CPWF Conference: Revitalizing the
Ganges Coastal Zone
21-23 October 2014

Adaptation strategy for crop production in
changing climate: Saline prone Barisal region
Study Team
M Maniruzzaman, J C Biswas, M A I Khan, G W Sarker, S S Haque, J K
Biswas
Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), Gazipur, Bangladesh
M H Sarker, M A Rashid
Center for Environmental and Geographical Information Services
(CEGIS), Dhaka, Bangladesh
N U Sekhar, A Nemes, S Xenarios and J Deelstra
The Norwegian Institute for Agricultural and Environmental Research
(Bioforsk), Ås, Norwey
Presented by
Md. Maniruzzaman, PhD
Principal Scientific Officer, IWM Division
Bangladesh Rice Research Institute

Introduction
• About 3.5 billion peoples lives on rice
• About 50% fresh water is used for rice
production
• Irrigated area is about 56%.
– 70% from GW &
– 30% from SW

• Due to climate change: Temp increasing & sea level
rising
• Frequency & magnitude of climatic events- flood,
drought, storm, cyclone increasing
• Need more food from reduced land area
NCA & population growth by 2025 in Bangladesh

Coastal district: 19 (Upazila 147)
48 upazilas in 12 districts- exposed coast
99 upazilas- interior coast

Projected salinity intrusion due to sea level rise
Legend
0 cm SLR (Area : 9239 sq
km)
32 cm SLR (Area :10612 sq
km)
88 cm SLR (Area :14468 sq
km)

Main Problem
• Increasing water & soil salinity
• Inland saline water intrusion
• Cyclone (AYLA, SIDR, RESMY, MOHASEN,
storm & tidal surge
• Increasing temperature
• Short winter

Objectives
• To assess the climate change impacts, analyze
the implications for regional hydrology and
vulnerability of rice crop production and
• To adopt sustainable crop production
technology for saline prone areas of
Bangladesh

Methodology
Study sites: Saline prone Barisal region

Methodology
• Project sites: information of stakeholders, reports &
literatures
• Local adaptation strategies- interview with farmers,
field visits & literature search
• Climate change scenarios development:
(i) downscaling of available data by using climate model,
(ii) water availability scenarios through hydrological
modeling (SWAT Model)
(iii) water requirement (net irrigation requirement)
scenario using DRAS model,
(iv) crop production scenarios (productions/yield losses)

Methodology
• Field demonstrations of different technologies
- Stress tolerant variety
- Water and Fertilizer management
- Crop establishment method, etc

Findings
Initial soil nutrient status at Barisal project sites
Locations EC pH OM Total
N
Mg K P B Zn
dS/m - % Meq/100 gm
soil
Microgram/gm
Amtali 1.44-
6.85
4.3-
7.1
0.93-
2.63
0.05-
0.14
5.09-
8.08
0.21-
0.72
0.42-
5.76
0.22-
1.10
0.54-
1.60
Kalapara 1.66-
5.86
4.7-
5.4
0.76-
2.16
0.04-
0.12
4.97-
7.99
0.20-
0.34
0.85-
8.76
0.50-
0.95
0.69-
1.28
Pathargha
ta
1.91-
11.51
4.5-
7.2
.83-
4.17
0.05-
0.24
3.32-
6.56
.20-
0.61
1.27-
11.78
0.33-
0.98
0.52-
2.77
Critical
values
- - - 0.12 0.50 0.12 8.00 0.20 0.60

Present and future status of climate
Temperature
• Based on 30 years (1983-2012)
– Maximum annual avg. temp. = 32.7 oC
– Minimum annual avg. temp. = 13.7 oC
– Recorded
• Maximum temp. = 38.1 oC
• Minimum temp. = 8.5 oC

• Compared to 1990-2010 period
• Temp. will be increased in 2100 by
– 1.0-3.0 oC in A1B scenario
– 0.6-2.5 oC in A2 scenario
– But based on IPCC (2013)
• Minimum temp. will be increased by 1.8 oC
• Maximum temp. will be increased by 3.4 oC

Rainfall
• Average annual rainfall = 1805-2039 mm
• Only 16-17% in winter season
• Based on A1B scenario 3% rainfall will be increased
in 2011-2040, but 3% rainfall will be decreased in
2041-2100
• Based on A2 scenario 9-11% rainfall will be
decreased in 2041-2070, but 3% will be increased in
2071-2100
• There was no concluding remarks for increasing and
decreasing of rainfall

• Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Transient
(GFDL-TR) model predicted increased RF in Mar-Nov
during 2050 and 2070, but Hadly center predicted
decreased RF during same period
• At per RegCM3, dry period rainfall (Dec.-Feb) may
increase up to 107% by 2050. If it really happens, it
might hamper winter crops establishment, especially
non-rice crops in optimum time. Pre-monsoon rainfall
might decrease by 67% indicating increased
supplemental irrigation of Kharif-I crops

Percent change in annual rainfall in study areas

Thirty years (1983-2012) daily average temp & rainfall, its
variation by 2050 Barisal region

Critical temperature for sterility in some selected field crops
Name of crop Critical temp. for
sterility (oC)
Reference
Rice (Oryza sativa L.) 35 BRRI, 2011
Wheat (Tritichum aestivum
L.)
30 Saini and Aspinal, 1982
Chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) 35 Devasirvatham et al, 2012
Pea (Pisum sativum) 30 McDonald & Paulsen, 1997
Groundnut (A. hypogaea L.) 35 Prasad et al, 1999
Mustard (Brassica juncea L.) 27 Chauhan et al, 2013
Mung bean (Vigna radiata L.) 40 Tickoo et al, 19996
Tomato (L. esculentum L.) 32 Peet et al, 1998

Drought prevalence at Barisal region during 1983-2012. -1to -1.5
Slight, -1.5 to -2.0 Moderate and > -2.0 Severe drought

Water Availability by SWAT Model
• Water availability will be reduced for all season: But it
will be reduced by 12-30% in Aus/Khatif-I (pre-monsoon)
season
• Water availability will be slightly increased in Aman
(monsoon) season

T. Aus & T. Aman yield under A1B & A2 scenarios (DRAS Model)
Crop
name
% of yield increase (+) or decrease (-) from base scenario
2020s 2050s 2080s
A1B A2 A1B A2 A1B A2
T. Aus +(6 to 7) +(6 to 7) +(3 to 4) +(6 to 7) +(0 to 1) +(6 to 7)
T. Aman -(8 to 11) -(5 to 7) -(3 to 10) -(13 to 19) -(4 to 12) -(2 to 8)

Demand and surface water availability (mm) at
Amtali upazila, Barguna
Scena
rios
Year T. Aus T. Aman Boro Surplus/Deficit
Dem
and
SWA Dem
and
SWA Dem
and
SWA T.
Aus
T.
Aman
Boro
A1B Base 117 833 97 473 881 58 716 376 -823
2020s 39 950 118 486 898 55 911 368 -843
2050s 74 802 146 469 890 55 728 323 -835
2080s 109 823 116 475 919 51 714 359 -868
A2 2020s 6 772 107 388 824 65 766 281 -759
2050s 24 762 120 402 820 51 738 282 -769
2080s 31 903 104 508 859 48 872 404 -811

Net Irrigation Water Requirement (mm)
Crop
Name
Base
year
(1981-
2010)
Change of NIR (mm)
2020s 2050s 2080s
A1B A2 A1B A2 A1B A2
T. Aus 100-120 -(60 to 80) -(90 to 110) -(25 to 40) -(80 to 90) -(3 to 8) -(70 to 90)
T. Aman 80-125 +(20 to 30) +(10 to 30) +(50 to 70) +(20 to 40) +(20 to 25) +(10 to 30)
Boro 830-880 +(10 to 20) -(40 to 60) +(10 to 30) -(40 to 60) +(35 to 40) -(10 to 30)

The way for climatic adaptation
• Low water demanding crop cultivation
• Salt and heat tolerant variety cultivation
based on land suitability
• Increasing water storage capacity by re-excavation
of canal (khal), pond etc. and
cultivation of rice and non-rice crops by
using this water
• Increasing capacity to combat the climatic
adverse effect

Farmers adaptation
Major cropping patterns & percent area coverage in study area
Locations Cropping patterns Coverage
(%)
Kalapara Pulses-Fallow-T. Aman 55
Rabi crops-Fallow-T.Aman 20
Fallow-T. Aus-T.Aman 10
Others 15
Amtali Pulses-T. Aus-T.Aman 56
Fallow-T.Aus-T.Aman 34
Others 10
Patharghata Fallow-Fallow-T.Aman 45
Fallow-T.Aus-T.Aman 25
Potato/Sunflower-Fallow-T.Aman 20
Others 10

What the farmers done
L0cal variety

What the farmers done
Fish in gher during
monsoon
Rice crop in gher
during winter

What the farmers done

What the farmers done

Field activities
• Salt and heat tolerant variety cultivation
• Increasing water storage in canal/khal and
motivated the farmers for crop cultivation
• Motivated the farmers for low water demanding
and salt tolerant crops like wheat and mustard
• Field demonstration for modern cultivation
• Training and field days for adaptation for
climatic effect

Field findings
Water use, crop yield & water productivity in Aus, Barisal site
Crop Mgt. Water
use
(mm)
Yield
(t/ha)
Water
productivity
(kg/ha-mm)
T. Aus
RM 435 3.70-4.15
(3.85)
8.51-9.54
(8.85)
FM 435 3.26-3.75
(3.42)
7.49-8.62
(7.86)
BRRI
dhan55

Water use, crop yield & water productivity in Aman season at
Barisal region
Rice Mgt. Water
use
(mm)
Yield
(t/ha)
Water
productivity
(kg/ha-mm)
T. Aman
(145-154
days)
RM 438 4.32-4.91
(4.58)
9.86-11.21
(10.46)
FM 438 4.19-4.50
(4.25)
9.56-10.27
(9.70)
Relayed felon with BRRI dhan46

Water use, grain yield & water productivity of Boro rice at
Barisal region, 2012-2013
Crop Mgt. Total water
use (mm)
Yield
(t/ha)
Water productivity
(kg/ha-mm)
Boro
Rice
RM 912-992
(952)
4.47-5.20
(4.90)
4.70-5.46
(5.15)
FM 982-1108
(1042)
4.13-4.68
(4.35)
3.96-4.50
(4.17)

Water use, grain yield & water productivity of wheat at Barisal
region, 2012-2013
Crop Mgt. water
use
(mm)
Yield
(t/ha)
Water
productivity
(kg/ha-mm)
Wheat RM 150 2.0-2.5
(2.30)
13.33-16.67
(15.33)
Patharghata site Amtali site

Water use, grain yield & water productivity of mustard at
Barisal region, 2012-2013
Crop Mgt. RF (mm) Total water
use (mm)
Yield
(t/ha)
Mustard RM - - 1.20-1.50
(1.30)

Can we overcome it?
Rice crop damaged by
cyclone MOHASEN in
Patharghata
BRRI dhan47 could not survive
in high salinity (> 10 dS/m)

All farmers are not interested for rice cultivation

Crop damaged by salinity
BRRI dhan47
Salinity effect may be reduced by water
management, but it increase irrigation cost

Capacity building: Farmer’s training/Field days

Crop variety adaptation
Adoption of different T.Aman varieties during 2013

Adoption of different Rabi/Boro varieties during 2013

Recommendations
• Concerted efforts of all regional research &
extension organizations are needed for adaptation
activities,
• Revival of drainage systems,
• Measurement of trapped water salinity before use for
irrigation,
• Necessary steps to develop water delivery system to
cultivate crops far away from fresh water sources.

Acknowledgements
• Authors acknowledge the Ministry of Foreign Affairs,
Norway/the Royal Norwegian Embassy, Dhaka for
funding research activities in collaboration with
BRRI, CEGIS and Bioforsk under “Climate Change
Impacts Vulnerability and Adaptation: Sustaining
Rice Production in Bangladesh” project

THANK YOU VERY MUCH