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Ensuring climate resilience of agro-
ecosystems and sustainable management of
natural resources
Dr. Rachid MRABET
Research...
Setting the Scene: Geostrategic position in
need of environmental sustainability
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000...
Setting the Scene: High food import and
vulnerability in terms of food security
• 83,28 Millions Ha of agricultural
Lands....
Setting the Scene: MENA is faced with a set of
complex interrelated problems
①IPCC report (AR5) converges on
an increase i...
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Kuwait
United Arab Emirates
Saudi Arabia
Tunisia
Jordan
Morocco
Egypt
Algeria
Syria
Yemen
Global...
SDGs in nexus
1
hlight that for development to be sustainable in the 21st
century it must be resilient to
complex ecologic...
Climate-sensitive agriculture:
MAJOR FARMING SYSTEMS OF THE MENA REGION
• Dryland farming is the major component
of global...
MENA specific treats to natural
resources
• Most of food production in MENA Countries is in
rainfed areas, accounting for ...
• 75% of MENA rural areas
partially depend on
livestock for livelihood, with
60% of income derived from
pastoral & agro-pa...
Intensification of cropping systems
MENA cereal yields are at 56% of the world average and at 25% of the yields attained i...
Yield gaps of major food crops across
regions
• A higher water use
efficiency is required
– Improved varieties
– Sustainab...
CREATE
GREATER
RESILIENCE
Lack of
Opportunities
& markets
Resource
scarcity &
limitations
Poverty &
social fragility
Degra...
Mobilizing holistic approach for food security and
sustainable agriculture intensification
in MENA
• Agriculture, food and...
Building a resilience strategy is a priority “no
regret” action
Agricultural resilience pillars
• Desertification control ...
Expanding human knowledge in order to meet human
requirements in MENA
Integrative climate smart and environmentally sustai...
Collaborative Partnership on
Agricultural resilience in MENA
① Commitment from all national and international stakeholders...
Many thanks for your Patience
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Ensuring climate resilience of agro-ecosystems and sustainable management of natural resources

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Dr. Rachid MRABET
Research Director
INRA Rabat

Cop 22 - Session November 16th 2016, Coping with Climate Change in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region Meeting future food demand through SCIENCE & INNOVATION

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Ensuring climate resilience of agro-ecosystems and sustainable management of natural resources

  1. 1. Ensuring climate resilience of agro- ecosystems and sustainable management of natural resources Dr. Rachid MRABET Research Director INRA Rabat Coping with Climate Change in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region MEETING FUTURE FOOD DEMAND THROUGH SCIENCE & INNOVATION November 16, 2016
  2. 2. Setting the Scene: Geostrategic position in need of environmental sustainability 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 Saudi Arabia Iran (Islamic Republic of) United Arab Emirates Egypt Iraq Qatar Algeria Kuwait Morocco Sudan Oman Syrian Arab Republic Tunisia Lebanon Libya Yemen Jordan Bahrain Palestine GDP Million Dollars ① At the crossroads of Europe, Africa and Asia. ② 14 million km2 of which more than 87 per cent is desert. ③471 millions inhabitants (6% of the world's population) – High Youth population (PGR=1.7). ④ 4.5% of the world’s GDP. ⑤ 60% of oil and 45% of natural gas reserves in the world. ⑥ Great potential for the development of Concentrated Solar Power in the world. ⑦ Home to important diverse landraces and wild relatives of major food crops. ⑧ 1.2 percent of the world’s renewable water resources. MENA is the world’s most water-scarce region and Heavy reliance on food import! Wealth levels vary enormously across MENA
  3. 3. Setting the Scene: High food import and vulnerability in terms of food security • 83,28 Millions Ha of agricultural Lands. – Agriculture contributes 12% to the MENA economy; – Limited cultivated lands; – Small farms (less than 5ha) are the backbone. • MENA is the most food import- dependent region in the world, and net food imports are projected to rise even further in the future – MENA countries import at least 50% of the food calories they consume; – Largest cereal importer of the world; – Highly impacted by food price fluctuations; – Heavy reliance on global food markets to meet domestic needs. IFPRI, 2016 MENA is the world’s most water-scarce region and dependent on food import!
  4. 4. Setting the Scene: MENA is faced with a set of complex interrelated problems ①IPCC report (AR5) converges on an increase in time-space rainfall variations (heighten and worsen extreme climate extremes), sudden temperature variations and long period of droughts. ②Water scarcity presents an immediate threat to agricultural development and sustainability in MENA. ③Climate change brings new uncertainties, and adds new risks and changes to already existing risks. 9 Change in mean annual precipitation (1980s to 2080s; IPCC A1B) Under climate change,dry lands will increase significantly in area, and conditions for agriculture in dry lands will decline considerably, especially in regions already affected by poverty and food insecurity. Major decreases of rainfall are expected in MENA and southernAfrican dry lands, Australian,North America. Increasesin rain are expected in the dry lands of East Asia dry lands. This is IPCC scenarioA1B average of 21 GCMs Climate Change in MENA According to IPCC computer modeling, an estimated additional 80 million to 100 million people will be exposed to water stress by 2025, putting more pressure on already depleted groundwater resources.
  5. 5. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Kuwait United Arab Emirates Saudi Arabia Tunisia Jordan Morocco Egypt Algeria Syria Yemen Global Food Security Index (GFSI) Setting the Scene: MENA region is a water & food insecurity hotspot area
  6. 6. SDGs in nexus 1 hlight that for development to be sustainable in the 21st century it must be resilient to complex ecological risks, particularly those from climate change. The MENA region  in this regard, given its status as the world’s most water scarce and food-important region, and with climate change now regarded as a root cause in the resurgence of cial vulnerability, conflicts and migration in recent years. Achieving SDG 13 on tion required a close nexus with other key SDGs on issues such energy, food and ng local countries and communities become resilience to growing risks from climate hese and other development issues. • World’s most water scarce and food- important dependent region • Climate change regarded as a root cause in the resurgence of poverty, social vulnerability, conflicts and migration in recent years.
  7. 7. Climate-sensitive agriculture: MAJOR FARMING SYSTEMS OF THE MENA REGION • Dryland farming is the major component of global crop production • MENA is also pasture-based farming. Agro-ecosystems are in a dynamic state. MENA Agricultural - food systems are fragile and complex
  8. 8. MENA specific treats to natural resources • Most of food production in MENA Countries is in rainfed areas, accounting for 83% of seasonal crops’ area. – Rapid natural resource degradation and desertification – Active drought, erosion and desertification processes in agricultural, pasture and forest lands; – Most of the MENA soils exhibit low to very low soil organic carbon (SOC) content (less than 1%). • Climate change and population growth are jointly stretching the water demand-supply gap at alarming rates. – > 80% of water is allocated to agriculture. – Physical water scarcity & Groundwater depletion. – the lowest level of renewable water resources per capita – the highest proportion of water withdrawals – Available renewable water will be as low as 500 cubic meter by 2050. MENA is characterized by a large surface of irrigated soils, usually in flat areas (31 Mha) but prone to salinization (16 Mha).
  9. 9. • 75% of MENA rural areas partially depend on livestock for livelihood, with 60% of income derived from pastoral & agro-pastoral sytems. – Meat and milk consumption will increase by 104% and 82%, respectively. • Urbanization is devastating good soils and lands (3% growth compared to world average of 2.2%). MENA specific treats to natural resources Arable land per capita will shrink to 0.12 Ha by 2050.
  10. 10. Intensification of cropping systems MENA cereal yields are at 56% of the world average and at 25% of the yields attained in Europe.
  11. 11. Yield gaps of major food crops across regions • A higher water use efficiency is required – Improved varieties – Sustainable and resilient soil management – Supplemental irrigation – Reducing post- harvest losses – etc Licker et al. 2010.
  12. 12. CREATE GREATER RESILIENCE Lack of Opportunities & markets Resource scarcity & limitations Poverty & social fragility Degradation a mining of natural resources Population growth Low resource use efficiency Research, extension & Arbitrary Policies Food and input price Livestock Millennia of experience in managing, optimizing and thriving with water scarcity MENA has run out of suitable land for expansion. The scale of impacts that are expected from climate change is likely to be beyond the coping range of many communities and countries, and will require additional adaptation efforts.
  13. 13. Mobilizing holistic approach for food security and sustainable agriculture intensification in MENA • Agriculture, food and rural development are and will remain a driving force for national and regional economies. • Two main long-term goals for MENA agriculture: • Achieve food security, improve human nutrition, create sustainable food consumption and production systems  healthier population; • Adapt to climate change, build inclusive and effective governance of agricultural and food systems and sustain natural resources  Healthier ecosystems. Goals necessity for constructing more effective bridges between policy, management, and science, as well as between the public and the private sectors.
  14. 14. Building a resilience strategy is a priority “no regret” action Agricultural resilience pillars • Desertification control and conservation and management of natural resources; • Design and construct sustainable and diversified agricultural systems: – Improved and higher-performing crops and livestock; – Increasing the effectiveness of rainfall and improving water management; – Integrated crop-livestock production; – Pest and disease protection and forecasting. • Efficient cycling of nutrients for long term-maintenance of soil fertility and crop productivity and reducing adverse environmental impacts; • Biodiversity improvement, development and management for continuing adaptation and change of agro-ecosystems; • Knowledge convergence and development; • Investment in research and innovation to bridge gaps.
  15. 15. Expanding human knowledge in order to meet human requirements in MENA Integrative climate smart and environmentally sustainable technologies • Enhancing and stabilizing soil resilience – Increasing soil organic carbon pool – Improving soil structure and biological properties – Restoring degraded soils – Strengthening elemental cycling • Adopting eco-efficient agricultural systems – Conservation agriculture • Integrated Nutrient Management • IPM • Disease suppressive soils – Agroforestry and perennial crops – Comprehensive integrated crop-livestock-tree systems • Increasing biodiversity – Soil biodiversity and communities – Plant biodiversity • Improving Net Primary Productivity – Drought and salinity tolerant varieties – Species with deep roots and recalcitrant compounds Expenditure on agricultural research and development (R&D) is typically low across the MENA region
  16. 16. Collaborative Partnership on Agricultural resilience in MENA ① Commitment from all national and international stakeholders in the public, private and civil sectors to support the up-scaling of climate smart and environmentally sustainable technologies (CST) as food security and profitability options; ② Governments are called upon to create a conducive environment for the adoption and development of CST; ③ Governments are called upon to create enabling policy environment to allow investment financing, and technological development including private sector involvement in CST related value chains; ④ Mobilization and involvement of farmers and associations in new promotion and development pathways and foresight processes for advancing CST adoption and appropriation; ⑤ Build-up efficient and quality research and innovation system and provide system thinking forum to further embed CST in development contexts and constraining climate and global changes.
  17. 17. Many thanks for your Patience

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