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CPWF Conference: Revitalizing the 
Ganges Coastal Zone 
21-23 October 2014
Adaptation strategy for crop production in 
changing climate: Saline prone Barisal region 
Study Team 
M Maniruzzaman, J C...
Introduction 
• About 3.5 billion peoples lives on rice 
• About 50% fresh water is used for rice 
production 
• Irrigated...
• Due to climate change: Temp increasing & sea level 
rising 
• Frequency & magnitude of climatic events- flood, 
drought,...
Coastal district: 19 (Upazila 147) 
48 upazilas in 12 districts- exposed coast 
99 upazilas- interior coast
Projected salinity intrusion due to sea level rise 
Legend 
0 cm SLR (Area : 9239 sq 
km) 
32 cm SLR (Area :10612 sq 
km) ...
Main Problem 
• Increasing water & soil salinity 
• Inland saline water intrusion 
• Cyclone (AYLA, SIDR, RESMY, MOHASEN, ...
Objectives 
• To assess the climate change impacts, analyze 
the implications for regional hydrology and 
vulnerability of...
Methodology 
Study sites: Saline prone Barisal region
Methodology 
• Project sites: information of stakeholders, reports & 
literatures 
• Local adaptation strategies- intervie...
Methodology 
• Field demonstrations of different technologies 
- Stress tolerant variety 
- Water and Fertilizer managemen...
Findings 
Initial soil nutrient status at Barisal project sites 
Locations EC pH OM Total 
N 
Mg K P B Zn 
dS/m - % Meq/10...
Present and future status of climate 
Temperature 
• Based on 30 years (1983-2012) 
– Maximum annual avg. temp. = 32.7 oC ...
• Compared to 1990-2010 period 
• Temp. will be increased in 2100 by 
– 1.0-3.0 oC in A1B scenario 
– 0.6-2.5 oC in A2 sce...
Rainfall 
• Average annual rainfall = 1805-2039 mm 
• Only 16-17% in winter season 
• Based on A1B scenario 3% rainfall wi...
• Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Transient 
(GFDL-TR) model predicted increased RF in Mar-Nov 
during 2050 and 2070...
Percent change in annual rainfall in study areas
Thirty years (1983-2012) daily average temp & rainfall, its 
variation by 2050 Barisal region
Critical temperature for sterility in some selected field crops 
Name of crop Critical temp. for 
sterility (oC) 
Referenc...
Drought prevalence at Barisal region during 1983-2012. -1to -1.5 
Slight, -1.5 to -2.0 Moderate and > -2.0 Severe drought
Water Availability by SWAT Model 
• Water availability will be reduced for all season: But it 
will be reduced by 12-30% i...
T. Aus & T. Aman yield under A1B & A2 scenarios (DRAS Model) 
Crop 
name 
% of yield increase (+) or decrease (-) from bas...
Demand and surface water availability (mm) at 
Amtali upazila, Barguna 
Scena 
rios 
Year T. Aus T. Aman Boro Surplus/Defi...
Net Irrigation Water Requirement (mm) 
Crop 
Name 
Base 
year 
(1981- 
2010) 
Change of NIR (mm) 
2020s 2050s 2080s 
A1B A...
The way for climatic adaptation 
• Low water demanding crop cultivation 
• Salt and heat tolerant variety cultivation 
bas...
Farmers adaptation 
Major cropping patterns & percent area coverage in study area 
Locations Cropping patterns Coverage 
(...
What the farmers done 
L0cal variety
What the farmers done 
Fish in gher during 
monsoon 
Rice crop in gher 
during winter
What the farmers done
What the farmers done
Field activities 
• Salt and heat tolerant variety cultivation 
• Increasing water storage in canal/khal and 
motivated th...
Field findings 
Water use, crop yield & water productivity in Aus, Barisal site 
Crop Mgt. Water 
use 
(mm) 
Yield 
(t/ha)...
Water use, crop yield & water productivity in Aman season at 
Barisal region 
Rice Mgt. Water 
use 
(mm) 
Yield 
(t/ha) 
W...
Water use, grain yield & water productivity of Boro rice at 
Barisal region, 2012-2013 
Crop Mgt. Total water 
use (mm) 
Y...
Water use, grain yield & water productivity of wheat at Barisal 
region, 2012-2013 
Crop Mgt. water 
use 
(mm) 
Yield 
(t/...
Water use, grain yield & water productivity of mustard at 
Barisal region, 2012-2013 
Crop Mgt. RF (mm) Total water 
use (...
Can we overcome it? 
Rice crop damaged by 
cyclone MOHASEN in 
Patharghata 
BRRI dhan47 could not survive 
in high salinit...
All farmers are not interested for rice cultivation
Crop damaged by salinity 
BRRI dhan47 
Salinity effect may be reduced by water 
management, but it increase irrigation cos...
Capacity building: Farmer’s training/Field days
Crop variety adaptation 
Adoption of different T.Aman varieties during 2013
Adoption of different Rabi/Boro varieties during 2013
Recommendations 
• Concerted efforts of all regional research & 
extension organizations are needed for adaptation 
activi...
Acknowledgements 
• Authors acknowledge the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 
Norway/the Royal Norwegian Embassy, Dhaka for 
f...
THANK YOU VERY MUCH
Adaptation strategy for crop production in changing climate: Saline-prone Barisal region
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Adaptation strategy for crop production in changing climate: Saline-prone Barisal region

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By M. Maniruzzaman, J.C. Bisawas, M.A.I. Khan, G.W. Sarker, S.S. Haque, J.K. Biswas, M.H. Sarker, M.A. Rashid, N.U. Sekhar, A. Nemes, S. Xenarios, J. Deelstra

Revitalizing the Ganges Coastal Zone Conference
21-23 October 2014, Dhaka, Bangladesh
http://waterandfood.org/ganges-conference/

Published in: Government & Nonprofit
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Adaptation strategy for crop production in changing climate: Saline-prone Barisal region

  1. 1. CPWF Conference: Revitalizing the Ganges Coastal Zone 21-23 October 2014
  2. 2. Adaptation strategy for crop production in changing climate: Saline prone Barisal region Study Team M Maniruzzaman, J C Biswas, M A I Khan, G W Sarker, S S Haque, J K Biswas Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), Gazipur, Bangladesh M H Sarker, M A Rashid Center for Environmental and Geographical Information Services (CEGIS), Dhaka, Bangladesh N U Sekhar, A Nemes, S Xenarios and J Deelstra The Norwegian Institute for Agricultural and Environmental Research (Bioforsk), Ås, Norwey Presented by Md. Maniruzzaman, PhD Principal Scientific Officer, IWM Division Bangladesh Rice Research Institute
  3. 3. Introduction • About 3.5 billion peoples lives on rice • About 50% fresh water is used for rice production • Irrigated area is about 56%. – 70% from GW & – 30% from SW
  4. 4. • Due to climate change: Temp increasing & sea level rising • Frequency & magnitude of climatic events- flood, drought, storm, cyclone increasing • Need more food from reduced land area NCA & population growth by 2025 in Bangladesh
  5. 5. Coastal district: 19 (Upazila 147) 48 upazilas in 12 districts- exposed coast 99 upazilas- interior coast
  6. 6. Projected salinity intrusion due to sea level rise Legend 0 cm SLR (Area : 9239 sq km) 32 cm SLR (Area :10612 sq km) 88 cm SLR (Area :14468 sq km)
  7. 7. Main Problem • Increasing water & soil salinity • Inland saline water intrusion • Cyclone (AYLA, SIDR, RESMY, MOHASEN, storm & tidal surge • Increasing temperature • Short winter
  8. 8. Objectives • To assess the climate change impacts, analyze the implications for regional hydrology and vulnerability of rice crop production and • To adopt sustainable crop production technology for saline prone areas of Bangladesh
  9. 9. Methodology Study sites: Saline prone Barisal region
  10. 10. Methodology • Project sites: information of stakeholders, reports & literatures • Local adaptation strategies- interview with farmers, field visits & literature search • Climate change scenarios development: (i) downscaling of available data by using climate model, (ii) water availability scenarios through hydrological modeling (SWAT Model) (iii) water requirement (net irrigation requirement) scenario using DRAS model, (iv) crop production scenarios (productions/yield losses)
  11. 11. Methodology • Field demonstrations of different technologies - Stress tolerant variety - Water and Fertilizer management - Crop establishment method, etc
  12. 12. Findings Initial soil nutrient status at Barisal project sites Locations EC pH OM Total N Mg K P B Zn dS/m - % Meq/100 gm soil Microgram/gm Amtali 1.44- 6.85 4.3- 7.1 0.93- 2.63 0.05- 0.14 5.09- 8.08 0.21- 0.72 0.42- 5.76 0.22- 1.10 0.54- 1.60 Kalapara 1.66- 5.86 4.7- 5.4 0.76- 2.16 0.04- 0.12 4.97- 7.99 0.20- 0.34 0.85- 8.76 0.50- 0.95 0.69- 1.28 Pathargha ta 1.91- 11.51 4.5- 7.2 .83- 4.17 0.05- 0.24 3.32- 6.56 .20- 0.61 1.27- 11.78 0.33- 0.98 0.52- 2.77 Critical values - - - 0.12 0.50 0.12 8.00 0.20 0.60
  13. 13. Present and future status of climate Temperature • Based on 30 years (1983-2012) – Maximum annual avg. temp. = 32.7 oC – Minimum annual avg. temp. = 13.7 oC – Recorded • Maximum temp. = 38.1 oC • Minimum temp. = 8.5 oC
  14. 14. • Compared to 1990-2010 period • Temp. will be increased in 2100 by – 1.0-3.0 oC in A1B scenario – 0.6-2.5 oC in A2 scenario – But based on IPCC (2013) • Minimum temp. will be increased by 1.8 oC • Maximum temp. will be increased by 3.4 oC
  15. 15. Rainfall • Average annual rainfall = 1805-2039 mm • Only 16-17% in winter season • Based on A1B scenario 3% rainfall will be increased in 2011-2040, but 3% rainfall will be decreased in 2041-2100 • Based on A2 scenario 9-11% rainfall will be decreased in 2041-2070, but 3% will be increased in 2071-2100 • There was no concluding remarks for increasing and decreasing of rainfall
  16. 16. • Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Transient (GFDL-TR) model predicted increased RF in Mar-Nov during 2050 and 2070, but Hadly center predicted decreased RF during same period • At per RegCM3, dry period rainfall (Dec.-Feb) may increase up to 107% by 2050. If it really happens, it might hamper winter crops establishment, especially non-rice crops in optimum time. Pre-monsoon rainfall might decrease by 67% indicating increased supplemental irrigation of Kharif-I crops
  17. 17. Percent change in annual rainfall in study areas
  18. 18. Thirty years (1983-2012) daily average temp & rainfall, its variation by 2050 Barisal region
  19. 19. Critical temperature for sterility in some selected field crops Name of crop Critical temp. for sterility (oC) Reference Rice (Oryza sativa L.) 35 BRRI, 2011 Wheat (Tritichum aestivum L.) 30 Saini and Aspinal, 1982 Chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) 35 Devasirvatham et al, 2012 Pea (Pisum sativum) 30 McDonald & Paulsen, 1997 Groundnut (A. hypogaea L.) 35 Prasad et al, 1999 Mustard (Brassica juncea L.) 27 Chauhan et al, 2013 Mung bean (Vigna radiata L.) 40 Tickoo et al, 19996 Tomato (L. esculentum L.) 32 Peet et al, 1998
  20. 20. Drought prevalence at Barisal region during 1983-2012. -1to -1.5 Slight, -1.5 to -2.0 Moderate and > -2.0 Severe drought
  21. 21. Water Availability by SWAT Model • Water availability will be reduced for all season: But it will be reduced by 12-30% in Aus/Khatif-I (pre-monsoon) season • Water availability will be slightly increased in Aman (monsoon) season
  22. 22. T. Aus & T. Aman yield under A1B & A2 scenarios (DRAS Model) Crop name % of yield increase (+) or decrease (-) from base scenario 2020s 2050s 2080s A1B A2 A1B A2 A1B A2 T. Aus +(6 to 7) +(6 to 7) +(3 to 4) +(6 to 7) +(0 to 1) +(6 to 7) T. Aman -(8 to 11) -(5 to 7) -(3 to 10) -(13 to 19) -(4 to 12) -(2 to 8)
  23. 23. Demand and surface water availability (mm) at Amtali upazila, Barguna Scena rios Year T. Aus T. Aman Boro Surplus/Deficit Dem and SWA Dem and SWA Dem and SWA T. Aus T. Aman Boro A1B Base 117 833 97 473 881 58 716 376 -823 2020s 39 950 118 486 898 55 911 368 -843 2050s 74 802 146 469 890 55 728 323 -835 2080s 109 823 116 475 919 51 714 359 -868 A2 2020s 6 772 107 388 824 65 766 281 -759 2050s 24 762 120 402 820 51 738 282 -769 2080s 31 903 104 508 859 48 872 404 -811
  24. 24. Net Irrigation Water Requirement (mm) Crop Name Base year (1981- 2010) Change of NIR (mm) 2020s 2050s 2080s A1B A2 A1B A2 A1B A2 T. Aus 100-120 -(60 to 80) -(90 to 110) -(25 to 40) -(80 to 90) -(3 to 8) -(70 to 90) T. Aman 80-125 +(20 to 30) +(10 to 30) +(50 to 70) +(20 to 40) +(20 to 25) +(10 to 30) Boro 830-880 +(10 to 20) -(40 to 60) +(10 to 30) -(40 to 60) +(35 to 40) -(10 to 30)
  25. 25. The way for climatic adaptation • Low water demanding crop cultivation • Salt and heat tolerant variety cultivation based on land suitability • Increasing water storage capacity by re-excavation of canal (khal), pond etc. and cultivation of rice and non-rice crops by using this water • Increasing capacity to combat the climatic adverse effect
  26. 26. Farmers adaptation Major cropping patterns & percent area coverage in study area Locations Cropping patterns Coverage (%) Kalapara Pulses-Fallow-T. Aman 55 Rabi crops-Fallow-T.Aman 20 Fallow-T. Aus-T.Aman 10 Others 15 Amtali Pulses-T. Aus-T.Aman 56 Fallow-T.Aus-T.Aman 34 Others 10 Patharghata Fallow-Fallow-T.Aman 45 Fallow-T.Aus-T.Aman 25 Potato/Sunflower-Fallow-T.Aman 20 Others 10
  27. 27. What the farmers done L0cal variety
  28. 28. What the farmers done Fish in gher during monsoon Rice crop in gher during winter
  29. 29. What the farmers done
  30. 30. What the farmers done
  31. 31. Field activities • Salt and heat tolerant variety cultivation • Increasing water storage in canal/khal and motivated the farmers for crop cultivation • Motivated the farmers for low water demanding and salt tolerant crops like wheat and mustard • Field demonstration for modern cultivation • Training and field days for adaptation for climatic effect
  32. 32. Field findings Water use, crop yield & water productivity in Aus, Barisal site Crop Mgt. Water use (mm) Yield (t/ha) Water productivity (kg/ha-mm) T. Aus RM 435 3.70-4.15 (3.85) 8.51-9.54 (8.85) FM 435 3.26-3.75 (3.42) 7.49-8.62 (7.86) BRRI dhan55
  33. 33. Water use, crop yield & water productivity in Aman season at Barisal region Rice Mgt. Water use (mm) Yield (t/ha) Water productivity (kg/ha-mm) T. Aman (145-154 days) RM 438 4.32-4.91 (4.58) 9.86-11.21 (10.46) FM 438 4.19-4.50 (4.25) 9.56-10.27 (9.70) Relayed felon with BRRI dhan46
  34. 34. Water use, grain yield & water productivity of Boro rice at Barisal region, 2012-2013 Crop Mgt. Total water use (mm) Yield (t/ha) Water productivity (kg/ha-mm) Boro Rice RM 912-992 (952) 4.47-5.20 (4.90) 4.70-5.46 (5.15) FM 982-1108 (1042) 4.13-4.68 (4.35) 3.96-4.50 (4.17)
  35. 35. Water use, grain yield & water productivity of wheat at Barisal region, 2012-2013 Crop Mgt. water use (mm) Yield (t/ha) Water productivity (kg/ha-mm) Wheat RM 150 2.0-2.5 (2.30) 13.33-16.67 (15.33) Patharghata site Amtali site
  36. 36. Water use, grain yield & water productivity of mustard at Barisal region, 2012-2013 Crop Mgt. RF (mm) Total water use (mm) Yield (t/ha) Mustard RM - - 1.20-1.50 (1.30)
  37. 37. Can we overcome it? Rice crop damaged by cyclone MOHASEN in Patharghata BRRI dhan47 could not survive in high salinity (> 10 dS/m)
  38. 38. All farmers are not interested for rice cultivation
  39. 39. Crop damaged by salinity BRRI dhan47 Salinity effect may be reduced by water management, but it increase irrigation cost
  40. 40. Capacity building: Farmer’s training/Field days
  41. 41. Crop variety adaptation Adoption of different T.Aman varieties during 2013
  42. 42. Adoption of different Rabi/Boro varieties during 2013
  43. 43. Recommendations • Concerted efforts of all regional research & extension organizations are needed for adaptation activities, • Revival of drainage systems, • Measurement of trapped water salinity before use for irrigation, • Necessary steps to develop water delivery system to cultivate crops far away from fresh water sources.
  44. 44. Acknowledgements • Authors acknowledge the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Norway/the Royal Norwegian Embassy, Dhaka for funding research activities in collaboration with BRRI, CEGIS and Bioforsk under “Climate Change Impacts Vulnerability and Adaptation: Sustaining Rice Production in Bangladesh” project
  45. 45. THANK YOU VERY MUCH

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