Green hydrogen trade from North Africa to Europe: optional long-term scenarios with the JRC-EU-TIMES model Ms. Maria Cristina Pinto, RSE - Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico, Italy Ms. Maria Cristina Pinto, RSE - Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico, Italy 16–17th november 2023, Turin, Italy, etsap meeting, etsap winter workshop, semi-annual meeting, november 2023, Politecnico di Torino Lingotto, Torino

1. 1
Green hydrogen trade from North Africa to Europe:
optional long-term scenarios with the JRC-EU-TIMES model
Pinto Maria Cristina (RSE, Milan)*, Simões Sofia G. (LNEG, Lisbon), Fortes Patrícia (NOVA FCT, Lisbon)
*mariacristina.pinto@rse-web.it
IEA-ETSAP Meeting
Turin, 17th November 2023

2. 2
Research context and objective
Methodology and instruments
Results and discussion
Main remarks and future work

3. 3
Research context
Green hydrogen
as key driver of
the transition:
opportunities to
be enanched and
challenges to be
addressed
• No announced clean H2 projects
growing fast worldwide.
• Governments foster national
strategies & funding for large-
scale projects.
• Ambitious growth for
electrolysers’ manufacture.
• Measures needed to support
clean H2 uptake.
• Private sector involved at mostly
on small scale project.
• International cooperations are
growing but demand signals are
not clear.
• Scaling-up clean H2 is the key
enabler to support trade.
• Increase in equipment/financial
costs, due to inflation.
• Slow implementation of support
schemes delaying investment.
• Increased H2 demand but
concentrated in traditional
applications.
• Measures for clean H2 uptake not
sufficient to support
decarbonization.
• Regulation and certification are
still barriers.
• Key factors impacting clean H2
uptake: (i) “hard” as production
and transport costs, and (ii)
“soft” as geopolitics, trade
dependencies and policies.

4. 4
FOCUSING ON
INTERNATIONAL
COOPERATION
Focus on green hydrogen
import from North Africa
as challenging and
valuable opportunity for
EU long-term ambitious
targets.
WORKING ON
UNCERTAINTY
Uncertainty of
parameters involving
production potentials and
costs, alternative
transport pathways and
financial risks affect
trade effectiveness and
competitiveness.
TARGETING
COMPETITIVENESS
THROUGH
UNCERTAINTY
Study to what extent
green hydrogen imports
from North Africa could
support the European
carbon-neutrality target
for 2050.
Research context and objective

5. 5
1. Availability of volumes for trade
Analysis of local strategies of North African
countries involved in the assessment.
3. Alternative transport pathways
Elaboration of costs for different transport options
through the definition of ad-hoc routes from North
Africa to Europe.
2. Alternative production pathways
Calculation of the Levelized Cost of Hydrogen to
address different technological pathways for
production and financial risks.
Starting from the JRC-EU-TIMES (JET) model [1,2], specific settings are studied
to elaborate ad-hoc scenarios:
Methodology and instruments
[1] S. Simoes, W. Nijs, P. Ruiz, A. Sgobbi, D. Radu, P. Bolat, C. Thiel e S. Peteves, «The JRC-EU-TIMES model: assessing the long-term role
of the SET Plan Energy Technologies. Report EUR 26292 EN» 2013
[2] S. Simoes, W. Nijs, P. Ruiz-Castello, A. Sgobbi e C. Thiel, «Comparing policy routes for low-carbon power technology deployment in EU –
an energy system analysis» Energy Policy, vol. 101, p. pp. 353–365, 2017
To discussion
of scenarios
From setting
of scenarios
Importable H2 volumes
Production modes
and costs of
importable H2
Transport
modes and
costs of
importable
H2

6. 6
Methodology and instruments
[1] S. Simoes, W. Nijs, P. Ruiz, A. Sgobbi, D. Radu, P. Bolat, C. Thiel e S. Peteves, «The JRC-EU-TIMES model: assessing the long-term role of the SET Plan Energy Technologies. Report EUR 26292 EN» 2013
[2] S. Simoes, W. Nijs, P. Ruiz-Castello, A. Sgobbi e C. Thiel, «Comparing policy routes for low-carbon power technology deployment in EU – an energy system analysis» Energy Policy, vol. 101, p. pp. 353–365, 2017
Primary energy supply:
Mining, import,
renewables
Refineries and
electricity generation
Transport: road passengers and
freight, rail, aviation Int+Gen,
navigation Gen+bunk
Industry: iron&steel, Non-Fe metals,
Cl and NH4+; Cu; Al; Other chemicals;
Cement, Glass, Pulp&paper
Commercial: large and small
Agriculture
Residential: rural, urban, apartment
Oil, coal, gas
import prices
(EU Energy
Roadmap 2050)
EU primary
energy potentia:
hydro, wind,
solar, biomass,
biogas, geo
(POLES and other)
Demand projections (via
GEM-E3) end-use energy
services and materials
Policy constraints: feed-in,
green-cert, subsidies
BY and new energy technologies: capacity, availability, efficiency,
life, costs, emission factors
Minimize
total system
costs
ENERGY
SUPPLY AND
DEMAND
TECHNOLOGIES
Final energy
prices
Materials and
energy flows
Emissions
Costs
Installed
capacities
CO2 EMISSION
REDUCTION
TARGET
95% less CO2
emissions in 2050
than 1990 levels
is the long-term
objective CO2 cap
run in this
analysis.
HYDROGEN
TRADE
Possibility to
import hydrogen
from Algeria,
Morocco and
Tunisia to EU+
(European MS plus
UK, Switzerland,
Iceland and
Norway).
EU+ GREEN
HYDROGEN
PRODUCTION
Updated
electrolysis costs
and possibility to
exploit off-grid PV
plants as optional
electricity
production
option.

7. 7
Methodology and instruments
HYDROGEN
TRADE
Possibility to
import hydrogen
from Algeria,
Morocco and
Tunisia to EU+
(European MS plus
UK, Switzerland,
Iceland and
Norway).
From Algeria
by pipelines
1
From Algeria
by ships
2
From Morocco
by pipelines
3
From Morocco
by ships
4
From Tunisia
by pipelines
5
From Tunisia
by ships
6
Six new processes are
added to the model:
Working on:
1. Importable H2 volumes
2. Production modes and
costs of importable H2
3. Transport modes and
costs of importable H2

8. 8
Methodology and instruments – Setting of scenarios
• Algeria: declaration on national
export-oriented H2 strategy to Europe
[3].
• Morocco: national green H2 roadmap
[4] sets values for H2 exports.
• Tunisia: announced H2 roadmap for
March 2023, not published yet.
Government announcement based on
the results of the EHB initiative [5,6].
Availability for trade: Analysis of local strategies
[3] L. Collins, «Algeria aims to supply Europe with 10% of its clean hydrogen needs by 2040 in new national H2 roadmap,» March 2023. [Online].
[4] Royaume of Morocco, «Feuille de route: Hydrogène Vert, Vecteur de Transition Energetique et de Croissance Durable. (in French),» January 2021.
[5] Agency Tunis Afrique Press, «Tunisia can export over 5.5mln tonnes of green hydrogen to Europe by 2050,» 26 May 2023. [Online].
[6] European Hydrogen Backbone (EHB), «Five hydrogen supply corridors for Europe in 2030,» 2022.
30 to 40 TWh of H2 and hydrogen-based fuels
exported to Europe by 2040 [3].
46 to 92 TWh of H2 and hydrogen-based
fuels to be exported to Europe by 2040 (92
to 230 TWh by 2050) [4].
180 to 200 TWh of H2 exported to Europe
by 2050 [5,6].

9. 9
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
PV+ALK PV+PEM WO+ALK WO+PEM
€
2010
/kg
H2
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
PV+ALK PV+PEM WO+ALK WO+PEM
€
2010
/kg
H2
Methodology and instruments – Setting of scenarios
Alternative production pathways: Calculation of LCOH
LCOH calculated as the average of
four technological combinations:
• PV+alkaline,
• PV+PEM,
• Wind onshore + alkaline,
• Wind onshore + PEM.
An optimistic and pessimistic case:
• WACC of 3%,
• increase of +5% to country-
specific WACC from IRENA
report [7].
[7] International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), «The cost of financing for renewable power (Data Appendix),» Abu Dhabi, 2023.
[2030]
[2050]

10. 10
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
€
2010
/kg
H2
distance [km]
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
€
2010
/kg
H2
distance [km]
[2030] [2050]
Methodology and instruments – Setting of scenarios
Alternative transport pathways: Elaboration of routes and costs
• By pipelines: averages on repurposed and new ones.
• By shipping: liquefied H2 shipping (more interesting if electricity costs are lower).
• Cost estimated starting from datasets [8,9].
[8] International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), «Global hydrogen trade to meet the 1.5°C climate goal: Part II – Technology Review of Hydrogen Carriers,» Abu Dhabi, 2022.
[9] European Hydrogen Backbone, «A European hydrogen infrastructure vision covering 28 countries,» 2022.

11. 11
Methodology and instruments – Elaboration of scenarios
Y
S0
N
S1
S2
By pipeline
By shipping
Optimistic
case
S3
S4
By pipeline
By shipping
Import
of
green
H2 from
North
Africa?
Pessimistic
case
To discussion
of scenarios
From setting
of scenarios
Importable H2 volumes
Production modes
and costs of
importable H2
Transport
modes and
costs of
importable
H2

12. 12
Methodology and instruments – Elaboration of scenarios
Traded H2 volumes [MtH2] Production cost [€2010/kgH2] Transport cost [€2010/kgH2]
2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050
- - - - - -
ALG: 0.30 MtH2
MOR: 0.65 MtH2
TUN: 0.5 MtH2
ALG: 3.0 MtH2
MOR: 6.89 MtH2
TUN: 5.5 MtH2
ALG: 2.15 €/kgH2
MOR: 2.08 €/kgH2
TUN: 2.28 €/kgH2
ALG: 1.49 €/kgH2
MOR: 1.43 €/kgH2
TUN: 1.57 €/kgH2
On. pip.: 0.13 €/kgH2/1000km
Off. pip.: 0.20 €/kgH2/1000km
On. pip.: 0.08 €/kgH2/1000km
Off. pip.: 0.12 €/kgH2/1000km
LH2 ships: @1000 km: 2.61 €/kgH2
@6000 km: 3.19 €/kgH2
LH2 ships: @1000 km: 0.53 €/kgH2
@6000 km: 0.65 €/kgH2
ALG: 0.23 MtH2
MOR: 0.31 MtH2
TUN: 0.2 MtH2
ALG: 2.25 MtH2
MOR: 2.75 MtH2
TUN: 2.8 MtH2
ALG: 4.82 €/kgH2
MOR: 3.7 €/kgH2
TUN: 4.67 €/kgH2
ALG: 3.34 €/kgH2
MOR: 2.56 €/kgH2
TUN: 3.24 €/kgH2
On. pip.: 0.24 €/kgH2/1000km
Off. pip.: 0.37 €/kgH2/1000km
On. pip.: 0.15 €/kgH2/1000km
Off. pip.: 0.23 €/kgH2/1000km
LH2 ships: @1000 km: 4.18 €/kgH2
@6000 km: 5.12 €/kgH2
LH2 ships: @1000 km: 0.85 €/kgH2
@6000 km: 1.04 €/kgH2
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4

13. 13
Results and discussions
Q1
How much will Europe rely on H2 trade from North
Africa? How do the transport options affect the trade?
Q2
Which EU+ consumption sectors are affected by H2
from North Africa?
Q3
Which countries are impacted by H2 trade from North
Africa and how?
EU+ production vs North Africa
import; pipelines and shipping
trade
Consumption and conversion of
H2 in Europe
Countries involved and impacted
by North African trade

14. 14
Results and discussions
Q1
How much will Europe rely on H2 trade from North
Africa? How do the transport options affect the trade?
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
2030
2040
2050
EU+ production and import from North Africa
EU+ production Import Algeria Import Morocco Import Tunisia
*The domestic production is very optimistic; data are under review; in any case all the hydrogen from North Africa is imported by 2050.
The “impact” of North Africa is at least 10%, it can be more.

15. 15
Results and discussions
Q1
How much will Europe rely on H2 trade from North
Africa? How do the transport options affect the trade?
S1 [2050] S2 [2050]
Production by WACC 3% and transport by pipelines at
low costs case.
Production by WACC 3% and transport by LH2
shipping at low costs case.

16. 16
Results and discussions
Q2
Which EU+ consumption sectors are affected by H2
from North Africa?
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Fuel cell Heat Synfuels
[PJ]
Consumption of H2 - indirect
[2050]
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Transport Other sectors
[PJ]
Consumption of H2 - direct
[2050]

17. 17
Results and discussions
Q3
Which countries are impacted by H2 trade from North
Africa and how?
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Production
EU
import
NA
import
Consumption
EU
export
delta
[PJ]
H2 balance [2050]
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Production
EU
import
NA
import
Consumption
EU
export
delta
[PJ]
H2 balance [2050]
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
Production
EU
import
NA
import
Consumption
EU
export
delta
[PJ]
H2 balance [2050]

18. 18
Main remarks and future work
In the short-term (2030) the only affordable option consist of pipelines for lower WACC,
while in 2050 both transport options are cost-effective to support the EU+
decarbonization.
Focusing on the consumption, the indirect use of hydrogen is the most affected by North
Arica imports: consumption of synfuels in transport and of heat in industry increase up
to 30%.
Most impacted countries are Spain and Italy (for transport by pipeline) and the UK, the
Netherlands and Poland (for shipping).
Future work: (i) interplay of hydrogen and DAC for decarbonization purposes, (ii) focus
on specific hard-to-abate sectors, (iii) include modelling of off-grid onshore wind plants
to input electrolysers, (iv) evolution of electrolysers.
All the importable hydrogen from North Africa is exploited by EU+ to reach the carbon-
neutrality target by 2050, also in case of higher costs due to lower cooperation, market
weakness and financial risks.

19. 19
Thank you for your attention
IEA-ETSAP Meeting
Turin, 17th November 2023
Pinto Maria Cristina (RSE, Milan)*, Simões Sofia (LNEG, Lisbon), Fortes Patricia (NOVA FCT, Lisbon)
*mariacristina.pinto@rse-web.it