http://www.fao.org/asiapacific/events/detail-events/en/c/1440/

1. CAN AGRICULTURAL BIOTECHNOLOGIES
ADDRESS THE CHALLENGES OF
CLIMATE CHANGE?
Lim Li Lin
Third World Network
FAO Regional Meeting on Agricultural Biotechnologies in
Sustainable Food Systems and Nutrition in Asia-Pacific
Kuala Lumpur, 11-13 September 2017

2. • Impact of climate change on agriculture: need for
adaptation
• Impact of agriculture on climate change: need for
mitigation
• Can agriculture biotechnologies address the
challenges of climate change?
• Case study: drought tolerance
• Conclusions
Overview

3. Percentageofyieldprojections
(b)
0to–5%
–5to–10%
–10to–25%
–25to–50%
–50to–100%
0to5%
5to10%
10to25%
25to50%
50to100%
Rangeof yieldchange
0
20
40
60
80
100
increase
inyield
decrease
inyield
2010–2029 2030–2049 2050–2069 2070–2089 2090–2109
gure SPM.9 | (a) Projected global redistribution of maximumcatch potential of ~1000 exploited marinefish and invertebratespecies. Projections
omparethe10-year averages2001–2010and2051–2060 usingoceanconditionsbasedonasingleclimatemodel under amoderatetohighwarming
enario,without analysisofpotential impactsofoverfishingoroceanacidification.(b)Summaryofprojectedchangesincropyields(mostlywheat,maize,
ceandsoy),duetoclimatechangeoverthe21st century.Dataforeachtimeframesumto100%,indicatingthepercentageof projectionsshowingyield
creasesversusdecreases.Thefigureincludesprojections(basedon1090datapoints)fordifferent emissionscenarios,fortropical andtemperateregions
• I
IPPC AR5 (2014): Summary of projected changes in crop yields (mostly wheat,
maize, rice and soy), due to climate change over the 21st century. Changes in
crop yields are relative to late 20th century levels.

4. Agriculture and climate change
• Impact of climate change on agriculture

5. Impact of climate change on agriculture
• Increasingly variable rainfall, increasing temperatures,
increase in pests due to warming etc.
• Global yields of maize reduced by 3.8%, wheat 5.5% since 1980
Serious threat to:
• crops, livestock, fisheries
• global, national, local food security & sovereignty
• lives and livelihoods of smallholder and landless farmers
 Adapting agriculture to climate change urgent and
important especially in developing countries

6. Who are the most vulnerable?
• Poorest countries and populations will suffer
earlier and most, even though contributed least to
the causes of climate change
• Crop production affected negatively, especially in
subsistence sectors
• Smallholder and subsistence farmers, pastoralists
and artisanal fisherfolk will suffer complex,
localized impacts of climate change

7. Impact of agriculture on climate change
• Emissions from the agriculture sector amount to 10-12% of total
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
• (17-32% if including indirect contributions)
• Cattle and rice production -> methane
• Synthetic nitrogen fertilisers and fertilised soils -> nitrous oxide
Industrial agriculture production methods
• Production of synthetic fertilisers -> 1% of total GHG emissions
Rich country consumption patterns
• Concentrated lagoons of animal manure emit substantially more
methane than from free-ranging animals
• Much greater consumption of meat products by the rich, especially
beef
Mitigating (reducing) emissions from developed country and industrial
agriculture urgent and important

8. THE CRISIS OF INDUSTRIAL AGRICULTURE

9. Can agriculture biotechnologies address
the challenges of climate change?
• Need to assess the various agriculture biotechnologies for
their possible contribution based on criteria e.g.
• Feasibility
• Affordability
• Safety
• Sustainability
• Case study: comparison of drought tolerance
• Genetic engineering technology
• Marker assisted selection breeding
• Ecological agriculture/agroecology

10. Drought tolerance: Genetic engineering
• The only genetically engineered drought-tolerant maize
on the market - Monsanto’s MON 87460
• Monsanto (2009): “On average, under water-limited
conditions, MON 87460 hybrids are expected to provide a
6% or greater yield advantage compared to commercial
hybrids”
• (NB: Yield advantage is noted as reduced yield loss, as
MON 87460 is still subject to yield loss under water-
limited conditions. This yield advantage will decrease as
water deficit stress becomes too severe and it is noted by
Monsanto that “under severe water deficit, yield can be
reduced to zero”.)

11. Drought tolerance:
Marker assisted selection breeding
Article in Nature journal ‘Cross-bred crops get fit faster’
(2014):
• “The need for tougher crops is especially acute in Africa,
where drought can reduce maize (corn) yields by up to
25%. The Drought Tolerant Maize for Africa project, which
launched in 2006 with US$33 million, has developed 153
new varieties to improve yields in 13 countries. In field
trials, these varieties match or exceed the yields from
commercial seeds under good rainfall conditions, and
yield up to 30% more under drought conditions.”
(http://www.nature.com/news/cross-bred-crops-get-fit-
faster-1.15940)

12. Drought tolerance:
Marker assisted selection breeding
CGIAR News (April 2009):
• “Maize is a highly diverse crop, ensuring ample scope for
genetically enhancing its tolerance to drought through breeding
techniques designed specifically for this purpose. CIMMYT and
IITA work with national partners to adapt and apply such
techniques in Africa. As a result, more than 50 new drought-
tolerant varieties and hybrids have been developed and
released for dissemination by private seed companies, national
agencies and nongovernmental organizations. African farmers
now grow many of those varieties, which yield 20-50% more
than others under drought, on hundreds of thousands of
hectares.”
(http://www.cgiar.org/web-archives/www-cgiar-org-enews-
april2009-story_05-html/)

13. Drought tolerance:
organic/ecological agriculture
Data from a 30-year comparison from the Rodale Institute
(2015) in the US:
• Organic corn yields were 31 percent higher than
conventional yields in years of drought; by way of
comparison, GM drought-tolerant corn (MON 87460) only
outperformed conventional plantings by 6.7% to 13.3%,
far less than the organic.
(Rodale Institute, 2015. The farming systems trial.
http://rodaleinstitute.org/assets/FSTbookletFINAL.pdf)

14. Outcomes of diversified agroecological
systems: productivity & resilience
IPES-Food (2016) From uniformity to diversity: A paradigm shift from industrial agriculture to
diversified agroecological systems

15. The need for a paradigm shift
…to biodiverse, agroecological-based farming

16. IAASTD
• International Assessment of Agricultural
Knowledge, Science & Technology for
Development (2009)
• “Business-as-usual is no longer an option”
• High yields and production with industrial farming,
high external inputs and high energy consumption
• BUT costs to health, environment and social equity
• Radical overhaul of agricultural policy and practice
urgently needed
• Main conclusion: Transition to
organic/ecological/sustainable/resilient agriculture

17. IAASTD: Some key findings
• The future of agriculture lies in biodiverse,
agroecologically based farming that can meet
social, economic and environmental goals
• Reliance on resource-extractive industrial
agriculture is unsustainable, particularly in the face
of worsening climate, energy, water crises
• Short-term technical fixes, including GE crops,
cannot adequately address the complex
challenges facing agriculture, and may often
exacerbate social and environmental harms
• Agroecological approaches, breeding and marker
assisted selection are alternatives, with greater
potential to meet future food needs and fewer
social and environmental costs

18. Call for shift to agroecology
• UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food, Olivier de
Schutter (2011):
• “Today’s scientific evidence demonstrates that
agroecological methods outperform the use of chemical
fertilizers in boosting food production where the hungry
live …”
• “We won’t solve hunger and stop climate change
with industrial farming on large plantations. The
solution lies in supporting small-scale farmers’
knowledge and experimentation, and in raising
incomes of smallholders so as to contribute to rural
development.”

19. Call for shift to agroecology
• UNCTAD Trade and Environment Review (2013):
• Recommends a rapid and significant shift away from
“conventional, monoculture-based… industrial
production” of food that depends heavily on external inputs.
Instead, the goal should be “mosaics of sustainable
regenerative production systems that also considerably
improve the productivity of small-scale farmers and
foster rural development”.
• International Symposium on Agroecology for Nutrition and
Food Security (2014):
• FAO Director-General Jose Graziano da
Silva: ”Agroecology… is an approach that will help to
address the challenge of ending hunger and malnutrition in
all its forms, in the context of the climate change adaptation
needed”

20. Terima kasih!
www.twn.my
www.biosafety-info.net