Presentations for CTA/WUR Inception Workshop on “Mainstreaming Tertiary Education in ACP ARD Policy Processes: Increasing Food Supply and Reducing Hunger”

1. From Food Production to Food Security:
challenges & opportunities
Prof. dr ir Rudy Rabbinge
Emeritus University Professor Sustainable Development & Food security
CTA/WUR Inception Workshop: increasing food supply & reducing
hunger, Sept. 18th, 2012

2. Content
 Megatrends in agriculture
 Global food security
 Why is Africa lagging behind (IAC study)
 A way forward

3. Megatrends in agriculture

4. …Global Food Security …

5. Global grain productivity (1950 – 2010)
400 production
ton/ha
300
Index value
200
100 area
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
year
Source: FAOstat

6. Global grain acreage (1950 – 2010)
400
300
Index value
population
200
100 area
per capita
0 area
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
year
Source: FAOstat

7. Global grain production (1950 – 2010)
400 production
300
Index value
population
200
per capita
100 production
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
year
Source: FAOstat

8. Food availability per capita (1960 – 2000)
150
Asia
125
S. America
Index value
100 SS Africa
75
50
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
year
Source: FAOstat

9. Global diets
kcal per person.day need
1 billion people 1 billion people
underweight overweight
0 1000 2000
2000 3000 4000

10. Global diets
kcal per person.day need world
India
China
The Netherlands
USA
Dem. Rep. of Congo
Africa
0 1000 2000
2000 3000 4000

11. Demand = Population x Diet

12. World population
(x billion people)
10
8
6
world
4 developing world
developed world
2
0
1990 2010 2030 2050

13. Global population
Developed Emerg. Urban Emerg. Rural
2.6
3.1 (billions)
5.3
2.6
1.2 1.3
2010 2050
Source: VFRC

14. Food demand
% increase 2050 vs 2010
Total 70%
Emerg. Rural 9%
Emerg. Urban 163%
Developed 6%
Source: IFDC

15. Discontinuities wheat yields (NL)
ton grain ha-1
10
150 kg ha-1 y-1
Green revolution
8
6
4 15 kg ha-1 y-1
2
0
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

16. Discontinuities wheat yields (UK & USA)
ton grain ha-1
6
Green revolution
5
78 kg ha-1 y-1
4
UK
3
USA
4 kg ha-1 y-1
2
50 kg ha-1 y-1
1 3 kg ha-1 y-1
0
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

17. Discontinuities paddy yield (Indonesia)
ton paddy ha-1
5
Green revolution
4
3
2,5 kg ha-1 y-1 130 kg ha-1 y-1
2
1
0
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

18. Green revolutions
 Production ecological principles towards potential
production
● integrated soil and water management
● control of pests, diseases and weeds
 Plant breeding short straw varieties (harvest index
increased)  higher proportion harvestable product
 Presence of functioning institutions
 Political will
 Functioning markets

19. Needs for new green revolutions
 Demographic reasons (population growth)*
 Changes in diet (more animal proteins)
 Shortage of good agricultural land
 Safeguard biodiversity
 Environmental reasons (degradation/pollution)
 Bio-based economy*
 Climate change

20. Production-ecological principles & practice
Defining factors Limiting factors Reducing factors Post-harvest
•CO2 •water •weeds losses
•radiation •nutrients •pests •microbial
•temperature (N,P,K) •diseases •insects
•crop genetics •pollutants •rodents
•waste
yield level
yield yield
increasing protecting
yield gap
measures measures
post-
harvest-
technology
• storage
• packing
potential attainable actual available
production production production production
PRODUCTION SITUATION

21. Two strategies
increase
potential
yield gap
yield gap
decrease
yield gap
potential actual potential actual
yield yield yield yield

22. …Why is Africa lagging behind ?...

23. Africa: Maize yield/ha stagnates
10 Actual maize
yield (t ha-1) EU15
8 N. America
6
4
L. America
& Car.
2 E. & S-E.Asia
S. Asia
Sub-S. Africa
0
1960 1970 1980 1990 Year 2000

24. Why is Africa lagging behind?
Study by Inter Academy Council
“ Realizing the promise and potential
of African agriculture”
“I request the IAC a report providing a
technological strategic plan to provide
substantial increase in agricultural
productivity in Africa”
Kofi Annan, March 2002

25. Study results (1) Problems of Africa
 Weathered soils
 Erratic rainfall
 Endemic plant and animal diseases
 Poor resource base,
 Vulnerable environment Nutrient depletion
no data
low
moderate
 Absence of dominating food crops high
very high
 Multitude of farming systems
 Need for many different technologies

26. Study results (2) Problems of Africa
 Dominant role for women – limited access to resources
 Land and Labor productivity low
 How to become competitive?
 Lack of investment in agricultural research
 Lack of knowledge infrastructure
 Lack of functioning academic institutions
 Brain drain
 Need for investment in research and education

27. GDP & Investments in agriculture
Public spending on agriculture lowest in agriculture based countries
while their share of agriculture in GDP is highest
Agricultural GDP/GDP Public agric. spending/agric. GDP
% %
35 35
1980 2000 1980 2000
30 30
25 25
20 20
15 15
10 10
5 5
0 0
Agric. based Transforming Urbanized Agric. based Transforming Urbanized
Source: IAC report

28. Study results (3) Problems of Africa
 Not functioning local and regional markets
 Land entitlement inappropriate
 No stimulating political and economic environment
 Inadequate capacity to impact global policy formulation
 Lack of good governance
 Need for renewal of institutional arrangements

29. …A way forward …

30. IAC report: Strategic Recommendations
 Technology options that can make a difference (11)
 Building impact-oriented research, knowledge and
development institutions (5)
 Creating and retaining a new generation of
agricultural scientists (5)
 Markets and policies to make the poor prosperous
and food secure (5)
 Increase investments in agriculture and
infrastructure

31. IAC report: Priorities on 4 farming systems
Agricultural Value Added (Worldbank) Underweight Children (CIESIN)
160
120
100
80
40
0

32. Priority Farming Systems
Irrigated system
Maize mixed system
Tree crop based system
Cereal root crop mixed system
Hunger Hotspot (CIESIN)

33. IAC report: A Production Ecological Approach
Yields according to Yields under actual field conditions
production ecological principles
12
unidentified factors
limiting factors
reducing factors
10
Yield Gap potential
relative yield
8
YG-1
6
4
YG-2
2
0
Potential Water & Reduced Experimental Best farmer Average
Nutr limited
. field farmer

34. IAC report: Invest in institutions
 Design and invest in national agricultural science
systems that involve farmers in education, research and
extension.
 Encourage institutions to articulate science and
technology strategies and policies
 Increase agricultural research investment on average to
at least 1.5 percent of agricultural gdp in African nations
in 2015
 Cultivate African centres of agricultural research
excellence.
 Strengthen CGIAR

35. IAC report: Create new scientists
 Broaden and deepen political support for agricultural
science.
 Mobilize increased and sustainable funding for higher
education in science and technology, minimizing
dependence on donor support.
 Focus on current and future generations of agricultural
scientists.
 Reform university curricula
 Strengthen science education at primary and secondary
school levels.

36. IAC report: Interventions related to marketing
 Increase investments in rural infrastructure
 Strengthen capacity to expand market opportunities
 Reduce barriers to increased African trade with OECD
countries
 Improve data generation and analysis related to
agriculture, food, and nutrition security and
vulnerability
 Institute effective intellectual property rights regimes
to encourage the private sector and facilitate public-
private partnerships.

37. Impact of IAC-report: Alignment in studies
 World Development Report 2008
 International Assessment of Agricultural
Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development
(IAASTD)
 MDG: Halving the Hunger: it can be done
 Multi-country agricultural productivity programme for
Africa (MAPP)
 OECD Promoting Pro-Poor Growth: Agriculture (POVNET)
 FAO The State of Food and Agriculture (2005):
Agricultural Trade and Poverty

38. A New Green Revolution
AGRA programs develop practical solutions to
significantly boost farm productivity and incomes for
the poor while safeguarding the environment.

39. Implementation IAC report
 Technology options that make a difference
 PASS program AGRA
 Soil health program AGRA and other programs
 Integrated programs, leapfrogging to new
technologies (production ecology)
 Improved ecological literacy, no ecological
dogmatism

40. Implementation IAC report
 Building impact oriented research, knowledge and
development institutions
• Strengthening FARA and national programs
• Many private-public institutions
• Global Challenge program Sub Sahara Africa

41. Implementation IAC report
 Markets to make the poor prosperous and food
● SecureCommitment African Union
● Strengthening regional and local markets
● Markets oriented programs AGRA

42. Progress in Ethiopia - investments
Trends in agri. investment capital (billion Birr)
100
80
60
40
20
-
1980s
1990s
2000s
2009
Source: Dr. A. Tsegaye, 2012

43. Progress in Ethiopia - returns
Trends in agricultural export value (x1000 USD)
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2003 2004
2005 2006
2007 2008
Source: Dr. A. Tsegaye, 2012

44. Undernourishment (% of total population)
> 35%
30%
20%
10%
< 5%
2006-2008
2000-2002
1995-1997
1990-1992
Source: FAO

45. Follow-up activities
 Consolidation and expansion AGRA
 IFDC programs on integrated soil fertility management
including market development for input provision and
sale of produce
 CAADP political commitment of African governments:
African-led and African-owned initiative focus on
● soil fertility
● marketing
● agricultural research
● food supply and hunger
 AAA stimulation of entrepreneurship
 Strenghtening food security programs in various
countries: USA, DFID, The Netherlands