Presentation on IEA Net Zero Pathways/Roadmap Uwe Remme, IEA 16–17th november 2023, Turin, Italy, etsap meeting, etsap winter workshop, semi-annual meeting, november 2023, Politecnico di Torino Lingotto, Torino

1. Page 1
Uwe Remme, Head of Hydrogen and Alternative Fuels Unit
ETSAP Workshop, 17 November 2023
Net Zero Roadmap:
A Global Pathway to Keep the 1.5 °C Goal in Reach – 2023 Update

2. IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0. Page 2
Clean energy investment is widening the gap over fossil fuels
Global energy investment in clean energy and in fossil fuels
For every dollar invested in fossil fuels, about 1.8 dollars are now going into clean energy.
Five years ago, this ratio was one-to-one.
400
800
1 200
1 600
2 000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023e
Billion
USD
(2022)
Clean energy
Fossil fuels

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Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2023
Cross-cutting
Electricity Oil & natural gas supply Low-emission fuel supply
Transport Industry Buildings
Subsectors Technology deep dives
Heating
Space cooling
Lighting
Appliance & equipment
Buildings envelope
Heat pumps
Technology deep dives Infrastructure deep dives
Solar PV
Wind
Grid-scale storage
Smart grids
Subsectors
Methane emissions from oil
and gas operations
Flaring
Subsectors
Biofuels supply
Subsectors Technology deep dive Subsectors
Steel
Chemicals
Cement
Cars and vans
Trucks and buses
Rail
Aviation
International shipping
Electric vehicles
Energy system overview
Energy efficiency
Behavioural changes
Electrification
Renewables
Bioenergy
Hydrogen
Carbon capture
& storage
Innovation
Digitalisation
International collaboration
Technology deep dives
Direct air capture
Bioenergy with carbon capture & storage
CO2 capture & utilisation
Electrolysers
Infrastructure deep dives
CO2 transport & storage
Data centres & transmission networks
District heating
Aluminium
Paper
Light industry
Hydro
Nuclear
Demand response
Coal-fired electricity
Gas-fired electricity

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Carbon capture capacity
additions (Mt CO2)
Electric car sales
(million)
Clean energy growth is keeping the door to 1.5 ºC open
Spurred by policies and market competition, some key technologies have recently seen strong growth in deployment;
while other technologies will require much more rapid progress to be aligned with a Net Zero pathway.
2010 2015 2023e
5
10
15
2010 2015 2023e
10
20
30
2010 2015 2023e
120
240
360
Solar PV
Wind
Solar PV and wind capacity
additions (GW)

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Rapid decarbonisation needed in all sectors to reach net zero
Energy sector CO2 emissions are reduced 65% by 2035 and reach net zero by 2050,
with residual emissions of 1.7 Gt balanced by atmospheric removals of the same magnitude.
Energy sector gross emissions and removals, total net CO2 emissions, and net emissions by sector in the NZE Scenario

6. IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0. Page 6
We have the tools to go much faster
Emissions reductions by measure by 2030 in the NZE Scenario
Methane
Other
Efficiency and
electrification
Renewables
Energy-related greenhouse gas emissions peak by 2025 and decline by nearly 40% from today to 2030.
Proven solutions available today deliver over 80% of what is needed this decade.

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4 000
8 000
12 000
2022
2%
4%
6%
2022 2022
50
100
150
We have the tools to go much faster
x 2
-75%
x 3
Renewables installed
capacity (GW)
Annual energy intensity
improvement
Methane emissions from
fossil fuel operations (Mt)
2030 2030 2030
Energy-related greenhouse gas emissions peak by 2025 and decline by nearly 40% from today to 2030.
Proven solutions available today deliver over 80% of what is needed this decade.

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Integration of solar PV and wind is critical to the NZE Scenario…
…as their share in total generation in most regions reaches levels in 2030 seen only in a few countries today.
Share of total electricity generation from wind and solar PV by selected country/region in 2022 and in the NZE Scenario in 2030
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
European Union
United States
China
C & S America
World
India
Japan
Southeast Asia
Africa
Denmark
Ireland
Germany
Spain
European Union
United States
China
C & S America
World
India
Japan
Southeast Asia
Africa
Wind
Solar PV
2030
2022

9. IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0. Page 9
Almost half of global hydrogen supply is low-emission by 2030
Use of low-emissions hydrogen rises significantly to 70 Mt by 2030
and extends to new applications such as in aviation and shipping.
Global hydrogen demand in the NZE Scenario, 2022-2050

10. IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0. Page 10
Almost half of global hydrogen supply is low-emission by 2030
Use of low-emissions hydrogen rises significantly to 70 Mt by 2030
and extends to new applications such as in aviation and shipping.
Global hydrogen demand in the NZE Scenario, 2022-2050
Production Demand

11. IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0. Page 11
Modern bioenergy a key pillar of the clean energy transition
Share of modern bioenergy in total primary energy supply triples from 6% in 2022 to 18% by 2050.
Bioenergy demand in the NZE Scenario

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Clean technology supply chains present an industrial opportunity
If all announced projects proceed, solar PV manufacturing will exceed the 2030 level needed in the NZE Scenario,
and batteries manufacturing will get very close; other technologies see larger gaps.
Announced manufacturing project throughput and deployment of key technologies in the NZE Scenario
50% 100% 150%
Heat pumps
Wind
Electrolysers
Batteries
Solar PV
2022 Announced
projects
Increased use of
existing capacity
NZE 2030

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Innovation is already delivering new tools and lowering their costs
CO2 emission reductions by technology maturity in 2050 in the NZE Scenario of 2021
46%
Other
Under
development
On the
market
Other

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Innovation is already delivering new tools and lowering their costs
Clean energy innovation has been accelerating in the last few years,
yet more RD&D is needed to unlock the next generation of low-emissions technologies.
CO2 emission reductions by technology maturity in 2050 in the NZE Scenario of 2021
CO2 emission reductions by technology maturity in 2050 in the NZE Scenario of 2023
35%
Other
Under
development
On the
market

15. IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0. Page 15
A roadmap to net zero by 2050
10
20
30
40
Gt
CO
2
2020 2030 2040 2050
2025 2035 2045
Key global ambitions for this decade:
• Triple renewables capacity
• Double energy intensity improvements
• Cut methane from fossil fuels by 75%
• All new heavy industry capacity near-zero-emissions capable
Clean energy growth results in:
• No need for new unabated coal power
• No need for new oil and gas fields
Benchmarks for the Global Stocktake and NDCs:
• Advanced economies CO2 declines 80% collectively
• Emerging & developing economies CO2 declines 60% collectively
The energy system transformed:
• Power generation 90% renewable
• Nuclear capacity doubled
• Energy consumption 50% electrified
• Annual removals of 1.7 Gt CO2

16. IEA 2023. CC BY 4.0. Page 16