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Overview of Bioenergy Scenarios in TIMES modelling

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Overview of Bioenergy Scenarios in TIMES modelling

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Overview of Bioenergy Scenarios in TIMES modelling

  1. 1. Overview of Bioenergy Scenarios in TIMES modelling Prof. Brian Ó Gallachóir Chair IEA ETSAP TCP Executive Committee IEA-ETSAP IEA-Bioenergy Session, 72nd IEA ETSAP Workshop ETH Zurich, Dec 11 2017
  2. 2. What is IEA ETSAP? • One of 38 IEA Technology Collaboration Programmes www.iea.org/tcp/ • 41 years international cooperation on energy systems modelling (since first oil crisis) • Develop and maintain (MARKAL and TIMES) tools • Assist policy makers to build future energy pathways • Focus on key role of technology to meet goals • Biannual workshops and training • Collaborative research and analyses
  3. 3. www.iea-etsap.org IEA ETSAP Activity Unique network of Energy Modelling teams from almost 70 countries use MARKAL & TIMES models analyse energy systems and support decision making in energy policy.
  4. 4. Key Recent Developments • Kazakhstan and Australia have joined ETSAP as Contracting Parties • Enel Foundation and GE Energy have joined as sponsors. • Japan and USA have reengaged as active ETSAP participants • Modelling teams have formed in South Africa, Portugal, China and Pakistan • ETSAP providing training to Argentina 2016, Brazil 2017 and Mexico 2018 • Improved techniques for modelling interactions between energy systems and i) macro-economy, ii) power systems and iii) society • Joint workshops with IEEJ (Japan), Univ of Sao Paolo (Brazil), DoE Fossil Energy (USA) and IEA-GHG • TIMES listed as one of the four selected modelling tools in the UNFCC guide for preparing the national communications for non-Annex I parties (NDCs provide significant opportunity for capacity building).
  5. 5. > 100 publications per annum (including 50 peer‐review journal papers) from: i) Global Models: incl. IEA ETP model, original TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (TIAM), derived TIAM models, ETSAP-TIAM model ii) Regional Models: Pan‐European TIMES model, MARKAL‐TIMES Models for Europe, Asia and North America. iii) National Models of 32 countries (including China). iv) Sub‐National Models: Western China, Reunion Island (France), Lombardy (Italy), Pavia (Italy), and Kathmandu Valley (Nepal). v) Local Models for rural areas and cities in Austria, Germany and Italy, other bigger cities such as Madrid (Spain), Beijing, Guangdong and Shanghai (China), Johannesburg (South Africa) and New York City (United States). http://iea-etsap.org/finreport/ETSAP_Annex_XII_Final%20Report.pdf Multi-regional models IEA ETSAP Outputs
  6. 6. IEA ETSAP Book 2015 www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319165394 • Methodologies and case studies • Demonstrating use of energy systems models • Supporting energy and climate policy • Critical analysis of rich and varied applications • Includes diverse global case studies • Role of technology in energy systems 11,295 Chapter downloads - one of the top 25% most downloaded eBooks in the relevant SpringerLink eBook Collection in 2016
  7. 7. TIMES Model • linear programming bottom-up energy model • integrated model of the entire energy system • medium to long term analysis climate and energy policy analysis (20 - 100 years) • partial and dynamic equilibrium (perfect market) • optimal technology selection • minimize the total system cost • environmental constraints • system understanding of how technical challenges and techno- economic costs change – over time, and – for different levels of (mitigation or renewable or …) ambition
  8. 8. TIMES Model Given… • Technology data • End-use demands • Fuel Supply curves • Emission constraints • Other parameters – Discount rate – Time period definition – Time slice definition Models provide… • Technology investments • Technology activities • Emission trajectories • Adjusted demands • Marginal energy prices • Imports/Exports • Permit trading • Total system cost
  9. 9. © OECD/IEA 2017 ETP modelling framework End-use sectors Service demands TIMES models Industry Long-term simulation Buildings Mobility Model (MoMo) Transport Primary energy Conversion sectors Final energy Electricity Gasoline Diesel Natural gas Heat etc. Passenger mobility Freight transport … Space heating Water heating Lighting … Material demands … Renewables Fossil Nuclear Electricity T&D Fuel conversion Fuel/heat delivery ETP-TIMES Supply model (bottom-up optimisation) Electricity and heat generation • Four soft-linked models based on simulation and optimisation modelling methodologies • Model horizon: 2014-2060 in 5 year periods • World divided in 28-42 model regions/countries depending on sector • For power sector linkage with TIMES dispatch model for selected regions to analyse electricity system flexibility
  10. 10. © OECD/IEA 2017 Bioenergy-based technology routes in the supply-side model Agriculture residues, manure Primary bioenergy Forest residues Energy crops Municipal waste Final energy (solid, liquid and gaseous bioenergy; hydrogen) Agriculture End-use sectors Buildings Industry Transport Hydrogen Gasification (w/o and w CCS) Biofuel conversion processes Biogas • Anaerobic digestion • Gasification (w/o and w CCS) Bio-ethanol (w/o and w CCS) • Starch • Sugar cane • Lignocellulose Biodiesel • FAME (fatty acid methyl ester) • HVO (hydrogenated vegetable oils) • Fischer-Tropsch (w/o and w CCS) Solid bioenergy • Transport & processing • Charcoal production • Torrefaction Power sector technologies Electricity-only and CHP • ICE (internal combustion engine) • Open-cycle gas turbine • Combined-cycle turbine • Steam turbine (grate firing, FBC) • Biomass co-firing • BIGCC w/o and w CCS Heat boiler Electricity District heat Process heat From industry sector • Black liquor • Bagasse Global trade in liquid biofuels
  11. 11. © OECD/IEA 2017 0 10 20 30 40 2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 GtCO2 Efficiency 40% Renewables 35% Fuel switching 5% Nuclear 6% CCS 14% How far can technology take us? Pushing energy technology to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 could meet the mid-point of the range of ambitions expressed in Paris. Technology area contribution to global cumulative CO2 reductions Efficiency 40% Renewables 35% Fuel switching 5% Nuclear 6% CCS 14% Efficiency 34% Renewables 15% Fuel switching 18% Nuclear 1% CCS 32% Global CO2 reductions by technology area 2 degrees Scenario – 2DS Reference Technology Scenario – RTS Beyond 2 degrees Scenario – B2DS 0 200 400 Gt CO2 cumulative reductions in 2060 2060
  12. 12. Post Paris - Beyond 80% MitigationExample 1 IEA ETP • Current bioenergy use = 63 EJ per annum (half of which traditional bioenergy use) = 11% of final energy use globally • Sustainable bioenergy potential ~ 100 – 300 EJ per annum • In IEA ETP 2017, bioenergy use is focussed on sectors with limited decarbonisation options • IEA ETP 2017 estimates we need approx. 145 EJ p.a. bioenergy for • 2DS (2OC Scenario) with a focus on transport (30 EJ) with 2-3 EJ from biogas • B2DS (Below 2O Scenario) with a key need for negative emissions (i.e. bioenergy with CCS (BECCS))
  13. 13. Post Paris - Beyond 80% MitigationExample 1 IEA ETP Global bioenergy use 2015 – source IEA 46 EJ final demand from 63 EJ primary energy
  14. 14. © OECD/IEA 2017 Optimising the use of sustainable biomass Around 145 EJ of sustainable bioenergy is available by 2060 in IEA decarbonisation scenarios, but gets used differently between the 2DS and the B2DS. Bioenergy use by sector 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 RTS 2DS B2DS Today 2060 EJ Transport Industry Buildings Agriculture Fuel transformation w BECCS Fuel transformation Power w BECCS Power
  15. 15. Post Paris - Beyond 80% MitigationExample 1 IEA ETP Bioenergy contribution to final energy use Comparing 2DS and B2DS Source IEA ETP 2017
  16. 16. Post Paris - Beyond 80% MitigationExample 1 IEA ETP Elec gen from Bioenergy - Comparing 2DS and B2DS - Source IEA ETP 2017
  17. 17. Post Paris - Beyond 80% MitigationExample 1 IEA ETP IEA ETP 2017 2DS - global bioenergy use in transport
  18. 18. Post Paris - Beyond 80% MitigationExample 2 Ireland Chiodi A.; Gargiulo, Deane, J.P., Ó Gallachóir, B.P. 2015 The role of bioenergy in Ireland’s low carbon future – is it sustainable? Journal of Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems 3(2), pp 196-216. Czyrnek-Delêtre M., Chiodi A.; Murphy J.D.; Ó Gallachóir B. 2016 Impact of including land use change emissions from biofuels on meeting GHG emissions reduction targets - the example of Ireland Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy 18 Pages 1745-1758
  19. 19. Post Paris - Beyond 80% MitigationExample 2 Ireland Hypothesis Objectives Impact of LUC emissions on the Irish energy system is significant Analyse current and future domestic bioenergy sources and bioenergy trade networks Implement DLUC and ILUC emissions factors for all bioenergy commodities in the Irish TIMES Assess the implications of above for Irish energy system
  20. 20. Post Paris - Beyond 80% MitigationExample 2 Ireland DLUC emissions Based on literature Exploratory DLUC assumptions EU CAP Corn, sugar beet, wheat, oilseed rape domestic and from EU Sugar beet and sugarcane ethanol, oilseed and palm biodiesel from outside EU Conversion of grassland to arable land is restricted Zero DLUC Conservative approach Miscanthus and willow : as perennial they accumulate soil organic carbon Negative DLUC
  21. 21. Post Paris - Beyond 80% MitigationExample 2 Ireland ILUC emissions ILUC assumptions Based on literature Controversial No or low ILUC emissions ILUC+ optimistic High ILUC emissions ILUC- conservative No widely accepted/used methodology
  22. 22. Post Paris - Beyond 80% MitigationExample 2 Ireland ILUC+ and ILUC- Tropical rainforest converted to pastureGrass biomethane ILUC + ILUC - Abundance of grass Biomes converted to barley Miscanthus, willow, wheat ethanol and oilseed biodiesel Biomes converted to barley Biomes converted to cropland Oilseed biodiesel, sugar beet and wheat ethanol Biomes converted to cropland Tropical rainforest converted to pasture Sugarcane ethanol Cerrado grassland converted to pasture Lowland rainforest to croplandPalm oil biodiesel Peatland rainforest to cropland Forest and grassland to cropland Corn ethanol Grassland converted to cropland (non EU)
  23. 23. Post Paris - Beyond 80% MitigationExample 2 Ireland 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 2010 CO2-80 CO2-80DLUC CO2-80ILUC+ CO2-80ILUC- CO2-80 CO2-80DLUC CO2-80ILUC+ CO2-80ILUC- ktoe . 2030 . 2050 ktoe Other Renewables Biogas Bioliquids Solid biomass Gas Oil Coal Total Primary Energy Requirement Increase in bioenergy
  24. 24. Post Paris - Beyond 80% MitigationExample 2 Ireland 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 2010 CO2-80 CO2-80DLUC CO2-80ILUC+ CO2-80ILUC- CO2-80 CO2-80DLUC CO2-80ILUC+ CO2-80ILUC- ktoe . 2030 . 2050 ktoe Other Renewables Biogas Bioliquids Solid biomass Gas Oil Coal Total Primary Energy Requirement Increase in efficiency Reduction in bioenergy
  25. 25. Overview of Bioenergy Scenarios in TIMES modelling Prof. Brian Ó Gallachóir Chair IEA ETSAP TCP Executive Committee IEA-ETSAP IEA-Bioenergy Session, 72nd IEA ETSAP Workshop ETH Zurich, Dec 11 2017
  26. 26. Cost and emissions balance GDP Process energy Heating area Population Light Communication Power Person kilometers Freight kilometers Service Demands Coal processing Refineries Power plants and Transportation CHP plants and district heat networks Gas network Industry Commercial and Public Services Households Transportation Final energyPrimary energy Domestic sources Imports Demands Energyprices,Resourceavailability TIMES Model
  27. 27. ETSAP TIAM • Global model (ETSAP-TIAM) now available in addition to modelling tools (TIMES) • 15 Region global TIMES model available to ETSAP Contracting Parties • Developed by GERAD and currently updated by ETSAP Collaborative Project • Includes several thousand technologies and models climate forcing
  28. 28. Maximise net social surplusNet Social Surplus
  29. 29. Minimising Total System Cost ∑∈ − •+= YEARSy yREFYR yr yANNCOSTdNPV )()1( , where: NPV is the net present value of the total cost (the OBJ); ANNCOST(y) is the total annual cost in year y; dr,y is the general discount rate; REFYR is the reference year for discounting (2005); YEARS is the set of years for which there are costs in the horizon Minimise System Costs
  30. 30. • Capital Costs incurred for investing and dismantling plant; • Fixed and variable Operation and Maintenance (O&M) Costs; • Costs for exogenous imports and for domestic resource production; • Revenues from exogenous exports; • Delivery costs for required fuels consumed by plant; • Taxes and subsidies associated with fuel flows and plant activities; • Salvage value of plant at the end of the planning horizon; • Welfare loss resulting from reduced end-use demands. Total System Cost
  31. 31. IEA ETSAP in summary … • ≥ Two workshops per year, one organized together with IEW • 3-5 TIMES model training sessions around the world • approx 200 teams involved from the whole world • access to support and discussion forums • jobs within TIMES modelling • new tools and analyses are shared • close collaboration with IEA, IRENA, Worldbank, etc. • documentation: – Annex report - http://www.iea-etsap.org/finreport/ETSAP_Annex_XII_Final%20Report.pdf – Meetings - http://www.iea-etsap.org/index.php/community/official-documents – Projects - http://www.iea-etsap.org/index.php/etsap-projects – Model generator & user interface - http://www.iea-etsap.org/index.php/documentation – Technologies - http://www.iea-etsap.org/index.php/energy-technology-data
  32. 32. Depicting reality in an ESM Reality Model structure Mathematical description P P O P Q P BHKW S BHKW Coal BHKW BHKW CO Coal BHKW BHKW H BHKW Coal BHKW _ _ _ _ _ _ _ = ⋅ = ⋅ = ⋅ η ε η 2 2 Model results 0 10 20 30 PJ 1990 2000 2010 2020 Household Transport Industry Data 4a Entwicklung der Kernenergiekapazitäten (Netto-Engpassleistung am Jahresende) in Deutschland bis 2030 (Basis Energieträger Einheit 2000 2010e 2020e 2025e 2030e 4a.1 Kernenergie MW 21273 16340 1269 0 0 4b Entwicklung der Kernenergiekapazitäten (Netto-Engpassleistung am Jahresende) in Deutschland bis 2030 (Basis Energieträger Einheit 2000 2010e 2020e 2025e 2030e 4b.1 Kernenergie MW 21273 17125 9308 0 0 5 Entwicklung der Kapazitäten und der Erzeugung aus regenerativen Energiequellen (Mindestmengen) in Deutsch Energieträger Einheit 2000 2010e 2020e 2025e 2030e 5.1a Sonne GW 0,11 0,71 1,31 1,61 1,91 5.1b Sonne TWh p.a. 0,07 0,60 1,00 1,28 1,52 5.2a Wind GW 6,11 23,10 25,60 26,90 28,10 5.2b Wind TWh p.a. 9,50 43,54 57,96 64,02 70,08 5.3a Biomasse GW 0,59 0,80 1,00 1,10 1,20 5.3b Biomasse TWh p.a. 1,63 2,55 3,60 4,20 4,80 6 Energie- und Umweltpolitik in Deutschland bis 2030 Größe Einheit 2000 2010e 2020e 2025e 2030e 6,1 CO2-Zertifikatehandel (Strom u. Industrie) nein ja ja ja ja 6,2 CO2-Zertifikatepreis €2000/tCO2 - 3,00 9,00 12,00 14,00 Model Scope Optimiser (CPLEX/MINOS/CON OPT/XPRESS/etc.) Cross-checking results with reality. Feedback
  33. 33. ETSAP Tools

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