1.
2014 Global Landscapes Forum
The Role of Knowledge Products and Tools in Achieving More Sustainable
Management of Landscapes for the Post-2015 Development Agenda
Decision Support Tools for Sustainable and Climate
Resilient Agriculture: the case of Brazil
www.agroicone.com.br
IUCN, PROFOR, CIFOR
Rodrigo C A Lima
Leila Harfuch
AGROICONE LTDA
Lima, December 6th , 2014

2.
Setting the Challenges
• Brazilian agricultural sector: 22% of GDP
• Larger exporter of soybeans, broiler, beef, sugar…
• Increasing domestic demand: higher income and population;
• Hability to expand production and increase conservation: zero net deforestation;
• Climate change threatens food, energy, water security and livelihoods:
• Uncertanties and lack of consistent data and analysis about climage change, extreme events
and impacts on agriculture;
• Different regional effects (global and local);
• Simulating Climate Change Scenarios (World Bank, 2012):
• What will happen in the Brazilian land use and agricultural production dynamics considering the
potential risks of climate change?
• What are the impacts on prices and production value?

3.
The Brazilian Land Use Model (BLUM) as a Tool do
Address Climate Change Impacts
• Address climate change impacts on agricultural production, land use, regional dynamics, prices and
production value;
• Simulate five future scenarios in BLUM: baseline, pessimistic (IPCC A2, 2° to 5,4°C), optimistic (IPCC
B2, 1,4°C to 3,8°C), BRAMS without precipitation changes; BRAMS with precipitation changes;
• Climate change scenarios simulated by EMBRAPA and its physical impacts in each activity are inputs
in BLUM (land use restrictions);
• Using an allocation methodology with similar structure as BLUM, downscale BLUM results (six regions)
by state (26 in total) and then by micro-region (558 regions);
• Combining the impacts on agriculture (products simulated) in each municipality for each scenario, we
have the total impact on potential land that can be used for agricultural production in the future:
• Impacts on remaining vegetation suitable for agriculture;
• Impacts on land already in use for agricultural production;

4.
Regional Land Distribution (first crops and pasture)
Baseline 2030 - Total Area 238.7 mm ha
South
12.5%
Southeast
15.6%
Center-
West
Cerrado
25.0%
North
Amazon
24.6%
Northeast
Coast
6.2%
Northeast
Cerrado
16.0%
Pessimistic 2030 - Total Area 228.1 mm ha
South
11.0%
Southeast
16.1%
Center-West
Cerrado
25.7%
North Amazon
25.4%
Northeast
Coast
5.6%
Northeast
Cerrado
16.2%
Optimistic 2030 - Total Area 231.7 mm ha
South
11.6%
Southeast
15.9%
Center-West
Cerrado
25.5%
North Amazon
24.9%
Northeast Coast
6.2%
Northeast
Cerrado
16.0%

5.
Main Conclusions
• Total area suitable for agriculture and pastures will be reduced under climate change
scenarios;
• Land use for crops (except sugarcane) in 2030 might potentially be decreased by 2 to10
million ha compared to 2009;
• Despite land use reduction from 7 up to 23 million ha, part of the land loss might be
accommodated by pastureland intensification and regional production re-allocation;
• Suitable land will be reduced mainly in the South (up to 5 million ha), Northeast Coast and
Northeast Cerrado (Mapitoba) regions;
• Strong livestock intensification: from 7 to 9 million ha will be displaced;

6.
Main Conclusions
• Production reallocated to regions with less impacts on suitability: regional vs local impacts;
• Higher meat prices, due to intensification process and also crop prices increase.
• Production increase might occur only combined with pasture intensification: higher beef
prices (12% to 32% in 2030);
• Since there is regional re-allocation of production combined to production loss, climate
change can increase poverty and food insecurity in the most affected regions, especially the
Northeast Coast.
• Additional investments needed for cattle raising intensification around US$ 25 to 40 billion
until 2030: public incentives; higher adoption of “land-saving” productive systems.

7.
Key Reflections
1. What sort of knowledge products and tools are really useful?
2. How can we improve the adoption of such tools?
3. What could be their role in contributing to the achievement of the post-2105 agenda goals?
• Land Use planning is a key figure of how countries will be able to manage climate change impacts and adaptation
needs: fostering mitigation potential while addressing food security and conservations needs;
• Tools must be developed and consistently improved aiming to address regional and local impacts and to support
strategic planning and policies;
• New phase of BLUM trying to measure impacts under an Adaptation Strategy for the Brazilian government;
• Brazil´s role in the new UNFCCC Protocol/Agreement and on the SDG Agenda and how land use and agriculture
will be tackled: adaptation and mitigation approach + REDD plus;
• Priority areas for production and priority areas for conservation: policies and projects on the ground;
• Suitable Pastures as a key driver: policies to promote pasture restoration; livestock intensification, pastures to
crops and pasture to protected areas.

8.
Questions?
rodrigo@agroicone.com.br
www.agroicone.com.br