Senior Research Fellow Alex De Pinto's presentation at IUCN side event at COP23 (November 2017) Land and forest degradation is a global problem and must be addressed globally.

1. The agriculture-forest interface
is the key to achieving global
restoration goals
With RICHARD D. ROBERTSON, SALOME BEGELADZE, CHETAN KUMAR, HO YOUNG KWON,
TIMOTHY S. THOMAS, NICOLA CENACCHI, JAWOO KOO
COP 23
Bonn, 14 November 2017
Alex De Pinto
Senior Research Fellow
International Food Policy Research Institute

2. Degradation is a global problem and must be
addressed globally
• Many impacts on the environment, risks to people particularly in rural
and poor countries and posing a substantial challenge to meeting
global food needs.
• Estimated global cost of land degradation due to land-use change and
to the use of land-degrading management practices: US$300 billion
annually (Nkonya, Mirzabaev, and von Braun 2016).
• If the current pace of land degradation were to continue over the next
20 years, global food production reduction by as much as 12% and
increase the price of some commodities by as much as 30% (IFPRI,
2012).

3. Decadal history of advocating in favor of
halting land and forest degradation
• From the United Nation Convention to Combat Desertification (1994) to the
Bonn Challenge and the New York Declaration on Forests (2011 and 2014).
• However, significant forces have impeded the progress in land and forest
restoration even though actions that transform degraded lands into
functional landscapes are less costly than no action. Literature that explains
reasons for low uptake abounds.
• Our focus: concerns about food security. Often perceived as conflicting
goals. What is the role of agriculture and crop production?
• The forest landscape restoration approach (FLR) provides a framework to
implement sustainable forest management creating a substantial role for
agriculture.

4. What would be the effect of adoption of
restoration practices on cropland?
• A combination of several datasets and modeling
outputs:
• Assessment of global land degradation by Bao, Nkonya, and
Mirzabaev (2016);
• Spatial Production Allocation Model (SPAM; You et al. 2006);
• Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT;
Jones et al. 2003); and
• International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural
Commodities and Trade (IMPACT vers. 3.3; Robinson et al. 2015).

5. Global changes
in production
and prices.
People at risk of hunger
Spatial Production
Allocation Model
(SPAM)
Decision Support System
Agrotechnology Transfer
(DSSAT)
Bao et al. 2016
International Model for Policy
Analysis of Agricultural
Commodities and Trade
(IMPACT)
Location of Degradation
Crops grown
in degraded areas
Current yields and
yields with
conservation
practices

6. Crops and practices
• 42% of the harvested area present in degraded land is covered by maize, wheat,
and rice.
• Agricultural practices suitable for these three crops and with potential to be
adopted widely:
–no tillage,
–integrated soil fertility management, and
–nitrogen-use efficiency
These practices are known to restore soil fertility and lead to sustainable
production under changing climate regimes and are therefore good complements
to the forest landscape restoration approach.

7. Three scenarios: 2010 – 2030
Restoration goal of the Bonn challenge (move 350 million hectares of
degraded and deforested land into restoration by 2030) is our
benchmark.
• Business-as-usual scenario: retains current agricultural practices and
technologies;
• Lower-bound scenario: minimum involvement of cropland in FLR and
adoption of alternative practices;
• Upper-bound scenario: maximum involvement and returns from
cropland in FLR and adoption of alternative practices;

8. Results: Lower-bound scenario
• Production projected to increases: 3% for maize, 5% for rice, and 2% for wheat
greater than BAU scenario.
• Commodity prices are projected to increase less than the BAU scenario: 5% less
for maize, 18–19% less for rice, and 6–7% less for wheat.
• The compounded effect of higher production and lower prices increases the
availability and accessibility of these food staples: reduction in the number of
undernourished children ~3,000,000, reduction in the population at risk of
hunger 70,000,000–77,000,000 people.
• Harvested area projected to decrease by 0.8 % for wheat and 2.5% percent for
rice. Maize is projected to increase by ~ 0.3% (increase demand for animal feed).
• SOC concentration grows by ~ 0.4 Mg ha-1 yr-1, GHG emissions reduced by 0.3 Mg
CO2 e ha-1 yr-1.

9. Results: Upper-bound scenario
• Production projected to increases: 6% for maize, 10% for rice, and 3-4% for wheat
greater than BAU scenario.
• Commodity prices are projected to increase less than the BAU scenario: 9-12%
less for maize, 31–34% less for rice, and 11–14% less for wheat.
• Reduction in the number of undernourished children ~6,000,000, reduction in
the population at risk of hunger 134,000,000–151,000,000 people.
• Harvested area projected to decrease by 1.5 % for wheat and 5% percent for
rice. Maize is projected to increase by ~ 0.5 – 0.9%.
• SOC concentration grows by ~ 0.4 Mg ha-1 yr-1, GHG emissions reduced by 0.2 Mg
CO2 e ha-1 yr-1.

10. Key messages
• Achieving the restoration targets set by the Bonn Challenge using the
forest landscape restoration approach can generate significant
multiple benefits from a reduction in malnourished children to a
reduced pressure for expansion of cropland to increased SOM to a
reduction in GHG emissions.
• Hence, countries can and should invest in wide-scale restoration
projects without fear of jeopardizing food security goals.
• The agriculture-forest interface is the key to achieving global
restoration goals. The benefits to farmers and to the broader
population suggest that the inclusion of cropland in restoration efforts
can facilitate the implementation of restoration plans on large
amounts of land.

11. Key messages
• Sufficient resources must be invested in studying the systems that
work best given local specific geophysical, climate, and socioeconomic
conditions and in developing the models that can facilitate long-term
planning required for the correct management of landscape
restoration approaches.
• Policy makers must invest in well-functioning extension services so
farmers can make full use of restorative agronomic practices and
agroforestry and silvopastoral systems.
• Need for transparent and equitable policies that create an unbiassed
competition between the use of chemical inputs and alternative
solutions to increasing land productivity.

12. Thank you
questions: a.dipinto@cgiar.org