Hybridoma Technology ( Production , Purification , and Application )
Feeding the World: Sustainable Agriculture & Innovation in the 21st Century
1. Feeding the World: Sustainable Agriculture &
Innovation in the 21st Century
How to Achieve Food Security in a
World of Growing Scarcity:
Role of Technology Development
Strategies
Claudia Ringler, International
Food Policy Research Institute
Rio + 20 Official Side Event
RioCentro, June 16, 2012
2. The State of Food Security
One billion food
insecure
Rising/fluctuating food
prices
Scarcity of land and
water
Competition from
bioenergy
Climate change
3. Drivers of Agricultural Growth and
Food Security
Demand drivers
Population growth: 9 billion people in 2050
Urbanization: 2010 = 52% urban; 2050 = 78%
urban
Income growth
Biofuels and bioenergy
• GHG mitigation and carbon sequestration
• Conservation and biodiversity
4. -10
100
0
20
40
50
60
70
80
90
10
30
1975-80
1980-85
1985-90
World
1990-95
Europe
1995-00
2000-05
2005-10
2010-15
2015-20
Least developed Region
2020-25
2025-30
2030-35
2035-40
2040-45
2045-50
by region
2050-55
2055-60
2060-65
2065-70
North America
2070-75
2075-80
2080-85
Less developed Region
2085-90
2090-95
Source: UN (2011)
Number of people added annually,
2095-00
5. Drivers of Agricultural Growth and
Food Security
Supply drivers
Water and land scarcity
Climate change
Investment in agricultural research
Science and technology policy
Management and governance reform
6. Impact of Climate Change in 2050
Rainfed maize (MIROC/A1B)
Overall production change in shown
existing areas: -11.2%
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations (Nelson et al. 2010)
7. Major Consequences
Rapid growth in meat consumption and
demand for grains for feed
Half of growth in grain demand will be for
livestock
Significant water/land use for energy production
Intense pressure on land and water
Decreasing crop productivity
Increase in prices for cereals and meats
Impact on caloric availability
Impact on food security for those who spend a
large share of their income on food
8. Large number of international land deals,
chiefly focused on biofuels & agriculture
Source: http://landportal.info/landmatrix
9. Projected increase in per capita
meat consumption
2000 2000-2050
Latin Am /
Carib 58 19
N Am /
Europe 83 4
East + South
Asia / Pacific
28 24
Subsaharan
Africa 11 13
Central and
W Asia / 20 11
N Africa
0 20 40 60 80 100
kg/person per year
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Simulations
10. Productivity Issues: R&D
Growth rate of yields has been slowing in response to
a slowdown of agriculture R&D spending
11. Agricultural Technologies
Potential to improve:
Agricultural production &
consumption
Food security
Trade
Environmental quality
Stalled by:
Polarized debate on high
intensity vs. low input
Lack of understanding of
the impacts of specific
technologies at a
disaggregated level
12. Technology Assessment Scope
Global & Regional • Zero Tillage
Nine Technologies • Integrated Soil Fertility
Management
Three Crops • Irrigation Technologies
• Wheat • Water Harvesting
• Rice • Drought Tolerance
• Heat tolerance
• Maize
• Nitrogen Use Efficiency
• Precision Agriculture
• Laser Land Leveling
• Organic Agriculture
23. Management Scenarios
Baseline
• Site-specific baseline inorganic fertilizer application rate
• For maize, location-specific yield discount factor due to
unmanaged pest damage where Bt maize is not adopted
• Furrow irrigation, where irrigation is adopted
• Sub-optimal planting density & sub-optimal planting window
• Conventional tillage
• Representative varieties for latitude x altitude zones
Technology scenarios
• Specific representation of each technology
• Area of adoption in 2050 depends on technology
Climate change scenario in 2050
• MIROC A1B (without CO2 fertilization)
24. Measure of Technology Yield Impact (%) in
2050
For a given country,
If technology is new (i.e. not adopted in 2000)
𝑌𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑 𝑊𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑇𝑒𝑐ℎ,2050 − 𝑌𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑 𝑊𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑇𝑒𝑐ℎ,2050
𝑌𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑 𝐼𝑚𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑡 % = × 100
𝑌𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑 𝑊𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑇𝑒𝑐ℎ,2000
If technology already adopted in 2000 (=baseline)
𝑌𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑 𝑊𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑇𝑒𝑐ℎ,2050
𝑌𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑 𝐼𝑚𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑡 % = × 100
𝑌𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑 𝑊𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑇𝑒𝑐ℎ,2000
– Bt maize: Brazil, USA, Argentina, China, India
– No-till: Argentina, Paraguay, Brazil, Australia, Uruguay, New
Zealand
25. Yield change (%), Global effect in 2050 (MIROC A1B)
(-28.8)
(-18.9)
(-13.5)
Numbers in brackets indicate water savings; assumption was that water demands can be fully met
Source: IFPRI crop model results 2012
26. Yield change (%), Global effect in 2050 (MIROC A1B)
Source: IFPRI crop model results 2012
30. Linking DSSAT & IMPACT
DSSAT IMPACT
Technology strategy
(combination of Food demand
different practices) and supply
Effects on
Global prices
Corresponding and trade
geographically Food security
differentiated yield and
effects malnutrition
31. Percent Change in World Prices of
Maize between 2010 and 2050
Source: IFPRI IMPACT results 2012
32. Percent Change in World Prices of
Rice between 2000 and 2050
Source: IFPRI IMPACT results 2012
33. Percent Change in World Prices of
Wheat between 2010 and 2050
Source: IFPRI IMPACT results 2012
34. Percent Change in kilocalorie availability per capita
per day between 2010 and 2050
Percent change from 2010 to 2050
12.0%
10.0%
Reference (MIROC A1b)
8.0% Drought Tolerance
Heat Tolerance
Integrated SFM
6.0%
No Till
N Use Efficiency
4.0% Precision Ag
2.0%
0.0%
Source: IFPRI IMPACT results 2012
35. Percent Change in the Number of Malnourished
Children 2050, compared to reference run
Percent difference from reference in 2050
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.5% Drought Tolerance
Heat Tolerance
-2.0%
Integrated SFM
-2.5% No Till
N Use Efficiency
-3.0%
Precision Ag
-3.5%
-4.0%
-4.5%
-5.0%
Source: IFPRI IMPACT results 2012
36. Conclusions
Agricultural technology investments—including
both “advanced” and “traditional”
technologies/management practices are a game
changer in terms of yield improvements
and national and global food security
We now can model disaggregated/locale-specific
technology impacts
While biophysical potential often exists to
significantly increase yields, institutions,
governance systems, political will, and poor rural
infrastructure remain obstacles to achieving the
full technological potential