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2014 Global Landscapes Forum 
The Role of Knowledge Products and Tools in Achieving More Sustainable 
Management of Landsc...
Setting the Challenges 
• Brazilian agricultural sector: 22% of GDP 
• Larger exporter of soybeans, broiler, beef, sugar… ...
The Brazilian Land Use Model (BLUM) as a Tool do 
Address Climate Change Impacts 
• Address climate change impacts on agri...
Regional Land Distribution (first crops and pasture) 
Baseline 2030 - Total Area 238.7 mm ha 
South 
12.5% 
Southeast 
15....
Main Conclusions 
• Total area suitable for agriculture and pastures will be reduced under climate change 
scenarios; 
• L...
Main Conclusions 
• Production reallocated to regions with less impacts on suitability: regional vs local impacts; 
• High...
Key Reflections 
1. What sort of knowledge products and tools are really useful? 
2. How can we improve the adoption of su...
Questions? 
rodrigo@agroicone.com.br 
www.agroicone.com.br
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Decision Support Tools for Sustainable and Climate Resilient Agriculture: the case of Brazil

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This presentation by Rodrigo Lima was given at a session titled "Knowledge products and tools for sustainable landscape management in a post-2015 development agenda" at the Global Landscapes Forum in Lima, Peru, on December 6, 2014.

The forum discussed the role of knowledge products and tools and how they are used by relevant stakeholders in achieving a more sustainable management of forests and forest resources at the landscape scale and within the framework of the post-2015 agenda.

Published in: Environment
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Decision Support Tools for Sustainable and Climate Resilient Agriculture: the case of Brazil

  1. 1. 2014 Global Landscapes Forum The Role of Knowledge Products and Tools in Achieving More Sustainable Management of Landscapes for the Post-2015 Development Agenda Decision Support Tools for Sustainable and Climate Resilient Agriculture: the case of Brazil www.agroicone.com.br IUCN, PROFOR, CIFOR Rodrigo C A Lima Leila Harfuch AGROICONE LTDA Lima, December 6th , 2014
  2. 2. Setting the Challenges • Brazilian agricultural sector: 22% of GDP • Larger exporter of soybeans, broiler, beef, sugar… • Increasing domestic demand: higher income and population; • Hability to expand production and increase conservation: zero net deforestation; • Climate change threatens food, energy, water security and livelihoods: • Uncertanties and lack of consistent data and analysis about climage change, extreme events and impacts on agriculture; • Different regional effects (global and local); • Simulating Climate Change Scenarios (World Bank, 2012): • What will happen in the Brazilian land use and agricultural production dynamics considering the potential risks of climate change? • What are the impacts on prices and production value?
  3. 3. The Brazilian Land Use Model (BLUM) as a Tool do Address Climate Change Impacts • Address climate change impacts on agricultural production, land use, regional dynamics, prices and production value; • Simulate five future scenarios in BLUM: baseline, pessimistic (IPCC A2, 2° to 5,4°C), optimistic (IPCC B2, 1,4°C to 3,8°C), BRAMS without precipitation changes; BRAMS with precipitation changes; • Climate change scenarios simulated by EMBRAPA and its physical impacts in each activity are inputs in BLUM (land use restrictions); • Using an allocation methodology with similar structure as BLUM, downscale BLUM results (six regions) by state (26 in total) and then by micro-region (558 regions); • Combining the impacts on agriculture (products simulated) in each municipality for each scenario, we have the total impact on potential land that can be used for agricultural production in the future: • Impacts on remaining vegetation suitable for agriculture; • Impacts on land already in use for agricultural production;
  4. 4. Regional Land Distribution (first crops and pasture) Baseline 2030 - Total Area 238.7 mm ha South 12.5% Southeast 15.6% Center- West Cerrado 25.0% North Amazon 24.6% Northeast Coast 6.2% Northeast Cerrado 16.0% Pessimistic 2030 - Total Area 228.1 mm ha South 11.0% Southeast 16.1% Center-West Cerrado 25.7% North Amazon 25.4% Northeast Coast 5.6% Northeast Cerrado 16.2% Optimistic 2030 - Total Area 231.7 mm ha South 11.6% Southeast 15.9% Center-West Cerrado 25.5% North Amazon 24.9% Northeast Coast 6.2% Northeast Cerrado 16.0%
  5. 5. Main Conclusions • Total area suitable for agriculture and pastures will be reduced under climate change scenarios; • Land use for crops (except sugarcane) in 2030 might potentially be decreased by 2 to10 million ha compared to 2009; • Despite land use reduction from 7 up to 23 million ha, part of the land loss might be accommodated by pastureland intensification and regional production re-allocation; • Suitable land will be reduced mainly in the South (up to 5 million ha), Northeast Coast and Northeast Cerrado (Mapitoba) regions; • Strong livestock intensification: from 7 to 9 million ha will be displaced;
  6. 6. Main Conclusions • Production reallocated to regions with less impacts on suitability: regional vs local impacts; • Higher meat prices, due to intensification process and also crop prices increase. • Production increase might occur only combined with pasture intensification: higher beef prices (12% to 32% in 2030); • Since there is regional re-allocation of production combined to production loss, climate change can increase poverty and food insecurity in the most affected regions, especially the Northeast Coast. • Additional investments needed for cattle raising intensification around US$ 25 to 40 billion until 2030: public incentives; higher adoption of “land-saving” productive systems.
  7. 7. Key Reflections 1. What sort of knowledge products and tools are really useful? 2. How can we improve the adoption of such tools? 3. What could be their role in contributing to the achievement of the post-2105 agenda goals? • Land Use planning is a key figure of how countries will be able to manage climate change impacts and adaptation needs: fostering mitigation potential while addressing food security and conservations needs; • Tools must be developed and consistently improved aiming to address regional and local impacts and to support strategic planning and policies; • New phase of BLUM trying to measure impacts under an Adaptation Strategy for the Brazilian government; • Brazil´s role in the new UNFCCC Protocol/Agreement and on the SDG Agenda and how land use and agriculture will be tackled: adaptation and mitigation approach + REDD plus; • Priority areas for production and priority areas for conservation: policies and projects on the ground; • Suitable Pastures as a key driver: policies to promote pasture restoration; livestock intensification, pastures to crops and pasture to protected areas.
  8. 8. Questions? rodrigo@agroicone.com.br www.agroicone.com.br

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