THE VERTICAL SHIFT: AVOIDING  THE  MALTHUSIAN  CATASTROPHE BY GORDON GRAFF
“ The power of population is so superior to the power of the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death mu...
Population Pressures <ul><li>As Malthus identified, the human population has  </li></ul><ul><li>a linear relationship with...
<ul><li>To feed the additional 2.5 billion people expected </li></ul><ul><li>by 2050, 10 9  hectares (1,000,000,000 ha) of...
Linear Consumption of Land Dust Bowl – 1930s USA William B. Greeley, The Relation of Geography to Timber Supply, Economic ...
Linear Consumption of land About ½ of the mature tropical forest cover of the earth has been destroyed, somewhere between ...
Linear Consumption of land AFGHANISTAN 70% loss Between 1990 and 2005 Afghanistan lost  33.8%  of its woodland habitat. In...
Nigeria presently has the highest rate of deforestation of primary forests, according to the UN.  Between 1990 and 2005 th...
Linear Consumption of land MADAGASCAR 94% loss Madagascar’s rampant deforestation has resulted in extensive desertificatio...
Linear consumption of land PHILIPPINES +90% loss At one time 95% of the land area of the Philippine archipelago was covere...
Brazil <ul><li>Since 1970, 600,000 square kilometers of Amazonian Rainforest </li></ul><ul><li>have been destroyed within ...
Tierras Bajas Project – BOLIVIA <ul><li>Located within the topical rainforest just </li></ul><ul><li>east of Santa Cruz </...
Agriculture’s Land Consumption 26% Forrest   & Savannah 38% Agriculture <ul><li>Approximately 38% of the Earth’s land is b...
Food Security $145 barrel July 2008 $70 barrel July 2006 Environmental Variability Food – Oil Connection Haiti   April 200...
<ul><li>Dramatically Improve Land Efficiency to avoid… </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Massive starvation </li></ul></ul>INITIATIVES...
<ul><li>Dramatically Improve Land Efficiency to avoid… </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Massive starvation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li...
<ul><li>Dramatically Improve Land Efficiency to avoid… </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Massive starvation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li...
<ul><li>Dramatically Improve Land Efficiency to avoid… </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Massive starvation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li...
<ul><li>Dramatically Improve Land Efficiency to avoid… </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Massive starvation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li...
Sky Farm Sky Farm
<ul><li>59 Floors </li></ul><ul><li>238 m (714 ft) </li></ul><ul><li>3,800,000 ft 2  floor area </li></ul><ul><li>11,000,0...
Sky Farm PHOTOVOLTAICS GREEN WALL (SILAGE)
Sky Farm Sky Farm   YEARLY PRODUCTION 54,388,000   lbs   of Vegetable Produce 989,000   lbs   of Animal Meat  455,000   lb...
x2.8  SURFACE  AREA Space Efficiency  – Surface Area 63 metres (surface area) 182 metres (growing area) = EXAMPLE : Strawb...
x10  HARVESTS Space Efficiency  – Conditioned Space = Multiple Harvests Example: Strawberry Production 1 ACRE  X 2.8 (VERT...
Space Efficiency  – Vertical Stacking James Wines – HIGHRISE OF HOMES
Sky Farm Sky Farm   PRODUCE EQUAL TO… 1369.62   acre or  547.85   hectares … of conventional farming 18.18 acres of Lettuc...
Sky Farm 1.34 hectares
Sky Farm 1.34 hectares 230 hectares
Sky Farm 230 hectares + 230 hectares = only  460 hectares!
Sky Farm Sky Farm   CALCULATIONS
Sky Farm Sky Farm   CALCULATIONS 40,000
ANAEROBIC DIGESTER LIVING MACHINE TM Sky Farm WASTE H 2 0 CLEAN H 2 0  POWER Sky Farm   BUILDING SYSTEM DIAGRAM SILAGE AGR...
Sky Farm Sky Farm   CALCULATIONS Data courtesy of Dr. Dickson Despommier Columbia University
Sky Farm POWER Sky Farm   URBAN SYSTEM DIAGRAM PRE-FILTER SEWAGE BIO-WASTE / COMPOSTABLES ORGANIC WASTE WASTE WATER POWER ...
GROW Housing   Moss Park (Toronto)
GROW Housing Moss Park <ul><li>The tightly packed tenement houses that characterised the </li></ul><ul><li>neighbourhood w...
Program GROW Housing
<ul><li>LIVING MACHINE  – FILTERS FARM & RESIDENTIAL WASTE WATER </li></ul><ul><li>HYDROPONIC FARM  –  PRODUCES ENOUGH FOO...
Community Gardens <ul><li>CREATES 5,300 m 2  OF COMMUNITY ACCESS GARDENS </li></ul><ul><li>NUTRIENT-RICH COMPOST AND NATUR...
GROW Housing Cyclical Resource Flows
GROW Housing
Dongtan  – China ARUP
Masdar  – United Arab Emirates Sir NORMAN FOSTER
RAK Gateway  – United Arab Emirates OMA – REM KOOLHAAS
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Urban farming-presentation july2008

  1. 1. THE VERTICAL SHIFT: AVOIDING THE MALTHUSIAN CATASTROPHE BY GORDON GRAFF
  2. 2. “ The power of population is so superior to the power of the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race.” _____________________________ Thomas Malthus, 1789 THE VERTICAL SHIFT: AVOIDING THE MALTHUSIAN CATASTROPHE BY GORDON GRAFF
  3. 3. Population Pressures <ul><li>As Malthus identified, the human population has </li></ul><ul><li>a linear relationship with land </li></ul><ul><li>Present estimates indicated at least 80% of </li></ul><ul><li>potentially arable land is already being used for </li></ul><ul><li>agricultural purposes. </li></ul>
  4. 4. <ul><li>To feed the additional 2.5 billion people expected </li></ul><ul><li>by 2050, 10 9 hectares (1,000,000,000 ha) of land </li></ul><ul><li>will be required to feed them with conventional </li></ul><ul><li>farming practices </li></ul><ul><li>To get a scale of this area requirement, it is </li></ul><ul><li>about approximately the size of Brazil </li></ul><ul><li>This is simply not available </li></ul>Population Pressures
  5. 5. Linear Consumption of Land Dust Bowl – 1930s USA William B. Greeley, The Relation of Geography to Timber Supply, Economic Geo. 1925 DUST BOWL – 1930s US MID-WEST
  6. 6. Linear Consumption of land About ½ of the mature tropical forest cover of the earth has been destroyed, somewhere between 750-800 million hectares
  7. 7. Linear Consumption of land AFGHANISTAN 70% loss Between 1990 and 2005 Afghanistan lost 33.8% of its woodland habitat. In total, 70% of its forests have been destroyed.
  8. 8. Nigeria presently has the highest rate of deforestation of primary forests, according to the UN. Between 1990 and 2005 the country lost 35.7% of its forest cover. All together, 79% of Nigeria’s primary forests have been destroyed. Reasons: Logging, Subsistence Agriculture, Collection of Firewood Linear Consumption of land NIGERIA 79% loss
  9. 9. Linear Consumption of land MADAGASCAR 94% loss Madagascar’s rampant deforestation has resulted in extensive desertification, water resource degradation, and soil loss. Approximately 94% of its biologically diverse lands have been destroyed, nearly all of which has occurred since claiming independence from France in 1958. This is disheartening when considering 5% of the earths plant and animal species are located in Madagascar, most of which are endemic.
  10. 10. Linear consumption of land PHILIPPINES +90% loss At one time 95% of the land area of the Philippine archipelago was covered by tropical rainforest Today, over 90% of this diverse ecosystem has been destroyed The Philippines is ranked as having the most severely endangered mammal and bird faunas in the world
  11. 11. Brazil <ul><li>Since 1970, 600,000 square kilometers of Amazonian Rainforest </li></ul><ul><li>have been destroyed within Brazil for agriculture uses. That is </li></ul><ul><li>about the size of Manitoba, or, two and half times the size of the </li></ul><ul><li>United Kingdom. This is approximately 40% of its size of1950 </li></ul><ul><li>The soil of the Amazon is not ideal for crop cultivation, and tends to </li></ul><ul><li>only stay fertile for a limited time. Farmers are constantly clearing </li></ul><ul><li>more land to meet production needs </li></ul><ul><li>Unless significant steps are taken to limit deforestation in this area, </li></ul><ul><li>it is projected that by 2030 only 10% of this vital natural resource </li></ul><ul><li>will remain </li></ul>
  12. 12. Tierras Bajas Project – BOLIVIA <ul><li>Located within the topical rainforest just </li></ul><ul><li>east of Santa Cruz </li></ul><ul><li>Communities were established on a </li></ul><ul><li>5 km x 5 km grid for Soybean cultivation </li></ul>
  13. 13. Agriculture’s Land Consumption 26% Forrest & Savannah 38% Agriculture <ul><li>Approximately 38% of the Earth’s land is being used for human agriculture. When considering all forests/wooded areas/savannahs only cover 26%, and urban space a tiny 3.5%, the scale of human agriculture comes into view. </li></ul>
  14. 14. Food Security $145 barrel July 2008 $70 barrel July 2006 Environmental Variability Food – Oil Connection Haiti April 2008 Climate Change Pest Damage Drought Food Security
  15. 15. <ul><li>Dramatically Improve Land Efficiency to avoid… </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Massive starvation </li></ul></ul>INITIATIVES FOR THE 21 st CENTURY
  16. 16. <ul><li>Dramatically Improve Land Efficiency to avoid… </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Massive starvation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Irreversible ecological catastrophe </li></ul></ul>INITIATIVES FOR THE 21 st CENTURY
  17. 17. <ul><li>Dramatically Improve Land Efficiency to avoid… </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Massive starvation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Irreversible ecological catastrophe </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Realize a Fossil-Fuel free form of agriculture </li></ul>INITIATIVES FOR THE 21 st CENTURY
  18. 18. <ul><li>Dramatically Improve Land Efficiency to avoid… </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Massive starvation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Irreversible ecological catastrophe </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Realize a Fossil-Fuel free form of agriculture </li></ul><ul><li>Improve Food Security </li></ul>INITIATIVES FOR THE 21 st CENTURY
  19. 19. <ul><li>Dramatically Improve Land Efficiency to avoid… </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Massive starvation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Irreversible ecological catastrophe </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Realize a Fossil-Fuel free form of agriculture </li></ul><ul><li>Improve Food Security </li></ul><ul><li>Reduce negative ecological impact of agriculture </li></ul><ul><li>(methane, nitrous oxide emissions) </li></ul>INITIATIVES FOR THE 21 st CENTURY
  20. 20. Sky Farm Sky Farm
  21. 21. <ul><li>59 Floors </li></ul><ul><li>238 m (714 ft) </li></ul><ul><li>3,800,000 ft 2 floor area </li></ul><ul><li>11,000,000 ft 2 growing area </li></ul><ul><li>Feeds over 40,000 people </li></ul><ul><li>year round </li></ul><ul><li>Fossil-fuel free agriculture </li></ul><ul><li>Redefining ‘local’ </li></ul><ul><li>agriculture </li></ul>Sky Farm
  22. 22. Sky Farm PHOTOVOLTAICS GREEN WALL (SILAGE)
  23. 23. Sky Farm Sky Farm YEARLY PRODUCTION 54,388,000 lbs of Vegetable Produce 989,000 lbs of Animal Meat 455,000 lbs of Eggs 2,006,000 lbs of Lettuce 1,822,000 lbs of Cucumber 2,990,000 lbs of Eggplant 3,028,000 lbs of Strawberries 2,736,000 lbs of Peppers 4,672,000 lbs of Carrots 6,570,000 lbs of Spinach 6,570,000 lbs of Soybeans 5,292,000 lbs of Green Beans 5,474,000 lbs of Tomatoes <ul><li>,000 </li></ul>lbs of Poultry meat 455,000 dzn Eggs 5,997,000 lbs of Wheat 7,231,000 lbs of Potatoes 242,000 lbs of Tilapia (fish) meat
  24. 24. x2.8 SURFACE AREA Space Efficiency – Surface Area 63 metres (surface area) 182 metres (growing area) = EXAMPLE : Strawberry Production
  25. 25. x10 HARVESTS Space Efficiency – Conditioned Space = Multiple Harvests Example: Strawberry Production 1 ACRE X 2.8 (VERTICAL ORIENT.) X 10 HARVESTS = 28 ACRES <ul><li>Temperature and lighting control </li></ul><ul><li>enables the optimal growing </li></ul><ul><li>conditions for each plant type </li></ul><ul><li>to be maintained indefinitely </li></ul>
  26. 26. Space Efficiency – Vertical Stacking James Wines – HIGHRISE OF HOMES
  27. 27. Sky Farm Sky Farm PRODUCE EQUAL TO… 1369.62 acre or 547.85 hectares … of conventional farming 18.18 acres of Lettuce 12.45 acres of Cucumber 48.93 acres of Eggplant 332.11 acres of Strawberries 22,20 acres of Peppers 18.70 acres of Carrots 389.64 acres of Spinach 340.02 acres of Soybeans 49.10 acres of Green Beans 14.43 acres of Tomatoes n/a acres of Poultry meat n/a acres Eggs 55.10 acres of Wheat 67.95 acres of Potatoes n/a acres of Tilapia (fish) meat
  28. 28. Sky Farm 1.34 hectares
  29. 29. Sky Farm 1.34 hectares 230 hectares
  30. 30. Sky Farm 230 hectares + 230 hectares = only 460 hectares!
  31. 31. Sky Farm Sky Farm CALCULATIONS
  32. 32. Sky Farm Sky Farm CALCULATIONS 40,000
  33. 33. ANAEROBIC DIGESTER LIVING MACHINE TM Sky Farm WASTE H 2 0 CLEAN H 2 0 POWER Sky Farm BUILDING SYSTEM DIAGRAM SILAGE AGRI-WASTE
  34. 34. Sky Farm Sky Farm CALCULATIONS Data courtesy of Dr. Dickson Despommier Columbia University
  35. 35. Sky Farm POWER Sky Farm URBAN SYSTEM DIAGRAM PRE-FILTER SEWAGE BIO-WASTE / COMPOSTABLES ORGANIC WASTE WASTE WATER POWER TO GRID WATER TO CITY WATER
  36. 36. GROW Housing Moss Park (Toronto)
  37. 37. GROW Housing Moss Park <ul><li>The tightly packed tenement houses that characterised the </li></ul><ul><li>neighbourhood were cleared during the urban renewal programs of </li></ul><ul><li>the 1950s and 60s </li></ul><ul><li>Over the years, the city’s social and temporary housing initiatives </li></ul><ul><li>slowly accumulated in the neighbourhood due to the affordable </li></ul><ul><li>land and central location </li></ul><ul><li>The building site, which is on the west side of the park, is currently </li></ul><ul><li>consumed by the Moss Park Armoury </li></ul>
  38. 38. Program GROW Housing
  39. 39. <ul><li>LIVING MACHINE – FILTERS FARM & RESIDENTIAL WASTE WATER </li></ul><ul><li>HYDROPONIC FARM – PRODUCES ENOUGH FOOD TO SUSTAIN 1,000 PEOPLE / YR </li></ul><ul><li>ANAEROBIC DIGESTER – COLLECTS FARM WASTE, COMPOSTABLES FROM RESIDENTIAL UNITS </li></ul><ul><li> AND SOLID WASTE FROM WASTE WATER TO PRODUCE POWER </li></ul><ul><li> (ALSO CAN PROCESS BIO-WASTES FROM NEIGHBORHOOD) </li></ul>LIVING MACHINE HYDROPONIC FARM ANAEROBIC DIGESTER GROW Housing Building System
  40. 40. Community Gardens <ul><li>CREATES 5,300 m 2 OF COMMUNITY ACCESS GARDENS </li></ul><ul><li>NUTRIENT-RICH COMPOST AND NATURAL FERTILIZERS GENERATED ON SITE </li></ul><ul><li>(FROM ANAEROBIC DIGESTER) </li></ul><ul><li>INTRODUCES SOCIAL ACTIVITY, AS WELL AS A GREATER DEGREE OF SELF- </li></ul><ul><li>SUFFICIENCY FOR LOW-INCOME EARNERS </li></ul>GROW Housing
  41. 41. GROW Housing Cyclical Resource Flows
  42. 42. GROW Housing
  43. 43. Dongtan – China ARUP
  44. 44. Masdar – United Arab Emirates Sir NORMAN FOSTER
  45. 45. RAK Gateway – United Arab Emirates OMA – REM KOOLHAAS

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