Sustainable Development



                          Karel Mulder
Polynesian Society:
             Clans
             rivalry
  Religious centres
              ‘ahu’
Complex Society
   deforestation
       Collapse
Parallel?
oil




Parallel Easter island?
Space Debris




Parallel Easter island?
Cultural collapse
• Salinisation –
  pumping, irrigation
• Agricultural erosion,
  Dust Bowl
• Monocultures:
  epidemics
But also sometimes creativity



• Industrial revolution by shortage of wood
           » --

• Steam engine
SD is not ‘environment

-Cycles
-equity integrated

-Sometimes contradictory:
    Organic water treatment,
    etc..
What is an environmental problem?
karelm: voorspelling op basis van zonne activiteit: bewijs voor antropogene klimaatverandering
              http://web.dm...
Sustainable Development:
The world is our common heritage
not just environmental efficiency but also equity
SD is related to interests

As you know, I oppose the Kyoto Protocol because it
exempts 80 percent of the world, including...
The Global Challenge

    Halving our usage of
   environment/resources

Income in poor ‘South’ at least
    50 % of ‘Nort...
I=P*A*T
I   Environmental Impact

P   Population

A   Affluence
    Consumption of services and
    products per capita

T...
80-20 rule of thumb:

20 % of world population
consumes 80 % of natural
resources (fossil fuels, ores etc.)

Ergo: resourc...
Economic growth

           2002     2003      2004
 USA       2,4      2,5       3,5
 JAPAN     0,2      2         1,25
 ...
A Future in 50 years?

North 2 % growth
South 6-7 % growth

6-7 % growth for 50 years means: factor 18-30
2 % growth for 5...
Population growth until
2050:
9,5 billion
Prognosis Population

                          2000                                  2050
WORLD                     6.071...
From Vision to Action
                        The Challenge

                                   2000         2050

Global ...
Renewal
                                   by Need
                                 And function
E   20
F
F
E
C
          ...
13.02, Mulder — Lecture on sustainable development
13.02, Mulder — Lecture on sustainable development
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13.02, Mulder — Lecture on sustainable development

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SD Course in Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, 12-23 Febraury 2006

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13.02, Mulder — Lecture on sustainable development

  1. 1. Sustainable Development Karel Mulder
  2. 2. Polynesian Society: Clans rivalry Religious centres ‘ahu’
  3. 3. Complex Society deforestation Collapse
  4. 4. Parallel?
  5. 5. oil Parallel Easter island?
  6. 6. Space Debris Parallel Easter island?
  7. 7. Cultural collapse • Salinisation – pumping, irrigation • Agricultural erosion, Dust Bowl • Monocultures: epidemics
  8. 8. But also sometimes creativity • Industrial revolution by shortage of wood » -- • Steam engine
  9. 9. SD is not ‘environment -Cycles -equity integrated -Sometimes contradictory: Organic water treatment, etc..
  10. 10. What is an environmental problem?
  11. 11. karelm: voorspelling op basis van zonne activiteit: bewijs voor antropogene klimaatverandering http://web.dmi.dk/fsweb/solarterrestrial/sunclimate/welcome.shtml
  12. 12. Sustainable Development: The world is our common heritage not just environmental efficiency but also equity
  13. 13. SD is related to interests As you know, I oppose the Kyoto Protocol because it exempts 80 percent of the world, including major population centers such as China and India, from compliance, and would cause serious harm to the U.S. economy. The Senate's vote, 95-0, shows that there is a clear consensus that the Kyoto Protocol is an unfair and ineffective means of addressing global climate change concerns.
  14. 14. The Global Challenge Halving our usage of environment/resources Income in poor ‘South’ at least 50 % of ‘North’ in 2050
  15. 15. I=P*A*T I Environmental Impact P Population A Affluence Consumption of services and products per capita T Technology Environmental burden per product or service unit
  16. 16. 80-20 rule of thumb: 20 % of world population consumes 80 % of natural resources (fossil fuels, ores etc.) Ergo: resource consumption Rich world is 16 times more than in Poor World
  17. 17. Economic growth 2002 2003 2004 USA 2,4 2,5 3,5 JAPAN 0,2 2 1,25 EU 1,1 0,75 2 INDUST 1,6 1,75 2,5 RIAL Overig 4,5 4,5 5,25 Wereld 3 3 3,75 http://www.cpb.nl/nl/cpbreport/2003_3/cpbr033.pdf
  18. 18. A Future in 50 years? North 2 % growth South 6-7 % growth 6-7 % growth for 50 years means: factor 18-30 2 % growth for 50 years means: factor 2.7 Result: - Equity difference reduced from factor 16 to factor 1.5-2.4 - Growth resource consumption: Factor 5.8-8.2
  19. 19. Population growth until 2050: 9,5 billion
  20. 20. Prognosis Population 2000 2050 WORLD 6.071 8.919 More developed regions 1.194 1.220 Less developed regions 4.877 7.699 Least developed countries 668 1.675 Africa 796 1.803 Asia 3.680 5.222 Europe 728 632 Latin America + Carib. 520 768 Northern America 316 448 Oceania 31 46 Data: UN Population Division, World Population in 2300 (http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/longrange2.htm)
  21. 21. From Vision to Action The Challenge 2000 2050 Global Population 1 1,5 * * Affluence/person 1 6–9 * * Pollution/affluence 1 1/9 – 1/27 = = Pollution 1 1 – 1/2 Improvement factor “20” 23
  22. 22. Renewal by Need And function E 20 F F E C improvement T of products and processes 5 Optimal use 1 2000 TIME 2050

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