Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

The Danish Energy Technology Data Catalogue

244 views

Published on

The Danish Energy Technology Data Catalogue

Published in: Data & Analytics
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

The Danish Energy Technology Data Catalogue

  1. 1. The Danish Energy Technology Catalogues General concept of a energy technology catalogue, the Danish experiences in developing energy technology data catalogues and how it is used Rikke Næraa Danish Energy Agency July 19, 2017Danish Energy Agency Page 1
  2. 2. Outline of presentation • Why common energy data • What is the Danish Energy Technology catalogue? • How is it made? - focus on approach for making technology catalogue – not on specific technologies July 19, 2017Danish Energy Agency Page 2
  3. 3. What is the Danish Energy Technology catalogues? • data sheets containing primarily structured, quantitative data on status and projection of development of costs and efficiencies and other technology specific data. • Data sets for e.g. 2015, 2020, 2030 and 2050 • Qualitative data descriptions Public available July 19, 2017Danish Energy Agency Page 3
  4. 4. What can TCs be used? July 19, 2017Danish Energy Agency Page 4 • Analysis of energy systems, including economic scenario models and total system energy planning. • Simpler analysis of energy technologies, comparative analysis • Common reference point for calculations -"Official" data on energy technologies that "all" stakeholders can agree on. A kind of best estimate. • Should not be used for projection and design of specific energy installations /plants
  5. 5. Examles of used by DEA • ”Energy scenarios for 2020, 2035 and 2050” • Danish Energy Outlook • TIMES-model • … -the backbone of many of our analyses
  6. 6. July 19, 2017Danish Energy Agency Page 6 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Onshorewind (large) Offshore(large) Photovoltatic (large) CHP(Back Pressure, medium)Wood Chips CHP(Back Pressure, medium)Straw CHP(Back Pressure, medium)NG CHP(Extraction, large)Wood Pellets CHP(Extraction, large)Coal CHP,rebuild (Extraction,large) WoodPellets CHP(Extraction, large)NGA €/MWh(2015prices) CO2 cost Fuel cost O&M Investment cost Simple comparison of technologies : Cost of producing 1 kWh of electricity on different technologies
  7. 7. Others July 19, 2017Danish Energy Agency Page 7
  8. 8. The purpose of the TC method to make energy technology data Technology data that can be used for comparisons of different energy technologies that is general accepted of high quality and made in a transparent process and To ensure that the different groups working with energy models in Denmark use the same technology data July 19, 2017Danish Energy Agency Page 8
  9. 9. Purpose of Danish CT To ensure fair competition between the different technologies in analysis and scenarios to make it easier to compare results from different energy models. July 19, 2017Danish Energy Agency Page 9
  10. 10. Guidelines/Instructions July 19, 2017Danish Energy Agency Page 10 To ensure consistency and comparability of data for different technologies and the consistency of the qualitative chapters and the transparency of the data . - Detailed definitions of the parameters e.g. what is included in the efficiency, in the investments cost, in O&M cost, at what temperature is district heating delivered and returned. - How to write the qualitative sections The relatively detailed guideline should also help the model makers on how the data could be used in their model
  11. 11. Overview of categories of energy technology data in the catalogues July 19, 2017Danish Energy Agency Page 11 • Electricity and District Heating • Individual Heating Plants • Conversion of biomass (and other RE) to bio fuels • Vehicle technologies (cars, trucks, busses, trains and planes) Catalogues in proces • Hydrogen technologies • Grids ( el, gas and heat) • Energy Storage At the moment partly included in other catalogues
  12. 12. The qualitative part of the technology chapters Qualitative description (should be short and not detailed) • Brief technology description • Input • Output • Typical capacities • Space requirement • Regulation ability and other power system services • Advantages/disadvantages • Environment Examples of market standard technology • Research and development perspectives • Prediction of performance and costs • Uncertainty • Additional remarks • References
  13. 13. What to cover in TCs? Quantitative description • Data Sheet • Data for 2015, 2020, 2030 and 2050 • To be included direct in the databases for the modelling / analyses • Notes • References
  14. 14. July 19, 2017Danish Energy Agency Page 14 Technology 2015 2020 2030 2050 Note Ref Energy/technical data Lower Upper Lower Upper Generating capacity for one unit (MWe) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Electricity efficiency (condensation mode for extraction plants), net (%), name plate 26 27 28 29 24 26 24 26 1 Electricity efficiency (condensation mode for extraction plants), net (%), annual average 24 25 26 27 21 27 21 30 A Cb coefficient (50o C/100o C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 3 Cv coefficient (50o C/100o C) NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA J Forced outage (%) 9 9 9 9 8 10 8 10 G 1+5 Planned outage (weeks per year) 2 2 2 2 2 4 2 4 H 5 Technical lifetime (years) 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 6 Construction time (years) 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.7 2.2 2.7 6 Space requirement (1000m2/MWth) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.25 0.35 0.25 0.35 5+7 Primary regulation (% per 30 seconds) 3 4 5 6 3 5 3 5 K 5 Secondary regulation (% per minute) 3 4 4 4 3 5 3 5 6 Minimum load (% of full load) 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 6 Warm start-up time (hours) 2 2 2 2 1.5 2.5 1.5 2.5 6+5 Cold start-up time (hours) 6 6 6 6 5 7 5 7 6+5 SOx desulphuring (%) 94 95 96 97 92 97 94 99 D 3+6 NOX (g per GJ fuel) 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 E 7 CH4 (g per GJ fuel) 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 F 3;2;2;2 N2O (g per GJ fuel) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 F 3;2;2;2 Nominal investment (M€/MWe) 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.7 6 4.7 6 B 4+5 - of which equipment - - - - - - - - H - of which installation - - - - - - - - H Fixed O&M (€/MWe/year) 110,000 105,000 99,000 94,000 100,000 130,000 100,000 130,000 I Variable O&M (€/MWeh) 11 10 10 9 10 13 10 13 I Fixed O&M (€/MW/year) -Total O&M 157,000 149,000 142,000 134,000 134,000 170,000 120,000 170,000 C 1 Regulation ability Environment Financial data Technology specific data 09 Biomass CHP,Small steam turbine, Woodchips Uncertainty (2020) Uncertainty (2050)
  15. 15. How is the data in the TC provided; 2015 data - From specific projects recently build /contracted - National register /statistics - Expert assessments - National studies /surveys - International studies/ /surveys July 19, 2017Danish Energy Agency Page 15
  16. 16. Marked standard not BAT Market standards (if established): - performance and cost data of recent installed versions of the technology in Denmark or the most similar countries in relation to the specific technology in Northern Europe for the 2015 estimates. July 19, 2017Danish Energy Agency Page 16
  17. 17. “Bottom up metode” - braking down the investment cost example offshore wind July 19, 2017Danish Energy Agency Page 17 Figure 6: Breakdown of costs for offshore wind farms [ref. 19, 20, 21]. The cost of environmental assessment is a part of the Planning & development and financing cost component 17%
  18. 18. Economy of scale The cost of one unit for larger plants is usually less than that for one unit for smaller plants 𝐶1 𝐶2 = 𝑃1 𝑃2 𝑎 • Cn = Investment cost of plant n (e.g. in million EUR) • Pn = Power generation capacity of plant n (e.g. in MW) • 𝑎 = Proportionality factor, typical value 0.6-0.7 The plants should essentially be identical, only significant difference is in size
  19. 19. Energy efficiency • Technical experts • National register • Data through international sources, e.g. IEA • Evaluation in relation to national context. July 19, 2017Danish Energy Agency Page 19
  20. 20. Notes • Notes are made to add further detail to data • Notes is important to ensure transparency – especially if references not used directly July 19, 2017Danish Energy Agency Page 20
  21. 21. Data for 2020, 2030 and 2050 Prediction of future data Aiming at no empty cells, prefer the same ”wrong” guess
  22. 22. Data for 2020, 2030 and 2050 Prediction of efficiencies, few and not well established methods Two approaches: • Expert judgements – especially for identifying barriers • Reference technologies giving upper and lower limits
  23. 23. Data for 2020, 2030 and 2050 Prediction of costs: Examples of methodes • Simple learning curve (with fixed yearly improvement) • bottom-up approaches • expert judgements
  24. 24. Simple learning curve approach
  25. 25. Examples of rapid not predictiable changes in technology data Hvornår skal vi reagere - Vurdering er det enlig svale eller tendes 19. juli 2017 Side 26Energistyrelsen
  26. 26. Examples of rapid not predictiable changes in technology data Hvornår skal vi reagere - Vurdering er det enlig svale eller tendes 19. juli 2017 Side 27Energistyrelsen X Krigers Flak
  27. 27. Example of lack in the capacity of making predictions PV Large ground mounted July 19, 2017Danish Energy Agency Page 28
  28. 28. Example of lack in the capacity of making predictions Off shore wind July 19, 2017Danish Energy Agency Page 29
  29. 29. The steps in the process to develop and maintain Energy Technology Catalogue • Identify relevant technology • get valid data especially in terms of costs and efficiencies for now and for the future • Get acceptance of data July 19, 2017Danish Energy Agency Page 30
  30. 30. Organisation around the TC work DEA/TSO Project leader Steering committee Tech. 1: DEA Task leader Consultant Tech. spec. ref. group Tech. 2: TSO Task leader Consultant Tech. spec. ref. group … Reference group: -Energy branch org. -TC users -Researchers and industry
  31. 31. The process for making Danish TCs 1. Formulation of TC guideline • to ensure uniformity of the descriptions of the different technologies data and in some extent between technology categories. 2. Making the first draft of the Data collection, writing the text (Technology experts and ) 3. Deep dive workshop with technology experts and stakeholders resulting in a 2. draft 4. Public hearing of the technology chapters of the TCs • to validate data and ensure acceptance 5. Revision of data and text 6. Publication 7. Updating – back to 1(or 2).
  32. 32. Improving data quality and comparation Tools to compare between technologies and with data from ”last” version in a systematic way have been introduced ( kind of quality assurance) July 19, 2017Danish Energy Agency Page 33
  33. 33. Who is the best to make the TC Energy technology experts (expert in the specific technology) Energy consultants(technical) using energy models themselve July 19, 2017Danish Energy Agency Page 34
  34. 34. The value of international foreign TCs TCs can be used in other contexts, but: • May not be accepted by stakeholders • Costs of installations are likely to be different • Technology ‘preferences’ may differ • May not include the relevant technologies But a cooperation is seen as beneficial for all
  35. 35. Other Technologi catalogs? - possible cooperation ? IRENA IEA-NEA JRC Ecofys NVE (Norway) ELFORSK Sweden Frauenhofer July 19, 2017Danish Energy Agency Page 36
  36. 36. Thank you www.ens.dk July 19, 2017Danish Energy Agency Rikke Næraa (rin@ens.dk) Page 37 The Danish Energy Technology catalogues is public available and can be found: https ://ens.dk/en/our-services/projections-and- models/technology-data .
  37. 37. Details of some of the parameters -Environment in the data sheet Harmful emissions to air: • SOx degree of desulphuring (%) • NOX (=NO2 + NO) (g per GJ fuel) • PM2.5, P10, (g per GJ fuel) Greenhouse gas emissions • CH4 (g per GJ fuel) • N2O (g per GJ fuel) • BC (g per GJ fuel) CO2 emission values are not stated, as these depend only on the fuel, not the technology. July 19, 2017Danish Energy Agency Page 38
  38. 38. Details of some of the parameters - Operation and maintenance (O&M) costs Fixed O&M cost (€/MW/year): e.g. administration, operational staff, service agreements, property tax, insurance. Variable O&M costs (€/MWh): e.g. consumption of auxiliary materials (water, lubricants, fuel additives), treatment and disposal of residuals, spare parts Fuel costs are not included. July 19, 2017Danish Energy Agency Page 39
  39. 39. Detailed overview of the process week number 1 The conclusion of agreements and contracts 2 Start-up meeting on possible joint instruction session if more technologies at same time 3-7 consultants working -dialog with the consultant about external participants for the deep dive workshop (DD WS) -sending Invitations to external participants in deep dive workshop (DD WS) 8-9 Internal review - internal agreement on which changes should be made before the first draft could be send out 10-13 Consultant incorporates internal adjustments 14 First draft is sent to participants in WS 15 External deep dive workshop (DD WS) 15 the participating in WS is given a week to send in aditional coomments 16 Consultants adjust according to discussions and conclusions on WS and the comments submitted later(if in accordance with the conclusions at the WS) 17 Internal quick check of new versions of the chapters and sending out for external consultation 18-20 The 2. draft is send out for external review 21-22 Internal review of comments, dialog between consultants and ENDK and ENS. Agreement on which changes is included and how 23-24 Consultants adjust the document according to the agreed 25 Last reading and publication Example of the Danish process when a the specific technology have been chosen RMH(SLP) Udarbejdsels af teknologi katalog for net el, gas og fv(ENDK)
  40. 40. Choice of technologies Two approaches • Stakeholder approach • ‘Analytical approach’
  41. 41. Choice of technologies Stakeholder approach • Which to include: • Users of the TCs • Researchers • Industry July 19, 2017Danish Energy Agency Page 42
  42. 42. Choice of technologies ‘Analytical approach’: – Step 1: Identify technologies on the basis of inputs and outputs Ethanol Methanol Butanol HVO FAME Syn/FT diesel Feedstocks Sugar cane Straw BK (2) Residues forrest BK (2) TK(2) Algee TK(2) 5 TK(2) Corn stover BK (2),5 TK(2) TK(2) Bagasse BK (2) TK(2) Cellucosic residues (TK(2)) (TK(2)) (TK(2)) TK(2) BK(3) Miscanthus BK (2) Paper waste
  43. 43. Choice of technologies ‘Analytical approach’: – Step 2:Identify relevant technologies based on needs … . .
  44. 44. Choice of technologies ‘Analytical approach’: – Step 3: Identify feedstocks
  45. 45. Choice of technologies Other potential ‘filters’: • Location of feedstocks, consumers and infrastructure • … • Industrial branches to be prioritised • Certain knowhow to be utilised/supported Identify shortlist
  46. 46. Experience curves
  47. 47. Experience curves – cumulative production
  48. 48. Experience curves - data • Use other technologies as proxy • Compare with cost level for cheaper/more expensive technologies

×