as , , . On
the contrary, in the pair wise contribution matrices of the
criteria, comparison of C2 to C1 will take the fuzzytriangular
scale as (1/4, 1/3, 1/2).The pair wise contribution matrices
is shown in Eq.1, where indicates the decision
maker s preference of criterion over h criterion, via
fuzzy triangular numbers. (ere, tilde represents the
triangular number demonstration and for the example case,
represents the first decision maker s preference of first
criterion over second criterion, and equals to = (2, 3, 4).
=
International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056
Volume: 05 Issue: 03 | Mar-2018 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072
© 2018, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 6.171 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 1462
3. CONCLUSIONS
• Various major risk factors and their dependent risk
factors were identified that affects real estate
projects.
• Many enterprise enters blindly in real estate
project, without considering the risks and their
impacts on project. The outcomes from this study
enables the real estate developersto systematically
develop a holistic risk management approach to
handle risks of real estate projects.
• Managerial implications suggested can help real
estate developer to reduce the risk of failureoftheir
projects
REFERENCES:
[1] GRAEME NEWELL and MARK STEGLICK University of
Western Sydney(2003)
[2] Richard Gold, Grosvenor Americas,Ken Baldwin(2005)
[3] Prof. Dr.-Ing. Habil, Thomas LĂĽtzkendorf, Dipl.
Bw(2006)
[4] www.wikipedia.org
[5] www.google.com

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Risk identification and assessment in real estate projects

  • 1. International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056 Volume: 05 Issue: 03 | Mar-2018 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072 © 2018, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 6.171 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 1460 A case Study on Risk Identification and Risk Assessment in Real Estate Projects 1M.E Student , Dept. Of (Civil Infrastructure) Engineering, L.D.R.P Institute of Technology Research, Gujarat, India 2Assistant Professor, Dept. Of Civil Engineering, L.D.R.P Institute of Technology Research, Gujarat, India ---------------------------------------------------------------------***--------------------------------------------------------------------- Abstract - Most of the construction projects worldwide involve a variety of complex processesworkingsimultaneously. It can be quite challenging to manage these processes. A big part of meeting these challenges is mitigating the RISKS involved. Risk management include identifying risks,assessing risks either quantitatively or qualitatively, choosing the appropriate method for handling risks, and then monitoring and documenting risks. on- availability of supporting infrastructure, political issues like instability of the government leading to regulatory issues, social issues, marketing forms an important part in these projects as this is an onetime investment and the purchase cycle is long , long development period makes the same project be at different points in the real estate value cycle. This Project focused on identification of various types of risks involved in the real estate projects and giving appropriatemanagerialimplication for the risks identified. Time constraints and projectmanagers with sufficient experience are critical when identifying the appropriate level of risk for large and/or complex projects. Key Words: Risk, Estate Projects, Economy, Assessment, Identification. 1. INTRODUCTION The real estate sector plays a leading role in the development and progress of any economy and is often considered as the prominent indicator of the economic health of any country. A risk can be defined as exposure to the possibility of economic and financial loss or gain, injury or physical damage, or delay as a consequence of the uncertainties associated with pursuing a particularcourseof action. Risk can also be defined as an array of all the uncertain factors which will have a combined negativeeffect on the objectives of the project. Real estate is cyclical, more than most industries. Real estate developers are often faced with considerable changes in their environment and new challenges driven by the macro-economic, social, urban- planning, political-legal, regulatory, environmental and technological framework conditions. Economic growth and population growth are perceived to create demand for real estate product in all categories. 1.1 Need of Study • Economic growth and population growth are perceived to create demand for real estate product in all categories. • As a result, developers try to fulfill the demand and attract the cash flows from investment and lease rentals. • Consequently equilibrium between demand and supply is created due to reduction in supply over a time period. However, over a period of time the demand starts rising slowly, and as the industry playersare slow to respond to the new demandand demand exceeds supply. • Since the high profitability of real estate, in recent years, a large number of enterprises invest the money into real estate industry with an attempt to obtain great achievements; however, during the process of investment of high-profit industries, the avails also equal to high risks. • The need behind this study is to identify the various major risks and their dependent risks that affect real estate projects. 1.2 Objective • To identify various risks affecting real estate projects. • To rank risks, based on the severity of risk affecting real estate projects. • To give managerial implication for the risk identified. 2. Literature review A. The importance assessing of property development risk factors: Property development makes a significant contribution to the Australian property industry and economy. However, property development is inherently risky, with a number of risksevident throughout the property developmentprocess. From a survey of leading property developers in Australia, the importance of 34 property development risk factors is assessed. The most important property development risk factors identified were environmental risk, time delay risk and land cost risk. After reviewing the availableliteratureon property development risk (see previous section), 34 property development risk factors were identified Parth Jayswal1, Umang Patel2
  • 2. International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056 Volume: 05 Issue: 03 | Mar-2018 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072 © 2018, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 6.171 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 1461 throughout the chronological stages in the property development process. B. A New Approach to Real Estate Risk: Traditionally relegated to the back of the busbyinstitutional investors, private equity real estate has recently been afforded larger allocations in recent years on the brute strength of its performance, rather than any theoretical justification arising out of new methodology or data. While real estate is a known diversifier, the true extent to which it increases a portfolio s risk adjusted return is difficult to quantify. The purpose of this paper is to presentamodelthat bridges the methodology divide between real estate risk assessment methods, and those used in securities markets. Using this approach, it is possible to assess the risk of specific properties and measure theexpectedcontributionof such properties to the enterprise-wide risk of typical institutional portfolios. C. Integrating Sustainability Issues into Property Risk Assessment – An Approach to Communicate the Benefits of Sustainable Buildings: Although the green building community has created a number of processes and tools to assess the design and performance of green buildings, this hashad an insignificant impact on the financial appraisal of green buildings and the property markets. However, new property rating systems are emerging as a means of creating risk profiles of property assets. These rating systemsare intendedforusewithinboth property financing processes as a consequence of new, international banking capital adequacy rules (Basel II) as well as within property investment analyses. The inclusion of sustainability issues into property rating systems allows the advantages of sustainable buildings to be displayed as well as the disadvantages of sustainability to be treated as additional risk factors. D. Measuring Risk for Private Property Funds: The objective of this thesis is to expand on previous studies by various industry organizations and expertsonthetopicof measuring risk of private property funds. The analysis should contribute to ABP s portfolio risk management by providing a methodology to better evaluate single private property fund investmentsaswell astherealestateportfolio as a whole. The study should add an academic perspectiveto this relatively young investment product area and provide further research opportunities for the academic society. Although not the key objective of this study, improved analysis of the risk and return of real estate in general and that of private property funds in particular, could result in changing perspectives on the appropriate percentage of an investment portfolio to be allocated to real estate. The major Risks identified that affects real estate projects are as follows. • Political Risks • Regulation, social & legal Risks • Construction Risks • Financial Risks • Force majeure • Commercial Risks • Economical Risks Table -1: Risk Factors: Very Severe Risk 5 Severe Risk 4 High Risk 3 Medium Risk 2 Low Risk 1 Table 2 Linguistic terms and the corresponding triangular fuzzy numbers According to the corresponding triangular fuzzynumbersof these linguistic terms, for example if the decision maker states Criterion C is Weakly )mportant thanCriterion C , then it takes the fuzzy triangular scale as , , . On the contrary, in the pair wise contribution matrices of the criteria, comparison of C2 to C1 will take the fuzzytriangular scale as (1/4, 1/3, 1/2).The pair wise contribution matrices is shown in Eq.1, where indicates the decision maker s preference of criterion over h criterion, via fuzzy triangular numbers. (ere, tilde represents the triangular number demonstration and for the example case, represents the first decision maker s preference of first criterion over second criterion, and equals to = (2, 3, 4). =
  • 3. International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET) e-ISSN: 2395-0056 Volume: 05 Issue: 03 | Mar-2018 www.irjet.net p-ISSN: 2395-0072 © 2018, IRJET | Impact Factor value: 6.171 | ISO 9001:2008 Certified Journal | Page 1462 3. CONCLUSIONS • Various major risk factors and their dependent risk factors were identified that affects real estate projects. • Many enterprise enters blindly in real estate project, without considering the risks and their impacts on project. The outcomes from this study enables the real estate developersto systematically develop a holistic risk management approach to handle risks of real estate projects. • Managerial implications suggested can help real estate developer to reduce the risk of failureoftheir projects REFERENCES: [1] GRAEME NEWELL and MARK STEGLICK University of Western Sydney(2003) [2] Richard Gold, Grosvenor Americas,Ken Baldwin(2005) [3] Prof. Dr.-Ing. Habil, Thomas LĂĽtzkendorf, Dipl. Bw(2006) [4] www.wikipedia.org [5] www.google.com