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Implication of transport policies when meeting Swedish climate goals

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Implication of transport policies when meeting Swedish climate goals

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Implication of transport policies when meeting Swedish climate goals

  1. 1. 74rd SEMI-ANNUAL ETSAP MEETING 7 November 2018 at IER Stuttgart University Implication of Transport Policies when meeting Swedish Climate Goals Dr. Anna Krook Riekkola (Energy system analysis) and Dr. Åsa Lindman (Economics) Luleå University of Technology
  2. 2. 2 AGENDA • Background: Why • Background: Swedish Energy System • HOW: Energy system optimisation modelling using TIMES-Sweden • HOW: Transportations in TIMES-Sweden • Scenario Analysis: Policies & Framing • Some results: Vehicle types • Some results: Biofuel produces • Insights (results analysis are in progress)
  3. 3. 4 A climate policy framework & a climate and clean air strategy for Sweden entered into force Jan 2018 1. A long-term climate goal: By 2045 - at the latest – Sweden will have no net emissions of greenhouse gases. 2. Intermediate targets only for emissions outside the EU Emissions Trading System (known as the non-trading sector/NETS). • NETS targets for year 2030 and 2040. • Transport sector targets for year 2030. 3. A clean air strategy with a focus on reducing air pollutants (NOX, SO2, VOC, NH4 and particles) and thereby improved air quality. BACKGROUND-WHY: Climate Act Net-zero means 15% of reduction can be offset by: i)LULUCF, ii)abroad, iii)BECCS
  4. 4. 6 Net Zero GHG in 2045 Almost fossil free space heating Low carbon electricity and DH production Large forestry potential High share of biofuels in the transport sector Net Zero GHG in 2045 Almost fossil free space heating Low carbon electricity and DH production Large forestry potential High share of biofuels in the transport sector Energy intensive industry sectors An increasing transportation demand. BACKGROUND: Swedish Energy System
  5. 5. 10 BACKGROUND: Swedish Energy System 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Final use of energy per sector (TWh) Source: Swedish Energy Agency (2017) Res & Com Domestic Transports Manufacturing Chemical Mining Iron&Steel Saw & wood Pupl&Paper Other Industry 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Final Energy Use per Energy Carrier (TWh) Source: Swedish Energy Agency (2017) Electricity DH Other Gas Oil Coal Biomass Industry RSD&COM Transports Other 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Coal Oil Natural gas Others Electricity District heating Biomass Final Energy Consumption by sector in year 2015
  6. 6. 11 BACKGROUND: Swedish Energy System 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 TWh Final energy demand in Transport sector by Transport mode (TWh) Train Aviation Navigation Road Source: The Swedish Energy Agency & Statistics Sweden
  7. 7. 12 BACKGROUND: Swedish Energy System 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 TWh Final energy demand in Transport sector by Fuel (TWh) Electricity Biofuel Natural gas Kerason Oil 2–6 Oil 1 Diesel Gasoline Source: The Swedish Energy Agency & Statistics Sweden
  8. 8. 13 BACKGROUND: Swedish Energy System 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 TWh Biofuel in Transport sector per Fuel typ (TWh) Biogas Biodiesel Bioetanol Source: The Swedish Energy Agency & Statistics Sweden
  9. 9. HOW Energy System Optimisation Modelling using TIMES-Sweden
  10. 10. 16 TIMES-Sweden Developments: - Initially developed as a part of the Pan European TIMES model (PET model), within two EU funded projects (NEEDS and RES2020). - Emissions-factors/Ancillary benefits (Krook-Riekkola et al. 2011) - Iron- and steel industry (2012) - District heating (Krook-Riekkola & Söderholm, 2013), (Pädam et al., 2013) - Demand through soft-linking with EMEC (Krook-Riekkola et al. 2013a, 2013b) - Residential sector (Boverket, 2015) - Biomass (Fjärrsyn project, 2015-2017) - Transportation (on-going PhD project/Jonas Forsberg) - Industry sectors incl CCS (on-going PhD project/Erik Sandberg) Documentation: TIMES-Sweden is described in Krook-Riekkola (2015). The model is similar to the JRC-EU-TIMES model, documents by Simoes et al. (2013). TIMES-Sweden identifies how limited resources can be allocated in order to minimize the total system costs. TIMES-Sweden is a comprehensive energy system model represented by seven (soon eight) main sectors: Industries, Residential, Services, Agriculture, Transports, ELC&DH and Energy supply and fuel production. The model is driven by the demand for energy-intensive goods and services. TIMES-Sweden is based on the TIMES- platform (IEA-ETSAP) and share the main structure with, e.g., JRC-EU-TIMES. - Energy system optimisation model - Comprehensive Energy System - Dynamic LP-model (12 per/year) - Long-term Modelling (20-50 years) - Bottom-up/Techno-economic model - Cost minimisation - Multi-Partial Equilibrium Model - Technology Rich   EXPORT Electricity Heat Commercial Residential Industry D E M A N D U S E F U L E N E R G Y P R I M A R Y S U P P L Y Transport Agriculture Policy Instruments Emissions IMPORT Electri- city & Heat International Markets Hydro power Electricity – High Volt. Electricity (purchased) Mech. work Steel Wood chips District heating from CHP District heating (purchased)) Heat Comf. temp. Primary energy Secondary energy Final Energy Useful energy Services/ Goods TIMES-Sweden a national ESOM
  11. 11. 17 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 MilliontonnesCO2 CLIMATE sc New modelling runs with improved biomass description, and included additional biofuel and industrial options. -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Com & Residential Agriculture Transport Industry (non-ETS) Supply Industry (ETS) Electricity & DH BECC Commercial& Residential Comparing resulting CO2-emissions from TIMES-Sweden, before (left) and after (right) implementing a more detailed description of biomass + additional fossil fuel replacement.
  12. 12. 18 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 MilliontonnesCO2 CLIMATE sc New modelling runs with improved biomass description, and included additional biofuel and industrial options. -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Com & Residential Agriculture Transport Industry (non-ETS) Supply Industry (ETS) Electricity & DH BECC Commercial& Residential  By improving the technology representation  the CO2-emission reduction path differ significant.  Fundamental new technologies is entering the arena  important to update accordingly.
  13. 13. 19 TIMES-Sweden: How is transportations described? Transportation modes No behaviour introduced Fuel production • Refineries (fossil fuels), • Integrated biofuel prod within old ref, • Integrated biofuel prod within industries, • Stand alone biofuel plants. • Combination of biofuel, district heating and electricity production. • Electricity generation. (Don’t have hydrogen in present model). Different kinds of biofuels • Biodiesel (TRA) • Biogas (TRA) • Bio DME (TRA) • Ethanol (TRA) • Bio FT-diesel (TRA) • Bio methanol (TRA) • (H2 for transport gasuous (TRA)) • (H2 for transport liquid (TRA))   EXPORT Electricity Heat Commercial Residential Industry D E M A N D U S E F U L E N E R G Y P R I M A R Y S U P P L Y Transport Agriculture Policy Instruments Emissions IMPORT Electri- city & Heat International Markets TIMES-Sweden a national ESOM Aviation International PJ Aviation Domestic PJ Road.Bus.Intercity. Million_Pkm Road.Bus.Urban. Million_Pkm Road.Car.Long.Distance Million_Pkm Road.Car.Short.Distance Million_Pkm Road.Freight.Light Million_Tkm Road.Freight.Heavy Million_Tkm Road.Moto. Million_Pkm Navigation.Generic. PJ Navigation.Generic.Bunker PJ Rail.Freight. Million_Tkm Rail.Passengers.Light. Million_Pkm Rail.Passengers.Heavy. Million_PkmReally simple,  too simple? More biofuels compared with average model
  14. 14. Scenario Analysis & Some Results
  15. 15. Scenarios: Demand and Prices 2. Transportarbete efterfrågan 3. Car fleet 7. Fossil fuel prices (imp/export priser) 8. Forest based  Biomassa (potential  of residuals) Scenario REF: Transport  demand in line with official projections (Swedish EPA &  Energy agency,  2017) Extrem‐WC:  Scenario  ’Basprognos’  from  Trafikverket  (2018) Extrem‐BC:  Scenario  ’Transporteffek tivare samhälle’ from  ÅF (2018) Modeled  endogenousl y by the  model. Exogenously  given for  year 2030,  according to  BM scenario  in (Algers,  2017) Exogenously  given for  year 2030,  according to  BM‐techup scenario in  (Algers,  2017) High =  "Current  policies" in  table 4 in  IEA (2017) Reference =  "New  Policies" in  table 4 in  IEA (2017) Low =  "Sustainabl e  developme nt" in table  4 in IEA  (2017) Referenc e (High productio n/harvest ing) Low (Low productio n/harvest ing) Baseline X X X X Extrem ‐ WC X X X X Extrem ‐ BC X X X X Bio 1 X X X X Bio 2 X X X X Vehicle 1 X X X X Vehicle 2 X X X X Vehicle 3 X X X X
  16. 16. Scenarios: Policies 1. Climate Targets (CO2‐emission targets) 5. Policy: FF‐Reduction obligation system (Reduktionsplikt) Scenario A: Meet the  Overall Target  (2045) and the  Transport  target (2030)  (=restriction in  the model) B: Not  necessary  meet any of  the targets  (= no  restriction  in the  models) E: Meet the  Overall  Target  (2045)  (=restriction  in the  model) F: Meet the  Transport  target (2030)  (=restriction  in the model) C: Not  necessary  meet any  of the  targets,  NO fuel‐ reduction ‐system D: Meet the  targets, NO  fuel‐ reduction‐ system Separat e  systems  for  diesel  and  gasoline Joint  systems  for  diesel  and  gasoline Only inlcude biofuels in  diesel‐ &  gasolin‐ pumps Include  all  biofuels  for road  transpo rations Target  in 2030  (%) Biogas  include d in the  system Baseline scenario A B E F C D X ‐ X 40 Extrem ‐ WC A B E F C D X ‐ X 40 Extrem ‐ BC A B E F C D X ‐ X 40 Bio 1 A B E F C D X ‐ X 30 Bio 2 A B E F C D X ‐ X 40 Vehicle 1 A B E F C D X ‐ X 40 Vehicle 2 A B E F C D X ‐ X 40 Vehicle 3 A B E F C D X ‐ X 40
  17. 17. Key assumption • Assume present taxes, electric certificate system and EU-ETS • Main biomass is forest residuals and bi-products from the industry (biomass potential derived from forest models). • No import of biofuels after 2020 (at present >80% import, even though large resources exist, but this rely on newer technologies) • BECCS <6.5 M ton CO2
  18. 18. The car fleet in 2025 (1000s vehicles) 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Bio 1A Bio 1B Bio 2A Bio 2B Extrem Best Case A Extrem Best Case B Extrem Worst Case A Extrem Worst Case B Fordon 2A Fordon 2AÖ Fordon 2B Fordon 3A Fordon 3AÖ Fordon 3B Grundscenario A Grundscenario B Grundscenario B +2045 mål Grundscenario B +TRAmål Grundscenario C Grundscenario C +TRAmål 2025 BEV Biofuel Biogas Diesel Gasoline HEV/PHEV diesel HEV/PHEV gasoline BEV Biofuel Biogas Diesel Gasoline HEV/PHEV diese
  19. 19. The car fleet in 2030 (1000s vehicles) 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 Bio 1A Bio 1B Bio 2A Bio 2B Extrem Best Case A Extrem Best Case B Extrem Worst Case A Extrem Worst Case B Fordon 2A Fordon 2AÖ Fordon 2B Fordon 3A Fordon 3AÖ Fordon 3B Grundscenario A Grundscenario B Grundscenario B +2045 mål Grundscenario B +TRAmål Grundscenario C Grundscenario C +TRAmål 2030 BEV Biofuel Biogas Diesel Gasoline HEV/PHEV diesel HEV/PHEV gasoline H2 BEV Biofuel Biogas Diesel Gasoline HEV/PHEV diese
  20. 20. The car fleet in 2035 (1000s vehicles) 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 Bio 1A Bio 1B Bio 2A Bio 2B Extrem Best Case A Extrem Best Case B Extrem Worst Case A Extrem Worst Case B Fordon 2A Fordon 2AÖ Fordon 2B Fordon 3A Fordon 3AÖ Fordon 3B Grundscenario A Grundscenario B Grundscenario B +2045 mål Grundscenario B +TRAmål Grundscenario C Grundscenario C +TRAmål 2035 BEV Biofuel Biogas Diesel Gasoline HEV/PHEV diesel HEV/PHEV gasoline H2 BEV Biofuel Biogas Diesel Gasoline HEV/PHEV diese
  21. 21. The car fleet in 2040 (1000s vehicles) 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 Bio 1A Bio 1B Bio 2A Bio 2B Extrem Best Case A Extrem Best Case B Extrem Worst Case A Extrem Worst Case B Fordon 2A Fordon 2AÖ Fordon 2B Fordon 3A Fordon 3AÖ Fordon 3B Grundscenario A Grundscenario B Grundscenario B +2045 mål Grundscenario B +TRAmål Grundscenario C Grundscenario C +TRAmål 2040 BEV Biofuel Biogas Diesel Gasoline HEV/PHEV diesel HEV/PHEV gasoline H2 BEV Biofuel Biogas Diesel Gasoline HEV/PHEV diese
  22. 22. The car fleet in 2045 (1000s vehicles) 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Bio 1A Bio 1B Bio 2A Bio 2B Extrem Best Case A Extrem Best Case B Extrem Worst Case A Extrem Worst Case B Fordon 2A Fordon 2AÖ Fordon 2B Fordon 3A Fordon 3AÖ Fordon 3B Grundscenario A Grundscenario B Grundscenario B +2045 mål Grundscenario B +TRAmål Grundscenario C Grundscenario C +TRAmål 2045 BEV BEV BEV Biofuel Biogas Diesel Gasoline HEV/PHEV diese
  23. 23. City buses in each scenario 2030 vs 2045   Bio 1A Bio 1B Bio 2A Bio 2B Extrem Best Case A Extrem Best Case B Extrem Worst Case A Extrem Worst Case B Fordon 2A Fordon 2B Fordon 3A Fordon 3B Grundscenario A Grundscenario B Grundscenario C Buss (lokal) 2030 BEV Biofuel Biogas Diesel Gasoline HEV/PHEV diesel Bio 1A Bio 1B Bio 2A Bio 2B Extrem Best Case A Extrem Best Case B Extrem Worst Case A Extrem Worst Case B Fordon 2A Fordon 2B Fordon 3A Fordon 3B Grundscenario A Grundscenario B Grundscenario C Buss (lokal) 2045 BEV Biofuel Biogas Diesel Gasoline HEV/PHEV diese
  24. 24. Regional buses in each scenario 2030 vs 2045     Bio 1A Bio 1B Bio 2A Bio 2B Extrem Best Case A Extrem Best Case B Extrem Worst Case A Extrem Worst Case B Fordon 2A Fordon 2B Fordon 3A Fordon 3B Grundscenario A Grundscenario B Grundscenario C Buss (regional) 2030 Biofuel Biogas Diesel Gasoline Bio 1A Bio 1B Bio 2A Bio 2B Extrem Best Case A Extrem Best Case B Extrem Worst Case A Extrem Worst Case B Fordon 2A Fordon 2B Fordon 3A Fordon 3B Grundscenario A Grundscenario B Grundscenario C Buss (regional) 2045 BEV Biofuel Biogas Diesel Gasoline HEV/PHEV diese
  25. 25. Final energy demand by Fuel type 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 TWh Final energy demand in Transport sector by Fuel (TWh) Electricity Biofuels Biogas Natural gas Oil Diesel Gasoline
  26. 26. 32 Takeaways • Useful to create sets of couple-scenarios (with/without climate targets) • Even a basic TIMES model of the comprehensive national energy system can capture vehicle-shifts in a decant way (of course not fully). • Biofuels can be produced in many different ways, as well as it can be used for many different purposes (including exporting to other countries). Important to capture the entire biofuel route. • Extensive interactions with the analysist at the Swedish environmental protection agency. - Discussed what should be analysed - Discussed what should be presented - Scrutinized the result with new eyes  Takes time, but provides more robust results and insights
  27. 27. Thank you for the attention Anna.Krook-Riekkola@ltu.se

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