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SATIMGE-2020

IEA-ETSAP
IEA-ETSAP

SATIMGE-2020 Bruno Merven, Faaiqa Hartley, Andrew Marquard, Fadiel Ahjum, Bryce McCall, Alison Hughes, Gregory Ireland, and Jesse Burton, Energy Systems Research Group, University of Cape Town

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SATIMGE-2020
Overview of Presentation
 Intro
 Recent Improvements
SATIM
Linked Model
Other
 Peek under the hood
 Some References
2.
Intro: SATIMGE
3
SATIMGE: Linked energy-economic
model
SATIM: Full
Sector TIMES
Model
SAGE:
Dynamic
Recursive
CGE Model
(GAMS)
Technology Mix
Emissions
Electricity Price
Electricity Production function
Expenditure on expansion plan
Production function of all activities (energy)
Consumption function of households (energy)
GDP
Welfare
Employment
GDP
Household income
SATIM SAGE
Energy/Climate Policy
IPPU
Waste
AFOLU
Allows us to do things like the trade off between
development and mitigation objectives
5.
CAT 1.5deg CAT 2deg
Recent Improvements in SATIM
6

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SATIMGE-2020

  • 2. Overview of Presentation  Intro  Recent Improvements SATIM Linked Model Other  Peek under the hood  Some References 2.
  • 4. SATIMGE: Linked energy-economic model SATIM: Full Sector TIMES Model SAGE: Dynamic Recursive CGE Model (GAMS) Technology Mix Emissions Electricity Price Electricity Production function Expenditure on expansion plan Production function of all activities (energy) Consumption function of households (energy) GDP Welfare Employment GDP Household income SATIM SAGE Energy/Climate Policy IPPU Waste AFOLU
  • 5. Allows us to do things like the trade off between development and mitigation objectives 5. CAT 1.5deg CAT 2deg
  • 7. Recent Improvements in TIMES model (SATIM): 2017 Energy Balance Calibration
  • 8. (1): BRT: Bus Rapid Transport; (2): Metro: Metropolitan i.e. intra‐city; (3): Used for Coastal & Inland Navigation; * Internal Combustion Engine; #: Battery Electric for Road Vehicles; HCV1: Medium commercial vehicle of 3 000– 7 500kg GVM; HCV 2: Heavy commercial vehicle of 7 501–12 000 kg GVM; HCV 6: Heavy commercial vehicle of 24 001–32 000 kg GVM. SUV: Sport Utility Vehicle (usually 4X4 and >1ton in mass) Recent Improvements in TIMES model (SATIM): Transport
  • 9. BF-BOF (New) DRI-EAF coal (New) Scrap-EAF (New) BF-BOF w. CCS (New) BF-BOF DRI-EAF coal Scrap-EAF MIDREX-CONARC KILN-EAF DRI-EAF gas (New) Existing technologies New technologies Coal Coking coal Gas Oil products Biomass Waste fuels Electricity (grid) Coke oven Onsite gen. or CHP Steel for domestic Energy efficiency improvements Onsite gen. or CHP (new) Coke oven (new) DRIElectrolyser EAF Iron storageH2 storage Steel for export Electricity (Solar PV) Recent Improvements in TIMES model (SATIM): I&S with H-DRI
  • 10. Recent Improvement in Linked Model 10
  • 11. Activity (sector: e.g. Power sector) Value Added Intermediates Labour Capital Coal Gas Biomass Other commodities and services Electricity Linked model Improvements: Power Sector SAGE 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 TWh Production Mix Biomass Coal Gas Hydro Imports Nuclear Oil PumpStorage CSP Battery_Cent Battery_Dist PV_Cent PV_Dist Wind SATIM … Eskom, REI4P 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 PV Wind Coal Nuclear PV Wind Coal Nuclear Jobs/TWh Jobs/GW
  • 12. Linked model Improvements: Links on the demand side Activity (sector: e.g. Iron and Steel) Value Added Intermediates Labour Capital Coal Gas Electricity Other commodities and services Steel BF-BOF (New) DRI-EAF coal (New) Scrap-EAF (New) BF-BOF w. CCS (New) BF-BOF DRI-EAF coal Scrap-EAF MIDREX-CONARC KILN-EAF DRI-EAF gas (New) Existing technologies New technologies Coal Coking coal Gas Oil products Biomass Waste fuels Electricity (grid) Coke oven Onsite gen. or CHP Steel Energy efficiency improvements Onsite gen. or CHP (new) Coke oven (new) Demand for Steel Coefficients for energy inputs In production function SAGE SATIM
  • 13. Linking CGE model to energy model necessary to capture technical change SATIM SAGE
  • 14. Linked model Improvements: Consumption behaviour in private transport 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Shareofhouseholdexpenditure Decile Transport fuel Passenger transport Vehicles Rubber products Food Other energy Other manufacturing Other services Other No Rebound Full Rebound
  • 15. Other Recent Improvement in SATIMGE 15
  • 16. Other Recent Improvements Inclusion of IPPU + Link to Waste and AFOLU models 16. SATIM: Full Sector Optimization Energy Model SAGE: Dynamic Recursive CGE Model Technology Mix Emissions Electricity Price Electricity Production function Expenditure on expansion plan Production function of all activities (energy) Consumption function of households (energy) GDP Welfare Employment GDP Household income Energy/Climate Policy IPPU Waste AFOLU
  • 17. Other Recent Improvements: Update of GDP and demand taking into account COVID 17. 200 250 300 350 400 450 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 TWhSentOut IRP2010 IRP2013 IRP2016 IRP2018 IRP2019 MTSO 2019 MTSAO 2020 high SATIMGE-2020 MTSAO 2020 low Actual
  • 18. Other Recent Improvements: Tableau Dashboard for viewing results: Comparison Across Multiple Datasets 18.
  • 19. Other Recent Improvements: Tableau Dashboard for viewing results: Multiple Zoom Levels 19.
  • 20. Other Recent Improvements: Tableau Dashboard for viewing results: Dashboards with multiple indicators 20.
  • 21. Other Recent Improvements: Git-based version control for model 21.
  • 22. Other Recent work in progress: Prelim Link to IRENA Flextool for high- temporal checks on power sector 22. 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 4000 4008 4016 4024 4032 4040 4048 4056 4064 4072 4080 4088 4096 4104 4112 4120 4128 4136 4144 4152 4160 4168 4176 4184 4192 4200 4208 4216 4224 4232 4240 4248 4256 4264 4272 4280 4288 4296 4304 4312 4320 4328 4336 4344 4352 4360 4368 4376 4384 4392 4400 4408 4416 4424 4432 4440 4448 4456 4464 4472 4480 4488 4496 MW Time Base Loss of load Hydro Coal Gas Wind PV Curtailed Excess load Battery PumpHydro Demand+exp.-imp.
  • 23. Peek under the hood 23
  • 24. Under the hood: SATIMGE-2020 components 24. SATIMGE- Control (GAMS) Useful Energy Demand Model Xcel Workbook Scenarios Xcel Workbook SAGE CGE model (GAMS) Waste Model Xcel Workbook AFOLU Model Xcel Workbook SATIM TIMES Model (GAMS) Sets and Maps Xcel Workbook Tableau Workbook Results Dump csv file GHG Inventory Xcel Workbook Energy Balance Xcel Workbook Sector Specific Xcel Workbooks Flextool Dispatch Model
  • 25. Under the hood: Hierarchical Sets 25.
  • 26. SATIMGE-2021?  Pathways to Net-Zero for South Africa by 2050-2060  Impacts of Climate Actions on households (TSITICA-ARUA)  Further Deep dives under DDP-BIICS 26.
  • 27. Presenter contact: Bruno Merven Energy Systems Research Group: University of Cape Town, South Africa email – brunomerven@gmail.com Thank you! We are open for collaboration and contributions for future work…
  • 28. 28.
  • 29. References: Past SATIM and SATIMGE projects 29. Year Project Link 2003 IEP-1 2006 EPSD-SA - IAEA http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/sites/default/files/image_tool/images/119/Papers-2006/Papers-2005/05Winkler-Alfstad-Howells- Energy_Policies_Phase2.pdf 2007 LTMS http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/sites/default/files/image_tool/images/119/Papers-2007/07Scenario_team-LTMS_Scenarios.pdf 2008 Costing 2020 RE Target http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/sites/default/files/image_tool/images/119/Papers-2008/08-Marquardetal-costing_a_2020_target.pdf 2010 Review of RE white paper report not published 2011 Low Emission Pathways report not published 2012 SANEDI-Transport https://open.uct.ac.za/handle/11427/16905 2013 NPC-Power Plan http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/sites/default/files/image_tool/images/119/Papers-2013/13ERC-Towards_new_power_plan.pdf 2014 UNU-WIDER SATIMGE beta 1 https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/wp2014-135.pdf 2015 UNEP Uncertainty in Baselines http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/sites/default/files/image_tool/images/119/Papers-2016/16-Merven-etal-Longterm_GHG_forecasts.pdf SDSN DDPP http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/sites/default/files/image_tool/images/119/Papers-2015/15-Altieri-etal- Pathways_to_deep_carbonisation.pdf SA Nuclear: Risk Analysis http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/sites/default/files/image_tool/images/119/Papers-2015/15-ERC- Nuclear_build_plan_Technical_report.pdf 2016 WB Thirsty Energy https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/26255/113464-WP-P144930-PUBLIC-W16014- eBook.pdf?sequence=5&isAllowed=y UNU-WIDER SATIMGE beta 2 https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/development-linked-modelling-framework-analysing-socioeconomic-impacts-energy-and 2017 Gas Study http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/sites/default/files/image_tool/images/119/Papers-2017/17-Merven-etal-Uptake_natural_gas_SA.pdf SANEDI-Transport 2 https://journals.assaf.org.za/index.php/jesa/article/view/4176 PAMS Final report not published - need to put draft released to stakeholders on our website 2018 SANEDI Flexible Demand https://www.ee.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Gregory-Ireland-University-of-Cape-Town-presentation.pdf (need to put report on our website) CER Coal-IPPs https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/ERC-Coal-IPP-Study-Report-Finalv2-290518.pdf SA-TIED Alt-IRP http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/sites/default/files/image_tool/images/119/Papers-2019/Alt%20IRP%20final%2007022019_2.pdf 2019 CoBenefits Study https://www.cobenefits.info/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/COBENEFITS-Study-South-Africa-Employment.pdf SA-TIED https://sa-tied.wider.unu.edu/climate 2020 DEFF-SSN 2030 NDC Update Report Due early 2021 2021 DEFF-SSN Net-Zero 2021 GCRF STITICA IKI DDP-BIICS 2021
  • 30. Policy briefs • Least-cost power pathway for South Africa • A just transition to cleaner energy in South Africa Key findings • There no longer exists a trade-off between economic development and power sector decarbonization in South Africa. • Shifting away from coal to RE does not negatively affect economic development  Protecting the coal-mining sector does not save jobs. • Investment in renewable power is the least-cost option for South Africa. • Artificially constraining the inclusion of solar PV and wind in the long term increases the electricity price and negatively affects economic development. • Removing constraints on renewable energy deployment leads to higher real GDP and increased net employment • A just transition plan is needed to protect workers and dependent communities https://sa-tied.wider.unu.edu/climate Working papers Work done under SA-TIED project