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Status of US CCS projects and data available

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Status of US CCS projects and data available

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Status of US CCS projects and data available

  1. 1. NETL Modeling of CCS ETSAP Workshop session: ‘CCS IN ENERGY SCENARIOS’ July 11, 2017 Presented by Chris Nichols, Energy Markets Analysis Team, Systems Engineering and Analysis
  2. 2. 2 • Introduction of the Systems Engineering and Analysis (SEA) Directorate at NETL and how we integrate engineering analysis to market modeling • Discussion of data available and translation into model inputs • Review some relevant model run results • Conclusions and on-going work Overview
  3. 3. 3 NETL Enduring Core Competencies Computational Engineering High Performance Computing Data Analytics Materials Engineering & Manufacturing Structural & Functional Design, Synthesis & Performance Geological & Environmental Systems Air, Water & Geology Understanding & Mitigation Energy Conversion Engineering Component & Device Design & Validation Systems Engineering & Analysis Process & System Optimization, Validation & Economics Effective Resource Development ~ Efficient Energy Conversion ~ Environmental Sustainability
  4. 4. 4 Energy Systems Analysis Systems Engineering & Analysis (SEA) Teams and Scope Process Systems Engineering Research Energy Process Analysis Energy Markets Analysis Energy Economy Modeling and Impact Assessment • Enhanced fossil energy representation • Multi-model scenario/policy analysis • Infrastructure, energy-water Resource Availability and Cost Modeling • CO2 storage (saline and EOR) • Fossil fuel extraction • Rare earth elements • General subsurface technology evaluation and support Grid modeling and analysis Environmental Life Cycle Analysis Energy Process Design, Analysis, and Cost Estimation • Plant-level modeling, performance assessment • Cost estimation for plant-level systems • General plant-level technology evaluation and support • Economic impact assessment • General regulatory, market and financial expertise • Process synthesis, design, optimization, intensification • Steady state and dynamic process model development • Uncertainty quantification • Advanced process control Design, optimization, and modeling framework to be expanded to all SEA “systems”
  5. 5. 5 Assessing Program Portfolio Impacts: Coal Program Example Baseline Data & Model Development Set R&D Goals and Evaluate Progress Project deployment of Technologies Estimate Potential Benefits of RD&D NETL Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants NETL CO2 Capture, Transport, Storage and Utilization - National Energy Modeling System (CTUS-NEMS) • Detailed, transparent account of plant information • Key resource for government, academia and industry • Adopted by EIA; used in AEO’s 2014/15/16 • Facilitates and encourages EPSA interactions NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model (onshore and offshore) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 0 10 20 30 40 Mcf/STB Years CO2 Utilization Factor ver 1 ver 2 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 0 10 20 30 40 Fraction Years CO2 Retention Factor ver 1 ver 2 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 0 10 20 30 40MSTB Years Annual Oil Production ver 1 ver 2 Borehole bottom locations mapped by play name NETL CO2 Prophet Model Net Pay Gross Pay Oil Bearing Formation Gas Cap Aquifer/ ROZ Oil Zone
  6. 6. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 No RD&D RD&D No RD&D RD&D Gigawatts NG Retrofits New Gas CCS Coal Retrofits New Coal CCS Assessing Program Portfolio Impacts: Baseline Data & Model Development Set and Evaluate Progress to R&D Goals Project Deployment of Technologies Estimate Potential Benefits of CCRP RD&D Estimate Potential Benefits of RD&D New CCS Capacity and Associated Captured CO2 2025 2040 No Captured CO2 New NG CCS New NG CCS Coal Retrofits New Coal CCS 57 MM tonnes/year CO2 Captured 114 MM tonnes/year CO2 Captured 291 MM tonnes/year CO2 Captured NG Retrofits New NG CCS Coal Retrofits U.S. Benefits of the Program, Cumulative through 2040 Benefit Area Metric Economic Growth Total Electricity Expenditure Savings Employment Income Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Environmental Sustainability CO2 Captured at Coal and Gas CCS Facilities Energy Security Additional Domestic Oil Production via EOR $
  7. 7. 7 • With state-of-the-art technology, adding 90% CO2 capture and storage (CCS) significantly increases the cost of electricity (COE) • 45-65% for NGCC • ~75% for pulverized coal (PC) • Lower capture rates for PC plants decrease the COE penalty, but result in a higher cost of capture • e.g., $87/tonne versus $58/tonne for 35% and 90% capture, respectively • Due in part to diseconomies of scale • RD&D is needed to reduce the costs of advanced coal power with CCS NETL Cost and Performance Baseline Summary Results 1 T&S = transport (100 km) and storage in a Midwest saline formation 2 +30%/-15% uncertainty range; different finance structure utilized for non-capture and capture plants 3 Fully-loaded design rates; does not account for start-up, shutdown, performance degradation between maintenance, part-load operation, etc. 4 Excludes CO2 T&S; relative to non-capture NGCC and non-capture supercritical PC design for NGCC and PC capture designs, respectively 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 COE,$/MWh(2011$) CO₂ T&S Fuel Variable Fixed Capital $143 $127 $99 $82 $87 $58 $101 $70 $43 $71$6.13 MMBTU $4 MMBTU $8 MMBTU 1 2 Plant Type NGCC Supercritical PC Plant Capture Rate 0% 90% 0% 16% 35% 90% CO2 Emissions3 (lb/MWh-gross) 773 82 1,618 1,400 1,100 183 Efficiency (HHV) 51.5% 45.7% 40.7% 39.2% 37.4% 32.5% Cost of Capture4 ($/tonne) $71 $124 $87 $58 Source: NETL
  8. 8. 8 Fossil Energy – Coal Research Program Goals Driving Down the Cost of Electricity of Coal Power with CCS 0% Reduction 20% Reduction 30% Reduction 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 State-of-the-Art 2025 Demo 2030 Demo Goals are for greenfield plants. Costs include compression to 2,215 psia, but exclude CO2 transport and storage costs. Cost of Electricity Reduction Targets Transformational Technology IGCC or Supercritical PC 2nd-Generation Technology COERelativetoToday’s CoalwithCapture(%)
  9. 9. 9 Driving Down the Cost of Electricity of Coal Power with CCS AdvancedIntegrated GasificationFuelCell Advanced Oxy-Combustion AdvancedIGCC Post-Combustion Capture 70 90 110 130 150 170 BaselineAmine Adv.Capture AUSCSteam Adv.CO2 Compression Conventional Financing COE (2011$/MWh) Sorbent Membrane 70 90 110 130 150 170 Baseline Adv.Hydrogen Turbine ITM WarmGas Cleanup H2Membrane 85%Availability Conventional Financing COE (2011$/MWh) 70 90 110 130 150 170 ReferenceIGFC ←Degradation ←Overpotential 85%Availability Enhanced… ←SOFCCost →InverterEff. CatalyticGasifier COE (2011$/MWh) 70 90 110 130 150 170 Base Base+Adv.Recycle Base+Adv.Compr. Base+Adv.Cryo… Base+AUSCSteam Base+OxyBoiler Base+O2Memb. 2ndGen Transformational COE (2011$/MWh) “Current and Future Power Generation Technologies: Pathways to Reducing the Cost of Carbon Capture for Coal-fueled Power Plants” (October 2014) http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1876610214026058.
  10. 10. 10 • The AEO2016 Reference case includes a 30% capture coal CCS technology. • The Starting Point case uses AEO2017 assumptions for a 90% capture technology but modified to reflect the absence of Federal R&D. • The first on-line year is assumed to be 2025 and the learning rate is half the rate in the AEO2017 • The Program Goal case assumes success of the CCS R&D program goals that lead to lower capital costs, an early start year, as well as greater efficiency. Coal with CCS Capital Costs
  11. 11. 11 CoalCCSPowerPlantCapitalCost y = 45159x-0.282 R² = 0.9749 LR=18% y = 163428x-0.426 R² = 0.9942 LR=26% y = 33660x-0.271 R² = 0.9934 LR=17% 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 2005USMilliondollars/Gigawatts PJ R3.1.3.0+ EOR, PG, 45Q, H2O R3.1.6.0+ PG R3.1.6.0+ EOR, PG, 45Q, H2O Integration of learning curves with the program goal assumptions. Learning rates for CCS coal power plants in the scenarios with strong CO2 constraints are 17%- 26% and are consistent with literature review Cumulative Coal CCS Electricity Production Integrating “learning by doing” with CCS cost goals
  12. 12. 12 CCS Retrofits of Existing Plants in U.S. • Options for an existing plant in a carbon mitigation scenario 1. Business as usual + pay CO2 emissions penalties 2. Retrofit for CCS with potential to sell CO2 3. Retire and replace with new capacity • CO2 revenue required to incentivize #2 over #1 in the absence of a CO2 tax evaluated • Rapid deployment of 2nd Generation capture technology needed to impact current coal fleet • Transformational capture technology has a role in NGCC CCS retrofits, international coal CCS retrofits 30-year economic life, 75% capacity factor, $75/MWh power price (NEMS 2030 est); nth-of-a-kind cost and 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 CumulativeCoalRetrofitsIncentivized [GWpre-retrofit] Minimum Plant Gate CO2 Revenue Required to Incentivize CCS [$/tonne] State-of-the-Art 2nd Generation 2nd Gen technology reduces coal CO2 capture cost by ~25%
  13. 13. 13 • Using EPA 9R database with MARKAL, we modeled a variety of CO2 control regimes based on EMF 32 scenarios with and without DOE R&D goals susccess: • Rated based CPP • Mass based CPP with high NG price • $25/mt CO2 tax with 5% escalation rate • 80% economy-wide CO2 reduction by 2050 • Meaningful deployments of CCS do not appear in most non-R&D cases, while R&D success does drive large scale deployments Overview of relevant model results
  14. 14. 14 Deployment (G W) 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 New NGC C with C C S 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NGC C C C S retrofits 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 New coal with ccs 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 C oal C C S retrofits 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Biomass with C C S 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 • Sources: MARKAL NETL Power Sector Technological Changes Electricity Generation Mix: CPP Rate Based with CO2 Trading without and with CCS RD&D Goals Scenarios Deployment (G W) 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 New NGC C with C C S 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NGC C C C S retrofits 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 New coal with ccs 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 C oal C C S retrofits 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Biomass with C C S 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
  15. 15. 15 Electricity Generation Mix: CPP Mass Based with high natural gas prices, without and with CCS RD&D Goals Scenarios Deployment (GW) 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 New NGCC with CCS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NGCC CCS retrofits 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 New coal with ccs 0 0 0 0 0 0.02 0.1 Coal CCS retrofits 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Biomass with CCS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Deployment (GW) 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 New NGCC with CCS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NGCC CCS retrofits 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 New coal with ccs 0 0 0 0 11 47 106 Coal CCS retrofits 0 0 3 3 3 0 0 Biomass with CCS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
  16. 16. 16 • Sources: MARKAL NETL Power Sector Technological Changes Electricity Generation Mix: CO2 Taxes at $25/tCO2 and 5% with and without CCS RD&D Goals Scenarios Deployment (G W) 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 New NGC C with C C S 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NGC C C C S retrofits 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 New coal with ccs 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 C oal C C S retrofits 0 22 24 26 26 26 26 Biomass with C C S 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Deployment (G W) 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 New NGC C with C C S 0 0 0 17 34 39 39 NGC C C C S retrofits 0 0 178 182 183 187 187 New coal with ccs 0 0 0 0 19 62 105 C oal C C S retrofits 105 108 121 121 121 121 121 Biomass with C C S 0 0 0 0 1 7 10
  17. 17. 17 • Sources: MARKAL NETL Power Sector Technological Changes Electricity Generation Mix: 80% CO2 Reduction by 2050 and 80% CO2 Reduction by 2050 with CCS RD&D Goals Scenarios Deployment (G W) 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 New NGC C with C C S 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NGC C C C S retrofits 0 51 54 91 91 15 16 New coal with ccs 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 C oal C C S retrofits 8 13 15 11 7 0 0 Biomass with C C S 0 27 62 74 75 75 75 Deployment (G W) 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 New NGC C with C C S 0 0 0 11 11 45 45 NGC C C C S retrofits 0 0 37 109 110 112 112 New coal with ccs 0 0 0 0 14 142 280 C oal C C S retrofits 0 101 177 211 211 212 212 Biomass with C C S 0 0 0 1 47 53 59
  18. 18. 18 • Currently investigating cases of CCS deployment without a CO2 price • EOR integration and tax credits • Examining issues related to existing and new coal units: • Heat rate improvements for existing units • Impact of cycling operations • Economic growth assumptions • Integration of water usage and consumption Continuing work
  19. 19. 19 • CO2 capture, transport and storage are represented in several sectors: oil & gas, electricity, liquid fuels, and the CTUS module allowing for a complete and integrated assessment CCUS Translating theCO2 CTUS-NEMS Model Structure into MARKAL/TIMES OGSM: Oil and Gas Supply Module LFMM: Liquid Fuels Market Module EMM: Electricity Market Module CTUS: Carbon, Transport, Utilization and Storage Module •CompetingPricesfor CO2 BySource •Available CO2 By Source •Demandfor CO2 ByEOR OGSM •PotentialRevenue StreamfromEOR •CO2Suppliedby Gen Unitstoeach OGSM Region •Price of CO2 From Gen Units to eachOGSM Region •Pipeline Infrastructure toSupportCO2 Flows •Cost of transport from source tosinks (EOR and/orSaline Storage) •Cost of Saline Storage CTUSEMM •Potential Revenue StreamfromEOR •CO2 Suppliedby CTL to eachOGSMRegion •Price of CO2 FromCTL to eachOGSMRegion LFMM Costof transport Costof Storage Costof transport Costof Storage Competitive MarketforCO2 Competitive MarketforCO2 CO2 capturedforEORand/or StorageP and Q CO2 forEOR IndustrialCO2 Capture -by individual site aggregatedinto quantity and price bins for each OGSM region
  20. 20. 20 • NETL developed inputs currently used in both CTUS-NEMS and EIA NEMS • Saline Storage Cost: NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model • CO2 Pipeline Transport Cost: NETL CO2 Transport Cost Model • Other Industrial Sources of CO2 for EOR: NETL Carbon Capture Retrofit Database (CCRD) • NETL developed inputs currently used in only CTUS-NEMS • Existing Coal and NGCC Plant CCS Retrofit Cost and Performance: NETL Carbon Capture Retrofit Database (CCRD) • NETL inputs currently being incorporated into only CTUS-NEMS • Offshore Storage: NETL Offshore Saline Storage Cost Model • EOR Type Curves: NETL PROPHET Model • Revised EOR Site Cost: NETL Onshore EOR Cost Model • EOR Offshore Site Cost: NETL Offshore EOR Cost Model • Residual Oil Zone Resources: NETL ROZ Resource Assessments • Default EIA data used elsewhere Data Sources Data Used in FE/NETL CO2 CTUS-NEMS
  21. 21. Solutions for Today | Options for Tomorrow I have seen the future and it is very much like the present, only longer. --Kehlog Albran For more information… Chris Nichols christopher.nichols@netl.doe.gov 304 285-4172
  22. 22. 22 Cost of Capturing CO2 from Industrial Sources Cost Breakdown $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 Ethanol Ammonia Natural Gas Processing Ethylene Oxide Coal-to- Liquids Gas-to- Liquids Refinery Hydrogen Steel/Iron Cement First-year"Breakeven"RequiredCO2SellingPrice (Constant2011USD) Purchased Natural Gas Purchased Power Consumables Variable O&M Fixed O&M CAPEX High Purity CO2 Low Purity CO2

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