Ecologisch ontwerpen voor onze toekomst
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Door Pablo Tittonell
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Ecologisch ontwerpen voor onze toekomst
- 1. Former Chair Professor - Farming Systems Ecology Group Wageningen University, The Netherlands Sustainable agricultural production and agroecology Pablo Tittonell National Coordinator Natural Resources and the Environment, INTA, Argentina Ecological intensification of agricultural landscapes Akker Naar Bos Congres – Bemmel, 9 December 2016
- 2. The intensification discourse The world’s population will grow to 9 billion by mid-century, putting substantial demands on the planet’s food supply. To meet these growing demands, we will need to grow almost twice as much food by 2050 as we do today. And that means we’ll need to use genetically modified crops and other advanced technologies to produce this additional food. It’s a race to feed the world, and we had better get started. By 2050: • Population is expected to grow by 28%, from 7 to 9 billon • Most of the growth expected in poorest regions (diets below average) • About 3 to 4 billon people to eat better diets (mainly China and India) • Food habits: plant based diet, less waste • We have choices! Where does the ‘doubling production’ discourse come from?
- 4. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Oman NL BE Contribution to world production (%) Average yield per country (t ha-1) 50 100 75 25 Kuwait NZ USA China Western Europe S Korea Egypt Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia & Central America Vietnam India 12.5% Turkey Australia Argentina 3.1 Brazil Ukraine Mexico 0.2% Source: FAOSTAT 2014 15% 1.3 t/ha Low yield countries High yield countries 178 Mha 86 Mha Land available
- 5. Food security requires local solutions to a global problem American corn belt Rural Malawi Biofuels Food security Availability Access Stability Utilisation Increasing homogeneity in global food supply (Khoury et al., 2014)
- 6. Red Meat Fish Milk Fruit Nuts and Seeds Vegetables Whole grains Globally available food (% of what we need) 568% 100% 154% Murray (2014) Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation 89% 42% 66% 51% 148% Agroforestry Photo credits: Project SAFE (INRA 2005) and P. Tittonell Crop-livestock integration Intensive smallholder dairy in Kenya (P. Tittonell 2005) Nutrition-sensitive landscapes Bulozi, Zambia
- 7. Yes… Need to produce more food? but not anywhere, and not at any cost!
- 8. Sustainability Hard targets vs. soft targets How do we make such a soft concept operational? Dimensions (Brundtland): social, environmental, economic Indices: semi-quantitative assessments, scores, rankings Indicators: principles, reference values, thresholds The planetary boundaries Any form of agricultural intensification that contributes to trespassing these boundaries, and/or that jeopardizes the ability of future generations to feed themselves can be considered unsustainable Axiom
- 10. The pesticide treadmill The intensification treadmill
- 11. African bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera) The Bt treadmill Figure 1. Frequencies of cry2Ab resistance alleles in H. punctigera from cropping populations. Recognizing that protoxins can be more potent than activated toxins against resistant insects may help to enhance and sustain the efficacy of transgenic Bt crops.
- 12. Herbicide use increases and resistance is widespread Return to older, more problematic herbicides Stacked traits and new recommendations will increase total herbicide use Facilitates resistance by increasing selection pressure Critical juncture for sustainable weed mgmt. Integrated weed management Replace more-toxic herbicides Reduce total amount of herbicide use Simplify and improve weed management Unlikely weeds would develop resistance Herbicide-resistant weeds Dave Mortensen Ecology Inter College Graduate Degree Program and Department of Plant Sciences, Pennsylvania State University, dmortensen@psu.edu Moving forward - or - backward? Trans-gene facilitated pes cide treadmill 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year FarmerAdoption(%) 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 Glyphosate Resistant Soybean Adoption Glyphosate Usage 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year FarmerAdoption(%) 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 Glyphosate Resistant Soybean Adoption Glyphosate Usage 90 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 HerbicideActiveIngredient(tons) te Resistant Soybean Adoption te Usage 90 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 HerbicideActiveIngredient(tons) te Resistant Soybean Adoption te Usage
- 14. Ecological intensification: Gradual replacement of non-renewable resources and toxines by ecological processes to increase sustainability
- 15. Biodiversity, landscapes and ecosystem services
- 16. 16 Crops Income Farmers Ecosystem services Benefits to human well-being Beneficiaries Queiroz et al., 2015 ES bundlesEcosystem services and their spatial characteristics (Costanza, 2008)
- 17. Source habitat Sink habitat Built-in corridors Natural corridors Habitat management in agricultural landscapes
- 18. Ecological infrastructure in agricultural landscapes Effect of habitat loss is more important than the effect of pesticide use Before pesticide application Crop After pesticide application Border BorderCrop Predatorabundance(#) Predator abundance (Varni et al., 2007) Granivore foliage gleaners Ground nesting Granivore foliage gleaners Insectivore foliage gleaners Insectivore aerial foragers and salliers Occupancy Goijman, 2014 Estructura del borde vs. diversidad de artrópodos consumidos Counts How to design an ideal landscape? (Zaccagnini et al., 2014)
- 19. Landscape-level innovation Ecosystem services from linear landscape elements Spatial and temporal heterogeneity Greater species diversity (Zacagnnini et al., 2013) Homogeneous HeterogeneousMammals Amphibians Birds Arthropods Richness
- 21. Ekoland Innovatieprijs 2013 High yielding organic cereal production in The Netherlands Practice Planting density Weight 1000 seeds Plants/m2 at tillering Ears/m2 Grain yield (t/ha) Current 200 52 111 277 6.7 Adapted 60 60 84 317 7.7 Adapting management practices for organic wheat
- 22. Co-innovation: a dialogue of wisdoms
- 23. Agroecological Farm La Aurora (Argentina) Beef production (kg/ha) Wheat production (kg/ha)Production costs (US$/ha)
- 24. zamora.martín@inta.gob.ar Cels: 2983 509167 ; 11 6794 1152 Reproducing La Aurora’s system under controlled conditions Mixed farming systems RutanacionalNº3
- 25. Oats/ Vicia/ red clover 2013 Oats Sorghum/ soy 2011/12 Soy Durum wheat/ red clover 2012 Durum wheat Oats/ Vicia 2011 Oats Current (high input) Agroecological
- 26. Siembra de Sorgo 2013/14 Agroecológico Sorghum 2013/14 Soybean 2013/2014 Current (high input) Agroecological
- 27. Trigo candeal (2 variedades) + Trébol rojo 2014 Trigo candeal 2014 Actual. Altos insumos Agroecológico Avena, Vicia Alfalfa, Trébol Rojo 2015 Avena 2015Year Crop Produce Yield (kg/ha) Crop Produce Yield (kg/ha) 2011 Oats-vicia Beef 147 Oats Beef 100 2011/12 Sorghum-soy Beef 163 Soybean Grain 1200 2012 Durum wheat+ Red clover Grain 2900 Durum wheat Grain 3600 2013 Oats-vicia Beef 305 Oats Beef 467 2013/14 Sorghum Beef 94 Soybeans Grain 0* 2014 Durum wheat + Red clover Grain 3800 Durum wheat Grain 3800 2015 Oats-vicia Beef 305 Oats Beef 227 Year Agroecológico Actual Crop diversity 11 (Av/Vicia/Sgo/Sj/Mz/Trigo candeal/trigo pan/Trébol rojo/Alfalfa/Festuca) 4 (Av/Vicia/Sj/Trigo candeal) Use of herbicides 1 l/ha Glifosato - 1200 cc MCPA - 80 cc dicamba - 700 cc Bromoxinil 27,5 l/ha - 1000 cc axial - 160 cc Dicamba + 18,4 g Metsulfuron - 500 cc 2,4-D -100 cc Tordon Nr of applications 3 18 Inoculants 9 veces (Micorrizas, Pseudomonas, Bradyrhizobium japonicum, Rizobium meliilotii) 2 veces (Bradyrhizobium japonicum) Urea 0 590 kg/ha DAP 390 kg/ha 410 kg/ha Rye husks 1500 kg/ha 0 Agroecological Current (high input) 3390 1346 2045 3056 2219 838 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 Ingreso Neto Costo Directo Margen Bruto U$S/ha AGROE ACTUAL Economic results Less energy costs
- 28. How do we get out of the “niche”?
- 29. Rice-ducks-fish-azolla - Indonesia Khumairoh et al., 2012 Building upon local agroecological knowledge Rice yield (t ha-1) at increasing levels of complexity 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Rice Rice + ducks Rice + compost Rice + ducks + fis h Rice + compost + azolla Rice + ducks + compost Rice + ducks + fish + compost Rice + ducks + compost + azolla Rice + ducks + fish + compost + azolla Assessing greenhouse gas emissions (T. del Rio, 2014) Air ammonia concentration at 3 sampling dates Nutritional ‘carrying capacity’ of each system (G. Garnacho Alemany, 2014)
- 30. Large scale rice-fish polycultures (Argentina) • 900 ha rice-fish system (and growing) • Use of a local fish species (Pacú) • Water and nutrient recycling • Agrochemical-free rice (9 t/ha) • Native grasses to outcompete weeds (Echinocloa) • Processing and cooling facilities • Challenge: reduce dependence on sojabean
- 31. A conventional farmer purchasing pesticides An agroecological farmer inspecting his intercrop Comunicación e imágen Photo: Steve Sherwood Photo: Clarin Rural Estancia Laguna Blanca, Entre Rios, Argentina Ecological farming on 3000 ha Agroecology can also be high-tech! e.g. nanotechnology solutions
- 32. Tools Four action areas to support transitions DialogueEvidence Practice change Guidance Policies Regulations Standards Financing Inclusiveness Joint action Homologate metrics Negotiate tradeoffs Awareness raising Innovation networks Efficient/solidary markets Capacity building Institutions Co-creation of knowledge Impact assessment Foresight/monitoring Options and Indicators Capacity building Virtuous circle
- 33. Thanks for your attention www.concienciaambiental.org www.pablotittonell.net Pablo Tittonell Coordinador Programa Nacional Recursos Naturales, Gestión Ambiental y Ecorregiones Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA) EEA Bariloche Modesta Vitoria 4450, CC 277 8400 San Carlos de Bariloche Río Negro, Argentina Tittonell.pablo@inta.gob.ar www.agroecologycourses.org
- 35. WikiLeaks: Monsanto recruits scientists as lobbyists!
- 36. Philip Morris vs. Uruguay Switzerland-based tobacco giant is suing Uruguay over cigarette packaging restrictions (limits on space for branding unfairly infringes on intellectual property rights)
- 37. Before After Minas Gerais, Brazil Extreme poverty (%) in Brazil, 1990-2008 FAO, 2010 Zero hunger program Targeted actions A national policy on agroecology
- 38. “People in China, who with brain and brawn, have successfully and continuously sustained large families on small areas without impoverishing their soil. ” 580 600 620 640 214 305 407 505 431 531 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1961 1969 1977 1985 1993 2001 2009 2017 2025 Grain(millionton) Year Grain demand Grain production Population The challenge of feeding an increasingly urban population 张强 黑龙江农科院 中国农大 吉林农科院 吉林农大 中国农大 中国农大 中国农大 河北农科院 河北农大山东农大 青岛农大南京农大 安徽科技学院 安徽农科院浙大 华中农大 南亚所 中国农大 海南大学 四川农科院 西南大学 山西农科院内蒙古农大 西北农林大学 甘肃农科院 石河子大学 河南农大 云南农大 已建小院 23 在建小院 13 四川农大 广西大学 Stepwise approach: productivity, efficiency, incomes, diversification Fu-Suo Zhang Images were taken in March 27, 2004 0.1 to 0.3 ha per family Credits: F. Zhang The case of China
- 39. Ecosystem services in the Norrström basin 39 Mapping bundles of ecosystem services in the Norrström basin, Sweden Queiroz et al., 2015
- 40. Land sharing vs. land sparing
- 41. Technical innovation Institutionalinnovation Critical transition zone (vulnerability) Towards sustainable food systems…
- 42. Ecosystem services The ´cascade´ model (Haines-Young and Potschin, 2009) Intermediate and final services (Fisher and Turner, 2009) Biophysical structures or processes Ecological functions Ecosystem services Benefits (Value)Intermediate products Final products Intermediate services Final services Benefits e.g. Water regulation Pollination Soil formation e.g. Clean water provision Constant flow Storm regulation e.g. Drinking water Recreation Property protection Ecosystem services and their spatial characteristics (Costanza, 2008)
- 43. A tipping point? 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Argentina Brazil Lha-1yr-1 Use of agrochemicals (FAO Stat) Agrochemical use in Argentina (1997-2013) CASAFE
Editor's Notes
- Add potato mixtures yield
- We found 5 different types of municipalities. These types are characterized by a certain set of ecosystem services. There are 2 kinds of municipalities with cropland but one has more livestock and one with a higher concentration of horses. There are 2 types of municipalities with a lot of forest and forest products, but one of them has more moose hunting and higher nutrient retention. And the urban municipalities have a high concentration of recreational activities. Now how closely municipalities fit the category they are in can reveal opportunities for the potential of the kinds of services they can produce.